Chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis and syphilis: global prevalence and incidence estimates, 2016.

OBJECTIVE: To generate estimates of the global prevalence and incidence of urogenital infection with chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis and syphilis in women and men, aged 15-49 years, in 2016. METHODS: For chlamydia, gonorrhoea and trichomoniasis, we systematically searched for studies conducted between 2009 and 2016 reporting prevalence. We also consulted regional experts. To generate estimates, we used Bayesian meta-analysis. For syphilis, we aggregated the national estimates generated by using Spectrum-STI. FINDINGS: For chlamydia, gonorrhoea and/or trichomoniasis, 130 studies were eligible. For syphilis, the Spectrum-STI database contained 978 data points for the same period. The 2016 global prevalence estimates in women were: chlamydia 3.8% (95% uncertainty interval, UI: 3.3-4.5); gonorrhoea 0.9% (95% UI: 0.7-1.1); trichomoniasis 5.3% (95% UI:4.0-7.2); and syphilis 0.5% (95% UI: 0.4-0.6). In men prevalence estimates were: chlamydia 2.7% (95% UI: 1.9-3.7); gonorrhoea 0.7% (95% UI: 0.5-1.1); trichomoniasis 0.6% (95% UI: 0.4-0.9); and syphilis 0.5% (95% UI: 0.4-0.6). Total estimated incident cases were 376.4 million: 127.2 million (95% UI: 95.1-165.9 million) chlamydia cases; 86.9 million (95% UI: 58.6-123.4 million) gonorrhoea cases; 156.0 million (95% UI: 103.4-231.2 million) trichomoniasis cases; and 6.3 million (95% UI: 5.5-7.1 million) syphilis cases. CONCLUSION: Global estimates of prevalence and incidence of these four curable sexually transmitted infections remain high. The study highlights the need to expand data collection efforts at country level and provides an initial baseline for monitoring progress of the World Health Organization global health sector strategy on sexually transmitted infections 2016-2021.

Mortality and cancer incidence among female Australian firefighters.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the mortality and cancer incidence of female firefighters, a group where there are limited published findings. METHODS: Participating fire agencies supplied records of individual firefighters including the number and type of incidents attended. The cohort was linked to the Australian National Death Index and Australian Cancer Database. Standardised mortality ratios and standardised cancer incidence ratios were calculated separately for paid and volunteer firefighters. Volunteer firefighters were grouped into tertiles by the duration of service and by a number of incidents attended and relative mortality ratios and relative incidence ratios calculated. RESULTS: For volunteer firefighters (n=37 962), the overall risk of mortality and risk from all major causes of death were reduced when compared with the general population whether or not they had ever attended incidents. Volunteer firefighters had a similar cancer incidence when compared with the general population for most major cancer categories. Female volunteer firefighters have usually attended few fires. Of those who had turned out to incidents, only one-third had attended more than 12 fires about half the number for male volunteers. Mortality and cancer incidence for paid female firefighters (n=1682) were similar to the general population but the numbers were small and so power was limited. CONCLUSIONS: Female volunteer firefighters have a cancer incidence similar to the general population but a reduced risk of mortality which is likely to be a result of a 'healthy volunteer' effect.Most of the paid female firefighters were relatively recent recruits and it will be important to monitor the health of this group as more women are recruited to front-line firefighting roles.

Mortality and cancer incidence among male volunteer Australian firefighters.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to investigate mortality and cancer incidence of Australian male volunteer firefighters and of subgroups of firefighters by duration of service, era of first service and the number and type of incidents attended. METHODS: Participating fire agencies supplied records of individual volunteer firefighters, including incidents attended. The cohort was linked to the Australian National Death Index and Australian Cancer Database. standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) for cancer were calculated. Firefighters were grouped into tertiles by duration of service and by number of incidents attended and relative mortality ratios and relative incidence ratios calculated. RESULTS: Compared with the general population, there were significant decreases in overall cancer incidence and in most major cancer categories. Prostate cancer incidence was increased compared with the general population, but this was not related to the number of incidents attended. Kidney cancer was associated with increased attendance at fires, particularly structural fires.The overall risk of mortality was significantly decreased, and all major causes of death were significantly reduced for volunteer firefighters. There was evidence of an increased mortality from ischaemic heart disease, with increased attendance at fires. CONCLUSION: Volunteer firefighters have a reduced risk of mortality and cancer incidence compared with the general population, which is likely to be a result of a 'healthy-volunteer' effect and, perhaps, lower smoking rates.

