The coSIR model predicts effective strategies to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants with low severity and high transmissibility.

Multiple new variants of SARS-CoV-2 have been identified as the COVID-19 pandemic spreads across the globe. However, most epidemic models view the virus as static and unchanging and thus fail to address the consequences of the potential evolution of the virus. Here, we built a competitive susceptible-infected-removed (coSIR) model to simulate the competition between virus strains of differing severities or transmissibility under various virus control policies. The coSIR model predicts that although the virus is extremely unlikely to evolve into a "super virus" that causes an increased fatality rate, virus variants with less severe symptoms can lead to potential new outbreaks and can cost more lives over time. The present model also demonstrates that the protocols restricting the transmission of the virus, such as wearing masks and social distancing, are the most effective strategy in reducing total mortality. A combination of adequate testing and strict quarantine is a powerful alternative to policies such as mandatory stay-at-home orders, which may have an enormous negative impact on the economy. In addition, building Mobile Cabin Hospitals can be effective and efficient in reducing the mortality rate of highly infectious virus strains. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11071-021-06705-8.

Changes in serum adipocyte fatty acid-binding protein in women with gestational diabetes mellitus and normal pregnant women during mid- and late pregnancy.

AIMS/INTRODUCTION: To observe the longitudinal changes in serum adipocyte fatty acid-binding protein (AFABP), carbohydrate, and lipid metabolism parameters in women with and without gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) during mid- and late pregnancy periods, as well as to identify whether there is any association between AFABP and development of GDM. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 40 GDM and 240 normal glucose tolerance participants were enrolled at 24-28 weeks and completed the study. The clinical features, serum AFABP, other adipocytokines (leptin, adiponectin, retinol-binding protein 4), homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, and lipid profiles were measured in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy. RESULTS: Compared with the normal glucose tolerance group, the GDM group showed greater levels of AFABP, leptin and retinol-binding protein 4; and a decreased level of adiponectin (P < 0.05 or P < 0.01) during mid- and late pregnancy periods. Prepregnancy body mass index was the independent factor impacting serum AFABP levels in the second (ß = 0.567, P = 0.004) and third trimesters (ß = 0.619, P = 0.001). Furthermore, GDM was independently associated with AFABP concentrations in multiple regression analysis in the second and third trimester (all P < 0.01). Serum AFABP, leptin and retinol-binding protein 4 are risk factors for GDM; adiponectin is a protective factor for GDM (P < 0.05 or P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The GDM group had a higher level of AFABP during mid- and late stages of pregnancy; prepregnancy body mass index and GDM were the independent factors with respect to serum AFABP. AFABP might be closely related to obesity, insulin resistance and leptin resistance in pregnancy, and is a major risk factor for GDM.

Clinical study of treatment switching from premixed insulin to basal insulin combined with oral hypoglycemic drugs in patients with type 2 diabetes.

AIM: Premixed insulin regimens are commonly used for the treatment of patients with type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, limited data are available regarding next-step therapy options in cases where premixed insulin fails to provide adequate glycemic control. This 20-week observational study of everyday clinical practice evaluated the efficacy, safety and treatment satisfaction of insulin glargine plus oral anti-diabetic drugs (OADs) in T2DM patients previously treated with premixed insulin. METHODS: In this open-label, single-arm, 20-week study, 70 subjects with T2DM inadequately controlled with premixed insulin were switched to insulin glargine plus OADs. Changes in glycaemic control, incidence of hypoglycaemia, treatment satisfaction using the Diabetes Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire (DTSQ), serum superoxide dismutase (SOD), and serum 8-iso-prostaglandin (8-iso-PG) were evaluated at the start and the end of the study. RESULTS: Over the 20 week treatment period, mean (±SD) HbA1c levels decreased from 8.28 ± 1.24% to 6.83 ± 1.09%, mean (±SD) FBG levels decreased from 7.64 ± 1.36 mmol/L to 5.57 ± 1.21 mmol/L, and 2 h PBG levels decreased from 12.07 ± 1.17 mmol/L to 8.94 ± 1.56 mmol/L, all P < 0.001. A total of 3 symptomatic hypoglycemic episodes were reported. No significant reductions in body weight were observed. The mean daily dose of insulin decreased by 14 U between week 0 (30.20 ± 9.93 U) and week 20 (16.38 ± 5.15 U). The total treatment satisfaction score showed a significant increase from study baseline to end point. Significant increases in SOD(90.00 ± 16.62 to 108.81 ± 27.02 u/ml, P < 0.01) and reductions in 8-iso-PG(2.15 ± 0.61 to 1.64 ± 0.42 pg/ml, P < 0.05) were observed between the start and end of the observation period. There were significant differences in baseline HbA1c, duration of diabetes, and baseline postprandial C-peptide between the A1c ≤ 6.5% group and the A1c > 7.0% group [HbA1c: 7.25% ± 1.02% vs. 9.32% ± 1.23%; duration: 7.84 ± 1.02 vs. 13.96 ± 1.35 years; postprandial C-peptide: 4.83 ± 2.11 vs 2.54 ± 0.87 nmol/L, all P < 0.05]. CONCLUSIONS: The observational study shows that, in T2DM patients inadequately controlled with premixed insulin, switching therapy to glargine plus OADs is associated with significant improvements in glycaemic control and treatment satisfaction, and is with low incidence of hypoglycemia. Baseline postprandial C-peptide, HbA1c, and duration of diabetes are the key factors closely related to efficacy of this treatment regimen.