The value of admission avoidance: cost-consequence analysis of one-year activity in a consolidated service.

BACKGROUND: Many advantages of hospital at home (HaH), as a modality of acute care, have been highlighted, but controversies exist regarding the cost-benefit trade-offs. The objective is to assess health outcomes and analytical costs of hospital avoidance (HaH-HA) in a consolidated service with over ten years of delivery of HaH in Barcelona (Spain). METHODS: A retrospective cost-consequence analysis of all first episodes of HaH-HA, directly admitted from the emergency room (ER) in 2017-2018, was carried out with a health system perspective. HaH-HA was compared with a propensity-score-matched group of contemporary patients admitted to conventional hospitalization (Controls). Mortality, re-admissions, ER visits, and direct healthcare costs were evaluated. RESULTS: HaH-HA and Controls (n = 441 each) were comparable in terms of age (73 [SD16] vs. 74 [SD16]), gender (male, 57% vs. 59%), multimorbidity, healthcare expenditure during the previous year, case mix index of the acute episode, and main diagnosis at discharge. HaH-HA presented lower mortality during the episode (0 vs. 19 (4.3%); p < 0.001). At 30 days post-discharge, HaH-HA and Controls showed similar re-admission rates; however, ER visits were lower in HaH-HA than in Controls (28 (6.3%) vs. 34 (8.1%); p = 0.044). Average costs per patient during the episode were lower in the HaH-HA group (€ 1,078) than in Controls (€ 2,171). Likewise, healthcare costs within the 30 days post-discharge were also lower in HaH-Ha than in Controls (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The study showed higher performance and cost reductions of HaH-HA in a real-world setting. The identification of sources of savings facilitates scaling of hospital avoidance. REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov (26/04/2017; NCT03130283).

Five years of Hospital at Home adoption in Catalonia: impact, challenges, and proposals for quality assurance.

BACKGROUND: Hospital at home (HaH) was increasingly implemented in Catalonia (7.7 M citizens, Spain) achieving regional adoption within the 2011-2015 Health Plan. This study aimed to assess population-wide HaH outcomes over five years (2015-2019) in a consolidated regional program and provide context-independent recommendations for continuous quality improvement of the service. METHODS: A mixed-methods approach was adopted, combining population-based retrospective analyses of registry information with qualitative research. HaH (admission avoidance modality) was compared with a conventional hospitalization group using propensity score matching techniques. We evaluated the 12-month period before the admission, the hospitalization, and use of healthcare resources at 30 days after discharge. A panel of experts discussed the results and provided recommendations for monitoring HaH services. RESULTS: The adoption of HaH steadily increased from 5,185 episodes/year in 2015 to 8,086 episodes/year in 2019 (total episodes 31,901; mean age 73 (SD 17) years; 79% high-risk patients. Mortality rates were similar between HaH and conventional hospitalization within the episode [76 (0.31%) vs. 112 (0.45%)] and at 30-days after discharge [973(3.94%) vs. 1112(3.24%)]. Likewise, the rates of hospital re-admissions at 30 days after discharge were also similar between groups: 2,00 (8.08%) vs. 1,63 (6.58%)] or ER visits [4,11 (16.62%) vs. 3,97 (16.03%). The 27 hospitals assessed showed high variability in patients' age, multimorbidity, severity of episodes, recurrences, and length of stay of HaH episodes. Recommendations aiming at enhancing service delivery were produced. CONCLUSIONS: Besides confirming safety and value generation of HaH for selected patients, we found that this service is delivered in a case-mix of different scenarios, encouraging hospital-profiled monitoring of the service.

