Lipid levels in midlife and risk of atrial fibrillation over 3 decades-Experience from the Swedish AMORIS cohort: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The role of cholesterol levels in the development of atrial fibrillation (AF) is still controversial. In addition, whether and to what extent apolipoproteins are associated with the risk of AF is rarely studied. In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between blood lipid levels in midlife and subsequent risk of new-onset AF. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This population-based study included 65,136 individuals aged 45 to 60 years without overt cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) from the Swedish Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk (AMORIS) cohort. Lipids were measured in 1985 to 1996, and individuals were followed until December 31, 2019 for incident AF (i.e., study outcome). Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox regression, adjusting for age, sex, and socioeconomic status. Over a mean follow-up of 24.2 years (standard deviation 7.5, range 0.2 to 35.9), 13,871 (21.3%) incident AF cases occurred. Higher levels of total cholesterol (TC) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) were statistically significantly associated with a lower risk of AF during the first 5 years of follow-up (HR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.41 to 0.99, p = 0.013; HR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.45 to 0.92, p = 0.016), but not thereafter (HR ranging from 0.94 [95% CI: 0.89 to 1.00, p = 0.038] to 0.96 [95% CI: 0.77 to 1.19, p > 0.05]). Lower levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and apolipoprotein A-I (ApoA-I) and higher triglycerides (TG)/HDL-C ratio were statistically significantly associated with a higher risk of AF during the entire follow-up (HR ranging from 1.13 [95% CI: 1.07 to 1.19, p < 0.001] to 1.53 [95% CI: 1.12 to 2.00, p = 0.007]). Apolipoprotein B (ApoB)/ApoA-I ratio was not associated with AF risk. The observed associations were similar among those who developed incident heart failure (HF)/coronary heart disease (CHD) and those who did not. The main limitations of this study include lack of adjustments for lifestyle factors and high blood pressure leading to potential residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: High TC and LDL-C in midlife was associated with a lower risk of AF, but this association was present only within 5 years from lipid measurement and not thereafter. On the contrary, low HDL-C and ApoA-I and high TG/HDL-C ratio were associated with an increased risk of AF over almost 35 years of follow-up. ApoB/ApoA-I ratio was not associated with AF risk.

Long-term risk of a major cardiovascular event by apoB, apoA-1, and the apoB/apoA-1 ratio-Experience from the Swedish AMORIS cohort: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Elevated apolipoprotein B (apoB) and elevated apoB/apoA-1 ratio increase the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke, whereas high apoA-1 is protective. We study how these apolipoproteins are associated with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), whether apoA-1 contributes to this association, and whether abnormal values occur decades before such events develop. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In the Swedish AMORIS (Apolipoprotein-related MOrtality RISk) cohort study, 137,100 men and women aged 25-84 years were followed an average 17.8 years. ApoB, apoA-1, and the apoB/apoA-1 ratio were analysed in relation to MACEs (non-fatal MI, stroke, and cardiovascular [CV] mortality), yielding 22,473 events. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Cox regression. Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to investigate the relationship of MACEs with increasing quintiles of the apoB/apoA-1 ratio in all age groups for both sexes. In nested case-control analyses, cases were randomly matched to age- and sex-matched controls, yielding population trajectories for apolipoproteins. Increased level of apoB and increased apoB/apoA-1 ratio were associated with risk of MACE and all clinical sub-components in both men and women across all ages (10th versus first decile in both sexes combined: HR 1.7 for MACE and 2.7 for non-fatal MI). Decreased values of apoA-1 potentiated the impact of apoB at all levels of apoB (on average across apoB range: 40% increase in HR for MACE and 72% increase in HR for non-fatal MI), indicating that the apoB/apoA-1 ratio covers a broader range of persons with dyslipidaemia at risk than apoB alone. In both men and women, MACEs occurred earlier on average for each increasing quintile of the apoB/apoA-1 ratio. Individuals with the highest levels of apoB/apoA-1 ratio experienced CV events on average several years earlier than those with lower ratios. Higher apoB/apoA-1 ratio in cases of MACE versus controls was seen already about 20 years before the event. A limitation of this study was that adjustment for tobacco smoking and hypertension was only possible in a small validation study. CONCLUSIONS: An imbalance between apoB and apoA-1 resulting in an increased apoB/apoA-1 ratio is strongly associated with the outcome MACE and its sub-components, in both men and women of all ages. An increased apoB/apoA-1 ratio already 2 decades before events calls for early recognition and primary prevention. Simple evidence-based cut values should be considered in future cardiovascular guidelines.

