Epidemiological impact of Neisseria gonorrhoeae and Chlamydia trachomatis screening in men having sex with men: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: The impact of the systematic screening of Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) and Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) in men having sex with men (MSM) on these pathogens' epidemiology remains unclear. We conducted a modelling study to analyse this impact in French MSM. METHODS: We modelled NG and CT transmission using a site-specific deterministic compartmental model. We calibrated NG and CT prevalence at baseline using results from MSM enrolled in the Dat'AIDS cohort. The baseline scenario was based on 1 million MSM, 40 000 of whom were tested every 90 days and 960 000 every 200 days. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) at steady state were simulated for NG, CT, NG and/or CT infections, for different combinations of tested sites, testing frequency and numbers of frequently tested patients. RESULTS: The observed prevalence rate was 11.0%, 10.5% and 19.1% for NG, CT and NG and/or CT infections. The baseline incidence rate was estimated at 138.2 per year per 100 individuals (/100PY), 86.8/100PY and 225.0/100PY for NG, CT and NG and/or CT infections. Systematically testing anal, pharyngeal and urethral sites at the same time reduced incidence by 14%, 23% and 18% (IRR: 0.86, 0.77 and 0.82) for NG, CT and NG and/or CT infections. Reducing the screening interval to 60 days in frequently tested patients reduced incidence by 20%, 29% and 24% (IRR: 0.80, 0.71 and 0.76) for NG, CT and NG and/or CT infections. Increasing the number of frequently tested patients to 200 000 reduced incidence by 29%, 40% and 33% (IRR: 0.71, 0.60 and 0.67) for NG, CT and NG and/or CT infections. No realistic scenario could decrease pathogens' incidence by more than 50%. CONCLUSIONS: To curb the epidemic of NG and CT in MSM, it would not only be necessary to drastically increase screening, but also to add other combined interventions.

Proactive home-based malaria management in rural communities of Bassar Health District in northern Togo from 2014 to 2017: PECADOM + , a pilot experiment.

BACKGROUND: Togo's National Malaria Control Programme has initiated an active home-based malaria management model for all age groups in rural areas of Bassar Health District. This report describes the model, reports its main results, and determines the factors associated with positive rapid diagnostic test results. METHODS: From 2014 to 2017, in three peripheral care units of Bassar Health District (Binaparba, Nangbani, and Baghan), community health workers visited residents' homes weekly to identify patients with malaria symptoms, perform rapid diagnostic tests in symptomatic patients, and give medication to positive cases. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to determine the factors associated with positive tests. RESULTS: The study covered 11,337 people (817 in 2014, 1804 in 2015, 2638 in 2016, and 6078 in 2017). The overall mean age was 18 years (95% CI 5-29; min-max: 0-112 years). The median age was 10 years (SD: 16.9). The proportions of people tested positive were 75.3% in Binaparba, 77.4% in Nangbani, and 56.6% in Baghan. The 5-10 age group was the most affected category (24.2% positive tests). Positive tests were more frequent during the rainy than during the dry season (62 vs. 38%) and the probability of positive test was 1.76 times higher during the rainy than during the dry season (adjusted OR = 1.74; 95% CI 1.60-1.90). A fever (37.5 °C or higher) increased significantly the probability of positive test (adjusted OR = 2.19; 95% CI 1.89-2.54). The risk of positive test was 1.89 times higher in passive than in active malaria detection (adjusted OR = 1.89; 95% CI 1.73-2.0). CONCLUSIONS: This novel experimental community and home-based malaria management in Togo suggested that active detection of malaria cases is feasible within 24 h, which allows rapid treatments before progression to often-fatal complications. This PECADOM + program will help Togo's National Malaria Control Programme reduce malaria morbidity and mortality in remote and hard-to-reach communities.

