Spatio-temporal distribution and influencing factors of norovirus outbreaks in Beijing, China from 2016 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: Noroviruses are a leading cause of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) worldwide. The geographical characteristics of norovirus outbreaks in Beijing and their influencing factors remain unknown. This study aimed to explore the spatial distributions, geographical characteristics, and influencing factors of norovirus outbreaks in Beijing, China. METHODS: Epidemiological data and specimens were collected through the AGE outbreak surveillance system in all 16 districts of Beijing. Data on spatial distribution, geographical characteristics, and influencing factors of norovirus outbreaks were analyzed using descriptive statistics methods. We measured spatial, geographical clustering of high- or low-value deviance from random distribution using Z-scores and P-values as statistical significance measures with Global Moran's I statistics and Getis-Ord Gi in ArcGIS. Linear regression and correlation methods were used to explore influencing factors. RESULTS: Between September 2016 and August 2020, 1,193 norovirus outbreaks were laboratory-confirmed. The number of outbreaks varied seasonally, typically peaking in spring (March to May) or winter (October to December). Outbreaks primarily occurred around central districts at the town level, and spatial autocorrelation was evident in both the entire study period and in individual years. Hotspots of norovirus outbreaks in Beijing were primarily found in contiguous areas between three central districts (Chaoyang, Haidian, Fengtai) and four suburban districts (Changping, Daxing, Fangshan, Tongzhou). The average population numbers, mean number of all schools, and mean number of kindergartens and primary schools for towns in central districts and hotspot areas were higher than those in suburban districts and non-hotspot areas respectively. Additionally, population numbers and densities of kindergartens and primary schools were influencing factors at the town level. CONCLUSIONS: Hotspots of norovirus outbreaks in Beijing were in contiguous areas between central and suburban districts with high populations, and high kindergarten and primary school densities were the likely driving forces. Outbreak surveillance needs to focus on contiguous areas between central and suburban districts with increased monitoring, medical resources, and health education.

The temperature-mortality relationship in China: An analysis from 66 Chinese communities.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies examining temperature-mortality associations in China focused on a single city or a small number of cities. A multi-city study covering different climatic zones is necessary to better understand regional differences in temperature risk on mortality in China. METHODS: Sixty-six communities from 7 regions across China were included in this study. We first used a Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) to estimate community-specific effects of temperature on non-accidental mortality during 2006-2011. A multivariate meta-analysis was then applied to pool the estimates of community-specific effects. RESULTS: A U-shaped curve was observed between temperature and mortality at the national level in China, indicating both low and high temperatures were associated with increased mortality risk. The overall threshold was at about the 75th percentile of the pooled temperature distribution. The relative risk was 1.61 (95% CI: 1.48-1.74) for extremely cold temperature (1st percentile of temperature), and 1.21 (95% CI: 1.10-1.34) for extreme hot temperature (99th percentile of temperature) at lag0-21 days. The temperature-mortality relationship is different for different regions. Compared with north China, south China had a higher minimum mortality temperature (MMT), and there was a larger cold effect in the more southern parts of China and a more pronounced hot effect in more northern parts. CONCLUSIONS: Both cold and hot temperatures increase mortality risk in China, and the relationship varies geographically. Our findings suggest that public health policies for climate change adaptation should be tailored to the local climate conditions.

[Postpartum pelvic floor rehabilitation on prevention of female pelvic floor dysfunction: a multicenter prospective randomized controlled study].

OBJECTIVE: To study the postpartum pelvic floor rehabilitation on the improvement of pelvic floor electrical physiological indexes and the prevention of female pelvic floor dysfunction in China. METHODS: A multicenter prospective randomized controlled study was carried out. From October 2011, postpartum women in five provinces were randomly assigned into treatment group and control group. The women in treatment group received electrical stimulation and biofeedback treatment. The women in control group performed pelvic floor muscle exercise at home. When 6 months and 12 months after delivery, comparing two groups of patients with pelvic floor electrical physiological indexes and pelvic organ prolapse quantitation measurements (POP-Q), to evaluate the effect of postpartum pelvic floor rehabilitation on the prevention of pelvic floor dysfunction. Pelvic floor impact questionnaire short form (PFIQ-7) and pelvic organ prolapse/incontinence sexual questionnaire-12 (PISQ-12) were used to evaluate the influence on quality of life and sexual life. RESULTS: Until June 2013, 324 women were participated, 124 in control group, 200 in treatment group. According to the baseline results, there was statistical significance in the results of pelvic floor electrical physiological indexes between the treatment and control groups in postpartum 6 months and 12 months; the proportion above level III of type I and type II muscle fibers strength in the treatment group, it was from 41.5% (83/200) and 40.5% (81/200) to 76.3% (145/190) and 79.5% (151/190) in postpartum 6 weeks and postpartum 6 months, increased to 80.6% (58/72) and 80.6% (58/72) in postpartum 12 months, improved significantly comparing with the control group (P < 0.01). According to Point Aa, treatment group and control group in the postpartum 6 weeks was (-2.2 ± 0.7) versus (-2.4 ± 0.6) cm, in postpartum 12 months (- 2.5 ± 1.1) versus (- 2.7 ± 0.6) cm, the improvement in treatment group was statistically significant (P < 0.01). And the other points were not significantly different (P > 0.05). There was no significant difference in the questionnaires in quality of life and quality of sexual life (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Neuromuscular electrical stimulation and biofeedback therapy in the early postpartum period could obviously improve pelvic floor electrical physiological indexes, and is beneficial to prevent the pelvic floor dysfunction.

[Statistical model analysis of primary angle closure glaucoma associated genes and SNP].

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate GWAS significant associated SNP for primary angle closure glaucoma. METHODS: Experimental study. Taking advantage of different statistical models, the usefulness was evaluated by sensitivity, specificity and the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC), which indicates the accuracy of genetic profiling in discriminating between primary angle closure glaucoma patients and normal controls. RESULTS: rs11024102 (PLEKHA7) had a sensitivity of 55.88% with a specificity of 51.31%; the sensitivity and specificity of rs3753841 (COL11A1) was 54.47% and 51.00% respectively. The sensitivity of rs1015213 (PCNTD1-ST18) and rs1401999 (ABCC5) were 59.93% and 52.97%. The specificity of these two SNP were 45.32% and 50.00%. The positive predictive value curves of these four SNP were nearly reference line. The area under the curve (AUC) of four SNP combined was 0.51 and 0.52 in two situations. CONCLUSION: These four GWAS significant SNP could not be used for primary angle closure glaucoma patients screening in clinic.

[Association between mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma and the distance from Suihe River in Lingbi county, Anhui province].

OBJECTIVE: To explore the association between mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma and the distance from Suihe River in Lingbi county, Suzhou, Anhui province. METHODS: Using the disease mapping and spatial statistical analysis techniques,we described the spatial distributions of the mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma from 2005 to 2010 in Lingbi county. Taking the distance between villages and polluted rivers as proxy variable of environmental exposure, mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma in each village as dependant variable, and using the Glimmix model and Bayesian spatial model (BYM) to undertake the univariate and multivariate analysis, we investigatived the association between mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma and the water pollution of Suihe River in Lingbi county. RESULTS: Obvious clustering of high mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma along the polluted river was observed in Lingbi county. Results of Glimmix model showed that whether spatial autocorrelation was considered or not, closer to the polluted river has higher mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma. Results of univariate analysis of the BYM model showed that, compared with the villages far from the polluted river more than 12 km (the mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma was 33.12/100 000(1068/3 224 562) ), the RR values of the hepatic carcinoma mortality was 1.38(95%CI:1.06-1.82) for the villages apart from the polluted river within 6 km (the mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma was 42.48/100 000(777/1 829 064)), and 1.13 (95%CI:0.92-1.39) for villages apart from the river between 6 and 12 km (the mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma was 35.65/100 000(651/1 825 848)). In the BYM model multivariate analysis, adding the volume of fertilizer and pesticides used per cultivated area, GDP per capita to do multivariate analysis were, the relation between mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma and distance from polluted rivers remains unchanged. CONCLUSION: The mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma was associated with the exposure to the polluted river in Lingbi county. The polluted river may increase the hepatic carcinoma mortality of nearby residents.

Patterns in the Incidence of Scarlet Fever Among Children Aged 0-9 Years - China, 2010-2019.

