The impact of the three-level collaboration exercise on collaboration and leadership during scenario-based hospital evacuation exercises using flexible surge capacity concept: a mixed method cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Hospitals play a crucial role in responding to disasters and public health emergencies. However, they are also vulnerable to threats such as fire or flooding and can fail to respond or evacuate adequately due to unpreparedness and lack of evacuation measures. The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction has emphasised the importance of partnerships and capacity building in disaster response. One effective way to improve and develop disaster response is through exercises that focus on collaboration and leadership. This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of using the 3-level collaboration (3LC) exercise in developing collaboration and leadership in districts in Thailand, using the concept of flexible surge capacity (FSC) and its collaborative tool during a hospital evacuation simulation. METHODS: A mixed-method cross-sectional study was conducted with 40 participants recruited from disaster-response organisations and communities. The data from several scenario-based simulations were collected according to the collaborative elements (Command and control, Safety, Communication, Assessment, Triage, Treatment, Transport), in the disaster response education, "Major Incident Medical Management and Support" using self-evaluation survey pre- and post-exercises, and direct observation. RESULTS: The 3LC exercise effectively facilitated participants to gain a mutual understanding of collaboration, leadership, and individual and organisational flexibility. The exercise also identified gaps in communication and the utilisation of available resources. Additionally, the importance of early community engagement was highlighted to build up a flexible surge capacity during hospital evacuation preparedness. CONCLUSIONS: the 3LC exercise is valuable for improving leadership skills and multiagency collaboration by incorporating the collaborative factors of Flexible Surge Capacity concept in hospital evacuation preparedness.

Hypertensive crisis in patients with obstructive sleep apnea-induced hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Hypertensive crisis is an urgent/emergency condition. Although obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in resistant hypertension has been thoroughly examined, information regarding the risk factors and prevalence of hypertensive crisis in co-existing OSA and hypertension is limited. This study thus aimed to determine prevalence of and risk factors for hypertensive crisis in patients with hypertension caused by OSA. METHODS: The inclusion criteria were age of 18 years or over and diagnosis of co-existing OSA and hypertension. Those patients with other causes of secondary hypertension were excluded. Patients were categorized by occurrence of hypertensive crisis. Factors associated with hypertensive crisis were calculated using multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: There were 121 patients met the study criteria. Of those, 19 patients (15.70%) had history of hypertensive crisis. Those patients in hypertensive crisis group had significant higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure at regular follow-ups than those without hypertensive crisis patients (177 vs. 141 mmHg and 108 vs. 85 mmHg; p value < 0.001 for both factors). After adjusted for age, sex, and Mallampati classification, only systolic blood pressure was independently associated with hypertensive crisis with adjusted odds ratio (95% CI) of 1.046 (1.012, 1.080). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of hypertensive crisis in co-existing OSA and hypertension was 15.70% and high systolic blood pressure or uncontrolled blood pressure associated with hypertensive crisis in patients with OSA-associated hypertension.

Clinical Predictors Influencing the Length of Stay in Emergency Department Patients Presenting with Acute Heart Failure.

Background and objectives: Acute heart failure is a common problem encountered in the emergency department (ED). More than 80% of the patients with the condition subsequently require lengthy and repeated hospitalization. In a setting with limited in-patient capacity, the patient flow is often obstructed. Appropriate disposition decisions must be made by emergency physicians to deliver effective care and alleviate ED overcrowding. This study aimed to explore clinical predictors influencing the length of stay (LOS) in patients with acute heart failure who present to the ED. Materials and Methods: We conducted prognostic factor research with a retrospective cohort design. Medical records of patients with acute heart failure who presented to the ED of Ramathibodi Hospital from January to December 2015 were assessed for eligibility. Thirteen potential clinical predictors were selected as candidates for statistical modeling based on previous reports. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to estimate the difference in LOS between patients with and without potential predictors. Results: A total of 207 patients were included in the analysis. Most patients were male with a mean age of 74.2 ± 12.5 years. The median LOS was 54.6 h (Interquartile range 17.5, 149.3 h). From the multivariable analysis, four clinical characteristics were identified as independent predictors with an increase in LOS. These were patients with New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class III/IV (+72.9 h, 95%Confidence interval (CI) 23.9, 121.8, p = 0.004), respiratory rate >24 per minute (+80.7 h, 95%CI 28.0, 133.3, p = 0.003), hemoglobin level <10 mg/dL (+60.4 h, 95%CI 8.6, 112.3, p = 0.022), and serum albumin <3.5 g/dL (+52.8 h, 95%CI 3.6, 102.0, p = 0.035). Conclusions: Poor NYHA functional class, tachypnea, anemia, and hypoalbuminemia are significant clinical predictors of patients with acute heart failure who required longer LOS.

