Effect of climate change on fluxes of nitrogen from the Tovdal River basin, Norway, to adjoining marine areas.

The mass transport model TEOTIL was used to project nitrate (NO3) fluxes from the Tovdal River basin, southernmost Norway, given four scenarios of climate change. Forests, uplands, and open water currently account for 90% of the NO3 flux. Climate scenarios for 2071-2100 suggest increased temperature by 2-4 degrees C and precipitation by 3-11%. Climate experiments and long-term monitoring were used to estimate future rates of nitrogen (N) leaching. More water will run through the terrestrial catchments during the winter but less will run in the spring. The annual NO3 flux from the Tovdal River to the adjoining Topdalsfjord is projected to remain unchanged, but with more NO3 delivered in the winter and less in the spring. Algal blooms in coastal waters can be expected to occur earlier in the year. Major sources of uncertainty are in the long-term fate of N stored in soil organic matter and the impacts of forest management.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment combined with hydrodynamic modelling to estimate the public health risk associated with bathing after rainfall events.

This study investigated the public health risk from exposure to infectious microorganisms at Sandvika recreational beaches, Norway and dose-response relationships by combining hydrodynamic modelling with Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA). Meteorological and hydrological data were collected to produce a calibrated hydrodynamic model using Escherichia coli as an indicator of faecal contamination. Based on average concentrations of reference pathogens (norovirus, Campylobacter, Salmonella, Giardia and Cryptosporidium) relative to E. coli in Norwegian sewage from previous studies, the hydrodynamic model was used for simulating the concentrations of pathogens at the local beaches during and after a heavy rainfall event, using three different decay rates. The simulated concentrations were used as input for QMRA and the public health risk was estimated as probability of infection from a single exposure of bathers during the three consecutive days after the rainfall event. The level of risk on the first day after the rainfall event was acceptable for the bacterial and parasitic reference pathogens, but high for the viral reference pathogen at all beaches, and severe at Kalvøya-small and Kalvøya-big beaches, supporting the advice of avoiding swimming in the day(s) after heavy rainfall. The study demonstrates the potential of combining discharge-based hydrodynamic modelling with QMRA in the context of bathing water as a tool to evaluate public health risk and support beach management decisions.