Estimation of metabolic syndrome heritability in three large populations including full pedigree and genomic information.

Metabolic syndrome is a complex human disorder characterized by a cluster of conditions (increased blood pressure, hyperglycemia, excessive body fat around the waist, and abnormal cholesterol or triglyceride levels). Any of these conditions increases the risk of serious disorders such as diabetes or cardiovascular disease. Currently, the degree of genetic regulation of this syndrome is under debate and partially unknown. The principal aim of this study was to estimate the genetic component and the common environmental effects in different populations using full pedigree and genomic information. We used three large populations (Gubbio, ARIC, and Ogliastra cohorts) to estimate the heritability of metabolic syndrome. Due to both pedigree and genotyped data, different approaches were applied to summarize relatedness conditions. Linear mixed models (LLM) using average information restricted maximum likelihood (AIREML) algorithm were applied to partition the variances and estimate heritability (h2) and common sib-household effect (c2). Globally, results obtained from pedigree information showed a significant heritability (h2: 0.286 and 0.271 in Gubbio and Ogliastra, respectively), whereas a lower, but still significant heritability was found using SNPs data ([Formula: see text]: 0.167 and 0.254 in ARIC and Ogliastra). The remaining heritability between h2 and [Formula: see text] ranged between 0.031 and 0.237. Finally, the common environmental c2 in Gubbio and Ogliastra were also significant accounting for about 11% of the phenotypic variance. Availability of different kinds of populations and data helped us to better understand what happened when heritability of metabolic syndrome is estimated and account for different possible confounding. Furthermore, the opportunity of comparing different results provided more precise and less biased estimation of heritability.

Blood pressure-lowering treatment strategies based on cardiovascular risk versus blood pressure: A meta-analysis of individual participant data.

BACKGROUND: Clinical practice guidelines have traditionally recommended blood pressure treatment based primarily on blood pressure thresholds. In contrast, using predicted cardiovascular risk has been advocated as a more effective strategy to guide treatment decisions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. We aimed to compare outcomes from a blood pressure-lowering treatment strategy based on predicted cardiovascular risk with one based on systolic blood pressure (SBP) level. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used individual participant data from the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (BPLTTC) from 1995 to 2013. Trials randomly assigned participants to either blood pressure-lowering drugs versus placebo or more intensive versus less intensive blood pressure-lowering regimens. We estimated 5-y risk of CVD events using a multivariable Weibull model previously developed in this dataset. We compared the two strategies at specific SBP thresholds and across the spectrum of risk and blood pressure levels studied in BPLTTC trials. The primary outcome was number of CVD events avoided per persons treated. We included data from 11 trials (47,872 participants). During a median of 4.0 y of follow-up, 3,566 participants (7.5%) experienced a major cardiovascular event. Areas under the curve comparing the two treatment strategies throughout the range of possible thresholds for CVD risk and SBP demonstrated that, on average, a greater number of CVD events would be avoided for a given number of persons treated with the CVD risk strategy compared with the SBP strategy (area under the curve 0.71 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.72] for the CVD risk strategy versus 0.54 [95% CI 0.53-0.55] for the SBP strategy). Compared with treating everyone with SBP ≥ 150 mmHg, a CVD risk strategy would require treatment of 29% (95% CI 26%-31%) fewer persons to prevent the same number of events or would prevent 16% (95% CI 14%-18%) more events for the same number of persons treated. Compared with treating everyone with SBP ≥ 140 mmHg, a CVD risk strategy would require treatment of 3.8% (95% CI 12.5% fewer to 7.2% more) fewer persons to prevent the same number of events or would prevent 3.1% (95% CI 1.5%-5.0%) more events for the same number of persons treated, although the former estimate was not statistically significant. In subgroup analyses, the CVD risk strategy did not appear to be more beneficial than the SBP strategy in patients with diabetes mellitus or established CVD. CONCLUSIONS: A blood pressure-lowering treatment strategy based on predicted cardiovascular risk is more effective than one based on blood pressure levels alone across a range of thresholds. These results support using cardiovascular risk assessment to guide blood pressure treatment decision-making in moderate- to high-risk individuals, particularly for primary prevention.

Osmotic indices and kidney concentrating activity: population-based data on correlates and prognostic power.

