RESUMEN
Climate change and changing consumer demand are the main factors driving the protein transition. This shift toward more sustainable protein sources as alternatives to animal proteins is also reflected in the rapid upscaling of meat and dairy food analogues. Such changes could challenge food safety, as new food sources could result in new and unexpected food safety risks for consumers. This review analyzed the current knowledge on chemical and microbiological contamination of emerging alternative protein sources of plant origin, including soil-based (faba bean, mung bean, lentils, black gram, cowpea, quinoa, hemp, and leaf proteins) and aquatic-based (microalgae and duckweeds) proteins. Moreover, findings on commercial analogues from known alternative protein sources were included. Overall, the main focus of the investigations is on the European context. The review aimed to enable foresight approaches to food safety concerning the protein transition. The results indicated the occurrence of multiple chemical and microbiological hazards either in the raw materials that are the protein sources and eventually in the analogues. Moreover, current European legislation on maximum limits does not address most of the "contaminant-food" pairs identified, and no legislative framework has been developed for analogues. Results of this study provide stakeholders with a more comprehensive understanding of the chemical and microbiological safety of alternative protein sources and derived analogues to enable a holistic and safe approach to the protein transition.
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Contaminación de Alimentos , Inocuidad de los Alimentos , Contaminación de Alimentos/prevención & control , Contaminación de Alimentos/análisis , Microbiología de Alimentos , Proteínas de Plantas/química , AnimalesRESUMEN
Foodborne illnesses result in a high disease burden worldwide, making food safety control of food business operations (FBOs) an urgent issue. With public agencies and FBOs facing challenges in monitoring the complex food supply chain with limited resources, scientific and objective insights into those factors that are related to food safety at FBOs are needed. These factors can be used as input for risk-based inspection. We conducted a systematic review to identify and analyze risk factors affecting the FBOs' food safety risk. We used a set of predefined search strings in Scopus and Web of Science to search for scientific manuscripts published in the English language between January 1 2003 and February 1 2023. The review identified 53 relevant studies and 43 risk factors. The presence of certified personnel turned out to be the most cited factor. Nearly half of the extracted factors had only been investigated in one study. Additional challenges were identified for developing a universal ready-to-use list of factors for the building of a risk-based inspection method, such as the limitation in the applicability of identified factors in different types of FBOs, and the variability in conclusions between publications for certain factors (e.g., FBO location and inspection history), stressing the need for additional research. Future studies should also prioritize standardizing definitions and measurements, particularly regarding compliance factors. In general, the current list of factors brought forward in our review lays the groundwork for building a transparent, objective, and risk-based method for food safety inspections of FBOs.
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Inocuidad de los Alimentos , Enfermedades Transmitidas por los Alimentos , Inocuidad de los Alimentos/métodos , Factores de Riesgo , Humanos , Enfermedades Transmitidas por los Alimentos/prevención & control , Inspección de Alimentos/métodos , Inspección de Alimentos/normas , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Contaminación de Alimentos/prevención & controlRESUMEN
Traditionally, meat and dairy products have been important protein sources in the human diet. Consumers are eating more plant-based proteins, which is reflected in current market trends. Assessing how alternative proteins are processed and their impact on food safety helps realize market opportunities while ensuring food safety. In this review, an analysis of the food safety hazards, along with current industry trends and processing methods associated with alternative proteins for meat and dairy products for the European Union market is described. Understanding the effects of processing and safety alternative proteins is paramount to ensuring food safety and understanding the risks to consumers. However, the data here is limited. With the expected further increase in protein alternatives in consumers' diets, the risk of food allergens is apparent. The occurrence of processing contaminants in plant-based alternatives may occur, along with anti-nutritional compounds, which interfere with the absorption of nutrients. Further, typical food safety hazards related to the plant, the product itself, or processing are relevant. Although hazards in insects and seaweed are being addressed, other protein alternatives like cultured meat and SCPs warrant attention. Our findings can aid industry and governmental authorities in understanding current trends and prioritizing hazards for future monitoring.
