Scaling-up an evidence-based intervention for family carers of people with dementia: Current and future costs and outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: The STrAtegies for RelaTives (START) intervention is effective and cost-effective in supporting family carers of people with dementia. It is currently not available to all eligible carers in England. What would be the impacts on service costs and carer health-related quality of life if START was provided to all eligible carers in England, currently and in future? METHODS: Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness data from a previously conducted randomised controlled trial were combined with current and future projections of numbers of people with newly diagnosed dementia to estimate overall and component costs and health-related quality of life outcomes between 2015 (base year for projections) and 2040. RESULTS: Scaling-up START requires investments increasing annually but would lead to significant savings in health and social care costs. Family carers of people with dementia would experience improvements in mental health and quality of life, with clinical effects lasting at least 6 years. Scaling up the START intervention to eligible carers was estimated to cost £9.4 million in 2020, but these costs would lead to annual savings of £68 million, and total annual quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains of 1247. Although the costs of START would increase to £19.8 million in 2040, savings would rise to £142.7 million and Quality adjusted life years gained to 1883. CONCLUSIONS: Scaling-up START for family carers of people with dementia in England would improve the lives of family carers and reduce public sector costs. Family carers play a vital part in dementia care; evidence-based interventions that help them to maintain this role, such as START, should be available across the country.

Building the health-economic case for scaling up the WHO-HEARTS hypertension control package in low- and middle-income countries.

Generally, hypertension control programs are cost-effective, including in low- and middle-income countries, but country governments and civil society are not likely to support hypertension control programs unless value is demonstrated in terms of public health benefits, budget impact, and value-for-investment for the individual country context. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) established a standard, simplified Global HEARTS approach to hypertension control, including preferred antihypertensive medicines and blood pressure measurement devices. The objective of this study is to report on health economic studies of HEARTS hypertension control package cost (especially medication costs), cost-effectiveness, and budget impact and describe mathematical models designed to translate hypertension control program data into the optimal approach to hypertension care service delivery and financing, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Early results suggest that HEARTS hypertension control interventions are either cost-saving or cost-effective, that the HEARTS package is affordable at between US$ 18-44 per person treated per year, and that antihypertensive medicines could be priced low enough to reach a global standard of an average

En general, los programas de control de la hipertensión son costo-eficaces, incluso en los países de ingresos bajos y medios. Aun así, es poco probable que los gobiernos nacionales y la sociedad civil apoyen los programas de control de la hipertensión a menos que se demuestre su valor en términos de beneficios para la salud pública, impacto presupuestario y valor de la inversión para el contexto individual del país. La Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) y la Organización Panamericana de la Salud (OPS) implementaron la iniciativa HEARTS, un enfoque mundial estandarizado y simplificado para el control de la hipertensión, que incluye los medicamentos antihipertensivos y los dispositivos de medición de la presión arterial de preferencia. El objetivo de este estudio es informar sobre los estudios en el ámbito de la economía de la salud relativos al costo de las medidas de control de la hipertensión previstas en HEARTS (especialmente, de los medicamentos), la costo-efectividad y el impacto presupuestario, así como describir los modelos matemáticos diseñados para traducir los datos de este programa en un enfoque óptimo para la prestación y el financiamiento de los servicios de atención de la hipertensión, especialmente en países de ingresos medianos y bajos. Los primeros resultados indican que las intervenciones de HEARTS para el control de la hipertensión son de bajo costo o costo-eficaces, que el conjunto de medidas HEARTS es asequible, a un precio que oscila entre US$ 18 y US$ 44 al año por paciente tratado, y que los medicamentos antihipertensivos podrían tener un precio lo suficientemente bajo como para alcanzar un estándar medio mundial de

Geralmente, os programas de controle de hipertensão são custo-efetivos, inclusive em países de baixa e média renda, mas os governos dos países e a sociedade civil provavelmente não apoiarão tais programas a menos que demonstrem valor em termos de benefícios à saúde pública, impacto orçamentário e retorno sobre o investimento no contexto individual do país. A Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) e a Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde (OPAS) criaram a Global HEARTS, uma abordagem padrão e simplificada ao controle da hipertensão arterial, que inclui medicamentos anti-hipertensivos preferidos e dispositivos para aferição da pressão arterial preferidos. O objetivo deste estudo é relatar os estudos de economia em saúde que analisaram o custo (especialmente custos de medicamentos), custo-benefício e impacto orçamentário do pacote HEARTS para controle da hipertensão e descrever modelos matemáticos elaborados para traduzir os dados do programa de controle de hipertensão em uma abordagem ideal para a prestação e financiamento de serviços de atenção às pessoas com hipertensão, especialmente em países de baixa e média renda. Os primeiros resultados sugerem que as intervenções HEARTS para controle da hipertensão são de baixo custo ou custo-efetivas, que o pacote HEARTS é acessível (custando de US$ 18 a 44 por pessoa tratada por ano) e que o preço dos medicamentos anti-hipertensivos poderia ser baixo o suficiente para atingir uma média global de

