Biolinguistic graph fusion model for circRNA-miRNA association prediction.

Emerging clinical evidence suggests that sophisticated associations with circular ribonucleic acids (RNAs) (circRNAs) and microRNAs (miRNAs) are a critical regulatory factor of various pathological processes and play a critical role in most intricate human diseases. Nonetheless, the above correlations via wet experiments are error-prone and labor-intensive, and the underlying novel circRNA-miRNA association (CMA) has been validated by numerous existing computational methods that rely only on single correlation data. Considering the inadequacy of existing machine learning models, we propose a new model named BGF-CMAP, which combines the gradient boosting decision tree with natural language processing and graph embedding methods to infer associations between circRNAs and miRNAs. Specifically, BGF-CMAP extracts sequence attribute features and interaction behavior features by Word2vec and two homogeneous graph embedding algorithms, large-scale information network embedding and graph factorization, respectively. Multitudinous comprehensive experimental analysis revealed that BGF-CMAP successfully predicted the complex relationship between circRNAs and miRNAs with an accuracy of 82.90% and an area under receiver operating characteristic of 0.9075. Furthermore, 23 of the top 30 miRNA-associated circRNAs of the studies on data were confirmed in relevant experiences, showing that the BGF-CMAP model is superior to others. BGF-CMAP can serve as a helpful model to provide a scientific theoretical basis for the study of CMA prediction.

DBPboost:A method of classification of DNA-binding proteins based on improved differential evolution algorithm and feature extraction.

DNA-binding proteins are a class of proteins that can interact with DNA molecules through physical and chemical interactions. Their main functions include regulating gene expression, maintaining chromosome structure and stability, and more. DNA-binding proteins play a crucial role in cellular and molecular biology, as they are essential for maintaining normal cellular physiological functions and adapting to environmental changes. The prediction of DNA-binding proteins has been a hot topic in the field of bioinformatics. The key to accurately classifying DNA-binding proteins is to find suitable feature sources and explore the information they contain. Although there are already many models for predicting DNA-binding proteins, there is still room for improvement in mining feature source information and calculation methods. In this study, we created a model called DBPboost to better identify DNA-binding proteins. The innovation of this study lies in the use of eight feature extraction methods, the improvement of the feature selection step, which involves selecting some features first and then performing feature selection again after feature fusion, and the optimization of the differential evolution algorithm in feature fusion, which improves the performance of feature fusion. The experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of the model on the UniSwiss dataset is 89.32%, and the sensitivity is 89.01%, which is better than most existing models.

Alexithymia modulates emotion concept activation during facial expression processing.

Alexithymia is characterized by difficulties in emotional information processing. However, the underlying reasons for emotional processing deficits in alexithymia are not fully understood. The present study aimed to investigate the mechanism underlying emotional deficits in alexithymia. Using the Toronto Alexithymia Scale-20, we recruited college students with high alexithymia (n = 24) or low alexithymia (n = 24) in this study. Participants judged the emotional consistency of facial expressions and contextual sentences while recording their event-related potentials. Behaviorally, the high alexithymia group showed longer response times versus the low alexithymia group in processing facial expressions. The event-related potential results showed that the high alexithymia group had more negative-going N400 amplitudes compared with the low alexithymia group in the incongruent condition. More negative N400 amplitudes are also associated with slower responses to facial expressions. Furthermore, machine learning analyses based on N400 amplitudes could distinguish the high alexithymia group from the low alexithymia group in the incongruent condition. Overall, these findings suggest worse facial emotion perception for the high alexithymia group, potentially due to difficulty in spontaneously activating emotion concepts. Our findings have important implications for the affective science and clinical intervention of alexithymia-related affective disorders.

An Exploratory Approach of Clinically Useful Biomarkers of Cvid by Logistic Regression.