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Inocuidad de los Alimentos , Carne , Humanos , Carne/análisis , Productos Lácteos , Unión EuropeaRESUMEN
Food production has increasingly become effective but not necessarily sustainable. Transitioning toward circular production systems aiming to minimize waste and reuse materials is one of the means to obtain a more sustainable food production system. However, such a circular food production system can also lead to the accumulation and recirculation of chemical hazards. A literature review was performed to identify potential chemical hazards related to the use of edible and non-edible resources in agriculture and horticulture, and edible plant and animal by-products in feed production. The review revealed that limited information was available on the chemical hazards that could occur when reusing crop residues in circular agriculture. Frequently mentioned hazards present in edible and non-edible resources are heavy metals, process and environmental contaminants, pesticides and pharmaceuticals. For feed, natural toxins and pharmaceutical residues are of potential concern. Studies, furthermore, indicated that plants are capable of taking up chemical hazards when grown on contaminated soil. The presence of chemical hazards in manure, sewage sludge, crop residues, and animal by-products may lead to accumulation in a circular food production system. Therefore, it is relevant to identify these hazards prior to application in food production and, if needed, take precautionary measures to prevent food safety risks.
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Contaminantes del Suelo , Animales , Contaminantes del Suelo/análisis , Agricultura , Aguas del Alcantarillado/química , Inocuidad de los Alimentos , Plantas ComestiblesRESUMEN
This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science and socio-economic sciences. The review used a predefined search protocol, and covered the bibliographic databases Scopus, CAB Abstracts, Web of Sciences, and PubMed over the period 1993-2013. All references deemed relevant, on the basis of predefined evaluation criteria, were included in the review, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered-based on their characteristics-into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years (HALY), multi-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking. The method to be used should be selected on the basis of risk manager/assessor requirements, data availability, and the characteristics of the method. Recommendations for future use and application are provided.
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Inocuidad de los Alimentos , Enfermedades Transmitidas por los Alimentos/epidemiología , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Costo de Enfermedad , Técnicas de Apoyo para la Decisión , Árboles de Decisión , Contaminación de Alimentos , Microbiología de Alimentos , Enfermedades Transmitidas por los Alimentos/microbiología , Humanos , Años de Vida Ajustados por Calidad de Vida , RiesgoRESUMEN
Monitoring of dairy products should preferably focus on the most relevant food safety hazards in the dairy supply chain. For this purpose, the possible presence of microbiological, chemical, and physical hazards as well as trends in the dairy supply chain that may affect their presence were assessed. A literature review was combined with available data from EFSA, RASFF, and the Dutch monitoring program on chemical hazards as well as expert information. This study revealed that microbiological hazards are encountered more frequently in dairy products than chemical and physical hazards. Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, Salmonella, and human pathogenic Escherichia coli were identified as the most important microbiological hazards in dairy products. Soft and semisoft cheeses are most frequently associated with L. monocytogenes and S. aureus enterotoxins, whereas raw milk is most frequently associated with human pathogenic E. coli and Campylobacter spp., Cronobacter spp., and Salmonella spp. are the microbiological hazards of most concern in powdered infant formula. Based on literature, monitoring, and RASFF data, the most relevant chemical hazards in dairy products are aflatoxin M1 , dioxins, and dioxin-like compounds and residues of veterinary drugs. Chemical hazards primarily occur at the dairy farm and may accumulate during further processing. The most relevant physical hazards are metal, glass, and plastic particles introduced during processing. Analysis of trends in the near future revealed that increased milk production is seen as most relevant in relation to food safety. Other trends affecting food safety are climate change and changes at the farm level, which aim to improve animal welfare and environmental sustainability.
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Housing systems for laying hens have changed over the years due to increased public concern regarding animal welfare. In terms of sustainability, animal welfare is just one aspect that needs to be considered. Social aspects as well as environmental and economic factors need to be included as well. In this study, we assessed the sustainability of enriched cage, barn, free-range, and organic egg production systems following a predefined protocol. Indicators were selected within the social, environmental, and economic dimensions, after which parameter values and sustainability limits were set for the core indicators in order to quantify sustainability. Uncertainty in the parameter values as well as assigned weights and compensabilities of the indicators influenced the outcome of the sustainability assessment. Using equal weights for the indicators showed that, for the Dutch situation, enriched cage egg production was most sustainable, having the highest score on the environmental dimension, whereas free-range egg production gave the highest score in the social dimension (covering food safety, animal welfare, and human welfare). In the economic dimension both enriched cage egg and organic egg production had the highest sustainability score. When weights were attributed according to stakeholder outputs, individual differences were seen, but the overall scores were comparable to the sustainability scores based on equal weights. The provided method enabled a quantification of sustainability using input from stakeholders to include societal preferences in the overall assessment. Allowing for different weights and compensabilities helps policymakers in communicating with stakeholders involved and provides a weighted decision regarding future housing systems for laying hens.
