Computational Models Used to Assess US Tobacco Control Policies.

INTRODUCTION: Simulation models can be used to evaluate existing and potential tobacco control interventions, including policies. The purpose of this systematic review was to synthesize evidence from computational models used to project population-level effects of tobacco control interventions. We provide recommendations to strengthen simulation models that evaluate tobacco control interventions. METHODS: Studies were eligible for review if they employed a computational model to predict the expected effects of a non-clinical US-based tobacco control intervention. We searched five electronic databases on July 1, 2013 with no date restrictions and synthesized studies qualitatively. RESULTS: Six primary non-clinical intervention types were examined across the 40 studies: taxation, youth prevention, smoke-free policies, mass media campaigns, marketing/advertising restrictions, and product regulation. Simulation models demonstrated the independent and combined effects of these interventions on decreasing projected future smoking prevalence. Taxation effects were the most robust, as studies examining other interventions exhibited substantial heterogeneity with regard to the outcomes and specific policies examined across models. CONCLUSIONS: Models should project the impact of interventions on overall tobacco use, including nicotine delivery product use, to estimate preventable health and cost-saving outcomes. Model validation, transparency, more sophisticated models, and modeling policy interactions are also needed to inform policymakers to make decisions that will minimize harm and maximize health. IMPLICATIONS: In this systematic review, evidence from multiple studies demonstrated the independent effect of taxation on decreasing future smoking prevalence, and models for other tobacco control interventions showed that these strategies are expected to decrease smoking, benefit population health, and are reasonable to implement from a cost perspective. Our recommendations aim to help policymakers and researchers minimize harm and maximize overall population-level health benefits by considering the real-world context in which tobacco control interventions are implemented.

Validity of a Subjective Financial Situation Measure to Assess Socioeconomic Status in US Young Adults.

PURPOSE: Young adulthood is an important period for preventing the establishment of negative health behaviors that can influence trajectories to chronic disease and early death. Given the evolving nature of educational attainment and income variation during this developmental period, identifying indicators of socioeconomic status (SES) remains a challenge. This study examines measures of subjective and objective indicators of SES to predict health risk for young adults. METHODS: This study uses data from the Truth Initiative Young Adult Cohort Study from respondents aged 18 to 34 years who completed 3 consecutive surveys between June 2011 and August 2012 (n = 2182). Analyses were conducted to compare a measure of subjective financial situation (SFS) to commonly used SES measures for adults and adolescents. Age-stratified, multivariable logistic regression was used to model the relationship between 5 SES indicators (SFS, household income, respondent education, parental education, and subjective childhood financial situation) and dichotomized versions of 3 health status measures (body mass index, self-reported health status, and quality of life), controlling for gender, race/ethnicity, and region. RESULTS: Findings indicate that SFS is associated with other commonly used SES measures. Prospective associations with health outcomes revealed that SFS is a stronger predictor of health outcomes among young adults aged 18 to 24 years as compared with other SES measures. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence that subjective financial situation may be more robust than traditional SES indicators in predicting health outcomes among young adults, particularly for 18- to 24-year-olds, and should be considered a viable candidate measure for assessing SES among this age group.

Direct-to-Consumer Marketing of Cigar Products in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: Although cigar use and sales have increased in the United States over the past decade, little is known about how these products are promoted. Direct-to-consumer (DTC) advertising is a common method used to promote tobacco products and may be a potential channel through which cigars are advertised. METHODS: Comperemedia (Mintel) was used to acquire opt-in direct mail and email advertising for the top 10 cigar brands in the United States between January 2013 and July 2014. The advertisement and corresponding data on brand, advertising spend, and mail volume were downloaded and summarized. Promotions such as coupons, giveaways, and sweepstakes were also examined. RESULTS: A total of 92 unique advertisements met the search criteria and included two brands: Black & Mild (n = 77) and Swisher Sweets (n = 15). Expenditures on direct mail advertising during this period totaled $12 809 630. Black & Mild encompassed 80% of total direct mail volume and 78% of direct mail advertising expenditures. Almost all advertisements contained at least one promotion (88%) and included a URL to the product website (85%). CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that Black & Mild and Swisher Sweets are the primary cigar brands using DTC advertising. Promotional offers were nearly ubiquitous among the advertisements, which may appeal to price-sensitive populations. Future studies should continue to examine cigar advertising via direct mail and email, in addition to other channels, such as the point-of-sale. IMPLICATIONS: Although cigar use and sales have increased in the United States over the past decade, there is limited data on cigar advertising. This article provides a snapshot of expenditures, volume, and promotional content of DTC cigar advertising in the United States between January 2013 and July 2014.