Association between serum markers of the humoral immune system and inflammation in the Swedish AMORIS study.

BACKGROUND: Although the onset of inflammatory cascades may profoundly influence the nature of antibody responses, the interplay between inflammatory and humoral (antibody) immune markers remains unclear. Thus, we explored the reciprocity between the humoral immune system and inflammation and assessed how external socio-demographic factors may influence these interactions. From the AMORIS cohort, 5513 individuals were identified with baseline measurements of serum humoral immune [immunoglobulin G, A & M (IgG, IgA, IgM)] and inflammation (C-reactive protein (CRP), albumin, haptoglobin, white blood cells (WBC), iron and total iron-binding capacity) markers measured on the same day. Correlation analysis, principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering were used to evaluate biomarkers correlation, variation and associations. Multivariate analysis of variance was used to assess associations between biomarkers and educational level, socio-economic status, sex and age. RESULTS: Frequently used serum markers for inflammation, CRP, haptoglobin and white blood cells, correlated together. Hierarchical clustering and principal component analysis confirmed the interaction between these main biological responses, showing an acute response component (CRP, Haptoglobin, WBC, IgM) and adaptive response component (Albumin, Iron, TIBC, IgA, IgG). A socioeconomic gradient associated with worse health outcomes was observed, specifically low educational level, older age and male sex were associated with serum levels that indicated infection and inflammation. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that serum markers of the humoral immune system and inflammation closely interact in response to infection or inflammation. Clustering analysis presented two main immune response components: an acute and an adaptive response, comprising markers of both biological pathways. Future studies should shift from single internal marker assessment to multiple humoral and inflammation serum markers combined, when assessing risk of clinical outcomes such as cancer.

Ability of Noninvasive Scoring Systems to Identify Individuals in the Population at Risk for Severe Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Noninvasive scoring systems are used to identify persons with advanced liver fibrosis. We investigated the ability of scoring systems to identify individuals in the general population at risk for future liver-related events. METHODS: We collected data from the Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk cohort on persons 35 to 79 years old who had blood samples collected from 1985 through 1996. We collected APRI (n = 127,302), BARD (n = 75,303), FIB-4 (n = 126,941), Forns (n = 122,419), and the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) fibrosis scores (NFS, n = 13,160). We ascertained incident cases of cirrhosis or complications by linking Swedish health data registers. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for severe liver disease at 5, 10, and a maximum follow-up time of 27 years. The predictive ability of the scores was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and C-statistics analyses. Our specific aims were to investigate the predictive capabilities of scoring systems for fatal and nonfatal liver disease, determine which scoring system has the highest level of accuracy, and investigate the predictive abilities of the scoring systems in persons with a higher probability of NAFLD at baseline. RESULTS: A similar proportion of individuals evaluated by each scoring system developed cirrhosis or complications thereof (1.0%-1.4%). The incidence of any outcome was increased in intermediate- and high-risk groups compared with low-risk groups, with HRs at 10 years in the high-risk group ranging from 1.67 for the BARD score to 45.9 for the APRI score. The predictive abilities of all scoring systems decreased with time and were higher in men. All scoring systems were more accurate in persons with risk factors for NAFLD at baseline, with AUROCs reaching 0.83. CONCLUSIONS: Higher scores from noninvasive scoring systems to evaluate fibrosis are associated with an increased risk of cirrhosis in a general population, but their predictive ability is modest. Performance was better when patients were followed for shorter time periods and in persons with a higher risk of NAFLD, with AUROC values reaching 0.83. New scoring systems are needed to evaluate risk of fibrosis in the general population and in primary care.

