Developing machine learning models to predict primary graft dysfunction after lung transplantation.

Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the first 30 days after lung transplantation. Risk factors for the development of PGD include donor and recipient characteristics, but how multiple variables interact to impact the development of PGD and how clinicians should consider these in making decisions about donor acceptance remain unclear. This was a single-center retrospective cohort study to develop and evaluate machine learning pipelines to predict the development of PGD grade 3 within the first 72 hours of transplantation using donor and recipient variables that are known at the time of donor offer acceptance. Among 576 bilateral lung recipients, 173 (30%) developed PGD grade 3. The cohort underwent a 75% to 25% train-test split, and lasso regression was used to identify 11 variables for model development. A K-nearest neighbor's model showing the best calibration and performance with relatively small confidence intervals was selected as the final predictive model with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.65. Machine learning models can predict the risk for development of PGD grade 3 based on data available at the time of donor offer acceptance. This may improve donor-recipient matching and donor utilization in the future.

Validation of a novel donor lung scoring system based on the updated lung Composite Allocation Score.

Lung transplantation (LTx) continues to have lower rates of long-term graft survival compared with other organs. Additionally, lung utilization rates from brain-dead donors remain substantially lower compared with other solid organs, despite a growing need for LTx and the significant risk of waitlist mortality. This study aims to examine the effects of using a combination of the recently described novel lung donor (LUNDON) acceptability score and the newly adopted recipient lung Composite Allocation Score (CAS) to guide transplantation. We performed a review of nearly 18 000 adult primary lung transplants from 2015-2022 across the US with retroactive calculations of the CAS value. The medium-CAS group (29.6-34.5) had superior 1-year posttransplant survival. Importantly, the combination of high-CAS (> 34.5) recipients with low LUNDON score (≤ 40) donors had the worst survival at 1 year compared with any other combination. Additionally, we constructed a model that predicts 1-year and 3-year survival using the LUNDON acceptability score and CAS values. These results suggest that caution should be exercised when using marginally acceptable donor lungs in high-priority recipients. The use of the LUNDON score with CAS value can potentially guide clinical decision-making for optimal donor-recipient matches for LTx.

Development and validation of the lung donor (LUNDON) acceptability score for pulmonary transplantation.

There is a chronic shortage of donor lungs for pulmonary transplantation due, in part, to low lung utilization rates in the United States. We performed a retrospective cohort study using data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients database (2006-2019) and developed the lung donor (LUNDON) acceptability score. A total of 83 219 brain-dead donors were included and were randomly divided into derivation (n = 58 314, 70%) and validation (n = 24 905, 30%) cohorts. The overall lung acceptance was 27.3% (n = 22 767). Donor factors associated with the lung acceptance were age, maximum creatinine, ratio of arterial partial pressure of oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen, mechanism of death by asphyxiation or drowning, history of cigarette use (≥20 pack-years), history of myocardial infarction, chest x-ray appearance, bloodstream infection, and the occurrence of cardiac arrest after brain death. The prediction model had high discriminatory power (C statistic, 0.891; 95% confidence interval, 0.886-0.895) in the validation cohort. We developed a web-based, user-friendly tool (available at https://sites.wustl.edu/lundon) that provides the predicted probability of donor lung acceptance. LUNDON score was also associated with recipient survival in patients with high lung allocation scores. In conclusion, the multivariable LUNDON score uses readily available donor characteristics to reliably predict lung acceptability. Widespread adoption of this model may standardize lung donor evaluation and improve lung utilization rates.

A pilot randomized controlled trial of de novo belatacept-based immunosuppression following anti-thymocyte globulin induction in lung transplantation.

The development of donor-specific antibodies (DSA) after lung transplantation is common and results in adverse outcomes. In kidney transplantation, Belatacept has been associated with a lower incidence of DSA, but experience with Belatacept in lung transplantation is limited. We conducted a two-center pilot randomized controlled trial of de novo immunosuppression with Belatacept after lung transplantation to assess the feasibility of conducting a pivotal trial. Twenty-seven participants were randomized to Control (Tacrolimus, Mycophenolate Mofetil, and prednisone, n = 14) or Belatacept-based immunosuppression (Tacrolimus, Belatacept, and prednisone until day 89 followed by Belatacept, Mycophenolate Mofetil, and prednisone, n = 13). All participants were treated with rabbit anti-thymocyte globulin for induction immunosuppression. We permanently stopped randomization and treatment with Belatacept after three participants in the Belatacept arm died compared to none in the Control arm. Subsequently, two additional participants in the Belatacept arm died for a total of five deaths compared to none in the Control arm (log rank p = .016). We did not detect a significant difference in DSA development, acute cellular rejection, or infection between the two groups. We conclude that the investigational regimen used in this study is associated with increased mortality after lung transplantation.

