ctDNA improves prognostic prediction for patients with relapsed/refractory MM receiving ixazomib, lenalidomide, and dexamethasone.

ABSTRACT: It remains elusive how driver mutations, including those detected in circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), affect prognosis in relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM). Here, we performed targeted-capture sequencing using bone marrow plasma cells (BMPCs) and ctDNA of 261 RRMM cases uniformly treated with ixazomib, lenalidomide, and dexamethasone in a multicenter, prospective, observational study. We detected 24 and 47 recurrently mutated genes in BMPC and ctDNA, respectively. In addition to clonal hematopoiesis-associated mutations, varying proportion of driver mutations, particularly TP53 mutations (59.2% of mutated cases), were present in only ctDNA, suggesting their subclonal origin. In univariable analyses, ctDNA mutations of KRAS, TP53, DIS3, BRAF, NRAS, and ATM were associated with worse progression-free survival (PFS). BMPC mutations of TP53 and KRAS were associated with inferior PFS, whereas KRAS mutations were prognostically relevant only when detected in both BMPC and ctDNA. A total number of ctDNA mutations in the 6 relevant genes was a strong prognostic predictor (2-year PFS rates: 57.3%, 22.7%, and 0% for 0, 1, and ≥2 mutations, respectively) and independent of clinical factors and plasma DNA concentration. Using the number of ctDNA mutations, plasma DNA concentration, and clinical factors, we developed a prognostic index, classifying patients into 3 categories with 2-year PFS rates of 57.9%, 28.6%, and 0%. Serial analysis of ctDNA mutations in 94 cases revealed that TP53 and KRAS mutations frequently emerge after therapy. Thus, we clarify the genetic characteristics and clonal architecture of ctDNA mutations and demonstrate their superiority over BMPC mutations for prognostic prediction in RRMM. This study is a part of the C16042 study, which is registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT03433001.

Changes in alcohol intake and serum urate changes: longitudinal analyses of annual medical examination database.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the established cross-sectional association between alcohol intake and serum urate (SU), its longitudinal association remains unknown. This study aimed to determine whether changes in alcohol intake have a clinically relevant association with SU change. METHOD: We conducted retrospective analyses using systematically collected annual medical examination data from October 2012 to October 2022 in a Japanese preventive medicine centre. The exposure was changes in alcohol intake between two consecutive visits. The association of SU changes with alcohol intake changes was estimated by mixed-effect linear regression with adjustment for relevant covariates. RESULTS: We analysed 63 486 participants (median age, 47.0 years; 55% women; 58.6% regular alcohol drinkers with a median of 1.4 drinks/day) with 370 572 visits. The median SU level was 5.3 mg/dL, and 506 (0.8%) participants had diagnoses of gout or hyperuricemia without medication use during the study period. Decreasing one daily alcohol intake had a clinically small association with SU changes (-0.019 (95% CI: -0.021 to -0.017) mg/dL). Beer had the largest association with SU (-0.036 (95% CI: -0.039 to -0.032) mg/dL for one beer decrease). Complete discontinuation of any alcohol from a mean of 0.8 drinks/day was associated with -0.056 mg/dL (95% CI: -0.068 to -0.043) decrease in SU; the association became larger in hyperuricemic participants (-0.110 mg/dL (95% CI: -0.154 to -0.066) for alcohol discontinuation from a mean of 1.0 drinks/day). CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed changes in alcohol intake had small associations with SU change at the general Japanese population level. Complete discontinuation of alcohol in hyperuricemic participants had only modest improvement in SU.

A prospective, multicenter, observational study of ixazomib plus lenalidomide-dexamethasone in patients with relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma in Japan.