Background: Research data are limited on indices of osmotic equilibrium and of kidney concentrating activity (KCA). This study investigated correlates and prognostic power of these indices in a sample of the general population. Methods: Urine osmolality (U-osm), plasma osmolality (P-osm), plasma creatinine and other variables were measured by the Gubbio Study for the 1988-92 exam (baseline). Plasma creatinine and other variables were re-measured in the 2001-07 exam (follow-up). KCA was assessed as the U-osm/P-osm ratio and kidney function as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Results: Baseline data were complete in 4220 adults, of whom 852 died before follow-up and 2795 participated in the follow-up. At baseline, the following independent cross-sectional associations were identified: female sex and higher urine flow with lower values of U-osm, P-osm and U-osm/P-osm ratio (P < 0.01); obesity with higher values of U-osm, P-osm and U-osm/P-osm ratio (P < 0.01); older age and lower eGFR with lower U-osm, lower U-osm/P-osm ratio and higher P-osm (P < 0.05); hypertension and smoking with lower U-osm and lower U-osm/P-osm ratio (P < 0.05) but not with P-osm. From baseline to follow-up, the annualized rate was 1.26% for mortality and -0.74 ± 0.76 mL/min × 1.73 m2 for eGFR change. Mortality was independently predicted by baseline U-osm and baseline U-osm/P-osm ratio (hazard ratio for one higher standard deviation was ≤0.91, 95% confidence interval was ≤0.97, P < 0.01), but not by baseline P-osm. The eGFR change was not independently predicted by baseline values of U-osm, P-osm and U-osm/P-osm ratio (P ≥ 0.4). Conclusions: Sex, age, obesity, eGFR, urine flow, hypertension and smoking independently associated with U-osm and KCA. U-osm and KCA independently predicted mortality, but not kidney function change over time.

2018 Practice Guidelines for the management of arterial hypertension of the European Society of Cardiology and the European Society of Hypertension.

These practice guidelines on the management of arterial hypertension are a concise summary of the more extensive ones prepared by the Task Force jointly appointed by the European Society of Hypertension and the European Society of Cardiology. These guidelines have been prepared on the basis of the best available evidence on all issues deserving recommendations; their role must be educational and not prescriptive or coercive for the management of individual subjects who may differ widely in their personal, medical and cultural characteristics. The members of the Task Force have participated independently in the preparation of these guidelines, drawing on their academic and clinical experience and by objective examination and interpretation of all available literature. A disclosure of their potential conflict of interest is reported on the websites of the ESH and the ESC.

Randomized controlled trials of blood pressure lowering in hypertension: a critical reappraisal.

Sixty-eight blood pressure (BP)-lowering randomized controlled trials (defined as randomized controlled trials comparing active treatment with placebo, or less active treatment, achieving a BP difference, performed between 1966 and end 2013 in cohorts with ≥ 40% hypertensive patients, and exclusive of trials in acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, acute stroke, and dialysis) were identified and meta-analyzed grouping the randomized controlled trials on the basis of clinically relevant questions: (1) does BP lowering reduce all types of cardiovascular outcome? (2) Is prevention of all outcomes proportional to the extent of systolic, diastolic, and pulse BP? (3) Have all classes of BP-lowering drugs been shown capable of reducing all types of cardiovascular outcome? (4) Is BP lowering beneficial when intervention is initiated at any grade (or stage) of hypertension? (5) Do BP-lowering randomized controlled trials provide evidence about systolic BP and diastolic BP targets of treatment? (6) Should BP-lowering treatment be preferentially addressed to patients in higher risk categories promising larger absolute treatment benefits? The results of these meta-analyses provide further support to current hypertension treatment guidelines by showing that BP lowering can significantly reduce major cardiovascular outcomes largely independent of the agents used, significant risk reduction is found at all hypertension grades (stages), and when systolic BP is lowered below a cut off of 140 mm Hg with some further reduction limited to stroke at systolic BP values just <130 mm Hg. Absolute risk reduction progressively increases higher is total cardiovascular risk, but this greater benefit is associated with a progressively higher residual risk, ie, higher treatment failures.

Cardiovascular outcomes at different on-treatment blood pressures in the hypertensive patients of the VALUE trial.

