Insects and recent climate change.

Insects have diversified through more than 450 million y of Earth's changeable climate, yet rapidly shifting patterns of temperature and precipitation now pose novel challenges as they combine with decades of other anthropogenic stressors including the conversion and degradation of land. Here, we consider how insects are responding to recent climate change while summarizing the literature on long-term monitoring of insect populations in the context of climatic fluctuations. Results to date suggest that climate change impacts on insects have the potential to be considerable, even when compared with changes in land use. The importance of climate is illustrated with a case study from the butterflies of Northern California, where we find that population declines have been severe in high-elevation areas removed from the most immediate effects of habitat loss. These results shed light on the complexity of montane-adapted insects responding to changing abiotic conditions. We also consider methodological issues that would improve syntheses of results across long-term insect datasets and highlight directions for future empirical work.

Extreme heterogeneity of population response to climatic variation and the limits of prediction.

Certain general facets of biotic response to climate change, such as shifts in phenology and geographic distribution, are well characterized; however, it is not clear whether the observed similarity of responses across taxa will extend to variation in other population-level processes. We examined population response to climatic variation using long-term incidence data (collected over 42 years) encompassing 149 butterfly species and considerable habitat diversity (10 sites along an elevational gradient from sea level to over 2,700 m in California). Population responses were characterized by extreme heterogeneity that was not attributable to differences in species composition among sites. These results indicate that habitat heterogeneity might be a buffer against climate change and highlight important questions about mechanisms maintaining interpopulation differences in responses to weather. Despite overall heterogeneity of response, population dynamics were accurately predicted by our model for many species at each site. However, the overall correlation between observed and predicted incidence in a cross validation analysis was moderate (Pearson's r = 0.23, SE 0.01), and 97% of observed data fell within the predicted 95% credible intervals. Prediction was most successful for more abundant species as well as for sites with lower annual turnover. Population-level heterogeneity in response to climate variation and the limits of our predictive power highlight the challenges for a future of increasing climatic variability.

Understanding a migratory species in a changing world: climatic effects and demographic declines in the western monarch revealed by four decades of intensive monitoring.

Migratory animals pose unique challenges for conservation biologists, and we have much to learn about how migratory species respond to drivers of global change. Research has cast doubt on the stability of the eastern monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) population in North America, but the western monarchs have not been as intensively examined. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model, sightings of western monarchs over approximately 40 years were investigated using summer flight records from ten sites along an elevational transect in Northern California. Multiple weather variables were examined, including local and regional temperature and precipitation. Population trends from the ten focal sites and a subset of western overwintering sites were compared to summer and overwintering data from the eastern migration. Records showed western overwintering grounds and western breeding grounds had negative trends over time, with declines concentrated early in the breeding season, which were potentially more severe than in the eastern population. Temporal variation in the western monarch also appears to be largely independent of (uncorrelated with) the dynamics in the east. For our focal sites, warmer temperatures had positive effects during winter and spring, and precipitation had a positive effect during spring. These climatic associations add to our understanding of biotic-abiotic interactions in a migratory butterfly, but shifting climatic conditions do not explain the overall, long-term, negative population trajectory observed in our data.

Compounded effects of climate change and habitat alteration shift patterns of butterfly diversity.

Climate change and habitat destruction have been linked to global declines in vertebrate biodiversity, including mammals, amphibians, birds, and fishes. However, invertebrates make up the vast majority of global species richness, and the combined effects of climate change and land use on invertebrates remain poorly understood. Here we present 35 years of data on 159 species of butterflies from 10 sites along an elevational gradient spanning 0-2,775 m in a biodiversity hotspot, the Sierra Nevada Mountains of Northern California. Species richness has declined at half of the sites, with the most severe reductions at the lowest elevations, where habitat destruction is greatest. At higher elevations, we observed clear upward shifts in the elevational ranges of species, consistent with the influence of global warming. Taken together, these long-term data reveal the interacting negative effects of human-induced changes on both the climate and habitat available to butterfly species in California. Furthermore, the decline of ruderal, disturbance-associated species indicates that the traditional focus of conservation efforts on more specialized and less dispersive species should be broadened to include entire faunas when estimating and predicting the effects of pervasive stressors.

Nearby night lighting, rather than sky glow, is associated with habitat selection by a top predator in human-dominated landscapes.

Artificial light at night (ALAN) is increasing in extent and intensity across the globe. It has been shown to interfere with animal sensory systems, orientation and distribution, with the potential to cause significant ecological impacts. We analysed the locations of 102 mountain lions (Puma concolor) in a light-polluted region in California. We modelled their distribution relative to environmental and human-disturbance variables, including upward radiance (nearby lights), zenith brightness (sky glow) and natural illumination from moonlight. We found that mountain lion probability of presence was highly related to upward radiance, that is, related to lights within approximately 500 m. Despite a general pattern of avoidance of locations with high upward radiance, there were large differences in degree of avoidance among individuals. The amount of light from artificial sky glow was not influential when included together with upward radiance in the models, and illumination from moonlight was not influential at all. Our results suggest that changes in visibility associated with lunar cycles and sky glow are less important for mountain lions in their selection of light landscapes than avoiding potential interactions with humans represented by the presence of nearby lights on the ground. This article is part of the theme issue 'Light pollution in complex ecological systems'.