Identifying who will benefit from non-invasive ventilation in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis/motor neurone disease in a clinical cohort.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory failure is associated with significant morbidity and is the predominant cause of death in motor neurone disease/amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (MND/ALS). This study aimed to determine the effect of non-invasive ventilatory (NIV) support on survival and pulmonary function decline across MND/ALS phenotypes. METHODS: Cohort recruited via a specialist, multidisciplinary clinic. Patients were categorised into four clinical phenotypes (ALS, flail arm, flail leg and primary lateral sclerosis) according to site of presenting symptom and the pattern of upper versus lower motor neurone involvement. NIV was initiated according to current consensus practice guidelines. RESULTS: Between 1991 and 2011, 1198 patients diagnosed with ALS/MND were registered. 929 patients (77.5%) fulfilled the selection criteria and their data were analysed. Median tracheostomy free survival from symptom onset was 28 months in NIV-treated patients compared to 15 months in untreated (Univariate Cox regression HR=0.61 (0.51 to 0.73), p<0.001). The positive survival effect of NIV persisted when the model was adjusted for age, gender, riluzole and percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy use (HR=0.72 (0.60 to 0.88, p=0.001). In contrast with the only randomised controlled trial, NIV statistically significantly increased survival by 19 months in those with ALS-bulbar onset (Univariate HR=0.50 (0.36 to 0.70), multivariate HR=0.59 (0.41 to 0.83)). These data confirm that NIV improves survival in MND/ALS. The overall magnitude of benefit is 13 months and was largest in those with ALS-bulbar disease. Future research should explore the optimal timing of NIV initiation within phenotypes in order to optimise respiratory function, quality of life and survival.

Association of diabetes mellitus and pancreatic adenocarcinoma: a meta-analysis of 88 studies.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is often diagnosed at an advanced, incurable stage. Previous epidemiological data suggests that diabetes mellitus (DM) is a risk factor for PDAC, which may be important in early detection. However, the strength of this association needs to be determined, taking into account a number of recently published studies. METHODS: A systematic review of the association between DM and PDAC was undertaken by searching electronic databases and journal references from 1973 to 2013. Summary estimates were obtained separately for case-control and cohort studies by means of a 'random effects' approach. Data pertaining to the DM was recorded and plotted at both an individual and study level, with the relative risks (RR) pooled separately to determine the relationship of DM duration and PDAC. RESULTS: A total of 88 independent studies, including 50 cohort and 39 case-control studies were examined. The overall summary-combined RR was 1.97 (95 % CI 1.78-2.18) with marked heterogeneity that could not be clearly attributed to any subgroup analyses. The risk of PDAC was greatest early after the diagnosis of DM but remained elevated long after the diagnosis. The individual-level RR ranged from 6.69 at less than 1 year to 1.36 at 10 years. CONCLUSION: The results demonstrate a strong association between PDAC and recently diagnosed DM, which may be attributed to a paraneoplastic effect. However, the presence of diabetes also remains a modest risk factor for the development of PDAC long-term. Selective screening of patients with new-onset DM for PDAC needs to be considered.