Impaired fasting glucose: a risk factor for atrial fibrillation and heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Dysglycaemia is associated with overall cardiovascular disease even at prediabetes levels. The aim of this study was to explore the association between glucose levels and future risk of developing atrial fibrillation and heart failure, respectively. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study subjects from the Swedish AMORIS-cohort with fasting glucose from health examinations 1985-1996 without previous cardiovascular disease (N = 294,057) were followed to 31 December 2011 for incident atrial fibrillation or heart failure. Cox proportional hazard models with attained age as timescale and adjustments for sex, cholesterol, triglycerides, and socioeconomic status were used to estimate hazard ratios by glucose categorized groups (normal glucose 3.9-6.0 mmol/L, impaired fasting glucose; 6.1-6.9 mmol/L, undiagnosed diabetes ≥ 7.0 mmol/L, and diagnosed diabetes). RESULTS: During a mean follow-up time of 19.1 years 28,233 individuals developed atrial fibrillation and 25,604 developed heart failure. The HR for atrial fibrillation was 1.19 (95% confidence interval 1.13-1.26) for impaired fasting glucose, 1.23 (1.15-1.32) for undiagnosed diabetes and 1.30 (1.21-1.41) for diagnosed diabetes. Corresponding figures for heart failure were; 1.40 (1.33-1.48), 2.11 (1.99-2.23), 2.22 (2.08-2.36) respectively. In a subset with BMI data (19%), these associations were attenuated and for atrial fibrillation only remained statistically significant among subjects with diagnosed diabetes (HR 1.25; 1.02-1.53). CONCLUSIONS: Fasting glucose at prediabetes levels is associated with development of atrial fibrillation and heart failure. To some extent increased BMI may drive this association.

Lipids, Apolipoproteins, and the Risk of Parkinson Disease.

RATIONALE: A complete picture of the associations of the most common lipid fractions, including total cholesterol (TC), LDL-C (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol), HDL-C (high-density lipoprotein cholesterol), triglycerides, and apolipoproteins, with the risk of Parkinson disease (PD), is lacking. OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations of lipids and apolipoproteins with the future risk of PD. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the AMORIS (Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk) Study, we enrolled ≈600 000 participants during 1985 to 1996 in Stockholm, Sweden, with repeated measurements of TC, LDL-C, HDL-C, triglycerides, ApoB (apolipoprotein B), and ApoA-I (apolipoprotein A-I). The cohort was followed until the end of 2011, and incident cases of PD were identified through the Swedish Patient Register. We first used Cox models to estimate the associations of these biomarkers with later risk of PD. We further applied a Mendelian randomization analysis for TC, LDL-C, and triglycerides using the GWAS (Genome-wide association study) summary statistics from the public PD GWAS data and 23andMe PD cohorts with >800 000 individuals. One SD increase of TC was associated with a lower hazard of PD (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.87-0.94). Similar associations were observed for LDL-C (hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.88-0.98), triglycerides (hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.90-0.97), and ApoB (hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.85-0.97). A clear dose-response relation was also noted when using these biomarkers as categorical variables. A causal inverse association of TC, LDL-C, and triglycerides with PD risk was further suggested by the Mendelian randomization analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings reinforce that higher levels of TC, LDL-C, and triglycerides are associated with a lower future risk of PD and further suggest that these associations may be causal. The findings for ApoB in relation to PD risk are novel, and whether such association is causal needs to be examined.

Elevated Apolipoprotein B/A-1 Ratio is Associated With an Increased Risk of Aortic Stenosis: Experience From the AMORIS Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Lipoproteins are associated with acquired aortic valve stenosis (AS). This study investigated whether an elevated apolipoprotein (apo)B/apoA-1 ratio was associated with an increased risk of AS and if this association was influenced by a history of a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) defined as stroke, myocardial infarction or revascularisation. METHODS: A study was undertaken of 131,816 individuals, aged ≥30 years, from the Swedish Apolipoprotein MOrtality RISk (AMORIS) cohort, with measurements of apolipoproteins B and A-1 at health examinations during 1985-1996. RESULTS: There were fewer women and the average age was 4 years older in the highest apoB/apoA-1 quintile compared with the lowest. Being overweight, having reduced renal function and diabetes mellitus were more frequent. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride and apolipoprotein B levels were higher in the top apoB/apoA-1 quintile. During follow-up through 2011, non-rheumatic aortic valve disease was diagnosed in 2,999 individuals (2.3%). Using ICD-10 codes from 1997, AS was identified in 1,887 patients. An elevated apoB/apoA-1 ratio was associated with an increased incidence of aortic valve disease after multivariable adjustment [hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) for the fifth vs first quintile of 1.28 (1.09-1.50)]. Restricting the analyses to incident AS during 1997-2011 yielded an HR of 1.41 (1.15-1.72). This increased incidence was primarily seen in women and individuals aged ≥65 years. History of MACE did not influence these associations. CONCLUSIONS: An elevated apoB/apoA-1 ratio was associated with an increased incidence of AS, particularly in women and individuals aged ≥65 years, regardless of previous MACE.

