Decision framework for chemotherapeutic interventions for metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Best supportive care has long been considered to be the standard therapy for metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). There is now evidence from randomized trials that a number of chemotherapy regimens can palliate cancer-related symptoms and modestly improve survival. We show how cost-effectiveness analyses can be used to make choices between different (ambulatory) chemotherapy regimens. METHODS: Clinical algorithms describing the diagnosis, staging, and treatment of metastatic NSCLC were incorporated into Statistics Canada's Population Health Model. Using consistent methodology, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of several chemotherapeutic interventions: a combination of vindesine (VDS) plus cisplatin, etoposide (VP-16) plus cisplatin, vinblastine (VLB) plus cisplatin, vinorelbine (Navelbine; NVB) plus cisplatin, paclitaxel (Taxol) plus cisplatin, and gemcitabine (GEM) and NVB alone. We calculated the total chemotherapy costs in 1995 Canadian dollars, the cost per case, the average life-years saved, and the cost per life-year saved. Using the Population Health Model, we then constructed an advanced decision framework that rank-ordered the various treatment regimens so as to optimize benefit below various cost-effectiveness thresholds. RESULTS: One regimen (VLB plus cisplatin) appears to result in better survival and lower health care expenditures than best supportive care. By use of cost-effectiveness thresholds of $25,000 and $50,000 per life-year gained, NVB plus cisplatin is the preferred regimen. When quality of life is considered, however, GEM is preferred to NVB plus cisplatin at a threshold value of $50,000. At thresholds of $75 000 and $100,000, paclitaxel plus cisplatin at a dose of 135 mg/m(2) is the preferred regimen. At thresholds of $50,000 and above, best supportive care is the least preferred regimen. CONCLUSIONS: This decision framework allows the comparison of different treatment regimens based on various cost-effectiveness thresholds. Our analysis also supports the use of chemotherapy regimens and the abandonment of best supportive care as the standard of care for patients with advanced NSCLC. [J Natl Cancer Inst 2000;92:1321-9].

Cost of combined modality interventions for stage III non-small-cell lung cancer.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness (CE) of new combined modality strategies in patients with stage III non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). METHODS: Recent studies suggest that combined modality therapy confers a survival advantage for patients with stage III NSCLC. Using the Statistics Canada (Ottawa, Canada) lung cancer costing model, we have evaluated the CE of these interventions using 1993 Canadian health care costs and the perspective of the government as payer in a universal health care system. RESULTS: We estimate that the cost to treat a stage IIIa NSCLC patient with preoperative and postoperative chemotherapy would increase by $15,886, and a similar combined modality approach with the addition of postoperative radiotherapy would increase the cost by $22,963. Chemoradiotherapy for stage IIIb NSCLC would produce a smaller incremental cost of approximately $8,912 per case. However, these approaches are remarkably cost-effective, with cost per life-year gained (LYG) ranging from $3,348 to $14,958. Administering all chemotherapy in the outpatient department would improve CE. For sensitivity analysis, we reduced the survival gain that resulted from the three interventions by 25% and 50%, and increased the hospital per diem rates by 10%, 20%, and 30%. CONCLUSION: Even with the most adverse assumptions, the CE estimates were all considered acceptable for new health care technologies in Canada. Overall, it appears that neoadjuvant therapy for stage IIIa NSCLC and combined modality therapy for stage IIIb NSCLC are cost-effective. Economic considerations should not be a barrier to their adoption.

Canada's Population Health Model (POHEM): a tool for performing economic evaluations of cancer control interventions.

This paper describes the Population Health Model (POHEM) developed by Statistics Canada and shows its usefulness in the evaluation of cancer control interventions and policy decision-making. Models of the costs of diagnosis and treatment of lung and breast cancer were developed and incorporated into POHEM. Then, POHEM was used to evaluate the economic impact of chemotherapy for advanced non-small cell lung cancer; reduced length of hospital stay following breast cancer surgery; and the provision of preventive tamoxifen to women at high risk of breast cancer. A lung cancer chemotherapy treatment decision framework was developed to rank order currently available chemotherapy regimens according to relative cost-effectiveness and cost-utility. Reducing post-surgical breast cancer hospitalisation with optimal home care support could produce major healthcare savings. However, the provision of preventive tamoxifen was estimated to have no population health benefit. This paper demonstrates that POHEM is an effective tool for performing economic evaluations of cancer control interventions and to inform healthcare policy decisions.

Estimates of the lifetime costs of breast cancer treatment in Canada.

A comprehensive understanding of the cost components of common illnesses is a necessary first step towards ensuring optimal use of scarce healthcare resources. Since breast cancer is the commonest malignancy affecting Canadian women, we estimated the direct healthcare costs associated with the lifetime management of a cohort of 17700 women diagnosed in 1995. Using a multiplicity of data sources, treatment algorithms, follow-up and disease progression patterns were determined by age (<50; >/=50 years) for all four stages of breast cancer at diagnosis, as well as for the management of local and distant recurrence. Statistics Canada's Population Health Model (POHEM) was used to integrate the data from the different sources and to estimate the lifetime costs, discounted at 0, 3 and 5% rates. The average undiscounted lifetime cost per case of treating women diagnosed with breast cancer varied by stage, from $36,340 for stage IV or metastatic disease, to $23,275 for stage I patients. The total cost of treatment for the cohort diagnosed in 1995 was estimated to be over 454 million Canadian dollars. Hospitalisation (mainly for initial treatment and terminal care) represented 63% of the lifetime costs of care delivery. Disease costing models are valuable tools for optimising the use of scare resources without compromising the health status of individual patients. The breast cancer costing model has recently been used to assess the cost impact and cost-effectiveness of providing radiotherapy to all patients undergoing breast surgery, and of performing outpatient breast surgery.

The economics of lung cancer management in Canada.

Because lung cancer is a major health care problem in Canada, it is imperative to understand how resources are used to diagnose and treat this disease. This paper describes a method of modelling the direct patient care costs for lung cancer from the perspective of the government as payer in a universal health care system. Clinical algorithms were developed to describe the management of non-small cell (NSCLC) and small cell (SCLC) lung cancer. Patients were allocated to the treatment algorithms in the model based on a knowledge of their distribution by cell type and stage in Canadian cases. A microsimulation model developed by Statistics Canada was used to integrate the data on type of lung cancer, extent of disease, clinical management, survival and health care resource utilization. The direct care costs for diagnosis and treatment of NSCLC ranged from $Cdn 17 889 for the surgery/post-operative radiotherapy treatment of Stages I and II to $Cdn 6333 for supportive care for patients with Stage IV disease. The costs of determining relapse for NSCLC were estimated to be $Cdn 1528 and terminal care costs, made up largely of hospitalization charges and some palliative radiotherapy, were $Cdn 10 331. Direct care costs for the diagnosis and initial treatment of SCLC ranged from $Cdn 18 691 for management of limited stage disease to $Cdn 4739 for the supportive care of patients with extensive disease. The cost of determining relapse for SCLC was estimated to be $Cdn 1590 and terminal care costs averaged $Cdn 9966. For all 15 624 cases of lung cancer diagnosed in Canada in 1988, it was estimated that the total cost of providing treatment and follow-up, and managing relapse over 5 years was $Cdn 328 million. Despite the large total cost of lung cancer management, estimates of cost effectiveness of therapy showed that the cost per life year gained was approximately $Cdn 11 000 for NSCLC and $Cdn 19 560 for SCLC. These estimates of the direct health care costs assume that all patients have access to care, treatment is uncomplicated and practice is standard, and must be viewed as an idealized assessment of the cost of lung cancer management. The microsimulation model, however, does provide a useful framework for evaluating the costs of new diagnostic procedures, treatment strategies and new drugs.

The cost of managing lung cancer in Canada.

The POpulation HEalth Model (POHEM) lung cancer microsimulation model has provided a useful framework for calculating the cost of managing individual cases of lung cancer in Canada by stage, cell type, and treatment modality, as well as the total economic burden of managing all cases of lung cancer diagnosed in Canada. These data allow an estimation of the overall cost effectiveness of lung cancer therapy. the model also provides a frame-work for evaluating the cost effectiveness of new therapeutic strategies, such as combined modality therapy for stage III disease or new chemotherapy drugs for stage IV disease. By expressing the cost of lung cancer treatment as cost of life-years gained, such analyses allows useful comparisons of the cost effectiveness of these treatments with those of other costly but accepted medical therapies.

The development of staging data for use in the microsimulation of lung cancer.

Lung cancer incidence rates by cell type and stage were required for a lung cancer microstimulation submodel developed at Statistics Canada. Lung cancer incidence rates not disaggregated by stage were calculated for different histological cell types using Canada's National Cancer Incidence Reporting System data. In the absence of national lung cancer staging information, staging data from the province of Alberta were collected and rates of occurrence were calculated for different stages of lung cancer at time of diagnosis. Imputation procedures were used to maximize the amount of usable staging data. The Alberta stage rates were combined with the Canadian incidence rates to obtain estimates needed by the microsimulation submodel of the annual probability of an individual of a particular sex and age being diagnosed with lung cancer of each cell type at each stage. This project, although highly specialized, illustrates the need for more extensive and standardized staging data for cancer in Canada.

Diagnostic and therapeutic approaches to lung cancer in Canada and their costs.