Multicentric Assessment of a Multimorbidity-Adjusted Disability Score to Stratify Depression-Related Risks Using Temporal Disease Maps: Instrument Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive management of multimorbidity can significantly benefit from advanced health risk assessment tools that facilitate value-based interventions, allowing for the assessment and prediction of disease progression. Our study proposes a novel methodology, the Multimorbidity-Adjusted Disability Score (MADS), which integrates disease trajectory methodologies with advanced techniques for assessing interdependencies among concurrent diseases. This approach is designed to better assess the clinical burden of clusters of interrelated diseases and enhance our ability to anticipate disease progression, thereby potentially informing targeted preventive care interventions. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the MADS in stratifying patients into clinically relevant risk groups based on their multimorbidity profiles, which accurately reflect their clinical complexity and the probabilities of developing new associated disease conditions. METHODS: In a retrospective multicentric cohort study, we developed the MADS by analyzing disease trajectories and applying Bayesian statistics to determine disease-disease probabilities combined with well-established disability weights. We used major depressive disorder (MDD) as a primary case study for this evaluation. We stratified patients into different risk levels corresponding to different percentiles of MADS distribution. We statistically assessed the association of MADS risk strata with mortality, health care resource use, and disease progression across 1 million individuals from Spain, the United Kingdom, and Finland. RESULTS: The results revealed significantly different distributions of the assessed outcomes across the MADS risk tiers, including mortality rates; primary care visits; specialized care outpatient consultations; visits in mental health specialized centers; emergency room visits; hospitalizations; pharmacological and nonpharmacological expenditures; and dispensation of antipsychotics, anxiolytics, sedatives, and antidepressants (P<.001 in all cases). Moreover, the results of the pairwise comparisons between adjacent risk tiers illustrate a substantial and gradual pattern of increased mortality rate, heightened health care use, increased health care expenditures, and a raised pharmacological burden as individuals progress from lower MADS risk tiers to higher-risk tiers. The analysis also revealed an augmented risk of multimorbidity progression within the high-risk groups, aligned with a higher incidence of new onsets of MDD-related diseases. CONCLUSIONS: The MADS seems to be a promising approach for predicting health risks associated with multimorbidity. It might complement current risk assessment state-of-the-art tools by providing valuable insights for tailored epidemiological impact analyses of clusters of interrelated diseases and by accurately assessing multimorbidity progression risks. This study paves the way for innovative digital developments to support advanced health risk assessment strategies. Further validation is required to generalize its use beyond the initial case study of MDD.

Healthcare risk stratification model for emergency departments based on drugs, income and comorbidities: the DICER-score.

BACKGROUND: During the last decade, the progressive increase in age and associated chronic comorbidities and polypharmacy. However, assessments of the risk of emergency department (ED) revisiting published to date often neglect patients' pharmacotherapy plans, thus overseeing the Drug-related problems (DRP) risks associated with the therapy burden. The aim of this study is to develop a predictive model for ED revisit, hospital admission, and mortality based on patient's characteristics and pharmacotherapy. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study including adult patients visited in the ED (triage 1, 2, or 3) of multiple hospitals in Catalonia (Spain) during 2019. The primary endpoint was a composite of ED visits, hospital admission, or mortality 30 days after ED discharge. The study population was randomly split into a model development (60%) and validation (40%) datasets. The model included age, sex, income level, comorbidity burden, measured with the Adjusted Morbidity Groups (GMA), and number of medications. Forty-four medication groups, associated with medication-related health problems, were assessed using ATC codes. To assess the performance of the different variables, logistic regression was used to build multivariate models for ED revisits. The models were created using a "stepwise-forward" approach based on the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). Area under the curve of the receiving operating characteristics (AUCROC) curve for the primary endpoint was calculated. RESULTS: 851.649 patients were included; 134.560 (15.8%) revisited the ED within 30 days from discharge, 15.2% were hospitalized and 9.1% died within 30 days from discharge. Four factors (sex, age, GMA, and income level) and 30 ATC groups were identified as risk factors and combined into a final score. The model showed an AUCROC values of 0.720 (95%CI:0.718-0.721) in the development cohort and 0.719 (95%CI.0.717-0.721) in the validation cohort. Three risk categories were generated, with the following scores and estimated risks: low risk: 18.3%; intermediate risk: 40.0%; and high risk: 62.6%. CONCLUSION: The DICER score allows identifying patients at high risk for ED revisit within 30 days based on sociodemographic, clinical, and pharmacotherapeutic characteristics, being a valuable tool to prioritize interventions on discharge.

Actionable Factors Fostering Health Value Generation and Scalability of Prehabilitation: A Prospective Cohort Study.