Despite advancements in genetic and functional studies, the timely diagnosis of common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) remains a significant challenge. This exploratory study was designed to assess the diagnostic performance of a novel panel of biomarkers for CVID, incorporating the sum of κ+λ light chains, soluble B-cell maturation antigen (sBCMA) levels, switched memory B cells (smB) and the VISUAL score. Comparative analyses utilizing logistic regression were performed against established gold-standard tests, specifically antibody responses. Our research encompassed 88 subjects, comprising 27 CVID, 23 selective IgA deficiency (SIgAD), 20 secondary immunodeficiency (SID) patients and 18 healthy controls. We established the diagnostic accuracy of sBCMA and the sum κ+λ, achieving sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Spe) of 89% and 89%, and 90% and 99%, respectively. Importantly, sBCMA showed strong correlations with all evaluated biomarkers (sum κ+λ, smB cell and VISUAL), whereas the sum κ+λ was uniquely independent from smB cells or VISUAL, suggesting its additional diagnostic value. Through a multivariate tree decision model, specific antibody responses and the sum κ+λ emerged as independent, signature biomarkers for CVID, with the model showcasing an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.946, Se 0.85, and Spe 0.95. This tree-decision model promises to enhance diagnostic efficiency for CVID, underscoring the sum κ+λ as a superior CVID classifier and potential diagnostic criterion within the panel.

Ensemble methods of rank-based trees for single sample classification with gene expression profiles.

Building Single Sample Predictors (SSPs) from gene expression profiles presents challenges, notably due to the lack of calibration across diverse gene expression measurement technologies. However, recent research indicates the viability of classifying phenotypes based on the order of expression of multiple genes. Existing SSP methods often rely on Top Scoring Pairs (TSP), which are platform-independent and easy to interpret through the concept of "relative expression reversals". Nevertheless, TSP methods face limitations in classifying complex patterns involving comparisons of more than two gene expressions. To overcome these constraints, we introduce a novel approach that extends TSP rules by constructing rank-based trees capable of encompassing extensive gene-gene comparisons. This method is bolstered by incorporating two ensemble strategies, boosting and random forest, to mitigate the risk of overfitting. Our implementation of ensemble rank-based trees employs boosting with LogitBoost cost and random forests, addressing both binary and multi-class classification problems. In a comparative analysis across 12 cancer gene expression datasets, our proposed methods demonstrate superior performance over both the k-TSP classifier and nearest template prediction methods. We have further refined our approach to facilitate variable selection and the generation of clear, precise decision rules from rank-based trees, enhancing interpretability. The cumulative evidence from our research underscores the significant potential of ensemble rank-based trees in advancing disease classification via gene expression data, offering a robust, interpretable, and scalable solution. Our software is available at https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ranktreeEnsemble .

Demographic and clinical characteristics associated with advanced stage colorectal cancer: a registry-based cohort study in Saudi Arabia.

BACKGROUND: In Saudi Arabia, approximately one-third of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients are diagnosed at an advanced stage. Late diagnosis is often associated with a worse prognosis. Understanding the risk factors for late-stage presentation of CRC is crucial for developing targeted interventions enabling earlier detection and improved patient outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study on 17,541 CRC patients from the Saudi Cancer Registry (1997-2017). We defined distant CRCs as late-stage and localized and regional CRCs as early-stage. To assess risk factors for late-stage CRC, we first used multivariable logistic regression, then developed a decision tree to segment regions by late-stage CRC risk, and finally used stratified logistic regression models to examine geographical and sex variations in risk factors. RESULTS: Of all cases, 29% had a late-stage diagnosis, and 71% had early-stage CRC. Young (< 50 years) and unmarried women had an increased risk of late-stage CRC, overall and in some regions. Regional risk variations by sex were observed. Sex-related differences in late-stage rectosigmoid cancer risk were observed in specific regions but not in the overall population. Patients diagnosed after 2001 had increased risks of late-stage presentation. CONCLUSION: Our study identified risk factors for late-stage CRC that can guide targeted early detection efforts. Further research is warranted to fully understand these relationships and develop and evaluate effective prevention strategies.

A health decision analytical model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of female genital schistosomiasis screening strategies: The female genital schistosomiasis SCREEN framework.

Female genital schistosomiasis is a chronic gynaecological disease caused by the waterborne parasite Schistosoma (S.) haematobium. It affects an estimated 30-56 million girls and women globally, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa where it is endemic, and negatively impacts their sexual and reproductive life. Recent studies found evidence of an association between female genital schistosomiasis and increased prevalence of HIV and cervical precancer lesions. Despite the large population at risk, the burden and impact of female genital schistosomiasis are scarcely documented, resulting in neglect and insufficient resource allocation. There is currently no standardised method for individual or population-based female genital schistosomiasis screening and diagnosis which hinders accurate assessment of disease burden in endemic countries. To optimise financial allocations for female genital schistosomiasis screening, it is necessary to explore the cost-effectiveness of different strategies by combining cost and impact estimates. Yet, no economic evaluation has explored the value for money of alternative screening methods. This paper describes a novel application of health decision analytical modelling to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different female genital schistosomiasis screening strategies across endemic settings. The model combines a decision tree for female genital schistosomiasis screening strategies, and a Markov model for the natural history of cervical cancer to estimate the cost per disability-adjusted life-years averted for different screening strategies, stratified by HIV status. It is a starting point for discussion and for supporting priority setting in a data-sparse environment.