The CPR outcomes of online medical video instruction versus on-scene medical instruction using simulated cardiac arrest stations.

BACKGROUND: Non-traumatic cardiac arrest is a fatal emergency condition. Its survival rate and outcomes may be better with quick and effective cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). Telemedicine such as telephone or real time video has been shown to improve chest compression procedures. There are limited data on the effects of telemedicine in cardiac arrest situations in the literature particularly in Asian settings. METHODS: This study was conducted by using two simulated cardiac arrest stations during the 2014 annual Thai national conference in emergency medicine. These two stations, nos. 5 and 11, were a part of the conference activity called "EMS rally" which was comprised of 14 stations. Both stations were shockable and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest situations; station 5 was online instructed, while station 11 was on-scene instructed. There were 14 representative teams from each province from all over Thailand who participated in the rally. Each team had one physician, one nurse, and two emergency medicine technicians. Eight CPR outcomes were evaluated and compared between the online versus on-scene situations. RESULTS: There were 14 representative teams that participated in the study; a total of 14 physicians, 14 nurses, and 28 emergency medicine technicians. The average ages of participants in all three occupations were between the second and third decade of life. The percentages of participants with more than 3 years in ambulance experience was 7.1, 64.3, and 53.6 % in the physicians, nurses, and EMTs groups. The median times of all outcomes were significantly longer in the online group than the on-scene group including times from start to chest compression (total 102 vs 36 s), total times from the start to VT/VF detection (187 vs 99 s); times from VT/VF detection to the first defibrillation (57 vs 28 s); and times from the start of adrenaline injection (282 vs 165 s). The percentages of using amiodarone (21.43 % vs 57.14 %; p value < 0.001), establishment of a definitive airway (35.71 % vs 100 %; p value 0.003), and correct detections of pulseless electrical activity (PEA) (28.57 % vs 100 %; p value < 0.001) were significantly lower in the online group than the on-scene group. The high quality CPR outcomes between the online group and on-scene group were comparable. CONCLUSIONS: The online medical instruction may have worse CPR outcomes compared with on-scene medical instruction in shockable, simulated CPR scenarios. Further studies are needed to confirm these results.

FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH EXTENDED SPECTRUM ß-LACTAMASE PRODUCING ESCHERICHIA COLI IN COMMUNITY-ACQUIRED URINARY TRACT INFECTION AT HOSPITAL EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT, BANGKOK, THAILAND.

Urinary tract infection or UTI is most commonly caused by Escherichia coli. This study investigated the prevalence of and risk factors for extended spectrum ß-lactamase-producing (ESBL) E. coli in community-acquired UTI presenting at the Emergency Department, Faculty of Medicine Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand. A retrospective review was conducted over a one-year period (2014) of case histories of patients over 15 years of age diagnosed with (n = 159) and without culture-positive (n = 249) ESBL E. coli. Backward stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed four independent risk factors for UTI caused by ESBL E. coli, namely, urinary catheter use, previous UTI in which ESBL E. coli was present, and previous use of antibiotics cephalosporin and penicillin. This information should be useful in devising future public health prevention and control programs for ESBL E. coli-associated community-acquired UTI.

What clinical factors are associated with biphasic anaphylaxis in Thai adult patients?

