Developing a predictive signature for two trial endpoints using the cross-validated risk scores method.

The existing cross-validated risk scores (CVRS) design has been proposed for developing and testing the efficacy of a treatment in a high-efficacy patient group (the sensitive group) using high-dimensional data (such as genetic data). The design is based on computing a risk score for each patient and dividing them into clusters using a nonparametric clustering procedure. In some settings, it is desirable to consider the tradeoff between two outcomes, such as efficacy and toxicity, or cost and effectiveness. With this motivation, we extend the CVRS design (CVRS2) to consider two outcomes. The design employs bivariate risk scores that are divided into clusters. We assess the properties of the CVRS2 using simulated data and illustrate its application on a randomized psychiatry trial. We show that CVRS2 is able to reliably identify the sensitive group (the group for which the new treatment provides benefit on both outcomes) in the simulated data. We apply the CVRS2 design to a psychology clinical trial that had offender status and substance use status as two outcomes and collected a large number of baseline covariates. The CVRS2 design yields a significant treatment effect for both outcomes, while the CVRS approach identified a significant effect for the offender status only after prefiltering the covariates.

Bayesian sample size determination in basket trials borrowing information between subsets.

Basket trials are increasingly used for the simultaneous evaluation of a new treatment in various patient subgroups under one overarching protocol. We propose a Bayesian approach to sample size determination in basket trials that permit borrowing of information between commensurate subsets. Specifically, we consider a randomized basket trial design where patients are randomly assigned to the new treatment or control within each trial subset ("subtrial" for short). Closed-form sample size formulae are derived to ensure that each subtrial has a specified chance of correctly deciding whether the new treatment is superior to or not better than the control by some clinically relevant difference. Given prespecified levels of pairwise (in)commensurability, the subtrial sample sizes are solved simultaneously. The proposed Bayesian approach resembles the frequentist formulation of the problem in yielding comparable sample sizes for circumstances of no borrowing. When borrowing is enabled between commensurate subtrials, a considerably smaller trial sample size is required compared to the widely implemented approach of no borrowing. We illustrate the use of our sample size formulae with two examples based on real basket trials. A comprehensive simulation study further shows that the proposed methodology can maintain the true positive and false positive rates at desired levels.

The mediating role of reflective functioning and general psychopathology in the relationship between childhood conduct disorder and adult aggression among offenders.

BACKGROUND: The nature of the pathway from conduct disorder (CD) in adolescence to antisocial behavior in adulthood has been debated and the role of certain mediators remains unclear. One perspective is that CD forms part of a general psychopathology dimension, playing a central role in the developmental trajectory. Impairment in reflective functioning (RF), i.e., the capacity to understand one's own and others' mental states, may relate to CD, psychopathology, and aggression. Here, we characterized the structure of psychopathology in adult male-offenders and its role, along with RF, in mediating the relationship between CD in their adolescence and current aggression. METHODS: A secondary analysis of pre-treatment data from 313 probation-supervised offenders was conducted, and measures of CD symptoms, general and specific psychopathology factors, RF, and aggression were evaluated through clinical interviews and questionnaires. RESULTS: Confirmatory factor analyses indicated that a bifactor model best fitted the sample's psychopathology structure, including a general psychopathology factor (p factor) and five specific factors: internalizing, disinhibition, detachment, antagonism, and psychoticism. The structure of RF was fitted to the data using a one-factor model. According to our mediation model, CD significantly predicted the p factor, which was positively linked to RF impairments, resulting in increased aggression. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the critical role of a transdiagnostic approach provided by RF and general psychopathology in explaining the link between CD and aggression. Furthermore, they underscore the potential utility of treatments focusing on RF, such as mentalization-based treatment, in mitigating aggression in offenders with diverse psychopathologies.

Using a prognostic medical device for early identification of pressure ulcers: protocol for study design.

