Machine Learning of Laboratory Data in Predicting 30-Day Mortality for Adult Hemophagocytic Lymphohistiocytosis.

BACKGROUND: Hemophagocytic Lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) carries a high mortality rate. Current existing risk-evaluation methodologies fall short and improved predictive methods are needed. This study aimed to forecast 30-day mortality in adult HLH patients using 11 distinct machine learning (ML) algorithms. METHODS: A retrospective analysis on 431 adult HLH patients from January 2015 to September 2021 was conducted. Feature selection was executed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. We employed 11 ML algorithms to create prediction models. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, F1 score, calibration curve and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate these models. We assessed feature importance using the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) approach. RESULTS: Seven independent predictors emerged as the most valuable features. An AUC between 0.65 and 1.00 was noted among the eleven ML algorithms. The gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) algorithms demonstrated the most optimal performance (1.00 in the training cohort and 0.80 in the validation cohort). By employing the SHAP method, we identified the variables that contributed to the model and their correlation with 30-day mortality. The AUC of the GBDT algorithms was the highest when using the top 4 (ferritin, UREA, age and thrombin time (TT)) features, reaching 0.99 in the training cohort and 0.83 in the validation cohort. Additionally, we developed a web-based calculator to estimate the risk of 30-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: With GBDT algorithms applied to laboratory data, accurate prediction of 30-day mortality is achievable. Integrating these algorithms into clinical practice could potentially improve 30-day outcomes.

Adult acute leukemia patients with gram-negative bacteria bloodstream infection: Risk factors and outcomes of antibiotic-resistant bacteria.

This study aims to analyze the risk factors for the development of multidrug-resistant (MDR) and carbapenem-resistant (CR) bacteria bloodstream infection (BSI) in a patient with acute leukemia (AL) and the mortality in gram-negative bacteria (GNB) BSI. This is a retrospective study conducted at West China Hospital of Sichuan University, which included patients diagnosed with AL and concomitant GNB BSI from 2016 to 2021. A total of 206 patients with GNB BSI in AL were included. The 30-day mortality rate for all patients was 26.2%, with rates of 25.8% for those with MDR GNB BSI and 59.1% for those with CR GNB BSI. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that exposure to quinolones (Odds ratio (OR) = 3.111, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.623-5.964, p = 0.001) within the preceding 30 days was an independent risk factor for MDR GNB BSI, while placement of urinary catheter (OR = 6.311, 95%CI: 2.478-16.073, p < 0.001) and exposure to cephalosporins (OR = 2.340, 95%CI: 1.090-5.025, p = 0.029) and carbapenems (OR = 2.558, 95%CI: 1.190-5.497, p = 0.016) within the preceding 30 days were independently associated with CR GNB BSI. Additionally, CR GNB BSI (OR = 2.960, 95% CI: 1.016-8.624, p = 0.047), relapsed/refractory AL (OR = 3.035, 95% CI: 1.265-7.354, p = 0.013), septic shock (OR = 5.108, 95% CI: 1.794-14.547, p = 0.002), platelets < 30 × 109/L before BSI (OR = 7.785, 95% CI: 2.055-29.492, p = 0.003), and inappropriate empiric antibiotic therapy (OR = 3.140, 95% CI: 1.171-8.417, p = 0.023) were independent risk factors for 30-day mortality in AL patients with GNB BSI. Prior antibiotic exposure was a significant factor in the occurrence of MDR GNB BSI and CR GNB BSI. CR GNB BSI increased the risk of mortality in AL patients with GNB BSI.

Association between estimated pulse wave velocity and the risk of mortality in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage: a retrospective cohort study based on the MIMIC database.

