Professionalism-training in undergraduate medical education in a multi-cultural, multi-ethnic setting in the Gulf Region: an exploration of reflective essays.

BACKGROUND: Despite the established need to prioritize professionalism-training in developing future physicians, very few medical programs in the Gulf Region embed in their curricula discrete contextualized courses aimed at developing the corresponding competencies, while fostering self-directed learning. This study aims at exploring the perception of undergraduate medical students in a multi-cultural, multi-ethnic setting regarding their understanding of, and personal experience with professionalism through their engagement with the content of an innovative curriculum-based professionalism course, offered at a Medical School in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. METHODS: The study used a qualitative phenomenological research design. Out of 33 students, 29 students had submitted reflective essays. The content of these essays was inductively analyzed following a six-step framework for conducting thematic analysis. The framework's steps include familiarizing oneself with the data, generating initial codes, searching for themes, reviewing themes, defining and naming themes, and producing the report. FINDINGS: The inductive qualitative analysis generated the Professionalism Learning Journey model. This conceptual model includes four interconnected themes: Awareness, Acknowledgement, Realization, and Application. The generated model depicts the trajectory that the learners appear to experience while they are engaging with the content of the course. CONCLUSION: Integrating a professionalism-training course into an undergraduate medical curriculum is likely to be positively appraised by the learners. It raises their awareness, enables them to value the subject matter and the sophistication of its application, and empowers them to put into practice the taught principles, on an individual basis and collectively. This is especially true when the course is entrenched in constructivism experiential learning theory and designed to foster self-directed learning. The introduced conceptual model, in conjunction with the innovative professionalism-training course curriculum, can serve as a template for other competencies and other schools.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores Predict Patients Under Surveillance at Low Risk of Benefit and High Risk of Harm.

AIMS: Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended for patients with cirrhosis. Multiple risk scores aim to stratify HCC risk, potentially allowing individualized surveillance strategies. We sought to validate four risk scores and quantify the consequences of surveillance via the calculation of numbers needed to benefit (NNB) and harm (NNH) according to classification by risk score strata. METHODS: Data were collected on 482 patients with cirrhosis during 2013-2014, with follow-up until 31/12/2019. Risk scores (aMAP, Toronto risk index, ADRESS HCC, HCC risk score) were derived from index clinic results. The area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated for each. Additionally, per-risk strata, NNB was calculated as total surveillance ultrasounds per surveillance diagnosed early HCC (stage 0/A) and NNH as total ultrasounds performed per false positive (abnormal surveillance with normal follow-up imaging). RESULTS: 22 (4.6%) patients developed HCC. 77% (17/22) were diagnosed through surveillance, of which 13/17 (76%) were early stage. There were 88 false positives and no false negatives (normal surveillance result however subsequent HCC detection). Overall NNB and NNH were 241 and 36, respectively. No score was significantly superior using AUC. Patients classified as low risk demonstrated no surveillance benefit (AMAP, THRI) or had a high NNB of > 300/900 (ADRESS HCC, HCC risk score), with low NNH (24-38). CONCLUSION: Given the lack of benefit and increased harm through false positives in low-risk groups, a risk-based surveillance strategy may have the potential to reduce patient harm and increase benefit from HCC surveillance. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: This was not a clinical trial and the study was not pre-registered.

The relationship of online pre-recorded neurology mini-lectures to medical student assessment: a pilot study.

INTRODUCTION: eLearning has become an essential part of medical education. However, there is a lack of published research on student engagement with online pre-recorded mini-lectures and its relation to assessment. The aim of this pilot study is to explore the relationship between newly introduced neurology pre-recorded mini-lectures and undergraduate medical students engagement and assessment. This may encourage the wider use of mini-lectures in undergraduate medical curricula. METHODS: The engagement of medical students with 48 online pre-recorded neurology mini-lectures was assessed through a Learning Management System. To measure engagement, data was stratified according to the number of watched/downloaded mini-lectures. A point system was used (out of 5): - 1 point = watching/downloading 0-10 mini-lectures, 2 points = watching/downloading 11-20 mini-lectures, 3 points = watching/downloading 21-30 mini-lectures, 4 points = watching/downloading 31-40 mini-lectures and, 5 points = watching/downloading 41-48 mini-lectures. The students' engagement was correlated with their neurology assessments [Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE), and knowledge-based assessment 10 Multiple Choice Questions (MCQs) and one 10-mark Short Answer Question, (SAQ)], internal medicine grade and annual grade point average (GPA) using the Pearson correlation coefficient. RESULTS: The mean engagement of 34, Year 5, medical students is 3.9/5. There is a significant positive correlation between engagement and internal medicine grade (r = 0.35, p = 0.044). There is a moderate correlation between engagement and neurology OSCE (r = 0.23), annual Year 5 GPA (r = 0.23), neurology knowledge-based score (r = 0.22) and composite neurology knowledge/OSCE (r = 0.27). The knowledge-based assessment included SAQ and MCQs: there was a moderate correlation with SAQ (r = 0.30), but a weak negative correlation with the MCQs (r =-0.11). Sub-groups analysis comparing the top- and low- or non- engaging students made these weaker correlations stronger. CONCLUSION: This pilot study indicates a high rate of engagement with an online pre-recorded mini-lectures resource and evidence of moderate correlation between engagement and assessment. Online pre-recorded mini-lectures should be used more in delivering the curriculum contents of the clinical clerkships. Further studies are needed to evaluate the relation and the impact of the mini-lectures on assessment.

