Emissions variability processor (EMVAP): design, evaluation, and application.

Emissions of pollutants such as SO2 and NOx from external combustion sources can vary widely depending on fuel sulfur content, load, and transient conditions such as startup, shutdown, and maintenance/malfunction. While monitoring will automatically reflect variability from both emissions and meteorological influences, dispersion modeling has been typically conducted with a single constant peak emission rate. To respond to the need to account for emissions variability in addressing probabilistic 1-hr ambient air quality standards for SO2 and NO2, we have developed a statistical technique, the Emissions Variability Processor (EMVAP), which can account for emissions variability in dispersion modeling through Monte Carlo sampling from a specified frequency distribution of emission rates. Based upon initial AERMOD modeling of from 1 to 5 years of actual meteorological conditions, EMVAP is used as a postprocessor to AERMOD to simulate hundreds or even thousands of years of concentration predictions. This procedure uses emissions varied hourly with a Monte Carlo sampling process that is based upon the user-specified emissions distribution, from which a probabilistic estimate can be obtained of the controlling concentration. EMVAP can also accommodate an advanced Tier 2 NO2 modeling technique that uses a varying ambient ratio method approach to determine the fraction of total oxides of nitrogen that are in the form of nitrogen dioxide. For the case of the 1-hr National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS, established for SO2 and NO2), a "critical value" can be defined as the highest hourly emission rate that would be simulated to satisfy the standard using air dispersion models assuming constant emissions throughout the simulation. The critical value can be used as the starting point for a procedure like EMVAP that evaluates the impact of emissions variability and uses this information to determine an appropriate value to use for a longer-term (e.g., 30-day) average emission rate that would still provide protection for the NAAQS under consideration. This paper reports on the design of EMVAP and its evaluation on several field databases that demonstrate that EMVAP produces a suitably modest overestimation of design concentrations. We also provide an example of an EMVAP application that involves a case in which a new emission limitation needs to be considered for a hypothetical emission unit that has infrequent higher-than-normal SO2 emissions. Implications: Emissions of pollutants from combustion sources can vary widely depending on fuel sulfur content, load, and transient conditions such as startup and shutdown. While monitoring will automatically reflect this variability on measured concentrations, dispersion modeling is typically conducted with a single peak emission rate assumed to occur continuously. To realistically account for emissions variability in addressing probabilistic 1-hr ambient air quality standards for SO2 and NO2, the authors have developed a statistical technique, the Emissions Variability Processor (EMVAP), which can account for emissions variability in dispersion modeling through Monte Carlo sampling from a specified frequency distribution of emission rates.

Evaluation of a revised AERMOD treatment of plume dispersion in the daytime elevated stable layer.

Advanced dispersion models such as AERMOD specifically address the portion of a plume emitted in convective conditions that is sufficiently buoyant to rise into the stable layer above the elevated inversion. This portion of the plume mass is often referred to as the "penetrated plume" because that plume component breaks through the elevated inversion and penetrates into the stable layer aloft. A premature mixing of the penetrated plume to the ground has been identified in the current formulation of AERMOD, which is the U.S. EPA-preferred short-range dispersion model and used in several other countries. This behavior has been observed based on data from field studies where the model is found to overpredict ground-level concentration events due to the penetrated plume component, with the timing of these peak predictions too early in the day. A proposed update to AERMOD to address the penetrated plume issue (referred to as "HBP" for modifications particularly important for "highly buoyant plume") is documented and evaluated in this manuscript. The revised approach involves a check on the convective mixing height for the current hour as well as the next hour to determine how much of the penetrated plume has been captured by the convective boundary layer by the end of the current hour. The amount of the penetrated plume mass that is allowed to mix to the ground in the HBP modifications depends upon the result of this calculation. The HBP modification has been evaluated as an update to AERMOD for three databases along with a sensitivity analysis of the effects of the HBP changes on a variety of stack heights and buoyancy fluxes. The findings of the evaluation indicate that the HBP changes to AERMOD result in reduced overprediction tendencies.Implications: A proposed enhancement to AERMOD to address a premature mixing of penetrated plume material to the ground has been performed by implemented and evaluated by the authors. The enhancement, referred to as the highly buoyant plume (HBP) is based on work developed by Jeffrey Weil. HBP is designed to better characterize the penetrated plume behavior in the model such that it aligns more closely with observations based on data from field studies.