Multiobjective tree-based reinforcement learning for estimating tolerant dynamic treatment regimes.

A dynamic treatment regime (DTR) is a sequence of treatment decision rules that dictate individualized treatments based on evolving treatment and covariate history. It provides a vehicle for optimizing a clinical decision support system and fits well into the broader paradigm of personalized medicine. However, many real-world problems involve multiple competing priorities, and decision rules differ when trade-offs are present. Correspondingly, there may be more than one feasible decision that leads to empirically sufficient optimization. In this paper, we propose a concept of "tolerant regime," which provides a set of individualized feasible decision rules under a prespecified tolerance rate. A multiobjective tree-based reinforcement learning (MOT-RL) method is developed to directly estimate the tolerant DTR (tDTR) that optimizes multiple objectives in a multistage multitreatment setting. At each stage, MOT-RL constructs an unsupervised decision tree by modeling the counterfactual mean outcome of each objective via semiparametric regression and maximizing a purity measure constructed by the scalarized augmented inverse probability weighted estimators (SAIPWE). The algorithm is implemented in a backward inductive manner through multiple decision stages, and it estimates the optimal DTR and tDTR depending on the decision-maker's preferences. Multiobjective tree-based reinforcement learning is robust, efficient, easy-to-interpret, and flexible to different settings. We apply MOT-RL to evaluate 2-stage chemotherapy regimes that reduce disease burden and prolong survival for advanced prostate cancer patients using a dataset collected at MD Anderson Cancer Center.

A multi-center diagnostic system for intrahepatic mass-forming cholangiocarcinoma based on preoperative MRI and clinical features.

OBJECTIVES: To establish a non-invasive diagnostic system for intrahepatic mass-forming cholangiocarcinoma (IMCC) via decision tree analysis. METHODS: Totally 1008 patients with 504 pathologically confirmed IMCCs and proportional hepatocellular carcinomas (HCC) and combined hepatocellular cholangiocarcinomas (cHCC-CC) from multi-centers were retrospectively included (internal cohort n = 700, external cohort n = 308). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were applied to evaluate the independent clinical and MRI predictors for IMCC, and the selected features were used to develop a decision tree-based diagnostic system. Diagnostic efficacy of the established system was calculated by the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis in the internal training-testing and external validation cohorts, and also in small lesions ≤ 3 cm. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis revealed that female, no chronic liver disease or cirrhosis, elevated carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) level, normal alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level, lobulated tumor shape, progressive or persistent enhancement pattern, no enhancing tumor capsule, targetoid appearance, and liver surface retraction were independent characteristics favoring the diagnosis of IMCC over HCC or cHCC-CC (odds ratio = 3.273-25.00, p < 0.001 to p = 0.021). Among which enhancement pattern had the highest weight of 0.816. The diagnostic system incorporating significant characteristics above showed excellent performance in the internal training (area under the curve (AUC) 0.971), internal testing (AUC 0.956), and external validation (AUC 0.945) cohorts, as well as in small lesions ≤ 3 cm (AUC 0.956). CONCLUSIONS: In consideration of the great generalizability and clinical efficacy in multi-centers, the proposed diagnostic system may serve as a non-invasive, reliable, and easy-to-operate tool in IMCC diagnosis, providing an efficient approach to discriminate IMCC from other HCC-containing primary liver cancers. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: This study established a non-invasive, easy-to-operate, and explainable decision tree-based diagnostic system for intrahepatic mass-forming cholangiocarcinoma, which may provide essential information for clinical decision-making. KEY POINTS: • Distinguishing intrahepatic mass-forming cholangiocarcinoma (IMCC) from other primary liver cancers is important for both treatment planning and outcome prediction. • The MRI-based diagnostic system showed great performance with satisfying generalization ability in the diagnosis and discrimination of IMCC. • The diagnostic system may serve as a non-invasive, easy-to-operate, and explainable tool in the diagnosis and risk stratification for IMCC.

