Dynamical System Modeling of Immune Reconstitution after Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation Identifies Patients at Risk for Adverse Outcomes.

Systems that evolve over time and follow mathematical laws as they evolve are called dynamical systems. Lymphocyte recovery and clinical outcomes in 41 allograft recipients conditioned using antithymocyte globulin (ATG) and 4.5-Gy total body irradiation were studied to determine if immune reconstitution could be described as a dynamical system. Survival, relapse, and graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) were not significantly different in 2 cohorts of patients receiving different doses of ATG. However, donor-derived CD3(+) cell reconstitution was superior in the lower ATG dose cohort, and there were fewer instances of donor lymphocyte infusion (DLI). Lymphoid recovery was plotted in each individual over time and demonstrated 1 of 3 sigmoid growth patterns: Pattern A (n = 15) had rapid growth with high lymphocyte counts, pattern B (n = 14) had slower growth with intermediate recovery, and pattern C (n = 10) had poor lymphocyte reconstitution. There was a significant association between lymphocyte recovery patterns and both the rate of change of donor-derived CD3(+) at day 30 after stem cell transplantation (SCT) and clinical outcomes. GVHD was observed more frequently with pattern A, relapse and DLI more so with pattern C, with a consequent survival advantage in patients with patterns A and B. We conclude that evaluating immune reconstitution after SCT as a dynamical system may differentiate patients at risk of adverse outcomes and allow early intervention to modulate that risk.

The influence of lymphoid reconstitution kinetics on clinical outcomes in allogeneic stem cell transplantation.

Lymphoid recovery following myeloablative stem cell transplantation (SCT) displays a logistic pattern of exponential growth followed by a plateau. Within this logistic framework, lymphoid recovery is characterized by the parameters R (slope of ascent), a (time of maximal rate of ascent) and K (plateau), the 'steady-state' lymphocyte count. A retrospective analysis of allogeneic SCT performed from 2008 to 2013 was undertaken to compare lymphoid recovery and clinical outcomes in 131 patients with acute myelogenous leukemia, acute lymphocytic leukemia, and myelodysplastic syndromes. Using Prism software, a logistic curve was successfully fit to the absolute lymphocyte count recovery in all patients. Patients were classified according to the magnitude and rate of lymphoid recovery; pattern A achieved an absolute lymphocyte counts (ALC) of >1000/µL by day 45, pattern B an ALC 500 < x < 1000/µL, and pattern C an ALC <500/µL. Pattern A was characterized by a higher mean K (p < .0001) compared with patterns B and C. Patients with patterns B and C were more likely to have mixed T cell chimerism at 90 d following SCT (p = .01). There was a trend towards improved survival (and relapse-free survival) in those with pattern A and B at 1 year compared to pattern C (p = .073). There was no difference in cGVHD (p = .42) or relapse (p = .45) between pattern types. Cytomegalovirus (CMV), aGVHD, and all relapse were heralded by deviation from logistic behavior. Pattern C patients were more likely to require donor lymphocyte infusion (DLI) (p = .017). Weaning of tacrolimus post-transplant was associated with a second, separate logistic expansion in some patients. This study demonstrated that lymphoid reconstitution follows a prototypical logistic recovery and that pattern observed correlates with T cell chimerism and need for DLI, and may influence survival.