Medical costs and quality-adjusted life years associated with smoking: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Estimated medical costs ("T") and QALYs ("Q") associated with smoking are frequently used in cost-utility analyses of tobacco control interventions. The goal of this study was to understand how researchers have addressed the methodological challenges involved in estimating these parameters. METHODS: Data were collected as part of a systematic review of tobacco modeling studies. We searched five electronic databases on July 1, 2013 with no date restrictions and synthesized studies qualitatively. Studies were eligible for the current analysis if they were U.S.-based, provided an estimate for Q, and used a societal perspective and lifetime analytic horizon to estimate T. We identified common methods and frequently cited sources used to obtain these estimates. RESULTS: Across all 18 studies included in this review, 50 % cited a 1992 source to estimate the medical costs associated with smoking and 56 % cited a 1996 study to derive the estimate for QALYs saved by quitting or preventing smoking. Approaches for estimating T varied dramatically among the studies included in this review. T was valued as a positive number, negative number and $0; five studies did not include estimates for T in their analyses. The most commonly cited source for Q based its estimate on the Health Utilities Index (HUI). Several papers also cited sources that based their estimates for Q on the Quality of Well-Being Scale and the EuroQol five dimensions questionnaire (EQ-5D). CONCLUSIONS: Current estimates of the lifetime medical care costs and the QALYs associated with smoking are dated and do not reflect the latest evidence on the health effects of smoking, nor the current costs and benefits of smoking cessation and prevention. Given these limitations, we recommend that researchers conducting economic evaluations of tobacco control interventions perform extensive sensitivity analyses around these parameter estimates.

Costs and resource needs for primary health care in Ethiopia: evidence to inform planning and budgeting for universal health coverage.

Introduction: The Government of Ethiopia (GoE) has made significant progress in expanding access to primary health care (PHC) over the past 15 years. However, achieving national PHC targets for universal health coverage will require a significant increase in PHC financing. The purpose of this study was to generate cost evidence and provide recommendations to improve PHC efficiency. Methods: We used the open access Primary Health Care Costing, Analysis, and Planning (PHC-CAP) Tool to estimate actual and normative recurrent PHC costs in nine Ethiopian regions. The findings on actual costs were based on primary data collected in 2018/19 from a sample of 20 health posts, 25 health centers, and eight primary hospitals. Three different extrapolation methods were used to estimate actual costs in the nine sampled regions. Normative costs were calculated based on standard treatment protocols (STPs), the population in need of the PHC services included in the Essential Health Services Package (EHSP) as per the targets outlined in the Health Sector Transformation Plan II (HSTP II), and the associated costs. PHC resource gaps were estimated by comparing actual cost estimates to normative costs. Results: On average, the total cost of PHC in the sampled facilities was US$ 11,532 (range: US$ 934-40,746) in health posts, US$ 254,340 (range: US$ 68,860-832,647) in health centers, and US$ 634,354 (range: US$ 505,208-970,720) in primary hospitals. The average actual PHC cost per capita in the nine sampled regions was US$ 4.7, US$ 15.0, or US$ 20.2 depending on the estimation method used. When compared to the normative cost of US$ 38.5 per capita, all these estimates of actual PHC expenditures were significantly lower, indicating a shortfall in the funding required to deliver an expanded package of high-quality services to a larger population in line with GoE targets. Discussion: The study findings underscore the need for increased mobilization of PHC resources and identify opportunities to improve the efficiency of PHC services to meet the GoE's PHC targets. The data from this study can be a critical input for ongoing PHC financing reforms undertaken by the GoE including transitioning woreda-level planning from input-based to program-based budgeting, revising community-based health insurance (CBHI) packages, reviewing exempted services, and implementing strategic purchasing approaches such as capitation and performance-based financing.

