Anthropogenic fingerprints in daily precipitation revealed by deep learning.

According to twenty-first century climate-model projections, greenhouse warming will intensify rainfall variability and extremes across the globe1-4. However, verifying this prediction using observations has remained a substantial challenge owing to large natural rainfall fluctuations at regional scales3,4. Here we show that deep learning successfully detects the emerging climate-change signals in daily precipitation fields during the observed record. We trained a convolutional neural network (CNN)5 with daily precipitation fields and annual global mean surface air temperature data obtained from an ensemble of present-day and future climate-model simulations6. After applying the algorithm to the observational record, we found that the daily precipitation data represented an excellent predictor for the observed planetary warming, as they showed a clear deviation from natural variability since the mid-2010s. Furthermore, we analysed the deep-learning model with an explainable framework and observed that the precipitation variability of the weather timescale (period less than 10 days) over the tropical eastern Pacific and mid-latitude storm-track regions was most sensitive to anthropogenic warming. Our results highlight that, although the long-term shifts in annual mean precipitation remain indiscernible from the natural background variability, the impact of global warming on daily hydrological fluctuations has already emerged.

Climate effects on archaic human habitats and species successions.

It has long been believed that climate shifts during the last 2 million years had a pivotal role in the evolution of our genus Homo1-3. However, given the limited number of representative palaeo-climate datasets from regions of anthropological interest, it has remained challenging to quantify this linkage. Here, we use an unprecedented transient Pleistocene coupled general circulation model simulation in combination with an extensive compilation of fossil and archaeological records to study the spatiotemporal habitat suitability for five hominin species over the past 2 million years. We show that astronomically forced changes in temperature, rainfall and terrestrial net primary production had a major impact on the observed distributions of these species. During the Early Pleistocene, hominins settled primarily in environments with weak orbital-scale climate variability. This behaviour changed substantially after the mid-Pleistocene transition, when archaic humans became global wanderers who adapted to a wide range of spatial climatic gradients. Analysis of the simulated hominin habitat overlap from approximately 300-400 thousand years ago further suggests that antiphased climate disruptions in southern Africa and Eurasia contributed to the evolutionary transformation of Homo heidelbergensis populations into Homo sapiens and Neanderthals, respectively. Our robust numerical simulations of climate-induced habitat changes provide a framework to test hypotheses on our human origin.

Human origins in a southern African palaeo-wetland and first migrations.

Anatomically modern humans originated in Africa around 200 thousand years ago (ka)1-4. Although some of the oldest skeletal remains suggest an eastern African origin2, southern Africa is home to contemporary populations that represent the earliest branch of human genetic phylogeny5,6. Here we generate, to our knowledge, the largest resource for the poorly represented and deepest-rooting maternal L0 mitochondrial DNA branch (198 new mitogenomes for a total of 1,217 mitogenomes) from contemporary southern Africans and show the geographical isolation of L0d1'2, L0k and L0g KhoeSan descendants south of the Zambezi river in Africa. By establishing mitogenomic timelines, frequencies and dispersals, we show that the L0 lineage emerged within the residual Makgadikgadi-Okavango palaeo-wetland of southern Africa7, approximately 200 ka (95% confidence interval, 240-165 ka). Genetic divergence points to a sustained 70,000-year-long existence of the L0 lineage before an out-of-homeland northeast-southwest dispersal between 130 and 110 ka. Palaeo-climate proxy and model data suggest that increased humidity opened green corridors, first to the northeast then to the southwest. Subsequent drying of the homeland corresponds to a sustained effective population size (L0k), whereas wet-dry cycles and probable adaptation to marine foraging allowed the southwestern migrants to achieve population growth (L0d1'2), as supported by extensive south-coastal archaeological evidence8-10. Taken together, we propose a southern African origin of anatomically modern humans with sustained homeland occupation before the first migrations of people that appear to have been driven by regional climate changes.