Risk of death or hospital admission among community-dwelling older adults living with dementia in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Older people living with dementia prefer to stay at home to receive support. But they are at high risk of death and/or hospital admissions. This study primarily aimed to determine risk factors for time to death or hospital admission (combined) in a sample of community-dwelling older people living with dementia in Australia. As a secondary study purpose, risk factors for time to death were also examined. METHODS: This study used the data of a previous project which had been implemented during September 2007 and February 2009. The original project had recruited 354 eligible clients (aged 70 and over, and living with dementia) for Extended Aged Care At home Dementia program services during September 2007 and 2008. Client information and carer stress had been collected from their case managers through a baseline survey and three-monthly follow-up surveys (up to four in total). The principal data collection tools included Global Deterioration Scale, Modified Barthel Index, Instrumental-Dependency OARS, Adapted Cohen-Mansfield Agitation Inventory, as well as measures of clients' socio-demographic characteristics, service use and diseases diagnoses. The sample of our study included 284 clients with at least one follow-up survey. The outcome variable was death or hospital admission, and death during six, nine and 16-month study periods. Stepwise backwards multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis was employed, and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis using censored data was displayed. RESULTS: Having previous hospital admissions was a consistent risk factor for time to death or hospital admission (six-month: HR = 3.12; nine-month: HR = 2.80; 16-month: HR = 2.93) and for time to death (six-month: HR = 2.27; 16-month: HR = 2.12) over time. Previously worse cognitive status was a consistent risk factor over time (six- and nine-month: HR = 0.58; 16-month: HR = 0.65), but no previous use of community care was only a short-term risk factor (six-month: HR = 0.42) for time to death or hospital admission. CONCLUSIONS: Previous hospital admissions and previously worse cognitive status are target intervention areas for reducing dementia clients' risk of time to death or hospital admission, and/or death. Having previous use of community care as a short-term protective factor for dementia clients' time to death or hospital admission is noteworthy.

The mortality burden attributable to wood heater smoke particulate matter (PM2.5) in Australia.

Air pollution is the leading environmental risk factor for mortality worldwide. In Australia, residential wood heating is the single largest source of pollution in many regions of the country. Estimates around the world and in some limited locations across Australia have shown that the health burden attributable to wood heating PM2.5 is considerable, and that there is great potential to reduce this burden. Here, we aimed to calculate the mortality burden attributable to wood heating emissions (WHE)-related PM2.5 throughout Australia and estimate the potential health benefits of reducing WHE-related air pollution, by replacing wood heaters with cleaner heating technologies. In summary, we used a four-stage process to (1) compile a nationwide WHE inventory, (2) generate annual exposure estimates of WHE-PM2.5, (3) estimate the annual mortality burden attributable to wood heater use across Australia for the year 2015, and (4) assess the potential health benefits of replacing existing wood heaters with cleaner heating technologies. We estimated that population weighted WHE-PM2.5 exposure across Australia for 2015 ranged between 0.62 µg/m3 and 1.35 µg/m3, with differing exposures across State/Territories. We estimated a considerable mortality burden attributable to WHE-PM2.5 ranging between 558 (95 % CI, 364-738) and 1555 (95 % CI, 1180-1740) deaths annually, depending on the scenario assessed. We calculated that replacing 50 % of the current wood heater stock, with zero or lower emission technologies could produce relevant health benefits, of between $AUD 1.61 and $AUD 1.93 billion per year (303-364 attributable deaths). These findings provide a preliminary and likely conservative assessment of the health burden of wood heater smoke across Australia, and an estimation of the potential benefits from replacing the current wood heater stock with cleaner technologies. The results presented here underscore the magnitude of the health burden attributable to wood heating in Australia.

Mortality and hospitalisation costs of rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease in New Zealand.

AIMS: To estimate the annual mortality and the cost of hospital admissions for acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD) for New Zealand residents. METHODS: Hospital admissions in 2000-2009 with a principal diagnosis of ARF or RHD (ICD9_AM 390-398; ICD10-AM I00-I099) and deaths in 2000-2007 with RHD as the underlying cause were obtained from routine statistics. The cost of each admission was estimated by multiplying its diagnosis-related group (DRG) cost weight by the national price for financial year 2009/2010. RESULTS: There were on average 159 RHD deaths each year with a mean annual mortality rate of 4.4 per 100, 000 (95% confidence limit 4.2, 4.7). Age-adjusted mortality was five- to 10-fold higher for Maori and Pacific peoples than for non-Maori/Pacific. The mean age at RHD death (male/female) was 56.4/58.4 for Maori, 50.9/59.8 for Pacific and 78.2/80.6 for non-Maori, non-Pacific men and women. The average annual DRG-based cost of hospital admissions in 2000-2009 for ARF and RHD across all age groups was $12.0 million (95% confidence limit $11.1 million, $12.8 million). Heart valve surgery accounted for 28% of admissions and 71% of the cost. For children 5-14 years of age, valve surgery accounted for 7% of admissions and 27% of the cost. Two-thirds of the cost occurs after the age of 30. CONCLUSIONS: ARF and RHD comprise a burden of mortality and hospital cost concentrated largely in middle age. Maori and Pacific RHD mortality rates are substantially higher than those of non-Maori/Pacific.