Repeated FIB-4 measurements can help identify individuals at risk of severe liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It is unclear whether the identification of individuals at risk of cirrhosis using non-invasive tests can be improved by repeated measurements. Herein, we tested whether repeated measurements of fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) could improve the identification of individuals at risk of severe liver disease. METHODS: Data were derived from the population-based Swedish AMORIS cohort with baseline examinations from 1985-1996. FIB-4 was calculated at 2 time points within 5 years. Thereafter, we associated changes in FIB-4 with outcomes. Incident severe liver disease data was ascertained through linkage to Swedish national registers until 2011. Hazard ratios (HRs) and CIs for outcomes were calculated using Cox regression. RESULTS: Of 126,942 individuals with available FIB-4 data, 40,729 (32.1%) underwent a second test within 5 years (mean interval 2.4 years). During 613,376 person-years of follow-up, 581 severe liver disease events were documented (0.95/1,000 person-years). An increase of 1 unit in FIB-4 was associated with an elevated risk of severe liver disease (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.81; 95% CI 1.67-1.96). Transitioning from a low- or intermediate- to a high-risk group was associated with an increased risk of severe liver disease compared with those consistently in the low-risk group (aHR 7.99 and 8.64, respectively). A particularly increased risk of severe liver disease was found in individuals defined as high risk at both tests (aHR 17.04; 95% CI 11.67-24.88). However, almost half of all events occurred in those consistently in the low-risk group. CONCLUSIONS: Repeated testing of FIB-4 within 5 years improves the identification of individuals at an increased risk of severe liver disease in the general population. However, the sensitivity is comparatively low and improved tests are needed for screening in a general population or primary care setting. LAY SUMMARY: The fibrosis-4 scoring system is often used to estimate the risk of advanced fibrosis in liver diseases. Herein, we found that changes in this score over time are associated with the risk of future severe liver disease in a population-based cohort. However, even if the prediction is improved by repeated testing, the overall ability of the score to predict future events is relatively low.

Peripheral immune biomarkers and neurodegenerative diseases: A prospective cohort study with 20 years of follow-up.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations of several blood immune biomarkers with the future risks of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and Parkinson disease in a prospective cohort study with 20 years of follow-up. METHODS: The Swedish Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk study is a longitudinal cohort study including 812,073 participants with repeated blood biomarker measurements between 1985 and 1996 and a follow-up until 2011. Using a Cox model, we first estimated hazard ratios of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and Parkinson disease in relation to leukocytes, immunoglobulin G, haptoglobin, and uric acid. We further described the temporal changes of these biomarkers during the 20 years prior to the diagnosis of these diseases. RESULTS: A total of 585 incident cases of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and 3,769 incident cases of Parkinson disease were identified during the follow-up. Increasing concentrations of leukocytes, haptoglobin, and uric acid were associated with a lower risk of Parkinson disease. No statistically significant association was, however, noted between the studied biomarkers and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Parkinson disease patients appeared to have lower levels of leukocytes and haptoglobin between 20 and 10 years before diagnosis and lower levels of uric acid during the 20 years before diagnosis, compared to controls, although statistically significant differences were only noted during parts of the respective time intervals after multivariable adjustment. No clear differences were noted between patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and controls. INTERPRETATION: If verified in studies of independent populations, our findings may suggest a different role of systemic inflammation on the risk of Parkinson disease compared to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. ANN NEUROL 2019;86:913-926.

