Variation in Rates of Hospital Admission from the Emergency Department Among Medicare Patients at the Regional, Hospital, and Physician Levels.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Rates of admission from the emergency department (ED) vary widely across regions of the country, hospitals within regions, and physicians within hospitals. Our objective was to determine the extent to which variation in admission decisions was described by differences in admission rates at these 3 levels. This understanding will serve to better target interventions to modify rates of admission where appropriate. METHODS: In this cross-sectional observational cohort study, we analyzed Medicare fee-for-service claims for ED visits from 2012 to 2015 in a 20% random sample of beneficiaries. We first estimated the total regional-, hospital-, and physician-level variations in rates of admission and their proportions of the total variation after adjusting for patient and each level's covariates. We then estimated the extent to which each level's characteristics accounted for variation at that respective level. RESULTS: Our study sample included 5,778,218 visits with 45,491 physicians at 3,480 EDs across 306 hospital referral regions. The mean rate of admission was 38.9% and ranged from 21.4% to 53.0% for physicians at the 10th and 90th percentile of the distribution, respectively. The residual (unexplained) variations at the regional, hospital, and physician levels were 13.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.2 to 15.5%), 60.1% (57.1 to 62.9%), and 26.7% (26.4 to 26.9%), respectively. Regional, hospital, and physician characteristics accounted for 9.1% (95% CI, -5.6 to 23.8%), 51.1% (48.8 to 53.5%), and 2.7% (1.3 to 4.1%), respectively, of the explained variation at their respective levels. CONCLUSION: Within-area variation, both across hospitals within a region and across physicians within a hospital, is a more substantial component of observed variation in admission rates from the ED than regional level variation. These findings suggest that variation in admission rates is at least in part related to institutional norms and cultures as well as heterogeneity of physician decisionmaking within hospitals, both of which could be targets of interventions to modify rates of admission.

Reduction of opioid prescribing through the sharing of individual physician opioid prescribing practices.

BACKGROUND: Drug overdoses are the most common cause of accidental death in the United States, with the majority being attributed to opioids. High per capita opioid prescribing is correlated with higher rates of opioid abuse and death. We aimed to determine the impact of sharing individual prescribing data on the rates of opioid prescriptions written for patients discharged from the emergency department (ED). METHODS: This was a pre-post intervention at a single community ED. We compared opioid prescriptions written on patient discharge before and after an intervention consisting of sharing individual and comparison prescribing data. Clinicians at or over one standard deviation above the mean were notified via standard template electronic communication. RESULTS: For each period, we reported the median number of monthly prescriptions written by each clinician, accounting for the total number of patient discharges. The pre-intervention median was 12.5 prescriptions per 100 patient discharges (IQR 10-19) compared to 9 (IQR 6-11) in the post-intervention period (p < 0.001). This represents a 28% reduction in the overall rate of opioid prescriptions written per patient discharged. Using interrupted time series analysis for monthly rates, this was associated with a reduction in opioid prescriptions, showing a decrease of almost 9 prescriptions for every 100 discharges over the 6 months of the study (p = 0.032). CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrates the sharing of individual opioid prescribing data was associated with a reduction in opioid prescribing at a single institution.

Emergency Department Care for Patients with Limited English Proficiency: a Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Limited English proficiency (LEP) patients may be particularly vulnerable in the high acuity and fast-paced setting of the emergency department (ED). OBJECTIVE: To compare the care processes of LEP patients in the ED. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: ED in a large tertiary care academic medical center. PATIENTS: Adult LEP and English Proficient (EP) patients during their index presentation to the ED from September 1, 2013, to August 31, 2015. LEP patients were identified as those who selected a preferred language other than English when registering for care. MAIN MEASURES: Rates of diagnostic studies, admission, and return visits for those originally discharged from the ED. KEY RESULTS: We studied 57,435 visits of which 5241 (9.1%) were for patients with LEP. In adjusted analyses, LEP patients were more likely to receive an X-ray/ultrasound (OR 1.11, CI 1.03-1.19) and be admitted to the hospital (OR 1.09, CI 1.01-1.19). There was no difference in 72-h return visits (OR 0.98, CI 0.73-1.33). LEP patients presenting with complaints related to the cardiovascular system were more likely to receive a stress test (OR 1.51, CI 1.22-1.86), and those with gastrointestinal diagnoses were more likely to have an X-ray/ultrasound (OR 1.31, CI 1.02-1.68). In stratified analyses, Spanish speakers were less likely to be admitted (OR 0.8, CI 0.70-0.91), but those preferring "other" languages, which were all languages with < 500 patients, had a statistically significant higher adjusted rate of admission (OR 1.35, CI 1.17-1.57). CONCLUSIONS: ED patients with LEP experienced both increased rates of diagnostic testing and of hospital admission. Research is needed to examine why these differences occurred and if they represent inefficiencies in care.