AIMS: Recent hypertension guidelines recommend that also in high cardiovascular (CV) risk, hypertensive patients blood pressure (BP) is lowered to <140/90 mmHg as no evidence is available supporting the lower target of <130/80 mmHg recommended in previous guidelines. Whether this represents the optimal treatment strategy is debated, however. METHODS AND RESULTS: The high CV risk hypertensive patients of the Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term use Evaluation (VALUE) trial were divided into subgroups according to (i) the percentage of on-treatment visits in which BP was reduced to <140/90 or <130/80 mmHg or (ii) the mean systolic or diastolic BP (SBP/DBP) values achieved during the entire treatment period or up to the occurrence of an event. A progressive increase from <25 to ≥75% of the visits in which BP was <140/90 mmHg was accompanied by a significant, progressive marked decrease in the covariate adjusted risk of CV morbidity and mortality, cause specific CV events (myocardial infarction, heart failure, and stroke), and all-cause mortality. Except for a persistent progressive decrease in stroke, no significant trend to a risk decrease occurred for a similar progressive increment of the proportion of visits with BP <130/80 mmHg. Increasing the proportion of visits with a BP <140/90 mmHg (but not <130/80 mmHg) was accompanied by a decreased risk of events also when differences in baseline risk were adjusted using a propensity score. Finally, compared with patients remaining at a mean on-treatment SBP ≥140 or DBP ≥90 mmHg, the risk of all events was markedly reduced when on-treatment mean SBP was lowered to a mean SBP of 130-139 mmHg or a mean DBP of 80-89 mmHg, whereas at on-treatment mean SBP <130 mmHg or DBP <80 mmHg, an additional risk reduction was found for stroke but for any other type of event, the risk of which remained similar or only slightly greater than that seen at the higher BP target. CONCLUSIONS: In the high CV risk, hypertensives of the VALUE trial reducing BP consistently to <140/90 mmHg had marked beneficial effects both when data were calculated as proportion of visits at BP target or as on-treatment mean BP. Reducing BP to <130/80 mmHg led only to some possible further benefit on stroke, whereas the risk of other outcomes remained substantially similar to or slightly greater than that seen at the higher target. Thus, aggressive BP reductions when CV risk is high may not offer substantial advantages, except perhaps in patients or conditions in which stroke risk is particularly common.

No evidence for a J-shaped curve in treated hypertensive patients with increased cardiovascular risk: The VALUE trial.

Previous studies have debated the notion that low blood pressure (BP) during treatment, particularly diastolic (DBP), is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. We evaluated the impact of low BP on cardiovascular outcomes in a high-risk population of 15,244 hypertensive patients, almost half of whom had a history of coronary artery disease (CAD). In the prospective Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use Evaluation (VALUE) trial, patients were randomized to valsartan or amlodipine regimens and followed for 4.2 years (mean) with no difference in the primary cardiovascular endpoint. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the relationship between average on-treatment BP and clinical outcomes. The relationship between BP and cardiovascular events was adjusted for age, gender and body mass index, and baseline qualifying risk factors and diseases (smoking, high total cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, proteinuria, CAD, previous stroke and left ventricular hypertrophy). DBP ≥ 90 mmHg, compared with < 90 mmHg, was associated with increased incidence of the primary cardiovascular endpoint (all cardiac events); however, DBP < 70 mmHg, compared with ≥ 70 mmHg, was not associated with increased incidence after covariate adjustment (no J-shaped curve). Similar results were observed for death, myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure and stroke, considered separately. Nadir for MI was at DBP of 76 mmHg and for stroke 60 mmHg. The ratio of MI to stroke increased with lower DBP. In CAD patients the MI to stroke ratio was more pronounced than in patients without CAD but there was no significant J-curve in either group. Systolic BP ≥ 150 but not < 130 mmHg, compared with 130-149 mmHg, similarly was associated with increased risk for primary outcome. In conclusion, patients in BP strata ≥ 150/90 mmHg, but not patients in BP strata < 130/70 mmHg, were at increased risk for adverse outcomes in this hypertensive, high-risk population. Although benefit in preventing MI in relation to preventing stroke levels off for the lowest BPs, these data provide no support for a J-curve in the treatment of high-risk hypertensive patients . The increase in the ratio of MI to stroke with lower DBP indicates target organ heterogeneity in that the optimal on-treatment DBP for cerebroprotection is below that for cardioprotection.

Population-based dose-response curve of glomerular filtration rate to dietary protein intake.