BACKGROUND: An objective, physiological measurement taken using a medical device may reduce the incidence of pressure ulcers through earlier detection of problems signs before visual signs appear. Research in this field is hampered by variations in clinical practice and patient-level confounders. AIM: The authors outline key considerations for designing a protocol for a study to assess the efficacy and safety of a prognostic medical device in reducing pressure ulcer incidence in a hospital, including comparators, randomisation, sample size, ethics and practical issues. METHOD: Key issues relating to methodology and ethics are considered alongside a theoretical protocol, which could support future researchers in wound care trials. RESULTS: A prospective, three-armed, multi-centre, stratified cluster-randomised controlled trial is proposed. The third arm is recommended as it is expected that patients will need to be moved for the medical device to be used and repositioning is a preventive strategy. A minimum of 16 200 patients in 33 wards would needed to be recruited to achieve statistical significance. Ethical considerations in terms of consent or assent need to be considered. CONCLUSION: The hypothetical study designed to evaluate the effectiveness of a diagnostic or prognostic medical device in reducing pressure ulcer incidence in secondary care, while accounting for biases, would require large sample sizes and involves risks of inter-operator and inter-device reliability, heterogeneity of users and the vague clinical interpretation of device results. Robust research in this field has the potential to influence or change policy and practice relating to the prevention of pressure ulcers in secondary care.

Greater Transplant-Free Survival in Patients Receiving Obeticholic Acid for Primary Biliary Cholangitis in a Clinical Trial Setting Compared to Real-World External Controls.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) Obeticholic Acid (OCA) International Study of Efficacy (POISE) randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial demonstrated that OCA reduced biomarkers associated with adverse clinical outcomes (ie, alkaline phosphatase, bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase) in patients with PBC. The objective of this study was to evaluate time to first occurrence of liver transplantation or death in patients with OCA in the POISE trial and open-label extension vs comparable non-OCA-treated external controls. METHODS: Propensity scores were generated for external control patients meeting POISE eligibility criteria from 2 registry studies (Global PBC and UK-PBC) using an index date selected randomly between the first and last date (inclusive) on which eligibility criteria were met. Cox proportional hazards models weighted by inverse probability of treatment assessed time to death or liver transplantation. Additional analyses (Global PBC only) added hepatic decompensation to the composite end point and assessed efficacy in patients with or without cirrhosis. RESULTS: During the 6-year follow-up, there were 5 deaths or liver transplantations in 209 subjects in the POISE cohort (2.4%), 135 of 1381 patients in the Global PBC control (10.0%), and 281 of 2135 patients in the UK-PBC control (13.2%). The hazard ratios (HRs) for the primary outcome were 0.29 (95% CI, 0.10-0.83) for POISE vs Global PBC and 0.30 (95% CI, 0.12-0.75) for POISE vs UK-PBC. In the Global PBC study, HR was 0.20 (95% CI, 0.03-1.22) for patients with cirrhosis and 0.31 (95% CI, 0.09-1.04) for those without cirrhosis; HR was 0.42 (95% CI, 0.21-0.85) including hepatic decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: Patients treated with OCA in a trial setting had significantly greater transplant-free survival than comparable external control patients.

Borrowing of information across patient subgroups in a basket trial based on distributional discrepancy.

Basket trials have emerged as a new class of efficient approaches in oncology to evaluate a new treatment in several patient subgroups simultaneously. In this article, we extend the key ideas to disease areas outside of oncology, developing a robust Bayesian methodology for randomized, placebo-controlled basket trials with a continuous endpoint to enable borrowing of information across subtrials with similar treatment effects. After adjusting for covariates, information from a complementary subtrial can be represented into a commensurate prior for the parameter that underpins the subtrial under consideration. We propose using distributional discrepancy to characterize the commensurability between subtrials for appropriate borrowing of information through a spike-and-slab prior, which is placed on the prior precision factor. When the basket trial has at least three subtrials, commensurate priors for point-to-point borrowing are combined into a marginal predictive prior, according to the weights transformed from the pairwise discrepancy measures. In this way, only information from subtrial(s) with the most commensurate treatment effect is leveraged. The marginal predictive prior is updated to a robust posterior by the contemporary subtrial data to inform decision making. Operating characteristics of the proposed methodology are evaluated through simulations motivated by a real basket trial in chronic diseases. The proposed methodology has advantages compared to other selected Bayesian analysis models, for (i) identifying the most commensurate source of information and (ii) gauging the degree of borrowing from specific subtrials. Numerical results also suggest that our methodology can improve the precision of estimates and, potentially, the statistical power for hypothesis testing.