BACKGROUND: The estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV) is a recently developed, simple and useful tool to measure arterial stiffness and to predict long-term cardiovascular mortality. However, the association of ePWV with mortality risk in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is unclear. Herein, this study aims to assess the potential prediction value of ePWV on short- and long-term mortality of SAH patients. METHODS: Data of adult patients with no traumatic SAH were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) III and IV database in this retrospective cohort study. Weighted univariate and multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to explore the associations of ePWV levels with 30-day mortality and 1-year mortality in SAH patients. The evaluation indexes were hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In addition, subgroup analyses of age, the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, surgery, atrial fibrillation (AF), renal failure (RF), hepatic diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), sepsis, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus (DM) were also performed. RESULTS: Among 1,481 eligible patients, 339 died within 30 days and 435 died within 1 year. After adjusting for covariates, ePWV ≥ 12.10 was associated with higher risk of both 30-day mortality (HR = 1.77, 95%CI: 1.17-2.67) and 1-year mortality (HR = 1.97, 95%CI: 1.36-2.85), compared to ePWV < 10.12. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves showed that compared to single SOFA score, ePWV combined with SOFA score had a relative superior predictive performance on both 30-day mortality and 1-year mortality, with the area under the curves (AUCs) of 0.740 vs. 0.664 and 0.754 vs. 0.658. This positive relationship between ePWV and mortality risk was also found in age ≥ 65 years old, SOFA score < 2, non-surgery, non-hepatic diseases, non-COPD, non-hypertension, non-DM, and sepsis subgroups. CONCLUSION: Baseline ePWV level may have potential prediction value on short- and long-term mortality in SAH patients. However, the application of ePWV in SAH prognosis needs further clarification.

Dexamethasone versus methylprednisolone for multiple organ dysfunction in COVID-19 critically ill patients: a multicenter propensity score matching study.

BACKGROUND: Dexamethasone usually recommended for patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to reduce short-term mortality. However, it is uncertain if another corticosteroid, such as methylprednisolone, may be utilized to obtain better clinical outcome. This study assessed dexamethasone's clinical and safety outcomes compared to methylprednisolone. METHODS: A multicenter, retrospective cohort study was conducted between March 01, 2020, and July 31, 2021. It included adult COVID-19 patients who were initiated on either dexamethasone or methylprednisolone therapy within 24 h of intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The primary outcome was the progression of multiple organ dysfunction score (MODS) on day three of ICU admission. Propensity score (PS) matching was used (1:3 ratio) based on the patient's age and MODS within 24 h of ICU admission. RESULTS: After Propensity Score (PS) matching, 264 patients were included; 198 received dexamethasone, while 66 patients received methylprednisolone within 24 h of ICU admission. In regression analysis, patients who received methylprednisolone had a higher MODS on day three of ICU admission than those who received dexamethasone (beta coefficient: 0.17 (95% CI 0.02, 0.32), P = 0.03). Moreover, hospital-acquired infection was higher in the methylprednisolone group (OR 2.17, 95% CI 1.01, 4.66; p = 0.04). On the other hand, the 30-day and the in-hospital mortality were not statistically significant different between the two groups. CONCLUSION: Dexamethasone showed a lower MODS on day three of ICU admission compared to methylprednisolone, with no statistically significant difference in mortality.

Importance of hospital and clinical factors for early mortality in Takotsubo syndrome: Insights from the Swedish Coronary Angiography and Angioplasty Registry.

BACKGROUND: Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) is an acute heart failure syndrome with symptoms similar to acute myocardial infarction. TTS is often triggered by acute emotional or physical stress and is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. Predictors of mortality in patients with TS are not well understood, and there is a need to identify high-risk patients and tailor treatment accordingly. This study aimed to assess the importance of various clinical factors in predicting 30-day mortality in TTS patients using a machine learning algorithm. METHODS: We analyzed data from the nationwide Swedish Coronary Angiography and Angioplasty Registry (SCAAR) for all patients with TTS in Sweden between 2015 and 2022. Gradient boosting was used to assess the relative importance of variables in predicting 30-day mortality in TTS patients. RESULTS: Of 3,180 patients hospitalized with TTS, 76.0% were women. The median age was 71.0 years (interquartile range 62-77). The crude all-cause mortality rate was 3.2% at 30 days. Machine learning algorithms by gradient boosting identified treating hospitals as the most important predictor of 30-day mortality. This factor was followed in significance by the clinical indication for angiography, creatinine level, Killip class, and age. Other less important factors included weight, height, and certain medical conditions such as hyperlipidemia and smoking status. CONCLUSIONS: Using machine learning with gradient boosting, we analyzed all Swedish patients diagnosed with TTS over seven years and found that the treating hospital was the most significant predictor of 30-day mortality.