A Swedish primary healthcare prevention programme focusing on promotion of physical activity and a healthy lifestyle reduced cardiovascular events and mortality: 22-year follow-up of 5761 study participants and a reference group.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate long-term risk of first cardiovascular (CV) events, CV deaths and all-cause deaths in community-dwelling participants of a cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention programme delivered in a primary care setting. METHODS: Individuals who visited a primary healthcare service in Sollentuna (Sweden) and agreed to participate in the programme between 1988 and 1993 were followed. They had at least one CV risk factor but no prior myocardial infarction and received support to increase physical activity using the programme Physical Activity on Prescription and to adopt health-promoting behaviours including cooking classes, weight reduction, smoking cessation and stress management. Participants (n=5761) were compared with a randomly selected, propensity score-matched reference group from the general population in Stockholm County (n=34 556). All individuals were followed in Swedish registers until December 2011. RESULTS: In the intervention group and the reference group there were 698 (12.1%) and 4647 (13.4%) first CV events, 308 (5.3%) and 2261 (6.5%) CV deaths, and 919 (16.5%) and 6405 (18.5%) all-cause deaths, respectively, during a mean follow-up of 22 years. The HR (95% CI) in the intervention group compared with the reference group was 0.88 (0.81 to 0.95) for first CV events, 0.79 (0.70 to 0.89) for CV deaths and 0.83 (0.78 to 0.89) for all-cause deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Participation in a CVD prevention programme in primary healthcare focusing on promotion of physical activity and healthy lifestyle was associated with lower risk of CV events (12%), CV deaths (21%) and all-cause deaths (17%) after two decades. Promoting physical activity and healthy living in the primary healthcare setting may prevent CVD.

Baseline serum folate, vitamin B12 and the risk of prostate and breast cancer using data from the Swedish AMORIS cohort.

PURPOSE: The roles of folate and vitamin B12 in prostate cancer (PCa) or breast cancer (BC) development are unclear. We investigated their roles using the prospective Swedish Apolipoprotein MOrtality RISk (AMORIS) study. METHODS: 8,783 men and 19,775 women with vitamin B12 and folate serum measurements were included. Their associations with PCa and BC risk categories were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: During mean follow-up of 13 years, 703 men developed PCa. There was an inverse association between folate > 32 nmol/L and high-risk PCa [hazard ratio (HR) 0.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02-0.90], and a positive association between folate < 5 nmol/L and metastatic PCa (HR 5.25, 95% CI 1.29-21.41), compared with folate 5-32 nmol/L. No associations with vitamin B12 were found. 795 women developed BC during mean follow-up of 14 years. When restricting to the fasting population, there was a positive association between folate > 32 nmol/L and BC (HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.06-2.04). CONCLUSION: High folate levels may protect against PCa and low folate levels may increase risk of metastatic PCa. High fasting folate levels may be associated with an increased BC risk. Vitamin B12 was not found to be linked with risk of PCa or BC. Longitudinal studies with serum and dietary information could help define new prevention targets and add information on the role of folate fortification.

Serum glucose, triglycerides, and cholesterol in relation to prostate cancer death in the Swedish AMORIS study.

PURPOSE: Lifestyle-related conditions such as obesity are associated with prostate cancer progression, but the associations with hyperglycemia and dyslipidemia are unclear. This study, therefore, aims to examine the association of glucose, triglycerides, and total cholesterol with prostate cancer death. METHODS: From the Swedish AMORIS cohort, we selected 14,150 men diagnosed with prostate cancer between 1996 and 2011 who had prediagnostic measurements of serum glucose, triglycerides, and total cholesterol. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to determine the hazard ratios for death in relation to the aforementioned metabolic markers. RESULTS: Using clinical cut-off points, a non-significant positive association was observed between glucose and prostate cancer death. When compared to those with glucose in the lowest quartile, those in the highest quartile had greater risk of prostate cancer death (HR 1.19; 95% CI 1.02-1.39). However, neither total cholesterol nor triglycerides were associated with prostate cancer death. Glucose and triglycerides were positively associated with overall, cardiovascular, and other deaths. Hypercholesterolemia was only associated with risk of CVD death. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that glucose levels may influence prostate cancer survival, but further studies using repeated measurements are needed to further elucidate how glucose levels may influence prostate cancer progression.