LightGBM outperforms other machine learning techniques in predicting graft failure after liver transplantation: Creation of a predictive model through large-scale analysis.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of graft failure following liver transplantation (LTx) is consistent. While traditional risk scores for LTx have limited accuracy, the potential of machine learning (ML) in this area remains uncertain, despite its promise in other transplant domains. This study aims to determine ML's predictive limitations in LTx by replicating methods used in previous heart transplant research. METHODS: This study utilized the UNOS STAR database, selecting 64,384 adult patients who underwent LTx between 2010 and 2020. Gradient boosting models (XGBoost and LightGBM) were used to predict 14, 30, and 90-day graft failure compared to conventional logistic regression model. Models were evaluated using both shuffled and rolling cross-validation (CV) methodologies. Model performance was assessed using the AUC across validation iterations. RESULTS: In a study comparing predictive models for 14-day, 30-day and 90-day graft survival, LightGBM consistently outperformed other models, achieving the highest AUC of.740,.722, and.700 in shuffled CV methods. However, in rolling CV the accuracy of the model declined across every ML algorithm. The analysis revealed influential factors for graft survival prediction across all models, including total bilirubin, medical condition, recipient age, and donor AST, among others. Several features like donor age and recipient diabetes history were important in two out of three models. CONCLUSIONS: LightGBM enhances short-term graft survival predictions post-LTx. However, due to changing medical practices and selection criteria, continuous model evaluation is essential. Future studies should focus on temporal variations, clinical implications, and ensure model transparency for broader medical utility.

Machine learning approach as an early warning system to prevent foodborne Salmonella outbreaks in northwestern Italy.

Salmonellosis, one of the most common foodborne infections in Europe, is monitored by food safety surveillance programmes, resulting in the generation of extensive databases. By leveraging tree-based machine learning (ML) algorithms, we exploited data from food safety audits to predict spatiotemporal patterns of salmonellosis in northwestern Italy. Data on human cases confirmed in 2015-2018 (n = 1969) and food surveillance data collected in 2014-2018 were used to develop ML algorithms. We integrated the monthly municipal human incidence with 27 potential predictors, including the observed prevalence of Salmonella in food. We applied the tree regression, random forest and gradient boosting algorithms considering different scenarios and evaluated their predictivity in terms of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and R2. Using a similar dataset from the year 2019, spatiotemporal predictions and their relative sensitivities and specificities were obtained. Random forest and gradient boosting (R2 = 0.55, MAPE = 7.5%) outperformed the tree regression algorithm (R2 = 0.42, MAPE = 8.8%). Salmonella prevalence in food; spatial features; and monitoring efforts in ready-to-eat milk, fruits and vegetables, and pig meat products contributed the most to the models' predictivity, reducing the variance by 90.5%. Conversely, the number of positive samples obtained for specific food matrices minimally influenced the predictions (2.9%). Spatiotemporal predictions for 2019 showed sensitivity and specificity levels of 46.5% (due to the lack of some infection hotspots) and 78.5%, respectively. This study demonstrates the added value of integrating data from human and veterinary health services to develop predictive models of human salmonellosis occurrence, providing early warnings useful for mitigating foodborne disease impacts on public health.

Metric evaluation of the anterior nasal spine to estimate sex and population group in South African individuals.

INTRODUCTION: The anterior nasal spine is a pointed, midline projection of the maxilla. This bony structure dictates the overlying soft tissues providing the phenotypic features of the nose and upper lip and determines the differences in the mid-face morphology. Little data is available on the metric features of the Anterior nasal spine (ANS). This study aimed to perform metric evaluations of the ANS of white and black South African males and females to ascertain if morphological variations exist and if the differences are viable for the use in sex and population identification. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The sample included 100 CBCT images for each population and sex group. Linear and angular measurements of the ANS were recorded in both the sagittal and axial planes. RESULTS: Classification decision trees (pruned) were fitted to ascertain the relationship between population group, sex and the ANS measurements including and excluding age. For population group, all the ANS measurements were statistically significant for females but in males, all the ANS measurements were significant when performed individually. However, when fitted to the classification tree, Sagittal 2 did not show any statistical significance. When considering sex, only 2 of the ANS measurements (Sagittal 2 and Axial 1) were found to be significant. The results did not differ significantly when comparing the decision trees including and excluding age. CONCLUSIONS: White South African individuals presented with a longer ANS that produced a more acute angle whereas black South African individuals presented with a shorter ANS and a more obtuse angle. Additionally, males presented with a longer ANS compared to females. ANS measurements were found to be more relevant for population discernment than for sex.