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Crianza de Animales Domésticos/normas , Pollos , Huevos , Ambiente , Crianza de Animales Domésticos/economía , Crianza de Animales Domésticos/métodos , Bienestar del Animal , Animales , Femenino , Inocuidad de los Alimentos , Países Bajos , Oviposición/fisiologíaRESUMEN
In order to minimise food waste, side streams from feed and food production are increasingly being (re-) used in food supply chains. Such reuse contributes to the desire to implement circularity in food and agricultural systems. However, the reuse of side products in circular food systems may impact food safety, for instance, contaminant residues present at low levels in biomass may accumulate when reusing streams. In order to assess potential food safety issues related to circular food systems, a framework has been developed in this study. Based on this framework, appropriate actions can be taken to prevent from human health risks. The framework consists of three steps: 1. Describing the changes in the food supply chain as a result of the circularity transition; 2. Identifying potential food safety hazards related to the change; and 3. Prioritising food safety hazards related to the circularity transition. For the prioritisation, both the presence of the hazards in final foods and the effects of the hazards on human health need to be assessed. Persistence of the hazard in the environment and potential transfer from the environment to the final food product are relevant elements to include. The framework was tested in three case studies, showing that it allows for a prioritisation between hazards. Based on the case study results, circularity not so much influences the health effects of the hazards, but rather their presence depending on the persistence and transfer of food safety hazards in a circular system.
RESUMEN
In this study, a methodology was developed that can be used as input for risk-based monitoring plans for chemical contaminants in food products. The novel methodology was applied to a case study in which cereals and fish were evaluated simultaneously for the possible presence of mycotoxins and heavy metals. The methodology was based on hazard quotients that were estimated by dividing the daily intake - using concentrations of the contaminants in the different food products and consumption of the respective products combined per product group - by the health based guidance value (HBGV) or reference points used for assessing potential health concerns (RPHC). The most relevant hazard-product combinations were further ranked based on the volume of import of the ingredients, per import country and a defined contaminant prevalence level per country. For fish, the hazard quotients were around ten times lower compared to the highest hazard quotients in cereals. Consumption of molluscs, mackerel-type fish and herring-type fish contaminated with mercury contributed most to the HBGV or RPHC. The top 25 hazard-product combinations for various age groups included: aflatoxin B1 in combination with wheat, rice (products), maize (products), and pasta, zearalenone in combination with wheat (products), T2/HT2-toxin in combination with rice (products), and DON in combination with wheat (products). The methodology presented showed to be useful in identifying the most relevant hazard-food-age group combinations and the most relevant import countries linked to these that should be included in the monitoring. As such, the method can help risk managers in establishing risk-based monitoring programs.
Asunto(s)
Micotoxinas , Zearalenona , Animales , Grano Comestible/química , Contaminación de Alimentos/análisis , Micotoxinas/análisis , Zearalenona/análisis , TriticumRESUMEN
Based on a data set on Campylobacter and Salmonella prevalence in the broiler supply chain, collected during the period 2002 through 2005 in the Netherlands, farm- and slaughterhouse-specific characteristics were tested for their effect on Campylobacter and Salmonella prevalence at different stages of the broiler supply chain. Three different sampling points were considered: departure from the farm, arrival at the slaughterhouse, and the end of the slaughterline. Strong associations were found between Salmonella and Campylobacter prevalence at a particular sampling point and their prevalence at the preceding point of the chain. Statistical analyses showed that the country of origin of the broiler farm had a significant effect on the prevalence of Salmonella and Campylobacter at slaughterhouse arrival. The feeding company delivering to the farm also showed a significant effect on the occurrence of both pathogens at departure from the broiler farm. The prevalence of Campylobacter decreased with an increasing number of birds per flock, whereas the prevalence of Salmonella increased with an increasing number of birds per flock. The number of flocks processed within a specific slaughterhouse was not associated with an increased or decreased prevalence of Campylobacter and Salmonella. The results provide more insight into factors related to the occurrence of both pathogens and in understanding their epidemiology. The results can be supportive in decision making on measures to reduce the contamination of broiler products with Salmonella and Campylobacter.
