Predicting Risk of Colorectal Cancer After Adenoma Removal in a Large Community-Based Setting.

INTRODUCTION: Colonoscopy surveillance guidelines categorize individuals as high or low risk for future colorectal cancer (CRC) based primarily on their prior polyp characteristics, but this approach is imprecise, and consideration of other risk factors may improve postpolypectomy risk stratification. METHODS: Among patients who underwent a baseline colonoscopy with removal of a conventional adenoma in 2004-2016, we compared the performance for postpolypectomy CRC risk prediction (through 2020) of a comprehensive model featuring patient age, diabetes diagnosis, and baseline colonoscopy indication and prior polyp findings (i.e., adenoma with advanced histology, polyp size ≥10 mm, and sessile serrated adenoma or traditional serrated adenoma) with a polyp model featuring only polyp findings. Models were developed using Cox regression. Performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. RESULTS: Among 95,001 patients randomly divided 70:30 into model development (n = 66,500) and internal validation cohorts (n = 28,501), 495 CRC were subsequently diagnosed; 354 in the development cohort and 141 in the validation cohort. Models demonstrated adequate calibration, and the comprehensive model demonstrated superior predictive performance to the polyp model in the development cohort (AUC 0.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.68-0.74 vs AUC 0.61, 95% CI 0.58-0.64, respectively) and validation cohort (AUC 0.70, 95% CI 0.65-0.75 vs AUC 0.62, 95% CI 0.57-0.67, respectively). DISCUSSION: A comprehensive CRC risk prediction model featuring patient age, diabetes diagnosis, and baseline colonoscopy indication and polyp findings was more accurate at predicting postpolypectomy CRC diagnosis than a model based on polyp findings alone.

Impact of a scalable training program on the quality of colonoscopy performance and risk of postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Endoscopist adenoma detection rates (ADRs) vary widely and are associated with patients' risk of postcolonoscopy colorectal cancers (PCCRCs). However, few scalable physician-directed interventions demonstrably both improve ADR and reduce PCCRC risk. METHODS: Among patients undergoing colonoscopy, we evaluated the influence of a scalable online training on individual-level ADRs and PCCRC risk. The intervention was a 30-minute, interactive, online training, developed using behavior change theory, to address factors that potentially impede detection of adenomas. Analyses included interrupted time series analyses for pretraining versus posttraining individual-physician ADR changes (adjusted for temporal trends) and Cox regression for associations between ADR changes and patients' PCCRC risk. RESULTS: Across 21 endoscopy centers and all 86 eligible endoscopists, ADRs increased immediately by an absolute 3.13% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.31-4.94) in the 3-month quarter after training compared with .58% per quarter (95% CI, .40-.77) and 0.33% per quarter (95% CI, .16-.49) in the 3-year pretraining and posttraining periods, respectively. Posttraining ADR increases were higher among endoscopists with pretraining ADRs below the median. Among 146,786 posttraining colonoscopies (all indications), each 1% absolute increase in screening ADR posttraining was associated with a 4% decrease in their patients' PCCRC risk (hazard ratio, .96; 95% CI, .93-.99). An ADR increase of ≥10% versus <1% was associated with a 55% reduced risk of PCCRC (hazard ratio, .45; 95% CI, .24-.82). CONCLUSIONS: A scalable, online behavior change training intervention focused on modifiable factors was associated with significant and sustained improvements in ADR, particularly among endoscopists with lower ADRs. These ADR changes were associated with substantial reductions in their patients' risk of PCCRC.

Association of Physician Adenoma Detection Rates With Postcolonoscopy Colorectal Cancer.