Incidence of acute rheumatic fever in New Zealand children and youth.

AIM: To estimate acute rheumatic fever (ARF) incidence rates for New Zealand children and youth by ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation and region. METHODS: National hospital admissions with a principal diagnosis of ARF (ICD9_AM 390-392; ICD10-AM I00-I02) were obtained from routine statistics and stratified by age, ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation index (NZDep2006) and District Health Board (DHB). RESULTS: The mean incidence rate for ARF in 2000-2009 peaked at 9 to 12 years of age. Incidence rates for children 5 to 14 years of age for Maori were 40.2 (95% confidence interval 36.8, 43.8), Pacific 81.2 (73.4, 89.6), non-Maori/Pacific 2.1 (1.6, 2.6) and all children 17.2 (16.1, 18.3) per 100 000. Maori and Pacific incidence rates increased by 79% and 73% in 1993-2009, while non-Maori/Pacific rates declined by 71%. Overall rates increased by 59%. In 2000-2009, Maori and Pacific children comprised 30% of children 5-14 years of age but accounted for 95% of new cases. Almost 90% of index cases of ARF were in the highest five deciles of socioeconomic deprivation and 70% were in the most deprived quintile. A child living in the most deprived decile has about one in 150 risk of being admitted to the hospital for ARF by 15 years of age. Ten DHBs containing 76% of the population 5 to 14 years of age accounted for 94% of index cases of ARF. CONCLUSIONS: ARF with its attendant rheumatic heart disease is an increasing public health issue for disadvantaged North Island communities with high concentrations of Maori and/or Pacific families.

Study protocol for a randomised trial of nicotine-free cigarettes as an adjunct to usual NRT-based cessation practice, in people who wish to stop smoking.

BACKGROUND: Current smoking cessation treatments focus on addressing the pharmacological dependence of smokers on nicotine. However, new strategies are needed that address both nicotine dependence and the psychological dependence on cigarettes as the source of nicotine. Evidence from a number of small smoking cessation studies suggests that the use of cigarettes with reduced nicotine content, in combination with nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), may help reduce withdrawal symptoms and increase quit rates. This paper describes the protocol for a large randomised-controlled trial to test the effect of using nicotine-free cigarettes together with NRT on long-term quit rates. METHODS/DESIGN: This single-blind, randomised trial aims to recruit 1,410 participants through the national telephone-based Quitline service in New Zealand. Participants in the treatment arm will be asked to stop smoking nicotine-containing cigarettes on their chosen Quit day and smoke ad libitum nicotine-free (Quest 3) cigarettes for six weeks. At the same time people in this group will be asked to start using NRT patches, gum and/or lozenges (as recommended by Quitline) for eight weeks. Participants in the control arm will be asked to stop smoking completely on their chosen Quit day and start using NRT patches, gum and/or lozenges (as recommended by Quitline) for eight weeks. Data collection will occur at baseline, three and six weeks, and three and six months after Quit day. The primary outcome is the proportion of participants who self-report seven-day point prevalence abstinence at six months since Quit date. DISCUSSION: Smoking prevalence in New Zealand has changed little in recent years (particularly in Maori, the indigenous people of New Zealand) and additional options for smokers who want to quit are needed. Although a variety of methods are available to help, many are expensive, have side effects, and despite their use most quit attempts still fail. This trial will test the balance of benefits and risks of a new strategy for people to overcome nicotine dependence. Since smoking is the leading cause of lost healthy life years in New Zealand, if proven effective this strategy is likely to have substantial public health benefits.