BACKGROUND: Kidney function measured as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) is a risk factor for mortality and severe diseases. Protein intake up-regulates kidney function. The dose-response curve of eGFR over protein intake is unknown. Urinary urea nitrogen is an objective index of protein intake. METHODS: The study cross-sectionally analysed the relation between overnight urinary urea nitrogen ((on)U-ureaN) and eGFR with and without control for other variables in 4106 adults of the Gubbio population. Analyses were done for serum creatinine (S-cr) also to investigate the independency of results from eGFR calculation. RESULTS: Higher (on)U-ureaN associated with higher eGFR, and lower S-cr independently of sex and age (simple and partial correlation coefficients >0.100, P < 0.001). Analyses by (on)U-ureaN decile indicated sigmoid curves of eGFR and S-cr over (on)U-ureaN with trend to flatness in the lowest 20% and the highest 20% of (on)U-ureaN (<5.19 and >10.12 mg/h, respectively). Multi-variable spline regression indicated that the relation of eGFR over (on)U-ureaN was non-significant for (on)U-ureaN <5.19 mg/h (coefficient = +0.27, 95% CI = -0.31/+0.84, P = 0.364), positive for (on)U-ureaN in the range 5.19-10.12 mg/h (coefficients = 1.35-1.64, lower 95% CI ≥ +0.48, P ≤ 0.002), and non-significant for (on)U-ureaN >10.12 mg/h (coefficient = +0.05, 95% CI = -0.06/ +0.16, P = 0.394). eGFR differed by ≈8 mL/min × 1.73 m(2) between the lowest and highest 20% of (on)U-ureaN distribution. CONCLUSIONS: Higher protein intake relates to higher eGFR. The relation is sigmoid with eGFR up-regulation for (on)U-ureaN >5.19 mg/h, a threshold approximately corresponding to the recommended daily allowance for protein intake (0.8 g/day per kg of ideal weight).

Influence of high cardiovascular risk in asymptomatic people on the duration and cost of sick leave: results of the ICARIA study.

AIMS: We investigated the potential influence of a moderate-to-high cardiovascular (CV) risk (CVR) (defined as a Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation model, or SCORE ≥ 4%), in the absence of an established CV disease, on the duration and cost of CV and non-CV sick leave (SL) resulting from common and occupational accidents or diseases. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a prospective cohort study on 690 135 workers with a 1-year follow-up and examined CV- and non-CV-related SL episodes. To obtain baseline values, CVR factors were initially assessed at the beginning of the year during routine medical examination. The CVR was calculated with the SCORE charts for all subjects. Moderate-to-high CVR was defined as SCORE ≥ 4%. A baseline SCORE ≥ 4% was associated with a higher risk for long-term CV and non-CV SL, as revealed by follow-up assessment. This translated into an increased cost, estimated at €5 801 464.18 per year. Furthermore, pharmacological treatment for hypertension or hyperlipidaemia was significantly associated with longer SL duration. CONCLUSION: Moderate-to-high CVR in asymptomatic subjects was significantly associated with the duration and cost of CV and non-CV SL. These results constitute the first body of evidence that the SCORE charts can be used to identify people with a non-established CV disease, which might ultimately translate into more lost workdays and therefore increased cost for society.

Protein intake and kidney function in the middle-age population: contrast between cross-sectional and longitudinal data.

BACKGROUND: Protein intake is considered a determinant of glomerular filtration rate (GFR). Urinary urea is an objective marker of protein intake. The population-based study investigated, cross-sectionally and longitudinally, the association of protein intake with GFR, indexed by estimated GFR (eGFR). METHODS: Data were collected on overnight urinary urea, serum creatinine (S-cr), eGFR and other variables in 1522 men and women aged 45-64 years who participated in the Gubbio study (baseline). S-Cr, eGFR and other variables were re-assessed in 1144 of the 1425 survivors after 12-year follow-up. RESULTS: At baseline, mean ± SD was 84.0 ± 11.4 mL/min × 1.73 m(2) for eGFR calculated by CKD-Epi equation and 1.34 ± 0.57 g/day per kg of ideal weight for protein intake assessed by measurements of overnight urine excretion of urea nitrogen. Cross-sectional analyses of baseline data indicated a positive correlation of protein intake with eGFR (R = 0.180, P < 0.001). In multi-variable regression, 1 g/day higher protein intake related to 4.7 mL/min × 1.73 m(2) higher eGFR [95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.7/5.7]. At follow-up, mean ± SD of 12-year eGFR change was -11.6 ± 9.0 mL/min × 1.73 m(2). Baseline protein intake correlated with more negative eGFR change (R = -0.251, P < 0.001). In multi-variable regression, 1 g/day higher protein intake related to -4.1 mL/min × 1.73 m(2) more negative eGFR change (95% CI = -5.1/-3.1) and to 1.78 risk for incidence of eGFR < 60 mL/min × 1.73 m(2) (95% CI = 1.15/2.78). CONCLUSIONS: In middle-aged adults, high protein intake is associated cross-sectionally with higher GFR but longitudinally with greater GFR decline over time.

Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability, carotid atherosclerosis, and cardiovascular events in the European Lacidipine Study on Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: In high-cardiovascular-risk treated hypertensive patients, the incidence of cardiovascular events has been reported to relate to visit-to-visit blood pressure (BP) variability. We investigated whether visit-to-visit BP variability is prognostically important in treated mildly to moderately hypertensive patients in whom treatment aims at avoiding events but also at preventing or delaying progression of organ damage. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed the pooled data from the European Lacidipine Study on Atherosclerosis (ELSA), a randomized, double-blind 4-year trial of the effect of lacidipine or atenolol on echographic carotid intima-media thickness. Visit-to-visit BP variability was assessed by the coefficient of variation or the SD of the mean on-treatment systolic BP (SBP) obtained at 6- (clinic BP) and 12- (24 hours BP) month intervals, respectively (1521 and 1264 patients, respectively). In a multivariable linear regression model, mean on-treatment clinic or 24-hour SBP, but not SBP coefficient of variation or SD, was associated with end-of-treatment carotid intima-media thickness. Intima-media thickness increased progressively from the lowest to highest quartile of mean on-treatment clinic or 24-hour SBP (adjusted P for trend=0.046 and 0.048) but not along similar quartiles of SBP coefficient of variation or SD. In a multivariable logistic regression model, mean BP, but not variability, was associated with cardiovascular outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In mildly to moderately hypertensive patients, carotid intima-media thickness and cardiovascular outcomes were related to the mean clinic or ambulatory SBP achieved by treatment but not to on-treatment visit-to-visit clinic or 24-hour BP variability. Thus, when BP is modestly elevated, inconsistency of BP control between visits plays a less important prognostic role than long-term average BP levels.

Short-term effects of daily aspirin on cancer incidence, mortality, and non-vascular death: analysis of the time course of risks and benefits in 51 randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Daily aspirin reduces the long-term risk of death due to cancer. However, the short-term effect is less certain, especially in women, effects on cancer incidence are largely unknown, and the time course of risk and benefit in primary prevention is unclear. We studied cancer deaths in all trials of daily aspirin versus control and the time course of effects of low-dose aspirin on cancer incidence and other outcomes in trials in primary prevention. METHODS: We studied individual patient data from randomised trials of daily aspirin versus no aspirin in prevention of vascular events. Death due to cancer, all non-vascular death, vascular death, and all deaths were assessed in all eligible trials. In trials of low-dose aspirin in primary prevention, we also established the time course of effects on incident cancer, major vascular events, and major extracranial bleeds, with stratification by age, sex, and smoking status. RESULTS: Allocation to aspirin reduced cancer deaths (562 vs 664 deaths; odds ratio [OR] 0·85, 95% CI 0·76-0·96, p=0·008; 34 trials, 69,224 participants), particularly from 5 years onwards (92 vs 145; OR 0·63, 95% CI 0·49-0·82, p=0·0005), resulting in fewer non-vascular deaths overall (1021 vs 1173; OR 0·88, 95% CI 0·78-0·96, p=0·003; 51 trials, 77,549 participants). In trials in primary prevention, the reduction in non-vascular deaths accounted for 87 (91%) of 96 deaths prevented. In six trials of daily low-dose aspirin in primary prevention (35,535 participants), aspirin reduced cancer incidence from 3 years onwards (324 vs 421 cases; OR 0·76, 95% CI 0·66-0·88, p=0·0003) in women (132 vs 176; OR 0·75, 95% CI 0·59-0·94, p=0·01) and in men (192 vs 245; OR 0·77, 95% CI 0·63-0·93, p=0·008). The reduced risk of major vascular events on aspirin was initially offset by an increased risk of major bleeding, but effects on both outcomes diminished with increasing follow-up, leaving only the reduced risk of cancer (absolute reduction 3·13 [95% CI 1·44-4·82] per 1000 patients per year) from 3 years onwards. Case-fatality from major extracranial bleeds was also lower on aspirin than on control (8/203 vs 15/132; OR 0·32, 95% CI 0·12-0·83, p=0·009). INTERPRETATION: Alongside the previously reported reduction by aspirin of the long-term risk of cancer death, the short-term reductions in cancer incidence and mortality and the decrease in risk of major extracranial bleeds with extended use, and their low case-fatality, add to the case for daily aspirin in prevention of cancer. FUNDING: None.