Escalating health care costs have made it imperative to evaluate the resources required to diagnose and treat major illnesses in Canadians. For Canadian men, lung cancer is not only the most common malignancy, but also the major cancer killer. As of 1994, lung cancer is expected to overtake breast cancer as the leading cause of cancer deaths in women. This paper presents a detailed description of the methodology used to determine the direct health care costs associated with 'standard' diagnostic and therapeutic approaches for lung cancer in Canada in 1988. Clinical algorithms were developed for each stage of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and small-cell lung cancer (SCLC). The algorithms were designed to take the form of decision trees for each clinical stage of lung cancer. The proportion of patients assigned to each branch was based upon questionnaire responses obtained from thoracic surgeons and radiation oncologists when presented with clinical scenarios, and information from provincial cancer registries. Direct care costs were derived primarily from one provincial fee schedule (Ontario), and costing information obtained during the conduct of several Canadian clinical trials in lung cancer. Direct costs for diagnosis and initial treatment of NSCLC (excluding relapse and terminal care costs) ranged from $17,889 for the surgery/post-operative radiotherapy arm of stages I and II to $6,333 for the supportive care arm (stage IV). The cost of determining relapse for NSCLC was estimated to be $1,528, and terminal care costs, which included palliative radiotherapy and hospitalisation, were $10,331. Direct costs for diagnosis and initial treatment of SCLC ranged from $18,691 for limited stage disease to $4,739 for the supportive care arm of extensive disease. The cost of diagnosing relapse for SCLC was estimated to be $1,590, and terminal care costs averaged $9,966. This report provides an estimate of the Canadian costs of managing lung cancer by stage and treatment modality. Because the actual costs of all components of care are not available from any combination of sources, these cost estimates must be viewed as an idealised estimate of the cost of lung cancer management. However, we believe that the lung cancer costing model that we have developed provides a level of sophistication which gives a reasonable estimate of the cost per case of treating NSCLC and SCLC.

Estimating the cost of lung cancer diagnosis and treatment in Canada: the POHEM model.

Because lung cancer is a major health care problem in Canada, it would be useful to identify the direct health care costs of diagnosing and treating this disease and to create an analytic framework within which diagnostic and therapeutic options can be assessed. This paper describes a method of modelling the costs of care for lung cancer. The perspective of the costing model is that of the government as payer in a universal health care system. Clinical algorithms were developed to describe the management of non-small cell (NSCLC) and small cell (SCLC) lung cancer. Patients were allocated to the treatment algorithms in the model, based on a knowledge of the stage distribution of cases within provincial cancer registries and an estimate of the use of therapeutic modalities, according to lung cancer experts. A microsimulation model (POHEM) developed at Statistics Canada was used to integrate data on risk factors, disease onset and progression, health care resource utilization and direct medical care costs. The model incorporates survival data on patients, according to cell type and stage, based on published studies. Relapse and terminal care costs were assigned during the year of death, in order to determine the cost of continuing care and the cumulative cost of lung cancer management over time. Patients surviving five years were assumed to be cured. The model estimates that the total five year cost to provide care to the 15,624 cases of lung cancer diagnosed in Canada in 1988 was in excess of $328 million. Over 82% of this total was spent in the first year for diagnostic tests, therapy (surgery, chemotherapy, radiation therapy, or combinations of these), hospitalization and follow-up costs. The average five year cost per case was $21,000, and ranged from a high of $29,860 for limited disease SCLC, to a low of $16,500 for Stage IV NSCLC. The actual cost of providing care, including the management of complications, is unknown and our estimates should be regarded as an idealized estimate of the cost of lung cancer management. However, the POHEM model has a level of sophistication which, we believe, reasonably reflects the cost per case and total costs of treating lung cancer by stage and therapeutic modality in Canada.

A model for estimating the costs and burdens of breast cancer diagnosis and treatment in Canada.

As health care costs continue to rise in Canada, there is a need to evaluate the resources required for diagnosing and treating the major diseases having an impact on Canadian. In 1993, breast cancer was the most predominant female cancer in Canada, both in terms of incidence and mortality. It would be useful to identify the direct health care costs associated with this disease and to create an analytical framework within which diagnostic and therapeutic options can be assessed. This paper provides a description of the approach to be taken in developing a realistic conceptual model of the management of all stages of breast cancer, including diagnostic and treatment approaches, survival outcomes and costs. It includes an outline of our research objectives, a description of the kind of information required, a section on the methodology and sources to be used, and a brief explanation of the analytical framework into which it will be incorporated and used.

Breast cancer: better care for less cost. Is it possible?