IMPORTANCE: Prehabilitation has potential for improving surgical outcomes as shown in previous randomized controlled trials. However, a marked efficacy-effectiveness gap is limiting its scalability. Comprehensive analyses of deployment of the intervention in real-life scenarios are required. OBJECTIVE: To assess health outcomes and cost of prehabilitation. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study with a control group built using propensity score-matching techniques. SETTING: Prehabilitation Unit in a tertiary-care university hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Candidates for major digestive, cardiac, thoracic, gynecologic, or urologic surgeries. INTERVENTION: Prehabilitation program, including supervised exercise training, promotion of physical activity, nutritional optimization, and psychological support. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The comprehensive complication index, hospital and intensive care unit length of stay, and hospital costs per patient until 30 days after surgery. Patients were classified by the degree of program completion and level of surgical aggression for sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: The analysis of the entire study group did not show differences in study outcomes between prehabilitation and control groups (n=328 each). The per-protocol analysis, including only patients completing the program (n=112, 34%), showed a reduction in mean hospital stay [9.9 (7.2) vs 12.8 (12.4) days; P =0.035]. Completers undergoing highly aggressive surgeries (n=60) additionally showed reduction in mean intensive care unit stay [2.3 (2.7) vs 3.8 (4.2) days; P =0.021] and generated mean cost savings per patient of €3092 (32% cost reduction) ( P =0.007). Five priority areas for action to enhance service efficiencies were identified. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The study indicates a low rate of completion of the intervention and identifies priority areas for re-design of service delivery to enhance the effectiveness of prehabilitation.

Prevention of Unplanned Hospital Admissions in Multimorbid Patients Using Computational Modeling: Observational Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Enhanced management of multimorbidity constitutes a major clinical challenge. Multimorbidity shows well-established causal relationships with the high use of health care resources and, specifically, with unplanned hospital admissions. Enhanced patient stratification is vital for achieving effectiveness through personalized postdischarge service selection. OBJECTIVE: The study has a 2-fold aim: (1) generation and assessment of predictive models of mortality and readmission at 90 days after discharge; and (2) characterization of patients' profiles for personalized service selection purposes. METHODS: Gradient boosting techniques were used to generate predictive models based on multisource data (registries, clinical/functional and social support) from 761 nonsurgical patients admitted in a tertiary hospital over 12 months (October 2017 to November 2018). K-means clustering was used to characterize patient profiles. RESULTS: Performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity) of the predictive models was 0.82, 0.78, and 0.70 and 0.72, 0.70, and 0.63 for mortality and readmissions, respectively. A total of 4 patients' profiles were identified. In brief, the reference patients (cluster 1; 281/761, 36.9%), 53.7% (151/281) men and mean age of 71 (SD 16) years, showed 3.6% (10/281) mortality and 15.7% (44/281) readmissions at 90 days following discharge. The unhealthy lifestyle habit profile (cluster 2; 179/761, 23.5%) predominantly comprised males (137/179, 76.5%) with similar age, mean 70 (SD 13) years, but showed slightly higher mortality (10/179, 5.6%) and markedly higher readmission rate (49/179, 27.4%). Patients in the frailty profile (cluster 3; 152/761, 19.9%) were older (mean 81 years, SD 13 years) and predominantly female (63/152, 41.4%, males). They showed medical complexity with a high level of social vulnerability and the highest mortality rate (23/152, 15.1%), but with a similar hospitalization rate (39/152, 25.7%) compared with cluster 2. Finally, the medical complexity profile (cluster 4; 149/761, 19.6%), mean age 83 (SD 9) years, 55.7% (83/149) males, showed the highest clinical complexity resulting in 12.8% (19/149) mortality and the highest readmission rate (56/149, 37.6%). CONCLUSIONS: The results indicated the potential to predict mortality and morbidity-related adverse events leading to unplanned hospital readmissions. The resulting patient profiles fostered recommendations for personalized service selection with the capacity for value generation.