Effectiveness of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in three regions of Togo: a population-based longitudinal study from 2013 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: In 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) in areas of high seasonal transmission. Though implemented since 2013, the effectiveness of SMC in Togo was never evaluated. METHODS: This study concerned routine data from 2013 to 2020 mass SMC campaigns for children under five in all health facilities of three Regions of Togo. Treatment coverage, reasons for non-treatment, and SMC-attributable adverse reactions were analysed per year and treatment round. Random effect logistic models estimated SMC effectiveness per health district, year, and treatment round. RESULTS: The overall coverage was 98% (7,971,877 doses for 8,129,668 children). Contraindication was the main reason for non-administration. Over the study period, confirmed malaria cases decreased from 11,269 (1st round of 2016) to 1395 (4th round of 2020). Only 2,398 adverse reactions were reported (prevalence: 3/10,000), but no severe Lyell syndrome or Stevens-Johnson-type skin reaction. Compared to 2016, malaria prevalence decrease was estimated at 22.6% in 2017 (p < 0.001) and 75% in 2020 (p < 0.001). SMC effectiveness ranged from 76.6% (2nd round) to 96.2% (4th round) comparison with the 1st round. CONCLUSIONS: SMC reduced significantly malaria cases among children under five. The results reassure all actors and call for effort intensification to reach the WHO goals for 2030.

Seasonality of confirmed malaria cases from 2008 to 2017 in Togo: a time series analysis by health district and target group.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to assess the seasonality of confirmed malaria cases in Togo and to provide new indicators of malaria seasonality to the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP). METHODS: Aggregated data of confirmed malaria cases were collected monthly from 2008 to 2017 by the Togo's NMCP and stratified by health district and according to three target groups: children < 5 years old, children ≥ 5 years old and adults, and pregnant women. Time series analysis was carried out for each target group and health district. Seasonal decomposition was used to assess the seasonality of confirmed malaria cases. Maximum and minimum seasonal indices, their corresponding months, and the ratio of maximum/minimum seasonal indices reflecting the importance of malaria transmission, were provided by health district and target group. RESULTS: From 2008 to 2017, 7,951,757 malaria cases were reported in Togo. Children < 5 years old, children ≥ 5 years old and adults, and pregnant women represented 37.1%, 57.7% and 5.2% of the confirmed malaria cases, respectively. The maximum seasonal indices were observed during or shortly after a rainy season and the minimum seasonal indices during the dry season between January and April in particular. In children < 5 years old, the ratio of maximum/minimum seasonal indices was higher in the north, suggesting a higher seasonal malaria transmission, than in the south of Togo. This is also observed in the other two groups but to a lesser extent. CONCLUSIONS: This study contributes to a better understanding of malaria seasonality in Togo. The indicators of malaria seasonality could allow for more accurate forecasting in malaria interventions and supply planning throughout the year.

LONG-TERM INCIDENCE AND RISK FACTORS OF OCULAR HYPERTENSION FOLLOWING DEXAMETHASONE-IMPLANT INJECTIONS: THE SAFODEX-2 STUDY.

PURPOSE: To analyze the incidence, risk factors, and time to onset of ocular hypertension (OHT) after intravitreal injections (IVI) of dexamethasone implant and to evaluate the long-term cumulative probability of intraocular pressure elevation. METHODS: Eyes of patients having received at least one dexamethasone implant IVI between October 2010 and February 2015 were included in the present study. Ocular hypertension was defined as intraocular pressure > 25 mmHg and/or an increase of 10 mmHg over the follow-up period compared with baseline intraocular pressure. RESULTS: Four hundred ninety-four eyes were studied in 410 patients. For a total of 1,371 IVI, the incidence of OHT was 32.6% in the study eyes with a mean follow-up period of 30 months (3-62.5) and a median follow-up of 29 months. Pressure-lowering treatment was introduced for 36.9% of eyes. Topical treatment alone was sufficient to manage OHT in 97%. Young age, male sex, uveitis and retinal vein occlusion, and glaucoma treated with a double- or triple-combination topical pressure-lowering medication were found to be risk factors for OHT. The incidence of OHT did not change with an increase in the number of IVI, and there was no cumulative effect, defining by an increase of the incidence of OHT in patients after repeated IVI (P = 0.248). CONCLUSION: This study confirmed that OHT is of moderate incidence, transient, controlled by topical treatment and provides data on the long-term cumulative probability of intraocular pressure elevation in a large cohort of eyes treated with dexamethasone implant IVI. Repeat injections of dexamethasone implant neither increase nor decrease the risk of OHT.

