Increased reports of severe myocarditis associated with enterovirus infection in neonates, United Kingdom, 27 June 2022 to 26 April 2023.

Enteroviruses are a common cause of seasonal childhood infections. The vast majority of enterovirus infections are mild and self-limiting, although neonates can sometimes develop severe disease. Myocarditis is a rare complication of enterovirus infection. Between June 2022 and April 2023, twenty cases of severe neonatal enteroviral myocarditis caused by coxsackie B viruses were reported in the United Kingdom. Sixteen required critical care support and two died. Enterovirus PCR on whole blood was the most sensitive diagnostic test. We describe the initial public health investigation into this cluster and aim to raise awareness among paediatricians, laboratories and public health specialists.

Broadening symptom criteria improves early case identification in SARS-CoV-2 contacts.

BACKGROUND: The success of case isolation and contact tracing for the control of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission depends on the accuracy and speed of case identification. We assessed whether inclusion of additional symptoms alongside three canonical symptoms (CS), i.e. fever, cough and loss or change in smell or taste, could improve case definitions and accelerate case identification in SARS-CoV-2 contacts. METHODS: Two prospective longitudinal London (UK)-based cohorts of community SARS-CoV-2 contacts, recruited within 5 days of exposure, provided independent training and test datasets. Infected and uninfected contacts completed daily symptom diaries from the earliest possible time-points. Diagnostic information gained by adding symptoms to the CS was quantified using likelihood ratios and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Improvements in sensitivity and time to detection were compared with penalties in terms of specificity and number needed to test. RESULTS: Of 529 contacts within two cohorts, 164 (31%) developed PCR-confirmed infection and 365 (69%) remained uninfected. In the training dataset (n=168), 29% of infected contacts did not report the CS. Four symptoms (sore throat, muscle aches, headache and appetite loss) were identified as early-predictors (EP) which added diagnostic value to the CS. The broadened symptom criterion "≥1 of the CS, or ≥2 of the EP" identified PCR-positive contacts in the test dataset on average 2 days earlier after exposure (p=0.07) than "≥1 of the CS", with only modest reduction in specificity (5.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Broadening symptom criteria to include individuals with at least two of muscle aches, headache, appetite loss and sore throat identifies more infections and reduces time to detection, providing greater opportunities to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Characterising viable virus from air exhaled by H1N1 influenza-infected ferrets reveals the importance of haemagglutinin stability for airborne infectivity.

The transmissibility and pandemic potential of influenza viruses depends on their ability to efficiently replicate and be released from an infected host, retain viability as they pass through the environment, and then initiate infection in the next host. There is a significant gap in knowledge about viral properties that enable survival of influenza viruses between hosts, due to a lack of experimental methods to reliably isolate viable virus from the air. Using a novel technique, we isolate and characterise infectious virus from droplets emitted by 2009 pandemic H1N1-infected ferrets. We demonstrate that infectious virus is predominantly released early after infection. A virus containing a mutation destabilising the haemagglutinin (HA) surface protein displayed reduced survival in air. Infectious virus recovered from droplets exhaled by ferrets inoculated with this virus contained mutations that conferred restabilisation of HA, indicating the importance of influenza HA stability for between-host survival. Using this unique approach can improve knowledge about the determinants and mechanisms of influenza transmissibility and ultimately could be applied to studies of airborne virus exhaled from infected people.

On the Sensitivity and Specificity of Postmortem Upper Respiratory Tract Testing for SARS-CoV-2.

BACKGROUND: Postmortem testing can improve our understanding of the impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) if sufficiently sensitive and specific. METHODS: We investigated the postmortem sensitivity and specificity of reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing on upper respiratory swabs using a dataset of everyone tested for SARS-CoV-2 before and after death in England, 1 March to 29 October 2020. We analyzed sensitivity in those with a positive test before death by time to postmortem test. We developed a multivariate model and conducted time-to-negativity survival analysis. For specificity, we analyzed those with a negative test in the week before death. RESULTS: Postmortem testing within a week after death had a sensitivity of 96.8% if the person had tested positive within a week before death. There was no effect of age, sex, or specimen type on sensitivity, but individuals with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related codes on their death certificate were 5.65 times more likely to test positive after death (95% confidence interval, 2.31-13.9). Specificity was 94.2%, increasing to 97.5% in individuals without COVID-19 on the death certificate. CONCLUSION: Postmortem testing has high sensitivity (96.8%) and specificity (94.2%) if performed within a week after death and could be a useful diagnostic tool.