Mediterranean winter rainfall in phase with African monsoons during the past 1.36 million years.

Mediterranean climates are characterized by strong seasonal contrasts between dry summers and wet winters. Changes in winter rainfall are critical for regional socioeconomic development, but are difficult to simulate accurately1 and reconstruct on Quaternary timescales. This is partly because regional hydroclimate records that cover multiple glacial-interglacial cycles2,3 with different orbital geometries, global ice volume and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are scarce. Moreover, the underlying mechanisms of change and their persistence remain unexplored. Here we show that, over the past 1.36 million years, wet winters in the northcentral Mediterranean tend to occur with high contrasts in local, seasonal insolation and a vigorous African summer monsoon. Our proxy time series from Lake Ohrid on the Balkan Peninsula, together with a 784,000-year transient climate model hindcast, suggest that increased sea surface temperatures amplify local cyclone development and refuel North Atlantic low-pressure systems that enter the Mediterranean during phases of low continental ice volume and high concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. A comparison with modern reanalysis data shows that current drivers of the amount of rainfall in the Mediterranean share some similarities to those that drive the reconstructed increases in precipitation. Our data cover multiple insolation maxima and are therefore an important benchmark for testing climate model performance.

Author Correction: El Niño-Southern Oscillation complexity.

In this Review, the middle initial of author Kim M. Cobb was omitted. The original Review has been corrected online.

Phase synchronization between culture and climate forcing.

Over the history of humankind, cultural innovations have helped improve survival and adaptation to environmental stress. This has led to an overall increase in human population size, which in turn further contributed to cumulative cultural learning. During the Anthropocene, or arguably even earlier, this positive sociodemographic feedback has caused a strong decline in important resources that, coupled with projected future transgression of planetary boundaries, may potentially reverse the long-term trend in population growth. Here, we present a simple consumer/resource model that captures the coupled dynamics of stochastic cultural learning and transmission, population growth and resource depletion in a changing environment. The idealized stochastic mathematical model simulates boom/bust cycles between low-population subsistence, high-density resource exploitation and subsequent population decline. For slow resource recovery time scales and in the absence of climate forcing, the model predicts a long-term global population collapse. Including a simplified periodic climate forcing, we find that cultural innovation and population growth can couple with climatic forcing via nonlinear phase synchronization. We discuss the relevance of this finding in the context of cultural innovation, the anthropological record and long-term future resilience of our own predatory species.

Dispersal and interbreeding as survival strategies for species exposed to environment change.

The success of individual species under a change to the environment is dependent on a number of factors, which include the changes to habitat, competition with other species and adaptability. Here we investigate the impact of differing dispersal characteristics of two competing species responding to the change using an idealized spatio-temporal model. The rate of dispersion is given by a combination of the growth term and the form of the diffusion term, which is set to give either normal diffusion or anomalous (super) diffusion. The later is brought about by employing fractional diffusion and we characterize the population as being more adventurous than the population undergoing normal diffusion. The more adventurous population is found, not surprisingly, to reach and occupy uninhabited ground before the population undergoing normal diffusion can get there. Interbreeding is found to be important in that it can aid the spread of the less adventurous population preventing its extinction. The response to an abrupt environment change, taken here to be a change in the distribution of the growth rate, is dependent on the initial conditions, the dispersion characteristics, and the level of interbreeding, leading to very different intermediate and final states. Our results highlight instances when a particular dispersal strategy gives a population an edge over another. In the cases considered here we find states where the more adventurous population can dominate across the domain, the two populations exist in separate parts of the domain separated by fronts, and both populations coexist across the domain in the medium term with one or other of the populations dominating across the domain in the long term. Given the long time to reach equilibrium where one or other of the populations dominate, consideration needs to be put to the time scale of change, as sufficiently frequent change can allow coexistence. We demonstrate the need to include dispersion characteristics when considering the factors affecting the response of species to a change in the environment.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation complexity.