Different-team procurements: A potential solution for the unintended consequences of change in lung allocation policy.

The new lung allocation policy has led to an increase in distant donors and consequently enhanced logistical burden of procuring organs. Though early single-center studies noted similar outcomes between same-team transplantation (ST, procuring team from transplanting center) and different-team transplantation (DT, procuring team from different center), the efficacy of DT in the contemporary era remains unclear. In this study, we evaluated the trend of DT, rate of transplanting both donor lungs, 1-year graft survival, and risk of Grade 3 primary graft dysfunction (PGD) using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipient (SRTR) database from 2006 to 2018. A total of 21619 patients (DT 2085, 9.7%) with 19837 donors were included. Utilization of DT decreased from 15.9% in 2006 to 8.5% in 2018. Proportions of two-lung donors were similar between the groups, and DT had similar 1-year graft survival as ST for both double (DT, HR 1.108, 95% CI 0.894-1.374) and single lung transplants (DT, HR 1.094, 95% CI 0.931-1.286). Risk of Grade 3 PGD was also similar between ST and DT. Given our results, expanding DT may be a feasible option for improving lung procurement efficiency in the current era, particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Donor management using a specialized donor care facility is associated with higher organ utilization from drug overdose donors.

Drug overdoses have tripled in the United States over the last two decades. With the increasing demand for donor organs, one potential consequence of the opioid epidemic may be an increase in suitable donor organs. Unfortunately, organs from donors dying of drug overdose have poorer utilization rates than other groups of brain-dead donors, largely due to physician and recipient concerns about viral disease transmission. During the study period of 2011 to 2016, drug overdose donors (DODs) account for an increasingly greater proportion of the national donor pool. We show that a novel model of donor care, known as specialized donor care facility (SDCF), is associated with an increase in organ utilization from DODs compared to the conventional model of hospital-based donor care. This is likely related to the close relationship of the SDCF with the transplant centers, leading to improved communication and highly efficient donor care.

The use of ruxolitinib for acute graft-versus-host disease developing after solid organ transplantation.

Development of graft-versus-host disease (GvHD) is a rare complication after transfusions or solid organ transplantation. Patients typically present with a skin rash, diarrhea, liver failure, and bone marrow aplasia. A diagnosis of transfusion/transplantation associated-GvHD is made based on the clinical and histologic evidence, yet it is often delayed due to the nonspecific symptoms attributed to the patient's underlying illness. Several therapeutic approaches are being used including both increasing and withdrawing immunosuppression, and the use of cellular therapies. Unfortunately, the success rate of these approaches is low and the mortality of this complication is very high. New approaches are needed. We report on three cases of GvHD developing after solid organ transplantation treated with ruxolitinib.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa and acute rejection independently increase the risk of donor-specific antibodies after lung transplantation.

Factors contributing to donor-specific HLA antibody (DSA) development after lung transplantation have not been systematically evaluated. We hypothesized that the isolation of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in respiratory specimens would increase the risk of DSA development. Our objective was to determine the risk of DSA development associated with the isolation of Pseudomonas aeruginosa after lung transplantation. We conducted a single-center retrospective cohort study of primary lung transplant recipients and examined risk factors for DSA development using Cox regression models. Of 460 recipients, 205 (45%) developed DSA; the majority developed Class II DSA (n = 175, 85%), and 145 of 205 (71%) developed DSA to HLA-DQ alleles. Univariate time-dependent analyses revealed that isolation of Pseudomonas from respiratory specimens, acute cellular rejection, and lymphocytic bronchiolitis are associated with an increased risk of DSA development. In multivariable analyses, Pseudomonas isolation, acute cellular rejection, and lymphocytic bronchiolitis remained independent risk factors for DSA development. Additionally, there was a direct association between the number of positive Pseudomonas cultures and the risk of DSA development. Our findings suggest that pro-inflammatory events including acute cellular rejection, lymphocytic bronchiolitis, and Pseudomonas isolation after transplantation are associated with an increased risk of DSA development.

Rabbit antithymocyte globulin for the treatment of chronic lung allograft dysfunction.