Clinical learning environments across two different healthcare settings using the undergraduate clinical education environment measure.

BACKGROUND: The clinical placements of our medical students are almost equally distributed across private and public sectors. This study aims to assess medical students' perceptions of their Clinical learning Environment (CLE) across these two different healthcare settings, using the Undergraduate Clinical Education Environment Measure (UCEEM). METHODS: 76 undergraduate medical students (Year 5 and 6), were invited to participate. Data were collected using an online UCEEM with additional questions related to demographics and case load exposure. The UCEEM consists of two overarching domains of experiential learning and social participation, with four subdomains of learning opportunities, preparedness, workplace interaction, and inclusion. RESULTS: 38 questionnaires were received. Of 225 responses to the individual UCEEM items, 51 (22.6%) scored a mean of ≥ 4 (range 4-4.5, representing strong areas), 31 (13.7%) scored a mean of ≤ 3 (range 2.1-3, needing attention) and 143 (63.6%) scored a mean of 3.1-3.9 (areas that could be improved). The majority (63%) of the case load exposure responses scored a mean of ≥ 4 (range 4-4.5). Compared to the private sittings, there is a significant reduction in total UCEEM (p = 0.008), preparedness for student entry (p = 0.003), and overarching dimension of social participation (p = 0.000) scores for the public sector. Similarly, both workplace interaction patterns and student inclusion and equal treatment scored significantly lower for the public sector (p = 0.000 and p = 0.011 respectively). Two out of three case load exposure items scored significantly higher for the public sector (p = 0.000). DISCUSSION: The students' CLE perceptions were generally positive. The lower UCEEM ratings in the public sector items were related to student entry preparedness, workplace interactions, student inclusiveness and workforce equity of treatment. In contrast the students were exposed to more variety and larger number of patients in the public sector. These differences indicated some significantly different learning environments between the two sectors.

Rebleeding in peptic ulcer bleeding - a nationwide cohort study of 19,537 patients.

BACKGROUND: Rebleeding is a frequent complication of peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB). The associated prognosis remains rather unclear because previous studies generally also included non-ulcer lesions. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to identify predictors for rebleeding; clarify the prognostic consequence of rebleeding; and develop a score for predicting rebleeding. METHODS: Nationwide cohort study of consecutive patients presenting to hospital with PUB in Denmark from 2006-2014. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify predictors for rebleeding, evaluate the association between rebleeding and 30-day mortality, and develop a score to predict rebleeding. Patients with persistent bleeding were excluded. RESULTS: Among 19,258 patients (mean age 74 years, mean ASA-score 2.4), 10.8% rebled, and 10.2% died. Strongest predictors for rebleeding were endoscopic high-risk stigmata of bleeding (Odds Ratio (OR): 2.12 [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.91-2.36]), bleeding from duodenal ulcers (OR: 1.87 [95% CI: 1.69-2.08]), and presentation with hemodynamic instability (OR: 1.55 [95% CI: 1.38-1.73]). Among patients with all three factors (7.9% of total), 24% rebled, 50% with rebleeding failed endoscopic therapy, and 23% died. Rebleeding was associated with increased mortality (OR: 2.04 [95% CI: 1.78-2.32]). We were unable to develop an accurate score to predict rebleeding. CONCLUSION: Rebleeding occurs in ∼10% of patients with PUB and is overall associated with a two-fold increase in 30-day mortality. Patients with hemodynamic instability, duodenal ulcers, and high-risk endoscopic stigmata are at highest risk of rebleeding. When rebleeding occurs in such patients, consultation with surgery and/or interventional radiology should be obtained prior to repeat endoscopy.

ABC score: a new risk score that accurately predicts mortality in acute upper and lower gastrointestinal bleeding: an international multicentre study.