Trends in mortality in septic patients according to the different organ failure during 15 years.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of sepsis can be estimated between 250 and 500 cases/100.000 people per year and is responsible for up to 6% of total hospital admissions. Identified as one of the most relevant global health problems, sepsis is the condition that generates the highest costs in the healthcare system. Important changes in the management of septic patients have been included in recent years; however, there is no information about how changes in the management of sepsis-associated organ failure have contributed to reduce mortality. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted from hospital discharge records from the Minimum Basic Data Set Acute-Care Hospitals (CMBD-HA in Catalan language) for the Catalan Health System (CatSalut). CMBD-HA is a mandatory population-based register of admissions to all public and private acute-care hospitals in Catalonia. Sepsis was defined by the presence of infection and at least one organ dysfunction. Patients hospitalized with sepsis were detected, according ICD-9-CM (since 2005 to 2017) and ICD-10-CM (2018 and 2019) codes used to identify acute organ dysfunction and infectious processes. RESULTS: Of 11.916.974 discharges from all acute-care hospitals during the study period (2005-2019), 296.554 had sepsis (2.49%). The mean annual sepsis incidence in the population was 264.1 per 100.000 inhabitants/year, and it increased every year, going from 144.5 in 2005 to 410.1 in 2019. Multiorgan failure was present in 21.9% and bacteremia in 26.3% of cases. Renal was the most frequent organ failure (56.8%), followed by cardiovascular (24.2%). Hospital mortality during the study period was 19.5%, but decreases continuously from 25.7% in 2005 to 17.9% in 2019 (p < 0.0001). The most important reduction in mortality was observed in cases with cardiovascular failure (from 47.3% in 2005 to 31.2% in 2019) (p < 0.0001). In the same way, mean mortality related to renal and respiratory failure in sepsis was decreased in last years (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of sepsis has been increasing in recent years in our country. However, hospital mortality has been significantly reduced. In septic patients, all organ failures except liver have shown a statistically significant reduction on associated mortality, with cardiovascular failure as the most relevant.

Prospective cohort study for assessment of integrated care with a triple aim approach: hospital at home as use case.

BACKGROUND: Applicability of comprehensive assessment of integrated care services in real world settings is an unmet need. To this end, a Triple Aim evaluation of Hospital at Home (HaH), as use case, was done. As ancillary aim, we explored use of the approach for monitoring the impact of adoption of integrated care at health system level in Catalonia (Spain). METHODS: Prospective cohort study over one year period, 2017-2018, comparing hospital avoidance (HaH-HA) with conventional hospitalization (UC) using propensity score matching. Participants were after the first episode directly admitted to HaH-HA or the corresponding control group. Triple Aim assessment using multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) was done. Moreover, applicability of a Triple Aim approach at health system level was explored using registry data. RESULTS: HaH-HA depicted lower: i) Emergency Room Department (ER) visits (p < .001), ii) Unplanned re-admissions (p = .012); and iii) costs (p < .001) than UC. The weighted aggregation of the standardized values of each of the eight outcomes, weighted by the opinions of the stakeholder groups considered in the MCDA: i) enjoyment of life; ii) resilience; iii) physical functioning; iv) continuity of care; v) psychological wellbeing; (vi) social relationships & participation; (vii) person-centeredness; and (viii) costs, indicated better performance of HaH-HA than UC (p < .05). Actionable factors for Triple Aim assessment of the health system with a population-health approach were identified. CONCLUSIONS: We confirmed health value generation of HaH-HA. The study identified actionable factors to enhance applicability of Triple Aim assessment at health system level for monitoring the impact of adoption of integrated care. REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov (26/04/2017; NCT03130283).

Use of healthcare resources and drug expenditure before and after treatment of chronic hepatitis C with direct antiviral agents.

The aim of this study was to analyse the impact of treating chronic hepatitis C (CHC) with direct-acting agents (DAA) on the use of healthcare resources. We included all patients treated with DAA for CHC from January 2015 to December 2017 in Catalonia whose medical records from 12 months before to 24 months after treatment were available. Data were obtained from the Catalan Health Surveillance System. A total of 12,199 patients in Catalonia were treated with DAA for CHC. Of these, 11.3% had no-minimal fibrosis (F0-F1), 24.0% had moderate fibrosis (F2), 50.3% had significant fibrosis or cirrhosis (F3-F4), and 14.4% had decompensated cirrhosis. Use of healthcare resources decreased from the pre-treatment period to the post-treatment period for the following: hospital admissions due to complications of cirrhosis, from 0.19 to 0.12 per month per 100 patients (RR 0.57; 95% CI 0.47-0.68); length of hospital stay, from 12.9 to 12.2 days (RR 0.93; 95% CI 0.91-0.94); outpatient visits, from 65.0 to 49.2 (RR 0.75; 95% CI 0.74-0.75); and number of medication containers per patient per month, from 13.9 to 12.5 (RR 0.837; 95% CI 0.835-0.838). However, the number of invoices for antineoplastic treatment increased after DAA treatment, especially for patients with high morbidity or advanced fibrosis stage. In conclusion, a decrease in health resource use was seen in CHC patients treated with DAA, as measured by length of hospital stay, number of admissions due to cirrhosis complications, outpatient visits and overall drug invoicing. However, use of antineoplastic drugs increased significantly, especially in patients with cirrhosis and high morbidity.