Influenza Virus with Increased pH of Hemagglutinin Activation Has Improved Replication in Cell Culture but at the Cost of Infectivity in Human Airway Epithelium.

Pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza virus emerged from swine in 2009 with an adequate capability to infect and transmit between people. In subsequent years, it has circulated as a seasonal virus and evolved further human-adapting mutations. Mutations in the hemagglutinin (HA) stalk that increase pH stability have been associated with human adaptation and airborne transmission of pH1N1 virus. Yet, our understanding of how pH stability impacts virus-host interactions is incomplete. Here, using recombinant viruses with point mutations that alter the pH stability of pH1N1 HA, we found distinct effects on virus phenotypes in different experimental models. Increased pH sensitivity enabled viruses to uncoat in endosomes more efficiently, manifesting as increased replication rate in typical continuous cell cultures under single-cycle conditions. A more acid-labile HA also conferred a small reduction in sensitivity to antiviral therapeutics that act at the pH-sensitive HA fusion step. Conversely, in primary human airway epithelium cultured at the air-liquid interface, increased pH sensitivity attenuated multicycle viral replication by compromising virus survival in the extracellular microenvironment. In a mouse model of influenza pathogenicity, there was an optimum HA activation pH, and viruses with either more- or less-pH-stable HA were less virulent. Opposing pressures inside and outside the host cell that determine pH stability may influence zoonotic potential. The distinct effects that changes in pH stability exert on viral phenotypes underscore the importance of using the most appropriate systems for assessing virus titer and fitness, which has implications for vaccine manufacture, antiviral drug development, and pandemic risk assessment.IMPORTANCE The pH stability of the hemagglutinin surface protein varies between different influenza strains and subtypes and can affect the virus' ability to replicate and transmit. Here, we demonstrate a delicate balance that the virus strikes within and without the target cell. We show that a pH-stable hemagglutinin enables a human influenza virus to replicate more effectively in human airway cells and mouse lungs by facilitating virus survival in the extracellular environment of the upper respiratory tract. Conversely, after entering target cells, being more pH stable confers a relative disadvantage, resulting in less efficient delivery of the viral genome to the host cell nucleus. Since the balance we describe will be affected differently in different host environments, it may restrict a virus' ability to cross species. In addition, our findings imply that different influenza viruses may show variation in how well they are controlled by antiviral strategies targeting pH-dependent steps in the virus replication cycle.

Duration of infectiousness and correlation with RT-PCR cycle threshold values in cases of COVID-19, England, January to May 2020.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 viral load in the upper respiratory tract peaks around symptom onset and infectious virus persists for 10 days in mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease (n = 324 samples analysed). RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values correlate strongly with cultivable virus. Probability of culturing virus declines to 8% in samples with Ct > 35 and to 6% 10 days after onset; it is similar in asymptomatic and symptomatic persons. Asymptomatic persons represent a source of transmissible virus.

Obesity is associated with improved survival in community-acquired pneumonia.

Obesity has been identified as a risk factor for adverse outcomes of 2009 H1N1 influenza. However, the impact of obesity on outcomes of infection remains controversial. There are limited data investigating the effect of obesity on outcomes of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). This prospective observational study included patients presenting with CAP who had body mass index (BMI) measured on admission. Outcome measures included 30-day mortality and need for mechanical ventilation or inotropic support (MV/IS). 1079 patients were included, with 21% classified as obese (BMI ≥30 kg·m(-2)). Obesity was independently associated with reduced 30-day mortality from CAP on multivariate analysis (HR 0.53, 95% CI 0.29-0.98). This was not explained by differences in severity of disease on admission or requirement for MV/IS between obese and nonobese groups. Obese patients had higher median C-reactive protein levels and a higher frequency of sepsis using the systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria (72.4% versus 64.1%; p=0.03), than nonobese patients, suggesting greater systemic inflammation. Obesity was associated with reduced 30-day mortality in patients hospitalised with CAP.

Asymptomatic immunodeficiency-associated vaccine-derived poliovirus infections in two UK children.