Emergency Department Involvement in Accountable Care Organizations in Massachusetts: A Survey Study.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: We assess Massachusetts emergency department (ED) involvement and internal ED constructs within accountable care organization contracts. METHODS: An online survey was distributed to 70 Massachusetts ED directors. Questions attempted to assess involvement of EDs in accountable care organizations and the structures in place in EDs-from departmental resources to physician incentives-to help achieve accountable care organization goals of decreasing spending and improving quality. RESULTS: Of responding ED directors, 79% reported alignment between the ED and an accountable care organization. Almost all ED groups (88%) reported bearing no financial risk as a result of the accountable care organization contracts in which their organizations participated. Major obstacles to meeting accountable care organization objectives included care coordination challenges (62%) and lack of familiarity with accountable care organization goals (58%). The most common cost-reduction strategies included ED case management (85%) and information technology (61%). Limitations of this study include that information was self-reported by ED directors, a focus limited to Massachusetts, and a survey response rate of 47%. CONCLUSION: The ED directors perceived that the majority of physicians were not familiar with accountable care organization goals, many challenges remain in coordinating care for patients in the ED, and most EDs have no financial incentives tied to accountable care organizations. EDs in Massachusetts have begun to implement strategies aimed at reducing admissions, utilization, and overall cost, but these strategies are not widespread apart from case management, even in a state with heavy accountable care organization penetration. Our results suggest that Massachusetts EDs still lack clear directives and direct involvement in meeting accountable care organization goals.

Observation Care: Ethical and Legal Considerations for the Emergency Physician.

BACKGROUND: The Medicare observation rules remain controversial despite Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services revisions and the new 2-midnight rule. The increased financial risks for patients and heightened awareness of the rule have placed emergency physicians (EPs) at the center of the controversy. DISCUSSION: This article reviews the primary ethical and legal (particularly with respect to the Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act) implications of the existing observation rule for EPs and offers practical solutions for EPs faced with counseling patients on the meaning and ramifications of the observation rule. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that while we believe it does not violate the intent of the Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act to respond to patient questions about their admission status, the observation rules challenge the ethical principles of transparency related to the physician-patient relationship and justice as fairness. Guidance for physicians is offered to improve transparency and patient fairness.

Increased use of the emergency department after health care reform in Massachusetts.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: With implementation of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, 30 million individuals are predicted to gain access to health insurance. The experience in Massachusetts, which implemented a similar reform beginning in 2006, should provide important lessons about the effect of health care reform on emergency department (ED) utilization. Our objective is to understand the extent to which Massachusetts health care reform was associated with changes in ED utilization. METHODS: We compared changes in ED utilization at the population level for individuals from areas of the state that were affected minimally by health care reform with those from areas that were affected the most, as well as for those younger than 65 years and aged 65 years or older. We used a difference-in-differences identification strategy to compare rates of ED visits in the prereform period, during the reform, and in the postreform period. Because we did not have population-level data on insurance status, we estimated area-level insurance rates by using the percentage of actual visits made during each period by individuals with insurance. RESULTS: We studied 13.3 million ED visits during 2004 to 2009. Increasing insurance coverage in Massachusetts was associated with increasing use of the ED; these results were consistent across all specifications, including the younger than 65 years versus aged 65 years or older comparison. Depending on the model used, the implementation of health care reform was estimated to result in an increase in ED visits per year of between 0.2% and 1.2% within reform and 0.2% and 2.2% postreform compared with the prereform period. CONCLUSION: The implementation of health care reform in Massachusetts was associated with a small but consistent increase in the use of the ED across the state. Whether this was due to the elimination of financial barriers to seeking care in the ED, a persistent shortage in access to primary care for those with insurance, or some other cause is not entirely clear and will need to be addressed in future research.