Real-world studies permit inclusion of a more diverse patient population and provide more information on the effectiveness of treatments used in routine clinical practice. This prospective, multicenter, observational study investigated the effectiveness and safety of ixazomib plus lenalidomide and dexamethasone (IRd) in 295 patients with relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM) in routine clinical practice in Japan. Patients had a median age of 74 years, 80.0% were aged ≥ 65 years, 42.0% had received ≥ 3 lines of prior treatment, and 28.5% were "frail" according to the International Myeloma Working Group frailty score. After a median follow-up of 25.0 months, median progression-free survival (PFS) was 15.3 (95% CI 12.4-19.5) months, while median overall survival was not reached. The overall response rate was 53.9%, and 31.5% of patients had a very good partial response or better. In the subgroup analysis, median PFS was better in patients with 1 versus 2 or ≥ 3 lines of prior treatment (29.0 vs 19.2 or 6.9 months) and paraprotein versus clinical relapse (16.0 vs 7.9 months), but median PFS was not notably affected by frailty score or age group. Dose adjustment was more frequent among patients aged > 75 years, especially early after IRd treatment initiation. Treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) of any grade occurred in 84.4% of patients and 24.7% of patients discontinued treatment due to TEAEs; no new safety concerns were found. These findings suggest that oral IRd triplet regimen is an effective and tolerable treatment option for RRMM patients in real-world settings outside of clinical trials.ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03433001; Date of registration: 14 February 2018.

Confounder Selection and Sensitivity Analyses to Unmeasured Confounding from Epidemiological and Statistical Perspectives.

In observational studies, identifying and adjusting for a sufficient set of confounders is crucial for accurately estimating the causal effect of the exposure on the outcome. Even in studies with large sample sizes, which typically benefit from small variances in estimates, there is a risk of producing estimates that are precisely inaccurate if the study suffers from systematic errors or biases, including confounding bias. To date, several approaches have been developed for selecting confounders. In this article, we first summarize the epidemiological and statistical approaches to identify a sufficient set of confounders. Particularly, we introduce the modified disjunctive cause criterion as one of the most useful approaches, which involves controlling for any pre-exposure covariate that affects the exposure, outcome, or both. It then excludes instrumental variables but includes proxies for the shared common cause of exposure and outcome. Statistical confounder selection is also useful when dealing with a large number of covariates, even in studies with small sample sizes. After introducing several approaches, we discuss some pitfalls and considerations in confounder selection, such as the adjustment for instrumental variables, intermediate variables, and baseline outcome variables. Lastly, as it is often difficult to comprehensively measure key confounders, we introduce two statistics, E-value and Robustness value, for assessing sensitivity to unmeasured confounders. Illustrated examples are provided using the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey Epidemiologic Follow-up Study. Integrating these principles and approaches will enhance our understanding of confounder selection and facilitate better reporting and interpretation of future epidemiological studies.

Trends in inpatient orthopedic surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: a nationwide data study.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in substantial morbidity and mortality globally. The National Database of Health Insurance Claims and Specific Health Checkups of Japan (NDB) covers 99.9% of health insurance claim receipts by general practitioners. The purpose of this study is to investigate the nationwide number of inpatient orthopedic surgeries in Japan during the effect of state of emergency (SoE) due to COVID-19. METHOD: The NDB has been publicly available since 2014. We retrospectively reviewed the NDB from April 2019 to March 2022. We gathered the monthly number of all inpatient orthopedic surgeries. We also classified orthopedic surgeries into the following 11 categories by using K-codes, Japanese original surgery classification: fracture, arthroplasty, spine, arthroscopy, hardware removal, hand, infection/amputation, ligament/tendon, tumor, joint, and others. By using the average number from April to December 2019 as the reference period, we investigated the increase or decrease orthopedic surgeries during the pandemic period. RESULTS: The NDB showed that the average number of total inpatient orthopedic surgeries during the reference period was 115,343 per month. In May 2020, monthly inpatient orthopedic surgeries decreased by 29.6% to 81,169 surgeries, accounting for 70.3% of the reference period. The second SoE in 2021 saw no change, while the third and fourth SoEs showed slight decreases compared to the reference period. Hardware removal and tumor surgeries in May 2020 decreased to 45.3% and 45.5%, respectively, while fracture surgeries had relatively small decreases. CONCLUSION: According to NDB, approximately 1.3 million orthopedic inpatient surgeries were performed or claimed in a year in Japan. In May 2020, the first SoE period of the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of inpatient orthopedic surgeries in Japan decreased by 30%. Meanwhile, the decrease was relatively small during the SoE periods in 2021.

Efficacy and Safety of Ixazomib Plus Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone Following Injectable PI-Based Therapy in Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma.

