Research Opportunities in Stroke Prevention for Atrial Fibrillation: A Report From a National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Virtual Workshop.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the strongest risk factors for ischemic stroke, which is a leading cause of disability and death. Given the aging population, increasing prevalence of AF risk factors, and improved survival in those with cardiovascular disease, the number of individuals affected by AF will continue increasing over time. While multiple proven stroke prevention therapies exist, important questions remain about the optimal approach to stroke prevention at the population and individual patient levels. Our report summarizes the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute virtual workshop focused on identifying key research opportunities related to stroke prevention in AF. The workshop reviewed major knowledge gaps and identified targeted research opportunities to advance stroke prevention in AF in the following areas: (1) improving risk stratification tools for stroke and intracranial hemorrhage; (2) addressing challenges with oral anticoagulants; and (3) delineating the optimal roles of percutaneous left atrial appendage occlusion and surgical left atrial appendage closure/excision. This report aims to promote innovative, impactful research that will lead to more personalized, effective use of stroke prevention strategies in people with AF.

Measures of Body Size and Composition and Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation in Older People: The Cardiovascular Health Study.

Various anthropometric measures, including height, have been associated with atrial fibrillation (AF). This raises questions about the appropriateness of using ratio measures such as body mass index (BMI), which contains height squared in its denominator, in the evaluation of AF risk. Among older adults, the optimal anthropometric approach to risk stratification of AF remains uncertain. Anthropometric and bioelectrical impedance measures were obtained from 4,276 participants (mean age = 72.4 years) free of cardiovascular disease in the Cardiovascular Health Study. During follow-up (1989-2008), 1,050 cases of AF occurred. BMI showed a U-shaped association, whereas height, weight, waist circumference, hip circumference, fat mass, and fat-free mass were linearly related to incident AF. The strongest adjusted association occurred for height (per each 1-standard-deviation increment, hazard ratio = 1.38, 95% confidence interval: 1.25, 1.51), which exceeded all other measures, including weight (hazard ratio = 1.21, 95% confidence interval: 1.13, 1.29). Combined assessment of log-transformed weight and height showed regression coefficients that departed from the 1 to -2 ratio inherent in BMI, indicating a loss of predictive information. Risk estimates for AF tended to be stronger for hip circumference than for waist circumference and for fat-free mass than for fat mass, which was explained largely by height. These findings highlight the prominent role of body size and the inadequacy of BMI as determinants of AF in older adults.

Fibrosis-related biomarkers and risk of total and cause-specific mortality: the cardiovascular health study.

Fibrosis has been implicated in diverse diseases of the liver, kidney, lungs, and heart, but its importance as a risk factor for mortality remains unconfirmed. We determined the prospective associations of 2 complementary biomarkers of fibrosis, transforming growth factor-ß (TGF-ß) and procollagen type III N-terminal propeptide (PIIINP), with total and cause-specific mortality risks among community-living older adults in the Cardiovascular Health Study (1996-2010). We measured circulating TGF-ß and PIIINP levels in plasma samples collected in 1996 and ascertained the number of deaths through 2010. Both TGF-ß and PIIINP were associated with elevated risks of total and pulmonary mortality after adjustment for sociodemographic, clinical, and biochemical risk factors. For total mortality, the hazard ratios per doubling of TGF-ß and PIIINP were 1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01, 1.17; P = 0.02) and 1.14 (CI: 1.03, 1.27; P = 0.01), respectively. The corresponding hazard ratios for pulmonary mortality were 1.27 (CI: 1.01, 1.60; P = 0.04) for TGF-ß and 1.52 (CI: 1.11, 2.10; P = 0.01) for PIIINP. Associations of TGF-ß and PIIINP with total and pulmonary mortality were strongest among individuals with higher C-reactive protein concentrations (P for interaction < 0.05). Our findings provide some of the first large-scale prospective evidence that circulating biomarkers of fibrosis measured late in life are associated with death.

Circulating fibrosis biomarkers and risk of atrial fibrillation: The Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS).