Performance of quantitative measures of multimorbidity: a population-based retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity measures are useful for resource planning, patient selection and prioritization, and factor adjustment in clinical practice, research, and benchmarking. We aimed to compare the explanatory performance of the adjusted morbidity group (GMA) index in predicting relevant healthcare outcomes with that of other quantitative measures of multimorbidity. METHODS: The performance of multimorbidity measures was retrospectively assessed on anonymized records of the entire adult population of Catalonia (North-East Spain). Five quantitative measures of multimorbidity were added to a baseline model based on age, gender, and socioeconomic status: the Charlson index score, the count of chronic diseases according to three different proposals (i.e., the QOF, HCUP, and Karolinska institute), and the multimorbidity index score of the GMA tool. Outcomes included all-cause death, total and non-scheduled hospitalization, primary care and ER visits, medication use, admission to a skilled nursing facility for intermediate care, and high expenditure (time frame 2017). The analysis was performed on 10 subpopulations: all adults (i.e., aged > 17 years), people aged > 64 years, people aged > 64 years and institutionalized in a nursing home for long-term care, and people with specific diagnoses (e.g., ischemic heart disease, cirrhosis, dementia, diabetes mellitus, heart failure, chronic kidney disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease). The explanatory performance was assessed using the area under the receiving operating curves (AUC-ROC) (main analysis) and three additional statistics (secondary analysis). RESULTS: The adult population included 6,224,316 individuals. The addition of any of the multimorbidity measures to the baseline model increased the explanatory performance for all outcomes and subpopulations. All measurements performed better in the general adult population. The GMA index had higher performance and consistency across subpopulations than the rest of multimorbidity measures. The Charlson index stood out on explaining mortality, whereas measures based on exhaustive definitions of chronic diagnostic (e.g., HCUP and GMA) performed better than those using predefined lists of diagnostics (e.g., QOF or the Karolinska proposal). CONCLUSIONS: The addition of multimorbidity measures to models for explaining healthcare outcomes increase the performance. The GMA index has high performance in explaining relevant healthcare outcomes and may be useful for clinical practice, resource planning, and public health research.

What lies beneath: a retrospective, population-based cohort study investigating clinical and resource-use characteristics of institutionalized older people in Catalonia.

BACKGROUND: Planning population care in a specific health care setting requires deep knowledge of the clinical characteristics of the target care recipients, which tend to be country specific. Our area virtually lacks any descriptive, far-reaching publications about institutionalized older people (IOP). We aimed to investigate the demographic and clinical characteristics of institutionalized older people (IOP) ≥65 years old and compare them with those of the rest of the population of the same age. METHODS: Retrospective analysis (total cohort approach) of clinical and resource-use characteristics of IOP and non-IOP older than 65 years in Catalonia (North-East Spain). Variables analysed included age and sex, diagnoses, morbidity burden-using Adjusted Morbidity Groups (GMA, Grupos de Morbilidad Ajustada)-, mortality, use of resources, and medications taken. All data were obtained from the administrative database of the local healthcare system. RESULTS: This study included 93,038, 78,458, 68,545 and 67,456 IOP from 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2017, respectively. In this interval, an increase in median age (83 vs. 87 years), in women (68.64% vs. 72.11%) and in annual mortality (11.74% vs. 20.46%) was observed. Compared with non-IOP (p < 0.001 in all comparisons), IOP showed a higher annual mortality (20.46% vs. 3.13%), a larger number of chronic diseases (specially dementia: 46.47% vs. 4.58%), higher multimorbidity (15.2% vs. 4.2% with GMA of maximum complexity), and annual admissions to acute care (47.6% vs. 27.7%) and skilled nursing facilities (27.8% vs. 7.4%), mean length of hospital stay (10.0 vs. 7.2 days) and mean of medications taken (11.7 vs. 8.0). CONCLUSIONS: There is a growing gap between the clinical and demographic characteristics of age-matched IOP and non-IOP, which overlaps with a higher mortality rate of IOP. The profile of resources utilization of IOP compared with non-IOP strongly suggests a deficiency of preventive actions and stresses the need to rethink the care model for IOP from a social and health care perspective.

Health Outcomes from Home Hospitalization: Multisource Predictive Modeling.