UVEITIS TREATED WITH DEXAMETHASONE IMPLANT.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the real-life efficacy and safety of the intravitreal dexamethasone implant in uveitis. METHODS: This retrospective observational multicentric study included 152 eyes treated exclusively by 358 dexamethasone implant injections. The main outcome measures included change in the best-corrected visual acuity, central macular thickness, and vitreous haze score. RESULTS: Patients were treated with dexamethasone implant for macular edema (51.3%), vitritis with macular edema (40.1%), vitritis (5.3%), and other causes (3.3%). The mean duration of follow-up was 19.0 months. The mean gain in best-corrected visual acuity during follow-up was +12.1 letters. An improvement in best-corrected visual acuity ≥5, 10, and 15 letters was found in 64.5, 50.7, and 35.5% of cases, respectively. 59.7% of eyes with macular edema at baseline were found to be anatomical responders. Vitritis resolution (vitreous haze = 0+) was obtained in 81.4% of cases. Ocular hypertension (intraocular pressure ≥25 mmHg and/or gain ≥10 mmHg from baseline) occurred in 28.3% of patients. No filtering surgery/laser therapy was required. A total of 40.2% of phakic subjects underwent cataract surgery on average 11.2 months after the first injection. CONCLUSION: This study confirms the efficacy and safety of the dexamethasone implant in noninfectious uveitis. Cataract and ocular hypertension were not uncommon but easily manageable.

Optimizing Strategies for Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae Screening in Men Who Have Sex With Men: A Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: International guidelines recommend the systematic screening for Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) and Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) infections in all men who have sex with men (MSM) who have engaged in unprotected sex. However, the optimal screening strategy remains unclear. We developed a modeling approach to optimize NG/CT screening strategy in MSM. METHODS: A compartmental model of NG/CT screening and infection was implemented. NG/CT anal, pharyngeal, and urine (APU) samples from MSM attending the sexually transmitted infections clinic were used to estimate the screening rate, prevalence, and incidence in a base case scenario. Different screening strategies (scenarios; S) were then evaluated: APU samples every 12 months (S1); APU samples every 3 months (S2); APU samples every 6 months (S3); anal and pharyngeal (AP) samples every 6 months (S4); and AP samples every 3 months (S5). RESULTS: We analyzed 2973 triplet APU samples from 1255 patients. We observed 485 NG and 379 CT diagnoses. NG/CT prevalence and incidence estimates were 12.0/11.1% and 40/29 per 100 person-years, respectively, in the base case scenario. As compared to S2, the reference strategy, the proportions of missed NG/CT diagnoses were 42.0/41.2% with S1, 21.8/22.5% with S3, 25.6/28.3% with S4, and 6.3/10.5% with S5, respectively. As compared to S2, S1 reduced the cost of the analysis by 74%, S3 by 50%, S4 by 66%, and S5 by 33%. The numbers needed to screen for catching up the missed NG/CT diagnoses were 49/67 with S1, 62/82 with S3, 71/87 with S4, and 143/118 with S5. CONCLUSIONS: S5 appears to be the best strategy, missing only 6.3/10.5% of NG/CT diagnoses, for a cost reduction of 33%.