Introduction: This study investigates the patterns of scarlet fever among Chinese children aged 0-9 years from 2010 to 2019. The objective is to provide insights that may inform potential adjustments to China's current prevention and control tactics for this illness. Methods: The present study utilized data on the occurrence of scarlet fever in children from 2010 to 2019, sourced from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System database, managed by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. This research implemented SAS9.4 software to construct trajectory models representing the temporal incidence of scarlet fever, accounting for key variables such as sex, geographic region, urban versus rural dwellings, and various age brackets. Results: From 2010 to 2019, a total of 554,695 scarlet fever cases were reported among children aged 0-9 years in the 31 mainland Chinese provincial-level administrative divisions, signifying a rate of 35.36 per 100,000 individuals. An inconsistent yet generally rising trend was observed, evidenced by a 3.17-fold increase in reported cases and a 3.02-fold escalation in incidence rate over this period. Examination of these trends revealed three distinctive developmental patterns for both males and females, with the lowest prevalence in the first trajectory and the highest in the third. The incidence was consistently higher among males than females in all trajectories. The urban and northern regions displayed equal or greater trajectory rates than their rural and southern counterparts, respectively. In terms of age groups, the lowest incidence was observed in the 0-1-year age group, while the highest was recorded in the 4-5 and 6-7-year age groups. Conclusions: Between 2010 and 2019, there was a marked increase in the incidence of scarlet fever among children in China. The disease predominantly impacts urban-dwelling children, ranging from 4 to 7 years old, in the northern regions of the country. The incidence is reported to be higher among boys compared to girls.

Control strategies and their effects on the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in representative countries.

COVID-19 is the most severe pandemic globally since the 1918 influenza pandemic. Effectively responding to this once-in-a-century global pandemic is a worldwide challenge that the international community needs to jointly face and solve. This study reviews and discusses the key measures taken by major countries in 2020 to fight against COVID-19, such as lockdowns, social distancing, wearing masks, hand hygiene, using Fangcang shelter hospitals, large-scale nucleic acid testing, close-contacts tracking, and pandemic information monitoring, as well as their prevention and control effects. We hope it can help improve the efficiency and effectiveness of pandemic prevention and control in future.

Disproportionate Increase of New Diagnosis of HIV/AIDS Infection by Sex and Age - China, 2007-2018.

What is already known about this topic? The annual rates of newly diagnosed HIV/AIDS among total population is increasing in China, yet HIV/AIDS in older adults has received little attention. What is added by this report? The overall rates of new diagnosis of HIV/AIDS per 100,000 populations increased 3.26 and 2.18 times among male and female in all ages from 2007 to 2018, respectively. Among adults aged ≥60 years, the rate increased 10.41 times (1.35 to 14.06 per 100,000) from 2007 to 2018. Male adults aged 60-69 and 70-79 years and female aged 50-59 and 60-69 years had the highest increasing rates among all groups. What are the implications for public health practice? This study highlights the need to strengthen HIV/AIDS prevention among older adults. Health education and other effective measurements might be used to prevent HIV/AIDS among this group.

Predicting the Incident Cases of Emerging Infectious Disease Using a Bayesian Probability Model - China, February 2020.

WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS TOPIC?: The exact number of incident cases of emerging infectious diseases on a daily basis is of great importance to the disease control and prevention, but it is not directly available from the current surveillance system in time. WHAT IS ADDED BY THIS REPORT?: In this study, a Bayesian statistical method was proposed to estimate the posterior parameters of the gamma probability distribution of the lag time between the onset date and the reporting time based on the surveillance data. And then the posterior parameters and corresponding cumulative gamma probability distribution were used to predict the actual number of new incident cases and the number of unreported cases per day. The proposed method was used for predicting COVID-19 incident cases from February 5 to February 26, 2020. The final results show that Bayesian probability model predictions based on data reported by February 28, 2020 are very close to those actually reported a month later. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE?: This research provides a Bayesian statistical approach for early estimation of the actual number of cases of incidence based on surveillance data, which is of great value in the prevention and control practice of epidemics.

Association of reduced folate carrier gene polymorphism and maternal folic acid use with neural tube defects.

This study was designed to investigate whether the risk for neural tube defects (NTDs) was associated with reduced folate carrier gene (RFC1 A80G) polymorphism and/or with the interaction between the RFC1 gene and maternal periconceptional use of folic acid. One hundred four nuclear families with NTDs and 100 non-malformed control families were sampled to investigate the potential interaction between maternal or the offspring's RFC1 (A80G) genotypes and the maternal periconceptional use of folic acid through a population-based case-control study. RFC1 (A80G) genotypes were detected using PCR-restricted fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP). Mother who had the GG genotype and did not take folic acid had an elevated risk for NTDs (OR = 5.43, 95% CI = 1.68-18.28) as compared to the mother who had AA or GA genotype and took maternal periconceptional folic acid. The interactive coefficient was 1.12 between maternal GG genotype and the periconceptional folic acid non-use. The risk for having an infant with NTDs was 8.80 (95% CI = 2.83-28.69) for offspring with the GG genotype, as compared to the offspring with AA or GA genotype among the mothers who did not take folic acid supplements. The interactive coefficient was 1.45 for offspring with the GG genotype and without maternal periconceptional supplementation of folic acid. Our findings suggest that there is a potential gene-environment interaction on the risk of NTDs between maternal or offspring RFC1 GG genotype and maternal periconceptional intake of folic acid. The RFC1 is likely to be an important candidate gene in folate transportation and RFC1 GG genotype (A80G) may be associated with an increased risk for NTDs in this Chinese population.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Influenza in China, 2005-2018.