Chronic inflammation markers are associated with risk of pancreatic cancer in the Swedish AMORIS cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Nested case-control studies examining the association between serum markers of chronic inflammation, focused on three specific biomarkers (CRP, IL-8 and TNF-α), and risk of pancreatic cancer have reported no associations. In this study, we evaluated associations between standard pre-diagnostic serum markers of chronic inflammation (CRP, albumin, haptoglobin and leukocytes) and pancreatic cancer risk in the Swedish Apolipoprotein-related MORtality RISk (AMORIS) prospective cohort study. METHODS: We selected all participants (≥20 years old) with baseline measurements of CRP, albumin, haptoglobin and leukocytes between 1985 and 1996 (n = 61,597). Participants were excluded if they had a history of chronic pancreatitis and all individuals were free from pancreatic cancer at baseline. Cox proportional multivariable hazards regression analysis was carried out for medical cut-offs of CRP, albumin, haptoglobin and leukocytes. RESULTS: We observed an increased risk of pancreatic cancer for those individuals with higher levels of serum haptoglobin (≥1.4 g/L), CRP (≥10 mg/L) and leukocytes (≥10 × 109 cells/L) compared to those with haptoglobin levels < 1.4 g/L, CRP levels < 10 mg/L and Leukocyte levels < 10 × 109 cells/L [haptoglobin HR: 2.23 (95% CI 1.72-2.88), CRP HR: 1.32 (95% CI 1.00-1.74), leukocytes HR: 2.20 (95% CI 1.52-3.18)]. No associations were noted for serum albumin. CONCLUSIONS: We found an increased risk of pancreatic cancer associated with pre-diagnostic serum levels of haptoglobin, CRP and leukocytes. Our finding suggests a possible role of chronic inflammation in the aetiology of pancreatic cancer and highlight the need to further investigate this association.

Blood biomarkers of carbohydrate, lipid, and apolipoprotein metabolisms and risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: A more than 20-year follow-up of the Swedish AMORIS cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations of blood biomarkers of carbohydrate, lipid, and apolipoprotein metabolisms with the future risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). METHODS: In the Apolipoprotein-related MOrtality RISk study, we enrolled 636,132 men and women during 1985-1996 in Stockholm, Sweden, with measurements of serum glucose, total cholesterol, triglycerides, apolipoprotein B (apoB), and apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I). Serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) were either directly measured or calculated from total cholesterol, triglycerides, and apoA-I. The cohort was followed until the end of 2011. We used Cox models and mixed-effects models to, first, estimate the associations between these biomarkers and ALS incidence and, second, to assess the changes of these biomarkers during the 20 years before ALS diagnosis. RESULTS: One-unit increase of LDL-C (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.14; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02-1.27), apoB (HR = 1.68; 95% CI = 1.17-2.42), and apoB/apoA-I ratio (HR = 1.90; 95% CI = 1.29-2.78) was associated with a higher incidence of ALS. High glucose level (≥6.11mmol/L) was associated with a lower incidence (HR = 0.62; 95% CI = 0.42-0.93), whereas high LDL-C/HDL-C (≥3.50; HR = 1.50; 95% CI = 1.15-1.96) and high apoB/apoA-I (≥0.90 for men, ≥0.8 for women; HR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.04-1.90) ratios were associated with a higher incidence. During the 10 years before diagnosis, ALS patients had increasing levels of LDL-C, HDL-C, apoB, and apoA-I, whereas gradually decreasing levels of LDL-C/HDL-C and apoB/apoA-I ratios. INTERPRETATION: Alterations in the carbohydrate, lipid, and apolipoprotein metabolisms are associated with ALS risk and may serve as prodromal symptoms decades before ALS diagnosis. The imbalance between apoB and apoA-I as well as between LDL-C and HDL-C may be an etiological mechanism for ALS and needs to be further studied. Ann Neurol 2017;81:718-728.

Can pre-diagnostic serum levels of sodium and potassium predict prostate cancer survival?