Implementation of a malaria sentinel surveillance system in Togo: a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: In Togo, the National Malaria Control Programme, in collaboration with the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, has implemented a pilot study for malaria sentinel surveillance since 2017, which consists of collecting information in real time and analysing this information for decision-making. The first 20 months of malaria morbidity and mortality trends, and malaria case management in health facilities included in the surveillance were assessed. METHODS: Since July 2017, 16 health facilities called sentinel sites, 4 hospitals and 12 peripheral care units located in 2 epidemiologically different health regions, have provided weekly data on malaria morbidity and mortality for the following 3 target groups: < 5-years-old children, ≥ 5-years-old children and adults, and pregnant women. Data from week 29 in 2017 to week 13 in 2019 were analysed. RESULTS: Each sentinel site provided complete data and the median time to data entry was 4 days. The number of confirmed malaria cases increased during the rainy seasons both in children under 5 years old and in children over 5 years old and adults. Malaria-related deaths occurred mainly in children under 5 years old and increased during the rainy seasons. The mean percentage of tested cases for malaria among suspected malaria cases was 99.0%. The mean percentage of uncomplicated malaria cases handled in accordance with national guidelines was 99.4%. The mean percentage of severe malaria cases detected in peripheral care units that were referred to a hospital was 100.0%. Rapid diagnostic tests and artemisinin-based combination therapies were out of stock several times, mainly at the beginning and end of the year. No hospital was out of stock of injectable artesunate or injectable artemether. CONCLUSIONS: These indicators showed good management of malaria cases in the sentinel sites. Real-time availability of data requires a good follow-up of data entry on the online platform. The management of input stocks and the promptness of data need to be improved to meet the objectives of this malaria sentinel surveillance system.

Influenza surveillance during the 2009-2010, 2010-2011, 2011-2012, and 2012-2013 seasons in Algeria.

We report the activity and circulation of influenza viruses in Algeria during four influenza seasons, from a national surveillance study carried out from 2009-2010 to 2012-2013. A total of 2766 samples from in- and outpatients, with no age restriction, were collected. The overall proportion of specimens that tested influenza positive was 46.0%. Overall, 96.6% of influenza A viruses were subtyped, and A/H1 subtypes accounted for 57.3% of influenza A viruses. Influenza A/H1 and A/H3 virus subtypes cocirculated in 2009-2010. In 2010-2011, a high proportion of type B viruses (66.2%) was observed. The subtype H3N2 was identified in 99% of cases typed in 2011-2012. Influenza A/H3N2 and B virus cocirculated in 2012-2013. A remarkably low influenza vaccination rate of 2.4% was observed among all age groups. Antibiotics were prescribed for 926 (41.3%) patients, and no difference was observed between patients with confirmed influenza and patients with influenza-like illness not related to influenza. The burden of influenza is largely undocumented in Algeria and strategies to expand this surveillance across the country are needed. Strategies to increase vaccination coverage are warranted to control and prevent influenza in individuals at risk of complications as well as in the general population.

EVALUATION OF OBSTRUCTIVE SLEEP APNEA SYNDROME AS A RISK FACTOR FOR DIABETIC MACULAR EDEMA IN PATIENTS WITH TYPE II DIABETES.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the association between obstructive sleep apnea and diabetic macular edema (DME) in patients with Type II diabetes, using the apnea-hypopnea index and other nocturnal hypoxemia parameters. METHODS: This cross-sectional, case-control study included 99 patients with Type II diabetes: the first group included patients with DME (DME+ group) and the second patients without DME (DME- group). Polysomnography was performed in all patients. The two groups were compared, and the risk factors were studied using logistic regression. RESULTS: The DME+ group comprised 38 patients, and the DME- group comprised 61 patients, aged a mean 68.8 years and 66.3 years (P = 0.27), respectively; mean body mass index was 29.7 and 30.9 (P = 0.16), respectively. The mean apnea-hypopnea index was significantly higher in the DME+ group (43.95 [13.5-87.3]) than in the DME- group (35.18 [3.55-90.7]) (P = 0.034). Patients with DME had more severe obstructive sleep apnea (apnea-hypopnea index >30) than the others: 71% versus 50.8% (P = 0.049). Cumulative time of SPO2 below 90% (CT90%) was independently associated with DME after adjusting for confounding factors, whereas there was no difference between the oxygen desaturation index and minimum O2 saturation. CONCLUSION: Severe obstructive sleep apnea (apnea-hypopnea index >30) and parameters of nocturnal hypoxemia (cumulative time of SPO2 below 90%) are associated with DME.