Investigation of antimicrobial susceptibility patterns, risk factors and their impact on mortality in cancer patients at a tertiary care cancer hospital- A prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Cancer patients are vulnerable to infections due to immunosuppression caused by cancer itself and its treatment. The emergence of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria further complicates the treatment of infections and increases the mortality and hospital stays. This study aimed to investigate the microbial spectrum, antimicrobial resistance patterns, risk factors, and their impact on clinical outcomes in these patients. METHODS: A prospective study was conducted at a tertiary care cancer hospital in Patna, Bihar, India, which included cancer patients aged 18 years and older with positive microbial cultures. RESULTS: This study analysed 440 patients, 53% (234) of whom were females, with an average age of 49.27 (± 14.73) years. A total of 541 isolates were identified, among which 48.01% (242) were multidrug resistant (MDR), 29.76% (150) were extensively drug resistant (XDR), and 19.84% (112) were sensitive. This study revealed that patients who underwent surgery, chemotherapy, were hospitalized, had a history of antibiotic exposure, and had severe neutropenia were more susceptible to MDR and XDR infections. The average hospital stays were 16.90 (± 10.23), 18.30 (± 11.14), and 22.83 (± 13.22) days for patients with sensitive, MDR, and XDR infections, respectively. The study also revealed overall 30-day mortality rate of 31.81% (140), whereas the MDR and XDR group exhibited 38.92% and 50.29% rates of 30-day mortality respectively (P < 0.001). Possible risk factors identified that could lead to mortality, were cancer recurrence, sepsis, chemotherapy, indwelling invasive devices such as foley catheter, Central venous catheter and ryles tube, MASCC score (< 21) and pneumonia. CONCLUSIONS: This study emphasizes the necessity for personalized interventions among cancer patients, such as identifying patients at risk of infection, judicious antibiotic use, infection control measures, and the implementation of antimicrobial stewardship programs to reduce the rate of antimicrobial-resistant infection and associated mortality and hospital length of stay.

Comparative prospective cohort study of efficacy and safety according to dosage and administration of ceftriaxone for community-acquired pneumonia.

INTRODUCTION: Limited prospective evidence has been accumulated regarding the efficacy and safety of ceftriaxone (CTRX) based on differences in dosage and administration of the drug as empiric therapy for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). This study aimed to compare initial treatment failure, 30-day mortality, and side effects between two groups of hospitalized adult CAP patients: one receiving intravenous CTRX at 1g twice daily (1gq12hr) and the other receiving 2g once daily (2gq24hr). METHODS: We prospectively included patients with CAP admitted to our hospital between October 2010 and December 2018. We analyzed patients initially treated solely with CTRX as either 1gq12hr or 2gq24hr. The primary outcome was initial treatment failure, while secondary outcomes were 30-day mortality and side effects. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) analysis was used to minimize biases. RESULTS: Among the 457 CAP patients, 186 patients were in the 1gq12hr group and 271 patients were in the 2gq24hr group. After IPTW analysis, no significant differences in initial treatment failure rate (2.43 % vs 4.46 %, p = 0.27) or 30-day mortality rate (2.95 % vs 6.43 %, p = 0.13) were seen between groups. A small but noteworthy tendency was noted in the frequency of side effects between the two groups (1.04 % vs 4.20 %, p = 0.08) following IPTW analysis, even though the difference was not significant. CONCLUSIONS: This study did not find any significant difference between ceftriaxone 1gq12hr and 2gq24hr regarding efficacy or safety in adult patients with CAP. However, CTRX 1gq12hr may represent a safer option in terms of side effects.