There is evidence that derangement in serum electrolytes like sodium and potassium is associated with increased morbidity and mortality among hospitalized critically ill patients, but their role in the context of cancer survival remains poorly understood. We sought to investigate the association of pre-diagnostic serum sodium and potassium with risk of overall, cancer-specific, and cardiovascular (CV) death among 11,492 men diagnosed with prostate cancer (PCa) from the Swedish AMORIS study. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the risk of death by clinical categories of pre-diagnostic serum sodium and potassium. During a mean follow-up of 5.7 years, 1649 men died of PCa. Serum levels of sodium were not indicative of PCa-specific or CV death. A weak positive association was found between pre-diagnostic higher serum potassium (> 5 mEq/L) and overall death [HR: 1.26 (95% CI: 1.01-1.59)] as compared to low/normal levels of clinical cut-offs. The current study did not find strong evidence for a role of electrolytes in PCa mortality. To further disentangle the potential role of electrolytes in cancer development, future studies should use repeated measurement of serum electrolytes.This research project was reviewed and approved by the Stockholm Ethical Committee (Dnr 2010/1:7).

Glucose, lipids and gamma-glutamyl transferase measured before prostate cancer diagnosis and secondly diagnosed primary tumours: a prospective study in the Swedish AMORIS cohort.

BACKGROUND: Improvements in detection and treatment of prostate cancer (PCa) translate into more men living with PCa, who are therefore potentially at risk of a secondly diagnosed primary tumour (SDPTs). Little is known about potential biochemical mechanisms linking PCa with the occurrence of SDPTs. The current study aims to investigate serum biomarkers of glucose and lipid metabolism and gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) measured prior to PCa diagnosis and their association with the occurrence of SDPTS. METHODS: From the Swedish AMORIS cohort, we selected all men diagnosed with PCa between 1996 and 2011, with at least one of the five biomarkers of interest (glucose, fructosamine, triglycerides, total cholesterol (TC), GGT) measured on average 16 years before PCa diagnosis (n = 10,791). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine hazard ratios (HR) for risk of SDPTs (overall and subtypes) by levels of the five biomarkers. Effect modification of treatment was assessed. RESULTS: 811 SDPTS were diagnosed during a median follow-up time of 5 years. Elevated levels of triglycerides (HR: 1.37, 95%CI: 1.17-1.60), TC (HR: 1.22, 95%CI: 1.04-1.42) and GGT (HR: 1.32, 95%CI: 1.02-1.71) were associated with an increased risk of SDPTs. Risk of SDPTs subtypes varied by biomarkers. CONCLUSION: Elevated levels of biomarkers of lipid metabolism and GGT measured prior to PCa diagnosis were associated with an increased risk of SDPTs, suggesting a potential common biochemical background for development of PCa and SDPTs.

Elevations of metabolic risk factors 20 years or more before diagnosis of type 2 diabetes: Experience from the AMORIS study.

AIMS: To describe trajectories for metabolic risk factors for type 2 diabetes (T2D) up to 25 years prior to diagnosis and to estimate the absolute 20-year risk for T2D based on a simple set of commonly measured key risk factors. METHODS: From the Swedish AMORIS cohort we included 296 428 individuals with data on fasting glucose obtained in health examinations during 1985-1996 (baseline period). All participants were followed until 2012 for development of incident T2D. The 20-year T2D risk based on age, sex, body mass index (BMI), fasting glucose and triglycerides was estimated. Trajectories for biomedical risk factors of T2D starting from >20 years before diagnosis and including fasting glucose, triglycerides and BMI were evaluated according to yearly means for cases and controls. RESULTS: We identified 28 244 new T2D cases during the study period, with an average 20-year risk of 8.1%. This risk was substantially increased in overweight and obese participants and those with elevated fasting glucose and triglyceride levels, in both men and women. T2D cases had higher mean BMI and fasting glucose and triglyceride levels compared with controls >20 years before diagnosis and the difference in fasting glucose levels increased over time. CONCLUSIONS: Development of T2D is associated with subtle elevations in glucose and lipid levels >20 years before diagnosis. This suggests that diabetogenic processes tied to chronic insulin resistance operate for decades prior to the development of T2D. A simple risk classification can help in early identification of individuals who are at increased risk.

Circulating gamma-glutamyl transferase and development of specific breast cancer subtypes: findings from the Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk (AMORIS) cohort.

