Minimizing the impacts of the ammonia economy on the nitrogen cycle and climate.

Ammonia (NH3) is an attractive low-carbon fuel and hydrogen carrier. However, losses and inefficiencies across the value chain could result in reactive nitrogen emissions (NH3, NOx, and N2O), negatively impacting air quality, the environment, human health, and climate. A relatively robust ammonia economy (30 EJ/y) could perturb the global nitrogen cycle by up to 65 Mt/y with a 5% nitrogen loss rate, equivalent to 50% of the current global perturbation caused by fertilizers. Moreover, the emission rate of nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting molecule, determines whether ammonia combustion has a greenhouse footprint comparable to renewable energy sources or higher than coal (100 to 1,400 gCO2e/kWh). The success of the ammonia economy hence hinges on adopting optimal practices and technologies that minimize reactive nitrogen emissions. We discuss how this constraint should be included in the ongoing broad engineering research to reduce environmental concerns and prevent the lock-in of high-leakage practices.

Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy.

Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population.

Inequality, climate impacts on the future poor, and carbon prices.

Integrated assessment models of climate and the economy provide estimates of the social cost of carbon and inform climate policy. We create a variant of the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE)-a regionally disaggregated version of the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE)-in which we introduce a more fine-grained representation of economic inequalities within the model's regions. This allows us to model the common observation that climate change impacts are not evenly distributed within regions and that poorer people are more vulnerable than the rest of the population. Our results suggest that this is important to the social cost of carbon-as significant, potentially, for the optimal carbon price as the debate between Stern and Nordhaus on discounting.

The impact of human health co-benefits on evaluations of global climate policy.

The health co-benefits of CO2 mitigation can provide a strong incentive for climate policy through reductions in air pollutant emissions that occur when targeting shared sources. However, reducing air pollutant emissions may also have an important co-harm, as the aerosols they form produce net cooling overall. Nevertheless, aerosol impacts have not been fully incorporated into cost-benefit modeling that estimates how much the world should optimally mitigate. Here we find that when both co-benefits and co-harms are taken fully into account, optimal climate policy results in immediate net benefits globally, overturning previous findings from cost-benefit models that omit these effects. The global health benefits from climate policy could reach trillions of dollars annually, but will importantly depend on the air quality policies that nations adopt independently of climate change. Depending on how society values better health, economically optimal levels of mitigation may be consistent with a target of 2 °C or lower.

The comparative importance for optimal climate policy of discounting, inequalities and catastrophes.

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate and the economy provide estimates of the social cost of carbon and inform climate policy. With the Nested Inequalities Climate Economy model (NICE) (Dennig et al. PNAS 112:15,827-15,832, 2015), which is based on Nordhaus's Regional Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy (RICE), but also includes inequalities within regions, we investigate the comparative importance of several factors-namely, time preference, inequality aversion, intraregional inequalities in the distribution of both damage and mitigation cost and the damage function. We do so by computing optimal carbon price trajectories that arise from the wide variety of combinations that are possible given the prevailing range of disagreement over each factor. This provides answers to a number of questions, including Thomas Schelling's conjecture that properly accounting for inequalities could lead the inequality aversion parameter to have an effect opposite to what is suggested by the Ramsey equation.