OBJECTIVES: Existing scores are not accurate at predicting mortality in upper (UGIB) and lower (LGIB) gastrointestinal bleeding. We aimed to develop and validate a new pre-endoscopy score for predicting mortality in both UGIB and LGIB. DESIGN AND SETTING: International cohort study. Patients presenting to hospital with UGIB at six international centres were used to develop a risk score for predicting mortality using regression analyses. The score's performance in UGIB and LGIB was externally validated and compared with existing scores using four international datasets. We calculated areas under receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROCs), sensitivities, specificities and outcome among patients classified as low risk and high risk. PARTICIPANTS AND RESULTS: We included 3012 UGIB patients in the development cohort, and 4019 UGIB and 2336 LGIB patients in the validation cohorts. Age, Blood tests and Comorbidities (ABC) score was closer associated with mortality in UGIB and LGIB (AUROCs: 0.81-84) than existing scores (AUROCs: 0.65-0.75; p≤0.02). In UGIB, patients with low ABC score (≤3), medium ABC score (4-7) and high ABC score (≥8) had 30-day mortality rates of 1.0%, 7.0% and 25%, respectively. Patients classified low risk using ABC score had lower mortality than those classified low risk with AIMS65 (threshold ≤1) (1.0 vs 4.5%; p<0.001). In LGIB, patients with low, medium and high ABC scores had in-hospital mortality rates of 0.6%, 6.3% and 18%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to previous scores, ABC score has good performance for predicting mortality in both UGIB and LGIB, allowing early identification and targeted management of patients at high or low risk of death.

Validation of a Machine Learning Model That Outperforms Clinical Risk Scoring Systems for Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Scoring systems are suboptimal for determining risk in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB); these might be improved by a machine learning model. We used machine learning to develop a model to calculate the risk of hospital-based intervention or death in patients with UGIB and compared its performance with other scoring systems. METHODS: We analyzed data collected from consecutive unselected patients with UGIB from medical centers in 4 countries (the United States, Scotland, England, and Denmark; n = 1958) from March 2014 through March 2015. We used the data to derive and internally validate a gradient-boosting machine learning model to identify patients who met a composite endpoint of hospital-based intervention (transfusion or hemostatic intervention) or death within 30 days. We compared the performance of the machine learning prediction model with validated pre-endoscopic clinical risk scoring systems (the Glasgow-Blatchford score [GBS], admission Rockall score, and AIMS65). We externally validated the machine learning model using data from 2 Asia-Pacific sites (Singapore and New Zealand; n = 399). Performance was measured by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis. RESULTS: The machine learning model identified patients who met the composite endpoint with an AUC of 0.91 in the internal validation set; the clinical scoring systems identified patients who met the composite endpoint with AUC values of 0.88 for the GBS (P = .001), 0.73 for Rockall score (P < .001), and 0.78 for AIMS65 score (P < .001). In the external validation cohort, the machine learning model identified patients who met the composite endpoint with an AUC of 0.90, the GBS with an AUC of 0.87 (P = .004), the Rockall score with an AUC of 0.66 (P < .001), and the AIMS65 with an AUC of 0.64 (P < .001). At cutoff scores at which the machine learning model and GBS identified patients who met the composite endpoint with 100% sensitivity, the specificity values were 26% with the machine learning model versus 12% with GBS (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: We developed a machine learning model that identifies patients with UGIB who met a composite endpoint of hospital-based intervention or death within 30 days with a greater AUC and higher levels of specificity, at 100% sensitivity, than validated clinical risk scoring systems. This model could increase identification of low-risk patients who can be safely discharged from the emergency department for outpatient management.

Endoscopic diagnosis and management of nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (NVUGIH): European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) Guideline - Update 2021.