Is a systolic blood pressure target <140 mmHg indicated in all hypertensives? Subgroup analyses of findings from the randomized FEVER trial.

AIMS: Major guidelines recommend lowering systolic blood pressure (SBP) to <140 mmHg in all hypertensives, but evidence is missing whether this is beneficial in (i) uncomplicated hypertensives, (ii) grade 1 hypertensives, and (iii) elderly hypertensives. Providing this missing evidence is important to justify efforts and costs of aggressive therapy in all hypertensives. METHODS AND RESULTS: Felodipine Event Reduction (FEVER) was a double-blind, randomized trial on 9711 Chinese hypertensives, in whom cardiovascular outcomes were significantly reduced by more intense therapy (low-dose hydrochlorothiazide and low-dose felodipine) achieving a mean of 138 mmHg SBP compared with less-intense therapy (low-dose hydrochlorothiazide and placebo) achieving a mean of 142 mmHg. FEVER included older and younger patients, and patients with and without diabetes or cardiovascular disease. In the analyses here reported, Cox regression models assessed outcome differences between more and less-intense treatments in groups of patients with different baseline characteristics. Significant reductions in stroke were found in uncomplicated hypertensives (-39%, P = 0.002), in hypertensives with randomization SBP <153 mmHg (-29%, P = 0.03), and in elderly hypertensives (-44%, P < 0.001), when their SBP was lowered by more intense treatment. Significant reductions (between -29 and -47%, P = 0.02 to <0.001) were also found in all cardiovascular events and all deaths. Achieving mean SBP values <140 mmHg by adding a small dose of a generic drug prevented 2.1 (uncomplicated hypertensives) and 5.2 (elderly) cardiovascular events every 100 patients treated for 3.3 years. CONCLUSIONS: These analyses provide strong support, missing so far, to guidelines recommending goal SBP <140 mmHg in uncomplicated hypertensives, individuals with moderately elevated BP and elderly hypertensives.

Baseline values but not treatment-induced changes in carotid intima-media thickness predict incident cardiovascular events in treated hypertensive patients: findings in the European Lacidipine Study on Atherosclerosis (ELSA).

BACKGROUND: Baseline carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and plaques are considered predictors of cardiovascular events, but whether they maintain predictive value in treated hypertensive patients and whether time-related (or treatment-induced) IMT changes are additional predictors are unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: Analyses were performed of the data from the European Lacidipine Study on Atherosclerosis (ELSA), a large, randomized, intervention trial in which 2334 hypertensive patients from 7 European countries were followed up under effective antihypertensive treatment for 3.75 years. Kaplan-Meier curves indicated progressively lower survival free of any type of outcome except stroke, with increasing baseline IMT quartiles or increasing IMT values, even after adjustment for major baseline risk factors. Incidence of any outcome except stroke also was related to baseline number of carotid plaques. However, when both baseline and on-treatment IMT values were entered in Cox proportional-hazards models, differences in IMT compared with baseline did not predict cardiovascular outcomes. Although on-treatment rather than baseline IMT values significantly entered some of the proportional-hazards models, baseline and on-treatment IMTs were highly correlated, and therefore these results are inconclusive. CONCLUSIONS: ELSA shows that carotid intima-media thickening and plaques are important added risks of cardiovascular outcomes in a treated hypertensive population independently of blood pressure and traditional risk factors. However, the analysis failed to show a predictive role of treatment-dependent IMT changes. These negative conclusions should be tempered by the limitations inherent in the smallness of these changes compared with the large individual differences in baseline IMTs.

