Comparing Predicted Probability of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Cirrhosis With the General Population: An Opportunity to Improve Risk Communication?

INTRODUCTION: Risk scores estimating a patient's probability of a hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosis are abundant but are difficult to interpret in isolation. We compared the predicted HCC probability for individuals with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C with the general population (GP). METHODS: All patients with cirrhosis achieving sustained viral response (SVR) in Scotland by April 2018 were included (N = 1,803). The predicted 3-year probability of HCC at time of SVR achievement was determined using the aMAP prognostic model. GP data on the total number of incident HCCs in Scotland, stratified by demographics, were obtained from Public Health Scotland. Predicted HCC risk of cirrhosis SVR patients was compared with GP incidence using 2 metrics: (i) incidence ratio: i.e., 3-year predicted probability for a given patient divided by the 3-year probability in GP for the equivalent demographic group and (ii) absolute risk difference: the 3-year predicted probability minus the 3-year probability in the GP. RESULTS: The mean predicted 3-year HCC probability among cirrhosis SVR patients was 3.64% (range: 0.012%-36.12%). Conversely, the 3-year HCC probability in the GP was much lower, ranging from <0.0001% to 0.25% depending on demographics. The mean incidence ratio was 410, ranging from 5 to >10,000. The mean absolute risk difference was 3.61%, ranging from 0.012% to 35.9%. An online HCC-GP comparison calculator for use by patients/clinicians is available at https://thrive-svr.shinyapps.io/RShiny/ . DISCUSSION: Comparing a patient's predicted HCC probability with the GP is feasible and may help clinicians communicate risk information and encourage screening uptake.

Declining incidence of hepatitis C related hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of interferon-free therapies: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The impact of interferon (IFN)-free therapies on the epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is not well understood at a population level. Our goal was to bridge this evidence gap. METHODS: This study included all patients in Scotland with chronic HCV and a diagnosis of cirrhosis during 1999-2019. Incident cases of HCC, episodes of curative HCC therapy, and HCC-related deaths were identified through linkage to nationwide registries. Three time periods were examined: 1999-2010 (pegylated interferon-ribavirin [PIR]); 2011-2013 (First-generation DAA); and 2014-2019 (IFN-free era). We used regression modelling to determine time trends for (i) number diagnosed and living with HCV cirrhosis, (ii) HCC cumulative incidence, (iii) HCC curative treatment uptake and (iv) post-HCC mortality. RESULTS: 3347 cirrhosis patients were identified of which 381 (11.4%) developed HCC. After HCC diagnosis, 140 (36.7%) received curative HCC treatment and there were 202 deaths from HCC. The average annual number of patients diagnosed and living with HCV cirrhosis was approximately seven times higher in the IFN-free versus the PIR era, whereas the number of incident HCCs was four times higher. However, the cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly lower in the IFN-free versus PIR era (sdHR: 0.65; 95%CI:0.47-0.88; P = .006). Among HCC patients, diagnosis in the IFN-free era was not associated with improved uptake of curative treatment (aOR:1.18; 95%CI:0.69-2.01; P = .54), or reduced post-HCC mortality (sdHR: 0.74; 95%CI:0.53-1.05; P = .09). CONCLUSIONS: The cumulative incidence of HCC is declining in HCV cirrhosis patients, but uptake of curative HCC therapy and post-HCC survival remains suboptimal.

Uptake of interferon-free DAA therapy among HCV-infected decompensated cirrhosis patients and evidence for decreased mortality.

Interferon-free DAA therapies have recently been licensed for patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) who have decompensated cirrhosis (DC). Our aim was to describe factors associated with uptake of IFN-free DAAs in DC patients and to compare mortality risk and hospital admission rates between pre-DAA and DAA eras. This observational study used record-linkage between Scotland's HCV Clinical Database and national inpatient hospitalization and mortality registers. For the DAA uptake analysis, the study population (n = 297) was restricted to patients alive on 1 November 2014, and Cox regression was used to estimate uptake associated with various covariates. For the Cox regression of mortality comparing pre-DAA and DAA eras, the study population (n = 624) comprised those diagnosed with DC in 2005-2018; follow-up was censored at two years. DAA uptake was 63% overall and was significantly higher for treatment-experienced patients (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.64, 95% CI:1.14-2.34), genotype 1 vs. other genotypes (aHR = 1.55. 95% CI:1.15-2.10) and lower for persons diagnosed with DC pre-2014 (0.47, 95% CI:0.33-0.68) and in Greater Glasgow (0.64, 95% CI:0.47-0.88). The intention-to-treat SVR rate was 89% (95% CI:83-93%). All-cause and liver-related mortality risk were significantly reduced among patients diagnosed with DC in the DAA era (November 2014-December 2018) compared with the pre-DAA era (2005-October 2014) (aHRs of 0.68, 95% CI:0.49-0.93; 0.69, 95% CI:0.50-0.95, respectively); in contrast, hospital admission rates were higher in the DAA era (aRR = 1.14, 95% CI:1.04-1.26). The majority of HCV-infected DC patients engaged with specialist services can be treated with IFN-free DAAs. Improved survival among patients diagnosed with DC in the DAA era supports the beneficial impact of IFN-free therapies among those with advanced liver disease.