El Niño events are characterized by surface warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean and weakening of equatorial trade winds that occur every few years. Such conditions are accompanied by changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation, affecting global climate, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, fisheries and human activities. The alternation of warm El Niño and cold La Niña conditions, referred to as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), represents the strongest year-to-year fluctuation of the global climate system. Here we provide a synopsis of our current understanding of the spatio-temporal complexity of this important climate mode and its influence on the Earth system.

Timing and magnitude of Southern Ocean sea ice/carbon cycle feedbacks.

The Southern Ocean (SO) played a prominent role in the exchange of carbon between ocean and atmosphere on glacial timescales through its regulation of deep ocean ventilation. Previous studies indicated that SO sea ice could dynamically link several processes of carbon sequestration, but these studies relied on models with simplified ocean and sea ice dynamics or snapshot simulations with general circulation models. Here, we use a transient run of an intermediate complexity climate model, covering the past eight glacial cycles, to investigate the orbital-scale dynamics of deep ocean ventilation changes due to SO sea ice. Cold climates increase sea ice cover, sea ice export, and Antarctic Bottom Water formation, which are accompanied by increased SO upwelling, stronger poleward export of Circumpolar Deep Water, and a reduction of the atmospheric exposure time of surface waters by a factor of 10. Moreover, increased brine formation around Antarctica enhances deep ocean stratification, which could act to decrease vertical mixing by a factor of four compared with the current climate. Sensitivity tests with a steady-state carbon cycle model indicate that the two mechanisms combined can reduce atmospheric carbon by 40 ppm, with ocean stratification acting early within a glacial cycle to amplify the carbon cycle response.

Late Pleistocene climate drivers of early human migration.

On the basis of fossil and archaeological data it has been hypothesized that the exodus of Homo sapiens out of Africa and into Eurasia between ~50-120 thousand years ago occurred in several orbitally paced migration episodes. Crossing vegetated pluvial corridors from northeastern Africa into the Arabian Peninsula and the Levant and expanding further into Eurasia, Australia and the Americas, early H. sapiens experienced massive time-varying climate and sea level conditions on a variety of timescales. Hitherto it has remained difficult to quantify the effect of glacial- and millennial-scale climate variability on early human dispersal and evolution. Here we present results from a numerical human dispersal model, which is forced by spatiotemporal estimates of climate and sea level changes over the past 125 thousand years. The model simulates the overall dispersal of H. sapiens in close agreement with archaeological and fossil data and features prominent glacial migration waves across the Arabian Peninsula and the Levant region around 106-94, 89-73, 59-47 and 45-29 thousand years ago. The findings document that orbital-scale global climate swings played a key role in shaping Late Pleistocene global population distributions, whereas millennial-scale abrupt climate changes, associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger events, had a more limited regional effect.

Saharan green corridors and Middle Pleistocene hominin dispersals across the Eastern Desert, Sudan.

The Sahara Desert episodically became a space available for hominins in the Pleistocene. Mostly, desert conditions prevailed during the interpluvial periods, which were only periodically interrupted by enhanced precipitation during pluvial or interglacial periods. Responding to Quaternary climatic changes, hominin dispersal was channeled through vegetated corridors. This manuscript introduces a recently discovered group of Acheulean and Middle Stone Age sites far from the Nile Valley in the Eastern Desert (Sudan), referred to as Eastern Desert Atbara River (EDAR). The ∼5 m stratigraphy of the area is divided into three units (Units I-III) bounded by erosion surfaces. Each contains archaeological horizons. The EDAR area has rich surface sites with Acheulean horizons under the surface, singular finds of hand-axes within stratigraphic context in exposures, and large Acheulean sites partly exposed and destroyed by the gold mining activity. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of Acheulean and MSA horizons from the EDAR 135 site indicates that the sedimentary deposits with stone artifacts were formed during the Middle Pleistocene between Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 7 (pluvial) and 6 (interpluvial). Based on the OSL dating from the top of Unit IB, Acheulean artifact-bearing sedimentary deposits from overlying Unit IIA are younger than ca. 231 ka. Unit IA is the oldest Acheulean horizon in the EDAR area, not yet dated but definitively older than ca. 231 ka. An MSA horizon found in fluvial sediment was dated to be between 156 and 181 ka by OSL. The EDAR Pleistocene archaeological sites provide evidence for the presence of additional corridor(s) across Nubia, which connects the early hominin dispersals from the Nile and Atbara River systems to the Red Sea coast.