Emergency Department Visits And Hospital Capacity In The US: Trends In The Medicare Population During The COVID-19 Pandemic.

Although emergency department (ED) and hospital overcrowding were reported during the later parts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the true extent and potential causes of this overcrowding remain unclear. Using data on the traditional fee-for-service Medicare population, we examined patterns in ED and hospital use during the period 2019-22. We evaluated trends in ED visits, rates of admission from the ED, and thirty-day mortality, as well as measures suggestive of hospital capacity, including hospital Medicare census, length-of-stay, and discharge destination. We found that ED visits remained below baseline throughout the study period, with the standardized number of visits at the end of the study period being approximately 25 percent lower than baseline. Longer length-of-stay persisted through 2022, whereas hospital census was considerably above baseline until stabilizing just above baseline in 2022. Rates of discharge to postacute facilities initially declined and then leveled off at 2 percent below baseline in 2022. These results suggest that widespread reports of overcrowding were not driven by a resurgence in ED visits. Nonetheless, length-of-stay remains higher, presumably related to increased acuity and reduced available bed capacity in the postacute care system.

Clinician Risk Tolerance and Rates of Admission From the Emergency Department.

Importance: Much remains unknown about the extent of and factors that influence clinician-level variation in rates of admission from the emergency department (ED). In particular, emergency clinician risk tolerance is a potentially important attribute, but it is not well defined in terms of its association with the decision to admit. Objective: To further characterize this variation in rates of admission from the ED and to determine whether clinician risk attitudes are associated with the propensity to admit. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this observational cohort study, data were analyzed from the Massachusetts All Payer Claims Database to identify all ED visits from October 2015 through December 2017 with any form of commercial insurance or Medicaid. ED visits were then linked to treating clinicians and their risk tolerance scores obtained in a separate statewide survey to examine the association between risk tolerance and the decision to admit. Statistical analysis was performed from 2022 to 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: The ratio between observed and projected admission rates was computed, controlling for hospital, and then plotted against the projected admission rates to find the extent of variation. Pearson correlation coefficients were then used to examine the association between the mean projected rate of admission and the difference between actual and projected rates of admission. The consistency of clinician admission practices across a range of the most common conditions resulting in admission were then assessed to understand whether admission decisions were consistent across different conditions. Finally, an assessment was made as to whether the extent of deviation from the expected admission rates at an individual level was associated with clinician risk tolerance. Results: The study sample included 392 676 ED visits seen by 691 emergency clinicians. Among patients seen for ED visits, 221 077 (56.3%) were female, and 236 783 (60.3%) were 45 years of age or older; 178 890 visits (46.5%) were for patients insured by Medicaid, 96 947 (25.2%) were for those with commercial insurance, 71 171 (18.5%) were Medicare Part B or Medicare Advantage, and the remaining 37 702 (9.8%) were other insurance category. Of the 691 clinicians, 429 (62.6%) were male; mean (SD) age was 46.5 (9.8) years; and 72 (10.4%) were Asian, 13 (1.9%) were Black, 577 (83.5%) were White, and 29 (4.2%) were other race. Admission rates across the clinicians included ranged from 36.3% at the 25th percentile to 48.0% at the 75th percentile (median, 42.1%). Overall, there was substantial variation in admission rates across clinicians; physicians were just as likely to overadmit or underadmit across the range of projected rates of admission (Pearson correlation coefficient, 0.046 [P = .23]). There also was weak consistency in admission rates across the most common clinical conditions, with intraclass correlations ranging from 0.09 (95% CI, 0.02-0.17) for genitourinary/syncope to 0.48 (95% CI, 0.42-0.53) for cardiac/syncope. Greater clinician risk tolerance (as measured by the Risk Tolerance Scale) was associated with a statistically significant tendency to admit less than the projected admission rate (coefficient, -0.09 [P = .04]). The other scales studied revealed no significant associations. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of ED visits from Massachusetts, there was statistically significant variation between ED clinicians in admission rates and little consistency in admission tendencies across different conditions. Admission tendencies were minimally associated with clinician innate risk tolerance as assessed by this study's measures; further research relying on a broad range of measures of risk tolerance is needed to better understand the role of clinician attitudes toward risk in explaining practice patterns and to identify additional factors that may be associated with variation at the clinician level.