Aspirin in the primary and secondary prevention of vascular disease: collaborative meta-analysis of individual participant data from randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: Low-dose aspirin is of definite and substantial net benefit for many people who already have occlusive vascular disease. We have assessed the benefits and risks in primary prevention. METHODS: We undertook meta-analyses of serious vascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, or vascular death) and major bleeds in six primary prevention trials (95,000 individuals at low average risk, 660,000 person-years, 3554 serious vascular events) and 16 secondary prevention trials (17,000 individuals at high average risk, 43,000 person-years, 3306 serious vascular events) that compared long-term aspirin versus control. We report intention-to-treat analyses of first events during the scheduled treatment period. FINDINGS: In the primary prevention trials, aspirin allocation yielded a 12% proportional reduction in serious vascular events (0.51% aspirin vs 0.57% control per year, p=0.0001), due mainly to a reduction of about a fifth in non-fatal myocardial infarction (0.18%vs 0.23% per year, p<0.0001). The net effect on stroke was not significant (0.20%vs 0.21% per year, p=0.4: haemorrhagic stroke 0.04%vs 0.03%, p=0.05; other stroke 0.16%vs 0.18% per year, p=0.08). Vascular mortality did not differ significantly (0.19%vs 0.19% per year, p=0.7). Aspirin allocation increased major gastrointestinal and extracranial bleeds (0.10%vs 0.07% per year, p<0.0001), and the main risk factors for coronary disease were also risk factors for bleeding. In the secondary prevention trials, aspirin allocation yielded a greater absolute reduction in serious vascular events (6.7%vs 8.2% per year, p<0.0001), with a non-significant increase in haemorrhagic stroke but reductions of about a fifth in total stroke (2.08%vs 2.54% per year, p=0.002) and in coronary events (4.3%vs 5.3% per year, p<0.0001). In both primary and secondary prevention trials, the proportional reductions in the aggregate of all serious vascular events seemed similar for men and women. INTERPRETATION: In primary prevention without previous disease, aspirin is of uncertain net value as the reduction in occlusive events needs to be weighed against any increase in major bleeds. Further trials are in progress. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, and the European Community Biomed Programme.

Twenty-year cardiovascular and all-cause mortality trends and changes in cardiovascular risk factors in Gubbio, Italy: the role of blood pressure changes.

AIMS: In an observational population study that lasted 20 years, the relationships between mortality trends and changes in cardiovascular risk factor levels were examined. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the town of Gubbio, in central Italy, population surveys for measurement of cardiovascular risk factors were performed 20 years apart. In a subset of the initial cohort (1927 men and 2333 women), mortality data were collected for 20 years. Cardiovascular risk factor levels were compared in individuals in the same age range (20-79 years) examined at the initial survey (1927 men and 2333 women) and at the final survey (1761 men and 2055 women). Age-adjusted rates significantly declined, by 28% among men and 51% among women, for all causes of death, and by 50% among men and 71% among women for cardiovascular disease deaths. Declines were observed in the levels of systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol, resting heart rate, smoking habits, BMI, plasma glucose (the latter two only in women) and the estimated cardiovascular risk, together with increases in serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and in the proportion of treated and controlled hypertensive patients. CONCLUSION: Although similar but less impressive changes were recorded in Italy at large, the existence of the observational study in Gubbio might have motivated the general population and the medical profession towards actions promoting general health.

Left and right ventricular structural changes in obese hypertensives.

AIM: Obesity is known to be independently related to left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy (LVH); however, in human hypertension the association of obesity with right ventricular hypertrophy (RVH) is still unsettled. We investigated the relationship of obesity with RVH and biventricular hypertrophy in essential hypertension. METHODS: A cohort of untreated and treated uncomplicated essential hypertensives consecutively attending a hospital outpatient hypertension clinic, categorized in three groups according to body mass index (BMI) thresholds (<25, 25-29.9 and > or =30 kg/m2) was considered for the present analysis. RVH was defined by an anterior RV wall thickness equal or higher than 3.1/3.0 mm/m2 in men and women, respectively, and LVH by LV mass index (LVMI) equal or higher than 51 and 47 g/m(2.7) in men and women, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 124 patients (37.6%) had normal BMI, 151 patients (45.7%) were overweight and 55 (16.7%) obese. Prevalence rates of biventricular hypertrophy (i.e. LVMI>51 and 47 g/m(2.7) and RVWT>3.1 and 3.0 mm) in the three groups were 7.3%, 21.2% and 32.7%, respectively. In a multivariate analysis, BMI (OR=3.58, 95% CI 1.82-7.03, p=0.0002), was the most important correlate of biventricular hypertrophy. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings extend previous data on the impact of obesity on cardiac structure by showing that this phenotype is strongly associated with biventricular hypertrophy.