An unexpectedly large count of trees in the West African Sahara and Sahel.

A large proportion of dryland trees and shrubs (hereafter referred to collectively as trees) grow in isolation, without canopy closure. These non-forest trees have a crucial role in biodiversity, and provide ecosystem services such as carbon storage, food resources and shelter for humans and animals1,2. However, most public interest relating to trees is devoted to forests, and trees outside of forests are not well-documented3. Here we map the crown size of each tree more than 3 m2 in size over a land area that spans 1.3 million km2 in the West African Sahara, Sahel and sub-humid zone, using submetre-resolution satellite imagery and deep learning4. We detected over 1.8 billion individual trees (13.4 trees per hectare), with a median crown size of 12 m2, along a rainfall gradient from 0 to 1,000 mm per year. The canopy cover increases from 0.1% (0.7 trees per hectare) in hyper-arid areas, through 1.6% (9.9 trees per hectare) in arid and 5.6% (30.1 trees per hectare) in semi-arid zones, to 13.3% (47 trees per hectare) in sub-humid areas. Although the overall canopy cover is low, the relatively high density of isolated trees challenges prevailing narratives about dryland desertification5-7, and even the desert shows a surprisingly high tree density. Our assessment suggests a way to monitor trees outside of forests globally, and to explore their role in mitigating degradation, climate change and poverty.

Vegetation dynamics and rainfall sensitivity of the Amazon.

We show that the vegetation canopy of the Amazon rainforest is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation patterns and that reduction in rainfall since 2000 has diminished vegetation greenness across large parts of Amazonia. Large-scale directional declines in vegetation greenness may indicate decreases in carbon uptake and substantial changes in the energy balance of the Amazon. We use improved estimates of surface reflectance from satellite data to show a close link between reductions in annual precipitation, El Niño southern oscillation events, and photosynthetic activity across tropical and subtropical Amazonia. We report that, since the year 2000, precipitation has declined across 69% of the tropical evergreen forest (5.4 million km(2)) and across 80% of the subtropical grasslands (3.3 million km(2)). These reductions, which coincided with a decline in terrestrial water storage, account for about 55% of a satellite-observed widespread decline in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). During El Niño events, NDVI was reduced about 16.6% across an area of up to 1.6 million km(2) compared with average conditions. Several global circulation models suggest that a rise in equatorial sea surface temperature and related displacement of the intertropical convergence zone could lead to considerable drying of tropical forests in the 21st century. Our results provide evidence that persistent drying could degrade Amazonian forest canopies, which would have cascading effects on global carbon and climate dynamics.

Nation-wide mapping of tree-level aboveground carbon stocks in Rwanda.

Trees sustain livelihoods and mitigate climate change but a predominance of trees outside forests and limited resources make it difficult for many tropical countries to conduct automated nation-wide inventories. Here, we propose an approach to map the carbon stock of each individual overstory tree at the national scale of Rwanda using aerial imagery from 2008 and deep learning. We show that 72% of the mapped trees are located in farmlands and savannas and 17% in plantations, accounting for 48.6% of the national aboveground carbon stocks. Natural forests cover 11% of the total tree count and 51.4% of the national carbon stocks, with an overall carbon stock uncertainty of 16.9%. The mapping of all trees allows partitioning to any landscapes classification and is urgently needed for effective planning and monitoring of restoration activities as well as for optimization of carbon sequestration, biodiversity and economic benefits of trees.

More than one quarter of Africa's tree cover is found outside areas previously classified as forest.

The consistent monitoring of trees both inside and outside of forests is key to sustainable land management. Current monitoring systems either ignore trees outside forests or are too expensive to be applied consistently across countries on a repeated basis. Here we use the PlanetScope nanosatellite constellation, which delivers global very high-resolution daily imagery, to map both forest and non-forest tree cover for continental Africa using images from a single year. Our prototype map of 2019 (RMSE = 9.57%, bias = -6.9%). demonstrates that a precise assessment of all tree-based ecosystems is possible at continental scale, and reveals that 29% of tree cover is found outside areas previously classified as tree cover in state-of-the-art maps, such as in croplands and grassland. Such accurate mapping of tree cover down to the level of individual trees and consistent among countries has the potential to redefine land use impacts in non-forest landscapes, move beyond the need for forest definitions, and build the basis for natural climate solutions and tree-related studies.

Prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation related climate anomalies were analyzed by using a combination of satellite measurements of elevated sea-surface temperatures and subsequent elevated rainfall and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index data. A Rift Valley fever (RVF) risk mapping model using these climate data predicted areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa from December 2006 to May 2007. The predictions were subsequently confirmed by entomological and epidemiological field investigations of virus activity in the areas identified as at risk. Accurate spatial and temporal predictions of disease activity, as it occurred first in southern Somalia and then through much of Kenya before affecting northern Tanzania, provided a 2 to 6 week period of warning for the Horn of Africa that facilitated disease outbreak response and mitigation activities. To our knowledge, this is the first prospective prediction of a RVF outbreak.

Correction: Reanalysis of the 2000 Rift Valley fever outbreak in Southwestern Arabia.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0233279.].

Reanalysis of the 2000 Rift Valley fever outbreak in Southwestern Arabia.

The first documented Rift Valley hemorrhagic fever outbreak in the Arabian Peninsula occurred in northwestern Yemen and southwestern Saudi Arabia from August 2000 to September 2001. This Rift Valley fever outbreak is unique because the virus was introduced into Arabia during or after the 1997-1998 East African outbreak and before August 2000, either by wind-blown infected mosquitos or by infected animals, both from East Africa. A wet period from August 2000 into 2001 resulted in a large number of amplification vector mosquitoes, these mosquitos fed on infected animals, and the outbreak occurred. More than 1,500 people were diagnosed with the disease, at least 215 died, and widespread losses of domestic animals were reported. Using a combination of satellite data products, including 2 x 2 m digital elevation images derived from commercial satellite data, we show rainfall and potential areas of inundation or water impoundment were favorable for the 2000 outbreak. However, favorable conditions for subsequent outbreaks were present in 2007 and 2013, and very favorable conditions were also present in 2016-2018. The lack of subsequent Rift Valley fever outbreaks in this area suggests that Rift Valley fever has not been established in mosquito species in Southwest Arabia, or that strict animal import inspection and quarantine procedures, medical and veterinary surveillance, and mosquito control efforts put in place in Saudi Arabia following the 2000 outbreak have been successful. Any area with Rift Valley fever amplification vector mosquitos present is a potential outbreak area unless strict animal import inspection and quarantine proceedures are in place.

Author Correction: Global disease outbreaks associated with the 2015-2016 El Niño Event.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Changes in rainfall distribution promote woody foliage production in the Sahel.

Dryland ecosystems comprise a balance between woody and herbaceous vegetation. Climate change impacts rainfall timing, which may alter the respective contributions of woody and herbaceous plants on the total vegetation production. Here, we apply 30 years of field-measured woody foliage and herbaceous mass from Senegal and document a faster increase in woody foliage mass (+17 kg ha-1 yr-1) as compared to herbaceous mass (+3 kg ha-1 yr-1). Annual rainfall trends were partitioned into core wet-season rains (+0.7 mm yr-1), supporting a weak but periodic (5-year cycles) increase in herbaceous mass, and early/late rains (+2.1 mm yr-1), explaining the strongly increased woody foliage mass. Satellite observations confirm these findings for the majority of the Sahel, with total herbaceous/woody foliage mass increases by 6%/20%. We conclude that the rainfall recovery in the Sahel does not benefit herbaceous vegetation to the same extent as woody vegetation, presumably favoured by increased early/late rains.

Global Disease Outbreaks Associated with the 2015-2016 El Niño Event.

Interannual climate variability patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon result in climate and environmental anomaly conditions in specific regions worldwide that directly favor outbreaks and/or amplification of variety of diseases of public health concern including chikungunya, hantavirus, Rift Valley fever, cholera, plague, and Zika. We analyzed patterns of some disease outbreaks during the strong 2015-2016 El Niño event in relation to climate anomalies derived from satellite measurements. Disease outbreaks in multiple El Niño-connected regions worldwide (including Southeast Asia, Tanzania, western US, and Brazil) followed shifts in rainfall, temperature, and vegetation in which both drought and flooding occurred in excess (14-81% precipitation departures from normal). These shifts favored ecological conditions appropriate for pathogens and their vectors to emerge and propagate clusters of diseases activity in these regions. Our analysis indicates that intensity of disease activity in some ENSO-teleconnected regions were approximately 2.5-28% higher during years with El Niño events than those without. Plague in Colorado and New Mexico as well as cholera in Tanzania were significantly associated with above normal rainfall (p < 0.05); while dengue in Brazil and southeast Asia were significantly associated with above normal land surface temperature (p < 0.05). Routine and ongoing global satellite monitoring of key climate variable anomalies calibrated to specific regions could identify regions at risk for emergence and propagation of disease vectors. Such information can provide sufficient lead-time for outbreak prevention and potentially reduce the burden and spread of ecologically coupled diseases.