BACKGROUND: Home hospitalization is widely accepted as a cost-effective alternative to conventional hospitalization for selected patients. A recent analysis of the home hospitalization and early discharge (HH/ED) program at Hospital Clínic de Barcelona over a 10-year period demonstrated high levels of acceptance by patients and professionals, as well as health value-based generation at the provider and health-system levels. However, health risk assessment was identified as an unmet need with the potential to enhance clinical decision making. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to generate and assess predictive models of mortality and in-hospital admission at entry and at HH/ED discharge. METHODS: Predictive modeling of mortality and in-hospital admission was done in 2 different scenarios: at entry into the HH/ED program and at discharge, from January 2009 to December 2015. Multisource predictive variables, including standard clinical data, patients' functional features, and population health risk assessment, were considered. RESULTS: We studied 1925 HH/ED patients by applying a random forest classifier, as it showed the best performance. Average results of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC; sensitivity/specificity) for the prediction of mortality were 0.88 (0.81/0.76) and 0.89 (0.81/0.81) at entry and at home hospitalization discharge, respectively; the AUROC (sensitivity/specificity) values for in-hospital admission were 0.71 (0.67/0.64) and 0.70 (0.71/0.61) at entry and at home hospitalization discharge, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The results showed potential for feeding clinical decision support systems aimed at supporting health professionals for inclusion of candidates into the HH/ED program, and have the capacity to guide transitions toward community-based care at HH discharge.

[Clinical validation of 2 morbidity groups in the primary care setting]. / Validación clínica de 2 agrupadores de morbilidad en el ámbito de atención primaria.

INTRODUCTION: Adjusted Morbidity Groups (GMAs) and the Clinical Risk Groups (CRGs) are population morbidity based stratification tools which classify patients into mutually exclusive categories. OBJETIVE: To compare the stratification provided by the GMAs, CRGs and that carried out by the evaluators according to the levels of complexity. DESIGN: Random sample stratified by morbidity risk. LOCATION: Catalonia. PARTICIPANTS: Forty paired general practitioners in the primary care, matched pairs. INTERVENTIONS: Each pair of evaluators had to review 25 clinical records. MAIN OUTPUTS: The concordance by evaluators, and between the evaluators and the results obtained by the 2 morbidity tools were evaluated according to the kappa index, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predicted values. RESULTS: The concordance between general practitioners pairs was around the kappa value 0.75 (mean value=0.67), between the GMA and the evaluators was similar (mean value=0.63), and higher than for the CRG (mean value=0.35). The general practitioners gave a score of 7.5 over 10 to both tools, although for the most complex strata, according to the professionals' assignment, the GMA obtained better scores than the CRGs. The professionals preferred the GMAs over the CRGs. These differences increased with the complexity level of the patients according to clinical criteria. Overall, less than 2% of serious classification errors were found by both groupers. CONCLUSION: The evaluators considered that both grouping systems classified the studied population satisfactorily, although the GMAs showed a better performance for more complex strata. In addition, the clinical raters preferred the GMAs in most cases.

Socioeconomic status, life expectancy and mortality in a universal healthcare setting: An individual-level analysis of >6 million Catalan residents.

We evaluated the association between individual-level socioeconomic status (SES), life expectancy, and mortality, in adult men and women from the general population living in Catalonia, a universal healthcare coverage setting. We used the Catalan Health Surveillance System database, which includes individual-level information on sociodemographic characteristics and mortality for all residents of Catalonia (Spain). We categorized individuals as high, medium, low or very low SES based on annual personal income and welfare receipt. We used 2016 mortality data to estimate life expectancy at age 18, and the probability of death by age, sex and SES categories. We followed a total of 6,027,424 Catalan residents in 2016. Men and women of very low SES had 12.0 and 9.4 years lower life expectancy compared to men and women of high SES, respectively. Low SES was also strongly associated with mortality in both men and women of any age. In the entire adult population of Catalonia, despite the availability of universal, high quality healthcare coverage, low SES is associated with lower life expectancy and higher mortality. Solutions to these large inequalities may combine tailored health promotion and management interventions, with solutions coming from outside of the health sector.

Evaluation of integrated care services in Catalonia: population-based and service-based real-life deployment protocols.