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Mataderos/normas , Crianza de Animales Domésticos/métodos , Crianza de Animales Domésticos/normas , Campylobacter/aislamiento & purificación , Carne/microbiología , Salmonella/aislamiento & purificación , Animales , Pollos/microbiología , Microbiología de AlimentosRESUMEN
European food production systems have become very efficient in terms of high yield, quality and safety. However, these production systems are not sustainable since, amongst other reasons, a significant proportion of the production is wasted or lost in the supply chain. One of the strategies of the European Union is to achieve climate neutrality by moving towards a circular economy with better waste management. This includes, reducing food waste and losses, and reusing or recycling by-products of the food and feed production systems. A circular economy would greatly improve the sustainability of the European food systems, but attention must be paid to the emergence of (new) food safety hazards. New or not well-known hazards can occur because by-products are reintroduced into the system or new processing steps are used for recycling, and/or known hazards can accumulate in the food production chain due to the reuse of (by-)products. This review addresses food safety hazards in the circular biobased economy, covering the domains of plant production, animal production, aquaculture, and packaging. Instead of an exhaustive list of all potential hazards, example cases of circular food production systems are given, highlighting the known and potential emerging food safety hazards. Current literature covering emerging food safety hazards in the circular economy shows to be limited. Therefore, more research is needed to identify food safety hazards, to measure the accumulation and the distribution of such hazards in the food and feed production systems, and to develop control and mitigation strategies. We advocate a food safety by design approach.
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Eliminación de Residuos , Administración de Residuos , Animales , Europa (Continente) , Alimentos , Inocuidad de los AlimentosRESUMEN
Perfluorooctane sulphonate (PFOS) is a persistent organic pollutant with adverse effects on human health. Since dietary intake plays an important role in human exposure, the transfer of PFOS throughout the food chain needs further investigation. The aim of this paper is to give an overview of PFOS concentrations and transfer for the various chain steps from farm-to-fork. This reveals that most research focused on levels of PFOS in surface water and fish but data on soil and crops are largely missing. Furthermore, the uptake of PFOS by farm animals and subsequent transfer into meat and animal products needs further attention, as these products will eventually be consumed by the human population. Once the necessary data gaps are filled, the contribution of the various chain steps on the total PFOS intake can be established. Moreover, the effect of pollution events on the food chain can be established enabling appropriate actions in order to protect consumer health.
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Risk-based monitoring programs are increasingly applied for cost-effective monitoring of food safety. Such programs ideally consist of three steps: risk-ranking, risk-based inspections, and cost-effective monitoring. Various methods have been described to perform the first step of risk-based monitoring. However, once the risk-ranking has been completed, identifying the hazard-food combinations to monitor, the frequency of inspection needs to be established based on a prioritization of food business operators (FBOs). The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of methods available for risk-based inspections. Literature shows that FBO's food safety compliance can be assessed based on company size, historical monitoring data, and socio-economic factors influencing compliance behavior. Non-compliance can either be intentional or unintentional. The latter can be assessed by evaluating the food safety culture of a company. Various models-ranging from qualitative (e.g., focus groups) to quantitative (e.g., scoring)-can be used for this purpose. These models usually include an evaluation of the organizational structure (e.g., management control, communication, commitment), the technical food safety environment (e.g., hygienic design, zoning), and employee characteristics (e.g., knowledge, risk awareness). Intentional non-compliance can be assessed using food fraud vulnerability tools. These tools incorporate factors influencing the likelihood of food fraud at the company, that is, opportunity, motivation, and (lack of) control measures. The literature indicates that either self-assessment tools or risk matrices are applied. There is no global consensus on the methods to apply for risk-based inspections. Depending on time and budget available as well as preferred output, one of the presented methods may be applied for prioritizing FBOs.
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Inocuidad de los Alimentos , Alimentos , Grupos Focales , FraudeRESUMEN
A pro-active emerging risk identification system starts with the selection of critical factors related to the occurrence of emerging hazards. This paper describes a method to derive the most important factors in dynamic production chains starting from a gross list of critical factors. The method comprised the semi-quantitative evaluation of the critical factors for a relatively novel product on the Dutch market and a related traditional product. This method was tested in an expert study with three case studies. The use of group discussion followed by individual ranking in an expert study proved to be a powerful tool in identifying the most important factors for each case. Human behaviour (either producers' behaviour or human knowledge) was the most important factor for all three cases. The expert study showed that further generalization of critical factors based on product characteristics may be possible.