A novel approach to identifying targets for cost reduction in the emergency department.

This article introduces a novel framework that classifies emergency department (ED) visits according to broad categories of severity, identifying those categories of visits that present the most potential for reducing costs associated with the ED. Although cost savings directly attributable to the ED are apt to be an important emphasis of organizations operating under reformed payment systems, our framework suggests that a focus on diverting low-acuity visits away from the ED would result in far less savings compared with strategies aimed at reducing admissions and to a lesser extent improving the efficiency of ED care for intermediate or complex conditions. We conclude that targeting these categories, rather than minor injuries/illnesses, should be the primary focus of cost-reduction strategies from the ED. Given this understanding, we then discuss the implications of these findings on the financing of an emergency care system that needs to account for the required fixed costs of "stand-by capacity" of the ED and explore ways in which the ED can be better integrated into a patient-centered health care system.

Association of Functional Status, Cognition, Social Support, and Geriatric Syndrome With Admission From the Emergency Department.

Importance: The role of patient-level factors that are unrelated to the specific clinical condition leading to an emergency department (ED) visit, such as functional status, cognitive status, social supports, and geriatric syndromes, in admission decisions is not well understood, partly because these data are not available in administrative databases. Objective: To determine the extent to which patient-level factors are associated with rates of hospital admission from the ED. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study analyzed survey data collected from participants (or their proxies, such as family members) enrolled in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2018. These HRS data were linked to Medicare fee-for-service claims data from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2018. Information on functional status, cognitive status, social supports, and geriatric syndromes was obtained from the HRS data, whereas ED visits, subsequent hospital admission or ED discharge, and other claims-derived comorbidities and sociodemographic characteristics were obtained from Medicare data. Data were analyzed from September 2021 to April 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome measure was hospital admission after an ED visit. A baseline logistic regression model was estimated, with a binary indicator of admission as the dependent variable of interest. For each primary variable of interest derived from the HRS data, the model was reestimated, including the HRS variable of interest as an independent variable. For each of these models, the odds ratio (OR) and average marginal effect (AME) of changing the value of the variable of interest were calculated. Results: A total of 42 392 ED visits by 11 783 unique patients were included. At the time of the ED visit, patients had a mean (SD) age of 77.4 (9.6) years, and visits were predominantly for female (25 719 visits [60.7%]) and White (32 148 visits [75.8%]) individuals. The overall percentage of patients admitted was 42.5%. After controlling for ED diagnosis and demographic characteristics, functional status, cognition status, and social supports all were associated with the likelihood of admission. For instance, difficulty performing 5 activities of daily living was associated with an 8.5-percentage point (OR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.29-1.66) AME increase in the likelihood of admission. Having dementia was associated with an AME increase in the likelihood of admission of 4.6 percentage points (OR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.14-1.33). Living with a spouse was associated with an AME decrease in the likelihood of admission of 3.9 percentage points (OR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79-0.89), and having children living within 10 miles was associated with an AME decrease in the likelihood of admission of 5.0 percentage points (OR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.71-0.89). Other common geriatric syndromes, including trouble falling asleep, waking early, trouble with vision, glaucoma or cataract, use of hearing aids or trouble with hearing, falls in past 2 years, incontinence, depression, and polypharmacy, were not meaningfully associated with the likelihood of admission. Conclusion and Relevance: Results of this cohort study suggest that the key patient-level characteristics, including social supports, cognitive status, and functional status, were associated with the decision to admit older patients to the hospital from the ED. These factors are critical to consider when devising strategies to reduce low-value admissions among older adult patients from the ED.

Disclosure, apology, and offer programs: stakeholders' views of barriers to and strategies for broad implementation.