Increasing detections of vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) globally, including in countries previously declared polio free, is a public health emergency of international concern. Individuals with primary immunodeficiency (PID) can excrete polioviruses for prolonged periods, which could act as a source of cryptic transmission of viruses with potential to cause neurological disease. Here, we report on the detection of immunodeficiency-associated VDPVs (iVDPV) from two asymptomatic male PID children in the UK in 2019. The first child cleared poliovirus with increased doses of intravenous immunoglobulin, the second child following haematopoetic stem cell transplantation. We perform genetic and phenotypic characterisation of the infecting strains, demonstrating intra-host evolution and a neurovirulent phenotype in transgenic mice. Our findings highlight a pressing need to strengthen polio surveillance. Systematic collection of stool from asymptomatic PID patients who are at high risk for poliovirus excretion could improve the ability to detect and contain iVDPVs.

Viral emissions into the air and environment after SARS-CoV-2 human challenge: a phase 1, open label, first-in-human study.

BACKGROUND: Effectively implementing strategies to curb SARS-CoV-2 transmission requires understanding who is contagious and when. Although viral load on upper respiratory swabs has commonly been used to infer contagiousness, measuring viral emissions might be more accurate to indicate the chance of onward transmission and identify likely routes. We aimed to correlate viral emissions, viral load in the upper respiratory tract, and symptoms, longitudinally, in participants who were experimentally infected with SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: In this phase 1, open label, first-in-human SARS-CoV-2 experimental infection study at quarantine unit at the Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK, healthy adults aged 18-30 years who were unvaccinated for SARS-CoV-2, not previously known to have been infected with SARS-CoV-2, and seronegative at screening were recruited. Participants were inoculated with 10 50% tissue culture infectious dose of pre-alpha wild-type SARS-CoV-2 (Asp614Gly) by intranasal drops and remained in individual negative pressure rooms for a minimum of 14 days. Nose and throat swabs were collected daily. Emissions were collected daily from the air (using a Coriolis µ air sampler and directly into facemasks) and the surrounding environment (via surface and hand swabs). All samples were collected by researchers, and tested by using PCR, plaque assay, or lateral flow antigen test. Symptom scores were collected using self-reported symptom diaries three times daily. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04865237. FINDINGS: Between March 6 and July 8, 2021, 36 participants (ten female and 26 male) were recruited and 18 (53%) of 34 participants became infected, resulting in protracted high viral loads in the nose and throat following a short incubation period, with mild-to-moderate symptoms. Two participants were excluded from the per-protocol analysis owing to seroconversion between screening and inoculation, identified post hoc. Viral RNA was detected in 63 (25%) of 252 Coriolis air samples from 16 participants, 109 (43%) of 252 mask samples from 17 participants, 67 (27%) of 252 hand swabs from 16 participants, and 371 (29%) of 1260 surface swabs from 18 participants. Viable SARS-CoV-2 was collected from breath captured in 16 masks and from 13 surfaces, including four small frequently touched surfaces and nine larger surfaces where airborne virus could deposit. Viral emissions correlated more strongly with viral load in nasal swabs than throat swabs. Two individuals emitted 86% of airborne virus, and the majority of airborne virus collected was released on 3 days. Individuals who reported the highest total symptom scores were not those who emitted most virus. Very few emissions occurred before the first reported symptom (7%) and hardly any before the first positive lateral flow antigen test (2%). INTERPRETATION: After controlled experimental inoculation, the timing, extent, and routes of viral emissions was heterogeneous. We observed that a minority of participants were high airborne virus emitters, giving support to the notion of superspreading individuals or events. Our data implicates the nose as the most important source of emissions. Frequent self-testing coupled with isolation upon awareness of first symptoms could reduce onward transmissions. FUNDING: UK Vaccine Taskforce of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy of Her Majesty's Government.

Risk factors and vectors for SARS-CoV-2 household transmission: a prospective, longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Despite circumstantial evidence for aerosol and fomite spread of SARS-CoV-2, empirical data linking either pathway with transmission are scarce. Here we aimed to assess whether the presence of SARS-CoV-2 on frequently-touched surfaces and residents' hands was a predictor of SARS-CoV-2 household transmission. METHODS: In this longitudinal cohort study, during the pre-alpha (September to December, 2020) and alpha (B.1.1.7; December, 2020, to April, 2021) SARS-CoV-2 variant waves, we prospectively recruited contacts from households exposed to newly diagnosed COVID-19 primary cases, in London, UK. To maximally capture transmission events, contacts were recruited regardless of symptom status and serially tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection by RT-PCR on upper respiratory tract (URT) samples and, in a subcohort, by serial serology. Contacts' hands, primary cases' hands, and frequently-touched surface-samples from communal areas were tested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. SARS-CoV-2 URT isolates from 25 primary case-contact pairs underwent whole-genome sequencing (WGS). FINDINGS: From Aug 1, 2020, until March 31, 2021, 620 contacts of PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2-infected primary cases were recruited. 414 household contacts (from 279 households) with available serial URT PCR results were analysed in the full household contacts' cohort, and of those, 134 contacts with available longitudinal serology data and not vaccinated pre-enrolment were analysed in the serology subcohort. Household infection rate was 28·4% (95% CI 20·8-37·5) for pre-alpha-exposed contacts and 51·8% (42·5-61·0) for alpha-exposed contacts (p=0·0047). Primary cases' URT RNA viral load did not correlate with transmission, but was associated with detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA on their hands (p=0·031). SARS-CoV-2 detected on primary cases' hands, in turn, predicted contacts' risk of infection (adjusted relative risk [aRR]=1·70 [95% CI 1·24-2·31]), as did SARS-CoV-2 RNA presence on household surfaces (aRR=1·66 [1·09-2·55]) and contacts' hands (aRR=2·06 [1·57-2·69]). In six contacts with an initial negative URT PCR result, hand-swab (n=3) and household surface-swab (n=3) PCR positivity preceded URT PCR positivity. WGS corroborated household transmission. INTERPRETATION: Presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA on primary cases' and contacts' hands and on frequently-touched household surfaces associates with transmission, identifying these as potential vectors for spread in households. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections, Medical Research Council.

SARS-CoV-2 antigen lateral flow tests for detecting infectious people: linked data analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the proportion of lateral flow tests (LFTs) that produce negative results in those with a high risk of infectiousness from SARS-CoV-2, to investigate the impact of the stage and severity of disease, and to compare predictions made by influential mathematical models with findings of empirical studies. DESIGN: Linked data analysis combining empirical evidence of the accuracy of the Innova LFT, the probability of positive viral culture or transmission to secondary cases, and the distribution of viral loads of SARS-CoV-2 in individuals in different settings. SETTING: Testing of individuals with symptoms attending NHS Test-and-Trace centres across the UK, residents without symptoms attending municipal mass testing centres in Liverpool, and students without symptoms screened at the University of Birmingham. PARTICIPANTS: Evidence for the sensitivity of the Innova LFT, based on 70 individuals with SARS-CoV-2 and LFT results. Infectiousness was based on viral culture rates on 246 samples (176 people with SARS-CoV-2) and secondary cases among 2 474 066 contacts; distributions of cycle threshold (Ct) values from 231 497 index individuals attending NHS Test-and-Trace centres; 70 people with SARS-CoV-2 detected in Liverpool and 62 people with SARS-CoV-2 in Birmingham (54 imputed). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The predicted proportions who were missed by LFT and viral culture positive and missed by LFT and sources of secondary cases, in each of the three settings. Predictions were compared with those made by mathematical models. RESULTS: The analysis predicted that of those with a viral culture positive result, Innova would miss 20% attending an NHS Test-and-Trace centre, 29% without symptoms attending municipal mass testing, and 81% attending university screen testing without symptoms, along with 38%, 47%, and 90% of sources of secondary cases. In comparison, two mathematical models underestimated the numbers of missed infectious individuals (8%, 10%, and 32% in the three settings for one model, whereas the assumptions from the second model made it impossible to miss an infectious individual). Owing to the paucity of usable data, the inputs to the analyses are from limited sources. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of infectious people with SARS-CoV-2 missed by LFTs is substantial enough to be of clinical importance. The proportion missed varied between settings because of different viral load distributions and is likely to be highest in those without symptoms. Key models have substantially overestimated the sensitivity of LFTs compared with empirical data. An urgent need exists for additional robust well designed and reported empirical studies from intended use settings to inform evidence based policy.