Estimating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on diagnosis and survival of five cancers in Chile from 2020 to 2030: a simulation-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has strained health system capacity worldwide due to a surge of hospital admissions, while mitigation measures have simultaneously reduced patients' access to health care, affecting the diagnosis and treatment of other diseases such as cancer. We estimated the impact of delayed diagnosis on cancer outcomes in Chile using a novel modelling approach to inform policies and planning to mitigate the forthcoming cancer-related health impacts of the pandemic in Chile. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model of five cancers in Chile (breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach) for which reliable data were available, which simulates cancer incidence and progression in a nationally representative virtual population, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities. We calibrated the model to empirical data on monthly detected cases, as well as stage at diagnosis and 5-year net survival. We accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on excess mortality and cancer detection by month during the pandemic, and projected diagnosed cancer cases and outcomes of stage at diagnosis and survival up to 2030. For comparison, we simulated a no COVID-19 scenario in which the impacts of COVID-19 on excess mortality and cancer detection were removed. FINDINGS: Our modelling showed a sharp decrease in the number of diagnosed cancer cases during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a large projected short-term increase in future diagnosed cases. Due to the projected backlog in diagnosis, we estimated that in 2021 there will be an extra 3198 cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1356-5017) diagnosed among the five modelled cancers, an increase of nearly 14% compared with the no COVID-19 scenario, falling to a projected 10% increase in 2022 with 2674 extra cases (1318-4032) diagnosed. As a result of delayed diagnosis, we found a worse stage distribution for detected cancers in 2020-22, which is estimated to lead to 3542 excess cancer deaths (95% UI 2236-4816) in 2022-30, compared with the no COVID-19 scenario, among the five modelled cancers, most of which (3299 deaths, 2151-4431) are projected to occur before 2025. INTERPRETATION: In addition to a large projected surge in diagnosed cancer cases, we found that delays in diagnosis will result in worse cancer stage at presentation, leading to worse survival outcomes. These findings can help to inform surge capacity planning and highlight the importance of ensuring appropriate health system capacity levels to detect and care for the increased cancer cases in the coming years, while maintaining the timeliness and quality of cancer care. Potential delays in treatment and adverse impacts on quality of care, which were not considered in this model, are likely to contribute to even more excess deaths from cancer than projected. FUNDING: Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. TRANSLATIONS: For the Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Interventions to Prevent Hospital Admissions in Long-Term Care Facilities: A Rapid Review of Economic Evidence.

OBJECTIVES: Hospital admissions can be hazardous for older adults, particularly those living in long-term care facilities. Preventing nonessential admissions can be beneficial for this population, as well as reducing demand on health services. This review summarizes the economic evidence surrounding effective interventions to reduce hospital attendances and admissions for people living in long-term care facilities. DESIGN: Rapid review of economic evidence. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: People living in long-term facilities. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, CINAHL, Cochrane CENTRAL, PubMed, and Web of Science on September 20, 2022, and again on January 10, 2023. Full economic evaluations and cost analyses reporting on advanced care planning, goals of care setting, nurse practitioner input, palliative care, influenza vaccinations, and enhancing access to intravenous therapies were eligible. Data were extracted using a prepiloted data extraction form and critically appraised using either the Drummond-Jefferson checklist or an amended NIH Critical Appraisal Tool appended with questions from a critical appraisal checklist for cost analyses. Data were synthesized narratively. RESULTS: We included 7 studies: 3 full economic evaluations and 4 cost analyses. Because of lack of clarity on the underlying study design, we did not include one of the cost analyses in our synthesis. Advanced care planning, a palliative care program, and a high-dose influenza vaccination reported potential cost savings. Economic evidence for a multicomponent intervention and a nurse practitioner model was inconclusive. The overall quality of the evidence varied between studies. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: A number of potentially cost-effective approaches to reduce demand on hospital services from long-term care facilities were identified. However, further economic evaluations are needed to overcome limitations of the current evidence base and offer more confident conclusions.

Projection of the health and economic impacts of Chronic kidney disease in the Chilean population.

BACKGROUND: Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) is a leading public health problem, with substantial burden and economic implications for healthcare systems, mainly due to renal replacement treatment (RRT) for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). The aim of this study is to develop a multistate predictive model to estimate the future burden of CKD in Chile, given the high and rising RRT rates, population ageing, and prevalence of comorbidities contributing to CKD. METHODS: A dynamic stock and flow model was developed to simulate CKD progression in the Chilean population aged 40 years and older, up to the year 2041, adopting the perspective of the Chilean public healthcare system. The model included six states replicating progression of CKD, which was assumed in 1-year cycles and was categorised as slow, medium or fast progression, based on the underlying conditions. We simulated two different treatment scenarios. Only direct costs of treatment were included, and a 3% per year discount rate was applied after the first year. We calibrated the model based on international evidence; the exploration of uncertainty (95% credibility intervals) was undertaken with probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: By the year 2041, there is an expected increase in cases of CKD stages 3a to ESKD, ceteris paribus, from 442,265 (95% UI 441,808-442,722) in 2021 to 735,513 (734,455-736,570) individuals. Direct costs of CKD stages 3a to ESKD would rise from 322.4M GBP (321.7-323.1) in 2021 to 1,038.6M GBP (1,035.5-1,041.8) in 2041. A reduction in the progression rates of the disease by the inclusion of SGLT2 inhibitors and pre-dialysis treatment would decrease the number of individuals worsening to stages 5 and ESKD, thus reducing the total costs of CKD by 214.6M GBP in 2041 to 824.0M GBP (822.7-825.3). CONCLUSIONS: This model can be a useful tool for healthcare planning, with development of preventive or treatment plans to reduce and delay the progression of the disease and thus the anticipated increase in the healthcare costs of CKD.

Chronic kidney disease in adults aged 18 years and older in Chile: findings from the cross-sectional Chilean National Health Surveys 2009-2010 and 2016-2017.

OBJECTIVES: This study estimates the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) among Chilean adults and examines its associations with sociodemographic characteristics, health behaviours and comorbidities. DESIGN: Analysis of cross-sectional data from the two most recent large nationally representative Chilean Health Surveys (Encuesta Nacional de Salud, ENS) 2009-2010 and 2016-2017. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged 18+ years with serum creatine data (ENS 2009-2010: n=4583; ENS 2016-2017: n=5084). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Reduced kidney function (CKD stages 3a-5) based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2) was the primary outcome measure. Using the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR ≥30 mg/g), increased albuminuria was ascertained among adults aged 40+ years with diabetes and/or hypertension. Both outcomes were analysed using logistic regression with results summarised using OR. CKD prevalence (stages 1-5) among adults aged 40+ years was estimated including participants with an eGFR of >60 mL/min/1.73 m2 but with increased albuminuria (stages 1-2). RESULTS: Overall, 3.2% (95% CI: 2.4% to 3.8%) of adults aged 18+ in ENS 2016-2017 had reduced kidney function. After full adjustment, participants with hypertension (OR: 2.37; 95% CI: 1.19 to 4.74) and those with diabetes (OR: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.03 to 2.66) had significantly higher odds of reduced kidney function. In ENS 2016-2017, 15.5% (13.5% to 17.8%) of adults aged 40+ years with diabetes and/or hypertension had increased albuminuria. Being obese versus normal-weight (OR: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.08 to 2.54) and having both diabetes and hypertension versus having diabetes alone (OR: 2.30; 95% CI: 1.34 to 3.95) were significantly associated with higher odds of increased albuminuria in fully-adjusted analyses. At least 15.4% of adults aged 40+ years in ENS 2016-2017 had CKD (stages 1-5), including the 9.6% of adults at CKD stages 1-2. CONCLUSIONS: Prevention strategies and Chilean guidelines should consider the high percentage of adults aged 40 years and older at CKD stages 1-2.

Building the health-economic case for scaling up the WHO-HEARTS hypertension control package in low- and middle-income countries / Argumentos de la economía de la salud para ampliar las medidas de control de la hipertensión de la iniciativa HEARTS de la OMS en los países de ingresos medianos y bajos / Ampliação do pacote de controle da hipertensão OMS-HEARTS em países de baixa e média renda: argumentos a partir da perspectiva da economia em saúde

ABSTRACT Generally, hypertension control programs are cost-effective, including in low- and middle-income countries, but country governments and civil society are not likely to support hypertension control programs unless value is demonstrated in terms of public health benefits, budget impact, and value-for-investment for the individual country context. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) established a standard, simplified Global HEARTS approach to hypertension control, including preferred antihypertensive medicines and blood pressure measurement devices. The objective of this study is to report on health economic studies of HEARTS hypertension control package cost (especially medication costs), cost-effectiveness, and budget impact and describe mathematical models designed to translate hypertension control program data into the optimal approach to hypertension care service delivery and financing, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Early results suggest that HEARTS hypertension control interventions are either cost-saving or cost-effective, that the HEARTS package is affordable at between US$ 18-44 per person treated per year, and that antihypertensive medicines could be priced low enough to reach a global standard of an average <US$ 5 per patient per year in the public sector. This health economic evidence will make a compelling case for government ownership and financial support for national scale hypertension control programs.

RESUMEN En general, los programas de control de la hipertensión son costo-eficaces, incluso en los países de ingresos bajos y medios. Aun así, es poco probable que los gobiernos nacionales y la sociedad civil apoyen los programas de control de la hipertensión a menos que se demuestre su valor en términos de beneficios para la salud pública, impacto presupuestario y valor de la inversión para el contexto individual del país. La Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) y la Organización Panamericana de la Salud (OPS) implementaron la iniciativa HEARTS, un enfoque mundial estandarizado y simplificado para el control de la hipertensión, que incluye los medicamentos antihipertensivos y los dispositivos de medición de la presión arterial de preferencia. El objetivo de este estudio es informar sobre los estudios en el ámbito de la economía de la salud relativos al costo de las medidas de control de la hipertensión previstas en HEARTS (especialmente, de los medicamentos), la costo-efectividad y el impacto presupuestario, así como describir los modelos matemáticos diseñados para traducir los datos de este programa en un enfoque óptimo para la prestación y el financiamiento de los servicios de atención de la hipertensión, especialmente en países de ingresos medianos y bajos. Los primeros resultados indican que las intervenciones de HEARTS para el control de la hipertensión son de bajo costo o costo-eficaces, que el conjunto de medidas HEARTS es asequible, a un precio que oscila entre US$ 18 y US$ 44 al año por paciente tratado, y que los medicamentos antihipertensivos podrían tener un precio lo suficientemente bajo como para alcanzar un estándar medio mundial de <US$ 5 por paciente al año en el sector público. Estos datos del ámbito de la economía de la salud serán argumentos convincentes para que los gobiernos se involucren en los programas de control de la hipertensión a escala nacional y les brinden apoyo financiero.

RESUMO Geralmente, os programas de controle de hipertensão são custo-efetivos, inclusive em países de baixa e média renda, mas os governos dos países e a sociedade civil provavelmente não apoiarão tais programas a menos que demonstrem valor em termos de benefícios à saúde pública, impacto orçamentário e retorno sobre o investimento no contexto individual do país. A Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) e a Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde (OPAS) criaram a Global HEARTS, uma abordagem padrão e simplificada ao controle da hipertensão arterial, que inclui medicamentos anti-hipertensivos preferidos e dispositivos para aferição da pressão arterial preferidos. O objetivo deste estudo é relatar os estudos de economia em saúde que analisaram o custo (especialmente custos de medicamentos), custo-benefício e impacto orçamentário do pacote HEARTS para controle da hipertensão e descrever modelos matemáticos elaborados para traduzir os dados do programa de controle de hipertensão em uma abordagem ideal para a prestação e financiamento de serviços de atenção às pessoas com hipertensão, especialmente em países de baixa e média renda. Os primeiros resultados sugerem que as intervenções HEARTS para controle da hipertensão são de baixo custo ou custo-efetivas, que o pacote HEARTS é acessível (custando de US$ 18 a 44 por pessoa tratada por ano) e que o preço dos medicamentos anti-hipertensivos poderia ser baixo o suficiente para atingir uma média global de <US$ 18 por paciente por ano no setor público. Estas evidências do campo da economia em saúde serão um argumento convincente para que os governos se responsabilizem por programas de controle de hipertensão em escala nacional e os dotem de recursos financeiros.

Results From Chile's 2016 Report Card on Physical Activity for Children and Youth.

BACKGROUND: The 2016 Chilean Report Card on Physical Activity for Children and Youth is a review of the evidence across indicators of behaviors, settings, and sources of influence associated with physical activity (PA) of Chilean children and youth. METHODS: A Research Work Group reviewed available evidence from publications, surveys, government documents and datasets to assign a grade for 11 indicators for PA behavior based on the percentage of compliance for defined benchmarks. Grades were defined as follows: A, 81% to 100% of children accomplishing a given benchmark; B, 61% to 80%; C, 41% to 60%; D, 21% to 40%; F, 0% to 20%; INC, incomplete data available to assign score. RESULTS: Grades assigned were for i) 'Behaviors that contribute to overall PA levels': Overall PA, F; Organized Sport Participation, D; Active Play, INC; and Active Transportation, C-; ii) 'Factors associated with cardiometabolic risk': Sedentary Behavior, D; Overweight and Obesity, F; Fitness, F; and iii) 'Factors that influence PA': Family and Peers, D; School, D; Community and Built Environment, C; Government Strategies and Investments, C. CONCLUSIONS: Chile faces a major challenge as most PA indicators scored low. There were clear research and information gaps that need to be filled with the implementation of consistent and regular data collection methods.