BACKGROUND: Anaphylaxis is an emergency condition and may be fatal. Approximately 20% of patients with anaphylaxis may develop recurrent episodes of anaphylaxis within 72 hours or biphasic anaphylaxis. The severity of biphasic anaphylaxis can be either more or less severe than the first episode. Knowledge of factors associated with biphasic anaphylaxis in particular in Asian populations is still limited. OBJECTIVES: To study predictors for biphasic anaphylaxis in Thai patients at the Emergency Department (ED). METHODS: All consecutive patients diagnosed as anaphylaxis at the ED, Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok were enrolled. The study was prospectively conducted from January to December 2011. Patients were divided into two groups; uniphasic and biphasic anaphylaxis. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with biphasic anaphylaxis. RESULTS: During the study period, there were 63 patients diagnosed with anaphylaxis at the ED. Of those, 16 patients were excluded due to or treatment of anaphylaxis, concomitant medications or pre hospital treatment. In total, there were 47 patients remaining in the study, including 10 patients with biphasic anaphylaxis (21.28%). The clinical characteristics of the uniphasic and biphasic anaphylaxis groups were comparable. In multivariate logistic regression analyses, only respiratory rate and abdominal pain were significantly associated with biphasic anaphylaxis. The adjusted ORs (95% CI) of both factors were 0.653 (0.457, 0.932) and 15.429 (1.395, 170.690), respectively. CONCLUSION: Reduced respiratory rate and the presence of abdominal pain were two significant factors associated with biphasic anaphylaxis.

Effects of prehospital adrenaline administration on out-of-hospital cardiac arrest outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis for determining the effects of prehospital adrenaline administration on return of spontaneous circulation, hospital admission, survival to discharge and discharge with cerebral performance category 1 or 2 in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients. METHODS: MEDLINE and Scopus databases were searched to identify studies reported to March 2014. Study selection and data extraction were independently completed by two reviewers (PA and SR). The baseline characteristics of each study and number of events were extracted. Risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were estimated. Heterogeneity and publication bias were also explored. RESULTS: In total 15 studies were eligible and included in the study. Of 13 adult observational studies, four to eight studies were pooled for each outcome. These yielded a total sample size that ranged from 2,381 to 421,459. A random effects model suggested that patients receiving prehospital adrenaline were 2.89 times (95% CI: 2.36, 3.54) more likely to achieve prehospital return of spontaneous circulation than those not administered adrenaline. However, there were no significant effects on overall return of spontaneous circulation (RR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.5, 1.74), admission (RR = 1.05, 95% CI: 0.80, 1.38) and survival to discharge (RR = 0.69, 95% CI: 0.48, 1.00). CONCLUSIONS: Prehospital adrenaline administration may increase prehospital return of spontaneous circulation, but it does not improve overall rates of return of spontaneous circulation, hospital admission and survival to discharge.

Cost differences between complete and incomplete post-exposure courses of rabies vaccination.

Courses of post-exposure rabies vaccination in clinical practice are often not administered completely. If suspected animals are still alive after 10 days of observation, full post-exposure vaccination will usually be withheld from bite victims. In this study, we compared the cost differences between complete and incomplete courses of post-exposure rabies vaccination. The cost calculations were based on the principle that all patients will have at least one more animal bite in the future. Costs were compared between patients who received post-exposure rabies vaccination and if they completed or did not complete the vaccine regimen. In this study, 46.7% of 372 patients completed the full course of five doses of the rabies vaccine. Based on the study rationale, complete vaccination would save nation budget 224,700 Baht for WHO wound category 2, 801,474 Baht for WHO wound category 3 with equine rabies immunoglobulin treatment, and 2,618,916 Baht for WHO wound category 3 with human rabies immunoglobulin treatment. Physicians should encourage complete courses of post-exposure rabies vaccination to save further costs from animal bites in the future.

An emergency medical service system in Thailand: providers' perspectives.

BACKGROUND: Emergency medical services (EMS) in Thailand have been established for more than 20 years. However evaluation of EMS is limited The present study aimed to determine providers 'perspectives on EMS in Thailand MATERIAL AND METHOD: The present study was conducted at the tenth Academic Annual Meeting of Emergency Medicine between February 9 and 13, 2009 at Rajavithi Hospital, Bangkok. All participants at the meeting were eligible and randomly selected for the survey Subjects were physicians, nurses, or paramedics who worked in Emergency Department/Room at hospitals in Thailand. The survey was performed by self-rated questionnaire. RESULTS: Four hundred fifty questionnaires were distributed and 425 were returned completed (94.4%). Of those, 365 subjects (85.9%) were female, 359 (84.5%) were nurses, 103 (24.5%) worked at the ER for more than 10 years, and 284 (67.6%) worked at the community hospitals. The most three common issues of EMS system were insufficient medical personnel, insufficient medical devices, and lack of knowledge of medical personnel. At the ER, overcrowding was the most common issue, while problems with medical devices, collaborations with other organizations, and communication devices were main problems at the pre-hospital EMS. The average satisfactory score of EMS was 2.86 out of 5. CONCLUSION: EMS in Thailand requires improvement in terms of numbers ofmedical personnel, well-equipped ambulance, and collaborations among organizations.