SAFETY OF INTRAVITREAL DEXAMETHASONE IMPLANT (OZURDEX): The SAFODEX study. Incidence and Risk Factors of Ocular Hypertension.

PURPOSE: To analyze the incidence, risk factors, and time course of intraocular pressure elevation after intravitreal dexamethasone implant (Ozurdex). METHODS: The medical charts of 421 consecutive eyes (361 patients) receiving one or more Ozurdex implant between October 2010 and February 2015 were reviewed retrospectively. Ocular hypertension was defined as intraocular pressure of at least 25 mmHg or an increase of at least 10 mmHg from baseline. The main indications for treatment were retinal vein occlusion (34%), diabetic macular edema (30%), postsurgical macular edema (17%), uveitis (14%), and other etiologies (5%). RESULTS: Among 1,000 intravitreal injections, ocular hypertension was recorded for 28.5% of injected eyes over a mean follow-up period of 16.8 months (3-55). Intraocular pressure-lowering medication was required for 31% of eyes. Only three eyes with preexisting glaucoma required filtering surgery to manage postinjection intraocular pressure elevation. Early retreatment between the third and fourth month does not increase the risk of intraocular pressure elevation. Younger age, male sex, Type 1 diabetes, preexisting glaucoma treated with dual or triple therapy, and a history of retinal vein occlusion or uveitis were significant risk factors for ocular hypertension after dexamethasone implant injection (P < 0.05 for all the above). CONCLUSION: Episodes of ocular hypertension after Ozurdex implant were generally transient and successfully managed with topical treatment. An analysis of the risk factors may help to determine the risk-benefit ratio for individual patients treated with dexamethasone implants.

REAL-LIFE STUDY IN DIABETIC MACULAR EDEMA TREATED WITH DEXAMETHASONE IMPLANT: The Reldex Study.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of intravitreal implant of dexamethasone (Ozurdex) in diabetic macular edema in real-life practice. METHODS: In this bicentric retrospective study, the authors reviewed 128 eyes of 89 patients. Main outcome measures included changes in best-corrected visual acuity, central macular thickness, time to retreatment, and incidence of adverse effects. Linear mixed-effects models were used to study changes in best-corrected visual acuity and central macular thickness over the 3-year follow-up. RESULTS: Best-corrected visual acuity increased by a mean of 3.6 letters at Month 2 (P = 0.005), 4.2 letters at Month 12 (P = 0.006), 5.3 at Month 24 (P = 0.007), and 9.5 letters at Month 36 (P = 0.023). The proportion of eyes achieving at least a 15-letter improvement from baseline was 25.4% at Month 36. Central macular thickness decreased from 451 µm to 289 µm at Month 2 (P < 0.001), 370 µm at Month 12 (P < 0.001), 377 µm at Month 24 (P = 0.004), and 280 µm at Month 36 (P = 0.001). A mean of 3.6 injections were administered over the 3-year follow-up. Ten percent of eyes developed a transient increase in intraocular pressure (IOP ≥ 25 mmHg), and cataract was removed from 47% of phakic eyes. CONCLUSION: This large case series study showed favorable 3-year outcomes when using Ozurdex to treat diabetic macular edema. Intravitreal Ozurdex provides substantial long-term benefits in the treatment of diabetic macular edema in real-life.

TOLERANCE OF INTRAVITREAL DEXAMETHASONE IMPLANTS IN PATIENTS WITH OCULAR HYPERTENSION OR OPEN-ANGLE GLAUCOMA.

