Dynamic Prediction of Death in Patients With Tuberculous Meningitis Using Time-updated Glasgow Coma Scale and Plasma Sodium Measurements.

BACKGROUND: Pretreatment predictors of death from tuberculous meningitis (TBM) are well established, but whether outcome can be predicted more accurately after the start of treatment by updated clinical variables is unknown. Hence, we developed and validated models that dynamically predict mortality using time-updated Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and plasma sodium measurements, together with patient baseline characteristics. METHODS: We included 1048 adults from 4 TBM studies conducted in southern Vietnam from 2004 to 2016. We used a landmarking approach to predict death within 120 days after treatment initiation using time-updated data during the first 30 days of treatment. Separate models were built for patients with and without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. We used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to evaluate performance of the models at days 10, 20, and 30 of treatment to predict mortality by 60, 90, and 120 days. Our internal validation was corrected for overoptimism using bootstrap. We provide a web-based application that computes mortality risk within 120 days. RESULTS: Higher GCS indicated better prognosis in all patients. In HIV-infected patients, higher plasma sodium was uniformly associated with good prognosis, whereas in HIV-uninfected patients the association was heterogeneous over time. The bias-corrected AUC of the models ranged from 0.82 to 0.92 and 0.81 to 0.85 in HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected individuals, respectively. The models outperformed the previously published baseline models. CONCLUSIONS: Time-updated GCS and plasma sodium measurements improved predictions based solely on information obtained at diagnosis. Our models may be used in practice to define those with poor prognosis during treatment.

The influence of HIV infection on clinical presentation, response to treatment, and outcome in adults with Tuberculous meningitis.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculous meningitis occurs more commonly in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals than in HIV-uninfected individuals, but whether HIV infection alters the presentation and outcome of tuberculous meningitis is unknown. METHODS: We performed a prospective comparison of the presenting clinical features and response to treatment in 528 adults treated consecutively for tuberculous meningitis (96 were infected with HIV and 432 were uninfected with HIV) in 2 tertiary-care referral hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Logistic regression was used to model variables associated independently with HIV infection, 9-month survival, and the likelihood of having a relapse or an adverse drug event. Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to compare survival rates and times to fever clearance, coma clearance, relapse, and adverse events. RESULTS: HIV infection did not alter the neurological presentation of tuberculous meningitis, although additional extrapulmonary tuberculosis was more likely to occur in HIV-infected patients. The 9-month survival rate was significantly decreased in HIV-infected patients (relative risk of death from any cause, 2.91 [95% confidence interval, 2.14-3.96]; P < .001), although the times to fever clearance and coma clearance and the number or timing of relapses or adverse drug events were not significantly different between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: HIV infection does not alter the neurological features of tuberculous meningitis but significantly reduces the survival rate.

Pathophysiology and prognosis in vietnamese adults with tuberculous meningitis.

The pathogenesis of tuberculous meningitis remains unclear, and there are few data describing the kinetics of the immune response during the course of its treatment. We measured concentrations of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines in serial blood and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples from 21 adults who were being treated for tuberculous meningitis. CSF concentrations of soluble tumor necrosis factor-alpha receptors and of matrix metalloprotein-9 and its tissue inhibitor were also measured, and blood-brain barrier permeability was assessed by the albumin and IgG partition indices. CSF concentrations of lactate, interleukin-8, and interferon-gamma were high before treatment and then decreased rapidly with antituberculosis chemotherapy. However, significant immune activation and blood-brain barrier dysfunction were still apparent after 60 days of treatment. Death was associated with high initial CSF concentrations of lactate, low numbers of white blood cells, in particular neutrophils, and low CSF glucose levels.