Importance: Although colonoscopy is frequently performed in the United States, there is limited evidence to support threshold values for physician adenoma detection rate as a quality metric. Objective: To evaluate the association between physician adenoma detection rate values and risks of postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer and related deaths. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study in 3 large integrated health care systems (Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Kaiser Permanente Southern California, and Kaiser Permanente Washington) with 43 endoscopy centers, 383 eligible physicians, and 735 396 patients aged 50 to 75 years who received a colonoscopy that did not detect cancer (negative colonoscopy) between January 2011 and June 2017, with patient follow-up through December 2017. Exposures: The adenoma detection rate of each patient's physician based on screening examinations in the calendar year prior to the patient's negative colonoscopy. Adenoma detection rate was defined as a continuous variable in statistical analyses and was also dichotomized as at or above vs below the median for descriptive analyses. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome (postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer) was tumor registry-verified colorectal adenocarcinoma diagnosed at least 6 months after any negative colonoscopy (all indications). The secondary outcomes included death from postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer. Results: Among 735 396 patients who had 852 624 negative colonoscopies, 440 352 (51.6%) were performed on female patients, median patient age was 61.4 years (IQR, 55.5-67.2 years), median follow-up per patient was 3.25 years (IQR, 1.56-5.01 years), and there were 619 postcolonoscopy colorectal cancers and 36 related deaths during more than 2.4 million person-years of follow-up. The patients of physicians with higher adenoma detection rates had significantly lower risks for postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer (hazard ratio [HR], 0.97 per 1% absolute adenoma detection rate increase [95% CI, 0.96-0.98]) and death from postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer (HR, 0.95 per 1% absolute adenoma detection rate increase [95% CI, 0.92-0.99]) across a broad range of adenoma detection rate values, with no interaction by sex (P value for interaction = .18). Compared with adenoma detection rates below the median of 28.3%, detection rates at or above the median were significantly associated with a lower risk of postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer (1.79 vs 3.10 cases per 10 000 person-years; absolute difference in 7-year risk, -12.2 per 10 000 negative colonoscopies [95% CI, -10.3 to -13.4]; HR, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.52-0.73]) and related deaths (0.05 vs 0.22 cases per 10 000 person-years; absolute difference in 7-year risk, -1.2 per 10 000 negative colonoscopies [95%, CI, -0.80 to -1.69]; HR, 0.26 [95% CI, 0.11-0.65]). Conclusions and Relevance: Within 3 large community-based settings, colonoscopies by physicians with higher adenoma detection rates were significantly associated with lower risks of postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer across a broad range of adenoma detection rate values. These findings may help inform recommended targets for colonoscopy quality measures.

Natural Language Processing for the Accurate Identification of Colorectal Cancer Mismatch Repair Status in Lynch Syndrome Screening.

Lynch syndrome (LS) is the most common type of hereditary colorectal cancer (CRC) syndrome caused by pathogenic variants in mismatch repair (MMR) genes.1 Current multisociety guidelines recommend screening all CRC tumors for LS.2,3 The most widely adopted screening method is MMR immunohistochemistry (IHC) followed by germline analysis if indicated.2,3 However, the text-based nature of pathology and IHC reports used for LS screening results impedes creation of an efficient tracking system for identifying affected patients and screening outcomes.4 In this study, we developed and validated a natural language processing (NLP) tool for extracting MMR IHC results in LS screening in a large, diverse, multicenter, community-based setting.5.