PURPOSE: Evaluate the pressure tolerance of dexamethasone implants in open-angle glaucoma (OAG+) patients and ocular hypertension (OHT+) patients compared with nonglaucomatous and nonhypertensive patients. METHODS: Retrospective observational 2-center, controlled study including 100 patients treated with intravitreal injections of dexamethasone, divided into 2 groups: Group 1, OAG+/OHT+ (n = 50), and Group 2, OAG-/OHT- (n = 50), matched for age and disease. Intraocular pressure (IOP) and hypotensive treatment were evaluated initially, at 8 days, and every month for 6 months after intravitreal treatment. The primary endpoint was IOP increase greater than 10 mmHg. RESULTS: Thirty-four percent of glaucomatous patients experienced a transient IOP increase greater than 10 mmHg versus 16% in the OAG-/OHT- group (P = 0.06). Intraocular pressure greater than 25 mmHg was recorded early on Day 8 in 6% of the OAG+ patients versus 2% of the OAG- patients. Fifty-four percent of the glaucoma patients increased their treatment, and hypotensive treatment was initiated in 38% of the OAG- patients (P = 0.1). Filtering surgery was only required in the OAG+/OHT+ group (6% versus 0%), particularly in dual-therapy and triple-therapy patients, who had a higher risk of filtering surgery (P = 0.008). CONCLUSION: Half of the OAG+ and OHT+ patients needed an add-on treatment, with early onset beginning on Day 8 in 6%. This emphasizes the need for IOP monitoring during treatment, especially for OAG+/OHT+ patients.

Exploring malaria prediction models in Togo: a time series forecasting by health district and target group.

OBJECTIVES: Integrating malaria prediction models into malaria control strategies can help to anticipate the response to seasonal epidemics. This study aimed to explore the possibility of using routine malaria data and satellite-derived climate data to forecast malaria cases in Togo. METHODS: Generalised additive (mixed) models were developed to forecast the monthly number of malaria cases in 40 health districts and three target groups. Routinely collected malaria data from 2013 to 2016 and meteorological and vegetation data with a time lag of 1 or 2 months were used for model training, while the year 2017 was used for model testing. Two methods for selecting lagged meteorological and environmental variables were compared: a first method based on statistical approach ('SA') and a second method based on biological reasoning ('BR'). Both methods were applied to obtain a model per target group and health district and a mixed model per target group and health region with the health district as a random effect. The predictive skills of the four models were compared for each health district and target group. RESULTS: The most selected predictors in the models per district for the 'SA' method were the normalised difference vegetation index, minimum temperature and mean temperature. The 'SA' method provided the most accurate models for the training period, except for some health districts in children ≥5 years old and adults and in pregnant women. The most accurate models for the testing period varied by health district and target group, provided either by the 'SA' method or the 'BR' method. Despite the development of models with four different approaches, the number of malaria cases was inaccurately forecasted. CONCLUSIONS: These models cannot be used as such in malaria control activities in Togo. The use of finer spatial and temporal scales and non-environmental data could improve malaria prediction.

Monitoring monocyte HLA-DR expression and CD4 + T lymphocyte count in dexamethasone-treated severe COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: A 10-day dexamethasone regimen has emerged as the internationally adopted standard-of-care for severe COVID-19 patients. However, the immune response triggered by SARS-CoV-2 infection remains a complex and dynamic phenomenon, leading to various immune profiles and trajectories. The immune status of severe COVID-19 patients following complete dexamethasone treatment has yet to be thoroughly documented. RESULTS: To analyze monocyte HLA-DR expression (mHLA-DR) and CD4 + T lymphocyte count (CD4) in critically ill COVID-19 patients after a dexamethasone course and evaluate their association with 28-day ICU mortality, adult COVID-19 patients (n = 176) with an ICU length of stay of at least 10 days and under dexamethasone treatment were included. Associations between each biomarker value (or in combination) measured at day 10 after ICU admission and 28-day mortality in ICU were evaluated. At day 10, the majority of patients presented decreased values of both parameters. A significant association between low mHLA-DR and 28-day mortality was observed. This association remained significant in a multivariate analysis including age, comorbidities or pre-existing immunosuppression (adjusted Hazard ratio (aHR) = 2.86 [1.30-6.32], p = 0.009). Similar results were obtained with decreased CD4 + T cell count (aHR = 2.10 [1.09-4.04], p = 0.027). When combining these biomarkers, patients with both decreased mHLA-DR and low CD4 presented with an independent and significant elevated risk of 28-day mortality (i.e., 60%, aHR = 4.83 (1.72-13.57), p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: By using standardized immunomonitoring tools available in clinical practice, it is possible to identify a subgroup of patients at high risk of mortality at the end of a 10-day dexamethasone treatment. This emphasizes the significance of integrating immune monitoring into the surveillance of intensive care patients in order to guide further immumodulation approaches.