BACKGROUND: Different etiological pathways may precede development of specific breast cancer subtypes and impact prevention or treatment strategies. We investigated the association between gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) and development of specific breast cancer subtypes based on oestrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR) and HER2 status. METHODS: We included 231,283 cancer-free women in a Swedish cohort. Associations between GGT and breast cancer subtypes were investigated with nested case-control and case-case analyses. We used logistic regression models to assess serum GGT in relation to breast cancer subtype, based on individual and combined receptor status. RESULTS: Positive associations were found between serum GGT and development of ER+, ER- and PR+ breast cancers compared to controls (odds ratio (OR) 1.14 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.19), 1.11 (1.01-1.23) and 1.18 (1.12-1.24), respectively) and of ER+/PR+ tumours. We found inverse associations between GGT levels and PR- breast cancers compared to PR+ (OR 0.87 (0.80-0.95)), between ER+/PR- tumours compared to ER+/PR+ tumours and between ER-/PR-/HER+ compared to ER+/HER2 or PR+/HER2 tumours (OR 0.55 (95% CI 0.34-0.90). CONCLUSION: The observed associations between pre-diagnostic serum GGT and different breast cancer subtypes may indicate distinct underlying pathways and require further investigations to tease out their clinical implications.

The association between individual metabolic syndrome components, primary liver cancer and cirrhosis: A study in the Swedish AMORIS cohort.

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, which may progress to cirrhosis, a significant risk factor of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the commonest malignant primary liver cancer (PLC). We investigated the association between the individual components of MetS (lipids, apolipoproteins, raised glucose, diabetes and obesity), PLC and cirrhosis. A total of 509,436 participants from the Swedish AMORIS cohort, recruited between January 1985 and December 1996 (end-date December 2011), aged ≥20 with baseline triglycerides (TG), total cholesterol (TC), glucose and liver enzymes were included. Those with baseline benign liver tumours, PLC or cirrhosis were excluded. Multivariate Cox regression, adjusted for age, gender, socio-economic status, liver disease (excluding cirrhosis) and MetS factors were used to estimate the association with PLC and cirrhosis. There were 766 PLC and 2,775 cirrhosis cases over 13 years. Raised TG, low TC, raised glucose, diabetes and low HDL were associated with an increased risk of developing PLC and cirrhosis. ApoB/ApoA-I ratio were also associated with PLC, whilst low LDL, raised TG/HDL, low ApoA-I and low ApoB were associated with cirrhosis. Obesity was significantly associated with PLC but not cirrhosis. Raised TG, low TC, raised glucose and diabetes showed stronger associations with PLC in participants with cirrhosis but many participants developed PLC without cirrhosis. Individual components of MetS (lipids, apolipoproteins, raised glucose, diabetes and obesity) were associated with an increased risk of developing PLC or cirrhosis. MetS components were more strongly associated with PLC with preceding cirrhosis history but many participants developed PLC without cirrhosis.

Serum inflammatory markers and colorectal cancer risk and survival.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation has been linked with development of some cancers. We investigated systemic inflammation in relation to colorectal cancer incidence and subsequent survival using common serum inflammatory markersDesign:A cohort of men and women aged 20 years and older in greater Stockholm area with serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin measured between 1986 and 1999 were included (n=325 599). A subset of these had baseline measurements of haptoglobin and leukocytes. Multivariable Cox regression was performed to assess risk of colorectal cancer by levels of inflammatory markers, adjusting for potential confounders. Analyses were stratified by circulating glucose, total cholesterol and triglycerides. Overall and CRC-specific death following diagnosis were assessed as secondary outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 4764 individuals were diagnosed with colorectal cancer. A positive association between haptoglobin and colorectal cancer incidence was found (hazard ratio (HR): 1.17; 95% CI: 1.06-1.28). A positive association was also observed with leukocytes (HR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.03-1.42). No evidence of association was noted between CRP and colorectal cancer risk. Higher risks of all-cause death were seen with haptoglobin and leukocytes levels. Higher haptoglobin levels were linked with an increased risk of colorectal cancer death (HR: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.01-1.41). CONCLUSIONS: Prediagnostic systemic inflammation may impact colorectal cancer incidence and survival; therefore, prompting investigations linking inflammatory pathways preceding colorectal cancer with disease severity and progression.