Online multiple hypothesis testing.

Modern data analysis frequently involves large-scale hypothesis testing, which naturally gives rise to the problem of maintaining control of a suitable type I error rate, such as the false discovery rate (FDR). In many biomedical and technological applications, an additional complexity is that hypotheses are tested in an online manner, one-by-one over time. However, traditional procedures that control the FDR, such as the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure, assume that all p-values are available to be tested at a single time point. To address these challenges, a new field of methodology has developed over the past 15 years showing how to control error rates for online multiple hypothesis testing. In this framework, hypotheses arrive in a stream, and at each time point the analyst decides whether to reject the current hypothesis based both on the evidence against it, and on the previous rejection decisions. In this paper, we present a comprehensive exposition of the literature on online error rate control, with a review of key theory as well as a focus on applied examples. We also provide simulation results comparing different online testing algorithms and an up-to-date overview of the many methodological extensions that have been proposed.

Bayesian sample size determination using commensurate priors to leverage preexperimental data.

This paper develops Bayesian sample size formulae for experiments comparing two groups, where relevant preexperimental information from multiple sources can be incorporated in a robust prior to support both the design and analysis. We use commensurate predictive priors for borrowing of information and further place Gamma mixture priors on the precisions to account for preliminary belief about the pairwise (in)commensurability between parameters that underpin the historical and new experiments. Averaged over the probability space of the new experimental data, appropriate sample sizes are found according to criteria that control certain aspects of the posterior distribution, such as the coverage probability or length of a defined density region. Our Bayesian methodology can be applied to circumstances that compare two normal means, proportions, or event times. When nuisance parameters (such as variance) in the new experiment are unknown, a prior distribution can further be specified based on preexperimental data. Exact solutions are available based on most of the criteria considered for Bayesian sample size determination, while a search procedure is described in cases for which there are no closed-form expressions. We illustrate the application of our sample size formulae in the design of clinical trials, where pretrial information is available to be leveraged. Hypothetical data examples, motivated by a rare-disease trial with an elicited expert prior opinion, and a comprehensive performance evaluation of the proposed methodology are presented.

Online error rate control for platform trials.

Platform trials evaluate multiple experimental treatments under a single master protocol, where new treatment arms are added to the trial over time. Given the multiple treatment comparisons, there is the potential for inflation of the overall type I error rate, which is complicated by the fact that the hypotheses are tested at different times and are not necessarily pre-specified. Online error rate control methodology provides a possible solution to the problem of multiplicity for platform trials where a relatively large number of hypotheses are expected to be tested over time. In the online multiple hypothesis testing framework, hypotheses are tested one-by-one over time, where at each time-step an analyst decides whether to reject the current null hypothesis without knowledge of future tests but based solely on past decisions. Methodology has recently been developed for online control of the false discovery rate as well as the familywise error rate (FWER). In this article, we describe how to apply online error rate control to the platform trial setting, present extensive simulation results, and give some recommendations for the use of this new methodology in practice. We show that the algorithms for online error rate control can have a substantially lower FWER than uncorrected testing, while still achieving noticeable gains in power when compared with the use of a Bonferroni correction. We also illustrate how online error rate control would have impacted a currently ongoing platform trial.

Bayesian borrowing for basket trials with longitudinal outcomes.

