Evolving Arctic maritime hazards: Declining sea ice and rising waves in the Northwest Passage.

The ongoing and projected retreat of Arctic sea ice has garnered international interest toward the utilization of Arctic maritime corridors for shipping, tourism, and development. Yet, with potential for increasing traffic in Arctic regions, it's important to consider additional environmental variables affected by climate change which may threaten maritime operations. Here, we use four climate model projections to produce ocean wave simulations and investigate the future magnitude and seasonality of sea ice risk coupled with wave hazards. Analyzing the potential 5 mo shipping season spanning July to November along the Northwest Passage maritime route between 2020 and 2070, our results show a substantial decline in sea ice risk over the analysis time period, resulting in near open-water conditions along the route for a 5 mo period by 2070. However, as seasonal ice coverage retreats, there is a significant upward trend in wave heights along the route during July and November, with the timing of the greatest wave height shifting away from September toward later in the season. This result is pertinent as the possibility of seasonally unprecedented extreme waves coupled with subfreezing late fall temperatures makes for an especially hazardous environment, thus emphasizing the importance of considering the interaction between evolving sea ice and interdependent hazards when predicting the risks and challenges faced by Arctic maritime operations.

Assessing the potential long-term effects of sea-level rise on salt marsh's coastal protective capacity under different climate pathway scenarios.

Salt marshes act as natural barriers that reduce wave energy during storm events and help protect coastal communities located in low-lying areas. This ecosystem can be an important asset for climate adaptation due to its particular capability of vertically accrete to adjust to long-term changes in water levels. Therefore, understanding marsh protection benefits thresholds in the face of sea-level rise (SLR) is important for planning future climate adaptation. In this context, the main goal of this manuscript is to examine how the storm protection benefits provided by salt marshes might evolve under SLR projections with different probability levels and emission pathways. In this study, a modeling framework that employs marsh migration predictions from the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) as parameterization into a hydrodynamic and wave model (ADCIRC + SWAN) was utilized to explicitly represent wave attenuation by vegetation under storm surge conditions. SLAMM predictions indicate that the SLR scenario, a combination of probability level and emission pathways, plays a substantial role in determining future marsh migration or marsh area loss. For example, results based on the 50% probability, stabilized emissions scenario show an increase of 45% in the marsh area on Maryland's Lower Eastern Shore by 2100, whereas Dorchester County alone could experience a 75% reduction in total salt marsh areas by 2100 under the 1% probability, growing emissions scenario. ADCIRC + SWAN results using SLAMM land cover and elevation outputs indicate that distinct temporal thresholds emerge where marsh extent sharply decreases and wave heights increase, especially after 2050, and exacerbates further after 2080. These findings can be utilized for guiding environmental policies and to aid informed decisions and actions in response to SLR-driven environmental changes.

Numerical modeling of wave attenuation: implications of representing vegetation found in coastal saltmarshes in the Chesapeake Bay.

Coastal communities are vulnerable to wave and storm surges during extreme events, highlighting the need to increase community resilience. The effectiveness of natural wetlands in attenuating waves is vital to designing strategies for protecting public safety. This study aimed to understand how vegetation attenuates waves and determine the best method for modeling vegetation's impact on wave dynamics. The researchers compared two different vegetation representations in numerical models, implicit and explicit, using SWAN and XBeach at varying spatial resolutions. The study focused on two marshes in the Chesapeake Bay, using field measurements to investigate the accuracy of each method in representing wave attenuation by vegetation and the implications of explicitly representing average characteristics of one vegetation species on a regional level. Results showed that explicit modeling using average vegetation characteristics provided more accurate results than the implicit model, which only showed wave attenuation due to topography. The finer scale resolution and site-specific vegetation characteristics further improved the accuracy of wave attenuation observed. Understanding the trade-offs between different vegetation representations in numerical models is essential to accurately represent wave attenuation and design effective protection strategies for coastal communities.

Troubles in the paradise: Litter and its scenic impact on the North Santa Catarina island beaches, Brazil.

Eight touristic beaches along the north coast of Santa Catarina Island, Brazil were assessed to determine litter influence on scenic quality. The application of the Coastal Scenic Evaluation System (CSES) categorized these beaches into four of the five available classes. Six of the investigated beaches belong to Class III (n = 3) and V (n = 3), while two beaches correspond to Class II and Class IV. Class I beaches were not found. A total amount of 4291 litter items weighing 29 kg were collected with average abundances of 0.29 items m2. Beach user's habits as well bad management practices along the adjoining river basins play an essential role on litter source, and are directly responsible for the decline of scenic quality of Santa Catarina Island Beaches. In fact, litter has a direct relation with the low scenic scores determined in the surveyed beaches.