Forecasting the monthly incidence of scarlet fever in Chongqing, China using the SARIMA model.

The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3-9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.

Exercise intervention may prevent depression.

Physical activity is an effective component of depression management. However, the mechanisms by which exercise affects behavioral disorders remain unclear. The present study was conducted to investigate mechanisms by which voluntary exercise ameliorates depression. Plasma cortisol levels and hippocampal monoamine neurotransmitters were measured. Chronic mild stress (CMS) was used to induce depression in a rat model. The rats were allowed to swim for 10 weeks as part of their exercise treatment. Depressive behavior was analyzed using an open-field test and a sucrose consumption test before and after exercise. Serum cortisol levels were measured by radioimmunoassay. The concentrations of monoamine neurotransmitters in the hippocampus were determined using high-performance liquid chromatography with electrochemical detection. The CMS rats showed behavioral improvement after exercise. Compared with the control, serum cortisol levels were significantly increased by CMS. The serotonin, dopamine, and norepinephrine levels in the hippocampi were significantly increased by exercise. These findings indicate that exercise reverses and prevents the decrease in serotonin and noradrenaline, and restores dopamine in the CMS model.

Two novel mutations in the Spastin gene of Chinese patients with hereditary spastic paraplegia.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Hereditary spastic paraplegia (HSP) is a clinically and genetically heterogeneous group of neurodegenerative diseases. Mutations in the spastin (SPG4) gene are responsible for approximately 40% of autosomal dominant HSP (AD-HSP) and 6.5-18% of sporadic cases. METHODS: Spastin mutations were screened in 11 AD-HSP families and 11 sporadic cases by direct sequencing and MLPA assay. Novel mutations were detected in 100 healthy controls by PCR-RFLP. RESULTS: We identified seven different spastin mutations in five probands and one sporadic patient. Two of seven mutations were novel. The c.458delT was a pathogenic mutation, but the effect of c.1724 G>T remained unknown. CONCLUSIONS: This study allowed us to estimate the frequency of the SPG4 mutations in Chinese at 45% (5/11) in families with AD-HSP and 9% (1/11) in sporadic cases. In addition, our data showed p.T614I was not associated with congenital arachnoid cysts.