Long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution and risk factors for cardiovascular disease within a cohort of older men in Perth.

While there is clear evidence that high levels of pollution are associated with increased all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality and morbidity, the biological mechanisms that would explain this association are less understood. We examined the association between long-term exposure to air pollutants and risk factors associated with cardiovascular disease. Air pollutant concentrations were estimated at place of residence for cohort members in the Western Australian Centre for Health and Ageing Health in Men Study. Blood samples and blood pressure measures were taken for a cohort of 4249 men aged 70 years and above between 2001 and 2004. We examined the association between 1-year average pollutant concentrations with blood pressure, cholesterol, triglycerides, C-reactive protein, and total homocysteine. Linear regression analyses were carried out, with adjustment for confounding, as well as an assessment of potential effect modification. The four pollutants examined were fine particulate matter, black carbon (BC), nitrogen dioxide, and nitrogen oxides. We found that a 2.25 µg/m3 higher exposure to fine particulate matter was associated with a 1.1 percent lower high-density cholesterol (95% confidence interval: -2.4 to 0.1) and 4.0 percent higher serum triglycerides (95% confidence interval: 1.5 to 6.6). Effect modification of these associations by diabetes history was apparent. We found no evidence of an association between any of the remaining risk factors or biomarkers with measures of outdoor air pollution. These findings indicate that long-term PM2.5 exposure is associated with elevated serum triglycerides and decreased HDL cholesterol. This requires further investigation to determine the reasons for this association.

The study protocol for a randomized controlled trial of a family-centred tobacco control program about environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) to reduce respiratory illness in Indigenous infants.

BACKGROUND: Acute respiratory illness (ARI) is the most common cause of acute presentations and hospitalisations of young Indigenous children in Australia and New Zealand (NZ). Environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) from household smoking is a significant and preventable contributor to childhood ARI. This paper describes the protocol for a study which aims to test the efficacy of a family-centred tobacco control program about ETS to improve the respiratory health of Indigenous infants in Australia and New Zealand. For the purpose of this paper 'Indigenous' refers to Australia's Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples when referring to Australian Indigenous populations. In New Zealand, the term 'Indigenous' refers to Maori. METHODS/DESIGN: This study will be a parallel, randomized, controlled trial. Participants will be Indigenous women and their infants, half of whom will be randomly allocated to an 'intervention' group, who will receive the tobacco control program over three home visits in the first three months of the infant's life and half to a control group receiving 'usual care' (i.e. they will not receive the tobacco control program). Indigenous health workers will deliver the intervention, the goal of which is to reduce or eliminate infant exposure to ETS. Data collection will occur at baseline (shortly after birth) and when the infant is four months and one year of age. The primary outcome is a doctor-diagnosed, documented case of respiratory illness in participating infants. DISCUSSION: Interventions aimed at reducing exposure of Indigenous children to ETS have the potential for significant benefits for Indigenous communities. There is currently a dearth of evidence for the effect of tobacco control interventions to reduce children's exposure to ETS among Indigenous populations. This study will provide high-quality evidence of the efficacy of a family-centred tobacco control program on ETS to reduce respiratory illness. Outcomes of our study will be important and significant for Indigenous tobacco control in Australia and New Zealand and prevention of respiratory illness in children.

Burden and cost of hospital admissions for vaccine-preventable paediatric pneumococcal disease and non-typable Haemophilus influenzae otitis media in New Zealand.