Influenza is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, as well as in China. Knowledge of the spatial and temporal characteristics of influenza is important in evaluating and developing disease control programs. This study aims to describe an accurate spatiotemporal pattern of influenza at the prefecture level and explore the risk factors associated with influenza incidence risk in mainland China from 2005 to 2018. The incidence data of influenza were obtained from the Chinese Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System (CNIDRS). The Besag York Mollié (BYM) model was extended to include temporal and space-time interaction terms. The parameters for this extended Bayesian spatiotemporal model were estimated through integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA) using the package R-INLA in R. A total of 702,226 influenza cases were reported in mainland China in CNIDRS from 2005-2018. The yearly reported incidence rate of influenza increased 15.6 times over the study period, from 3.51 in 2005 to 55.09 in 2008 per 100,000 populations. The temporal term in the spatiotemporal model showed that much of the increase occurred during the last 3 years of the study period. The risk factor analysis showed that the decreased number of influenza vaccines for sale, the new update of the influenza surveillance protocol, the increase in the rate of influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 among all processed specimens from influenza-like illness (ILI) patients, and the increase in the latitude and longitude of geographic location were associated with an increase in the influenza incidence risk. After the adjusting for fixed covariate effects and time random effects, the map of the spatial structured term shows that high-risk areas clustered in the central part of China and the lowest-risk areas in the east and west. Large space-time variations in influenza have been found since 2009. In conclusion, an increasing trend of influenza was observed from 2005 to 2018. The insufficient flu vaccine supplements, the newly emerging influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 and expansion of influenza surveillance efforts might be the major causes of the dramatic changes in outbreak and spatio-temporal epidemic patterns. Clusters of prefectures with high relative risks of influenza were identified in the central part of China. Future research with more risk factors at both national and local levels is necessary to explain the changing spatiotemporal patterns of influenza in China.

[Application of spatial relative risk estimation in communicable disease risk evaluation].

This paper summaries the application of adaptive kernel density algorithm in the spatial relative risk estimation of communicable diseases by using the reported data of infectious diarrhea (other than cholera, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid) in Ludian county and surrounding area in Yunnan province in 2013. Statistically significant fluctuations in an estimated risk function were identified through the use of asymptotic tolerance contours, and finally these data were visualized though disease mapping. The results of spatial relative risk estimation and disease mapping showed that high risk areas were in southeastern Shaoyang next to Ludian. Therefore, the spatial relative risk estimation of disease by using adaptive kernel density algorithm and disease mapping technique is a powerful method in identifying high risk population and areas.

The short-term effect of heat waves on mortality and its modifiers in China: an analysis from 66 communities.

BACKGROUND: Many studies have reported increased mortality risk associated with heat waves. However, few have assessed the health impacts at a nation scale in a developing country. This study examines the mortality effects of heat waves in China and explores whether the effects are modified by individual-level and community-level characteristics. METHODS: Daily mortality and meteorological variables from 66 Chinese communities were collected for the period 2006-2011. Heat waves were defined as ≥2 consecutive days with mean temperature ≥95th percentile of the year-round community-specific distribution. The community-specific mortality effects of heat waves were first estimated using a Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM), adjusting for potential confounders. To investigate effect modification by individual characteristics (age, gender, cause of death, education level or place of death), separate DLNM models were further fitted. Potential effect modification by community characteristics was examined using a meta-regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 5.0% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 2.9%-7.2%) excess deaths were associated with heat waves in 66 Chinese communities, with the highest excess deaths in north China (6.0%, 95% CI: 1%-11.3%), followed by east China (5.2%, 95% CI: 0.4%-10.2%) and south China (4.5%, 95% CI: 1.4%-7.6%). Our results indicate that individual characteristics significantly modified heat waves effects in China, with greater effects on cardiovascular mortality, cerebrovascular mortality, respiratory mortality, the elderly, females, the population dying outside of a hospital and those with a higher education attainment. Heat wave mortality effects were also more pronounced for those living in urban cities or densely populated communities. CONCLUSION: Heat waves significantly increased mortality risk in China with apparent spatial heterogeneity, which was modified by some individual-level and community-level factors. Our findings suggest adaptation plans that target vulnerable populations in susceptible communities during heat wave events should be developed to reduce health risks.

