Developing stakeholder-driven scenarios on land sharing and land sparing - Insights from five European case studies.

Empirical research on land sharing and land sparing has been criticized because preferences of local stakeholders, socio-economic aspects, a bundle of ecosystem services and the local context were only rarely integrated. Using storylines and scenarios is a common approach to include land use drivers and local contexts or to cope with the uncertainties of future developments. The objective of the presented research is to develop comparable participatory regional land use scenarios for the year 2030 reflecting land sharing, land sparing and more intermediate developments across five different European landscapes (Austria, Germany, Switzerland, The Netherlands and Spain). In order to ensure methodological consistency among the five case studies, a hierarchical multi-scale scenario approach was developed, which consisted of i) the selection of a common global storyline to frame a common sphere of uncertainty for all case studies, ii) the definition of three contrasting qualitative European storylines (representing developments for land sharing, land sparing and a balanced storyline), and iii) the development of three explorative case study-specific land use scenarios with regional stakeholders in workshops. Land use transition rules defined by stakeholders were used to generate three different spatially-explicit scenarios for each case study by means of high-resolution land use maps. All scenarios incorporated various aspects of land use and management to allow subsequent quantification of multiple ecosystem services and biodiversity indicators. The comparison of the final scenarios showed both common as well as diverging trends among the case studies. For instance, stakeholders identified further possibilities to intensify land management in all case studies in the land sparing scenario. In addition, in most case studies stakeholders agreed on the most preferred scenario, i.e. either land sharing or balanced, and the most likely one, i.e. balanced. However, they expressed some skepticism regarding the general plausibility of land sparing in a European context. It can be concluded that stakeholder perceptions and the local context can be integrated in land sharing and land sparing contexts subject to particular process design principles.

Enhancing LULC scenarios impact assessment in hydrological dynamics using participatory mapping protocols in semiarid regions.

Land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios in rural catchment hydrology are crucial to describe the effects of future water dynamics. However, there is a lack of understanding of the effectiveness of including static land covers at the subbasin level to provide inter-annual stability in changing the different water balance components. We developed a step-by-step mapping protocol to extend and enrich the hydrological assessment of future LULC scenarios defined through participatory stakeholder involvement. This novelty included specific allocation of static and dynamic LULC change among the scenarios and then compared the change of water dynamics to the current situation. For this, we quantified the LULC impact on the components of the water balance from three contrasting participatory scenarios implemented with the SWAT model in a rural basin in central Spain. The Land-sharing scenario (LSH) had the highest percentage of permanent grassland and shrubs and no increase of irrigated land compared to baseline. The land-sparing scenario (LSP) intensified agricultural land use close to urban areas, and the land balance scenario (LBA) was intermediate. The LSH increased the aquifer recharge by +1.7% and streamflow by +1.5%, while evapotranspiration and soil water storage decreased by -0.2%. In contrast, the LBA decreased in the riverine flux of -0.5%, an aquifer recharge of -0.6%, a soil water storage of -3.5%, and an evapotranspiration rate of +0.3%. Thus, LSH revealed that the allocation of permanent land cover such as grassland could buffer water dynamics, suggesting that dedicated planning and allocation of permanently vegetated LULC will favour land and water conservation.

A comparison of the Mediterranean diet and current food consumption patterns in Spain from a nutritional and water perspective.

The promotion of responsible consumption is a key strategy to achieve environmental benefits, sustainable food security, and enhance public health. Countries like Spain are making efforts to reverse growing obesity and promote healthy diets, such as the recommended and traditional Mediterranean, recognized as a key strategy to improve the population's health with locally grown, traditional, and seasonal products like fruits, vegetables, olive oil, and fish. With a view to connecting water, agriculture, food security, nutrition and health, this research aims to investigate and compare the nutritional and water implications of the current food consumption of Spanish households with the recommended Mediterranean diet. Besides, we calculate their nutritional composition, compare their water footprints, and develop a new methodological approach to assess nutritional water productivity (i.e. the nutritional value per unit of embedded water). Results show that the current Spanish diet is shifting away from the recommended Mediterranean towards an alternative one containing three times more meat, dairy and sugar products, and a third fewer fruits, vegetables, and cereals. The Mediterranean diet is also less caloric, as it contains smaller amounts of proteins and fats and is richer in fiber and micronutrients. Due to the high-embedded water content in animal products, a shift towards a Mediterranean diet would reduce the consumptive WF about 750 l/capita day. Additionally, the Mediterranean diet has better water-nutritional efficiency than the current one: it provides more energy, fiber, and nutrients per liter of consumptive water. The study confirms the Mediterranean diet is a healthier and more sustainable diet with strong cultural heritage.

