In Search of a Pony: Sources, Methods, Outcomes, and Motivated Reasoning.

It is highly desirable to be able to evaluate the effect of policy interventions. Such evaluations should have expected outcomes based upon sound theory and be carefully planned, objectively evaluated and prospectively executed. In many cases, however, assessments originate with investigators' poorly substantiated beliefs about the effects of a policy. Instead of designing studies that test falsifiable hypotheses, these investigators adopt methods and data sources that serve as little more than descriptions of these beliefs in the guise of analysis. Interrupted time series analysis is one of the most popular forms of analysis used to present these beliefs. It is intuitively appealing but, in most cases, it is based upon false analogies, fallacious assumptions and analytical errors.

Honest Opinion Versus Dishonest Analysis.

Response to the response of Kuldorff and Lu et al.

Use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) in women delivering liveborn infants and other women of child-bearing age within the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Mini-Sentinel program.

This study was conducted in order to assess the prevalence of use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) among pregnant women delivering a liveborn infant in the USA. A retrospective study was conducted using the automated databases of 15 health-care systems participating in the Mini-Sentinel program. Diagnosis and procedure codes were used to identify women ages 10 to 54 years delivering a liveborn infant between April 2001 and December 2013. A comparison group of age- and date-matched women without live births was identified. The frequency of use of SSRIs was identified from outpatient dispensing data. Among the 1,895,519 liveborn deliveries, 113,689 women (6.0 %) were exposed to an SSRI during pregnancy during the period 2001-2013; 5.4 % were exposed to an SSRI during 2013. During the corresponding time period, 10.5 % of the age- and date-matched cohort of women without live births was exposed to an SSRI, with 10.1 % exposed to an SSRI during 2013. The most common agents dispensed during pregnancy were sertraline (n = 48,678), fluoxetine (n = 28,983), and citalopram (n = 20,591). Among those women exposed to an SSRI during pregnancy, 53.8 % had a diagnosis of depression and 37.3 % had a diagnosis of an anxiety disorder during pregnancy or within 180 days prior to pregnancy. Our finding that 6 % of women with live births were prescribed SSRIs during pregnancy highlights the importance of understanding the differential effects of these medications and other therapeutic options on the developing fetus and on the pregnant women.

Response to acute monotherapy for major depressive disorder in randomized, placebo controlled trials submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration: individual participant data analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To characterize individual participant level response distributions to acute monotherapy for major depressive disorder in randomized, placebo controlled trials submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration from 1979 to 2016. DESIGN: Individual participant data analysis. POPULATION: 232 randomized, double blind, placebo controlled trials of drug monotherapy for major depressive disorder submitted by drug developers to the FDA between 1979 and 2016, comprising 73 388 adult and child participants meeting the inclusion criteria for efficacy studies on antidepressants. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Responses were converted to Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HAMD17) equivalent scores where other measures were used to assess efficacy. Multivariable analyses examined the effects of age, sex, baseline severity, and year of the study on improvements in depressive symptoms in the antidepressant and placebo groups. Response distributions were analyzed with finite mixture models. RESULTS: The random effects mean difference between drug and placebo favored drug (1.75 points, 95% confidence interval 1.63 to 1.86). Differences between drug and placebo increased significantly (P<0.001) with greater baseline severity. After controlling for participant characteristics at baseline, no trends in treatment effect or placebo response over time were found. The best fitting model of response distributions was three normal distributions, with mean improvements from baseline to end of treatment of 16.0, 8.9, and 1.7 points. These distributions were designated Large, Non-specific, and Minimal responses, respectively. Participants who were treated with a drug were more likely to have a Large response (24.5% v 9.6%) and less likely to have a Minimal response (12.2.% v 21.5%). CONCLUSIONS: The trimodal response distributions suggests that about 15% of participants have a substantial antidepressant effect beyond a placebo effect in clinical trials, highlighting the need for predictors of meaningful responses specific to drug treatment.

Effects of sedative psychotropic drugs combined with oxycodone on respiratory depression in the rat.

Following a decision to require label warnings for concurrent use of opioids and benzodiazepines and increased risk of respiratory depression and death, the US Food and Drug Administratioin (FDA) recognized that other sedative psychotropic drugs may be substituted for benzodiazepines and be used concurrently with opioids. In some cases, data on the ability of these alternatives to depress respiration alone or in conjunction with an opioid are lacking. A nonclinical in vivo model was developed that could detect worsening respiratory depression when a benzodiazepine (diazepam) was used in combination with an opioid (oxycodone) compared to the opioid alone based on an increased arterial partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2 ). The current study used that model to assess the impact on respiration of non-benzodiazepine sedative psychotropic drugs representative of different drug classes (clozapine, quetiapine, risperidone, zolpidem, trazodone, carisoprodol, cyclobenzaprine, mirtazapine, topiramate, paroxetine, duloxetine, ramelteon, and suvorexant) administered alone and with oxycodone. At clinically relevant exposures, paroxetine, trazodone, and quetiapine given with oxycodone significantly increased pCO2 above the oxycodone effect. Analyses indicated that most pCO2 interaction effects were due to pharmacokinetic interactions resulting in increased oxycodone exposure. Increased pCO2 recorded with oxycodone-paroxetine co-administration exceeded expected effects from only drug exposure suggesting another mechanism for the increased pharmacodynamic response. This study identified drug-drug interaction effects depressing respiration in an animal model when quetiapine or paroxetine were co-administered with oxycodone. Clinical pharmacodynamic drug interaction studies are being conducted with these drugs to assess translatability of these findings.