Long-term Risk of Colorectal Cancer and Related Death After Adenoma Removal in a Large, Community-based Population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The long-term risks of colorectal cancer (CRC) and CRC-related death following adenoma removal are uncertain. Data are needed to inform evidence-based surveillance guidelines, which vary in follow-up recommendations for some polyp types. Using data from a large, community-based integrated health care setting, we examined the risks of CRC and related death by baseline colonoscopy adenoma findings. METHODS: Participants at 21 medical centers underwent baseline colonoscopies from 2004 through 2010; findings were categorized as no-adenoma, low-risk adenoma, or high-risk adenoma. Participants were followed until the earliest of CRC diagnosis, death, health plan disenrollment, or December 31, 2017. Risks of CRC and related deaths among the high- and low-risk adenoma groups were compared with the no-adenoma group using Cox regression adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: Among 186,046 patients, 64,422 met eligibility criteria (54.3% female; mean age, 61.6 ± 7.1 years; median follow-up time, 8.1 years from the baseline colonoscopy). Compared with the no-adenoma group (45,881 patients), the high-risk adenoma group (7563 patients) had a higher risk of CRC (hazard ratio [HR] 2.61; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.87-3.63) and related death (HR 3.94; 95% CI 1.90-6.56), whereas the low-risk adenoma group (10,978 patients) did not have a significant increase in risk of CRC (HR 1.29; 95% CI 0.89-1.88) or related death (HR 0.65; 95% CI 0.19-2.18). CONCLUSIONS: With up to 14 years of follow-up, high-risk adenomas were associated with an increased risk of CRC and related death, supporting early colonoscopy surveillance. Low-risk adenomas were not associated with a significantly increased risk of CRC or related deaths. These results can inform current surveillance guidelines for high- and low-risk adenomas.

Validation of an Algorithm to Identify Patients at Risk for Colorectal Cancer Based on Laboratory Test and Demographic Data in Diverse, Community-Based Population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Approximately 30%-40% of screening-eligible adults in the United States are not up to date with colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. We aimed to validate a predictive score, generated by a machine learning algorithm with common laboratory test data, to identify patients at high risk for CRC in a large, community-based, ethnically diverse cohort. METHODS: We performed a nested case-control study using data from members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California (1996-2015). Cases were cohort members who received a complete blood cell count at ages 50-75 y, did not have a prior or current diagnosis of CRC diagnosis at the time of the blood cell count, and were subsequently diagnosed with CRC. We used data from the cohort to validate the ability of an algorithm that uses laboratory and demographic information to identify patients at increased risk for CRC. Test performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and odds ratios (OR) with 95% CI values to compare high (defined as 97% specificity or more) vs low scores. RESULTS: A high score from the algorithm identified patients with a CRC diagnosis within the next 6 months with 35.4% sensitivity (95% CI, 33.8-36.7) and an AUROC of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.77-0.78). Patients with a high score had an increased risk of diagnosis with early-stage CRC (OR, 13.1; 95% CI, 11.8-14.3) and advanced stage CRC (OR, 24.8; 95% CI, 22.4-27.3) within the next 6 months. In patients with high scores, the ORs for proximal and distal cancers were 34.7 (95% CI, 31.5-37.7) and 12.1 (95% CI, 10.1-13.9), respectively. The algorithm's accuracy decreased with the time interval between blood test result and CRC diagnosis; performance did not differ by sex or race. CONCLUSIONS: We validated a predictive model that uses complete blood cell count and demographic data to identify patients at high risk of CRC. The algorithm identified 3% of the population who require an investigation and identified 35% of patients who received a diagnosis of CRC within the next 6 months.

Comparison of Universal Versus Age-Restricted Screening of Colorectal Tumors for Lynch Syndrome Using Mismatch Repair Immunohistochemistry: A Cohort Study.

Background: Guidelines recommend screening all patients with newly diagnosed colorectal cancer (CRC) for Lynch syndrome (LS). However, the efficiency of universal LS screening in elderly populations has not been well studied. Objective: To compare the performance of age-restricted and universal LS screening using reflex mismatch repair (MMR) immunohistochemistry (IHC) of CRC tumors. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: A large, diverse, community-based health care system. Participants: 3891 persons with newly diagnosed CRC who had LS screening between 2011 and 2016. Measurements: Diagnostic yield of different LS screening strategies. Results: Sixty-three LS cases (diagnostic yield, 1.62%) were identified by universal screening, with only 5 (7.9%) detected after age 70 years and 1 (1.6%) detected after age 80 years. When all patients with CRC who had universal screening were used as the denominator, 58 LS cases (diagnostic yield, 1.49% [95% CI, 1.13% to 1.92%]) were identified in patients with CRC diagnosed at or before age 70 years, 60 LS cases (diagnostic yield, 1.54% [CI, 1.18% to 1.98%]) were identified in those with CRC diagnosed at or before age 75 years, and 62 LS cases (diagnostic yield, 1.59% [CI, 1.22% to 2.04%]) were identified in those with CRC diagnosed at or before age 80 years. Using 75 years as the upper age limit for screening missed 3 of 63 (4.8%) LS cases but resulted in 1053 (27.1%) fewer cases requiring tumor MMR IHC. Using 80 years as the upper age limit missed 1 of 63 (1.6%) LS cases and resulted in 668 (17.2%) fewer cases requiring tumor MMR IHC. Limitation: Persons who were eligible for but did not complete germline analysis were excluded from calculations of performance characteristics. Conclusion: The incremental diagnostic yield decreased substantially after age 70 to 75 years. Stopping reflex CRC screening for LS after age 80 years may be reasonable because of very low efficiency, particularly in resource-limited settings, but this merits further investigation. Studies evaluating the effect of diagnosing LS in elderly persons on their family members are needed. Primary Funding Source: Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research.

Effects of Organized Colorectal Cancer Screening on Cancer Incidence and Mortality in a Large Community-Based Population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Little information is available on the effectiveness of organized colorectal cancer (CRC) screening on screening uptake, incidence, and mortality in community-based populations. METHODS: We contrasted screening rates, age-adjusted annual CRC incidence, and incidence-based mortality rates before (baseline year 2000) and after (through 2015) implementation of organized screening outreach, from 2007 through 2008 (primarily annual fecal immunochemical testing and colonoscopy), in a large community-based population. Among screening-eligible individuals 51-75 years old, we calculated annual up-to-date status for cancer screening (by fecal test, sigmoidoscopy, or colonoscopy), CRC incidence, cancer stage distributions, and incidence-based mortality. RESULTS: Initiation of organized CRC screening significantly increased the up-to-date status of screening, from 38.9% in 2000 to 82.7% in 2015 (P < .01). Higher rates of screening were associated with a 25.5% reduction in annual CRC incidence between 2000 and 2015, from 95.8 to 71.4 cases/100,000 (P < .01), and a 52.4% reduction in cancer mortality, from 30.9 to 14.7 deaths/100,000 (P < .01). Increased screening was initially associated with increased CRC incidence, due largely to greater detection of early-stage cancers, followed by decreases in cancer incidence. Advanced-stage CRC incidence rates decreased 36.2%, from 45.9 to 29.3 cases/100,000 (P < .01), and early-stage CRC incidence rates decreased 14.5%, from 48.2 to 41.2 cases/100,000 (P < .04). CONCLUSIONS: Implementing an organized CRC screening program in a large community-based population rapidly increased screening participation to the ≥80% target set by national organizations. Screening rates were sustainable and associated with substantial decreases in CRC incidence and mortality within short time intervals, consistent with early detection and cancer prevention.

Risk factors for medication non-adherence among atrial fibrillation patients.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) patients are routinely prescribed medications to prevent and treat complications, including those from common co-occurring comorbidities. However, adherence to such medications may be suboptimal. Therefore, we sought to identify risk factors for general medication non-adherence in a population of patients with atrial fibrillation. METHODS: Data were collected from a large, ethnically-diverse cohort of Kaiser Permanente Northern and Southern California adult members with incident diagnosed AF between January 1, 2006 and June 30, 2009. Self-reported questionnaires were completed between May 1, 2010 and September 30, 2010, assessing patient socio-demographics, health behaviors, health status, medical history and medication adherence. Medication adherence was assessed using a previously validated 3-item questionnaire. Medication non-adherence was defined as either taking medication(s) as the doctor prescribed 75% of the time or less, or forgetting or choosing to skip one or more medication(s) once per week or more. Electronic health records were used to obtain additional data on medical history. Multivariable logistic regression analyses examined the associations between patient characteristics and self-reported general medication adherence among patients with complete questionnaire data. RESULTS: Among 12,159 patients with complete questionnaire data, 6.3% (n = 771) reported medication non-adherence. Minority race/ethnicity versus non-Hispanic white, not married/with partner versus married/with partner, physical inactivity versus physically active, alcohol use versus no alcohol use, any days of self-reported poor physical health, mental health and/or sleep quality in the past 30 days versus 0 days, memory decline versus no memory decline, inadequate versus adequate health literacy, low-dose aspirin use versus no low-dose aspirin use, and diabetes mellitus were associated with higher adjusted odds of non-adherence, whereas, ages 65-84 years versus < 65 years of age, a Charlson Comorbidity Index score ≥ 3 versus 0, and hypertension were associated with lower adjusted odds of non-adherence. CONCLUSIONS: Several potentially preventable and/or modifiable risk factors related to medication non-adherence and a few non-modifiable risk factors were identified. These risk factors should be considered when assessing medication adherence among patients diagnosed with AF.

Rates and Predictors of Vaccinations Among Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients Receiving Anti-Tumor Necrosis Factor Agents.

BACKGROUND: As an important quality measure, the rates of recommended immunizations among immunocompromised inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients in community practice have not been well studied. AIMS: This study sought to investigate the rates and predictors of recommended immunizations and screening tests among IBD patients receiving anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy in a large integrated healthcare organization. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 1401 IBD patients on anti-TNF therapy between 2010 and 2013 within the Kaiser Permanente Northern California healthcare system. The rates of vaccinations and screening tests were quantified, and the associated predictors were investigated. RESULTS: Vaccination rates for influenza and pneumococcus were 43.5 and 24.1%, respectively. The majority of patients (73.7%) received hepatitis B screening and/or vaccine. Patients receiving infliximab had higher rates of pneumococcal vaccine (P = 0.002), hepatitis B screening (P < 0.001), and tuberculin skin test (P < 0.001) compared with patients receiving adalimumab. Older patient age (≥50 years) was associated with higher likelihood of having HBsAg test (odds ratio [OR] 1.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-2.0, P = 0.002), influenza vaccine (OR 2.6 [2.1-3.4], P < 0.001), and pneumococcal vaccine (OR 4.0 [3.0-5.3], P < 0.001). In contrast, older providers (≥50 years) were associated with significantly lower likelihood of their patients' having hepatitis A and B screening tests, and pneumococcal vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: The rates of immunizations for IBD patients receiving anti-TNF treatment were lower than recommended. Structured reminders for vaccinations and education for both patients and providers (older physicians in particular) may prove beneficial in improving immunization rates among immunocompromised IBD patients.

Minilaparotomy Versus Laparoscopic Myomectomy After Cessation of Power Morcellation: Rate of Wound Complications.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: After the US Food and Drug Administration statement warning against electronic morcellation devices, gynecologic surgeons are performing laparoscopic and robotic myomectomies with minilaparotomy incisions for tissue morcellation and removal. No data exist that focus on the superficial wound complications as a result of these larger incisions. The objective of this study is to compare the rate of wound complications for myomectomy via minilaparotomy versus laparoscopic or robotic myomectomy. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study (Canadian Task Force classification II-2). SETTING: Kaiser Permanente Northern California, a large integrated healthcare delivery system. PATIENTS: Women > 18 years of age who underwent a myomectomy from either complete laparoscopic or robotic approach (LR) were compared with minilaparotomy myomectomy (MM), comprising complete minilaparotomy (ML) and laparoscopic or robotic assisted by a minilaparotomy for morcellation purposes only (LRM) from January 2011 through December 2014. INTERVENTION: Myomectomy via LR, complete ML, and LRM. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Medical records were reviewed for outcomes of interest, including superficial wound complications and surgical and demographic data. After exclusion criteria were met, 405 cases were included in the study; 270 cases were classified as MM, which included ML (n = 224), or LRM (n = 46). One hundred thirty-five cases were classified as LR. Parametric and nonparametric analyses were used to compare the 2 groups. There was no significant difference between the groups insofar as patient morbidity, including the primary outcome of wound complications and other postoperative complications; emergency visits; or readmissions. There were 2 (1.5%) wound complications in the LR group and 7 (2.6%) in the MM group (p = .72). Similarly, there were no significant differences in the subcategories of wound complications, including cellulitis, seroma, hematoma, skin separation, wound infection, or postprocedure wound complication. The distribution of estimated blood loss was significantly different between LR and MM groups with an interquartile range of 50 to 150 mL in the LR group versus 50 to 300 mL in the MM group (p < .01). The MM group experienced a shorter procedure time with a median procedure time of 125 minutes compared with 169.5 minutes in LR surgeries (p < .01). The LR group demonstrated a significantly shorter median length of hospital stay (LR 5.0 hours vs MM 23 hours; p < .01). CONCLUSION: Compared with MM, LR is associated with a shorter length of hospital stay and longer operating time but no reduction in wound complication or other patient morbidity.

Risk of cancer in Asian Americans: a Kaiser Permanente cohort study.

PURPOSE: To supplement published cohort data about incident cancer in Asian Americans (Asians) including risk of specific Asian ethnic groups. METHODS: A cohort study in 124,193 persons (13,344 Asians) with baseline examination data in 1978-1985 used Cox proportional hazards models with seven covariates to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Through 2012 cancer was diagnosed in 18,687 persons including 1,522 Asians. Compared to Whites, the HR (CIs) for any cancer in Asians was 0.8 (0.7-0.9, p < 0.001). Lower Asian risk was stronger for men (HR = 0.7, p < 0.001) than for women (HR = 0.9, p = 0.003). Lower Asian vs. White risks with p < 0.05 were found for cancers of the upper airway digestive area, hematologic malignancies, melanoma, and cancers of the prostate, bladder, and brain. Melanoma contributed substantially to lower Asian risk, especially in women. HRs for specific Asian groups versus Whites follow: Chinese = 0.9 (p < 0.001), Japanese = 0.9 (p = 0.01), Filipinos = 0.8 (p < 0.001), South Asians = 0.5 (p < 0.001), and Other Asians = 0.7 (p = 0.006). Both South Asian men and women had lower risk than Whites, and South Asians had lower risk than any other racial/ethnic group. CONCLUSIONS: Asians had lower cancer risk than Whites, due to lower risk of several cancer types. Each Asian ethnic group had lower risk than Whites with South Asians at the lowest risk.

CKD and the risk of incident cancer.

Previous studies report a higher risk of cancer in patients with ESRD, but the impact of less severe CKD on risk of cancer is uncertain. Our objective was to evaluate the association between level of kidney function and subsequent cancer risk. We performed a retrospective cohort study of 1,190,538 adults who were receiving care within a health care delivery system, had a measurement of kidney function obtained between 2000 and 2008, and had no prior cancer. We examined the association between level of eGFR and the risk of incident cancer; the primary outcome was renal cancer, and secondary outcomes were any cancer and specific cancers (urothelial, prostate, breast, lung, and colorectal). During 6,000,420 person-years of follow-up, we identified 76,809 incident cancers in 72,875 subjects. After adjustment for time-updated confounders, lower eGFR (in milliliters per minute per 1.73 m(2)) was associated with an increased risk of renal cancer (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.39; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.22 to 1.58 for eGFR=45-59; HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.51 to 2.17 for eGFR=30-44; HR, 2.28; 95% CI, 1.78 to 2.92 for eGFR<30). We also observed an increased risk of urothelial cancer at eGFR<30 but no significant associations between eGFR and prostate, breast, lung, colorectal, or any cancer overall. In conclusion, reduced eGFR is associated with an independently higher risk of renal and urothelial cancer but not other cancer types.

Moderate alcohol intake and cancer: the role of underreporting.

PURPOSE: There is compelling evidence that heavy alcohol drinking is related to increased risk of several cancer types, but the relationship of light-moderate drinking is less clear. We explored the role of inferred underreporting among light-moderate drinkers on the association between alcohol intake and cancer risk. METHODS: In a cohort of 127,176 persons, we studied risk of any cancer, a composite of five alcohol-associated cancer types, and female breast cancer. Alcohol intake was reported at baseline health examinations, and 14,880 persons were subsequently diagnosed with cancer. Cox proportional hazard models were controlled for seven covariates. Based on other computer-stored information about alcohol habits, we stratified subjects into 18.4 % (23,363) suspected of underreporting, 46.5 % (59,173) not suspected of underreporting, and 35.1 % (44,640) of unsure underreporting status. RESULTS: Persons reporting light-moderate drinking had increased cancer risk in this cohort. For example, the hazard ratios (95 % confidence intervals) for risk of any cancer were 1.10 (1.04-1.17) at <1 drink per day and 1.15 (1.08-1.23) at 1-2 drinks per day. Increased risk of cancer was concentrated in the stratum suspected of underreporting. For example, among persons reporting 1-2 drinks per day risk of any cancer was 1.33 (1.21-1.45) among those suspected of underreporting, 0.98 (0.87-1.09) among those not suspected, and 1.20 (1.10-1.31) among those of unsure status. These disparities were similar for the alcohol-related composite and for breast cancer. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the apparent increased risk of cancer among light-moderate drinkers may be substantially due to underreporting of intake.

Population-Level Identification of Patients With Lynch Syndrome for Clinical Care, Quality Improvement, and Research.

PURPOSE: Identification of those at risk of hereditary cancer syndromes using electronic health record (EHR) data sources is important for clinical care, quality improvement, and research. We describe diagnostic processes, previously seldom reported, for a common hereditary cancer syndrome, Lynch syndrome (LS), using EHR data within a community-based, multicenter, demographically diverse health system. METHODS: Within a retrospective cohort enrolled between 2015 and 2020 at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, we assessed electronic diagnostic domains for LS including (1) family history of LS-associated cancer; (2) personal history of LS-associated cancer; (3) LS screening via mismatch repair deficiency (MMRD) testing of newly diagnosed malignancy; (4) germline genetic test results; and (5) clinician-entered diagnostic codes for LS. We calculated proportions and overlap for each diagnostic domain descriptively. RESULTS: Among 5.8 million individuals, (1) 28,492 (0.49%) had a family history of LS-associated cancer of whom 3,635 (13%) underwent genetic testing; (2) 100,046 (1.7%) had a personal history of a LS-associated cancer; and (3) 8,711 (0.1%) were diagnosed with colorectal cancer of whom 7,533 (86%) underwent MMRD screening and of the positive screens (486), 130 (27%) underwent germline testing. One thousand seven hundred and fifty-seven (0.03%) were diagnosed with endometrial cancer of whom 1,613 (92%) underwent MMRD screening and of the 195 who screened positive, 55 (28%) underwent genetic testing. (4) 30,790 (0.05%) had LS germline genetic testing with 707 (0.01%) testing positive; and (5) 1,273 (0.02%) had a clinician-entered diagnosis of LS. CONCLUSION: It is feasible to electronically characterize the diagnostic processes of LS. No single data source comprehensively identifies all LS carriers. There is underutilization of LS genetic testing for those eligible and underdiagnosis of LS. Our work informs similar efforts in other settings for hereditary cancer syndromes.

Development and External Validation of a Prediction Model for Colorectal Cancer Among Patients Awaiting Surveillance Colonoscopy Following Polypectomy.

Background and Aims: Demand for surveillance colonoscopy can sometimes exceed capacity, such as during and following the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, yet no tools exist to prioritize the patients most likely to be diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC) among those awaiting surveillance colonoscopy. We developed a multivariable prediction model for CRC at surveillance comparing performance to a model that assigned patients as low or high risk based solely on polyp characteristics (guideline-based model). Methods: Logistic regression was used for model development among patients receiving surveillance colonoscopy in 2014-2019. Candidate predictors included index colonoscopy indication, findings, and endoscopist adenoma detection rate, and patient and clinical characteristics at surveillance. Patients were randomly divided into model development (n = 36,994) and internal validation cohorts (n = 15,854). External validation was performed on 30,015 patients receiving surveillance colonoscopy in 2020-2022, and the multivariable model was then updated and retested. Results: One hundred fourteen, 43, and 71 CRCs were detected at surveillance in the 3 cohorts, respectively. Polyp size ≥10 mm, adenoma detection rate <32.5% or missing, patient age, and ever smoked tobacco were significant CRC predictors; this multivariable model outperformed the guideline-based model (internal validation cohort area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve: 0.73, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.66-0.81 vs 0.52, 95% CI: 0.45-0.60). Performance declined at external validation but recovered with model updating (operating characteristic curve: 0.72 95% CI: 0.66-0.77). Conclusion: When surveillance colonoscopy demand exceeds capacity, a prediction model featuring common clinical predictors may help prioritize patients at highest risk for CRC among those awaiting surveillance. Also, regular model updates can address model performance drift.

Surveillance Colonoscopy Findings in Older Adults With a History of Colorectal Adenomas.

Importance: Postpolypectomy surveillance is a common colonoscopy indication in older adults; however, guidelines provide little direction on when to stop surveillance in this population. Objective: To estimate surveillance colonoscopy yields in older adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cross-sectional study included individuals 70 to 85 years of age who received surveillance colonoscopy at a large, community-based US health care system between January 1, 2017, and December 31, 2019; had an adenoma detected 12 or more months previously; and had at least 1 year of health plan enrollment before surveillance. Individuals were excluded due to prior colorectal cancer (CRC), hereditary CRC syndrome, inflammatory bowel disease, or prior colectomy or if the surveillance colonoscopy had an inadequate bowel preparation or was incomplete. Data were analyzed from September 1, 2022, to February 22, 2024. Exposures: Age (70-74, 75-79, or 80-85 years) at surveillance colonoscopy and prior adenoma finding (ie, advanced adenoma vs nonadvanced adenoma). Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were yields of CRC, advanced adenoma, and advanced neoplasia overall (all ages) by age group and by both age group and prior adenoma finding. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with advanced neoplasia detection at surveillance. Results: Of 9740 surveillance colonoscopies among 9601 patients, 5895 (60.5%) were in men, and 5738 (58.9%), 3225 (33.1%), and 777 (8.0%) were performed in those aged 70-74, 75-79, and 80-85 years, respectively. Overall, CRC yields were found in 28 procedures (0.3%), advanced adenoma in 1141 (11.7%), and advanced neoplasia in 1169 (12.0%); yields did not differ significantly across age groups. Overall, CRC yields were higher for colonoscopies among patients with a prior advanced adenoma vs nonadvanced adenoma (12 of 2305 [0.5%] vs 16 of 7435 [0.2%]; P = .02), and the same was observed for advanced neoplasia (380 of 2305 [16.5%] vs 789 of 7435 [10.6%]; P < .001). Factors associated with advanced neoplasia at surveillance were prior advanced adenoma (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.65; 95% CI, 1.44-1.88), body mass index of 30 or greater vs less than 25 (AOR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.03-1.44), and having ever smoked tobacco (AOR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.01-1.30). Asian or Pacific Islander race was inversely associated with advanced neoplasia (AOR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.67-0.99). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of surveillance colonoscopy yield in older adults, CRC detection was rare regardless of prior adenoma finding, whereas the advanced neoplasia yield was 12.0% overall. Yields were higher among those with a prior advanced adenoma than among those with prior nonadvanced adenoma and did not increase significantly with age. These findings can help inform whether to continue surveillance colonoscopy in older adults.