Estimation of the incubation period of invasive aspergillosis by survival models in acute myeloid leukemia patients.

The duration of the incubation of invasive aspergillosis (IA) remains unknown. The objective of this investigation was to estimate the time interval between aplasia onset and that of IA symptoms in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients. A single-centre prospective survey (2004-2009) included all patients with AML and probable/proven IA. Parametric survival models were fitted to the distribution of the time intervals between aplasia onset and IA. Overall, 53 patients had IA after aplasia, with the median observed time interval between the two being 15 days. Based on log-normal distribution, the median estimated IA incubation period was 14.6 days (95% CI; 12.8-16.5 days).

A statistical model to assess the risk of communicable diseases associated with multiple exposures in healthcare settings.

BACKGROUND: The occurrence of communicable diseases (CD) depends on exposure to contagious persons. The effects of exposure to CD are delayed in time and contagious persons remain contagious for several days during which their contagiousness varies. Moreover when multiple exposures occur, it is difficult to know which exposure is associated with the CD. METHODS: A statistical model at the individual level is presented to estimate the risk of CD to patients, in healthcare settings, with multiple observed exposures to other patients and healthcare workers and unobserved exposures to unobserved or unobservable sources. The model explores the delayed effect of observed exposure, of source contagiousness and of unobserved exposure. It was applied to data on influenza-like illness (ILI) among patients in a university hospital during 3 influenza seasons: from 2004 to 2007. Over a total of 138,411 patients-days of follow-up, 64 incident ILI cases were observed among 21,519 patients at risk of ILI. RESULTS: The ILI risk per 10,000 patients-days associated with observed exposure was about 129.1 (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 84.5, 182.9) and was associated at 72% with exposures to patients or healthcare workers 1 day earlier and at 41% with the 1st day of source contagiousness. The ILI risk associated with unobserved exposure was 0.8 (95% CrI: 0.3, 1.6) per 10,000 patients-days in non-epidemic situation in the community and 4.3 (95% CrI: 0.4, 11.0) in epidemic situation. CONCLUSIONS: The model could be an interesting epidemiological tool to further assess the relative contributions of observed and unobserved exposures to CD risk in healthcare settings.

Stronger Impact of COVID-19 in Nursing Homes of a French Region During the Second Pandemic Wave.

OBJECTIVES: Quantify the effects of characteristics of nursing homes and their surroundings on the spread of COVID-19 outbreaks and assess the changes in resident protection between the first 2 waves (March 1 to July 31 and August 1 to December 31, 2020). DESIGN: An observational study was carried out on data on COVID-19 outbreaks extracted from a database that monitored the spread of the virus in nursing homes. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The study concerned all 937 nursing homes with >10 beds in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region, France. METHODS: The rate of nursing homes with at least 1 outbreak and the cumulative number of deaths were modeled for each wave. RESULTS: During the second (vs the first wave), the proportion of nursing homes that reported at least 1 outbreak was higher (70% vs 56%) and the cumulative number of deaths more than twofold (3348 vs 1590). The outbreak rate was significantly lower in public hospital-associated nursing homes than in private for-profit ones. During the second wave, it was lower in public and private not-for-profit nursing homes than in private for-profit ones. During the first wave, the probability of outbreak and the mean number of deaths increased with the number of beds (P < .001). During the second wave, the probability of outbreak remained stable in >80-bed institutions and, under proportionality assumption, the mean number of deaths was less than expected in >100-bed institutions. The outbreak rate and the cumulative number of deaths increased significantly with the increase in the incidence of hospitalization for COVID-19 in the surrounding populations. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: The outbreak in the nursing homes was stronger during the second than the first wave despite better preparedness and higher availabilities of tests and protective equipment. Solutions for insufficient staffing, inadequate rooming, and suboptimal functioning should be found before future epidemics.