1: ESGE recommends in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH) the use of the Glasgow-Blatchford Score (GBS) for pre-endoscopy risk stratification. Patients with GBS ≤ 1 are at very low risk of rebleeding, mortality within 30 days, or needing hospital-based intervention and can be safely managed as outpatients with outpatient endoscopy.Strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence. 2: ESGE recommends that in patients with acute UGIH who are taking low-dose aspirin as monotherapy for secondary cardiovascular prophylaxis, aspirin should not be interrupted. If for any reason it is interrupted, aspirin should be re-started as soon as possible, preferably within 3-5 days.Strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence. 3: ESGE recommends that following hemodynamic resuscitation, early (≤ 24 hours) upper gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy should be performed. Strong recommendation, high quality evidence. 4: ESGE does not recommend urgent (≤ 12 hours) upper GI endoscopy since as compared to early endoscopy, patient outcomes are not improved. Strong recommendation, high quality evidence. 5: ESGE recommends for patients with actively bleeding ulcers (FIa, FIb), combination therapy using epinephrine injection plus a second hemostasis modality (contact thermal or mechanical therapy). Strong recommendation, high quality evidence. 6: ESGE recommends for patients with an ulcer with a nonbleeding visible vessel (FIIa), contact or noncontact thermal therapy, mechanical therapy, or injection of a sclerosing agent, each as monotherapy or in combination with epinephrine injection. Strong recommendation, high quality evidence. 7 : ESGE suggests that in patients with persistent bleeding refractory to standard hemostasis modalities, the use of a topical hemostatic spray/powder or cap-mounted clip should be considered. Weak recommendation, low quality evidence. 8: ESGE recommends that for patients with clinical evidence of recurrent peptic ulcer hemorrhage, use of a cap-mounted clip should be considered. In the case of failure of this second attempt at endoscopic hemostasis, transcatheter angiographic embolization (TAE) should be considered. Surgery is indicated when TAE is not locally available or after failed TAE. Strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence. 9: ESGE recommends high dose proton pump inhibitor (PPI) therapy for patients who receive endoscopic hemostasis and for patients with FIIb ulcer stigmata (adherent clot) not treated endoscopically. (A): PPI therapy should be administered as an intravenous bolus followed by continuous infusion (e. g., 80 mg then 8 mg/hour) for 72 hours post endoscopy. (B): High dose PPI therapies given as intravenous bolus dosing (twice-daily) or in oral formulation (twice-daily) can be considered as alternative regimens.Strong recommendation, high quality evidence. 10: ESGE recommends that in patients who require ongoing anticoagulation therapy following acute NVUGIH (e. g., peptic ulcer hemorrhage), anticoagulation should be resumed as soon as the bleeding has been controlled, preferably within or soon after 7 days of the bleeding event, based on thromboembolic risk. The rapid onset of action of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACS), as compared to vitamin K antagonists (VKAs), must be considered in this context.Strong recommendation, low quality evidence.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent-shunt in the management of portal hypertension.

These guidelines on transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent-shunt (TIPSS) in the management of portal hypertension have been commissioned by the Clinical Services and Standards Committee (CSSC) of the British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG) under the auspices of the Liver Section of the BSG. The guidelines are new and have been produced in collaboration with the British Society of Interventional Radiology (BSIR) and British Association of the Study of the Liver (BASL). The guidelines development group comprises elected members of the BSG Liver Section, representation from BASL, a nursing representative and two patient representatives. The quality of evidence and grading of recommendations was appraised using the GRADE system. These guidelines are aimed at healthcare professionals considering referring a patient for a TIPSS. They comprise the following subheadings: indications; patient selection; procedural details; complications; and research agenda. They are not designed to address: the management of the underlying liver disease; the role of TIPSS in children; or complex technical and procedural aspects of TIPSS.

MAP(ASH): A new scoring system for the prediction of intervention and mortality in upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Risk stratification for upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is recommended. However, scoring system accuracy is suboptimal, and score calculation can be complex. Our aim was to develop a new score, the MAP(ASH) score, with information available in the emergency room and to validate it. METHODS: The score was built from a prospective database of patients with UGIB and validated in an international database of 3012 patients from six hospitals. Outcomes were 30-day mortality, endoscopic intervention, any intervention (red blood transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or death), and rebleeding. Accuracy to predict outcomes was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS: Five hundred forty-seven patients were included in the development cohort. Impaired mental status, albumin < 2.5 g/dL, pulse > 100, American Society of Anesthesiologists score > 2, systolic blood pressure < 90 mmHg, and hemoglobin < 10 g/dL were included in the score. The model had a good predictive accuracy for intervention (AUROC = 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.79-0.88) and fair for mortality (AUROC = 0.74; 95% CI: 0.68-0.81). Regarding endoscopic intervention, AUROC was 0.61 (95% CI: 0.56-0.66) in the original cohort and 0.69 (95% CI: 0.66-0.71) in the validation cohort, showing a poor performance, similar to other scores. For rebleeding, the MAP(ASH) (AUROC 0.73; 95% CI: 0.69-0.77) was similar to Glasgow Blatchford score (AUROC = 0.72; 95% CI: 0.67-0.76) but superior to AIMS65 (AUROC = 0.64; 95% CI: 0.59-0.68). CONCLUSION: MAP(ASH) is a simple pre-endoscopy risk score to predict intervention after UGIB, with fair discrimination at predicting mortality. Because of its applicability, it could be an option in clinical practice.