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the potential for cost reduction in the acute care setting and the required investment in the home care setting of implementing an outpatient/early discharge strategy for operable (stages I and II) breast cancer in Canada. METHODS: Data from a community hospital were augmented by expert knowledge and incorporated into the breast cancer submodel of Statistics Canada's Population Health Model. For the estimated 90% of patients for whom this approach was assumed to be appropriate, the resource utilization for outpatient breast-conserving surgery and 2 days of hospitalization for those women undergoing mastectomy was quantified and costed, as were the appropriate home care services. A 5% readmission rate for complications was assumed. Cost per case, total cost burden, investment in home care, savings in acute care, and net savings were calculated. Sensitivity analyses were performed around readmission rates and home care/surgical follow-up costs. All costs were determined in 1995 Canadian dollars. RESULTS: The cost of initial treatment for the 15,399 women diagnosed with stages I and II breast cancer in 1995 in Canada was estimated to be $127.6 million. Hospitalization made up 53% of these costs. Under the outpatient/early discharge strategy, the acute care cost of initial breast cancer management could be reduced by $47.2 million, with an investment in home care of $14.5 million ($453 per patient), resulting in an overall net saving of $33 million. Under this strategy, hospitalization would contribute only 21% to the total care cost. CONCLUSIONS: If Canadian surgeons and healthcare administrators were to work together to put in place processes to support ambulatory breast cancer surgery and if resources were redirected to the provision of home-based post-operative care, there would be potential for a large net healthcare saving and preservation of high-quality patient care.

Diagnostic and therapeutic approaches for nonmetastatic breast cancer in Canada, and their associated costs.

In an era of fiscal restraint, it is important to evaluate the resources required to diagnose and treat serious illnesses. As breast cancer is the major malignancy affecting Canadian women, Statistics Canada has analysed the resources required to manage this disease in Canada, and the associated costs. Here we report the cost of initial diagnosis and treatment of nonmetastatic breast cancer, including adjuvant therapies. Treatment algorithms for Stages I, II, and III of the disease were derived by age group (< 50 or > or = 50 years old), principally from Canadian cancer registry data, supplemented, where necessary, by the results of surveys of Canadian oncologists. Data were obtained on breast cancer incidence by age, diagnostic work-up, stage at diagnosis, initial treatment, follow-up practice, duration of hospitalization and direct care costs. The direct health care costs associated with 'standard' diagnostic and therapeutic approaches were calculated for a cohort of 17,700 Canadian women diagnosed in 1995. Early stage (Stages I and II) breast cancer represented 87% of all incident cases, with 77% of cases occurring in women > or = 50 years. Variations were noted in the rate of partial vs total mastectomy, according to stage and age group. Direct costs for diagnosis and initial treatment ranged from $8014 for Stage II women > or = 50 years old, to $10,897 for Stage III women < 50 years old. Except for Stage III women < 50 years old, the largest expenditure was for hospitalization for surgery, followed by radiotherapy costs. Chemotherapy was the largest cost component for Stage III women < 50 years old. This report describes the cost of diagnosis and initial treatment of nonmetastatic breast cancer in Canada, assuming current practice patterns. A second report will describe the lifetime costs of treating all stages of breast cancer. These data will then be incorporated into Statistics Canada's Population Health Model (POHEM) to perform cost-effectiveness studies of new therapeutic interventions for breast cancer, such as the cost-effectiveness of day surgery, or of radiotherapy to all breast cancer patients undergoing breast surgery.

First do no harm: extending the debate on the provision of preventive tamoxifen.

The Breast Cancer Prevention Trial (BCPT-P-1) demonstrated that tamoxifen could reduce the risk of invasive breast cancer in high-risk women by 49%, but that it could also increase the risk of endometrial cancer, vascular events and cataracts. This paper provides an estimate of the net health impacts of tamoxifen administration on high-risk Canadian women with no prior history of breast cancer. The results of the BCPT-P-1 were incorporated into the breast cancer and other modules of Statistics Canada's microsimulation POpulation HEalth Model (POHEM). While the main intervention scenario conformed as closely as possible to the eligibility criteria for tamoxifen in the BCPT-P-1 protocol, 3 additional scenarios were simulated. Predicted absolute risks of breast cancer at 5 years of 1.66%, 3.32% and 4.15% were calculated for women 35 to 70 years of age. When the BCPT-P-1 results were incorporated into the simulation model, the analysis suggests no increase in life expectancy in this risk group. Tamoxifen appeared to be beneficial for women with a 5-year predicted risk of 3.32% or greater. The results of these simulations are particularly sensitive to the reduction in mortality observed in the BCPT-P-1, as well as being sensitive to other characteristics of the simulation model. Overall, the analysis raises questions about the use of tamoxifen in otherwise healthy women at high risk of breast cancer.