Disclosure of HIV status and adherence to antiretroviral treatment in children and adolescents from Lomé and Abidjan.

Introduction: in Africa, the proportion of minors with AIDS is ever increasing and adherence to treatment protocols is still suboptimal. The study investigated the conditions of HIV status disclosure and adherence to treatment in patients < 19 in two West African cities. Methods: in 2016, thirteen health professionals and four parents filled out questionnaires to identify problems and solutions relative to disclosure of HIV status and adherence to treatment in 208 children and adolescents seen at University Hospitals in Abidjan (Ivory Coast) and Lomé (Togo). Results: medians (extrema) of patients´ ages at start and end of status disclosure process were 10 (8-13) and 15 (13-17.5) years. In 61% of cases, disclosure was made individually after preparation sessions. The main difficulties were: parents´ disapproval, skipped visits, and rarity of psychologists. The solutions proposed were: recruiting more full-time psychologists, improving personnel training, and promoting patients´ "clubs". One out of three respondents was not satisfied with patients´ adherence to treatments. The major reasons were: intake frequencies, frequent omissions, school constraints, adverse effects, and lack of perceived effect. Nevertheless, 94% of the respondents confirmed the existence of support groups, interviews with psychologists, and home visits. To improve adherence, the respondents proposed increasing the number of support groups, sustaining reminder phone calls and home visits, and supporting therapeutic mentoring. Conclusion: despite persisting disclosure and adherence problems, appropriate measures already put into practice still need to be taken further, especially through engaging psychologists, training counsellors, and promoting therapeutic support groups.

Influenza vaccination of healthcare workers in acute-care hospitals: a case-control study of its effect on hospital-acquired influenza among patients.

BACKGROUND: In acute-care hospitals, no evidence of a protective effect of healthcare worker (HCW) vaccination on hospital-acquired influenza (HAI) in patients has been documented. Our study objective was to ascertain the effectiveness of influenza vaccination of HCW on HAI among patients. METHODS: A nested case-control investigation was implemented in a prospective surveillance study of influenza-like illness (ILI) in a tertiary acute-care university hospital. Cases were patients with virologically-confirmed influenza occurring ≥ 72 h after admission, and controls were patients with ILI presenting during hospitalisation with negative influenza results after nasal swab testing. Four controls per case, matched per influenza season (2004-05, 2005-06 and 2006-07), were randomly selected. Univariate and multivariate conditional logistic regression models were fitted to assess factors associated with HAI among patients. RESULTS: In total, among 55 patients analysed, 11 (20%) had laboratory-confirmed HAI. The median HCW vaccination rate in the units was 36%. The median proportion of vaccinated HCW in these units was 11.5% for cases vs. 36.1% for the controls (P = 0.11); 2 (20%) cases and 21 (48%) controls were vaccinated against influenza in the current season (P = 0.16). The proportion of ≥ 35% vaccinated HCW in short-stay units appeared to protect against HAI among patients (odds ratio = 0.07; 95% confidence interval 0.005-0.98), independently of patient age, influenza season and potential influenza source in the units. CONCLUSIONS: Our observational study indicates a shielding effect of more than 35% of vaccinated HCW on HAI among patients in acute-care units. Investigations, such as controlled clinical trials, are needed to validate the benefits of HCW vaccination on HAI incidence in patients.