Previous Use of Antithrombotic Agents Reduces Mortality and Length of Hospital Stay in Patients With High-risk Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Anti-thrombotic agents are risk factors for upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). However, few studies have evaluated their effects on patient outcomes. We assessed the effects of anti-thrombotic agents on outcomes of patients with high-risk UGIB. METHODS: We performed a prospective study of 619 patients with acute UGIB (defined by hematemesis, coffee-ground vomit or melena) who required intervention and underwent endoscopy at 8 centers in North America, Asia, and Europe, from March 2014 through March 2015. We collected data recorded on use of anti-thrombotic agents, clinical features, and laboratory test results to calculate AIMS65, Glasgow-Blatchford Score, and full Rockall scores. We also collected and analyzed data on co-morbidities, endoscopic findings, blood transfusion, interventional radiology results, surgeries, length of hospital stay, rebleeding, and mortality. RESULTS: Of the 619 patients who required endoscopic therapy, data on use of anti-thrombotic agents was available for 568; 253 of these patients (44%) used anti-thrombotic agents. Compared to patients not taking anti-thrombotic agents, patients treated with anti-thrombotics were older (P < .001), had a higher mean American Society of Anesthesiologists classification score (P < .0001), had a higher mean Rockall score (P < .0001), a higher mean AIMS65 score (P < .0001), and more frequently bled from ulcers (P < .001). There were no differences between groups in sex, systolic blood pressure, level of hemoglobin at hospital admission, frequency of malignancies, Glasgow-Blatchford Score, need for surgery or interventional radiology, number of rebleeding events, or requirement for transfusion. All-cause mortality was lower in patients who took anti-thrombotic drugs (11 deaths, 4%) than in patients who did not (37 deaths, 12%) (P = .002); this was due to lower bleeding-related mortality in patients taking anti-thrombotic drugs (3 deaths, 1%) than in patients who were not (19 deaths, 6%) (P = .003). Patients taking anti-thrombotic drugs had mean hospital stays of 6.9 days (95% CI, 2-23 days) compared to 7.9 days for non-users of anti-thrombotic agents (95% CI, 2-26 days) (P = .04). CONCLUSIONS: Despite being older, with higher American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, AIMS65, and Rockall scores, patients who have UGIB that requires endoscopic therapy and take anti-thrombotic drugs have lower mortality due to GI bleeding and shorter hospital stays, with similar rates of rebleeding, surgery, and transfusions, compared with those not taking anti-thrombotic drugs.

The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients with hepatitis C and sustained viral response: Role of the treatment regimen.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Previous studies have reported a high frequency of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence in patients with advanced liver disease, after receipt of interferon (IFN)-free therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Our objective was to verify and account for this phenomenon using data from the Scottish HCV clinical database. METHODS: We identified HCC-naïve individuals with liver cirrhosis receiving a course of antiviral therapy in Scotland from 1997-2016 resulting in a sustained virologic response. Patients were followed-up from their treatment start date to the earliest of: date of death, date of HCC occurrence, or 31 January 2017. We used Cox regression to compare the risk of HCC occurrence according to treatment regimen after adjusting for relevant co-factors (including: demographic factors; baseline liver disease stage; comorbidities/health behaviours, virology, and previous treatment experience). HCC occurrence was ascertained through both the HCV clinical database and medical chart review. For our main analysis, treatment regimen was defined as IFN-free vs. IFN-containing. RESULTS: A total of 857 patients met the study criteria, of whom 31.7% received an IFN-free regimen. Individuals receiving IFN-free therapy were more likely to be: older; of white ethnicity, Child-Turcotte-Pugh B/C vs. Child-Turcotte-Pugh A; thrombocytopenic; non-genotype 3; and treatment experienced. HCC occurrence was observed in 46 individuals during follow-up. In univariate analysis, IFN-free therapy was associated with a significantly increased risk of HCC (HR: 2.48; p = 0.021). However, after multivariate adjustment for baseline factors, no significant risk attributable to IFN-free therapy persisted (aHR: 1.15, p = 0.744). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that the higher incidence of HCC following sustained virologic response with IFN-free therapy relates to baseline risk factors/patient selection, and not the use of IFN-free therapy per se. LAY SUMMARY: We examined the risk of liver cancer in 857 patients with cirrhosis in Scotland who received hepatitis C antiviral therapy and achieved a cure. We compared the risk of first-time liver cancer in patients treated with the newest interferon-free regimens, to patients treated with interferon. After accounting for the different characteristics of these two treatment groups, we found no evidence that interferon-free therapy is associated with a higher risk of liver cancer.

Severity and Outcomes of Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding With Bloody Vs. Coffee-Grounds Hematemesis.