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive assessment of integrated care deployment constitutes a major challenge to ensure quality, sustainability and transferability of both healthcare policies and services in the transition toward a coordinated service delivery scenario. To this end, the manuscript articulates four different protocols aiming at assessing large-scale implementation of integrated care, which are being developed within the umbrella of the regional project Nextcare (2016-2019), undertaken to foster innovation in technologically-supported services for chronic multimorbid patients in Catalonia (ES) (7.5 M inhabitants). Whereas one of the assessment protocols is designed to evaluate population-based deployment of care coordination at regional level during the period 2011-2017, the other three are service-based protocols addressing: i) Home hospitalization; ii) Prehabilitation for major surgery; and, iii) Community-based interventions for frail elderly chronic patients. All three services have demonstrated efficacy and potential for health value generation. They reflect different implementation maturity levels. While full coverage of the entire urban health district of Barcelona-Esquerra (520 k inhabitants) is the main aim of home hospitalization, demonstration of sustainability at Hospital Clinic of Barcelona constitutes the core goal of the prehabilitation service. Likewise, full coverage of integrated care services addressed to frail chronic patients is aimed at the city of Badalona (216 k inhabitants). METHODS: The population-based analysis, as well as the three service-based protocols, follow observational and experimental study designs using a non-randomized intervention group (integrated care) compared with a control group (usual care) with a propensity score matching method. Evaluation of cost-effectiveness of the interventions using a Quadruple aim approach is a central outcome in all protocols. Moreover, multi-criteria decision analysis is explored as an innovative method for health delivery assessment. The following additional dimensions will also be addressed: i) Determinants of sustainability and scalability of the services; ii) Assessment of the technological support; iii) Enhanced health risk assessment; and, iv) Factors modulating service transferability. DISCUSSION: The current study offers a unique opportunity to undertake a comprehensive assessment of integrated care fostering deployment of services at regional level. The study outcomes will contribute refining service workflows, improving health risk assessment and generating recommendations for service selection. TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03130283 (date released 04/06/2018), NCT03768050 (date released 12/05/2018), NCT03767387 (date released 12/05/2018).

[Validity of adjusted morbidity groups with respect to clinical risk groups in the field of primary care]. / Validez de los grupos de morbilidad ajustados respecto a los clinical risk groups en el ámbito de la atención primaria.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the performance in terms of goodness of fit and explanatory power of 2morbidity groupers in primary care (PC): adjusted morbidity groups (AMG) and clinical risk groups (CRG). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. LOCATION: PC in the Catalan Institute for the Health (CIH), Catalonia, Spain. PARTICIPANTS: Population allocated in primary care centers of the CIH for the year 2014. MAIN MEASUREMENTS: Three indicators of interest are analyzed such as urgent hospitalization, number of visits and spending in pharmacy. A stratified analysis by centers is applied adjusting generalized lineal models from the variables age, sex and morbidity grouping to explain each one of the 3variables of interest. The statistical measures to analyze the performance of the different models applied are the Akaike index, the Bayes index and the pseudo-variability explained by deviance change. RESULTS: The results show that in the area of the primary care the explanatory power of the AMGs is higher to that offered by the CRGs, especially for the case of the visits and the pharmacy. CONCLUSIONS: The performance of GMAs in the area of the CIH PC is higher than that shown by the CRGs.

Challenges of evaluating chronic heart failure and acute heart failure events in research studies using large health care databases.

Epidemiological studies on heart failure (HF) using large health care databases are becoming increasingly frequent, as they represent an invaluable opportunity to characterize the importance and risk factors of HF from a population perspective. Nevertheless, because of its complex diagnosis and natural history, the heterogeneous use of the relevant terminology in routine clinical practice, and the limitations of some disease coding systems, HF can be a challenging condition to assess using large health care databases as the main source of information. In this narrative review, we discuss some of the challenges that researchers may face, with a special focus on the identification and validation of chronic HF cases and acute HF decompensations. For each of these challenges, we present some potential solutions inspired by the literature and/or based on our research experience, aimed at increasing the internal validity of research and at informing its interpretation. We also discuss future directions on the field, presenting constructive recommendations aimed at facilitating the conduct of valid epidemiological studies on HF in the coming years.

Epidemiology of NMOSD in Catalonia: Influence of the new 2015 criteria in incidence and prevalence estimates.

BACKGROUND: Population-based studies on neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (NMOSD) are limited, and it is unclear whether the rates have changed with the implementation of the new 2015 criteria. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the incidence and prevalence of NMOSD in Catalonia (Spain), using both the 2006 and the 2015 criteria. METHODS: In this clinic-based retrospective study, patients diagnosed with NMOSD between 2006 and 2015 were identified using multiple sources, including direct contact to all Catalan hospitals, identification of cases through the Catalan Health Surveillance System, and registry of antibodies to aquaporin-4 (AQP4-IgG) and myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG-IgG) in a reference laboratory. The incidence rate was calculated for the period 1 January 2006-1 January 2016 and prevalence for the date 1 January 2016. RESULTS: We identified 74 patients (by the 2015 criteria). Most patients were Caucasian (81%), and female (76%) with a median age at disease onset of 42 years (range, 10-76 years). In total, 54 (73%) patients were positive for AQP4-IgG, 11 (15%) double-seronegative, and 9 (12%) MOG-IgG-positive. Rates of incidence and prevalence (0.63/1,000,000 person-years and 0.89/100,000, respectively) were 1.5-fold higher than those reported by the 2006 criteria. Lowest rates were seen in children and elder people and highest in women and middle-aged people (40-59 years). The female predominance was lost in incident AQP4-IgG-seronegative children and AQP4-IgG-positive elder people. MOG-IgG and double-seronegativity contributed similarly but did not influence the long-term outcome. CONCLUSION: The new criteria increase the estimates, but NMOSD remains as a rare disease. The differences in age- and sex-specific estimates highlight the importance of the serologic classification.

Risky Alcohol Use: The Impact on Health Service Use.

OBJECTIVE: To examine health services use on the basis of alcohol consumption. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out on patients visiting the Primary Health Care (PHC) settings in Catalonia during 2011 and 2012; these patients had a history of alcohol consumption. Information about outpatient visits in the PHC setting, hospitalizations, specialists' visits and emergency room visits for the year 2013 was obtained from 2 databases (the Information System for the Development of Research in PHC and the Catalan Health Surveillance System). Risky drinkers were defined as those who consumed more than 280 g per week for men or more than 170 g per week for women, or any amount of alcohol while being involved in a high risk work activity, or taking medication that significantly interferes with alcohol or when being pregnant. Binge drinkers (> 60 g in men or > 50 g in women in a short amount of time more than once a month) were also considered risky drinkers. RESULTS: A total of 606,948 patients reported consuming alcohol (of which 10.5% were risky drinkers). Risky drinkers were more likely to be admitted to hospitals or emergency departments (range of ORs 1.08-1.18) compared to light drinkers. Male risky drinkers used fewer PHC services than male light drinkers (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.87-0.92). In general, risky alcohol users used services more and had longer hospital stays. When stratifying by socioeconomic level of the residential area, we found that risky drinking failed significance, while current or past cigarette smoking was associated with higher healthcare use. CONCLUSIONS: Risky drinkers use more expensive services, such as hospitals and emergency rooms, but not PHC services, which may suggest that prevention strategies and alcohol interventions should also be implemented in those settings.

Alcohol, tobacco and health care costs: a population-wide cohort study (n = 606 947 patients) of current drinkers based on medical and administrative health records from Catalonia.

Background: Most cost of illness studies are based on models where information on exposure is combined with risk information from meta-analyses, and the resulting attributable fractions are applied to the number of cases. Methods: This study presents data on alcohol and tobacco use for 2011 and 2012 obtained from a routine medical practice in Catalonia of 606 947 patients, 18 years of age and older, as compared with health care costs for 2013 (all costs from the public health care system: primary health care visits, hospital admissions, laboratory and medical tests, outpatient visits to specialists, emergency department visits and pharmacy expenses). Quasi-Poisson regressions were used to assess the association between alcohol consumption and smoking status and health care costs (adjusted for age and socio-economic status). Results: Resulting health care costs per person per year amounted to 1290 Euros in 2013, and were 20.1% higher for men than for women. Sex, alcohol consumption, tobacco use and socio-economic status were all associated with health care costs. In particular, alcohol consumption had a positive dose-response association with health care costs. Similarly, both smokers and former smokers had higher health care costs than did people who never smoked. Conclusions: Alcohol and tobacco use had modest and large impacts respectively on health care costs, confirming the results of previous ecological modelling analyses. Reductions of alcohol consumption and smoking through public policies and via early identification and brief interventions would likely be associated with reductions in health care costs.