Drivers influencing streamflow changes in the Upper Turia basin, Spain.

Many rivers across the world have experienced a significant streamflow reduction over the last decades. Drivers of the observed streamflow changes are multiple, including climate change (CC), land use and land cover changes (LULCC), water transfers and river impoundment. Many of these drivers inter-act simultaneously, making it difficult to discern the impact of each driver individually. In this study we isolate the effects of LULCC on the observed streamflow reduction in the Upper Turia basin (east Spain) during the period 1973-2008. Regression models of annual streamflow are fitted with climatic variables and also additional time variant drivers like LULCC. The ecohydrological model SWAT is used to study the magnitude and sign of streamflow change when LULCC occurs. Our results show that LULCC does play a significant role on the water balance, but it is not the main driver underpinning the observed reduction on Turia's streamflow. Increasing mean temperature is the main factor supporting increasing evapotranspiration and streamflow reduction. In fact, LULCC and CC have had an offsetting effect on the streamflow generation during the study period. While streamflow has been negatively affected by increasing temperature, ongoing LULCC have positively compensated with reduced evapotranspiration rates, thanks to mainly shrubland clearing and forest degradation processes. These findings are valuable for the management of the Turia river basin, as well as a useful approach for the determination of the weight of LULCC on the hydrological response in other regions.

The role of Latin America's land and water resources for global food security: environmental trade-offs of future food production pathways.

One of humanity's major challenges of the 21st century will be meeting future food demands on an increasingly resource constrained-planet. Global food production will have to rise by 70 percent between 2000 and 2050 to meet effective demand which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity is an even greater challenge. This study looks at the interdependencies between land and water resources, agricultural production and environmental outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), an area of growing importance in international agricultural markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of LAC's agriculture for (a) global food security and (b) environmental sustainability. We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)-a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector-to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050, and assess changes in related environmental indicators. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Finally, our analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths.

Uncovering ecosystem service bundles through social preferences.

Ecosystem service assessments have increasingly been used to support environmental management policies, mainly based on biophysical and economic indicators. However, few studies have coped with the social-cultural dimension of ecosystem services, despite being considered a research priority. We examined how ecosystem service bundles and trade-offs emerge from diverging social preferences toward ecosystem services delivered by various types of ecosystems in Spain. We conducted 3,379 direct face-to-face questionnaires in eight different case study sites from 2007 to 2011. Overall, 90.5% of the sampled population recognized the ecosystem's capacity to deliver services. Formal studies, environmental behavior, and gender variables influenced the probability of people recognizing the ecosystem's capacity to provide services. The ecosystem services most frequently perceived by people were regulating services; of those, air purification held the greatest importance. However, statistical analysis showed that socio-cultural factors and the conservation management strategy of ecosystems (i.e., National Park, Natural Park, or a non-protected area) have an effect on social preferences toward ecosystem services. Ecosystem service trade-offs and bundles were identified by analyzing social preferences through multivariate analysis (redundancy analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis). We found a clear trade-off among provisioning services (and recreational hunting) versus regulating services and almost all cultural services. We identified three ecosystem service bundles associated with the conservation management strategy and the rural-urban gradient. We conclude that socio-cultural preferences toward ecosystem services can serve as a tool to identify relevant services for people, the factors underlying these social preferences, and emerging ecosystem service bundles and trade-offs.