Global sensitivity analysis to enhance the transparency and rigour of energy system optimisation modelling.

Background: Energy system optimisation models (ESOMs) are commonly used to support long-term planning at national, regional, or continental scales. The importance of recognising uncertainty in energy system modelling is regularly commented on but there is little practical guidance on how to best incorporate existing techniques, such as global sensitivity analysis, despite some good applications in the literature. Methods: In this paper, we provide comprehensive guidelines for conducting a global sensitivity analysis of an ESOM, aiming to remove barriers to adopting this approach. With a pedagogical intent, we begin by exploring why you should conduct a global sensitivity analysis. We then describe how to implement a global sensitivity analysis using the Morris method in an ESOM using a sequence of simple illustrative models built using the Open Source energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) framework, followed by a realistic example. Results: Results show that the global sensitivity analysis identifies influential parameters that drive results in the simple and realistic models, and identifies uninfluential parameters which can be ignored or fixed. We show that global sensitivity analysis can be applied to ESOMs with relative ease using freely available open-source tools. The results replicate the findings of best-practice studies from the field demonstrating the importance of including all parameters in the analysis and avoiding a narrow focus on particular parameters such as technology costs. Conclusions: The results highlight the benefits of performing a global sensitivity analysis for the design of energy system optimisation scenarios. We discuss how the results can be interpreted and used to enhance the transparency and rigour of energy system modelling studies.

VTK-m: Accelerating the Visualization Toolkit for Massively Threaded Architectures.

One of the most critical challenges for high-performance computing (HPC) scientific visualization is execution on massively threaded processors. Of the many fundamental changes we are seeing in HPC systems, one of the most profound is a reliance on new processor types optimized for execution bandwidth over latency hiding. Our current production scientific visualization software is not designed for these new types of architectures. To address this issue, the VTK-m framework serves as a container for algorithms, provides flexible data representation, and simplifies the design of visualization algorithms on new and future computer architecture.