More extreme swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming.

The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is the Southern Hemisphere's most expansive and persistent rain band, extending from the equatorial western Pacific Ocean southeastward towards French Polynesia. Owing to its strong rainfall gradient, a small displacement in the position of the SPCZ causes drastic changes to hydroclimatic conditions and the frequency of extreme weather events--such as droughts, floods and tropical cyclones--experienced by vulnerable island countries in the region. The SPCZ position varies from its climatological mean location with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), moving a few degrees northward during moderate El Niño events and southward during La Niña events. During strong El Niño events, however, the SPCZ undergoes an extreme swing--by up to ten degrees of latitude toward the Equator--and collapses to a more zonally oriented structure with commensurately severe weather impacts. Understanding changes in the characteristics of the SPCZ in a changing climate is therefore of broad scientific and socioeconomic interest. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a near doubling in the occurrences of zonal SPCZ events between the periods 1891-1990 and 1991-2090 in response to greenhouse warming, even in the absence of a consensus on how ENSO will change. We estimate the increase in zonal SPCZ events from an aggregation of the climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5 (CMIP3 and CMIP5) multi-model database that are able to simulate such events. The change is caused by a projected enhanced equatorial warming in the Pacific and may lead to more frequent occurrences of extreme events across the Pacific island nations most affected by zonal SPCZ events.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation frequency cascade.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, the most pronounced feature of internally generated climate variability, occurs on interannual timescales and impacts the global climate system through an interaction with the annual cycle. The tight coupling between ENSO and the annual cycle is particularly pronounced over the tropical Western Pacific. Here we show that this nonlinear interaction results in a frequency cascade in the atmospheric circulation, which is characterized by deterministic high-frequency variability on near-annual and subannual timescales. Through climate model experiments and observational analysis, it is documented that a substantial fraction of the anomalous Northwest Pacific anticyclone variability, which is the main atmospheric link between ENSO and the East Asian Monsoon system, can be explained by these interactions and is thus deterministic and potentially predictable.

The Holocene temperature conundrum.

A recent temperature reconstruction of global annual temperature shows Early Holocene warmth followed by a cooling trend through the Middle to Late Holocene [Marcott SA, et al., 2013, Science 339(6124):1198-1201]. This global cooling is puzzling because it is opposite from the expected and simulated global warming trend due to the retreating ice sheets and rising atmospheric greenhouse gases. Our critical reexamination of this contradiction between the reconstructed cooling and the simulated warming points to potentially significant biases in both the seasonality of the proxy reconstruction and the climate sensitivity of current climate models.

Role of the Bering Strait on the hysteresis of the ocean conveyor belt circulation and glacial climate stability.

Abrupt climate transitions, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events, occurred frequently during the last glacial period, specifically from 80-11 thousand years before present, but were nearly absent during interglacial periods and the early stages of glacial periods, when major ice-sheets were still forming. Here we show, with a fully coupled state-of-the-art climate model, that closing the Bering Strait and preventing its throughflow between the Pacific and Arctic Oceans during the glacial period can lead to the emergence of stronger hysteresis behavior of the ocean conveyor belt circulation to create conditions that are conducive to triggering abrupt climate transitions. Hence, it is argued that even for greenhouse warming, abrupt climate transitions similar to those in the last glacial time are unlikely to occur as the Bering Strait remains open.