Association between multimorbidity and postoperative mortality in patients undergoing major surgery: a prospective study in 29 countries across Europe.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity poses a global challenge to healthcare delivery. This study aimed to describe the prevalence of multimorbidity, common disease combinations and outcomes in a contemporary cohort of patients undergoing major abdominal surgery. METHODS: This was a pre-planned analysis of a prospective, multicentre, international study investigating cardiovascular complications after major abdominal surgery conducted in 446 hospitals in 29 countries across Europe. The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative mortality. The secondary outcome measure was the incidence of complications within 30 days of surgery. RESULTS: Of 24,227 patients, 7006 (28.9%) had one long-term condition and 10,486 (43.9%) had multimorbidity (two or more long-term health conditions). The most common conditions were primary cancer (39.6%); hypertension (37.9%); chronic kidney disease (17.4%); and diabetes (15.4%). Patients with multimorbidity had a higher incidence of frailty compared with patients ≤ 1 long-term health condition. Mortality was higher in patients with one long-term health condition (adjusted odds ratio 1.93 (95%CI 1.16-3.23)) and multimorbidity (adjusted odds ratio 2.22 (95%CI 1.35-3.64)). Frailty and ASA physical status 3-5 mediated an estimated 31.7% of the 30-day mortality in patients with one long-term health condition (adjusted odds ratio 1.30 (95%CI 1.12-1.51)) and an estimated 36.9% of the 30-day mortality in patients with multimorbidity (adjusted odds ratio 1.61 (95%CI 1.36-1.91)). There was no improvement in 30-day mortality in patients with multimorbidity who received pre-operative medical assessment. CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbidity is common and outcomes are poor among surgical patients across Europe. Addressing multimorbidity in elective and emergency patients requires innovative strategies to account for frailty and disease control. The development of such strategies, that integrate care targeting whole surgical pathways to strengthen current systems, is urgently needed for multimorbid patients. Interventional trials are warranted to determine the effectiveness of targeted management for surgical patients with multimorbidity.

Brain natriuretic peptide as a predictor of 30-day mortality after return of spontaneous circulation in cardiac arrest patients.

PURPOSE: To determine the predictive value of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels for 30-day mortality after return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) in patients with cardiac arrest (CA) of presumed cardiac etiology. METHODS: This retrospective study included 260 patients with CA of presumed cardiac etiology who regained ROSC and was conducted between November 2013 and June 2022 at two tertiary comprehensive hospitals. Cox regression and nomogram models were used to demonstrate the value of BNP level in predicting 30-day mortality rates. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to compare the ability of the two models to predict 30-day mortality risk. RESULTS: BNP level was a predictive factor for 30-day mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.441; 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 1.198-1.734). The area under curves (AUCs) of BNP level alone and model 2 (male sex, age, non-shockable rhythm, epinephrine, and time to ROSC >30 min) for predicting 30-day mortality were similar(0.813 versus 0.834). Model 1 that included the variables in model 2 and BNP level showed good predictive value (area under curve = 0.887; 95 % CI = 0.836-0.939). Compared to Model 2, Model 1 showed improved comprehensive differentiation and net weight classification of mortality prediction, further demonstrating the predictive value of BNP for 30-day mortality (NRI = 0.451, 95 % CI = 0.267-0.577; IDI = 0.109, 95 % CI = 0.035-0.191). CONCLUSION: BNP level was a predictive factor for 30-day mortality after ROSC in patients with CA of presumed cardiac etiology who regained ROSC. The nomogram model included BNP may provide a reference for predicting 30-day mortality.

Right Ventricular Function Following Sternotomy Versus a Less-Invasive Approach for Left Ventricular Assist Device Implant: Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: Durable left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation is traditionally performed via median sternotomy (MS). Less-invasive implantation may lower the incidence of postimplant right ventricular failure (RVF). Our primary objective was to determine whether less-invasive implantation reduces the odds of severe RVF compared to MS. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: St. Paul's Hospital, Vancouver, BC, Canada. PARTICIPANTS: One hundred ninety-eight adult patients between January 2008 and August 2021. INTERVENTIONS: Isolated LVAD implantation either via median sternotomy or via a less-invasive surgical approach. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust for confounders. A sensitivity analysis using inverse probability of treatment weighting analysis based on propensity scores was conducted. One hundred seventy-two patients were analyzed; 54% (94/172) underwent LVAD implantation via MS, and 45% (78/172) via less-invasive approaches. Age, sex, and comorbidities were comparable, but the MS group tended to be more critically ill prior to surgery. After adjusting for confounders, less-invasive approaches did not show significant protection against severe postimplant RVF compared to MS (adjusted odds ratio 0.53; 95% confidence interval 0.20-1.44; p = 0.21). However, patients undergoing less-invasive techniques had reduced adjusted odds of 30-day mortality (odds ratio 0.29; 95% confidence interval 0.09-0.99); p = 0.049). There was no observed benefit of less-invasive approaches over MS for major bleeding, prevention of blood product transfusion, and listing for transplantation. CONCLUSIONS: There was no reduction in the odds of severe RVF following LVAD implantation using less-invasive approaches versus MS. However, we found improved odds of 30-day survival in the less-invasive group. The underlying mechanism requires further investigation.