Real-world utility of HCV core antigen as an alternative to HCV RNA testing: Implications for viral load and genotype.

Following positive serology, the gold standard confirmatory test of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is detection of HCV RNA by PCR. We assessed the utility of HCV core antigen testing to identify active infection among those positive for anti-HCV antibodies, when introduced to routine testing. We identified serum samples that were tested at a single laboratory in Scotland from June 2011to December 2017. Serum samples testing positive for HCV antibodies (HCV Ab positive) followed by reflex HCV core antigen (Ag) testing during the study period were identified. Those patients for whom a PCR test was requested on the baseline sample were also identified. For this group, the sensitivity and specificity of HCV Ag as a diagnostic tool were assessed using HCV PCR as gold standard. In our cohort of 744 patients, we demonstrated a sensitivity of 82.1% (95% CI 77.1%-86.2%) and a specificity of 99.8% (95% CI 98.6%-100%). Genotype 3 was associated with increased odds of a false-negative result (OR = 3.59, 95% CI: 1.32-9.71), and reduced odds of a false negative were associated with older age (odds ratio (OR)=0.92, 95% CI: 0.88-0.97 per year) and viral load (OR = 0.10, 95% CI: 0.05-0.21 per log10 IU/ml). While the implementation of HCV core antigen testing for diagnosis could lead to significant cost savings in national screening programmes, our data suggest that a significant proportion of HCV-infected individuals may be missed. These findings have implications for HCV diagnosis and determination of viral clearance after treatment, particularly in low- and middle-income regions, where genotype 3 is prevalent.

Real-world impact following initiation of interferon-free hepatitis C regimens on liver-related outcomes and all-cause mortality among patients with compensated cirrhosis.

Few studies have investigated clinical outcomes among patients with cirrhosis who were treated with interferon (IFN)-free direct-acting antiviral (DAA). We aimed to quantify treatment impact on first decompensated cirrhosis hospital admission, first hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) admission, liver-related mortality and all-cause mortality among a national cohort of cirrhotic patients. Through record linkage between Scotland's HCV Clinical Database and inpatient/day-case hospitalization and deaths records, a study population comprising chronic HCV-infected patients with compensated cirrhosis and initiated on IFN-free DAA between 1 March 2013 and 31 March 2018 was analysed. Cox regression evaluated the association of each clinical outcome with time-dependent treatment status (on treatment, responder, nonresponder or noncompliant), adjusting for patient factors including Child-Pugh class. Among the study population (n = 1073) involving 1809 years of follow-up, 75 (7.0%) died (39 from liver-related causes), 47 progressed to decompensated cirrhosis, and 28 developed HCC. Compared with nonresponders, treatment response (96% among those attending their 12 weeks post-treatment SVR test) was associated with a reduced relative risk of decompensated cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.14; 95% CI: 0.05-0.39), HCC (HR = 0.17; 95% CI: 0.04-0.79), liver-related death (HR = 0.13; 95% CI: 0.05-0.34) and all-cause mortality (HR = 0.30; 95% CI: 0.12-0.76). Compared with responders, noncompliant patients had an increased risk of liver-related (HR = 6.73; 95% CI: 2.99-15.1) and all-cause (HR = 5.45; 95% CI: 3.07-9.68) mortality. For HCV patients with cirrhosis, a treatment response was associated with a lower risk of severe liver complications and improved survival. Our findings suggest additional effort is warranted to address the higher mortality among the minority of cirrhotic patients who do not comply with DAA treatment or associated RNA testing.

Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 during the first three waves in Scotland: a national record linkage study.

BACKGROUND: The early COVID-19 pandemic in Scotland-defined as the era before widespread access to vaccination and monoclonal antibody treatment-can be characterised into three distinct waves: March-July 2020, July 2020-April 2021 and May-August 2021. Each wave was met with various societal restrictions in an effort to reduce disease transmission and associated morbidity and mortality. Understanding the epidemiology of infections during these waves can provide valuable insights into future pandemic planning. METHODS: Scottish RT-PCR testing data reported up until 8 August 2021, the day prior to most restrictions being lifted in Scotland, were included. Demographic characteristics including age, sex and social deprivation associated with transmission, morbidity and mortality were compared across waves. A case-control analysis for each wave was then modelled to further compare risk factors associated with death over time. RESULTS: Of the 349 904 reported cases, there were 18 099, 197 251 and 134 554 in waves 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Hospitalisations, intensive care unit admissions and deaths appeared highest in wave 2, though risk factors associated with COVID-19 death remained similar across the waves. Higher deprivation and certain comorbidities were associated with higher deaths in all waves. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the higher number of cases reported in waves 2 and 3, case fatality rates were lower: likely a combination of improved detection of infections in younger age groups, introduction of social measures and vaccination. Higher social deprivation and comorbidities resulted in higher deaths for all waves.

Competing Risk Bias in Prognostic Models Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Occurrence: Impact on Clinical Decision-making.

Background and Aims: Existing models predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence do not account for competing risk events and, thus, may overestimate the probability of HCC. Our goal was to quantify this bias for patients with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C. Methods: We analyzed a nationwide cohort of patients with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C infection from Scotland. Two HCC prognostic models were developed: (1) a Cox regression model ignoring competing risk events and (2) a Fine-Gray regression model accounting for non-HCC mortality as a competing risk. Both models included the same set of prognostic factors used by previously developed HCC prognostic models. Two predictions were calculated for each patient: first, the 3-year probability of HCC predicted by model 1 and second, the 3-year probability of HCC predicted by model 2. Results: The study population comprised 1629 patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV, followed for 3.8 years on average. A total of 82 incident HCC events and 159 competing risk events (ie, non-HCC deaths) were observed. The mean predicted 3-year probability of HCC was 3.37% for model 1 (Cox) and 3.24% for model 2 (Fine-Gray). For most patients (76%), the difference in the 3-year probability of HCC predicted by model 1 and model 2 was minimal (ie, within 0 to ±0.3%). A total of 2.6% of patients had a large discrepancy exceeding 2%; however, these were all patients with a 3-year probability exceeding >5% in both models. Conclusion: Prognostic models that ignore competing risks do overestimate the future probability of developing HCC. However, the degree of overestimation-and the way it is patterned-means that the impact on HCC screening decisions is likely to be modest.

Performance of models to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk among UK patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV infection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models can inform clinical decisions about HCC screening provided their predictions are robust. We conducted an external validation of 6 HCC prediction models for UK patients with cirrhosis and a HCV virological cure. METHODS: Patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV were identified from the Scotland HCV clinical database (N = 2,139) and the STratified medicine to Optimise Treatment of Hepatitis C Virus (STOP-HCV) study (N = 606). We calculated patient values for 4 competing non-genetic HCC prediction models, plus 2 genetic models (for the STOP-HCV cohort only). Follow-up began at the date of sustained virological response (SVR) achievement. HCC diagnoses were identified through linkage to nation-wide cancer, hospitalisation, and mortality registries. We compared discrimination and calibration measures between prediction models. RESULTS: Mean follow-up was 3.4-3.9 years, with 118 (Scotland) and 40 (STOP-HCV) incident HCCs observed. The age-male sex-ALBI-platelet count score (aMAP) model showed the best discrimination; for example, the Concordance index (C-index) in the Scottish cohort was 0.77 (95% CI 0.73-0.81). However, for all models, discrimination varied by cohort (being better for the Scottish cohort) and by age (being better for younger patients). In addition, genetic models performed better in patients with HCV genotype 3. The observed 3-year HCC risk was 3.3% (95% CI 2.6-4.2) and 5.1% (3.5-7.0%) in the Scottish and STOP-HCV cohorts, respectively. These were most closely matched by aMAP, in which the mean predicted 3-year risk was 3.6% and 5.0% in the Scottish and STOP-HCV cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: aMAP was the best-performing model in terms of both discrimination and calibration and, therefore, should be used as a benchmark for rival models to surpass. This study underlines the opportunity for 'real-world' risk stratification in patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV. However, auxiliary research is needed to help translate an HCC risk prediction into an HCC-screening decision. LAY SUMMARY: Patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV are at high risk of developing liver cancer, although the risk varies substantially from one patient to the next. Risk calculator tools can alert clinicians to patients at high risk and thereby influence decision-making. In this study, we tested the performance of 6 risk calculators in more than 2,500 patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV. We show that some risk calculators are considerably better than others. Overall, we found that the 'aMAP' calculator worked the best, but more work is needed to convert predictions into clinical decisions.