Decision tree analysis for age estimation in living individuals: integrating cervical and dental radiographic evaluations within a South African population.

Age estimation in living individuals around the age of 18 years is medico-legally important in undocumented migrant cases and in countries like South Africa where many individuals are devoid of identification documents. Establishing whether an individual is younger than 18 years largely influences the legal procedure that should be followed in dealing with an undocumented individual. The aim of this study was to combine dental third molar and anterior inferior apophysis ossification data for purposes of age estimation, by applying a decision tree analysis. A sample comprising of 871 black South African individuals (n = 446 males, 425 = females) with ages ranging between 15 and 24 years was analyzed using panoramic and cephalometric radiographs. Variables related to the left upper and lower third molars and cervical vertebral ring apophysis ossification of C2, C3, and C4 vertebrae analyzed in previous studies were combined in a multifactorial approach. The data were analyzed using a pruned decision tree function for classification. Male and female groups were handled separately as a statistically significant difference was found between the sexes in the original studies. A test sample of 30 individuals was used to determine if this approach could be used with confidence in estimating age of living individuals. The outcomes obtained from the test sample indicated a close correlation between the actual ages (in years and months) and the predicted ages (in years only), demonstrating an average age difference of 0.47 years between the corresponding values. This method showed that the application of decision tree analysis using the combination of third molar and cervical vertebral development is usable and potentially valuable in this application.

Outcome risk model development for heterogeneity of treatment effect analyses: a comparison of non-parametric machine learning methods and semi-parametric statistical methods.

BACKGROUND: In randomized clinical trials, treatment effects may vary, and this possibility is referred to as heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE). One way to quantify HTE is to partition participants into subgroups based on individual's risk of experiencing an outcome, then measuring treatment effect by subgroup. Given the limited availability of externally validated outcome risk prediction models, internal models (created using the same dataset in which heterogeneity of treatment analyses also will be performed) are commonly developed for subgroup identification. We aim to compare different methods for generating internally developed outcome risk prediction models for subject partitioning in HTE analysis. METHODS: Three approaches were selected for generating subgroups for the 2,441 participants from the United States enrolled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomized controlled trial. An extant proportional hazards-based outcomes predictive risk model developed on the overall ASPREE cohort of 19,114 participants was identified and was used to partition United States' participants by risk of experiencing a composite outcome of death, dementia, or persistent physical disability. Next, two supervised non-parametric machine learning outcome classifiers, decision trees and random forests, were used to develop multivariable risk prediction models and partition participants into subgroups with varied risks of experiencing the composite outcome. Then, we assessed how the partitioning from the proportional hazard model compared to those generated by the machine learning models in an HTE analysis of the 5-year absolute risk reduction (ARR) and hazard ratio for aspirin vs. placebo in each subgroup. Cochran's Q test was used to detect if ARR varied significantly by subgroup. RESULTS: The proportional hazard model was used to generate 5 subgroups using the quintiles of the estimated risk scores; the decision tree model was used to generate 6 subgroups (6 automatically determined tree leaves); and the random forest model was used to generate 5 subgroups using the quintiles of the prediction probability as risk scores. Using the semi-parametric proportional hazards model, the ARR at 5 years was 15.1% (95% CI 4.0-26.3%) for participants with the highest 20% of predicted risk. Using the random forest model, the ARR at 5 years was 13.7% (95% CI 3.1-24.4%) for participants with the highest 20% of predicted risk. The highest outcome risk group in the decision tree model also exhibited a risk reduction, but the confidence interval was wider (5-year ARR = 17.0%, 95% CI= -5.4-39.4%). Cochran's Q test indicated ARR varied significantly only by subgroups created using the proportional hazards model. The hazard ratio for aspirin vs. placebo therapy did not significantly vary by subgroup in any of the models. The highest risk groups for the proportional hazards model and random forest model contained 230 participants each, while the highest risk group in the decision tree model contained 41 participants. CONCLUSIONS: The choice of technique for internally developed models for outcome risk subgroups influences HTE analyses. The rationale for the use of a particular subgroup determination model in HTE analyses needs to be explicitly defined based on desired levels of explainability (with features importance), uncertainty of prediction, chances of overfitting, and assumptions regarding the underlying data structure. Replication of these analyses using data from other mid-size clinical trials may help to establish guidance for selecting an outcomes risk prediction modelling technique for HTE analyses.