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Salmonella serotype distribution can give insight in contamination routes and persistence along a production chain. Therefore, it is important to determine not only Salmonella prevalence but also to specify the serotypes involved at the different stages of the supply chain. For this purpose, data from a national monitoring program in the Netherlands were used to estimate the serotype distribution and to determine whether this distribution differs for the available sampling points in the broiler supply chain. Data covered the period from 2002 to 2005, all slaughterhouses (n = 22), and the following 6 sampling points: departure from hatchery, arrival at the farm, departure from the farm, arrival at the slaughterhouse, departure from the slaughterhouse, and end of processing. Furthermore, retail data for 2005 were used for comparison with slaughterhouse data. The following serotypes were followed throughout the chain: Salmonella Enteritidis, Salmonella Typhimurium, Salmonella Paratyphi B var. Java (Salmonella Java), Salmonella Infantis, Salmonella Virchow, and Salmonella Mbandaka. Results showed that serotype distribution varied significantly throughout the supply chain (P < 0.05). Main differences were found at the farm and at the slaughterhouse (within one stage), and least differences were found between departure from one stage and arrival at the next stage. The most prominent result was the increase of Salmonella Java at farm level. This serotype remained the most prominent pathogen throughout the broiler supply chain up to the retail phase.
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Pollos , Salmonelosis Animal/microbiología , Salmonella/clasificación , Mataderos , Animales , Países Bajos/epidemiología , Salmonelosis Animal/epidemiología , SerotipificaciónRESUMEN
The aim of the present study was to demonstrate how Performance Objectives (POs) for Salmonella at various points in the broiler supply chain can be estimated, starting from pre-set levels of the PO in finished products. The estimations were performed using an analytical transmission model, based on prevalence data collected throughout the chain in The Netherlands. In the baseline (current) situation, the end PO was set at 2.5% of the finished products (at end of processing) being contaminated with Salmonella. Scenario analyses were performed by reducing this baseline end PO to 1.5% and 0.5%. The results showed the end PO could be reduced by spreading the POs over the various stages of the broiler supply chain. Sensitivity analyses were performed by changing the values of the model parameters. Results indicated that, in general, decreasing Salmonella contamination between points in the chain is more effective in reducing the baseline PO than increasing the reduction of the pathogen, implying contamination should be prevented rather than treated. Application of both approaches at the same time showed to be most effective in reducing the end PO, especially at the abattoir and during processing. The modelling approach of this study proved to be useful to estimate the implications for preceding stages of the chain by setting a PO at the end of the chain as well as to evaluate the effectiveness of potential interventions in reducing the end PO. The model estimations may support policy-makers in their decision-making process with regard to microbiological food safety.
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Pollos/microbiología , Contaminación de Alimentos/análisis , Industria de Procesamiento de Alimentos/normas , Carne/microbiología , Modelos Biológicos , Intoxicación Alimentaria por Salmonella/epidemiología , Salmonella/crecimiento & desarrollo , Mataderos/normas , Animales , Recuento de Colonia Microbiana , Seguridad de Productos para el Consumidor , Manipulación de Alimentos/métodos , Manipulación de Alimentos/normas , Humanos , Valor Predictivo de las Pruebas , Prevalencia , Salmonella/aislamiento & purificación , Intoxicación Alimentaria por Salmonella/etiología , Intoxicación Alimentaria por Salmonella/prevención & control , Salmonelosis Animal/epidemiología , Salmonelosis Animal/transmisión , Procesos Estocásticos , ZoonosisRESUMEN
AIMS: To quantify cross-contamination in the home from chicken to ready-to-eat salad. METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on laboratory scenarios performed by de Jong et al. (2008), transfer rates were estimated for Campylobacter jejuni and Lactobacillus casei as a tracer organism. This study showed that transfer characteristics for both micro-organisms were comparable when washing regimes and transfer via items (cutting board, hands and knives) were compared. Furthermore, the study showed that the use of separate transfer rates for transfer from chicken to items and from items to salad will lead to an overestimation of campylobacteriosis risk. Applying good hygienic practices resulted in final levels of bacteria in the salad below the detection limit. Our study showed that it is important to include these data points in model fitting. CONCLUSIONS: Results obtained in observational studies with Lact. casei can be translated to Camp. jejuni using the transfer rates obtained in this study. Cross-contamination by hands, cutting boards and knives was equally important. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: Cross-contamination should be incorporated in microbiological risk assessments. The present study contributes to this by quantifying transfer of Camp. jejuni and Lact. casei from raw chicken via various contact surfaces into the ready-to-eat product.
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Campylobacter jejuni/aislamiento & purificación , Contaminación de Equipos , Contaminación de Alimentos/análisis , Verduras/microbiología , Animales , Pollos , Recuento de Colonia Microbiana , Utensilios de Comida y Culinaria , Contaminación de Alimentos/prevención & control , Manipulación de Alimentos/métodos , Modelos TeóricosRESUMEN
This article presents detailed information on Salmonella prevalence throughout the broiler supply chain in The Netherlands, based on results from a national monitoring program. Data were collected during the period 2002 through 2005 and from six sampling points in the chain, covering hatchery up to and including processing. Trends in Salmonella prevalence over years and seasons were analyzed as well as the effect of slaughterhouse capacity on these trends. In addition, correlations between the occurrence of Salmonella at the various sampling points were calculated. The results showed a decreasing trend of Salmonella prevalence from 2002 through 2005 at all sampling points. A seasonal effect on the occurrence of Salmonella was found at the broiler farm, with a higher prevalence during the third and fourth quarter of the year (July through December). The higher the capacity of the slaughterhouse, the lower Salmonella prevalence on arrival at the slaughterhouse and the higher the prevalence at the end of slaughter and the end of processing. The detailed insights obtained in this study could be used to focus future field and experimental research on the prevention and control of Salmonella in the broiler supply chain. Results presented could also be used in risk assessment studies.
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Mataderos , Pollos/microbiología , Contaminación de Alimentos/prevención & control , Industria de Procesamiento de Alimentos/normas , Carne/microbiología , Salmonella/aislamiento & purificación , Mataderos/normas , Animales , Recuento de Colonia Microbiana , Manipulación de Alimentos/métodos , Microbiología de Alimentos , Higiene , Países Bajos/epidemiología , Prevalencia , Medición de Riesgo , Estaciones del Año , Vigilancia de Guardia/veterinariaRESUMEN
After a national control program, data on Campylobacter prevalence in the broiler supply chain in the Netherlands were gathered for 3 sampling points: departure of broiler farm and arrival and departure of the slaughterhouse. Monitoring data from this control program for 2002 to 2005 were analyzed to find correlations and possible trends in the data. As expected, the greatest correlations were found between adjacent sampling points. A high correlation was expected between number of animals slaughtered and Campylobacter prevalence, because it is assumed that larger companies will have greater hygiene standards due to better implication of food safety regulations. However, statistical analysis showed that there was no clear correlation between company size and Campylobacter prevalence. Data analysis further identified an increasing trend in Campylobacter prevalence at departure of slaughterhouse from 2002 to 2005 with strong seasonality at all 3 sampling points. Measures to control Campylobacter, therefore, need to be reconsidered and possibly intensified to achieve a reduction in Campylobacter positives.
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Infecciones por Campylobacter/epidemiología , Campylobacter/aislamiento & purificación , Abastecimiento de Alimentos/normas , Enfermedades de las Aves de Corral/microbiología , Animales , Infecciones por Campylobacter/prevención & control , Infecciones por Campylobacter/transmisión , Infecciones por Campylobacter/veterinaria , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Unión Europea , Humanos , Incidencia , Países Bajos/epidemiología , Aves de Corral , Enfermedades de las Aves de Corral/prevención & control , Enfermedades de las Aves de Corral/transmisión , Zoonosis/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
The risk assessment study of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat foods conducted by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is an example of an extensive quantitative microbiological risk assessment that could be used by risk analysts and other scientists to obtain information and by managers and stakeholders to make decisions on food safety management. The present study was conducted to investigate how detailed sensitivity analysis can be used by assessors to extract more information on risk factors and how results can be communicated to managers and stakeholders in an understandable way. The extended sensitivity analysis revealed that the extremes at the right side of the dose distribution (at consumption, 9 to 11.5 log CFU per serving) were responsible for most of the cases of listeriosis simulated. For concentration at retail, values below the detection limit of 0.04 CFU/g and the often used limit for L. monocytogenes of 100 CFU/g (also at retail) were associated with a high number of annual cases of listeriosis (about 29 and 82%, respectively). This association can be explained by growth of L. monocytogenes at both average and extreme values of temperature and time, indicating that a wide distribution can lead to high risk levels. Another finding is the importance of the maximal population density (i.e., the maximum concentration of L. monocytogenes assumed at a certain temperature) for accurately estimating the risk of infection by opportunistic pathogens such as L. monocytogenes. According to the obtained results, mainly concentrations corresponding to the highest maximal population densities caused risk in the simulation. However, sensitivity analysis applied to the uncertainty parameters revealed that prevalence at retail was the most important source of uncertainty in the model.