OBJECTIVES: Numerous reviews indicate bloody hematemesis signifies more severe bleeding than coffee-grounds hematemesis. We assessed severity and outcomes related to bleeding symptoms in a prospective study. METHODS: Consecutive patients presenting with hematemesis or melena were categorized as bloody emesis (N=1209), coffee-grounds emesis without bloody emesis (N=701), or melena without hematemesis (N=1069). We assessed bleeding severity (pulse, blood pressure) and predictors of outcome (hemoglobin, risk stratification scores) at presentation, and outcomes of bleeding episodes. The primary outcome was a composite of transfusion, intervention, or mortality. RESULTS: Bloody and coffee-grounds emesis were similar in pulse ≥100 beats/min (35 vs. 37%), systolic blood pressure ≤100 mm Hg (12 vs. 12%), and hemoglobin ≤100 g/l (25 vs. 27%). Risk stratification scores were lower with bloody emesis. The composite end point was 34.7 vs. 38.2% for bloody vs. coffee-grounds emesis; mortality was 6.6 vs. 9.3%. Hemostatic intervention was more common (19.4 vs. 14.4%) with bloody emesis (due to a higher frequency of varices necessitating endoscopic therapy), as was rebleeding (7.8 vs. 4.5%). Outcomes were worse with hematemesis plus melena vs. isolated hematemesis for bloody (composite: 62.4 vs. 25.6%; hemostatic intervention: 36.5 vs. 13.8%) and coffee-grounds emesis (composite: 59.1 vs. 27.1%; hemostatic intervention: 26.4 vs. 8.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Bloody emesis is not associated with more severe bleeding episodes at presentation or higher mortality than coffee-grounds emesis, but is associated with modestly higher rates of hemostatic intervention and rebleeding. Outcomes with hematemesis are worsened with concurrent melena. The presence of bloody emesis plus melena potentially could be considered in decisions regarding timing of endoscopy.

Mortality in hepatitis C patients who achieve a sustained viral response compared to the general population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The number of people living with previous hepatitis C infection that have attained a sustained viral response (SVR) is expected to grow rapidly. So far, the prognosis of this group relative to the general population is unclear. METHODS: Individuals attaining SVR in Scotland in 1996-2011 were identified using a national database. Through record-linkage, we obtained cause-specific mortality data complete to Dec 2013. We calculated standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) to compare the frequency of mortality in SVR patients to the general population. In a parallel analysis, we used Cox regression to identify modifiable patient characteristics associated with post-SVR mortality. RESULTS: We identified 1824 patients, followed on average for 5.2years after SVR. In total, 78 deaths were observed. Overall, all-cause mortality was 1.9 times more frequent for SVR patients than the general population (SMR: 1.86; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.49-2.32). Significant cause-specific elevations were seen for death due to primary liver cancer (SMR: 23.50; 95% CI: 12.23-45.16), and death due to drug-related causes (SMR: 6.58, 95% CI: 4.15-10.45). Together these two causes accounted for 66% of the total excess death observed. All of the modifiable characteristics associated with increased mortality were markers either of heavy alcohol use or injecting drug use. Individuals without these behavioural markers (32.8% of cohort) experienced equivalent survival to the general population (SMR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.41-1.18) CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in Scottish SVR patients is higher overall than the general population. The excess was driven by death from drug-related causes and liver cancer. Health risk behaviours emerged as important modifiable determinants of mortality in this population. LAY SUMMARY: Patients cured of hepatitis C through treatment had a higher mortality rate overall than the general population. Most of the surplus mortality was due to drug-related causes and death from liver cancer. A history of heavy alcohol and injecting drug use were associated with a higher mortality risk.

Relationship of time to presentation after onset of upper GI bleeding with patient characteristics and outcomes: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We performed a prospective multi-national study of patients presenting to the emergency department with upper GI bleeding (UGIB) and assessed the relationship of time to presentation after onset of UGIB symptoms with patient characteristics and outcomes. METHODS: Consecutive patients presenting with overt UGIB (red-blood emesis, coffee-ground emesis, and/or melena) from March 2014 to March 2015 at 6 hospitals were included. Multiple predefined patient characteristics and outcomes were collected. Rapid presentation was defined as ≤6 hours. RESULTS: Among 2944 patients, 1068 (36%) presented within 6 hours and 576 (20%) beyond 48 hours. Significant independent factors associated with presentation ≤6 hours versus >6 hours on logistic regression included melena (odds ratio [OR], 0.22; 95% CI, 0.18-0.28), hemoglobin ≤80 g/L (OR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.36-0.61), altered mental status (OR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.55-2.73), albumin ≤30 g/L (OR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.14-1.78), and red-blood emesis (OR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.06-1.59). Patients presenting ≤6 hours versus >6 hours required transfusion less often (286 [27%] vs 791 [42%]; difference, -15%; 95% CI, -19% to -12%) because of a smaller proportion with low hemoglobin levels, but were similar with regard to hemostatic intervention (189 [18%] vs 371 [20%]), 30-day mortality (80 [7%] vs 121 [6%]), and hospital days (5.0 ± 0.2 vs 5.0 ± 0.2). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with melena alone delay their presentation to the hospital. A delayed presentation is associated with a decreased hemoglobin level and increases the likelihood of transfusion. Other outcomes are similar with rapid versus delayed presentation. Time to presentation should not be used as an indicator for poor outcome. Patients with delayed presentation should be managed with the same degree of care as those with rapid presentation.