Predicting the immunomodulatory activity of probiotic lactic acid bacteria using supervised machine learning in a Cornu aspersum snail model.

In the process of screening for probiotic strains, there are no clearly established bacterial phenotypic markers which could be used for the prediction of their in vivo mechanism of action. In this work, we demonstrate for the first time that Machine Learning (ML) methods can be used for accurately predicting the in vivo immunomodulatory activity of probiotic strains based on their cell surface phenotypic features using a snail host-microbe interaction model. A broad range of snail gut presumptive probiotics, including 240 new lactic acid bacterial strains (Lactobacillus, Leuconostoc, Lactococcus, and Enterococcus), were isolated and characterized based on their capacity to withstand snails' gastrointestinal defense barriers, such as the pedal mucus, gastric mucus, gastric juices, and acidic pH, in association with their cell surface hydrophobicity, autoaggregation, and biofilm formation ability. The implemented ML pipeline predicted with high accuracy (88 %) strains with a strong capacity to enhance chemotaxis and phagocytic activity of snails' hemolymph cells, while also revealed bacterial autoaggregation and cell surface hydrophobicity as the most important parameters that significantly affect host immune responses. The results show that ML approaches may be useful to derive a predictive understanding of host-probiotic interactions, while also highlighted the use of snails as an efficient animal model for screening presumptive probiotic strains in the light of their interaction with cellular innate immune responses.

Thyroglobulin measurement is the most powerful outcome predictor in differentiated thyroid cancer: a decision tree analysis in a European multicenter series.

OBJECTIVES: An accurate prognostic assessment is pivotal to adequately inform and individualize follow-up and management of patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). We aimed to develop a predictive model for recurrent disease in DTC patients treated by surgery and 131I by adopting a decision tree model. METHODS: Age, sex, histology, T stage, N stage, risk classes, remnant estimation, thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), thyroglobulin (Tg), administered 131I activities and post-therapy whole body scintigraphy (PT-WBS) were identified as potential predictors and put into regression algorithm (conditional inference tree, c-tree) to develop a risk stratification model for predicting persistent/recurrent disease over time. RESULTS: The PT-WBS pattern identified a partition of the population into two subgroups (PT-WBS positive or negative for distant metastases). Patients with distant metastases exhibited lower disease-free survival (either structural, DFS-SD, and biochemical, DFS-BD, disease) compared to those without metastases. Meanwhile, the latter were further stratified into three risk subgroups based on their Tg values. Notably, Tg values >63.1 ng/mL predicted a shorter survival time, with increased DFS-SD for Tg values <63.1 and <8.9 ng/mL, respectively. A comparable model was generated for biochemical disease (BD), albeit different DFS were predicted by slightly different Tg cutoff values (41.2 and 8.8 ng/mL) compared to DFS-SD. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a simple, accurate and reproducible decision tree model able to provide reliable information on the probability of structurally and/or biochemically persistent/relapsed DTC after a TTA. In turn, the provided information is highly relevant to refine the initial risk stratification, identify patients at higher risk of reduced structural and biochemical DFS, and modulate additional therapies and the relative follow-up.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of hepatitis E vaccination strategies among patients with chronic hepatitis B in China.

AIM: This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of hepatitis E vaccination strategies in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. METHODS: Based on the societal perspective, the cost-effectiveness of three hepatitis E vaccination strategies-vaccination without screening, screening-based vaccination, and no vaccination-among CHB patients was evaluated using a decision tree-Markov model, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated. Values for treatment costs and health utilities were estimated from a prior investigation on disease burden, and values for transition probabilities and vaccination-related costs were obtained from previous studies and government agencies. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken for assessing model uncertainties. RESULTS: It was estimated that CHB patients superinfected with hepatitis E virus (HEV) incurred significantly longer disease course, higher economic burden, and more health loss compared to those with HEV infection alone (all p < 0.05). The ICERs of vaccination without screening and screening-based vaccination compared to no vaccination were 41,843.01 yuan/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and 29,147.32 yuan/QALY, respectively, both lower than China's per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018. The screening-based vaccination reduced the cost and gained more QALYs than vaccination without screening. One-way sensitivity analyses revealed that vaccine price, vaccine protection rate, and decay rate of vaccine protection had the greatest impact on the cost-effectiveness analysis. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the base-case results, and if the willingness-to-pay value reached per-capita GDP, the probability that screening-based vaccination would be cost-effective was approaching 100%. CONCLUSIONS: The disease burden in CHB patients superinfected with HEV is relatively heavy in China, and the screening-based hepatitis E vaccination strategy for CHB patients is the most cost-effective option.