This nationwide, multicenter, open-label, single-arm study evaluated the efficacy and safety of the oral proteasome inhibitor (PI), ixazomib plus lenalidomide (LEN) and dexamethasone (DEX) (IRd) following injectable PI-based therapy for relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM). Of 45 patients enrolled, 36 patients received IRd after achieving at least a minor response to 3 cycles of bortezomib or carfilzomib plus LEN + DEX (VRd, n=6; KRd, n=30). At median follow-up of 20.8 months, the 12-month event-free survival rate (primary endpoint) was 49% (90% CI: 35.9-62.0), counting 11 events of progressive disease/death, 8 dropouts and 4 missing response data. The 12-month progression-free survival (PFS) rate by Kaplan-Meier analysis (dropouts as censoring) was 74% (95% CI: 56-86). Median PFS and time to next treatment (95% CI) were 29.0 (21.3-NE) and 32.3 (14.9-35.4) months, respectively; median OS was not evaluable. The overall response rate was 73%, and 42% of patients had a very good partial response or better. Frequent (≥10% incidence) grade ≥3 treatment emergent adverse events were decreased neutrophil and platelet counts (n=7 [16%] each). Two deaths occurred (one during KRd treatment and one during IRd treatment), both due to pneumonia. IRd following injectable PI-based therapy was tolerable and efficacious in RRMM patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03416374; Date of registration: January 31, 2018.

Comparative effectiveness of tocilizumab vs standard care in patients with severe COVID-19-related pneumonia: a retrospective cohort study utilizing registry data as a synthetic control.

BACKGROUND: The severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections has led to the development of several therapeutic agents, with tocilizumab becoming increasingly used to treat patients with COVID-19-related pneumonia. This study compared the use of tocilizumab treatment with the standard of care (SOC) to determine its efficacy against severe COVID-19-related pneumonia in Japan. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was designed to evaluate the efficacy of tocilizumab in two different databases: the JA42434 single-arm study and COVID-19 Registry Japan (COVIREGI-JP), with a synthetic control group from the COVIREGI-JP cohort as a benchmark for the tocilizumab group. The study's primary objective was to evaluate the efficacy of tocilizumab in treating severe COVID-19-related pneumonia compared to the SOC among patients included in the above two databases. The SOC group was extracted as the synthetic control group using exact matching and a propensity score matching in sequence per subject. As a secondary objective, the efficacy of tocilizumab compared to the SOC was evaluated exclusively among patients included in the COVIREGI-JP database. In each objective, the primary endpoint was defined as the time to discharge or the status of awaiting discharge. RESULTS: For the primary endpoint, the hazard ratio (HR) of the tocilizumab group against the SOC group was 1.070 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.565-2.028). The median time from Study Day 1 to discharge or the state of awaiting discharge was 15 days in the tocilizumab group and 16 days in the SOC group. The HRs for the secondary endpoints, namely, time to improvement in the clinical state, time to clinical failure, and time to recovery, were 1.112 (95% CI: 0.596-2.075), 0.628 (95% CI: 0.202-1.953), and 1.019 (95% CI: 0.555-1.871), respectively. Similarly, the HR of the primary endpoint for the secondary objective was 0.846 (95% CI: 0.582-1.230). CONCLUSIONS: Tocilizumab did not demonstrate a positive effect on time to discharge or the state of awaiting discharge. Furthermore, no statistically significant differences in other clinical outcomes, such as time to improvement in the clinical state, time to clinical failure, and time to recovery, were observed among the groups.

Association between cancer history and second-generation drug-eluting stent thrombosis: insights from the REAL-ST registry.

BACKGROUND: Cancer-associated thrombosis is a frequent complication of cancer; however, little evidence is available regarding the association between cancer history and coronary artery stent thrombosis (ST). We aimed to investigate the relationship between cancer history and second-generation drug-eluting stent thrombosis (G2-ST). METHODS: From the REAL-ST (Retrospective Multicenter Registry of ST After First- and Second-Generation Drug-Eluting Stent Implantation) registry, this study evaluated 1265 patients (G2- ST cases, n = 253; controls, n = 1012) with cancer-related information available. RESULTS: The prevalence of patients with cancer history was higher (12.3% vs. 8.5%, p = 0.065), and that of currently diagnosed and currently treated cancer was significantly higher in ST cases than controls (3.6% vs. 1.4%, p = 0.021; 3.2% vs. 1.3%, p = 0.037, respectively). Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that cancer history was associated with late ST (odds ratio [OR]: 2.80, 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.92-8.55, p = 0.071) and very late ST (OR: 2.40, 95% CI: 1.02-5.65, p = 0.046), but not with early ST (OR: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.51-2.00, p = 0.97). During the median follow-up period of 872 days after the index ST events, patients with cancer history showed a higher mortality than those without, among both ST cases (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.93, 95% CI: 1.06-3.51, p = 0.031) and controls (HR: 1.93, 95% CI: 1.09-3.40, p = 0.023). CONCLUSION: A post hoc analysis of REAL-ST registry revealed that patients with G2-ST had a higher prevalence of currently diagnosed and currently treated cancer. Notably, cancer history was associated with the occurrence of late and very late ST, but not with early ST.