Earth observations and integrative models in support of food and water security.

Global food production depends upon many factors that Earth observing satellites routinely measure about water, energy, weather, and ecosystems. Increasingly sophisticated, publicly-available satellite data products can improve efficiencies in resource management and provide earlier indication of environmental disruption. Satellite remote sensing provides a consistent, long-term record that can be used effectively to detect large-scale features over time, such as a developing drought. Accuracy and capabilities have increased along with the range of Earth observations and derived products that can support food security decisions with actionable information. This paper highlights major capabilities facilitated by satellite observations and physical models that have been developed and validated using remotely-sensed observations. Although we primarily focus on variables relevant to agriculture, we also include a brief description of the growing use of Earth observations in support of aquaculture and fisheries.

Long-term surveillance data and patterns of invasion by Aedes albopictus in Florida.

We used geographic information system (GIS) and long-term mosquito surveillance data from Lake, Pasco, Manatee, and Sarasota Counties, FL, to look at patterns of invasion by Aedes albopictus and concurrent changes in resident Ae. aegypti. We investigated environmental factors associated with population changes in these species with the use of satellite climate data. Aedes aegypti densities attenuated rapidly following the arrival of Ae. albopictus in most counties, yet both species persisted in equilibrium in Manatee County. We discuss the relative importance of rainfall, habitat, and proximity to urban areas in the population dynamics of these species in sympatry.

Satellite vegetation index data as a tool to forecast population dynamics of medically important mosquitoes at military installations in the continental United States.

The United States faces many existing and emerging mosquito-borne disease threats, such as West Nile virus and Rift Valley fever. An important component of strategic prevention and control plans for these and other mosquito-borne diseases is forecasting the distribution, timing, and abundance of mosquito vector populations. Populations of many medically important mosquito species are closely tied to climate, and historical climate-population associations may be used to predict future population dynamics. Using 2003-2005 U.S. Army Center for Health Promotion and Preventive Medicine mosquito surveillance data, we looked at populations of several known mosquito vectors of West Nile virus, as well as possible mosquito vectors of Rift Valley fever virus, at continental U.S. military installations. We compared population changes with concurrent patterns for a satellite-derived index of climate (normalized difference vegetation index) and observed instances of population changes appearing to be direct responses to climate. These preliminary findings are important first steps in developing an automated, climate-driven, early warning system to flag regions of the United States at elevated risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission.

"Reduction of tree cover in West African woodlands and promotion in semi-arid farmlands".

Woody vegetation in farmland acts as a carbon sink and provides ecosystem services for local people, but no macro-scale assessments of the impact of management and climate on woody cover exists for drylands. Here we make use of very high spatial resolution satellite imagery to derive wall-to-wall woody cover patterns in tropical West African drylands. Our study reveals a consistently high woody cover in farmlands along all semi-arid and sub-humid rainfall zones (16%), on average only 6% lower than in savannas. In semi-arid Sahel, farmland management increases woody cover to a greater level (12%) than found in neighbouring savannas (6%), whereas farmlands in sub-humid zones have a reduced woody cover (20%) as compared to savannas (30%). In the region as a whole, rainfall, terrain and soil are the most important (80%) determinants of woody cover, while management factors play a smaller (20%) role. We conclude that agricultural expansion cannot generally be claimed to cause woody cover losses, and that observations in Sahel contradict simplistic ideas of a high negative correlation between population density and woody cover.

Drought-associated chikungunya emergence along coastal East Africa.

