Climate causes shifts in grey seal phenology by modifying age structure.

There are numerous examples of phenological shifts that are recognized both as indicators of climate change and drivers of ecosystem change. A pressing challenge is to understand the causal mechanisms by which climate affects phenology. We combined annual population census data and individual longitudinal data (1992-2018) on grey seals, Halicheorus grypus, to quantify the relationship between pupping season phenology and sea surface temperature. A temperature increase of 2°C was associated with a pupping season advance of approximately seven days at the population level. However, we found that maternal age, rather than sea temperature, accounted for changes in pupping date by individuals. Warmer years were associated with an older average age of mothers, allowing us to explain phenological observations in terms of a changing population age structure. Finally, we developed a matrix population model to test whether our observations were consistent with changes to the stable age distribution. This could not fully account for observed phenological shift, strongly suggesting transient modification of population age structure, for example owing to immigration. We demonstrate a novel mechanism for phenological shifts under climate change in long-lived, age- or stage-structured species with broad implications for dynamics and resilience, as well as population management.

Census data aggregation decisions can affect population-level inference in heterogeneous populations.

Conservation and population management decisions often rely on population models parameterized using census data. However, the sampling regime, precision, sample size, and methods used to collect census data are usually heterogeneous in time and space. Decisions about how to derive population-wide estimates from this patchwork of data are complicated and may bias estimated population dynamics, with important implications for subsequent management decisions.Here, we explore the impact of site selection and data aggregation decisions on pup survival estimates, and downstream estimates derived from parameterized matrix population models (MPMs), using a long-term dataset on grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) pup survival from southwestern Wales. The spatiotemporal and methodological heterogeneity of the data are fairly typical for ecological census data and it is, therefore, a good model to address this topic.Data were collected from 46 sampling locations (sites) over 25 years, and we explore the impact of data handling decisions by varying how years and sampling locations are combined to parameterize pup survival in population-level MPMs. We focus on pup survival because abundant high-quality data are available on this developmental stage.We found that survival probability was highly variable with most variation being at the site level, and poorly correlated among sampling sites. This variation could generate marked differences in predicted population dynamics depending on sampling strategy. The sample size required for a confident survival estimate also varied markedly geographically.We conclude that for populations with highly variable vital rates among sub-populations, site selection and data aggregation methods are important. In particular, including peripheral or less frequently used areas can introduce substantial variation into population estimates. This is likely to be context-dependent, but these choices, including the use of appropriate weights when summarizing across sampling areas, should be explored to ensure that management actions are successful.

Linking loggerhead locations: using multiple methods to determine the origin of sea turtles in feeding grounds.

Many marine megavertebrate taxa, including sea turtles, disperse widely from their hatching or birthing locations but display natal homing as adults. We used flipper tagging, satellite tracking and genetics to identify the origin of loggerhead turtles living in Amvrakikos Gulf, Greece. This location has been identified as hosting regionally important numbers of large-juvenile to adult sized turtles that display long-term residency and/or association to the area, and also presents a male biased sex ratio for adults. A total of 20 individuals were linked to nesting areas in Greece through flipper tagging and satellite telemetry, with the majority (16) associated with Zakynthos Island. One additional female was tracked from Amvrakikos Gulf to Turkey where she likely nested. Mitochondrial DNA mixed stock analyses of turtles captured in Amvrakikos Gulf (n = 95) indicated 82% of individuals originated from Greek nesting stocks, mainly from Zakynthos Island (63%), with lesser contributions from central Turkey, Cyprus and Libya. These results suggest that the male-biased sex ratio found in Amvrakikos Gulf may be driven by the fact that males breed twice as frequently on Zakynthos, resulting in their using foraging grounds of greater proximity to the breeding site. Conservation measures in localised foraging habitats for the protection of marine vertebrates, such as sea turtles, may have positive impacts on several disparate breeding stocks and the use of multiple methods to determine source populations can indicate the relative effectiveness of these measures.

A tool for protected area management: multivariate control charts 'cope' with rare variable communities.

Performance assessment, impact detection, and the assessment of regulatory compliance are common scientific problems for the management of protected areas. Some habitats in protected areas, however, are rare and/or variable and are not often selected for study by ecologists because they preclude comparison with controls and high community variability makes meaningful change detection difficult. Shallow coastal saline lagoons are habitats that experience comparatively high levels of stress due to high physical variability. Lagoons are rare, declining habitats found in coastal regions throughout Europe (and elsewhere) where they are identified as one of the habitats most in need of protected area management. The infauna in the sediments of 25 lagoons were sampled. Temporal and spatial variation in three of these [protected] lagoons was investigated further over 5 years. In a multivariate analysis of community structure similarities were found between some lagoons, but in other cases communities were unique or specific to only two sites. The protected lagoons with these unique/specific communities showed significant temporal and spatial variation, yet none of the changes observed were attributed to human impacts and were interpreted as inherent variability. Multivariate control charts can operate without experimental controls and were used to assess community changes within the context of 'normal' lagoon variability. The aim of control chart analysis is to characterize background variability in a parameter and identify when a new observation deviates more than expected. In only 1 year was variability more than expected and corresponded with the coldest December in over 100 years. Multivariate control charts are likely to have wide application in the management of protected areas and other natural systems where variability and/or rarity preclude conventional analytical and experimental approaches but where assessments of condition, impact or regulatory compliance are nonetheless required.

The substantial first impact of bottom fishing on rare biodiversity hotspots: a dilemma for evidence-based conservation.

This study describes the impact of the first passage of two types of bottom-towed fishing gear on rare protected shellfish-reefs formed by the horse mussel Modiolus modiolus (L.). One of the study sites was trawled and the other was scallop-dredged. Divers collected HD video imagery of epifauna from quadrats at the two study sites and directed infaunal samples from one site. The total number of epifaunal organisms was significantly reduced following a single pass of a trawl (90%) or scallop dredge (59%), as was the diversity of the associated community and the total number of M. modiolus at the trawled site. At both sites declines in anthozoans, hydrozoans, bivalves, echinoderms and ascidians accounted for most of the change. A year later, no recovery was evident at the trawled site and significantly fewer infaunal taxa (polychaetes, malacostracans, bivalves and ophuroids) were recorded in the trawl track. The severity of the two types of impact reflected the undisturbed status of the habitats compared to previous studies. As a 'priority habitat' the nature of the impacts described on M. modiolus communities are important to the development of conservation management policy and indicators of condition in Marine Protected Areas (EU Habitats Directive) as well as indicators of 'Good Environmental Status' under the European Union Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Conservation managers are under pressure to support decisions with good quality evidence. Elsewhere, indirect studies have shown declines of M. modiolus biogenic communities in fishing grounds. However, given the protected status of the rare habitat, premeditated demonstration of direct impact is unethical or illegal in Marine Protected Areas. This study therefore provides a unique opportunity to investigate the impact from fishing gear whilst at the same time reflecting on the dilemma of evidence-based conservation management.