Did the UN convention on the rights of the child reduce child mortality around the world? An interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Child mortality has been reduced by more than 50 % over the past 30 years. A range of secular economic and social developments have been considered to explain this phenomenon. In this paper, we examine the association between ratification of the Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC), which was specifically put in place to ensure the well-being of children, and declines in child mortality. METHODS: Data come from three sources: the United Nations Treaty Series Database, the World Bank World Development Indicators database and, the Polity IV database. Because CRC was widely ratified, leaving few control cases, we used interrupted times series analyses, which uses the trend in the health outcome before policy exposure to mathematically determine what the trend in the health outcome would have been after the policy exposure, if it had continued 'as is' - meaning, if the policy exposure had not occurred. RESULTS: CRC ratification was associated with declining child mortality. CRC ratification was associated with a significant change in shorter-term child mortality trends in all groups except high-income, non-democratic countries and low-imcome democratic countries. CRC ratification was associated with long-term child mortality trends in all groups except middle-income, non-democratic countries. CONCLUSIONS: Child mortality rates would likely have declined even in the absence of CRC ratification, but CRC is associated with a larger decline. Our findings provide a way to assess the effects of widely-held societal norms on health and demonstrate the moderating effects of democracy and income level.

Can the health effects of widely-held societal norms be evaluated? An analysis of the United Nations convention on the elimination of all forms of discrimination against women (UN-CEDAW).

BACKGROUND: Female life expectancy and mortality rates have been improving over the course of many decades. Many global changes offer potential explanations. In this paper, we examined whether the United Nations Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW) has, in part, been responsible for the observed improvements in these key population metrics of women's health. METHODS: Data were obtained from the United Nations Treaty Series Database, the World Bank World Development Indicators database and, the Polity IV database. Because CEDAW is nearly universally ratified, it was not feasible to compare ratifying countries to non-ratifying countries. We therefore applied interrupted times series analyses, which creates a comparator (counterfactual) scenario by using the trend in the health outcome before the policy exposure to mathematically determine what the trend in the health outcome would have been after the policy exposure, had the policy exposure not occurred. Analyses were stratified by country-level income and democratization. RESULTS: Among low-income countries, CEDAW improved outcomes in democratic, but not non-democratic countries. In middle-income countries, CEDAW largely had no effect and, among high-income countries, had largely positive effects. CONCLUSIONS: While population indicators of women's health have improved since CEDAW ratification, the impact of CEDAW ratification itself on these improvements varies across countries with differing levels of income and democratization.

Adherence to Predefined Dietary Patterns and Risk of Developing Type 2 Diabetes in the Canadian Adult Population.

OBJECTIVE: Diet quality indices are increasingly being used in epidemiologic research. However, no studies have addressed whether adherence to Canadian dietary guidelines is longitudinally associated with decreased risk of type 2 diabetes in a population-based sample. The objective of this study is to examine the association between the Healthy Eating Index (HEI) and incident type 2 diabetes in the Canadian population. METHODS: We used data from Ontario respondents to the 2004 Canadian Community Health Survey linked to health administrative data (n=4,755). Adherence to the HEI was analyzed with a 24-hour dietary recall. Type 2 diabetes was ascertained through the Ontario Diabetes Database, and tracked up to 12.1 years from baseline. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate type 2 diabetes risk as a function of HEI score. Given obesity's potential role as a mediator, we explored the effects of removing body mass index from the final model. RESULTS: High HEI adherence was not associated with a reduction in diabetes risk overall (hazard ratio [HR], 0.97; 95% confidence interval, 0.62 to 1.50), nor in separate strata of men (HR, 0.94) or women (HR, 1.03). Additional adjustment for body mass index attenuated the multivariable adjusted hazard ratios toward the null. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to prospectively explore the relationship between adherence to the dietary recommendations of the HEI and diabetes risk in a representative, population-based sample. Our analyses challenge previous findings and highlight the utility of linked data to evaluate the role of healthy dietary patterns in relation to population-level morbidity.

The association between food insecurity and incident type 2 diabetes in Canada: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: A pervasive and persistent finding is the health disadvantage experienced by those in food insecure households. While clear associations have been identified between food insecurity and diabetes risk factors, less is known about the relationship between food insecurity and incident type 2 diabetes. The objective of this study is to investigate the association between household food insecurity and the future development of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We used data from Ontario adult respondents to the 2004 Canadian Community Health Survey, linked to health administrative data (n = 4,739). Food insecurity was assessed with the Household Food Security Survey Module and incident type 2 diabetes cases were identified by the Ontario Diabetes Database. Multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for type 2 diabetes as a function of food insecurity. RESULTS: Canadians in food insecure households had more than 2 times the risk of developing type 2 diabetes compared to those in food secure households [HR = 2.40, 95% CI = 1.17-4.94]. Additional adjustment for BMI attenuated the association between food insecurity and type 2 diabetes [HR = 2.08, 95% CI = 0.99, 4.36]. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that food insecurity is independently associated with increased diabetes risk, even after adjustment for a broad set of measured confounders. Examining diabetes risk from a broader perspective, including a comprehensive understanding of socioeconomic and biological pathways is paramount for informing policies and interventions aimed at mitigating the future burden of type 2 diabetes.

Prevalence of behavioural risk factors for cardiovascular disease in adolescents in low-income and middle-income countries: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although overt manifestations of cardiovascular disease (CVD) rarely emerge before adulthood, CVD risk factors are often present in adolescents. However, the prevalence and magnitude of behavioural CVD risk factors in adolescents in low-income and middle-income countries remains unclear. We estimated the magnitude and co-occurrence of behavioural CVD risk factors in adolescents aged 12-15 years for 65 low-income and middle-income countries between 2003 and 2011. METHODS: We extracted Global School-Based Student Health Surveys (GSHS) datasets from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website. Pooled prevalence estimates of current tobacco use, alcohol use, low fruit and vegetable intake, low physical activity, obesity and co-occurrence of CVD risk factors for WHO regions and overall, was calculated with random-effects meta-analysis. We explored potential sources of heterogeneity for each CVD risk factor through random-effects meta-regression analysis. FINDINGS: Between 2003 and 2011, of 169 369 adolescents, 12·1% (95% CI 10·2-14·1) used tobacco, 15·7% (12·3-19·5) used alcohol, 74·3% (71·9 -76·5) had low fruit and vegetable intake, 71·4% (69·5-73·3) reported low physical activity and 7·1% (5·6-8·7) were obese. The pooled regional prevalence of exposure to three or more CVD risk factors was lowest in the southeast Asian region (3·8%, 95% CI 1·2-7·5) and highest in the western Pacific region (18·6%, 12·8-25·3). Substantial heterogeneities within and across regions were not fully explained by major study characteristics. INTERPRETATION: In low-income and middle-income countries, adolescents carry a substantial burden of behavioural CVD risk factors, which tend to co-occur. Surveillance, prevention, detection, and control initiatives are a global health priority. FUNDING: None.

Tobacco use in pregnant women: analysis of data from Demographic and Health Surveys from 54 low-income and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, use of tobacco is viewed as an important threat to the health of pregnant women and their children. However, the extent of tobacco use in pregnant women in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) remains unclear. We assessed the magnitude of tobacco use in pregnant women in LMICs. METHODS: We used data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) done in 54 LMICs between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 1, 2012, comprising 58 922 pregnant women (aged 15-49 years), which were grouped by WHO region. Prevalence of current tobacco use (smoked and smokeless) was estimated for every country. Pooled estimates by regions and overall were obtained from random-effects meta-analysis. FINDINGS: Pooled prevalence of any tobacco use in pregnant women in LMICs was 2·6% (95% CI 1·8-3·6); the lowest prevalence was in the African region (2·0%, 1·2-2·9) and the highest was in the Southeast Asian region (5·1%, 1·3-10·9). The pooled prevalence of current tobacco smoking in pregnant women ranged from 0·6% (0·3-0·8) in the African region to 3·5% (1·5-12·1) in the Western Pacific region. The pooled prevalence of current smokeless tobacco use in pregnant women was lowest in the European region (0·1%, 0·0-0·3) and highest in the Southeast Asian region (2·6%, 0·0-7·6). INTERPRETATION: Overall, tobacco use in pregnant women in LMICs was low; however high prevalence estimates were noted in some LMICs. Prevention and management of tobacco use and exposure to second-hand smoke in pregnancy is crucial to protect maternal and child health in LMICs. FUNDING: None.