Association of Elective Surgical Volume With State Executive Order Curtailing Elective Surgery in Michigan During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to evaluate changes in elective surgical volume in Michigan while an executive order (EO) was in place curtailing elective surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Many state governors enacted EOs curtailing elective surgery to protect scare resources and generate hospital capacity for patients with COVID-19. Little is known of the effectiveness of an EO on achieving a sustained reduction in elective surgery. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study of data from a statewide claims-based registry in Michigan includes claims from the largest private payer in the state for a representative set of elective operations on adult patients from February 2 through August 1, 2020. We reported trends in surgical volume over the period the EO was in place. Estimated backlogs in elective surgery were calculated using case counts from the same period in 2019. RESULTS: Hospitals achieved a 91.7% reduction in case volume before the EO was introduced. By the time the order was rescinded, hospitals were already performing elective surgery at 60.1% of pre-pandemic case rates. We estimate that a backlog of 6419 operations was created while the EO was in effect. Had hospitals ceased elective surgery during this period, an additional 18% of patients would have experienced a delay in surgical care. CONCLUSIONS: Both the introduction and removal of Michigan's EO lagged behind the observed ramp-down and ramp-up in elective surgical volume. These data suggest that EOs may not effectively modulate surgical care and could also contribute to unnecessary delays in surgical care.

Comprehensive History and Physicals are Common Before Low-Risk Surgery and Associated With Preoperative Test Overuse.

INTRODUCTION: The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) recently eliminated the requirement for preoperative history and physicals (H&Ps) prior to ambulatory surgery. We sought to assess variations in separately billed preoperative H&P utilization prior to low-risk ambulatory surgery, describe any relationship with preoperative testing, and identify independent predictors of these consultations prior to this policy change to help characterize the potential unnecessary utilization of these consultations and potential unnecessary preoperative testing prior to low-risk surgery. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed using claims data from a hospital value collaborative in Michigan from January 2015 to June 2019 and included patients undergoing one of three ambulatory procedures: breast lumpectomy, laparoscopic cholecystectomy, and laparoscopic inguinal hernia repair. Rates of preoperative H&P visits within 30 d of surgical procedure were determined. H&P and preoperative testing associations were explored, and patient-level, practice-level, and hospital-level determinants of utilization were assessed with regression models. Risk and reliability-adjusted caterpillar plots were generated to demonstrate hospital-level variations in utilization. RESULTS: 50,775 patients were included with 50.5% having a preoperative H&P visit, with these visits being more common for patients with increased comorbidities (1.9 ± 2.2 vs 1.4 ± 1.9; P < 0.0001). Preoperative testing was associated with H&P visits (57.2% vs 41.4%; P < 0.0001). After adjusting for patient case-mix and interhospital and intrahospital variations in H&P visits, utilization remained with significant associations in patients with increased comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative H&P visits were common before three low-risk ambulatory surgical procedures across Michigan and were associated with higher rates of low-value preoperative testing, suggesting that preoperative H&P visits may create clinical momentum leading to unnecessary testing. These findings will inform strategies to tailor preoperative care before low-risk surgical procedures and may lead to reduced utilization of low-value preoperative testing.

Oral human papillomavirus prevalence, persistence, and risk-factors in HIV-positive and HIV-negative adults.

BACKGROUND: HIV has been shown to increase the likelihood of oral HPV infection. In this study, we evaluated the risk of oral HPV in HIV infected patients compared with HIV-negative controls. METHODS: 101 healthy adult volunteers (HIV-) and 245 adults living with HIV infection (HIV+) were recruited from 5 academic medical centers. Questionnaires and saliva samples were obtained every 3-8 months over a period of 2 years (2015-2017). DNA was isolated from the saliva samples and tested for 18 high- and low-risk genotypes. RESULTS: Oral HPV was detected in 23% of HIV + vs. 10% of HIV- participants (p < 0.0001). Men had a higher oral HPV prevalence than women (27% vs. 15% HIV+, p = 0.03, 16% vs. 5% HIV-, p = 0.01). Risk factors among HIV + participants included more lifetime deep kissing and oral sex partners, and history of AIDS. Persistent oral HPV was detected in 23% of HIV + vs. 5% of HIV- participants (p < 0.001). Among 8 HIV + participants with CD4 counts <200 cell/µL none had cleared their HPV infection during the study. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of oral HPV infection and persistence was significantly higher in HIV + adults with a history of poorly controlled HIV, which may put them at increased risk of HPV-associated cancer.

Prevalence and determinants of oral and cervicogenital HPV infection: Baseline analysis of the Michigan HPV and Oropharyngeal Cancer (MHOC) cohort study.

We determined baseline oral and cervicogenital human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence and determinants of infection in the Michigan HPV and Oropharyngeal Cancer (MHOC) study. We enrolled 394 college-age and older participants of both sexes in Ann Arbor, Michigan and the surrounding area. All participants provided an oral sample at baseline, and 130 females provided a cervicogenital sample. Samples were tested for 18 HPV genotypes using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) MassArray. Participants filled out sociodemographic and behavioral questionnaires. Prevalence ratios for HPV oral or cervicogenital prevalence by predictor variables were estimated in univariable log-binomial models. Analysis was conducted 2018-20. In the full cohort, baseline oral HPV prevalence was 10.0% for any detected genotype (among the 338 valid oral tests at baseline) and 6.5% for high-risk types, and cervicogenital prevalence was 20.0% and 10.8%, respectively (among the 130 first valid cervicogenital tests). Oral HPV prevalence did not vary by sex, with 10.5% of women and 9.0% of men having an infection. We found a high prevalence of oral and cervicogenital HPV infection in college-age participants reporting no lifetime sexual partners. Reporting a single recent partner was associated with a lower oral HPV prevalence (PR 0.39, 95% CI: 0.16, 0.96) than reporting no recent (but at least one ever) partner. No similar protective effect was seen for cervicogenital HPV. Both oral and cervicogenital prevalence increased with the number of recent partners for most sexual behaviors. We observed an ecological fallacy masking the direction of impact of vaccination on HPV prevalence in the full cohort compared to the college-aged and the age 23+ populations considered separately. Substance use was not significantly associated with oral or cervicogenital HPV infection. Many studies report substantially higher oral HPV infection prevalence in men than in women. That difference may not be uniform across populations in the US.