BACKGROUND: Cardiac fibrosis is thought to play a central role in the pathogenesis of atrial fibrillation (AF). Retrospective studies have suggested that circulating fibrosis biomarkers are associated with AF, but prospective studies are limited. METHODS: We measured circulating levels of 2 fibrosis biomarkers, procollagen type III, N-terminal propeptide (PIIINP) and transforming growth factor ß1 among participants of the CHS, a population-based study of older Americans. We used Cox proportional hazards and competing risks models to examine adjusted risk of incident AF over a median follow-up of 8.8 years. RESULTS: Levels of PIIINP were assessed in 2,935 participants, of whom 767 developed AF. Compared with the median PIIINP level (4.45 µg/L), adjusted hazard ratios (95% CIs) were 0.85 (0.72-1.00) at the 10th percentile, 0.93 (0.88-0.99) at the 25th percentile, 1.04 (0.95-1.04) at the 75th percentile, and 1.07 (0.90-1.26) at the 90th. Transforming growth factor ß1 levels, assessed in 1,538 participants with 408 cases of incident AF, were not associated with AF risk. CONCLUSION: In older adults, PIIINP levels were associated with risk of incident AF in a complex manner, with an association that appeared to be positive up to median levels but with little relationship beyond that. Further studies are required to confirm and possibly delineate the mechanism for this relationship.

Associations of total and high-molecular-weight adiponectin with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in older persons: the Cardiovascular Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Adiponectin shows opposite associations with adverse outcomes in healthy middle-aged populations (lower risk) and cohorts with prevalent cardiovascular disease, heart failure, or advanced age (higher risk). METHODS AND RESULTS: In a population-based study of older adults, we examined the relationships of total and high-molecular-weight adiponectin with mortality among subgroups defined by baseline cardiovascular status: No cardiovascular disease, heart failure, or atrial fibrillation (group 1); cardiovascular disease but no heart failure/atrial fibrillation (group 2); and heart failure/atrial fibrillation (group 3). We found significant differences in the associations with all-cause mortality across the groups. The association in group 1 was U-shaped; increasing levels of total adiponectin up to 12.4 mg/L were associated with lower mortality after adjustment for confounders (hazard ratio=0.81 per 1 SD [95% confidence interval, 0.65-0.95]), but above this cut point, higher levels conferred greater risk (hazard ratio=1.19 [95% confidence interval, 1.12-1.27]). Further adjustment for diabetes mellitus or insulin resistance, protection against which has been proposed to mediate the beneficial relationships of adiponectin with outcome, attenuated the association in the lower range. There was no significant association in group 2, but in group 3, total adiponectin showed a direct adjusted association. Additional adjustment for putative metabolic/inflammatory intermediates suggested a direct association for group 2, and magnified the one for group 3 (hazard ratio=1.31 [1.15-1.50]). Results were similar for high-molecular-weight adiponectin and for cardiovascular mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Adiponectin exhibits distinct associations with mortality in elders, which shift from U-shaped to flat to direct with greater baseline cardiovascular dysfunction but become more consistently adverse after accounting for metabolic/inflammatory factors presumed to be favorably regulated by the adipokine. These findings advance understanding of the adiponectin paradox as it relates to older adults.

Association of fetuin-a with incident diabetes mellitus in community-living older adults: the cardiovascular health study.

BACKGROUND: The liver-secreted protein fetuin-A induces peripheral insulin resistance in vitro. In a pilot study, we observed that higher fetuin-A levels were associated with diabetes mellitus in older persons. However, this finding has not been confirmed in large cohorts. We sought to confirm the association of fetuin-A with incident diabetes mellitus in older persons and to determine whether the association differs by age, sex, and race and among persons with cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: Among 3710 community-living individuals ≥ 65 years of age without diabetes mellitus at baseline, fetuin-A was measured in serum collected in 1992 to 1993. Participants were followed up for 10.6 years (median) for incident diabetes mellitus. Cox regression models evaluated the association of fetuin-A with incident diabetes mellitus. Interaction terms evaluated heterogeneity by age, sex, race, and CVD. Mean age was 75 years; 60 were female; 15 were black; and 16 had CVD. Mean fetuin-A concentrations were 0.47 ± 0.10 g/L. During follow-up, 305 incident diabetes cases occurred. Each 0.10-g/L (SD)-greater fetuin-A was associated with 19 higher risk of diabetes mellitus (hazard ratio, 1.19; 95 confidence interval, 1.06-1.33) after adjustment for demographics, lifestyle factors, albumin, kidney function, and CVD. Further adjustment for potential mediators (body mass index, waist circumference, hypertension, lipids, and C-reactive protein) moderately attenuated the association (hazard ratio, 1.13; 95 confidence interval, 1.00-1.28). Results were similar by sex, race, and CVD status but were stronger in persons <75 years old (P for interaction=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Higher fetuin-A is associated with incident diabetes mellitus in older persons regardless of sex, race, or prevalent CVD status. The association may be attenuated in those ≥ 75 years of age.