Characteristics of Pediatric Emergency and Risk Factors for Life-saving Interventions.

Pediatric emergency patients are vulnerable population and require special care or interventions. Nevertheless, there is limited data on the prevalence and risk factors for life-saving interventions. This study is a retrospective analytical study. The inclusion criteria were children aged 15 years or under who were triaged as level 1 or 2 and treated at the resuscitation room. Factors associated with LSI were executed by logistic regression analysis. During the study period, there were 22 759 ER visits by 14 066 pediatric patients. Of those, 346 patients (2.46%) met the study criteria. Triage level 1 accounted for 16.18% (56 patients) with 29 patients (8.38%) with LSI. Trauma was an independent factor for LSI with adjusted odds ratio (95% CI) of 4.37 (1.49, 12.76). In conclusion, approximately 8.38% of these patients required LSI. Trauma cause was an independent predictor for LSI.

The Feasibility of Implementing the Flexible Surge Capacity Concept in Bangkok: Willing Participants and Educational Gaps.

The management of emergencies consists of a chain of actions with the support of staff, stuff, structure, and system, i.e., surge capacity. However, whenever the needs exceed the present resources, there should be flexibility in the system to employ other resources within communities, i.e., flexible surge capacity (FSC). This study aimed to investigate the possibility of creating alternative care facilities (ACFs) to relieve hospitals in Bangkok, Thailand. Using a Swedish questionnaire, quantitative data were compiled from facilities of interest and were completed with qualitative data obtained from interviews with key informants. Increasing interest to take part in a FSC system was identified among those interviewed. All medical facilities indicated an interest in offering minor treatments, while a select few expressed interest in offering psychosocial support or patient stabilization before transport to major hospitals and minor operations. The non-medical facilities interviewed proposed to serve food and provide spaces for the housing of victims. The lack of knowledge and scarcity of medical instruments and materials were some of the barriers to implementing the FSC response system. Despite some shortcomings, FSC seems to be applicable in Thailand. There is a need for educational initiatives, as well as a financial contingency to grant the sustainability of FSC.

Comparison of Accuracy and Speed in Computer-Assisted Versus Conventional Methods for Pediatric Drug Dose Calculation: A Scenario-Based Randomized Controlled Trial.

Pediatric emergency care is prone to medication errors in many aspects including prescriptions, administrations, and monitoring. This study was designed to assess the effects of computer-assisted calculation on reducing error rates and time to prescription of specific emergency drugs. We conducted a randomized crossover experimental study involving emergency medicine residents and paramedics in the Department of Emergency Medicine at Ramathibodi Hospital. Participants calculated and prescribed medications using both the conventional method and a computer-assisted method. Medication names, dosages, routes of administration, and time to prescription were collected and analyzed using logistic and quantile regression analysis. Of 562 prescriptions, we found significant differences between computer-assisted calculation and the conventional method in the calculation accuracy of overall medications, pediatric advanced life support (PALS) drugs, and sedative drugs (91.17% vs 67.26%, 86.54% vs 46.15%, and 89.29% vs 57.86%, respectively, P < .001). Moreover, there were significant differences in calculation time for overall medications, PALS drugs and sedative drugs (25 vs 47 seconds, P < .001), and computer-assisted calculation significantly decreased the gap in medication errors between doctors and paramedics (P < .001). We conclude that computer-assisted prescription calculation provides benefits over the conventional method in accuracy of all medication dosages and in time required for calculation, while enhancing the drug prescription ability of paramedics.

IQ-CPR Meter for Chest Compression Monitoring During Simulated Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation; a Comparative Study.

INTRODUCTION: Adequate chest compression is crucial for cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). There are several chest compression monitoring devices with different costs. This study aimed to evaluate the agreement rate of Improved Quality of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation meter (IQ-CPR meter) and automated external defibrillator (AED) in chest compression quality monitoring. METHODS: In this comparative study, participants were instructed to perform chest compression on the CPR manikins with the set rate of 110 times/minute for two minutes. The CPR manikins had two monitors: AED (R series®, Zoll company) and IQ-CPR meter. AED showed the depth and speed of chest compression on the screen, while IQ-CPR meter showed the depth of each chest compression by color light for quality of chest compression depth. Video-based analysis was used to compare the chest compression quality monitoring between the 2 devices. RESULTS: There were 27 participants in the study with a mean age and body mass index (standard deviation; SD) of 26.00 (5.65) years, and 22.93 (3.62) kg/m2 (70.37% male). The median (1st to 3rd quartile range) of chest compression experience was 3 (1.00-6.50) years. The mean (SD) of chest compression rate was 107 (5.29) times/minute. Based on Cohen's Kappa correlation, agreement between the IQ-CPR meter and the AED was 66.54%. CONCLUSION: The IQ-CPR meter had fair agreement with the computerized chest compression monitoring device with lower cost and simple, real time audiovisual feedback.