Community transmission and viral load kinetics of the SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in the UK: a prospective, longitudinal, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant is highly transmissible and spreading globally, including in populations with high vaccination rates. We aimed to investigate transmission and viral load kinetics in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals with mild delta variant infection in the community. METHODS: Between Sept 13, 2020, and Sept 15, 2021, 602 community contacts (identified via the UK contract-tracing system) of 471 UK COVID-19 index cases were recruited to the Assessment of Transmission and Contagiousness of COVID-19 in Contacts cohort study and contributed 8145 upper respiratory tract samples from daily sampling for up to 20 days. Household and non-household exposed contacts aged 5 years or older were eligible for recruitment if they could provide informed consent and agree to self-swabbing of the upper respiratory tract. We analysed transmission risk by vaccination status for 231 contacts exposed to 162 epidemiologically linked delta variant-infected index cases. We compared viral load trajectories from fully vaccinated individuals with delta infection (n=29) with unvaccinated individuals with delta (n=16), alpha (B.1.1.7; n=39), and pre-alpha (n=49) infections. Primary outcomes for the epidemiological analysis were to assess the secondary attack rate (SAR) in household contacts stratified by contact vaccination status and the index cases' vaccination status. Primary outcomes for the viral load kinetics analysis were to detect differences in the peak viral load, viral growth rate, and viral decline rate between participants according to SARS-CoV-2 variant and vaccination status. FINDINGS: The SAR in household contacts exposed to the delta variant was 25% (95% CI 18-33) for fully vaccinated individuals compared with 38% (24-53) in unvaccinated individuals. The median time between second vaccine dose and study recruitment in fully vaccinated contacts was longer for infected individuals (median 101 days [IQR 74-120]) than for uninfected individuals (64 days [32-97], p=0·001). SAR among household contacts exposed to fully vaccinated index cases was similar to household contacts exposed to unvaccinated index cases (25% [95% CI 15-35] for vaccinated vs 23% [15-31] for unvaccinated). 12 (39%) of 31 infections in fully vaccinated household contacts arose from fully vaccinated epidemiologically linked index cases, further confirmed by genomic and virological analysis in three index case-contact pairs. Although peak viral load did not differ by vaccination status or variant type, it increased modestly with age (difference of 0·39 [95% credible interval -0·03 to 0·79] in peak log10 viral load per mL between those aged 10 years and 50 years). Fully vaccinated individuals with delta variant infection had a faster (posterior probability >0·84) mean rate of viral load decline (0·95 log10 copies per mL per day) than did unvaccinated individuals with pre-alpha (0·69), alpha (0·82), or delta (0·79) variant infections. Within individuals, faster viral load growth was correlated with higher peak viral load (correlation 0·42 [95% credible interval 0·13 to 0·65]) and slower decline (-0·44 [-0·67 to -0·18]). INTERPRETATION: Vaccination reduces the risk of delta variant infection and accelerates viral clearance. Nonetheless, fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts. Host-virus interactions early in infection may shape the entire viral trajectory. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.