CONTEXT: The Disclosure, Apology, and Offer (DA&O) model, a response to patient injuries caused by medical care, is an innovative approach receiving national attention for its early success as an alternative to the existing inherently adversarial, inefficient, and inequitable medical liability system. Examples of DA&O programs, however, are few. METHODS: Through key informant interviews, we investigated the potential for more widespread implementation of this model by provider organizations and liability insurers, defining barriers to implementation and strategies for overcoming them. Our study focused on Massachusetts, but we also explored themes that are broadly generalizable to other states. FINDINGS: We found strong support for the DA&O model among key stakeholders, who cited its benefits for both the liability system and patient safety. The respondents did not perceive any insurmountable barriers to broad implementation, and they identified strategies that could be pursued relatively quickly. Such solutions would permit a range of organizations to implement the model without legislative hurdles. CONCLUSIONS: Although more data are needed about the outcomes of DA&O programs, the model holds considerable promise for transforming the current approach to medical liability and patient safety.

Weak correlations in health services research: Weak relationships or common error?

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether the correlation between a provider's effect on one population of patients and the same provider's effect on another population is underestimated if the effects for each population are estimated separately as opposed to being jointly modeled as random effects, and to characterize how the impact of the estimation procedure varies with sample size. DATA SOURCES: Medicare claims and enrollment data on emergency department (ED) visits, including patient characteristics, the patient's hospitalization status, and identification of the doctor responsible for the decision to hospitalize the patient. STUDY DESIGN: We used a three-pronged investigation consisting of analytical derivation, simulation experiments, and analysis of administrative data to demonstrate the fallibility of stratified estimation. Under each investigation method, results are compared between the joint modeling approach to those based on stratified analyses. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: We used data on ED visits from administrative claims from traditional (fee-for-service) Medicare from January 2012 through September 2015. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The simulation analysis demonstrates that the joint modeling approach is generally close to unbiased, whereas the stratified approach can be severely biased in small samples, a consequence of joint modeling benefitting from bivariate shrinkage and the stratified approach being compromised by measurement error. In the administrative data analyses, the estimated correlation of doctor admission tendencies between female and male patients was estimated to be 0.98 under the joint model but only 0.38 using stratified estimation. The analogous correlations for White and non-White patients are 0.99 and 0.28 and for Medicaid dual-eligible and non-dual-eligible patients are 0.99 and 0.31, respectively. These results are consistent with the analytical derivations. CONCLUSIONS: Joint modeling targets the parameter of primary interest. In the case of population correlations, it yields estimates that are substantially less biased and higher in magnitude than naive estimators that post-process the estimates obtained from stratified models.

Emergency department utilization after the implementation of Massachusetts health reform.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Health care reform in Massachusetts improved access to health insurance, but the extent to which reform affected utilization of the emergency department (ED) for conditions potentially amenable to primary care is unclear. Our objective is to determine the relationship between health reform and ED use for low-severity conditions. METHODS: We studied ED visits, using a convenience sample of 11 Massachusetts hospitals for identical 9-month periods before and after health care reform legislation was implemented in 2006. Individuals most affected by the health reform law (the uninsured and low-income populations covered by the publicly subsidized insurance products) were compared with individuals unlikely to be affected by the legislation (those with Medicare or private insurance). Our main outcome measure was the rate of overall and low-severity ED visits for the study population and the comparison population during the period before and after health reform implementation. RESULTS: Total visits increased from 424,878 in 2006 to 442,102 in 2008. Low-severity visits among publicly subsidized or uninsured patients decreased from 43.8% to 41.2% of total visits for that group (difference=2.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.25% to 2.85%), whereas low-severity visits for privately insured and Medicare patients decreased from 35.7% to 34.9% of total visits for that group (difference=0.8%; 95% CI 0.62% to 0.98%), for a difference in differences of 1.8% (95% CI 1.7% to 1.9%). CONCLUSION: Although overall ED volume continues to increase, Massachusetts health reform was associated with a small but statistically significant decrease in the rate of low-severity visits for those populations most affected by health reform compared with a comparison population of individuals less likely to be affected by the reform. Our findings suggest that access to health insurance is only one of a multitude of factors affecting utilization of the ED.

Attitudes toward risk among emergency physicians and advanced practice clinicians in Massachusetts.