INTRODUCTION: Streptococcus pneumoniae (Sp.) is a leading cause of paediatric bacterial meningitis, pneumonia and acute otitis media, as is non-typable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) for acute otitis media. In 2008, a 7-valent conjugated pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) was included in the New Zealand (NZ) childhood immunization schedule. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the potentially vaccine-preventable annual hospital admissions and cost to the NZ Government of paediatric admissions for pneumococcal disease and NTHi otitis media prior to the immunization programme. METHODS: Admissions (2000-7) and deaths (2000-5) in children aged<20 years with pneumococcal meningitis or bacteraemia, pneumonia or otitis media were identified in national datasets and linked by unique patient identifiers. New episodes of illness were defined as admissions occurring >30 days after discharge from a previous admission. Informed by the literature, pneumococcal pneumonia episodes were estimated at 33% of all-cause pneumonia admissions; Sp. and NTHi otitis media episodes were estimated jointly at 72% of otitis media admissions. Each episode was assigned a single diagnosis according to the following hierarchy: meningitis>bacteraemia>pneumonia>otitis media. Incidence rates for episodes were determined for 2000-7 (meningitis, bacteraemia and pneumonia) and 2006-7 (otitis media). Annual DRG-based costs for pneumococcal meningitis, bacteraemia, pneumonia and otitis media were estimated as (episode rate)x(DRG cost weight per episode)x(2007 population)x(national price per cost weight). RESULTS: Episode rates for pneumococcal meningitis, bacteraemia and pneumonia were stable in 2000-7, highest in the second 6 months of life and declined steeply over the first 5 years of life. Mean rates per 100000 in 2000-7 were 18.4, 27.6 and 464 for pneumococcal meningitis, bacteraemia and pneumonia, respectively, for children aged<2 years; 8.4, 14.9 and 295 for children aged<5 years (including those aged<2 years); and 2.2, 4.4 and 97 for children aged<20 years (including those aged<5 years). Mean rates per 100000 in 2006-7 for Sp. and NTHi otitis media combined were 631 (surgical) and 197 (medical) for children aged<2 years; 691 and 116 for children aged<5 years; and 281 and 35 for children aged<20 years. Pacific Island and indigenous Maori children generally had higher rates than European/other children. Rates increased with socioeconomic disadvantage, across all diagnoses. The annual cost to Government of pneumococcal disease and NTHi otitis media admissions for children aged<20 years was estimated at New Zealand dollars ($NZ)9.95 million (range 7.7-12.2 million) [about $US7.1 million]. Most of this cost was shared between pneumococcal pneumonia (48%) and otitis media (45%), and 78% was incurred in the first 2 years of life. Estimated annual paediatric mortality rates per 100 000 for children aged<5 years were 0.48, 0.30 and 0.54 for pneumococcal meningitis, bacteraemia and pneumonia, respectively. The analysis predicted four or five pneumococcal deaths per year (range 1-8) for children aged<5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Prior to the introduction of a national Sp. immunization programme, hospital admissions for Sp. disease and NTHi otitis media in NZ cost about $NZ10 million annually, mostly for children aged<2 years and particularly for those living in relative socioeconomic deprivation and for Pacific Island and Maori children. There were about five pneumococcal deaths annually. With adjustment for local serotypes, vaccine serotype coverage and uptake, immunization with any of the three available pneumococcal vaccines would reduce this burden substantially.

Avoidable Mortality Attributable to Anthropogenic Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) in Australia.

Ambient fine particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM2.5) air pollution increases premature mortality globally. Some PM2.5 is natural, but anthropogenic PM2.5 is comparatively avoidable. We determined the impact of long-term exposures to the anthropogenic PM component on mortality in Australia. PM2.5-attributable deaths were calculated for all Australian Statistical Area 2 (SA2; n = 2310) regions. All-cause death rates from Australian mortality and population databases were combined with annual anthropogenic PM2.5 exposures for the years 2006-2016. Relative risk estimates were derived from the literature. Population-weighted average PM2.5 concentrations were estimated in each SA2 using a satellite and land use regression model for Australia. PM2.5-attributable mortality was calculated using a health-impact assessment methodology with life tables and all-cause death rates. The changes in life expectancy (LE) from birth, years of life lost (YLL), and economic cost of lost life years were calculated using the 2019 value of a statistical life. Nationally, long-term population-weighted average total and anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations were 6.5 µg/m3 (min 1.2-max 14.2) and 3.2 µg/m3 (min 0-max 9.5), respectively. Annually, anthropogenic PM2.5-pollution is associated with 2616 (95% confidence intervals 1712, 3455) deaths, corresponding to a 0.2-year (95% CI 0.14, 0.28) reduction in LE for children aged 0-4 years, 38,962 (95%CI 25,391, 51,669) YLL and an average annual economic burden of $6.2 billion (95%CI $4.0 billion, $8.1 billion). We conclude that the anthropogenic PM2.5-related costs of mortality in Australia are higher than community standards should allow, and reductions in emissions are recommended to achieve avoidable mortality.

Global burden of blood-pressure-related disease, 2001.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have assessed the extent and distribution of the blood-pressure burden worldwide. The aim of this study was to quantify the global burden of disease related to high blood pressure. METHODS: Worldwide burden of disease attributable to high blood pressure (> or =115 mm Hg systolic) was estimated for groups according to age (> or =30 years), sex, and World Bank region in the year 2001. Population impact fractions were calculated with data for mean systolic blood pressure, burden of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and relative risk corrected for regression dilution bias. FINDINGS: Worldwide, 7.6 million premature deaths (about 13.5% of the global total) and 92 million DALYs (6.0% of the global total) were attributed to high blood pressure. About 54% of stroke and 47% of ischaemic heart disease worldwide were attributable to high blood pressure. About half this burden was in people with hypertension; the remainder was in those with lesser degrees of high blood pressure. Overall, about 80% of the attributable burden occurred in low-income and middle-income economies, and over half occurred in people aged 45-69 years. INTERPRETATION: Most of the disease burden caused by high blood pressure is borne by low-income and middle-income countries, by people in middle age, and by people with prehypertension. Prevention and treatment strategies restricted to individuals with hypertension will miss much blood-pressure-related disease.

Feasibility, design and conduct of a pragmatic randomized controlled trial to reduce overweight and obesity in children: The electronic games to aid motivation to exercise (eGAME) study.

BACKGROUND: Childhood obesity has reached epidemic proportions in developed countries. Sedentary screen-based activities such as video gaming are thought to displace active behaviors and are independently associated with obesity. Active video games, where players physically interact with images onscreen, may have utility as a novel intervention to increase physical activity and improve body composition in children. The aim of the Electronic Games to Aid Motivation to Exercise (eGAME) study is to determine the effects of an active video game intervention over 6 months on: body mass index (BMI), percent body fat, waist circumference, cardio-respiratory fitness, and physical activity levels in overweight children. METHODS/DESIGN: Three hundred and thirty participants aged 10-14 years will be randomized to receive either an active video game upgrade package or to a control group (no intervention). DISCUSSION: An overview of the eGAME study is presented, providing an example of a large, pragmatic randomized controlled trial in a community setting. Reflection is offered on key issues encountered during the course of the study. In particular, investigation into the feasibility of the proposed intervention, as well as robust testing of proposed study procedures is a critical step prior to implementation of a large-scale trial.

Global and regional mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke attributable to higher-than-optimum blood glucose concentration: comparative risk assessment.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular mortality risk increases continuously with blood glucose, from concentrations well below conventional thresholds used to define diabetes. We aimed to quantify population-level effects of all higher-than-optimum concentrations of blood glucose on mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke worldwide. METHODS: We used population distribution of fasting plasma glucose to measure exposure to higher-than-optimum blood glucose. We collated exposure data in 52 countries from individual-level records in population health surveys, systematic reviews, and data provided by investigators. Relative risks for ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality were from a meta-analysis of more than 200,000 participants in the Asia-Pacific region, with adjustment for other cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: In addition to 959,000 deaths directly assigned to diabetes, 1 490,000 deaths from ischaemic heart disease and 709,000 from stroke were attributable to high blood glucose, accounting for 21% and 13% of all deaths from these conditions. 1.8 million of these 2.2 million cardiovascular deaths (84%) were in low-and-middle-income countries (1,224,000 for ischaemic heart disease, 623,000 for stroke). 792,000 (53%) of deaths from ischaemic heart disease and 345,000 (49%) from stroke that were attributable to high blood glucose were in men. Largest numbers of deaths attributable to this risk factor from ischaemic heart disease were in low-and-middle-income countries of South Asia (548,000) and Europe and Central Asia (313,000), and from stroke in South Asia (215,000) and East Asia and Pacific (190,000). INTERPRETATION: Higher-than-optimum blood glucose is a leading cause of cardiovascular mortality in most world regions. Programmes for cardiovascular risk and diabetes management and control at the population level need to be more closely integrated.