Changes in urinary albumin as a surrogate for kidney disease progression in people with type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear whether urinary albumin changes can predict subsequent kidney disease progression in people with diabetes. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 4570 Japanese adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D). The exposure was changes in urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) over 3 years, categorized into three categories: ≤ - 30%, minor change, or ≥ 30%. During the exposure period, eGFR decline was also examined and categorized into two categories: < 30% or ≥ 30% decline. The primary outcome was the composite of eGFR halving or initiation of kidney replacement therapy (KRT). The secondary outcome was the initiation of KRT. RESULTS: In the spline model, the hazard ratio for the primary outcome increased linearly on the log2 scale of UACR changes. When classified into six groups based on the categories of UACR changes and eGFR decline, people with a ≤ - 30% UACR change and < 30% eGFR decline had a 38% lower incidence of the outcome compared to those with a minor UACR change and < 30% eGFR decline. Meanwhile, the risk in those with a ≤ - 30% UACR change and ≥ 30% eGFR decline was 2.89 times. People with a ≥ 30% UACR change had the higher risk, regardless of whether a ≥ 30% eGFR decline occurred. Similar results were obtained in the secondary outcome. CONCLUSIONS: UACR changes can be a useful surrogate for kidney disease progression in people with T2D. However, when setting a decrease in UACR as the surrogate, it may be necessary to simultaneously evaluate kidney function decline.

Association between prolonged weekly duty hours and self-study time among residents: a cross-sectional study.

PURPOSE: In 2024, the Japanese government will enforce a maximum 80-hour weekly duty hours (DHs) regulation for medical residents. Although this reduction in weekly DHs could increase the self-study time (SST) of these residents, the relationship between these two variables remains unclear. The aim of the study was to investigate the relationship between the SST and DHs of residents in Japan. METHODS: In this nationwide cross-sectional study, the subjects were candidates of the General Medicine In-Training Examination in the 2020 academic year. We administered questionnaires and categorically asked questions regarding daily SST and weekly DHs during the training period. To account for hospital variability, proportional odds regression models with generalized estimating equations were used to analyse the association between SST and DHs. RESULTS: Of the surveyed 6117 residents, 32.0% were female, 49.1% were postgraduate year-1 residents, 83.8% were affiliated with community hospitals, and 19.9% worked for ≥80 hours/week. Multivariable analysis revealed that residents working ≥80 hours/week spent more time on self-study than those working 60-70 hours/week. Conversely, residents who worked <50 hours/week spent less time on self-study than those who worked 60-70 hours/week. The factors associated with longer SST were sex, postgraduate year, career aspiration for internal medicine, affiliation with community hospitals, academic involvement, and well-being. CONCLUSION: Residents with long DHs had longer SSTs than residents with short DHs. Future DH restrictions may not increase but rather decrease resident SST. Effective measures to encourage self-study are required, as DH restrictions may shorten SST.

Predictors of long-term mortality among perioperative survivors of Fontan operation.

AIMS: The criteria for 'good' Fontan haemodynamics have been poorly defined in relation to long-term outcomes. The aim of this study was to identify the risk factors for mortality among haemodynamic parameters obtained early after the Fontan operation. METHODS AND RESULTS: Clinical data of all perioperative survivors of the Fontan operation performed before 2011, from nine institutions, were collected through a retrospective chart review. In total, 1260 patients were included. The median age at the time of Fontan operation was 3.6 years. Post-operative cardiac catheterization was conducted in 1117 patients at a median period of 1.0 years after the operation. During the median follow-up period of 10.2 years, 107 patients died. The mortality rates at 10, 20, and 25 years after the operation were 5%, 12%, and 22%, respectively. On multivariable analysis, older age at the time of the operation {≥15 years, hazard ratio (HR) [95% confidence interval (CI)]: 3.2 (1.7-5.9)} and haemodynamic parameters obtained at post-operative catheterization, such as low ejection fraction [<30%, HR (95% CI): 7.5 (3.2-18)], low systemic oxygen saturation [<80%, HR (95% CI): 3.8 (1.6-9.1)], high central venous pressure [≥16 mmHg, HR (95% CI): 2.3 (1.3-3.9)], and low mean systemic arterial pressure [<60 mmHg, HR (95% CI): 3.0 (1.4-6.2)] were identified as independent predictors of mortality. The predictive model based on these parameters had a c-index of 0.75 at 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: Haemodynamic parameters obtained at a median period of 1.0 years, post-operatively, can accurately identify patients with a high mortality risk, who may need intensive management to improve long-term outcomes.

The influence of COVID-19 epidemic on the number of orthopaedic surgeries in Japan.

BACKGROUND: There is limited data on the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on the number of orthopaedic surgeries in Japan. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide hospital survey asking for the monthly number of orthopaedic surgeries performed at each facility from January 2019 to June 2021. Those facilities that had performed at least 100 surgeries in 2019 were included for analyses. The facilities were further grouped by prefecture and by hospital characteristics. A brief health economic evaluation was also performed. Risk ratios were compared using univariate analyses with P < 0.05 considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Questionnaire was sent to 1988 hospitals with 1671 hospitals (84%) responding. The survey data indicated a total number of orthopaedic surgeries decreased in 2020 compared to 2019 (1,061,541 vs 1,119,955 P < 0.01), and also for the first six months of 2021 compared to the same period in 2019 (530,388 vs 550,378 P < 0.01). In 2020, over 50% of all facilities in nearly all of the prefectures saw a decline in surgical procedures. The risk of incurring more than a 25% decease in the number of surgeries was significantly higher in 2020 for class I designated medical institutions compared to those that were not designated for any types of infectious diseases among the institutions with a tertiary emergency medical center in 2020 (crude risk ratio 2.9: 95% CI 1.2-7.4, p = 0.02) and in 2021 (crude risk ratio 4.7: 95% CI 1 0.9-12.1, p < 0.01). The estimated total nationwide decrease of revenue were in the range of approximately ¥29.2 to ¥116.8 billion per year for orthopaedic surgeries alone. CONCLUSION: There was a statistically significant decrease in the number of orthopaedic surgeries in Japan. The magnitude of the decline varied by prefectures and hospital characteristics, with the greater impact imposed on medical institutions with higher classification functions. The estimated immediate health economic impact was sizable.

Kidney outcomes and all-cause mortality in people with type 2 diabetes exhibiting non-albuminuric kidney insufficiency.

AIM/HYPOTHESIS: It remains unclear whether people with diabetes exhibiting non-albuminuric kidney insufficiency have higher risk of kidney function decline and mortality compared with those exhibiting preserved kidney function without albuminuria. Furthermore, information regarding the incidence of albuminuria in people with this unique phenotype is sparse. Here, we aimed to elucidate the risk of the kidney outcomes and all-cause mortality in people with diabetes exhibiting non-albuminuric kidney insufficiency. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, 8320 Japanese adults with type 2 diabetes were classified into four groups based on the presence of albuminuria and kidney insufficiency at baseline, defined as urinary albumin/creatinine ratio of equal to or above 30 mg/g and eGFR of less than 60 ml min-1 1.73 m-2, respectively. The primary composite kidney endpoint was a 50% decrease in eGFR from baseline or the initiation of kidney replacement therapy. The annual percentage change in eGFR slope and progression of albuminuria category were evaluated as the secondary and tertiary kidney endpoints, respectively. All-cause death was also set as the endpoint. RESULTS: Compared with people exhibiting non-albuminuric preserved kidney function, those with non-albuminuric kidney insufficiency had the higher risk for the primary kidney endpoint (HR 4.1; 95% CI 2.5, 6.7; p < 0.001), steep percentage change in eGFR slope (-1.96%/year vs -1.36%/year, p < 0.001), incidence of albuminuria (HR 2.1; 1.7, 2.6; p < 0.001) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.5; 1.2, 2.0; p = 0.003). In the sensitivity analyses treating the incidence of albuminuria as a competing risk, people with non-albuminuric kidney insufficiency still had higher risk for the primary kidney endpoint and all-cause mortality than those with non-albuminuric preserved kidney function (subdistribution HR 2.8; 1.4, 5.6; p = 0.004; and 1.6; 1.1, 2.2; p = 0.014, respectively). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: People with type 2 diabetes exhibiting non-albuminuric kidney insufficiency had poorer kidney outcomes and life prognosis than those exhibiting non-albuminuric preserved kidney function.

Optimal target of LDL cholesterol level for statin treatment: challenges to monotonic relationship with cardiovascular events.

BACKGROUND: Aggressive lipid lowering by high-dose statin treatment has been established for the secondary prevention of coronary artery disease (CAD). Regarding the low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level, however, the "The lower is the better" concept has been controversial to date. We hypothesized that there is an optimal LDL-C level, i.e., a "threshold" value, below which the incidence of cardiovascular events is no longer reduced. We undertook a subanalysis of the REAL-CAD study to explore whether such an optimal target LDL-C level exists by a novel analysis procedure to verify the existence of a monotonic relationship. METHODS: For a total of 11,105 patients with CAD enrolled in the REAL-CAD study, the LDL-C level at 6 months after randomization and 5-year cardiovascular outcomes were assessed. We set the "threshold" value of the LDL-C level under which the hazards were assumed to be constant, by including an artificial covariate max (0, LDL-C - threshold) in the Cox model. The analysis was repeated with different LDL-C thresholds (every 10 mg/dl from 40 to 100 mg/dl) and the model fit was assessed by log-likelihood. RESULTS: For primary outcomes such as the composite of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal ischemic stroke, and unstable angina requiring emergency hospitalization, the model fit assessed by log-likelihood was best when a threshold LDL-C value of 70 mg/dl was assumed. And in the model with a threshold LDL-C ≥ 70 mg/dl, the hazard ratio was 1.07 (95% confidence interval 1.01-1.13) as the LDL-C increased by 10 mg/dl. Therefore, the risk of cardiovascular events decreased monotonically until the LDL-C level was lowered to 70 mg/dl, but when the level was further reduced, the risk was independent of LDL-C. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis model suggests that a "threshold" value of LDL-C might exist for the secondary prevention of cardiovascular events in Japanese patients with CAD, and this threshold might be 70 mg/dl for primary composite outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov . Unique identifier: NCT01042730.

Bias amplification in the g-computation algorithm for time-varying treatments: a case study of industry payments and prescription of opioid products.

BACKGROUND: It is often challenging to determine which variables need to be included in the g-computation algorithm under the time-varying setting. Conditioning on instrumental variables (IVs) is known to introduce greater bias when there is unmeasured confounding in the point-treatment settings, and this is also true for near-IVs which are weakly associated with the outcome not through the treatment. However, it is unknown whether adjusting for (near-)IVs amplifies bias in the g-computation algorithm estimators for time-varying treatments compared to the estimators ignoring such variables. We thus aimed to compare the magnitude of bias by adjusting for (near-)IVs across their different relationships with treatments in the time-varying settings. METHODS: After showing a case study of the association between the receipt of industry payments and physicians' opioid prescribing rate in the US, we demonstrated Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the extent to which the bias due to unmeasured confounders is amplified by adjusting for (near-)IV across several g-computation algorithms. RESULTS: In our simulation study, adjusting for a perfect IV of time-varying treatments in the g-computation algorithm increased bias due to unmeasured confounding, particularly when the IV had a strong relationship with the treatment. We also found the increase in bias even adjusting for near-IV when such variable had a very weak association with unmeasured confounders between the treatment and the outcome compared to its association with the time-varying treatments. Instead, this bias amplifying feature was not observed (i.e., bias due to unmeasured confounders decreased) by adjusting for near-IV when it had a stronger association with the unmeasured confounders (≥0.1 correlation coefficient in our multivariate normal setting). CONCLUSION: It would be recommended to avoid adjusting for perfect IV in the g-computation algorithm to obtain a less biased estimate of the time-varying treatment effect. On the other hand, it may be recommended to include near-IV in the algorithm unless their association with unmeasured confounders is very weak. These findings would help researchers to consider the magnitude of bias when adjusting for (near-)IVs and select variables in the g-computation algorithm for the time-varying setting when they are aware of the presence of unmeasured confounding.