OBJECTIVE: Risk aversion is a personality trait influential to decision making in medicine. Little is known about how emergency department (ED) clinicians differ in their attitudes toward risk taking. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of practicing ED clinicians (physicians and advanced practice clinicians [APCs]) in Massachusetts using the following 4 existing validated scales: the Risk-Taking Scale (RTS), Stress from Uncertainty Scale (SUS), the Fear of Malpractice Scale (FMS), and the Need for (Cognitive) Closure Scale (NCC). We used Cronbach's α to assess the reliability of each scale and performed multivariable linear regressions to analyze the association between the score for each scale and clinician characteristics. RESULTS: Of 1458 ED clinicians recruited for participation, 1116 (76.5%) responded from 93% of acute care hospitals in Massachusetts. Each of the 4 scales demonstrated high internal consistency reliability with Cronbach's αs ranging from 0.76 to 0.92. The 4 scales also were moderately correlated with one another (0.08 to 0.54; all P < 0.05). The multivariable results demonstrated differences between physicians and APCs, with physicians showing a greater tolerance for risk or uncertainty (NCC difference, -3.58 [95% confidence interval, CI, -5.26 to -1.90]; SUS difference, -3.14 [95% CI: -4.99 to -1.29]) and a higher concern about malpractice (FMS difference, 1.14 [95% CI, 0.11-2.17]). Differences were also observed based on clinician age (a proxy for years of experience), with greater age associated with greater tolerance of risk or uncertainty (age older than 50 years compared with age 35 years and younger; NCC difference, -2.84 [95% CI, -4.69 to -1.00]; SUS difference, -4.71 [95% CI, -6,74 to -2.68]) and less concern about malpractice (FMS difference, -3.19 [95% CI, -4.31 to -2.06]). There were no appreciable differences based on sex, and there were no consistent associations between scale scores and the practice and payment characteristics assessed. CONCLUSION: We found that risk attitudes of ED clinicians were associated with type of training (physician vs APC) and age (experience). These differences suggest one possible explanation for the observed differences in decision making.

Variation In Emergency Department Admission Rates Among Medicare Patients: Does The Physician Matter?

Hospitalizations account for the largest share of health care spending. New payment models increasingly encourage health care providers to reduce hospital admissions. Although emergency department (ED) physicians play a major role in the decision to admit a patient, the extent to which admission rates vary among ED physicians even within the same hospital remains poorly understood. In this study we examined physician-level variation in ED admission rates for Medicare patients. We found meaningful variation in admission rates: The mean physician-level adjusted admission rate was 38.9 percent and ranged from 32.2 percent to 45.6 percent for physicians at the tenth and ninetieth percentiles, respectively, of the estimated distribution within the same hospital. In contrast, the predicted risk for admission based on patient characteristics varied little among these physicians, suggesting that the variation in admission rates was not due to differences in patients seen. Our results suggest that strategies targeting physician decision making could modify (by either increasing or decreasing when appropriate) rates of admissions.

Analysis of Consistency in Emergency Department Physician Variation in Propensity for Admission Across Patient Sociodemographic Groups.