International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) and New Zealand Physical Activity Questionnaire (NZPAQ): a doubly labelled water validation.

BACKGROUND: Accurate measurement of physical activity is a pre-requisite for monitoring population health and for evaluating effective interventions. The International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) is used as a comparable and standardised self-report measure of habitual physical activity of populations from different countries and socio-cultural contexts. The IPAQ has been modified to produce a New Zealand physical activity questionnaire (NZPAQ). The aim of this study was to validate the IPAQ and NZPAQ against doubly labelled water (DLW). METHOD: Total energy expenditure (TEE) was measured over a 15-day period using DLW. Activity-related energy expenditure (AEE) was estimated by subtracting the energy expenditure from resting metabolic rate and thermic effect of feeding from TEE. The IPAQ (long form) and NZPAQ (short form) were completed at the end of each 7-day period. Activity-related energy expenditure (IPAQAEE and NZPAQAEE) was calculated from each questionnaire and compared to DLWAEE. RESULTS: Thirty six adults aged 18 to 56 years (56% female) completed all measurements. Compared to DLWAEE, IPAQAEE and NZPAQAEE on average underestimated energy expenditure by 27% and 59%, respectively. There was good agreement between DLWAEE and both IPAQAEE and NZPAQAEE at lower levels of physical activity. However there was marked underestimation of questionnaire-derived energy expenditure at higher levels of activity. CONCLUSION: Both the IPAQ and NZPAQ instruments have a demonstrated systematic bias toward underestimation of physical activity-related energy expenditure at higher levels of physical activity compared to DLW. Appropriate calibration factors could be used to correct for measurement error in physical activity questionnaires and hence improve estimation of AEE.

Improving child survival through environmental and nutritional interventions: the importance of targeting interventions toward the poor.

CONTEXT: The United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) set targets related to important global poverty, health, and sustainability issues. A critical but underinvestigated question for planning and allocating resources toward the MDGs is how interventions related to one MDG might affect progress toward other goals. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the reduction in child mortality as a result of interventions related to the environmental and nutritional MDGs (improving child nutrition and providing clean water, sanitation, and fuels) and to estimate how the magnitude and distribution of the effects of interventions vary based on the economic status of intervention recipients. DESIGN, SETTING, AND POPULATION: Population-level comparative risk assessment modeling the mortality effects of interventions on child nutrition and environmental risk factors, stratified by economic status. Data on economic status, child underweight, water and sanitation, and household fuels were from the nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys for 42 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. Data on disease-specific child mortality were from the World Health Organization. Data on the hazardous effects of each MDG-related risk factor were from systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Child mortality, stratified by comparable international quintiles of economic status. RESULTS: Implementing interventions that improve child nutrition and provide clean water and sanitation and clean household fuels to all children younger than 5 years would result in an estimated annual reduction in child deaths of 49,700 (14%) in Latin America and the Caribbean, 0.80 million (24%) in South Asia, and 1.47 million (31%) in sub-Saharan Africa. These benefits are equivalent to 30% to 48% of the current regional gaps toward the MDG target on reducing child mortality. Fifty percent coverage of the same environmental and nutritional interventions, as envisioned by the MDGs, would reduce child mortality by 26,900, 0.51 million, and 1.02 million in the 3 regions, respectively, if the interventions are implemented among the poor first. These reductions are 30% to 75% larger than those expected if the same 50% coverage first reached the wealthier households, who nonetheless are in need of similar interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions related to nutritional and environmental MDGs can also provide substantial gains toward the MDG of reducing child mortality. To maximize the reduction in childhood mortality, such integrated management of interventions should prioritize the poor.