BACKGROUND: Chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD) is the leading cause of death beyond the first year after lung transplantation. Several treatments have been used to prevent the progression or reverse the effects of CLAD. Cytolytic therapy with rabbit antithymocyte globulin (rATG) has previously shown to be a potential option. However, the effect on patients with restrictive allograft syndrome (RAS) versus bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) and the effect of cumulative dosing are unknown. METHODS: The charts of lung transplant patients treated with rATG at Barnes-Jewish Hospital from 2009 to 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. The primary outcome was response to rATG; patients were deemed responders if their FEV1 improved in the 6 months after rATG treatment. Safety endpoints included incidence of serum sickness, cytokine release syndrome, malignancy, and infectious complications. RESULTS: 108 patients were included in this study; 43 (40%) patients were responders who experienced an increase in FEV1 after rATG therapy. No predictors of response to rATG therapy were identified. Serum sickness occurred in 22% of patients, 15% experienced cytokine release syndrome, and 19% developed an infection after therapy. CONCLUSION: 40% of patients with CLAD have an improvement in lung function after treatment with rATG although the improvement was typically minimal.

Acute graft-versus-host disease following lung transplantation in a patient with a novel TERT mutation.

Familial pulmonary fibrosis is associated with loss-of-function mutations in telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) and short telomeres. Interstitial lung diseases have become the leading indication for lung transplantation in the USA, and recent data indicate that pathogenic mutations in telomerase may cause unfavourable outcomes following lung transplantation. Although a rare occurrence, solid organ transplant recipients who develop acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) have very poor survival. This case report describes the detection of a novel mutation in TERT in a patient who had lung transplantation for familial pulmonary fibrosis and died from complications of acute GVHD.

Falsely Elevated Plasma Creatinine Due to an Immunoglobulin M Paraprotein.

The most common method for measuring plasma creatinine is based on its reaction with picric acid. However, enzymatic methods are becoming more popular due to improved specificity. We present a case of falsely elevated plasma creatinine values obtained by an enzymatic method that turned out to be due to a monoclonal immunoglobulin M (IgM) paraprotein. A 63-year-old woman evaluated for lung transplantation had falsely increased plasma creatinine levels (1.54-1.71mg/dL; corresponding to estimated glomerular filtration rates of 32-36 mL/min/1.73m2) as measured by the Roche Creatinine plus enzymatic assay when compared with the picric acid-based procedure and several other enzymatic methods, which gave plasma creatinine values of 0.7 to 0.8mg/dL. Serum protein electrophoresis revealed an IgM κ light chain paraprotein. Removal of high-molecular-weight (>30kDa) proteins by ultrafiltration reduced the patient's plasma creatinine level by the Roche enzymatic method to 0.7mg/dL. Addition of the patient's immunoglobulin fraction to plasma from other patients with normal plasma creatinine levels resulted in values that were increased by 0.58 to 0.62mg/dL. Furthermore, removal of non-IgM immunoglobulins with protein G-coupled beads did not eliminate the interference from the patient's plasma. Taken together, these studies demonstrate that falsely elevated plasma creatinine values by the Roche enzymatic method can be due to an IgM paraprotein.

Evaluation of Enoxaparin Dosing as a Risk Factor for Bleeding in Lung Transplant Recipients.

BACKGROUND: Lung transplant recipients commonly develop complications that lead to anticoagulation. Standard FDA-approved enoxaparin dosing in this population results in a high incidence of above-goal anti-Xa levels, but its association with bleeding remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between enoxaparin dosing and bleeding in lung transplant recipients and assess the relationship between dosing and anti-Xa levels. METHODS: We conducted a single-center retrospective cohort study of adult lung transplant recipients who received therapeutic enoxaparin between 2000 and 2012 at a tertiary academic center. We dichotomized enoxaparin dosing regimens into standard dose (FDA-approved doses with a 10% rounding margin) and reduced dose. Clinicians ordered anti-Xa levels as deemed clinically appropriate. The primary outcome was major bleeding or clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding. RESULTS: Of 222 patients treated with enoxaparin, 33 (14.9%) had bleeding events, of which half (17/33) were major. Bleeding occurred in 25/146 (17.1%) patients who received standard-dose enoxaparin versus 8/76 (10.5%) patients who received reduced-dose enoxaparin (P = 0.190). Multiple logistic regression demonstrated an independent association between standard-dose enoxaparin and bleeding, after adjusting for confounders (adjusted odds ratio = 3.04; 95% CI = 1.14-8.10). The median enoxaparin dose in patients with above-goal versus at-goal anti-Xa levels was 0.89 versus 0.76 mg/kg every 12 hours; P = 0.006. However, doses yielding at-goal anti-Xa levels had an interquartile range of 0.67 to 0.90 mg/kg, which overlapped with doses yielding above- and below-goal anti-Xa levels. CONCLUSIONS: Enoxaparin dose reduction and anti-Xa level monitoring can improve drug safety and facilitate individualized dose optimization in lung transplant recipients.

A Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial of De Novo Belatacept-based Immunosuppression After Lung Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD) is the leading cause of death beyond the first year after lung transplantation. The development of donor-specific antibodies (DSA) is a recognized risk factor for CLAD. Based on experience in kidney transplantation, we hypothesized that belatacept, a selective T-cell costimulatory blocker, would reduce the incidence of DSA after lung transplantation, which may ameliorate the risk of CLAD. METHODS: We conducted a pilot randomized controlled trial (RCT) at 2 sites to assess the feasibility and inform the design of a large-scale RCT. All participants were treated with rabbit antithymocyte globulin for induction immunosuppression. Participants in the control arm were treated with tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and prednisone, and participants in the belatacept arm were treated with tacrolimus, belatacept, and prednisone through day 89 after transplant then converted to belatacept, mycophenolate mofetil, and prednisone for the remainder of year 1. RESULTS: After randomizing 27 participants, 3 in the belatacept arm died compared with none in the control arm. As a result, we stopped enrollment and treatment with belatacept, and all participants were treated with standard-of-care immunosuppression. Overall, 6 participants in the belatacept arm died compared with none in the control arm (log rank P = 0.008). We did not observe any differences in the incidence of DSA, acute cellular rejection, antibody-mediated rejection, CLAD, or infections between the 2 groups. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the investigational regimen used in this pilot RCT is associated with increased mortality after lung transplantation.

Use of a novel donor lung scoring system as a tool for increasing lung recovery for transplantation.

BACKGROUND: There is a critical shortage of donor lungs for transplantation. We previously developed a parsimonious, highly discriminatory 9-variable Lung Donor (LUNDON) acceptability score. Here we assessed the utility of this score as a tool for improving lung recovery rates for transplantation. METHODS: We examined all brain-dead donors between 2014 and 2020 from 3 US organ procurement organizations and validated the score's predictive performance. We examined the trajectory of donors with low (<40) and high (>60) initial LUNDON scores, their corresponding lung recovery rates, factors contributing to score improvement using multivariable regression models, and 1-year post-transplant recipient survival. RESULTS: Overall lung recovery was 32.4% (1410 of 4351). Validation of the LUNDON score in our cohort revealed a C statistic of 0.904 and required intercept calibration. Low initial LUNDON donors that improved to a high final score had an increase in lung recovery rate from 29.3% (1100 of 3765) to 86.8% (441 of 508), associated with lower body mass index, management in a specialized donor care facility (SDCF), and more bronchoscopies. Donors with high initial and final LUNDON scores had a lung recovery rate of 85.2% (98 of 115), associated with shorter length of hospital stay. One-year survival was similar in recipients of low-to-high versus high-to-high LUNDON score donors (0.89 vs 0.84; P = .2). CONCLUSIONS: The LUNDON score performs well as a predictor of lung recovery in a contemporary cohort but may require organ procurement organization-specific calibration. SDCF care, increasing use of bronchoscopy, and decreasing the time from brain death to organ procurement may improve lung utilization. The LUNDON score can be used to guide donor management to expand the donor pool.

Immunosuppression: what's standard and what's new?

Lung transplantation is the ultimate treatment option for patients with end-stage lung disease. Chronic rejection, in the form of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome, and noncytomegalovirus infections are the major causes of morbidity and mortality beyond the first year after transplantation. Most lung transplant recipients are treated lifelong with a three-drug immunosuppression regimen consisting of a calcineurin inhibitor, an antimetabolite, and low-dose corticosteroids. However, induction and maintenance immunosuppression strategies vary widely between centers, and a consensus on the ideal management of this patient population remains elusive. Over the past 20 years, several studies comparing the calcineurin inhibitors cyclosporine and tacrolimus and other studies comparing the antimetabolites azathioprine and mycophenolate mofetil have been performed. Additionally, the role of mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) inhibitors in the treatment of lung transplant recipients and the utility of azithromycin to treat and prevent bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome are areas of active investigation. This review discusses induction and traditional maintenance immunosuppressive agents and regimens and the evidence that exists to help guide therapy. Newer research involving the use of mTOR inhibitors in place of calcineurin inhibitors or antimetabolites and azithromycin for the treatment and prevention of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome is also explored.