Importance: Sociodemographic disparities in health care and variation in physician practice patterns have been well documented; however, the contribution of variation in individual physician care practices to health disparities is challenging to quantify. Emergency department (ED) physicians vary in their propensity to admit patients. The consistency of this variation across sociodemographic groups may help determine whether physician-specific factors are associated with care differences between patient groups. Objective: To estimate the consistency of ED physician admission propensities across categories of patient sex, race and ethnicity, and Medicaid enrollment. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study analyzed Medicare fee-for-service claims for ED visits from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2019, in a 10% random sample of hospitals. The allocation of patients to ED physicians in the acute care setting was used to isolate physician-level variation in admission rates that reflects variation in physician decision-making. Multi-level models with physician random effects and hospital fixed effects were used to estimate the within-hospital physician variation in admission propensity for different patient sociodemographic subgroups and the covariation in these propensities between subgroups (consistency), adjusting for primary diagnosis and comorbidities. Main Outcomes and Measures: Admission from the ED. Results: The analysis included 4 567 760 ED visits involving 2 334 361 beneficiaries and 15 767 physicians in 396 EDs. The mean (SD) age of the beneficiaries was 78 (8.2) years, 2 700 661 visits (59.1%) were by women, and most patients (3 839 055 [84.1%]) were not eligible for Medicaid. Of 4 473 978 race and ethnicity reports on enrollment, 103 699 patients (2.3%) were Asian/Pacific Islander, 421 588 (9.4%) were Black, 257 422 (5.8%) were Hispanic, and 3 691 269 (82.5%) were non-Hispanic White. Within hospitals, adjusted rates of admission were higher for men (36.8%; 95% CI, 36.8%-36.9%) than for women (33.7%; 95% CI, 33.7%-33.8%); higher for non-Hispanic White (36.0%; 95% CI, 35.9%-36.0%) than for Asian/Pacific Islander (33.6%; 95% CI, 33.3%-33.9%), Black (30.2%; 95% CI, 30.0%-30.3%), or Hispanic (31.1%; 95% CI, 30.9%-31.2%) beneficiaries; and higher for beneficiaries dually enrolled in Medicaid (36.3%; 95% CI, 36.2%-36.5%) than for those who were not (34.7%; 95% CI, 34.7%-34.8%). Within hospitals, physicians varied in the percentage of patients admitted, ranging from 22.4% for physicians at the 10th percentile to 47.6% for physicians at the 90th percentile of the estimated distribution. Physician admission propensities were correlated between men and women (r = 0.99), Black and non-Hispanic White patients (r = 0.98), and patients who were dually enrolled and not dually enrolled in Medicaid (r = 0.98). Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study indicated that, although overall rates of admission differ systematically by patient sociodemographic factors, an individual physician's propensity to admit relative to other physicians appears to be applied consistently across sociodemographic groups of patients.

National Trends In ED Visits, Hospital Admissions, And Mortality For Medicare Patients During The COVID-19 Pandemic.

Concerns about avoidance or delays in seeking emergency care during the COVID-19 pandemic are widespread, but national data on emergency department (ED) visits and subsequent rates of hospitalization and outcomes are lacking. Using data on all traditional Medicare beneficiaries in the US from October 1, 2018, to September 30, 2020, we examined trends in ED visits and rates of hospitalization and thirty-day mortality conditional on an ED visit for non-COVID-19 conditions during several stages of the pandemic and for areas that were considered COVID-19 hot spots versus those that were not. We found reductions in ED visits that were largest by the first week of April 2020 (52 percent relative decrease), with volume recovering somewhat by mid-June (25 percent relative decrease). These reductions were of similar magnitude in counties that were and were not designated as COVID-19 hot spots. There was an early increase in hospitalizations and in the relative risk for thirty-day mortality, starting with the first surge of the pandemic, peaking at just over a 2-percentage-point increase. These results suggest that patients were presenting with more serious illness, perhaps related to delays in seeking care.

The effect of a CT and MR preauthorization program on ED utilization.

OBJECTIVES: To determine if a new outpatient preauthorization process for radiologic studies was associated with a change in emergency department (ED) CT and MRI utilization rates. METHODS: This was a retrospective study set in an urban tertiary teaching hospital. Subjects included all nonadmitted ED patients who had either a CT or MRI during a control or preauthorization period. The study group consisted of those patients whose insurance required preauthorization. The control group consisted of those patients for whom preauthorization was not required. We used a multiple regression with autoregressive error adjusting for seasonal and monthly variation to obtain the rates of change of CT and MRI usage over time for the control and preauthorization periods. RESULTS: The control period consisted of 29,303 ED visits over 54 weeks not resulting in hospital admission. The preauthorization period contained 33,858 patients over 64 weeks. The baseline ordering of CT and MRI was not significantly different between the groups. After controlling for seasonal and monthly variation, our results demonstrated that while both insurance groups demonstrated an increase in use of CT and MRI from the control to preauthorization periods, there is a statistically significant increase only in the rate of MRI utilization in the study group during the preauthorization period. CONCLUSION: A telephone preauthorization process for radiological studies produced a statistically significant change in the rate of ordering MRI studies, but not CT, in the study group. We conclude that this preauthorization process may have resulted in additional ED visits for outpatient MR scans.