Economic Hardships and Self-reported Deterioration of Physical and Mental Health Under the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-sectional Study, 2020, Japan.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has disproportionately affected the most vulnerable populations. We assessed the prevalence and disparities of economic hardships and their impact on health deterioration in Japan. METHODS: Data were obtained from a nation-wide, cross-sectional, internet-based, self-reported survey conducted during August-September, 2020 with individuals aged 15-79 years in Japan (n = 25,482). Economic hardships and changes in various physical and mental health status were measured using sample-weighted data. Adjusted prevalence ratios (APRs) were estimated to investigate the associations between economic hardships and health outcomes. RESULTS: During April-September, 2020 in Japan, 25.0%, 9.6%, 7.9%, and 3.1% of the respondents experienced income loss, money shortage, financial anxiety and financial exploitation, respectively, with higher prevalence among workers (vs non-workers). Stratifying by sex and working status, income loss was associated with physical health deterioration (APRs ranged from 1.45-1.95), mental health deterioration (APRs ranged from 1.47-1.68), and having serious psychological distress (APRs ranged from 1.41-2.01) across all strata. Shortage of money and financial anxiety were also associated with increased likelihood of all adverse health outcomes assessed, regardless of whether the hardships were pre-existing or experienced first time. Among non-working individuals, financial exploitation was associated with physical health deterioration among males (APR 1.88) and mental health deterioration among both males (APR 1.80) and females (APR 2.23), while such associations were not observed among working individuals. CONCLUSIONS: During the early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic, COVID-19-related economic hardships were associated with physical and mental health deterioration in Japan, particularly among the vulnerable populations. Timely and prompt responses are warranted to mitigate both economic and health burdens.

Impact of the resident duty hours on in-training examination score: A nationwide study in Japan.

PURPOSE: The relationship between duty hours (DH) and the performance of postgraduate residents is needed to establish appropriate DH limits. This study explores their relationship using the General Medicine In-training Examination (GM-ITE). MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, GM-ITE examinees of 2019 had participated. We analyzed data from the examination and questionnaire, including DH per week (eight categories). We examined the association between DH and GM-ITE score, using random-intercept linear models with and without adjustments. RESULTS: Five thousand five hundred and ninety-three participants (50.7% PGY-1, 31.6% female, 10.0% university hospitals) were included. Mean GM-ITE scores were lower among residents in Category 2 (45-50 h; mean score difference, -1.05; p < 0.001) and Category 4 (55-60 h; -0.63; p = 0.008) compared with residents in Category 5 (60-65 h; Reference). PGY-2 residents in Categories 2-4 had lower GM-ITE scores compared to those in Category 5. University residents in Category 1 and Category 5 showed a large mean difference (-3.43; p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: DH <60-65 h per week was independently associated with lower resident performance, but more DH did not improve performance. DH of 60-65 h per week may be the optimal balance for a resident's education and well-being.

Risk factors for preoperative nasal carriage of methicillin-resistant bacteria in total hip and knee arthroplasty patients.

BACKGROUND: The present study aimed to identify risk factors for preoperative nasal carriage of resistant bacteria - MRSA methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus (S.) aureus, MRSE (methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus epidermidis), and MRCNS (methicillin-resistant coagulase negative staphylococci) in total hip and knee arthroplasty (THA and TKA) patients. METHODS: Nasal cultures were obtained from 538 patients before THA (262 primary and 26 revision) and TKA (241 primary and 9 revision). These were classified either as methicillin-resistant bacteria (group MR) or methicillin-susceptible bacteria (including culture-negative) (group MS). Patient characteristics were compared between these groups using logistic regression models. RESULTS: The resistant bacteria were preoperatively present in 33.1% (178 patients) among all patients. MRSE, MRCNS, and MRSA were detected in 27.5% (148 patients), 3.7% (20 patients), and 1.9% (10 patients). In the unadjusted comparisons of the patient characteristics between the groups MR and MS, a significant difference was found in the percentages of diabetic patients (15.2% vs. 9.2%, P = 0.04); the association remained after the multivariable adjustment for possible risk factors (P < 0.001). In addition, the diabetic patients in the group MR showed a higher percentage of receiving insulin injection than those in the group MS (25.9% vs. 6.1%, P = 0.063), and their mean levels of HbA1c were significantly higher in the group MR than the MS (6.8% vs. 6.4%, P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: We identified diabetes as a risk factor for the preoperative nasal carriage of resistant bacteria. Our results suggest that, in order to prevent a surgical site infection (SSI), extra care should be taken in performing joint arthroplasties for diabetic patients, especially using insulin and with high HbA1c levels (≥6.6%) prior to the surgical procedures.