Correlates of e-cigarette ad awareness and likeability in U.S. young adults.

BACKGROUND: Awareness and use of electronic cigarettes has rapidly increased among U.S. adults. The aim of this study was to examine awareness and likeability of e-cigarette print advertisements in a national sample of young adults and to examine ad likeability as a correlate of intended e-cigarette use among never e-cigarette users. METHODS: Participants (n = 2110, unweighted) of the Truth Initiative Young Adult Cohort (January 2013) were randomized to see four print ads (blu, Fin, NJOY, and White Cloud). Bivariate analyses provided descriptive characteristics of all participants and multivariable logistic regression examined the relationships between the average likeability score (across all four ads), curiosity about e-cigarettes, and susceptibility to using e-cigarettes among respondents who had never used e-cigarettes. RESULTS: Nearly 20% of participants reported awareness of the blu ad. Of the four e-cigarette ads, likeability was highest for the NJOY ad. Participants with higher ad likeability ratings had more than twice the odds of being curious to try an e-cigarette (AOR 2.33; 95% CI 1.84-2.95), try an e-cigarette soon (AOR 2.93; 95% CI 1.96-4.38), and try an e-cigarette if offered by best friend (AOR 2.48; 95% CI 1.95-3.15), after adjusting for other covariates. Current cigarette use was the strongest correlate of susceptibility to using an e-cigarette (p < .01) in the multivariable models. CONCLUSIONS: Higher ad likeability was correlated with greater susceptibility to try an e-cigarette among U.S. young adults. Future studies are needed to monitor how awareness and likeability of e-cigarette advertising influence patterns of e-cigarette and other tobacco use in young people.

Electronic nicotine delivery devices, and their impact on health and patterns of tobacco use: a systematic review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: E-cigarettes or electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) have recently attracted considerable attention. Among some individuals there is strong debate and a polarisation of views about the public health benefits versus harms of ENDS. With little regulation, the ENDS market is evolving, and new products are introduced and marketed constantly. Rapid developments in manufacturing, marketing and consumer domains related to ENDS will warrant frequent re-evaluation, based on the state of the evolving science. The purpose of this article is to describe a protocol for an ongoing comprehensive review of the published scientific literature on ENDS. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will undertake a systematic review of published empirical research literature on ENDS using the National Library of Medicine's PubMed electronic database to search for relevant articles. Data from included studies will be extracted into a standardised form, tables with study details and key outcomes for each article will be created, and studies will be synthesised qualitatively. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This review synthesises published literature and presents no primary data. Therefore, no ethical approval is required for this study. Subsequent papers will provide greater detail on results, within select categories, that represent gaps in the literature base.

Development assistance for neglected tropical diseases: progress since 2009.

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) is an umbrella term for a diverse group of debilitating infections that represent the most common afflictions for 2.7 billion people living on less than US$2 per day. Major efforts have recently re-focused attention on NTDs, including structured advocacy by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, technical and political support by WHO and large-scale drug donation programs by pharmaceutical companies. An analysis of the Official Development Assistance (ODA) for NTDs in 2009 showed that Development Assistance Committee members and multilateral donors had largely ignored funding NTD control projects. This study reviews the changes since 2009 and finds an increased engagement by pharmaceutical manufacturers through drug donation programs substantially increased by the 'London Declaration' in 2012, a focused effort of 77 public and private partners on control or elimination of the 10 most common NTDs, but no increase in ODA for NTDs between 2008 and 2012. The allocation of ODA still does not reflect the respective importance of these diseases.