Machine learning-based prognostic model for 30-day mortality prediction in Sepsis-3.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis poses a critical threat to hospitalized patients, particularly those in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Rapid identification of Sepsis is crucial for improving survival rates. Machine learning techniques offer advantages over traditional methods for predicting outcomes. This study aimed to develop a prognostic model using a Stacking-based Meta-Classifier to predict 30-day mortality risks in Sepsis-3 patients from the MIMIC-III database. METHODS: A cohort of 4,240 Sepsis-3 patients was analyzed, with 783 experiencing 30-day mortality and 3,457 surviving. Fifteen biomarkers were selected using feature ranking methods, including Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest, and Extra Tree, and the Logistic Regression (LR) model was used to assess their individual predictability with a fivefold cross-validation approach for the validation of the prediction. The dataset was balanced using the SMOTE-TOMEK LINK technique, and a stacking-based meta-classifier was used for 30-day mortality prediction. The SHapley Additive explanations analysis was performed to explain the model's prediction. RESULTS: Using the LR classifier, the model achieved an area under the curve or AUC score of 0.99. A nomogram provided clinical insights into the biomarkers' significance. The stacked meta-learner, LR classifier exhibited the best performance with 95.52% accuracy, 95.79% precision, 95.52% recall, 93.65% specificity, and a 95.60% F1-score. CONCLUSIONS: In conjunction with the nomogram, the proposed stacking classifier model effectively predicted 30-day mortality in Sepsis patients. This approach holds promise for early intervention and improved outcomes in treating Sepsis cases.

Preoperative Variables of 30-Day Mortality in Adults Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Risk adjustment following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is vital for clinical quality registries, performance monitoring, and clinical decision-making. There remains significant variation in the accuracy and nature of risk adjustment models utilised in international PCI registries/databases. Therefore, the current systematic review aims to summarise preoperative variables associated with 30-day mortality among patients undergoing PCI, and the other methodologies used in risk adjustments. METHOD: The MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and Web of Science databases until October 2022 without any language restriction were systematically searched to identify preoperative independent variables related to 30-day mortality following PCI. Information was systematically summarised in a descriptive manner following the Checklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies checklist. The quality and risk of bias of all included articles were assessed using the Prediction Model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool. Two independent investigators took part in screening and quality assessment. RESULTS: The search yielded 2,941 studies, of which 42 articles were included in the final assessment. Logistic regression, Cox-proportional hazard model, and machine learning were utilised by 27 (64.3%), 14 (33.3%), and one (2.4%) article, respectively. A total of 74 independent preoperative variables were identified that were significantly associated with 30-day mortality following PCI. Variables that repeatedly used in various models were, but not limited to, age (n=36, 85.7%), renal disease (n=29, 69.0%), diabetes mellitus (n=17, 40.5%), cardiogenic shock (n=14, 33.3%), gender (n=14, 33.3%), ejection fraction (n=13, 30.9%), acute coronary syndrome (n=12, 28.6%), and heart failure (n=10, 23.8%). Nine (9; 21.4%) studies used missing values imputation, and 15 (35.7%) articles reported the model's performance (discrimination) with values ranging from 0.501 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.472-0.530) to 0.928 (95% CI 0.900-0.956), and four studies (9.5%) validated the model on external/out-of-sample data. CONCLUSIONS: Risk adjustment models need further improvement in their quality through the inclusion of a parsimonious set of clinically relevant variables, appropriately handling missing values and model validation, and utilising machine learning methods.

Influence of the work environment of nurses on the 30-day mortality of patients hospitalized in Polish hospitals. cross-sectional studies.

BACKGROUND: An optimal work environment for nurses is characterized primarily by appropriate staffing, good team relations, and support from the management staff. These factors are consistently associated with a positive assessment of patient safety by a hospital's employees and a reduction in hospital mortality rates. AIM: To understand the relationships between the work environment as perceived by nurses on the 30-day mortality of patients treated in Polish hospitals. BACKGROUND: An optimal work environment for nurses is characterized primarily by appropriate staffing, good team relations, and support from the management staff. These factors are consistently associated with a positive assessment of patient safety by a hospital's employees and a reduction in hospital mortality rates. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The analysis used discharge data from 108,284 patients hospitalized in internal medicine and surgery departments in 21 hospitals (with 24/7 operations) in Poland. Administrative data included coded data to estimate 30-day mortality. A Nurses' satisfaction questionnaire, including the PES-NWI scale and the SAQ questionnaire, was used to assess the work environment of nurses (n = 1,929). Correlations between variables were assessed using the Pearson coefficient. The analysis used a Poisson regression model, which belongs to the class of generalized linear models. RESULTS: A lower 30-day mortality rate amongst patients was found among those treated in hospitals where the personnel feel that they may question the decisions or actions of their superiors regarding the care provided (r = - 0.50); nurses are informed about changes introduced on the basis of reports about negligence and mistakes (r = - 0.50); the ward nurse is a good manager (r = - 0.41); nurses receive timely information from the head of the department that may have an impact on their work (r = - 0.41). CONCLUSIONS: Factors related to care during hospital stay such as the organization of care at the ward level, analysis of care errors, the number of staff providing direct patient care, informing nurses about mistakes without punishment, and the possibility of nurses challenging the decisions or actions of superiors, which concerns care providing, affect the 30-day mortality of patients after the end of hospitalization in Polish hospitals.

Association between albumin corrected anion gap and mortality in septic older adults.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate the association between albumin corrected anion gap (ACAG) and 30-day mortality in septic older adults. METHODS: In this study, multivariate Cox regression models and Kaplan-Meier analysis were employed to evaluate the correlation between ACAG and 30-day mortality in septic older adults. RESULTS: After adjustment for potential confounders, each 1 mmol/L increase in ACAG was associated with a 6% increase in 30-day mortality (HR, 1.06 [1.03-1.08], P < 0.001). Higher levels of ACAG in septic older adults were associated with lower 30-day survival rates based on Kaplan-Meier analysis. CONCLUSIONS: This study observed a significant correlation between higher ACAG and 30-day mortality in septic older adults, thus indicating the need for increased attention from clinicians for patients with higher ACAG levels.

[Perioperative stroke after aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis - incidence, risk factors and short-term outcome].

INTRODUCTION: One of the most serious complications of surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) is stroke that can result in increased rates of complications, morbidity and mortality postoperatively. The aim of this study was to investigate incidence, risk factors and short-term outcome in a well defined cohort of SAVR-patients. MATERIALS AND METHOD: A retrospective study on 740 consecutive aortic stenosis patients who underwent SAVR in Iceland 2002-2019. Patients with stroke were compared with non-stroke patients; including preoperative risk factors of cardiovascular disease, echocardiogram-results, rate of early postoperative complications other than stroke and 30 day mortality. RESULTS: Mean age was 71 yrs (34% females) with 57% of the patients receiving stented bioprosthesis, 31% a stentless Freestyle®-valve and 12% a mechanical valve. Mean EuroSCORE-II was 3.6, with a maximum preop-gradient of 70 mmHg and an estimated valvular area of 0.73 cm2. Thirteen (1.8%) patients were diagnosed with stroke where hemiplegia (n=9), loss of consciousness (n=3) and/or aphasia (n=4) were the most common presenting symptoms. In 70% of cases the neurological symptoms resolved or disappeared in the first weeks and months after surgery. Only one patient out of 13 died within 30-days (7.7%). Stroke-patients had significantly lower BMI than non-stroke patients, but other risk factors of cardiovascular diseases, intraoperative factors or the rate of other severe postoperative complications than stroke were similar between groups. Total length of stay was 14 days vs. 10 days median, including 2 vs. 1 days in the ICU, in the stroke and non-stroke-groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of stroke after SAVR was low (1.8%) and in line with other similar studies. Although a severe complication, most patients with perioperative stroke survived 30 days postoperatively and in majority of cases neurological symptoms recovered.

[Incidence and outcomes of perioperative myocardial infarction associated with coronary artery bypass surgery].

INTRODUCTION: Perioperative myocardial infarction (PMI) after CABG can contribute to in-hospital morbidity and mortality, however, its clinical significance on long-term outcome, remains inadequately addressed. We studied both 30-day mortality and long-term effects of PMI in Icelandic CABG-patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective nationwide-study on 1446 consecutive CABG-patients operated at Landspitali in Iceland 2002-2018 without evidence of preoperative myocardial infarction. PMI was defined as a tenfold elevetion in serum-CK-MB associated with new ECG changes or diagnostic imaging consistent with ischemia. Patients with PMI were compared to a reference group with uni- and multivariate analyses. Long-term and MACCE-free survival were estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method and logistic regression used to determine factors associated with PMI. The mean follow-up time was 8.3 years. RESULTS: Out of 1446 patients 78 (5.4%) were diagnosed with PMI (range: 0-15.5%) with a significant annual decline in the incidence of PMI (12.7%, p<0.001). Over the same period preoperative aspirin use increased by 22.3% (p<0.018). PMI patients had a higher rate of short-term complications and a 11.5% 30-day mortality rate compared to 0.4% for non-PMI patients. PMI was found to be a predictor of 30-day mortality (OR 15.44, 95% CI: 6.89-34.67). PMI patients had worse 5-year MACCE-free survival (69.2% vs. 84.7, p=0,01), although overall survival was comparable between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: Although PMI after CABG is associated with significantly higher rates of short-term complications and 30-day mortality, long-term survival was similar to the reference group. Therefore, the mortality risk attributable to PMI appears to diminish after the immediate postoperative period.

[New-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation following coronary artery bypass grafting: Incidence, clinical course and short-term outcomes].

INTRODUCTION: The aims of this retrospective study were to investigate the incidence, clinical course and short term outcomes of new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) following coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A nation-wide study on 1622 patients who underwent CABG from 2006-2020 at Landspitali University Hospital. Clinical data were extracted from registries and 121 patients with pre-existing AF excluded, leaving 1501 patients for further analysis. Patient charts and postoperative ECGs were manually reviewed for determining details of POAF, which was defined as a postoperative episode of AF before discharge lasting at least 5 minutes. Patients with POAF (n=483) were compared to non-POAF patients (n=1018). RESULTS: Altogether 483 (32.2%) patients developed POAF; the annual incidence decreasing over time (tau= -0,45, p=0.023). Most patients were diagnosed on the second day postoperatively (43.5%) and over 90% were diagnosed within 4 days. The median number of POAF episodes was 3 (IQR: 1-5), the first episode lasting 1-6 hours in half of the cases and the total POAF-duration being 12 hours median (IQR: 5-30). Over 94% of cases converted to sinus rythm before discharge, with 25 (5.3%) patients being discharged in AF. Most patients were treated with beta-blockers (98.8%), amiodarone (95%) and 14.9% with electric cardioversion. POAF-patients were older, had higher EuroSCORE II and a longer hospital stay, however, they had similar rates of early postoperative stroke and 30 day mortality. CONCLUSION: The incidence of POAF remains high and was associated with prolonged hospital stay, but not significantly higher 30 day mortality or early postoperative stroke compared to patients in sinus rhythm. POAF-episodes were predominantly transient and almost 95% of patients were discharged in sinus rythm.

A multi-institutional study of short-term mortality in COVID-positive patients undergoing hip fracture surgery: is survival better than expected?

PURPOSE: Early reports of 30-day mortality in COVID-positive patients with hip fracture were often over 30% and were higher than historical rates of 10% in pre-COVID studies. We conducted a multi-institutional retrospective cohort study to determine whether the incidence of 30-day mortality and complications in COVID-positive patients undergoing hip fracture surgery is as high as initially reported. METHODS: A retrospective chart review was performed at 11 level I trauma centers from January 1, 2020 to May 1, 2022. Patients 50 years or older undergoing hip fracture surgery with a positive COVID test at the time of surgery were included. The primary outcome measurements were the incidence of 30-day mortality and complications. Post-operative outcomes were reported using proportions with 95% confidence interval (C.I.). RESULTS: Forty patients with a median age of 71.5 years (interquartile range, 50-87 years) met the criteria. Within 30-days, four patients (10%; 95% C.I. 3-24%) died, four developed pneumonia, three developed thromboembolism, and three remained intubated post-operatively. Increased age was a statistically significant predictor of 30-day mortality (p = 0.01), with all deaths occurring in patients over 80 years. CONCLUSION: In this multi-institutional analysis of COVID-positive patients undergoing hip fracture surgery, 30-day mortality was 10%. The 95% C.I. did not include 30%, suggesting that survival may be better than initially reported. While COVID-positive patients with hip fractures have high short-term mortality, the clinical situation may not be as dire as initially described, which may reflect initial publication bias, selection bias introduced by testing, or other issues. LEVELS OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic Level III.

Palliative appropriateness criteria: external validation of a new method to evaluate the suitability of palliative radiotherapy fractionation.

BACKGROUND: Recently, the palliative appropriateness criteria (PAC) score, a novel metric to aid clinical decision-making between different palliative radiotherapy fractionation regimens, has been developed. It includes baseline parameters including but not limited to performance status. The researchers behind the PAC score analyzed the percent of remaining life (PRL) on treatment. The latter was accomplished by calculating the time between start and finish of palliative radiotherapy (minimum 1 day in case of a single-fraction regimen) and dividing it by overall survival in days from start of radiotherapy. The purpose of the present study was to validate this novel metric. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The retrospective validation study included 219 patients (287 courses of palliative radiotherapy). The methods were identical to those employed in the score development study. The score was calculated by assigning 1 point each to several factors identified in the original study and using the online calculator provided by the PAC developers. RESULTS: Median survival was 6 months and death within 30 days from start of radiotherapy was recorded in 13% of courses. PRL on treatment ranged from 1 to 23%, median 8%. Significant associations were confirmed between online-calculated PAC score, observed survival, and risk of death within 30 days from the start of radiotherapy. Patients with score 0 had distinctly better survival than all other groups. The score-predicted median risk of death within 30 days from start of radiotherapy was 22% in our cohort. A statistically significant correlation was found between predicted and observed risk (p < 0.001). The original and present study were not perfectly concordant regarding number and type of baseline parameters that should be included when calculating the PAC score. CONCLUSION: This study supports the dual strategy of PRL and risk of early death calculation, with results stratified for fractionation regimen, in line with the original PAC score study. When considering multifraction regimens, the PAC score identifies patients who may benefit from shorter courses. Additional work is needed to answer open questions surrounding the underlying components of the score, because the original and validation study were only partially aligned.

Association between ICU admission (neutrophil + monocyte)/lymphocyte ratio and 30-day mortality in patients with sepsis: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is an important public health issue, and it is urgent to develop valuable indicators to predict the prognosis of sepsis. Our study aims to assess the predictive value of ICU admission (Neutrophil + Monocyte)/lymphocyte ratio (NMLR) on the 30-day mortality of sepsis patients. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted in septic patients, and the data were collected from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to investigate the relation between ICU admission NMLR and 30-day mortality. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) was performed to determine the optimum cut-off value of ICU admission NMLR. Survival outcomes of the two groups with different ICU admission NMLR levels were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log-rank test. RESULTS: Finally, 7292 patients were recruited in the study, of which 1601 died within 30 days of discharge. The non-survival group had higher ICU admission NMLR values than patients in the survival group (12.24 [6.44-23.67] vs. 8.71 [4.81-16.26], P < 0.001). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that ICU admission NMLR was an independent prognostic predictor on 30-day mortality (Univariate: P < 0.001; multivariate: P = 0.011). The RCS model demonstrated the upturn and non-linear relationship between ICU admission NMLR and 30-day mortality (Nonlinearity: P = 0.0124). According to the KM curve analysis,30-day survival was worse in the higher ICU admission NMLR group than that in the lower ICU admission NMLR group (Log rank test, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: The elevated ICU admission NMLR level is an independent risk factor for high 30-day mortality in patients with sepsis.