Necrotizing fasciitis of the extremities in high and low Charlson Comorbidity Index: A multi-center retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a life-threatening and acute progressive soft tissue infection and needs early surgical intervention, that is, debridement or amputation. Surgical strategy or prognosis is influenced by the speed of progression and patients' general condition, which can be calculated by the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between the CCI scores and prognosis of patients with NF of the upper/lower extremities. METHODS: In the retrospective cohort study, we analyzed patients with NF of the upper/lower extremities who were determined to undergo surgery by orthopedic surgeons at four tertiary hospitals between August 2003 and April 2016. We divided the patients into two groups, Group L (low CCI scores of 0-2) and Group H (high CCI scores of ≥3). The primary event of this study was defined as death or amputation. Mortality cases were included when amputation was informed with documented certification but patients died while waiting for surgery. We compared the patients' background, laboratory data on admission, the laboratory risk indicator for necrotizing fasciitis (LRINEC) score, and primary outcome between the two groups. RESULTS: Of the 56 patients, 28 patients were classified into Group L and the other 28 patients into Group H. The data in this study showed that patients in Group H had lower white blood cell counts and hemoglobin and higher creatinine than Group L, but there was no difference in LRINEC scores between the two groups. Streptococcus pyogenes was the most common infectious agent in Group L (54%) but not in Group H (11%). Poorer outcome was observed in Group H compared with Group L (4 mortality and 16 amputation vs. no mortality and 9 amputation, P = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: Laboratory data and causative microorganisms were different between high CCI and low CCI patients with NF. High CCI scores were associated with limb amputation or death caused by NF of the upper/lower extremities; whereas, low CCI scores were more likely associated with S. pyogenes monoinfection.

Efficacy and Safety of Early vs Elective Colonoscopy for Acute Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We performed a large, multicenter, randomized controlled trial to determine the efficacy and safety of early colonoscopy on outcomes of patients with acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding (ALGIB). METHODS: We performed an open-label study at 15 hospitals in Japan of 170 patients with ALGIB randomly assigned (1:1) to groups that underwent early colonoscopy (within 24 hours of initial visit to the hospital) or elective colonoscopy (24-96 hours after hospital admission). The primary outcome was identification of stigmata of recent hemorrhage (SRH). Secondary outcomes were rebleeding within 30 days, endoscopic treatment success, need for transfusion, length of stay, thrombotic events within 30 days, death within 30 days, and adverse events. RESULTS: SRH were identified in 17 of 79 patients (21.5%) in the early colonoscopy group vs 17 of 80 patients (21.3%) in the elective colonoscopy group (difference, 0.3; 95% confidence interval, -12.5 to 13.0; P = .967). Rebleeding within 30 days of hospital admission occurred in 15.3% of patients in the early colonoscopy group and 6.7% of patients in the elective colonoscopy group (difference, 8.6; 95% confidence interval, -1.4 to 18.7); there were no significant differences between groups in successful endoscopic treatment rate, transfusion rate, length of stay, thrombotic events, or death within 30 days. The adverse event of hemorrhagic shock occurred during bowel preparation in no patient in the early group vs 2 patients (2.5%) in the elective colonoscopy group. CONCLUSIONS: In a randomized controlled study, we found that colonoscopy within 24 hours after hospital admission did not increase SRH or reduce rebleeding compared with colonoscopy at 24-96 hours in patients with ALGIB. ClinicalTrials.gov, Numbers: UMIN000021129 and NCT03098173.