Basket trials are a novel clinical trial design in which a single intervention is investigated in multiple patient subgroups, or "baskets." They offer the opportunity to share information between subgroups, potentially increasing power to detect treatment effects. Basket trials offer several advantages over running a series of separate trials, including reduced sample sizes, increased efficiency, and reduced costs. Primarily, basket trials have been undertaken in Phase II oncology settings, but could be a promising design in other areas where a shared underlying biological mechanism drives different diseases. One such area is chronic aging-related diseases. However, trials in this area frequently have longitudinal outcomes, and therefore suitable methods are needed to share information in this setting. In this paper, we extend three Bayesian borrowing methods for a basket design with continuous longitudinal endpoints. We demonstrate our methods on a real-world dataset and in a simulation study where the aim is to detect positive basketwise treatment effects. Methods are compared with standalone analysis of each basket without borrowing. Our results confirm that methods that share information can improve power to detect positive treatment effects and increase precision over independent analysis in many scenarios. In highly heterogeneous scenarios, there is a trade-off between increased power and increased risk of type I errors. Our proposed methods for basket trials with continuous longitudinal outcomes aim to facilitate their applicability in the area of aging related diseases. Choice of method should be made based on trial priorities and the expected basketwise distribution of treatment effects.

A hybrid approach to comparing parallel-group and stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trials with a continuous primary outcome when there is uncertainty in the intra-cluster correlation.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: To evaluate how uncertainty in the intra-cluster correlation impacts whether a parallel-group or stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial design is more efficient in terms of the required sample size, in the case of cross-sectional stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trials and continuous outcome data. METHODS: We motivate our work by reviewing how the intra-cluster correlation and standard deviation were justified in 54 health technology assessment reports on cluster-randomized trials. To enable uncertainty at the design stage to be incorporated into the design specification, we then describe how sample size calculation can be performed for cluster- randomized trials in the 'hybrid' framework, which places priors on design parameters and controls the expected power in place of the conventional frequentist power. Comparison of the parallel-group and stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial designs is conducted by placing Beta and truncated Normal priors on the intra-cluster correlation, and a Gamma prior on the standard deviation. RESULTS: Many Health Technology Assessment reports did not adhere to the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials guideline of indicating the uncertainty around the assumed intra-cluster correlation, while others did not justify the assumed intra-cluster correlation or standard deviation. Even for a prior intra-cluster correlation distribution with a small mode, moderate prior densities on high intra-cluster correlation values can lead to a stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial being more efficient because of the degree to which a stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial is more efficient for high intra-cluster correlations. With careful specification of the priors, the designs in the hybrid framework can become more robust to, for example, an unexpectedly large value of the outcome variance. CONCLUSION: When there is difficulty obtaining a reliable value for the intra-cluster correlation to assume at the design stage, the proposed methodology offers an appealing approach to sample size calculation. Often, uncertainty in the intra-cluster correlation will mean a stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial is more efficient than a parallel-group cluster-randomized trial design.

Imaging breast cancer using hyperpolarized carbon-13 MRI.

Our purpose is to investigate the feasibility of imaging tumor metabolism in breast cancer patients using 13C magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging (MRSI) of hyperpolarized 13C label exchange between injected [1-13C]pyruvate and the endogenous tumor lactate pool. Treatment-naïve breast cancer patients were recruited: four triple-negative grade 3 cancers; two invasive ductal carcinomas that were estrogen and progesterone receptor-positive (ER/PR+) and HER2/neu-negative (HER2-), one grade 2 and one grade 3; and one grade 2 ER/PR+ HER2- invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC). Dynamic 13C MRSI was performed following injection of hyperpolarized [1-13C]pyruvate. Expression of lactate dehydrogenase A (LDHA), which catalyzes 13C label exchange between pyruvate and lactate, hypoxia-inducible factor-1 (HIF1α), and the monocarboxylate transporters MCT1 and MCT4 were quantified using immunohistochemistry and RNA sequencing. We have demonstrated the feasibility and safety of hyperpolarized 13C MRI in early breast cancer. Both intertumoral and intratumoral heterogeneity of the hyperpolarized pyruvate and lactate signals were observed. The lactate-to-pyruvate signal ratio (LAC/PYR) ranged from 0.021 to 0.473 across the tumor subtypes (mean ± SD: 0.145 ± 0.164), and a lactate signal was observed in all of the grade 3 tumors. The LAC/PYR was significantly correlated with tumor volume (R = 0.903, P = 0.005) and MCT 1 (R = 0.85, P = 0.032) and HIF1α expression (R = 0.83, P = 0.043). Imaging of hyperpolarized [1-13C]pyruvate metabolism in breast cancer is feasible and demonstrated significant intertumoral and intratumoral metabolic heterogeneity, where lactate labeling correlated with MCT1 expression and hypoxia.