Epidemics of chikungunya fever, an Aedes spp.-borne viral disease, affected hundreds of thousands of people in western Indian Ocean islands and India during 2005-2006. The initial outbreaks occurred in coastal Kenya (Lamu, then Mombasa) in 2004. We investigated eco-climatic conditions associated with chikungunya fever emergence along coastal Kenya using epidemiologic investigations and satellite data. Unusually dry, warm conditions preceded the outbreaks, including the driest since 1998 for some of the coastal regions. Infrequent replenishment of domestic water stores and elevated temperatures may have facilitated Chikungunya virus transmission. These results suggest that drought-affected populations may be at heightened risk for chikungunya fever, and underscore the need for safe water storage during drought relief operations.

Thirty years of land-cover change in Bolivia.

Land-cover change in eastern lowland Bolivia was documented using Landsat images from five epochs for all landscapes situated below the montane tree line at approximately 3000 m, including humid forest, inundated forest, seasonally dry forest, and cloud forest, as well as scrublands and grasslands. Deforestation in eastern Bolivia in 2004 covered 45,411 km2, representing approximately 9% of the original forest cover, with an additional conversion of 9042 km2 of scrub and savanna habitats representing 17% of total historical land-cover change. Annual rates of land-cover change increased from approximately 400 km2 y(-1) in the 1960s to approximately 2900 km2 y(-1) in the last epoch spanning 2001 to 2004. This study provides Bolivia with a spatially explicit information resource to monitor future land-cover change, a prerequisite for proposed mechanisms to compensate countries for reducing carbon emissions as a result of deforestation. A comparison of the most recent epoch with previous periods shows that policies enacted in the late 1990s to promote forest conservation had no observable impact on reducing deforestation and that deforestation actually increased in some protected areas. The rate of land-cover change continues to increase linearly nationwide, but is growing faster in the Santa Cruz department because of the expansion of mechanized agriculture and cattle farms.

Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006-2007.

BACKGROUND: El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data. RESULTS: Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July - October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 - January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications are that the following regions are at increased risk for disease outbreaks: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and most of the southeast Asia Islands for increased dengue fever transmission and increased respiratory illness; Coastal Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Colombia for increased risk of malaria; Bangladesh and coastal India for elevated risk of cholera; East Africa for increased risk of a Rift Valley fever outbreak and elevated malaria; southwest USA for increased risk for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome and plague; southern California for increased West Nile virus transmission; and northeast Brazil for increased dengue fever and respiratory illness. CONCLUSION: The current development of El Niño conditions has significant implications for global public health. Extremes in climate events with above normal rainfall and flooding in some regions and extended drought periods in other regions will occur. Forecasting disease is critical for timely and efficient planning of operational control programs. In this paper we describe developing global climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks that will give decision makers additional tools to make rational judgments concerning implementation of disease prevention and mitigation strategies.

Trigger events: enviroclimatic coupling of Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks.

We use spatially continuous satellite data as a correlate of precipitation within tropical Africa and show that the majority of documented Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks were closely associated with sharply drier conditions at the end of the rainy season. We propose that these trigger events may enhance transmission of Ebola virus from its cryptic reservoir to humans. These findings suggest specific directions to help understand the sylvatic cycle of the virus and may provide early warning tools to detect possible future outbreaks of this enigmatic disease.

Recent weather extremes and impacts on agricultural production and vector-borne disease outbreak patterns.

We document significant worldwide weather anomalies that affected agriculture and vector-borne disease outbreaks during the 2010-2012 period. We utilized 2000-2012 vegetation index and land surface temperature data from NASA's satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to map the magnitude and extent of these anomalies for diverse regions including the continental United States, Russia, East Africa, Southern Africa, and Australia. We demonstrate that shifts in temperature and/or precipitation have significant impacts on vegetation patterns with attendant consequences for agriculture and public health. Weather extremes resulted in excessive rainfall and flooding as well as severe drought, which caused ∼10 to 80% variation in major agricultural commodity production (including wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum) and created exceptional conditions for extensive mosquito-borne disease outbreaks of dengue, Rift Valley fever, Murray Valley encephalitis, and West Nile virus disease. Analysis of MODIS data provided a standardized method for quantifying the extreme weather anomalies observed during this period. Assessments of land surface conditions from satellite-based systems such as MODIS can be a valuable tool in national, regional, and global weather impact determinations.