Relationship between timing of endoscopy and mortality in patients with peptic ulcer bleeding: a nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The optimal timing of endoscopy in patients with peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB) remains unclear. The aim of this study was to examine the association between timing of endoscopy and mortality in PUB. METHODS: In a nationwide cohort study based on a database of consecutive patients admitted to the hospital with PUB in Denmark, patients were stratified according to the presence of hemodynamic instability at presentation and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score. Using descriptive statistics and logistic regression analyses, we identified optimal time frames for endoscopy and analyzed the association between timing of endoscopy and in-hospital mortality after adjusting for confounding factors. RESULTS: In total, 12,601 patients were included. We did not find any universal association between timing of endoscopy and mortality in hemodynamically stable patients with an ASA score of 1 to 2. In hemodynamically stable patients with an ASA score of 3 to 5, endoscopy 12 to 36 hours after admission to the hospital was associated with lower in-hospital mortality (OR, .48; 95% CI, .34-.67) compared with endoscopy outside this time frame. In patients with hemodynamic instability, endoscopy 6 to 24 hours after admission to the hospital was associated with lower in-hospital mortality (OR, .73; 95% CI, .54-.98) compared with endoscopy outside this time frame. CONCLUSIONS: Timing of endoscopy is associated with mortality in patients with PUB and an ASA score of 3 to 5 or hemodynamic instability. Our findings suggest that in these patients, a period of time to optimize resuscitation and manage comorbidities before endoscopy may improve outcome.

Factors associated with spontaneous clearance of chronic hepatitis C virus infection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Spontaneous clearance of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection (CHC) is rare. We conducted a retrospective case-control study to identify rates and factors associated with spontaneous clearance of CHC. METHODS: We defined cases as individuals who spontaneously resolved CHC, and controls as individuals who remained chronically infected. We used data obtained on HCV testing between 1994 and 2013 in the West of Scotland to infer case/control status. Specifically, untreated patients with ⩾2 sequential samples positive for HCV RNA ⩾6months apart followed by ⩾1 negative test, and those with ⩾2 positive samples ⩾6months apart with no subsequent negative samples were identified. Control patients were randomly selected from the second group (4/patient of interest). Case notes were reviewed and patient characteristics obtained. RESULTS: 25,113 samples were positive for HCV RNA, relating to 10,318 patients. 50 cases of late spontaneous clearance were identified, contributing 241 person-years follow-up. 2,518 untreated, chronically infected controls were identified, contributing 13,766 person-years follow-up, from whom 200 controls were randomly selected. The incidence rate of spontaneous clearance was 0.36/100 person-years follow-up, occurring after a median 50months' infection. Spontaneous clearance was positively associated with female gender, younger age at infection, lower HCV RNA load and co-infection with hepatitis B virus. It was negatively associated with current intravenous drug use. CONCLUSIONS: Spontaneous clearance of CHC occurs infrequently but is associated with identifiable host and viral factors. More frequent HCV RNA monitoring may be appropriate in selected patient groups. LAY SUMMARY: Clearance of hepatitis C virus infection without treatment occurs rarely once chronic infection has been established. We interrogated a large Scottish patient cohort and found that it was more common in females, patients infected at a younger age or with lower levels of HCV in the blood, and patients co-infected with hepatitis B virus. Patients who injected drugs were less likely to spontaneously clear chronic infection.

Restrictive versus liberal blood transfusion for acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (TRIGGER): a pragmatic, open-label, cluster randomised feasibility trial.