Onset and window of SARS-CoV-2 infectiousness and temporal correlation with symptom onset: a prospective, longitudinal, community cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge of the window of SARS-CoV-2 infectiousness is crucial in developing policies to curb transmission. Mathematical modelling based on scarce empirical evidence and key assumptions has driven isolation and testing policy, but real-world data are needed. We aimed to characterise infectiousness across the full course of infection in a real-world community setting. METHODS: The Assessment of Transmission and Contagiousness of COVID-19 in Contacts (ATACCC) study was a UK prospective, longitudinal, community cohort of contacts of newly diagnosed, PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 index cases. Household and non-household exposed contacts aged 5 years or older were eligible for recruitment if they could provide informed consent and agree to self-swabbing of the upper respiratory tract. The primary objective was to define the window of SARS-CoV-2 infectiousness and its temporal correlation with symptom onset. We quantified viral RNA load by RT-PCR and infectious viral shedding by enumerating cultivable virus daily across the course of infection. Participants completed a daily diary to track the emergence of symptoms. Outcomes were assessed with empirical data and a phenomenological Bayesian hierarchical model. FINDINGS: Between Sept 13, 2020, and March 31, 2021, we enrolled 393 contacts from 327 households (the SARS-CoV-2 pre-alpha and alpha variant waves); and between May 24, 2021, and Oct 28, 2021, we enrolled 345 contacts from 215 households (the delta variant wave). 173 of these 738 contacts were PCR positive for more than one timepoint, 57 of which were at the start of infection and comprised the final study population. The onset and end of infectious viral shedding were captured in 42 cases and the median duration of infectiousness was 5 (IQR 3-7) days. Although 24 (63%) of 38 cases had PCR-detectable virus before symptom onset, only seven (20%) of 35 shed infectious virus presymptomatically. Symptom onset was a median of 3 days before both peak viral RNA and peak infectious viral load (viral RNA IQR 3-5 days, n=38; plaque-forming units IQR 3-6 days, n=35). Notably, 22 (65%) of 34 cases and eight (24%) of 34 cases continued to shed infectious virus 5 days and 7 days post-symptom onset, respectively (survival probabilities 67% and 35%). Correlation of lateral flow device (LFD) results with infectious viral shedding was poor during the viral growth phase (sensitivity 67% [95% CI 59-75]), but high during the decline phase (92% [86-96]). Infectious virus kinetic modelling suggested that the initial rate of viral replication determines the course of infection and infectiousness. INTERPRETATION: Less than a quarter of COVID-19 cases shed infectious virus before symptom onset; under a crude 5-day self-isolation period from symptom onset, two-thirds of cases released into the community would still be infectious, but with reduced infectious viral shedding. Our findings support a role for LFDs to safely accelerate deisolation but not for early diagnosis, unless used daily. These high-resolution, community-based data provide evidence to inform infection control guidance. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Effect of a Russian-backbone live-attenuated influenza vaccine with an updated pandemic H1N1 strain on shedding and immunogenicity among children in The Gambia: an open-label, observational, phase 4 study.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy and effectiveness of the pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) component in live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) is poor. The reasons for this paucity are unclear but could be due to impaired replicative fitness of pH1N1 A/California/07/2009-like (Cal09) strains. We assessed whether an updated pH1N1 strain in the Russian-backbone trivalent LAIV resulted in greater shedding and immunogenicity compared with LAIV with Cal09. METHODS: We did an open-label, prospective, observational, phase 4 study in Sukuta, a periurban area in The Gambia. We enrolled children aged 24-59 months who were clinically well. Children received one dose of the WHO prequalified Russian-backbone trivalent LAIV containing either A/17/California/2009/38 (Cal09) or A/17/New York/15/5364 (NY15) based on their year of enrolment. Primary outcomes were the percentage of children with LAIV strain shedding at day 2 and day 7, haemagglutinin inhibition seroconversion, and an increase in influenza haemagglutinin-specific IgA and T-cell responses at day 21 after LAIV. This study is nested within a randomised controlled trial investigating LAIV-microbiome interactions (NCT02972957). FINDINGS: Between Feb 8, 2017, and April 12, 2017, 118 children were enrolled and received one dose of the Cal09 LAIV from 2016-17. Between Jan 15, 2018, and March 28, 2018, a separate cohort of 135 children were enrolled and received one dose of the NY15 LAIV from 2017-18, of whom 126 children completed the study. Cal09 showed impaired pH1N1 nasopharyngeal shedding (16 of 118 children [14%, 95% CI 8·0-21·1] with shedding at day 2 after administration of LAIV) compared with H3N2 (54 of 118 [46%, 36·6-55·2]; p<0·0001) and influenza B (95 of 118 [81%, 72·2-87·2]; p<0·0001), along with suboptimal serum antibody (seroconversion in six of 118 [5%, 1·9-10·7]) and T-cell responses (CD4+ interferon γ-positive and/or CD4+ interleukin 2-positive responses in 45 of 111 [41%, 31·3-50·3]). After the switch to NY15, a significant increase in pH1N1 shedding was seen (80 of 126 children [63%, 95% CI 54·4-71·9]; p<0·0001 compared with Cal09), along with improvements in seroconversion (24 of 126 [19%, 13·2-26·8]; p=0·011) and influenza-specific CD4+ T-cell responses (73 of 111 [66%, 60·0-75·6; p=0·00028]). The improvement in pH1N1 seroconversion with NY15 was even greater in children who were seronegative at baseline (24 of 64 children [38%, 95% CI 26·7-49·8] vs six of 79 children with Cal09 [8%, 2·8-15·8]; p<0·0001). Persistent shedding to day 7 was independently associated with both seroconversion (odds ratio 12·69, 95% CI 4·1-43·6; p<0·0001) and CD4+ T-cell responses (odds ratio 7·83, 95% CI 2·99-23·5; p<0·0001) by multivariable logistic regression. INTERPRETATION: The pH1N1 component switch that took place between 2016 and 2018 might have overcome the poor efficacy and effectiveness reported with previous LAIV formulations. LAIV effectiveness against pH1N1 should, therefore, improve in upcoming influenza seasons. Our data highlight the importance of assessing replicative fitness, in addition to antigenicity, when selecting annual LAIV components. FUNDING: The Wellcome Trust.