Diagnostic properties of a portable near-infrared spectroscopy to detect intracranial hematoma in traumatic brain injury patients.

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a major public health issue worldwide. A portable near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is a non-invasive device to detect intracranial hematoma. The advantages of the NIRS include real time results and non-radiation exposure. However, sensitivity and specificity of the NIRS for intracranial hematoma are varied. This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic properties of the NIRS in TBI patients to detect intracranial hematoma. This study was a diagnostic and prospective study conducted at the Emergency Department. The inclusion criteria were adult patients (age of 18 years or over) with moderate to high risk of all degrees of traumatic brain injury within 24 h after the injury. The primary endpoint of the study was a description of diagnostic properties of the NIRS compared with the CT brain. There were 47 patients enrolled in the study. Most of patients had Glasgow Coma Scale of 15 (44 patients; 93.62 %). Of those, 11 patients (23.40 %) had intracranial hematoma: subdural hematoma (n = 9), epidural hematoma (n = 1), intracerebral hematoma (n = 1), and subarachnoid hemorrhage (n = 3). One patient had subdural hematoma, epidural hematoma, intracerebral hematoma and subarachnoid hemorrhage. There were 31 patients had abnormal findings by the NIRS but only 11 patients had bleeding detected by the CT brain. There were 16 patients had negative results on both the NIRS and the CT brain. The sensitivity and specificity of the NIRS compared with the CT brain was 100 % and 44.4 %, respectively. The area under the ROC curve of the NIRS was 0.722. The median time to complete the NIRS examination was 3 min. In conclusion, the NIRS has high sensitivity and negative predictive value for intracranial hematoma detection in mild TBI patients with extra-axial hematomas.

Bag-Valve Mask versus Endotracheal Intubation in Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest on Return of Spontaneous Circulation: A National Database Study.

BACKGROUND: Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest is the main issue for pre-hospital emergency care. There are several airway managements during the out-of-hospital cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) such as endotracheal intubation (ETI) or alternative airway device: bag-valve mask (BVM). Data comparing both methods showed inconclusive results on survival and limited results on CPR outcome. This study aimed to add additional results on comparing the ETI and BVM in cardiac arrest outside hospitals; focused on the CPR outcome. METHODS: This study was a retrospective, analytical study. The inclusion criteria were adult patients (age of 18 years or over) with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, who received emergency life support, and received either BVM or ETI. Data were retrieved from the Information Technology of Emergency Medical Service. The outcome was a return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). RESULTS: During the study period, there were 1070 patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest who met the study criteria. Of those, 800 patients (74.77%) received BVM, while the other 270 patients (25.23%) received ETI. There were five significant factors between both groups including mean distance to scene, proportions of response time less than 8 mins, defibrillation, intravenous fluid administration, and adrenaline administration. There was no significant difference on the outcome: ROSC. The BVM group had slightly higher rate of ROSC than the ETI group (19.63% vs 15.56%; p value 0.148). CONCLUSION: The BVM and ETI had comparable ROSC rate for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest victims. However, the study population of the BVM group had less severe conditions and received faster treatment than the ETI group.

Adrenaline use as a poor predictor for the return of spontaneous circulation among victims of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest according to a national emergency medical services database.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine additional predictors of cardiopulmonary resuscitation success using a national emergency medical services (EMS) database. METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted by retrieving data from the Information Technology of Emergency Medical Service, a national EMS database. The inclusion criteria were adult patients (18 years old or over) who suffered from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and received emergency life support. The outcome was a return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). Predictors for ROSC were determined using multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: During the study period, 1070 patients met the study criteria, among whom 199 (18.60%) belonged to the ROSC group. Five factors were eligible for multivariate logistic regression analysis for predicting ROSC. Accordingly, only adrenaline administration was independently and negatively associated with ROSC with an adjusted odds ratio of 0.722 (95% confidence interval: 0.522, 0.997) and a Hosmer-Lemeshow Chi-square of 5.84 (P = 0.665). CONCLUSIONS: Adrenaline use may be a poor predictor for ROSC during out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

Are full-face helmets the most effective in preventing head and neck injury in motorcycle accidents? A meta-analysis.