Advantages of multi-arm non-randomised sequentially allocated cohort designs for Phase II oncology trials.

BACKGROUND: Efficient trial designs are required to prioritise promising drugs within Phase II trials. Adaptive designs are examples of such designs, but their efficiency is reduced if there is a delay in assessing patient responses to treatment. METHODS: Motivated by the WIRE trial in renal cell carcinoma (NCT03741426), we compare three trial approaches to testing multiple treatment arms: (1) single-arm trials in sequence with interim analyses; (2) a parallel multi-arm multi-stage trial and (3) the design used in WIRE, which we call the Multi-Arm Sequential Trial with Efficient Recruitment (MASTER) design. The MASTER design recruits patients to one arm at a time, pausing recruitment to an arm when it has recruited the required number for an interim analysis. We conduct a simulation study to compare how long the three different trial designs take to evaluate a number of new treatment arms. RESULTS: The parallel multi-arm multi-stage and the MASTER design are much more efficient than separate trials. The MASTER design provides extra efficiency when there is endpoint delay, or recruitment is very quick. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend the MASTER design as an efficient way of testing multiple promising cancer treatments in non-comparative Phase II trials.

Practical guidance for planning resources required to support publicly-funded adaptive clinical trials.

Adaptive designs are a class of methods for improving efficiency and patient benefit of clinical trials. Although their use has increased in recent years, research suggests they are not used in many situations where they have potential to bring benefit. One barrier to their more widespread use is a lack of understanding about how the choice to use an adaptive design, rather than a traditional design, affects resources (staff and non-staff) required to set-up, conduct and report a trial. The Costing Adaptive Trials project investigated this issue using quantitative and qualitative research amongst UK Clinical Trials Units. Here, we present guidance that is informed by our research, on considering the appropriate resourcing of adaptive trials. We outline a five-step process to estimate the resources required and provide an accompanying costing tool. The process involves understanding the tasks required to undertake a trial, and how the adaptive design affects them. We identify barriers in the publicly funded landscape and provide recommendations to trial funders that would address them. Although our guidance and recommendations are most relevant to UK non-commercial trials, many aspects are relevant more widely.

The role of comorbidities alongside patient and disease characteristics in long-term disease activity in RA using UK inception cohort data.

OBJECTIVES: Control of disease activity in RA is a crucial part of its management to prevent long-term joint damage and disability. This study aimed to identify early predictors of poor disease activity at 5 and 10 years, focusing on comorbidities and clinical/sociodemographic factors at first presentation. METHODS: Patients from two UK-based RA cohorts were classified into two groups; low (<3.2) and moderate/high (≥3.2) DAS using 28 joint counts (DAS28) at 5/10 years. Clinical variables (e.g. rheumatoid nodules, erosions), sociodemographic factors (e.g. ethnicity, deprivation) and comorbidities were recorded at baseline and yearly thereafter. The Rheumatic Diseases Comorbidity Index quantified patient comorbidity burden. Binary logistic regression models (outcome low vs moderate/high DAS28) were fitted using multiple imputation. RESULTS: A total of 2701 patients living with RA were recruited (mean age 56.1 years, 66.9% female); 5-year data were available for 1718 (63.4%) patients and 10-year data for 820 (30.4%). Baseline Rheumatic Diseases Comorbidity Index was not associated with DAS28 at 5 [odds ratio (OR) 1.05, 95% CI 0.91, 1.22] or 10 years (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.75, 1.31) in multivariable analyses. Sociodemographic factors (female gender, worse deprivation) and poorer baseline HAQ-Disability Index were associated with DAS28 ≥3.2 at both timepoints. Being seropositive was associated with 5-year DAS28 ≥3.2. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates an association between sociodemographic and clinical factors and long-term RA disease activity, in models adjusting for comorbidity burden. The findings call for more holistic and targeted patient management in patients with RA and provide insights for more individualized management plans even on first presentation to rheumatology.