Exploration of diarrhoea seasonality and its drivers in China.

This study investigated the diarrhoea seasonality and its potential drivers as well as potential opportunities for future diarrhoea control and prevention in China. Data on weekly infectious diarrhoea cases in 31 provinces of China from 2005 to 2012, and data on demographic and geographic characteristics, as well as climatic factors, were complied. A cosinor function combined with a Poisson regression was used to calculate the three seasonal parameters of diarrhoea in different provinces. Regression tree analysis was used to identify the predictors of diarrhoea seasonality. Diarrhoea cases in China showed a bimodal distribution. Diarrhoea in children <5 years was more likely to peak in fall-winter seasons, while diarrhoea in persons > = 5 years peaked in summer. Latitude was significantly associated with spatial pattern of diarrhoea seasonality, with peak and trough times occurring earlier at high latitudes (northern areas), and later at low latitudes (southern areas). The annual amplitudes of diarrhoea in persons > = 5 years increased with latitude (r = 0.62, P<0.001). Latitude 27.8° N and 38.65° N were the latitudinal thresholds for diarrhoea seasonality in China. Regional-specific diarrhoea control and prevention strategies may be optimal for China. More attention should be paid to diarrhoea in children <5 years during fall-winter seasons.

Spatiotemporal pattern of bacillary dysentery in China from 1990 to 2009: what is the driver behind?

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the spatiotemporal pattern of bacillary dysentery (BD) in China. This study assessed the geographic distribution and seasonality of BD in China over the past two decades. METHODS: Data on monthly BD cases in 31 provinces of China from January 1990 to December 2009 obtained from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and data on demographic and geographic factors, as well as climatic factors, were compiled. The spatial distributions of BD in the four periods across different provinces were mapped, and heat maps were created to present the seasonality of BD by geography. A cosinor function combined with Poisson regression was used to quantify the seasonal parameters of BD, and a regression analysis was conducted to identify the potential drivers of morbidity and seasonality of BD. RESULTS: Although most regions of China have experienced considerable declines in BD morbidity over the past two decades, Beijing and Ningxia still had high BD morbidity in 2009. BD morbidity decreased more slowly in North-west China than other regions. BD in China mainly peaked from July to September, with heterogeneity in peak time between regions. Relative humidity was associated with BD morbidity and peak time, and latitude was the major predictor of BD amplitude. CONCLUSIONS: The transmission of BD was heterogeneous in China. Improved sanitation and hygiene in North-west China, and better access to clean water and food in the big floating population in some metropolises could be the focus of future preventive interventions against BD. BD control efforts should put more emphasis on those dry areas in summer.

[Analysis on the clustering of liver cancer mortality in Lingbi county, Anhui province, from 2005 to 2010].

OBJECTIVE: To observe the mortality and its changes on liver cancer in the past 30 years as well as to describe the spatial distribution of liver cancer deaths between 2005 and 2010 in Lingbi, Anhui province. METHODS: Using the mortality data from 1973-1975 and from 2005 to 2010 in Lingbi to compare with the relative national and historical data, to observe the trend of rapid increase on liver cancer mortality in Lingbi. Using the Poisson model, BYM model and hotspot detection method, standardized mortality ratio(SMR), relative risk(RR)value of liver cancer deaths of each village were calculated and the clustering of high liver cancer deaths was identified. RESULTS: Through an increase of 223.7% on the SMR of liver cancer in the past 30 years, the standardized mortality of liver cancer in Lingbi had an increase of 74.1 percent than the national level in 2005-2010 but it was 22.7% lower than the country level in 1973-1975. The SMR and RR values and their P values were higher in the villages which were located along the Kuisui River. Data from the clustering analysis showed that there had been significantly positive autocorrelation at the altitude of 5300 meters, and a very obvious hot spot of liver cancer deaths existing along the Kuisui River, especially at the bifurcation of the old Sui River and new Sui River was observed. CONCLUSION: There was an alarming increase of liver cancer mortality in the past 30 years in Lingbi. The high mortality area mainly covered the villages along the Kuisui River, suggesting that there were common risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma in the population at risk.