Potential Role of Computed Tomography Volumetry in Size Matching in Lung Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Accumulated knowledge on the outcomes related to size mismatch in lung transplantation derives from predicted total lung capacity equations rather than individualized measurements of donors and recipients. The increasing availability of computed tomography (CT) makes it possible to measure the lung volumes of donors and recipients before transplantation. We hypothesize that CT-derived lung volumes predict a need for surgical graft reduction and primary graft dysfunction. METHODS: Donors from the local organ procurement organization and recipients from our hospital from 2012 to 2018 were included if their CT exams were available. The CT lung volumes and plethysmography total lung capacity were measured and compared with predicted total lung capacity using Bland Altman methods. We used logistic regression to predict the need for surgical graft reduction and ordinal logistic regression to stratify the risk for primary graft dysfunction. RESULTS: A total of 315 transplant candidates with 575 CT scans and 379 donors with 379 CT scans were included. The CT lung volumes closely approximated plethysmography lung volumes and differed from the predicted total lung capacity in transplant candidates. In donors, CT lung volumes systematically underestimated predicted total lung capacity. Ninety-four donors and recipients were matched and transplanted locally. Larger donor and smaller recipient lung volumes estimated by CT predicted a need for surgical graft reduction and were associated with higher primary graft dysfunction grade. CONCLUSION: The CT lung volumes predicted the need for surgical graft reduction and primary graft dysfunction grade. Adding CT-derived lung volumes to the donor-recipient matching process may improve recipients' outcomes.

Utilizing computed tomography volumetry for size matching prior to lung transplantation: a case series.

Background: Appropriate size matching between donor and recipient is critical for successful pulmonary transplantation. Although surrogate measurements such as height and gender are often utilized to approximate predicted lung volume, these methods provide only a gross estimation with wide variability and poor predictive value. Case Description: A single center exploratory study was conducted in which four patients underwent lung transplantation (LT) with pre-operative computed tomography (CT) volumetry obtained in both the donor and recipient to facilitate decision making regarding organ size and suitability. In four cases in which CT volumetry was used, the lung volumes calculated using surrogate measurements significantly overestimated both donor and recipient lung volumes quantified by CT volumetric analysis. All recipients underwent successful LT without necessary graft downsizing. Conclusions: This is an initial report of prospectively utilizing CT volumetry as an adjunct to decision-making regarding suitability of donor lungs. In these cases, CT volumetry facilitated the confident acceptance of donor lungs that were initially predicted to be oversized based on other clinical measures.

Characteristics of donor lungs declined on site and impact of lung allocation policy change.

OBJECTIVE: National and institutional data suggest an increase in organ discard rate (donor lungs procured but not implanted) after a new lung allocation policy was introduced in 2017. However, this measure does not include on-site decline rate (donor lungs declined intraoperatively). The objective of this study is to examine the impact of the allocation policy change on on-site decline. METHODS: We used a Washington University (WU) and our local organ procurement organization (Mid-America Transplant [MTS]) database to abstract data on all accepted lung offers from 2014 to 2021. An on-site decline was defined as an event in which the procuring team declined the organs intraoperatively, and the lungs were not procured. Logistic regression models were used to investigate potentially modifiable reasons for decline. RESULTS: The overall study cohort comprised 876 accepted lung offers, of which 471 donors were at MTS with WU or others as the accepting center and 405 at other organ procurement organizations with WU as the accepting center. At MTS, the on-site decline rate increased from 4.6% to 10.8% (P = .01) after the policy change. Given the greater likelihood of non-local organ placement and longer travel distance after policy change, the estimated cost of each on-site decline increased from $5727 to $9700. In the overall group, latest partial pressure of oxygen (odds ratio [OR], 0.993; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.989-0.997), chest trauma (OR, 2.474; CI, 1.018-6.010), chest radiograph abnormality (OR, 2.902; CI, 1.289-6.532), and bronchoscopy abnormality (OR, 3.654; CI, 1.813-7.365) were associated with on-site decline, although lung allocation policy era was unassociated (P = .22). CONCLUSIONS: We found that nearly 8% of accepted lungs are declined on site. Several donor factors were associated with on-site decline, although lung allocation policy change did not have a consistent impact on on-site decline.