Predictors of poor function in RA based on two prospective UK inception cohorts. Do comorbidities matter?

OBJECTIVES: Evidence suggests that factors beyond disease activity associate with functional disability in RA. The primary study objective was to explore associations between comorbidities, sociodemographic factors and functional outcomes at five and 10 years. METHODS: RA patients from two UK prospective cohorts were grouped into low (<1.5) and high (≥1.5) five- and 10-year health assessment questionnaire (HAQ) score. Clinical variables (e.g. disease activity, rheumatoid nodules, erosions) and sociodemographic factors (e.g. ethnicity, deprivation) were recorded at baseline and yearly thereafter. Comorbidity was measured using the Rheumatic Diseases Comorbidity Index (RDCI). Binary logistic regression models were fitted using multiple imputation. RESULTS: In total, 2701 RA patients were recruited (mean age 56.1 years, 66.9% female). A total of 1718 (63.4%) had five-year and 820 (30.4%) 10-year follow-up data. In multivariable analysis, no association was found between RDCI and HAQ ≥ 1.5 at five or 10 years. Sociodemographic factors (increased age at disease onset, female gender, minority ethnicity) were associated with higher odds of HAQ ≥ 1.5 at five and 10 years, with worse deprivation additionally associated with HAQ ≥ 1.5 at 10 years (OR 0.79, 95% CI: 0.69, 0.90). CONCLUSION: Comorbidities at baseline have not been found to be associated with worse RA functional outcome in the long-term. On the other hand, sociodemographic factors, independently of disease measures, are associated with worse functional outcome in RA at five and 10 years, in models adjusting for comorbidity burden. Tailoring management interventions according to not only clinical disease parameters but also patient sociodemographic factors may improve long-term outcomes including functional disability.

Prediction of dementia using diffusion tensor MRI measures: the OPTIMAL collaboration.

OBJECTIVES: It has been suggested that diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) measures sensitive to white matter (WM) damage may predict future dementia risk not only in cerebral small vessel disease (SVD), but also in mild cognitive impairment. To determine whether DTI measures were associated with cognition cross-sectionally and predicted future dementia risk across the full range of SVD severity, we established the International OPtimising mulTImodal MRI markers for use as surrogate markers in trials of Vascular Cognitive Impairment due to cerebrAl small vesseL disease collaboration which included six cohorts. METHODS: Among the six cohorts, prospective data with dementia incidences were available for three cohorts. The associations between six different DTI measures and cognition or dementia conversion were tested. The additional contribution to prediction of other MRI markers of SVD was also determined. RESULTS: The DTI measure mean diffusivity (MD) median correlated with cognition in all cohorts, demonstrating the contribution of WM damage to cognition. Adding MD median significantly improved the model fit compared to the clinical risk model alone and further increased in all single-centre SVD cohorts when adding conventional MRI measures. Baseline MD median predicted dementia conversion. In a study with severe SVD (SCANS) change in MD median also predicted dementia conversion. The area under the curve was best when employing a multimodal MRI model using both DTI measures and other MRI measures. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support a central role for WM alterations in dementia pathogenesis in all cohorts. DTI measures such as MD median may be a useful clinical risk predictor. The contribution of other MRI markers varied according to disease severity.

Improving power in PSA response analyses of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer trials.

BACKGROUND: To determine how much an augmented analysis approach could improve the efficiency of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) response analyses in clinical practice. PSA response rates are commonly used outcome measures in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) trial reports. PSA response is evaluated by comparing continuous PSA data (e.g., change from baseline) to a threshold (e.g., 50% reduction). Consequently, information in the continuous data is discarded. Recent papers have proposed an augmented approach that retains the conventional response rate, but employs the continuous data to improve precision of estimation. METHODS: A literature review identified published prostate cancer trials that included a waterfall plot of continuous PSA data. This continuous data was extracted to enable the conventional and augmented approaches to be compared. RESULTS: Sixty-four articles, reporting results for 78 mCRPC treatment arms, were re-analysed. The median efficiency gain from using the augmented analysis, in terms of the implied increase to the sample size of the original study, was 103.2% (IQR [89.8,190.9%]). CONCLUSIONS: Augmented PSA response analysis requires no additional data to be collected and can be performed easily using available software. It improves precision of estimation to a degree that is equivalent to a substantial sample size increase. The implication of this work is that prostate cancer trials using PSA response as a primary endpoint could be delivered with fewer participants and, therefore, more rapidly with reduced cost.

Capturing the real-world benefit of residual ß-cell function during clinically important time-periods in established Type 1 diabetes.

AIMS: Many individuals with type 1 diabetes retain residual ß-cell function, with increased endogenous insulin secretion associated with reduced hyperglycaemia, hypoglycaemia and glycaemic variability. However, it is unknown when these improvements occur during the day. Dysglycaemia is common in overnight and postprandial periods and associated with diabetes complications. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the influence of residual ß-cell function upon nocturnal and postprandial glycaemic control in established type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Under free-living conditions, 66 participants wore a blinded continuous glucose monitor (CGM), kept a food diary, and completed a stimulated urine C-peptide creatinine (UCPCR) test. Nocturnal, and postprandial CGM outcomes (participant means and discrete event analysis) were compared between UCPCR groups: undetectable (Cpepund ), low (Cpeplow : 0.001-0.19 nmol/mmol) and high (Cpephigh : ≥0.2 nmol/mmol). RESULTS: Greater ß-cell function was associated with incremental improvements in glycaemia. Cpephigh spent significantly greater time in normoglycaemia than Cpepund overnight (76 ± 20% vs. 58 ± 20%, p = 0.005) and 0-300 mins postprandially (68 ± 22% vs. 51 ± 22%, p = 0.045), while also having reducing nocturnal variability (SD 1.12 ± 0.41 vs. 1.52 ± 0.43 mmol/L, p = 0.010). Analysis of individual events, controlling for diabetes duration, BMI, basal insulin, use of a continuous or flash glucose monitor and (for postprandial) meal type, carbohydrate and bolus insulin intake, replicated the group findings, additionally demonstrating Cpepund had increased hyperglycaemia versus Cpeplow overnight and increased postprandial hypoglycaemic events compared with Cpephigh . For all participants, breakfast had a significantly higher incremental area under the curve than lunch and dinner. CONCLUSIONS: Residual ß-cell function is associated with improved nocturnal and postprandial glycaemic control. These data may be of clinical importance for identifying specific periods and individuals where further glycaemic management strategies would be beneficial.

Bayesian sample size determination using commensurate priors to leverage pre-experimental data.

This paper develops Bayesian sample size formulae for experiments comparing two groups, where relevant pre-experimental information from multiple sources can be incorporated in a robust prior to support both the design and analysis. We use commensurate predictive priors for borrowing of information, and further place Gamma mixture priors on the precisions to account for preliminary belief about the pairwise (in)commensurability between parameters that underpin the historical and new experiments. Averaged over the probability space of the new experimental data, appropriate sample sizes are found according to criteria that control certain aspects of the posterior distribution, such as the coverage probability or length of a defined density region. Our Bayesian methodology can be applied to circumstances that compare two normal means, proportions or event times. When nuisance parameters (such as variance) in the new experiment are unknown, a prior distribution can further be specified based on pre-experimental data. Exact solutions are available based on most of the criteria considered for Bayesian sample size determination, while a search procedure is described in cases for which there are no closed-form expressions. We illustrate the application of our sample size formulae in the design of clinical trials, where pre-trial information is available to be leveraged. Hypothetical data examples, motivated by a rare-disease trial with elicited expert prior opinion, and a comprehensive performance evaluation of the proposed methodology are presented.