Motorcycles are the most common type of vehicle involved in traffic deaths in developing countries. Although helmets can provide protection against injury, there is limited evidence available regarding which type of helmet best protects against head and neck injuries in this setting. This review was conducted based on articles in the PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases. We compared full-face helmets with other types of helmet with regard to head and neck injury prevention in road accidents involving motorcyclists. Of 702 studies, six were eligible with a total of 6,529 participants. When compared with partial and open helmets, the odds ratio of full-face helmets was 0.356 (95% CI of 0.280, 0.453) and 0.636 (95% CI of 0.453, 0.894), respectively, for reduction of head and neck injuries. In conclusion, full-face helmets reduced head and neck injuries in motorcycle accidents to a greater extent than other types of helmet. Policy makers should recommend that motorcyclists use full-face helmets.

Prehospital prediction of severe injury in road traffic injuries: A multicenter cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: To develop and validate a risk stratification model of severe injury (SI) and death to identify and prioritize road traffic injury (RTI) patients for transportation to an appropriate trauma center (TC). METHODS: A 2-phase multicenter-cross-sectional study with prospective data collection was collaboratively conducted using 9 dispatch centers (DC) across Thailand. Among the 9 included DC, 7 and 2 DCs were used for development and validation, respectively. RTI patients who were treated and transported to hospitals by advanced life support (ALS) response units were enrolled. Multiple logistic regression was used to derive risk prediction score of death in 48 h and SI (new injury severity score ≥ 16). Calibration/discrimination performances were explored. RESULTS: A total of 5359 and 2097 RTIs were used for development and external validation, respectively. Seven and 9 predictors among demographic data, mechanism of injury, physic data, EMS operation, and prehospital managements were significant predictors of death and SI, respectively. Risk prediction models fitted well with the developed data (O/E ratios of 1.00 (IQR: 0.69, 1.01) and 0.99 (IQR: 0.95, 1.05) for death and SI, respectively); and the C statistics of 0.966 (0.961, 0.972) and 0.913 (0.905, 0.922). The risk scores were further stratified as low, moderate and high risk. The derive models did not fit well with external data but they were improved after recalibrating the intercepts. However, the model was externally good/excellent discriminated with C statistics from 0.896 (0.871, 0.922) to 0.981 (0.971, 0.991). CONCLUSION: Risk prediction models of death and SI were developed with good calibration and excellent discrimination. The model should be useful for ALS response units in proper allocation of patients.

Predicting Difficult Intubation in Emergency Department by Intubation Assessment Score.

BACKGROUND: The difficult intubation is associated with failure of emergency tracheal intubation. This study aimed to develop and validate a model for predicting difficult intubation in emergency department (ED). METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in the ED. We collected data from all consecutive adult patients who underwent emergency tracheal intubation. Patients were excluded if they were intubated by low experience intubator. The difficult intubation was defined by grade III or IV of Cormack and Lehane classification. We used multivariable regression model to identify significant predictors of difficult intubation and weighted points proportional to the beta coefficient values. The ability to discriminate was quantified by using the area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AuROC). The bootstrapping method was used to validate the performance. RESULTS: A total of 1,212 intubations were analyzed. One hundred and fifty-seven intubations were enrolled in difficult intubation group. Five independence predictors were identified, and each was assigned a number of points proportional to its beta coefficient: male gender (one), large tongue (two), limit mouth opening (two), poor neck mobility (two), and presence of obstructed airway (three). Intubation assessment score model was created and applied to all subjects. The AuROC was 0.81 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.77 - 0.85) for the development dataset, and 0.80 (95% CI: 0.76 - 0.85) for the validation dataset. We defined three risk groups: low risk (zero to one points), intermediate risk (two to three points), and high risk (above three points), and the difficult intubation rate was 4.7%, 22.5%, and 53.6%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Intubation assessment score model was constructed from patients' simple characteristics and performed well in predicting difficult intubation and can discriminate between with and without difficult intubation.