The evolving three-dimensional landscape of human adaptation.

Over the past 3 million years, humans have expanded their ecological niche and adapted to more diverse environments. The temporal evolution and underlying drivers behind this niche expansion remain largely unknown. By combining archeological findings with landscape topographic data and model simulations of the climate and biomes, we show that human sites clustered in areas with increased terrain roughness, corresponding to higher levels of biodiversity. We find a gradual increase in human habitat preferences toward rough terrains until about 1.1 million years ago (Ma), followed by a 300 thousand-year-long contraction of the ecological niche. This period coincided with the Mid-Pleistocene Transition and previously hypothesized ancestral population bottlenecks. Our statistical analysis further reveals that from 0.8 Ma onward, the human niche expanded again, with human species (e.g., H. heidelbergensis, H. neanderthalensis, and H. sapiens) adapting to rougher terrain, colder and drier conditions, and toward regions of higher ecological diversity.

Abrupt increase in Arctic-Subarctic wildfires caused by future permafrost thaw.

Unabated 21st-century climate change will accelerate Arctic-Subarctic permafrost thaw which can intensify microbial degradation of carbon-rich soils, methane emissions, and global warming. The impact of permafrost thaw on future Arctic-Subarctic wildfires and the associated release of greenhouse gases and aerosols is less well understood. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of the effect of future permafrost thaw on land surface processes in the Arctic-Subarctic region using the CESM2 large ensemble forced by the SSP3-7.0 greenhouse gas emission scenario. Analyzing 50 greenhouse warming simulations, which capture the coupling between permafrost, hydrology, and atmosphere, we find that projected rapid permafrost thaw leads to massive soil drying, surface warming, and reduction of relative humidity over the Arctic-Subarctic region. These combined processes lead to nonlinear late-21st-century regime shifts in the coupled soil-hydrology system and rapid intensification of wildfires in western Siberia and Canada.

Moisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate.

The intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) is expected to increase in response to greenhouse warming. However, how future climate change will affect TC frequencies and tracks is still under debate. Here, to further elucidate the underlying sensitivities and mechanisms, we study TCs response to different past and future climate forcings. Using a high-resolution TC-resolving global Earth system model with 1/4° atmosphere and 1/10° ocean resolution, we conducted a series of paleo-time-slice and future greenhouse warming simulations targeting the last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, 125 ka), glacial sub-stage MIS5d (115 ka), present-day (PD), and CO2 doubling (2×CO2) conditions. Our analysis reveals that precessional forcing created an interhemispheric difference in simulated TC densities, whereas future CO2 forcing impacts both hemispheres in the same direction. In both cases, we find that TC genesis frequency, density, and intensity are primarily controlled by changes in tropospheric thermal and moisture structure, exhibiting a clear reduction in TC genesis density in warmer hemispheres.

Future Indian Ocean warming patterns.

Most future projections conducted with coupled general circulation models simulate a non-uniform Indian Ocean warming, with warming hotspots occurring in the Arabian Sea (AS) and the southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO). But little is known about the underlying physical drivers. Here, we are using a suite of large ensemble simulations of the Community Earth System Model 2 to elucidate the causes of non-uniform Indian Ocean warming. Strong negative air-sea interactions in the Eastern Indian Ocean are responsible for a future weakening of the zonal sea surface temperature gradient, resulting in a slowdown of the Indian Ocean Walker circulation and the generation of southeasterly wind anomalies over the AS. These contribute to anomalous northward ocean heat transport, reduced evaporative cooling, a weakening in upper ocean vertical mixing and an enhanced AS future warming. In contrast, the projected warming in the SEIO is related to a reduction of low-cloud cover and an associated increase in shortwave radiation. Therefore, the regional character of air-sea interactions plays a key role in promoting future large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation anomalies with implications for society and ecosystems far outside the Indian Ocean realm.