Urgent challenges in implementing live attenuated influenza vaccine.

Conflicting reports have emerged about the effectiveness of the live attenuated influenza vaccine. The live attenuated influenza vaccine appears to protect particularly poorly against currently circulating H1N1 viruses that are derived from the 2009 pandemic H1N1 viruses. During the 2015-16 influenza season, when pandemic H1N1 was the predominant virus, studies from the USA reported a complete lack of effectiveness of the live vaccine in children. This finding led to a crucial decision in the USA to recommend that the live vaccine not be used in 2016-17 and to switch to the inactivated influenza vaccine. Other countries, including the UK, Canada, and Finland, however, have continued to recommend the use of the live vaccine. This policy divergence and uncertainty has far reaching implications for the entire global community, given the importance of the production capabilities of the live attenuated influenza vaccine for pandemic preparedness. In this Personal View, we discuss possible explanations for the observed reduced effectiveness of the live attenuated influenza vaccine and highlight the underpinning scientific questions. Further research to understand the reasons for these observations is essential to enable informed public health policy and commercial decisions about vaccine production and development in coming years.

Cardiovascular events after clarithromycin use in lower respiratory tract infections: analysis of two prospective cohort studies.

OBJECTIVE: To study the association of clarithromycin with cardiovascular events in the setting of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and community acquired pneumonia. DESIGN: Analysis of two prospectively collected datasets. SETTING: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease dataset including patients admitted to one of 12 hospitals around the United Kingdom between 2009 and 2011; Edinburgh pneumonia study cohort including patients admitted to NHS Lothian Hospitals between 2005 and 2009. POPULATION: 1343 patients admitted to hospital with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and 1631 patients admitted with community acquired pneumonia. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Hazard ratios for cardiovascular events at one year (defined as hospital admissions with acute coronary syndrome, decompensated cardiac failure, serious arrhythmia, or sudden cardiac death) and admissions for acute coronary syndrome (acute ST elevation myocardial infarction, non-ST elevation myocardial infarction, and unstable angina). Secondary outcomes were all cause and cardiovascular mortality at one year. RESULTS: 268 cardiovascular events occurred in the acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cohort and 171 in the community acquired pneumonia cohort over one year. After multivariable adjustment, clarithromycin use in acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events and acute coronary syndrome-hazard ratios 1.50 (95% confidence interval 1.13 to 1.97) and 1.67 (1.04 to 2.68). After multivariable adjustment, clarithromycin use in community acquired pneumonia was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events (hazard ratio 1.68, 1.18 to 2.38) but not acute coronary syndrome (1.65, 0.97 to 2.80). The association between clarithromycin use and cardiovascular events persisted after matching for the propensity to receive clarithromycin. A significant association was found between clarithromycin use and cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 1.52, 1.02 to 2.26) but not all cause mortality (1.16, 0.90 to 1.51) in acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. No association was found between clarithromycin use in community acquired pneumonia and all cause mortality or cardiovascular mortality. Longer durations of clarithromycin use were associated with more cardiovascular events. Use of ß lactam antibiotics or doxycycline was not associated with increased cardiovascular events in patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, suggesting an effect specific to clarithromycin. CONCLUSIONS: The use of clarithromycin in the setting of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or community acquired pneumonia may be associated with increased cardiovascular events. These findings require confirmation in other datasets.

Factors associated with severe illness in pandemic 2009 influenza a (H1N1) infection: implications for triage in primary and secondary care.

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus (pH1N1/09) infection spread rapidly around the globe, leading to a phase 6 pandemic level of alert declared in June 2009. The WHO declared the end of the pandemic in August 2010. Although for the majority of infected patients, it manifest as a mild, self-limiting illness, a proportion appeared to follow an adverse clinical course, requiring higher level care and aggressive management strategies. Experience with previous pandemics suggests that H1N1 will continue to circulate for many years. The aim of this review is to evaluate data from published case series reporting patients with pH1N1/09 influenza to identify clinical markers of severe disease. Comorbid illnesses including chronic lung disease, obesity and pregnancy have been shown to confer increased risk of severe infection. Admission vital signs, laboratory investigations and chest radiographic features can guide admitting clinicians to stratify patients' risk of severe disease, however, the currently available severity scoring tools have only a limited role in risk assessment. Knowledge of high risk parameters remains important for clinicians triaging patients with suspected pH1N1/09 influenza and to inform strategies for future pandemics.