Association of body mass index with peripheral arterial disease in older adults: the Cardiovascular Health Study.

The authors hypothesized that the absence of cross-sectional associations of body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)(2)) with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) in prior studies may reflect lower weight among persons who smoke or have poor health status. They conducted an observational study among 5,419 noninstitutionalized residents of 4 US communities aged ≥ 65 years at baseline (1989-1990 or 1992-1993). Ankle brachial index was measured, and participants reported their history of PAD procedures. Participants were followed longitudinally for adjudicated incident PAD events. At baseline, mean BMI was 26.6 (standard deviation, 4.6), and 776 participants (14%) had prevalent PAD. During 13.2 (median) years of follow-up through June 30, 2007, 276 incident PAD events occurred. In cross-sectional analysis, each 5-unit increase in BMI was inversely associated with PAD (prevalence ratio (PR) = 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.85, 1.00). However, among persons in good health who had never smoked, the direction of association was opposite (PR = 1.20, 95% CI: 0.94, 1.52). Similar results were observed between BMI calculated using weight at age 50 years and PAD prevalence (PR = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.11, 1.51) and between BMI at baseline and incident PAD events occurring during follow-up (hazard ratio = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.76) among never smokers in good health. Greater BMI is associated with PAD in older persons who remain healthy and have never smoked. Normal weight maintenance may decrease PAD incidence and associated comorbidity in older age.

Measures of adiposity and future risk of ischemic stroke and coronary heart disease in older men and women.

The relation between measures of general and central adiposity and individual cardiovascular endpoints remains understudied in older adults. This study investigated the association of measures of body size and composition with incident ischemic stroke or coronary heart disease (1989-2007) in 3,754 community-dwelling US adults aged 65-100 years. Standardized anthropometry and bioelectric impedance measurements were obtained at baseline. Body mass index at age 50 years (BMI50) was calculated on the basis of recalled weight. Although only waist/hip ratio was significantly associated with ischemic stroke in quintile analysis in women, dichotomized body mass index (BMI) (≥ 30 kg/m²) was the only significant predictor in men. For coronary heart disease, there were significant positive adjusted associations for all adiposity measures, without interaction by sex. This was true for both quintiles and conventional cutpoints for obesity, although BMI-defined overweight (25-29.9 kg/m² was significant at midlife but not at baseline. Strengths of association for extreme quintiles (quintile 5 vs. quintile 1) were broadly comparable, but the highest effect estimates were for waist/hip ratio (hazard ratio = 1.56, 95% confidence interval: 1.25, 1.94) and BMI50 (hazard ratio = 1.71, 95% confidence interval: 1.37, 2.14), both of which remained significant after adjustment for mediators, BMI, or each other. Whether these differences translate to better risk prediction will require meta-analytical approaches, as will determination of prognostic cutpoints.

Advanced glycation endproduct crosslink breaker (alagebrium) improves endothelial function in patients with isolated systolic hypertension.

OBJECTIVES: Arterial stiffening and endothelial dysfunction are hallmarks of aging, and advanced glycation endproducts (AGE) may contribute to these changes. We tested the hypothesis that AGE crosslink breakers enhance endothelial flow-mediated dilation (FMD) in humans and examined the potential mechanisms for this effect. METHODS: Thirteen adults (nine men, aged 65 +/- 2 years) with isolated systolic hypertension (systolic blood pressure > 140 mmHg, diastolic blood pressure < 90 mmHg or pulse pressure > 60 mmHg) on stable antihypertensive therapy were studied. Subjects received placebo (2 weeks) then oral alagebrium (ALT-711; 210 mg twice a day for 8 weeks). Subjects and data analyses were blinded to treatment. Arterial stiffness was assessed by carotid augmentation index (AI) and brachial artery distensibility (ArtD) using applanation tonometry and Doppler echo, and endothelial function by brachial FMD. Serum markers of collagen metabolism and vascular inflammation were assessed. RESULTS: Alagebrium reduced carotid AI by 37% (P = 0.007) and augmented pressure (16.4 +/- 10 to 9.6 +/- 9 mmHg; P < 0.001). Heart rate, arterial pressures, and ArtD, were unchanged. FMD increased from 4.6 +/- 1.1 to 7.1 +/- 1.1% with alagebrium (P < 0.05), and was unrelated to altered shear stress or regional arterial distensibility. However, FMD change was inversely related to markers of collagen synthesis, p-selectin and intracellular cell adhesion molecule (all P < 0.05). Alagebrium-associated changes in plasma nitrite plus nitrate was inversely correlated with plasma matrix metalloproteinase 9 and type I collagen (P = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: Alagebrium enhances peripheral artery endothelial function and improves overall impedance matching. Improved endothelial function correlates better with reduced vascular fibrosis and inflammation markers than with vessel distensibility. AGE-crosslink breakers may reduce cardiovascular risk in older adults by reduced central arterial stiffness and vascular remodeling.

Mechanisms, pathophysiology, and therapy of arterial stiffness.

Arterial stiffness is a growing epidemic associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events, dementia, and death. Decreased compliance of the central vasculature alters arterial pressure and flow dynamics and impacts cardiac performance and coronary perfusion. This article reviews the structural, cellular, and genetic contributors to arterial stiffness, including the roles of the scaffolding proteins, extracellular matrix, inflammatory molecules, endothelial cell function, and reactive oxidant species. Additional influences of atherosclerosis, glucose regulation, chronic renal disease, salt, and changes in neurohormonal regulation are discussed. A review of the hemodynamic impact of arterial stiffness follows. A number of lifestyle changes and therapies that reduce arterial stiffness are presented, including weight loss, exercise, salt reduction, alcohol consumption, and neuroendocrine-directed therapies, such as those targeting the renin-angiotensin aldosterone system, natriuretic peptides, insulin modulators, as well as novel therapies that target advanced glycation end products.

Higher circulating adiponectin levels are associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Adiponectin has cardioprotective properties, suggesting that lower levels seen in obesity and diabetes could heighten risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). Among older adults, however, higher adiponectin has been linked to greater incidence of adverse outcomes associated with AF, although recent reports have shown this association to be U-shaped. We postulated that higher adiponectin would be linked to increased risk for AF in older adults in a U-shaped manner. METHODS: We examined the associations of total and high-molecular-weight (HMW) adiponectin with incident AF among individuals free of prevalent cardiovascular disease (CVD) participating in a population-based cohort study of older adults (n=3190; age=74±5 years). RESULTS: During median follow-up of 11.4 years, there were 886 incident AF events. Adjusted cubic splines showed a positive and linear association between adiponectin and incident AF. After adjusting for potential confounders, including amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide 1-76, the HR (95% CI) for AF per SD increase in total adiponectin was 1.14 (1.05 to 1.24), while that for HMW adiponectin was 1.17 (1.08 to 1.27). Additional adjustment for putative mediators, including subclinical CVD, diabetes, lipids and inflammation, did not significantly affect these estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The present findings demonstrate that higher, not lower, levels of adiponectin are independently associated with increased risk of AF in older adults despite its documented cardiometabolic benefits. Additional work is necessary to determine if adiponectin is a marker of failed counter-regulatory pathways or whether this hormone is directly harmful in the setting of or as a result of advanced age.

Advanced glycation endproduct crosslinking in the cardiovascular system: potential therapeutic target for cardiovascular disease.

Advanced glycation endproducts (AGEs) are formed by a reaction between reducing sugars and biological amines. Because of their marked stability, glycated proteins accumulate slowly over a person's lifespan, and can contribute to age-associated structural and physiological changes in the cardiovascular system such as increased vascular and myocardial stiffness, endothelial dysfunction, altered vascular injury responses and atherosclerotic plaque formation. The mechanisms by which AGEs affect the cardiovascular system include collagen crosslinking, alteration of low-density lipoprotein molecules and impairment of cellular nitric oxide signalling through their interaction with AGE receptors (RAGEs). Thus, the accumulation of AGEs may help to explain the increased cardiac risk associated with aging as well as diabetes mellitus and hypertension, two conditions that accelerate and enhance AGE formation. A variety of new pharmacological approaches are being developed to reduce the pathophysiological impact of AGEs. These agents can prevent AGE and AGE crosslink formation, break pre-existing AGE crosslinks, and block the interaction between AGEs and RAGEs. Such agents have been shown to reduce vascular and myocardial stiffness, inhibit atherosclerotic plaque formation and improve endothelial function in animal models. Improvement in vascular compliance has also been demonstrated with AGE crosslink breakers in clinical trials. These studies offer promise to reduce the cardiac risk associated with isolated systolic hypertension, diastolic dysfunction and diabetes.

Circulating levels of carboxy­methyl­lysine (CML) are associated with hip fracture risk: the Cardiovascular Health Study.

Advanced glycation end products (AGE) in bone tissue are associated with impaired biomechanical properties and increased fracture risk. Here we examine whether serum levels of the AGE carboxy­methyl­lysine (CML) are associated with risk of hip fracture.We followed 3373 participants from the Cardiovascular Health Study (age 78 years; range, 68­102 years; 39.8% male) for a median of 9.22 years (range, 0.01­12.07 years). Rates of incident hip fracture were calculated by quartiles of baseline CML levels, and hazard ratios were adjusted for covariates associated with hip fracture risk. A subcohort of 1315 participants had bone mineral density (BMD)measurement. There were 348 hip fractures during follow­up, with incidence rates of hip fracture by CML quartiles of 0.94, 1.34, 1.18, and 1.69 per 100 participant­years. The unadjusted hazard ratio of hip fracture increased with each 1 SD increase (189 ng/mL) of CML level (hazard ratio, 1.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16­1.40]; p<0.001). Sequential adjustment for age, gender, race/ethnicity,body mass index (BMI), smoking, alcohol consumption, prevalent coronary heart disease (CHD), energy expenditure, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (based on cystatin C), moderately attenuated the hazard ratio for fracture (1.17; 95% CI, 1.05­1.31; p=0.006).In the cohort with BMD testing, total hip BMD was not significantly associated with CML levels. We conclude that increasing levels of CML are associated with hip fracture risk in older adults, independent of hip BMD. These results implicate AGE in the pathogenesis of hip fractures.

Advanced glycation/glycoxidation endproduct carboxymethyl-lysine and incidence of coronary heart disease and stroke in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Advanced glycation/glycoxidation endproducts (AGEs) accumulate in settings of increased oxidative stress--such as diabetes, chronic kidney disease and aging--where they promote vascular stiffness and atherogenesis, but the prospective association between AGEs and cardiovascular events in elders has not been previously examined. METHODS: To test the hypothesis that circulating levels of N(ɛ)-carboxymethyl-lysine (CML), a major AGE, increase the risk of incident coronary heart disease and stroke in older adults, we measured serum CML by immunoassay in 2111 individuals free of prevalent cardiovascular disease participating in a population-based study of U.S. adults ages 65 and older. RESULTS: During median follow-up of 9.1 years, 625 cardiovascular events occurred. CML was positively associated with incident cardiovascular events after adjustment for age, sex, race, systolic blood pressure, anti-hypertensive treatment, diabetes, smoking status, triglycerides, albumin, and self-reported health status (hazard ratio [HR] per SD [0.99 pmol/l] increase=1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.03-1.19). This association was not materially attenuated by additional adjustment for C-reactive protein, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and urine albumin/creatinine ratio. Findings were similar for the component endpoints of coronary heart disease and stroke. CONCLUSIONS: In this large older cohort, CML was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events independent of a wide array of potential confounders and mediators. Although the moderate association limits CML's value for risk prediction, these community-based findings provide support for clinical trials to test AGE-lowering therapies for cardiovascular prevention in this population.