Drivers of variation in 90-day episode payments after mechanical thrombectomy for acute ischemic stroke.

BACKGROUND: Although mechanical thrombectomy for acute ischemic stroke from a large vessel occlusion is now the standard of care, little is known about cost variations in stroke patients following thrombectomy and factors that influence these variations. METHODS: We evaluated claims data for 2016 to 2018 for thrombectomy-performing hospitals within Michigan through a registry that includes detailed episode payment information for both Medicare and privately insured patients. We aimed to analyze price-standardized and risk-adjusted 90-day episode payments in patients who underwent thrombectomy. Hospitals were grouped into three payment terciles for comparison. Statistical analysis was carried out using unpaired t-test, Chi-square, and ANOVA tests. RESULTS: 1076 thrombectomy cases treated at 16 centers were analyzed. The average 90-day episode payment by hospital ranged from $53 046 to $81,767, with a mean of $65 357. A $20 467 difference (35.1%) existed between the high and low payment hospital terciles (P<0.0001), highlighting a significant payment variation across hospital terciles. The primary drivers of payment variation were related to post-discharge care which accounted for 38% of the payment variation (P=0.0058, inter-tercile range $11,977-$19,703) and readmissions accounting for 26% (P=0.016, inter-tercile range $3,315-$7,992). This was followed by professional payments representing 20% of the variation (P<0.0001, inter-tercile range $7525-$9,922), while index hospitalization payment was responsible for only 16% of the 90-day episode payment variation (P=0.10, inter-tercile range $35,432-$41,099). CONCLUSIONS: There is a wide variation in 90-day episode payments for patients undergoing mechanical thrombectomy across centers. The main drivers of payment variation are related to differences in post-discharge care and readmissions.

Sources of Hospital Variation in Postacute Care Spending After Cardiac Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Postacute care is a major driver of cardiac surgical episode spending, but the sources of variation in spending have not been explored. The objective of this study was to identify sources of variation in postacute care spending within 90-days of discharge following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and aortic valve replacement (AVR) and the relationship between postacute care spending and other postdischarge utilization. METHODS AND RESULTS: A retrospective analysis was conducted of public and private administrative claims for Michigan residents insured by Medicare fee-for-service and Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan/Blue Care Network commercial and Medicare Advantage plans undergoing CABG (n=11 208) or AVR (n=6122) in 33 nonfederal acute care Michigan hospitals between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2018. Postacute care use was present in 9662 (86.2%) CABG episodes and 4242 (69.3%) AVR episodes, with respective mean (SD) 90-day spending of $4398±$6124 and $3465±$5759. Across hospitals, mean postacute care spending ranged from $3280 to $8186 for CABG and $2246 to $7710 for AVR. Inpatient rehabilitation and skilled nursing facility care accounted for over 80% of the variation spending between low and high postacute care spending hospitals. At the hospital-level, postacute care spending was modestly correlated across procedures and payers. Spending associated with readmissions, emergency department visits, and outpatient facility care was significantly different between low and high postacute care spending hospitals in CABG and AVR episodes. CONCLUSIONS: There was wide hospital variation in postacute care spending after cardiac surgery, which was primarily driven by differential use and intensity in facility-based postacute care. Optimizing facility-based postacute care after cardiac surgery offers unique opportunities to reduce potentially unwarranted care variation.

Dynamics and Determinants of HPV Infection: The Michigan HPV and Oropharyngeal Cancer (M-HOC) Study.

INTRODUCTION: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the primary cause of cervical and other anogenital cancers and is also associated with head and neck cancers. Incidence of HPV-related oropharyngeal squamous cell cancers (OPSCCs) is increasing, and HPV-related OPSCCs have surpassed cervical cancer as the most common HPV-related cancer in the USA. Given the multisite nature of HPV, there is strong interest in collecting data from both genital and oral sites, as well as associated data on social and sexual behaviours. The overarching goal of this study is to evaluate patterns of oral HPV infection incidence, clearance and persistence and their relationship to sexual behaviour history. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Participants are recruited from two populations: college students at a large public university and general population from the surrounding area. At the first study visit, participants complete a detailed sexual history, health and behaviour questionnaire. Follow-up visits occur every 3-4 months over 3 years, when participants complete an abbreviated questionnaire. All participants provide a saliva sample at each visit, and eligible participants may provide a cervicovaginal self-swab. Genetic material isolated from specimens is tested for 15 high-risk and 3 low-risk HPV types. Statistical analyses will examine outcome variables including HPV prevalence, incidence, persistence and clearance. Logistic regression models will be used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations between the outcomes of interest and demographic/behavioural variables collected in the questionnaires. The longitudinal HPV infection data and detailed sexual history data collected in the questionnaires will allow us to develop individual-based network models of HPV transmission and will be used to parameterise multiscale models of HPV-related OPSC carcinogenesis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been approved by the University of Michigan Institutional Review Board. All participants are consented in person by trained study staff. Study results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications.