Integrating principles and tools of decision science into value-driven watershed planning for compensatory mitigation.

Several environmental policies strive to restore impaired ecosystems and could benefit from a consistent and transparent process-codeveloped with key stakeholders-to prioritize impaired ecosystems for restoration activities. The Clean Water Act, for example, establishes reallocation mechanisms to transfer ecosystem services from sites of disturbance to compensation sites to offset aquatic resource functions that are unavoidably lost through land development. However, planning for the prioritization of compensatory mitigation areas is often hampered by decision-making processes that fall into a myopic decision frame because they are not coproduced with stakeholders. In this study, we partnered with domain experts from the North Carolina Division of Mitigation Services to codevelop a real-world decision framework to prioritize catchments by potential for the development of mitigation projects following principles of a structured decision-making process and knowledge coproduction. Following an iterative decision analysis cycle, domain experts revised foundational components of the decision framework and progressively added complexity and realism as they gained additional insights or more information became available. Through the course of facilitated in-person and remote interactions, the codevelopment of a decision framework produced three main "breakthroughs" from the perspective of the stakeholder group: (a) recognition of the problem as a multiobjective decision driven by several values in addition to biogeophysical goals (e.g., functional uplift, restoring or enhancing lost functionality of ecosystems); (b) that the decision comprises a linked and sequential planning-to-implementation process; and (c) future risk associated with land-use and climate change must be considered. We also present an interactive tool for "on-the-fly" assessment of alternatives and tradeoff analysis, allowing domain experts to quickly test, react to, and revise prioritization strategies. The decision framework described in this study is not limited to the prioritization of compensatory mitigation activities across North Carolina but rather serves as a framework to prioritize a wide range of restoration, conservation, and resource allocation activities in similar environmental contexts across the nation.

Creating conservation strategies with value-focused thinking.

Biodiversity and human well-being strategies are only as good as the set of ideas people think about. We evaluated value-focused thinking (VFT), a framework that emphasizes creating objectives and strategies that are responsive to the objectives. We performed a proof-of-concept study of VFT with 6 conservation planning teams at a global conservation organization. We developed a package of materials related to VFT, including meeting-session agendas, a virtual facilitation template, facilitator's guide, and evaluation questionnaires. We used these materials to test whether VFT applied in a group setting resulted in high-quality conservation strategies and participant satisfaction and whether our materials were scalable, meaning that someone newly trained in VFT could facilitate planning meetings that resulted in high-quality strategies and participant satisfaction, as compared with an experienced VFT facilitator. Net response indicated positive compelling, feasible, creative, and representative ratings for the conservation strategies per team. Participants indicated satisfaction overall, although satisfaction was greater for objectives than for strategies. Among the participants with previous conservation planning experience, all were at least as satisfied with their VFT strategies compared with previously developed strategies, and none were less satisfied (p = 0.001). Changes in participant satisfaction were not related to facilitator type (experienced or inexperienced with VFT) (p > 0.10). Some participants had a preconceived sense of shared understanding of important values and interests before participating in the study, which VFT strengthened. Our results highlight the advantages of structuring the development and evaluation of conservation planning frameworks around VFT.

Creación de estrategias de conservación con el pensamiento orientado a valores Resumen Las estrategias para la biodiversidad y el bienestar humano son tan buenas como el conjunto de ideas en el que piensan las personas. Evaluamos el pensamiento orientado a valores (POV), un marco que promueve la creación de objetivos y estrategias responsivas a los objetivos. Realizamos un estudio de prueba de concepto del POV con seis equipos de planeación de la conservación en una organización mundial de conservación. Desarrollamos un paquete de materiales relacionado con el POV que incluyó orden del día de las reuniones, una plantilla de asesoramiento virtual, una guía para el facilitador y cuestionarios de evaluación. Usamos estos materiales para probar si el POV aplicado en un entorno de grupo da como resultado estrategias de conservación de gran calidad y la satisfacción de los participantes. También probamos si nuestros materiales podían ampliarse, es decir, si alguien con entrenamiento reciente de POV podría facilitar la planeación de reuniones para que resultaran en estrategias de gran calidad y la satisfacción de los participantes en comparación con un facilitador experimentado. Por equipo, la respuesta neta indicó calificaciones positivas, convincentes, factibles, creativas y representativas para las estrategias de conservación. Los participantes indicaron una satisfacción generalizada, aunque ésta fue mayor para los objetivos que para las estrategias. Entre los participantes con experiencia previa en la planeación de la conservación, todos estuvieron satisfechos al menos con sus estrategias de POV en comparación con las estrategias previas y ninguno estuvo menos satisfecho (p= 0.001). Los cambios en la satisfacción de los participantes no estuvieron relacionados con el tipo de facilitador (con o sin experiencia en POV) (p> 0.10). Antes de participar en el estudio, algunos participantes ya tenían un sentido preconcebido del entendimiento compartido de los valores e intereses importantes, lo que el POV fortaleció. Nuestros resultados resaltan las ventajas de la estructuración del desarrollo y la evaluación en torno al POV de los marcos de planeación de la conservación.

Developing a combined framework for priority setting in integrated health and social care systems.

BACKGROUND: There is an international move towards greater integration of health and social care to cope with the increasing demand on services.. In Scotland, legislation was passed in 2014 to integrate adult health and social care services resulting in the formation of 31 Health and Social Care Partnerships (HSCPs). Greater integration does not eliminate resource scarcity and the requirement to make (resource) allocation decisions to meet the needs of local populations. There are different perspectives on how to facilitate and improve priority setting in health and social care organisations with limited resources, but structured processes at the local level are still not widely implemented. This paper reports on work with new HSCPs in Scotland to develop a combined multi-disciplinary priority setting and resource allocation framework. METHODS: To develop the combined framework, a scoping review of the literature was conducted to determine the key principles and approaches to priority setting from economics, decision-analysis, ethics and law, and attempts to combine such approaches. Co-production of the combined framework involved a multi-disciplinary workshop including local, and national-level stakeholders and academics to discuss and gather their views. RESULTS: The key findings from the literature review and the stakeholder workshop were taken to produce a final combined framework for priority setting and resource allocation. This is underpinned by principles from economics (opportunity cost), decision science (good decisions), ethics (justice) and law (fair procedures). It outlines key stages in the priority setting process, including: framing the question, looking at current use of resources, defining options and criteria, evaluating options and criteria, and reviewing each stage. Each of these has further sub-stages and includes a focus on how the combined framework interacts with the consultation and involvement of patients, public and the wider staff. CONCLUSIONS: The integration agenda for health and social care is an opportunity to develop and implement a combined framework for setting priorities and allocating resources fairly to meet the needs of the population. A key aim of both integration and the combined framework is to facilitate the shifting of resources from acute services to the community.

Real-Time Infectious Disease Modeling to Inform Emergency Public Health Decision Making.

Infectious disease transmission is a nonlinear process with complex, sometimes unintuitive dynamics. Modeling can transform information about a disease process and its parameters into quantitative projections that help decision makers compare public health response options. However, modelers face methodologic challenges, data challenges, and communication challenges, which are exacerbated under the time constraints of a public health emergency. We review methods, applications, challenges and opportunities for real-time infectious disease modeling during public health emergencies, with examples drawn from the two deadliest pandemics in recent history: HIV/AIDS and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Greater Consideration of Animals Will Enhance Coastal Restoration Outcomes.

As efforts to restore coastal habitats accelerate, it is critical that investments are targeted to most effectively mitigate and reverse habitat loss and its impacts on biodiversity. One likely but largely overlooked impediment to effective restoration of habitat-forming organisms is failing to explicitly consider non-habitat-forming animals in restoration planning, implementation, and monitoring. These animals can greatly enhance or degrade ecosystem function, persistence, and resilience. Bivalves, for instance, can reduce sulfide stress in seagrass habitats and increase drought tolerance of saltmarsh vegetation, whereas megaherbivores can detrimentally overgraze seagrass or improve seagrass seed germination, depending on the context. Therefore, understanding when, why, and how to directly manipulate or support animals can enhance coastal restoration outcomes. In support of this expanded restoration approach, we provide a conceptual framework, incorporating lessons from structured decision-making, and describe potential actions that could lead to better restoration outcomes using case studies to illustrate practical approaches.

An introduction to decision science for conservation.

Biodiversity conservation decisions are difficult, especially when they involve differing values, complex multidimensional objectives, scarce resources, urgency, and considerable uncertainty. Decision science embodies a theory about how to make difficult decisions and an extensive array of frameworks and tools that make that theory practical. We sought to improve conceptual clarity and practical application of decision science to help decision makers apply decision science to conservation problems. We addressed barriers to the uptake of decision science, including a lack of training and awareness of decision science; confusion over common terminology and which tools and frameworks to apply; and the mistaken impression that applying decision science must be time consuming, expensive, and complex. To aid in navigating the extensive and disparate decision science literature, we clarify meaning of common terms: decision science, decision theory, decision analysis, structured decision-making, and decision-support tools. Applying decision science does not have to be complex or time consuming; rather, it begins with knowing how to think through the components of a decision utilizing decision analysis (i.e., define the problem, elicit objectives, develop alternatives, estimate consequences, and perform trade-offs). This is best achieved by applying a rapid-prototyping approach. At each step, decision-support tools can provide additional insight and clarity, whereas decision-support frameworks (e.g., priority threat management and systematic conservation planning) can aid navigation of multiple steps of a decision analysis for particular contexts. We summarize key decision-support frameworks and tools and describe to which step of a decision analysis, and to which contexts, each is most useful to apply. Our introduction to decision science will aid in contextualizing current approaches and new developments, and help decision makers begin to apply decision science to conservation problems.

Las decisiones sobre la conservación de la biodiversidad son difíciles de tomar, especialmente cuando involucran diferentes valores, objetivos multidimensionales complejos, recursos limitados, urgencia y una incertidumbre considerable. Las ciencias de la decisión incorporan una teoría sobre cómo tomar decisiones difíciles y una variedad extensa de marcos de trabajo y herramientas que transforman esa teoría en práctica. Buscamos mejorar la claridad conceptual y la aplicación práctica de las ciencias de la decisión para ayudar al órgano decisorio a aplicar estas ciencias a los problemas de conservación. Nos enfocamos en las barreras para la aceptación de las ciencias de la decisión, incluyendo la falta de capacitación y de conciencia por estas ciencias; la confusión por la terminología común y cuáles herramientas y marcos de trabajo aplicar; y la impresión errónea de que la aplicación de estas ciencias consume tiempo y debe ser costosa y compleja. Para asistir en la navegación de la literatura extensa y dispar de las ciencias de la decisión, aclaramos el significado de varios términos comunes: ciencias de la decisión, teoría de la decisión, análisis de decisiones, toma estructurada de decisiones y herramientas de apoyo para las decisiones. La aplicación de las ciencias de la decisión no tiene que ser compleja ni debe llevar mucho tiempo; de hecho, todo comienza con saber cómo pensar detenidamente en los componentes de una decisión mediante el análisis de decisiones (es decir, definir el problema, producir objetivos, desarrollar alternativas, estimar consecuencias y realizar compensaciones). Lo anterior se logra de mejor manera mediante la aplicación de una estrategia prototipos rápidos. En cada paso, las herramientas de apoyo para las decisiones pueden proporcionar visión y claridad adicionales, mientras que los marcos de apoyo para las decisiones (p.ej.: gestión de amenazas prioritarias y planeación sistemática de la conservación) pueden asistir en la navegación de los diferentes pasos de un análisis de decisiones para contextos particulares. Resumimos los marcos de trabajo y las herramientas más importantes de apoyo para las decisiones y describimos el paso, y el contexto, del análisis de decisiones para el que es más útil aplicarlos. Nuestra introducción a las ciencias de la decisión apoyará en la contextualización de las estrategias actuales y los nuevos desarrollos, y ayudarán al órgano decisorio a comenzar a aplicar estas ciencias en los problemas de conservación.

Preferences for Long-Acting and Alternative Modalities for PrEP among Military Men Who Have Sex with Men: Segmentation Results of an Adaptive Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis Study.

The use of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention within the U.S. military is low. Implementing preference-based alternative modalities of PrEP delivery, however, can be an innovative strategy to address the specific barriers to PrEP uptake among military MSM. We sought to identify population-based, segment-specific preferences for longer-acting and alternative PrEP delivery modalities to guide patient-centered strategies to optimize uptake within military-serving healthcare systems. HIV-negative military men who have sex with men (MSM) completed an anonymous, adaptive choice-based conjoint (ACBC) analysis survey consisting of five key attributes of interest (dosing method, provider type, visit location, lab work evaluation location, and dispensing venue). Relative importance and part-worth utility scores were generated using Hierarchical Bayes (HB) estimation, and cluster ensemble analysis grouped participants into "phenotype" segments by preference similarity. The randomized first-choice model was then used to examine changes in program interest rates among segments through market simulation. The 429 participants were segmented into five preference groups. The dosing method attribute was found to be the most important to nearly all segments. Simulations revealed that PrEP program interest among two segments with low interest levels increased when smartphone, civilian-based, and long-acting injectable PrEP options were involved. Findings also suggested a need for clinics to be responsive and sensitive to sexual practices, risk perception, and functional PrEP knowledge. Responsiveness to segment-specific preferences in the design of military PrEP programs and acting on the importance of clinical relationships within the context of PrEP engagement within a military setting may contribute to increasing PrEP uptake.

Verdict spotting: investigating the effects of juror bias, evidence anchors and verdict system in jurors.

The Scottish verdict of not proven represents a second acquittal verdict which is not legally defined. Existing research into the influence of the not proven verdict on jury decision making is modest. The main aim of the current study was therefore to investigate the influence of verdict systems (two vs three) on juror decision making. The effect of pre-trial bias and evidence anchors on juror judgements were also examined. One-hundred and twenty-eight mock jurors listened to two homicide vignettes and were asked to rate their belief of guilt of the accused and to give a verdict in both trials. The results suggest that pre-trial bias was a significant predictor of both verdict choice and belief of guilt, whereas evidence anchors were not a significant predictor of either. Finally, both guilty and not guilty verdicts were given with increased frequency in the two-verdict system when compared to the three-verdict system.

Implementation Barriers to Value of Information Analysis in Health Technology Decision Making: Results From a Process Evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: Value of information (VOI) analysis can support health technology assessment decision making, but it is a long way from being standard use. The objective of this study was to understand barriers to the implementation of VOI analysis and propose actions to overcome these. METHODS: We performed a process evaluation of VOI analysis use within decision making on tomosynthesis versus digital mammography for use in the Dutch breast cancer population screening. Based on steering committee meeting attendance and regular meetings with analysts, we developed a list of barriers to VOI use, which were analyzed using an established diffusion model. We proposed actions to address these barriers. Barriers and actions were discussed and validated in a workshop with stakeholders representing patients, clinicians, regulators, policy advisors, researchers, and the industry. RESULTS: Consensus was reached on groups of barriers, which included characteristics of VOI analysis itself, stakeholder's attitudes, analysts' and policy makers' skills and knowledge, system readiness, and implementation in the organization. Observed barriers did not only pertain to VOI analysis itself but also to formulating the objective of the assessment, economic modeling, and broader aspects of uncertainty assessment. Actions to overcome these barriers related to organizational changes, knowledge transfer, cultural change, and tools. CONCLUSIONS: This in-depth analysis of barriers to implementation of VOI analysis and resulting actions and tools may be useful to health technology assessment organizations that wish to implement VOI analysis in technology assessment and research prioritization. Further research should focus on application and evaluation of the proposed actions in real-world assessment processes.

Using decision science to evaluate global biodiversity indices.

Global biodiversity indices are used to measure environmental change and progress toward conservation goals, yet few indices have been evaluated comprehensively for their capacity to detect trends of interest, such as declines in threatened species or ecosystem function. Using a structured approach based on decision science, we qualitatively evaluated 9 indices commonly used to track biodiversity at global and regional scales against 5 criteria relating to objectives, design, behavior, incorporation of uncertainty, and constraints (e.g., costs and data availability). Evaluation was based on reference literature for indices available at the time of assessment. We identified 4 key gaps in indices assessed: pathways to achieving goals (means objectives) were not always clear or relevant to desired outcomes (fundamental objectives); index testing and understanding of expected behavior was often lacking; uncertainty was seldom acknowledged or accounted for; and costs of implementation were seldom considered. These gaps may render indices inadequate in certain decision-making contexts and are problematic for indices linked with biodiversity targets and sustainability goals. Ensuring that index objectives are clear and their design is underpinned by a model of relevant processes are crucial in addressing the gaps identified by our assessment. Uptake and productive use of indices will be improved if index performance is tested rigorously and assumptions and uncertainties are clearly communicated to end users. This will increase index accuracy and value in tracking biodiversity change and supporting national and global policy decisions, such as the post-2020 global biodiversity framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Uso de las Ciencias de la Decisión para Evaluar los Índices Globales de Biodiversidad Resumen Los índices globales de biodiversidad se usan para medir el cambio ambiental y el avance hacia los objetivos de conservación, aunque pocos han sido evaluados completamente en cuanto a su capacidad para detectar las tendencias de interés como las declinaciones de especies amenazadas o la función del ecosistema. Evaluamos cualitativamente nueve índices de uso común para dar seguimiento a la biodiversidad a escala global y regional contra cinco criterios relacionados con los objetivos, diseño, comportamiento, incorporación de la incertidumbre y restricciones (p. ej.: costos y disponibilidad de datos) mediante una estrategia estructurada basada en las ciencias de la decisión. La evaluación se basó en la literatura de referencia para los índices disponibles al momento del análisis. Identificamos cuatro vacíos importantes en los índices estudiados: las vías para lograr los objetivos (objetivos medios) no fueron siempre claras o relevantes para los resultados deseados (objetivos fundamentales); el análisis del índice y el entendimiento del comportamiento esperado casi siempre fueron escasos; pocas veces se consideró o explicó la incertidumbre; y casi nunca se consideraron los costos de la implementación. Estos vacíos pueden hacer que los índices sean inadecuados en ciertos contextos de toma de decisiones y son problemáticos para los índices vinculados a los objetivos de biodiversidad y las metas de sustentabilidad. Es de suma importancia asegurarse que los objetivos del índice sean claros y que su diseño esté respaldado por un modelo de procesos relevantes para tratar con los vacíos identificados en nuestro estudio. La aceptación y el uso productivo de los índices mejorarán si el desempeño del índice es evaluado rigurosamente y las suposiciones e incertidumbres se les comunican claramente a los usuarios finales. Lo anterior aumentará la precisión y valor del índice en el seguimiento de los cambios de la biodiversidad y en el apoyo a las decisiones políticas nacionales y mundiales, como el marco de trabajo para la biodiversidad post-2020 establecido por la Convención sobre la Diversidad Biológica.

Informing management decisions for ecological networks, using dynamic models calibrated to noisy time-series data.

Well-intentioned environmental management can backfire, causing unforeseen damage. To avoid this, managers and ecologists seek accurate predictions of the ecosystem-wide impacts of interventions, given small and imprecise datasets, which is an incredibly difficult task. We generated and analysed thousands of ecosystem population time series to investigate whether fitted models can aid decision-makers to select interventions. Using these time-series data (sparse and noisy datasets drawn from deterministic Lotka-Volterra systems with two to nine species, of known network structure), dynamic model forecasts of whether a species' future population will be positively or negatively affected by rapid eradication of another species were correct > 70% of the time. Although 70% correct classifications is only slightly better than an uninformative prediction (50%), this classification accuracy can be feasibly improved by increasing monitoring accuracy and frequency. Our findings suggest that models may not need to produce well-constrained predictions before they can inform decisions that improve environmental outcomes.

Prioritizing debt conversion opportunities for marine conservation.

Incentivized debt conversion is a financing mechanism that can assist countries with a heavy debt burden to bolster their long-term domestic investment in nature conservation. The Nature Conservancy, an international conservation-based nongovernmental organization, is adapting debt conversions to support marine conservation efforts by small island developing states and coastal countries. Prioritizing debt conversion opportunities according to their potential return on investment can increase the impact and effectiveness of this finance mechanism. We developed guidance on how to do so with a decision-support approach that relies on a novel threat-based adaptation of cost-effectiveness analysis. We constructed scenarios by varying parameters of the approach, including enabling conditions, expected benefits, and threat classifications. Incorporating both abatable and unabatable threats affected priorities across planning scenarios. Similarly, differences in scenario construction resulted in unique solution sets for top priorities. We show how environmental organizations, private entities, and investment banks can adopt structured prioritization frameworks for making decisions about conservation finance investments, such as debt conversions. Our guidance can accommodate a suite of social, ecological, and economic considerations, making the approach broadly applicable to other conservation finance mechanisms or investment strategies that seek to establish a transparent process for return-on-investment decision-making.

Priorización de las Oportunidades de Conversión de Deudas para la Conservación Marina Resumen La incentivación de la conversión de deudas es un mecanismo financiero que puede apoyar a los países con una gran carga deudora a impulsar su inversión doméstica a largo plazo en la conservación de la naturaleza. The Nature Conservancy, una organización internacional no gubernamental basada en la conservación está adaptando las conversiones de deudas para que apoyen a los esfuerzos de conservación marina realizados por países en desarrollo ubicados en pequeñas islas y por los países costeros. La priorización de las oportunidades de conversión de deudas según su rendimiento potencial de la inversión puede incrementar el impacto y la efectividad de este mecanismo financiero. Desarrollamos una guía de cómo lograr esto con una estrategia de respaldo a las decisiones que depende de una adaptación novedosa basada en amenazas de un análisis de rentabilidad. Construimos escenarios por medio de la variación de los parámetros de alcance (incluyendo a las condiciones de habilitación), los beneficios esperados y las clasificaciones de las amenazas. La incorporación de las amenazas abatibles e imbatibles afectó a las prioridades en todos los escenarios de planeación. De manera similar, las diferencias en la construcción de los escenarios resultaron en un conjunto de soluciones únicas para las principales prioridades. Así demostramos cómo las organizaciones ambientales, entidades privadas y los bancos de inversión pueden adoptar marcos de trabajo de priorización estructurada para la toma de decisiones sobre la inversión en el financiamiento de la conservación, como lo son las conversiones de deudas. Nuestra guía puede satisfacer un conjunto de consideraciones sociales, ecológicas y económicas, lo que vuelve a la estrategia en general pertinente para otros mecanismos de financiamiento de la conservación o estrategias de inversión que busquen establecer un proceso transparente para la toma de decisiones de rendimiento de la inversión.

A novel approach to assessing the ecosystem-wide impacts of reintroductions.

Reintroducing a species to an ecosystem can have significant impacts on the recipient ecological community. Although reintroductions can have striking and positive outcomes, they also carry risks; many well-intentioned conservation actions have had surprising and unsatisfactory outcomes. A range of network-based mathematical methods has been developed to make quantitative predictions of how communities will respond to management interventions. These methods are based on the limited knowledge of which species interact with each other and in what way. However, expert knowledge isn't perfect and can only take models so far. Fortunately, other types of data, such as abundance time series, is often available, but, to date, no quantitative method exists to integrate these various data types into these models, allowing more precise ecosystem-wide predictions. In this paper, we develop mathematical methods that combine time-series data of multiple species with knowledge of species interactions and we apply it to proposed reintroductions at Booderee National Park in Australia. There have been large fluctuations in species abundances at Booderee National Park in recent history, following intense feral fox (Vulpes vulpes) control, including the local extinction of the greater glider (Petauroides volans). These fluctuations can provide information about the system isn't readily obtained from a stable system, and we use them to inform models that we then use to predict potential outcomes of eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) and long-nosed potoroo (Potorous tridactylus) reintroductions. One of the key species of conservation concern in the park is the Eastern Bristlebird (Dasyornis brachypterus), and we find that long-nosed potoroo introduction would have very little impact on the Eastern Bristlebird population, while the eastern quoll introduction increased the likelihood of Eastern Bristlebird decline, although that depends on the strength and form of any possible interaction.

Untapped potential of collective intelligence in conservation and environmental decision making.

Environmental decisions are often deferred to groups of experts, committees, or panels to develop climate policy, plan protected areas, or negotiate trade-offs for biodiversity conservation. There is, however, surprisingly little empirical research on the performance of group decision making related to the environment. We examined examples from a range of different disciplines, demonstrating the emergence of collective intelligence (CI) in the elicitation of quantitative estimates, crowdsourcing applications, and small-group problem solving. We explored the extent to which similar tools are used in environmental decision making. This revealed important gaps (e.g., a lack of integration of fundamental research in decision-making practice, absence of systematic evaluation frameworks) that obstruct mainstreaming of CI. By making judicious use of interdisciplinary learning opportunities, CI can be harnessed effectively to improve decision making in conservation and environmental management. To elicit reliable quantitative estimates an understanding of cognitive psychology and to optimize crowdsourcing artificial intelligence tools may need to be incorporated. The business literature offers insights into the importance of soft skills and diversity in team effectiveness. Environmental problems set a challenging and rich testing ground for collective-intelligence tools and frameworks. We argue this creates an opportunity for significant advancement in decision-making research and practice.

Potencial No Explotado de la Inteligencia Colectiva en la Toma de Decisiones Ambientales y de Conservación Resumen Las decisiones ambientales comúnmente se difieren a grupos de expertos, comités, o paneles para desarrollar la política climática, planear las áreas protegidas o negociar compensaciones por la conservación de la biodiversidad. Aun así, sorprendentemente, existen pocas investigaciones empíricas sobre el desempeño de la toma grupal de decisiones en relación con el ambiente. Examinamos los ejemplos de una gama de disciplinas diferentes, demostrando el surgimiento de la inteligencia colectiva en la obtención de estimaciones cuantitativas, las aplicaciones de la colaboración masiva y la resolución de problemas en grupos pequeños. Exploramos el alcance que tienen las herramientas similares que se usan en la toma de decisiones ambientales. Esto último reveló vacíos importantes (p. ej.: la falta de integración de investigaciones fundamentales en la práctica de la toma de decisiones, la ausencia de marcos de trabajo de evaluación sistemática) que obstruyen la popularización de la inteligencia colectiva. Si hacemos un uso juicioso de las oportunidades de aprendizaje interdisciplinario, la inteligencia colectiva puede aprovecharse efectivamente para mejorar la toma de decisiones en el manejo ambiental y de conservación. La incorporación de un entendimiento de la psicología cognitiva y la optimización de las herramientas de IA para la colaboración masiva pueden ser necesarias para obtener estimados cuantitativos confiables. La literatura de los negocios ofrece conocimientos sobre la importancia de las habilidades blandas y la diversidad en la efectividad del equipo. Los problemas ambientales plantean un campo de pruebas rico y desafiante para las herramientas y los marcos de trabajo de inteligencia colectiva. Argumentamos que esto crea una oportunidad para el avance significativo en la investigación y la práctica de la toma de decisiones.

Integration of social and ecological sciences for natural resource decision making: challenges and opportunities.

The last 25 years have witnessed growing recognition that natural resource management decisions depend as much on understanding humans and their social interactions as on understanding the interactions between non-human organisms and their environment. Decision science provides a framework for integrating ecological and social factors into a decision, but challenges to integration remain. The decision-analytic framework elicits values and preferences to help articulate objectives, and then evaluates the outcomes of alternative management actions to achieve these objectives. Integrating social science into these steps can be hindered by failing to include social scientists as more than stakeholder-process facilitators, assuming that specific decision-analytic skills are commonplace for social scientists, misperceptions of social data as inherently qualitative, timescale mismatches for iterating through decision analysis and collecting relevant social data, difficulties in predicting human behavior, and failures of institutions to recognize the importance of this integration. We engage these challenges, and suggest solutions to them, helping move forward the integration of social and biological/ecological knowledge and considerations in decision-making.

Determining when to change course in management actions.

Time is of the essence in conservation biology. To secure the persistence of a species, we need to understand how to balance time spent among different management actions. A new and simple method to test the efficacy of a range of conservation actions is required. Thus, we devised a general theoretical framework to help determine whether to test a new action and when to cease a trial and revert to an existing action if the new action did not perform well. The framework involves constructing a general population model under the different management actions and specifying a management objective. By maximizing the management objective, we could generate an analytical solution that identifies the optimal timing of when to change management action. We applied the analytical solution to the case of the Christmas Island pipistrelle bat (Pipistrelle murrayi), a species for which captive breeding might have prevented its extinction. For this case, we used our model to determine whether to start a captive breeding program and when to stop a captive breeding program and revert to managing the species in the wild, given that the management goal is to maximize the chance of reaching a target wild population size. For the pipistrelle bat, captive breeding was to start immediately and it was desirable to place the species in captivity for the entire management period. The optimal time to revert to managing the species in the wild was driven by several key parameters, including the management goal, management time frame, and the growth rates of the population under different management actions. Knowing when to change management actions can help conservation managers' act in a timely fashion to avoid species extinction.

Social network centrality predicts dietary decisions in a wild bird population.

How individuals balance costs and benefits of group living remains central to understanding sociality. In relation to diet, social foraging provides many advantages but also increases competition. Nevertheless, social individuals may offset increased competition by broadening their diet and consuming novel foods. Despite the expected relationships between social behavior and dietary decisions, how sociality shapes individuals' novel food consumption remains largely untested in natural populations. Here, we use wild great tits to experimentally test how sociality predicts dietary decisions. We show that individuals with more social connections have higher propensity to use novel foods compared to socially peripheral individuals, and this is unrelated to neophobia, observations, and demographic factors. These findings indicate sociable individuals may offset potential costs of competition by foraging more broadly. We discuss how social environments may drive behavioral change in natural populations, and the implications for the causes and consequences of social strategies and dietary decisions.

Success-driven opinion formation determines social tensions.

Polarization is common in politics and public opinion. It is believed to be shaped by media as well as ideologies, and often incited by misinformation. However, little is known about the microscopic dynamics behind polarization and the resulting social tensions. By coupling opinion formation with the strategy selection in different social dilemmas, we reveal how success at an individual level transforms to global consensus or lack thereof. When defection carries with it the fear of punishment in the absence of greed, as in the stag-hunt game, opinion fragmentation is the smallest. Conversely, if defection promises a higher payoff and also evokes greed, like in the prisoner's dilemma and snowdrift game, consensus is more difficult to attain. Our research thus challenges the top-down narrative of social tensions, showing they might originate from fundamental principles at individual level, like the desire to prevail in pairwise evolutionary comparisons.

Neural oscillation amplitude in the frontal cortex predicts esport results.

In competitive matches, strategic decisions and emotional control are important. Relevant cognitive functions and corresponding neural activities in simple and short-term laboratory tasks have been reported. Brain resources are intensively allocated in the frontal cortex during strategic decision-making. The suppression of the frontal cortex with alpha-synchronization optimizes emotional control. However, no studies have reported the contribution of neural activity to the outcome of a more complex and prolonged task. To clarify this issue, we focused on a fighting video game following a two-round first-pass system. Frontal high-gamma and alpha power in the first and third pre-round periods, respectively, were found to be increased in a winning match. Furthermore, inter-participant variations in the importance of strategic decisions and emotional control in the first and third pre-round periods were correlated with frontal high-gamma and alpha power, respectively. Therefore, the psychological and mental state, involving frontal neural fluctuations, is predictive of match outcome.

Consideration of compound drivers and impacts in the disaster risk reduction cycle.

Consideration of compound drivers and impacts are often missing from applications within the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) cycle, leading to poorer understanding of risk and benefits of actions. The need to include compound considerations is known, but lack of guidance is prohibiting practitioners from including these considerations. This article makes a step toward practitioner guidance by providing examples where consideration of compound drivers, hazards, and impacts may affect different application domains within disaster risk management. We discern five DRR categories and provide illustrative examples of studies that highlight the role of "compound thinking" in early warning, emergency response, infrastructure management, long-term planning, and capacity building. We conclude with a number of common elements that may contribute to the development of practical guidelines to develop appropriate applications for risk management.