BACKGROUND: Transfusion thresholds for acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding are controversial. So far, only three small, underpowered studies and one single-centre trial have been done. Findings from the single-centre trial showed reduced mortality with restrictive red blood cell (RBC) transfusion. We aimed to assess whether a multicentre, cluster randomised trial is a feasible method to substantiate or refute this finding. METHODS: In this pragmatic, open-label, cluster randomised feasibility trial, done in six university hospitals in the UK, we enrolled all patients aged 18 years or older with new presentations of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding, irrespective of comorbidity, except for exsanguinating haemorrhage. We randomly assigned hospitals (1:1) with a computer-generated randomisation sequence (random permuted block size of 6, without stratification or matching) to either a restrictive (transfusion when haemoglobin concentration fell below 80 g/L) or liberal (transfusion when haemoglobin concentration fell below 100 g/L) RBC transfusion policy. Neither patients nor investigators were masked to treatment allocation. Feasibility outcomes were recruitment rate, protocol adherence, haemoglobin concentration, RBC exposure, selection bias, and information to guide design and economic evaluation of the phase 3 trial. Main exploratory clinical outcomes were further bleeding and mortality at day 28. We did analyses on all enrolled patients for whom an outcome was available. This trial is registered, ISRCTN85757829 and NCT02105532. FINDINGS: Between Sept 3, 2012, and March 1, 2013, we enrolled 936 patients across six hospitals (403 patients in three hospitals with a restrictive policy and 533 patients in three hospitals with a liberal policy). Recruitment rate was significantly higher for the liberal than for the restrictive policy (62% vs 55%; p=0·04). Despite some baseline imbalances, Rockall and Blatchford risk scores were identical between policies. Protocol adherence was 96% (SD 10) in the restrictive policy vs 83% (25) in the liberal policy (difference 14%; 95% CI 7-21; p=0·005). Mean last recorded haemoglobin concentration was 116 (SD 24) g/L for patients on the restrictive policy and 118 (20) g/L for those on the liberal policy (difference -2·0 [95% CI -12·0 to 7·0]; p=0·50). Fewer patients received RBCs on the restrictive policy than on the liberal policy (restrictive policy 133 [33%] vs liberal policy 247 [46%]; difference -12% [95% CI -35 to 11]; p=0·23), with fewer RBC units transfused (mean 1·2 [SD 2·1] vs 1·9 [2·8]; difference -0·7 [-1·6 to 0·3]; p=0·12), although these differences were not significant. We noted no significant difference in clinical outcomes. INTERPRETATION: A cluster randomised design led to rapid recruitment, high protocol adherence, separation in degree of anaemia between groups, and non-significant reduction in RBC transfusion in the restrictive policy. A large cluster randomised trial to assess the effectiveness of transfusion strategies for acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding is both feasible and essential before clinical practice guidelines change to recommend restrictive transfusion for all patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. FUNDING: NHS Blood and Transplant Research and Development.

Toward a more complete understanding of the association between a hepatitis C sustained viral response and cause-specific outcomes.

UNLABELLED: Sustained viral response (SVR) is the optimal outcome of hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy, yet more detailed data are required to confirm its clinical value. Individuals receiving treatment in 1996-2011 were identified using the Scottish HCV clinical database. We sourced data on 10 clinical events: liver, nonliver, and all-cause mortality; first hospitalisation for severe liver morbidity (SLM); cardiovascular disease (CVD); respiratory disorders; neoplasms; alcohol-intoxication; drug intoxication; and violence-related injury (note: the latter three events were selected a priori to gauge ongoing chaotic lifestyle behaviours). We determined the association between SVR attainment and each outcome event, in terms of the relative hazard reduction and absolute risk reduction (ARR). We tested for an interaction between SVR and liver disease severity (mild vs. nonmild), defining mild disease as an aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) <0.7. Our cohort comprised 3,385 patients (mean age: 41.6 years), followed-up for a median 5.3 years (interquartile range: 3.3-8.2). SVR was associated with a reduced risk of liver mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR]: 0.24; P < 0.001), nonliver mortality (AHR, 0.68; P = 0.026), all-cause mortality (AHR, 0.49; P < 0.001), SLM (AHR, 0.21; P < 0.001), CVD (AHR, 0.70; P = 0.001), alcohol intoxication (AHR, 0.52; P = 0.003), and violence-related injury (AHR, 0.51; P = 0.002). After 7.5 years, SVR was associated with significant ARRs for liver mortality, all-cause mortality, SLM, and CVD (each 3.0%-4.7%). However, we detected a strong interaction, in that ARRs were considerably higher for individuals with nonmild disease than for individuals with mild disease. CONCLUSIONS: The conclusions are 3-fold: (1) Overall, SVR is associated with reduced hazard for a range of hepatic and nonhepatic events; (2) an association between SVR and behavioral events is consistent with SVR patients leading healthier lives; and (3) the short-term value of SVR is greatest for those with nonmild disease.

U.K. guidelines on the management of variceal haemorrhage in cirrhotic patients.

These updated guidelines on the management of variceal haemorrhage have been commissioned by the Clinical Services and Standards Committee (CSSC) of the British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG) under the auspices of the liver section of the BSG. The original guidelines which this document supersedes were written in 2000 and have undergone extensive revision by 13 members of the Guidelines Development Group (GDG). The GDG comprises elected members of the BSG liver section, representation from British Association for the Study of the Liver (BASL) and Liver QuEST, a nursing representative and a patient representative. The quality of evidence and grading of recommendations was appraised using the AGREE II tool.The nature of variceal haemorrhage in cirrhotic patients with its complex range of complications makes rigid guidelines inappropriate. These guidelines deal specifically with the management of varices in patients with cirrhosis under the following subheadings: (1) primary prophylaxis; (2) acute variceal haemorrhage; (3) secondary prophylaxis of variceal haemorrhage; and (4) gastric varices. They are not designed to deal with (1) the management of the underlying liver disease; (2) the management of variceal haemorrhage in children; or (3) variceal haemorrhage from other aetiological conditions.