Characterizing the post-traumatic growth trajectory in gastric cancer survivors: a population-based longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVES: Post-traumatic growth can improve the quality of life of cancer survivors. The objective of this study was to investigate post-traumatic growth heterogeneity trajectory in perioperative gastric cancer survivors, and to identify characteristics that predict membership for each trajectory. METHODS: Gastric cancer survivors (n = 403) were recruited before surgery, their baseline assessment (including post-traumatic growth and related characteristics) was completed, and post-traumatic growth levels were followed up on the day they left the intensive care unit, at discharge, and 1 month after discharge. Latent growth mixture mode was used to identify the heterogeneous trajectory of post-traumatic growth, and the core predictors of trajectory subtypes were explored using a decision tree model. RESULTS: Three post-traumatic growth development trajectories were identified among gastric cancer survivors: stable high of PTG group (20.6%), fluctuation of PTG group (44.4%), persistent low of PTG group (35.0%). The decision tree model showed anxiety, coping style, and psychological resilience-which was the primary predictor-might be used to predict the PTG trajectory subtypes of gastric cancer survivors. CONCLUSIONS: There was considerable variability in the experience of post-traumatic growth among gastric cancer survivors. Recognition of high-risk gastric cancer survivors who fall into the fluctuation or persistent low of PTG group and provision of psychological resilience-centered support might allow medical professionals to improve patients' post-traumatic growth and mitigate the impact of negative outcomes.

A multi-resolution ensemble model of three decision-tree-based algorithms to predict daily NO2 concentration in France 2005-2022.

Understanding and managing the health effects of Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) requires high resolution spatiotemporal exposure maps. Here, we developed a multi-stage multi-resolution ensemble model that predicts daily NO2 concentration across continental France from 2005 to 2022. Innovations of this work include the computation of daily predictions at a 200 m resolution in large urban areas and the use of a spatio-temporal blocking procedure to avoid data leakage and ensure fair performance estimation. Predictions were obtained after three cascading stages of modeling: (1) predicting NO2 total column density from Ozone Monitoring Instrument satellite; (2) predicting daily NO2 concentrations at a 1 km spatial resolution using a large set of potential predictors such as predictions obtained from stage 1, land-cover and road traffic data; and (3) predicting residuals from stage 2 models at a 200 m resolution in large urban areas. The latter two stages used a generalized additive model to ensemble predictions of three decision-tree algorithms (random forest, extreme gradient boosting and categorical boosting). Cross-validated performances of our ensemble models were overall very good, with a ten-fold cross-validated R2 for the 1 km model of 0.83, and of 0.69 for the 200 m model. All three basis learners participated in the ensemble predictions to various degrees depending on time and space. In sum, our multi-stage approach was able to predict daily NO2 concentrations with a relatively low error. Ensembling the predictions maximizes the chance of obtaining accurate values if one basis learner fails in a specific area or at a particular time, by relying on the other learners. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study aiming to predict NO2 concentrations in France with such a high spatiotemporal resolution, large spatial extent, and long temporal coverage. Exposure estimates are available to investigate NO2 health effects in epidemiological studies.

Coastal Flood risk assessment using ensemble multi-criteria decision-making with machine learning approaches.

Coastal areas are at a higher risk of flooding, and novel changes in the climate are induced to raise the sea level. Flood acceleration and frequency have increased recently because of unplanned infrastructural conveniences and anthropogenic activities. Therefore, the assessment of flood susceptibility mapping is considered the most significant flood management model. In this paper, flood susceptibility identification is performed by applying the innovative Multi-criteria decision-making model (MCDM) called Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) by ensembles with Support vector machine (AHP-SVM) and Decision Tree (AHP-DT). This model combines two Representation concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios such as RCP 2.6 & RCP 8.5. The factors influencing the coastal flooding in Bandar Abbas, Iran, identified through Flood susceptibility mapping. Multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) has been applied to evaluate the Coastal flood conditioning factors, and ensemble machine learning (ML) approaches are employed for Coastal risk factor (CRF) prediction and classification. The statistical variances are measured through Friedman and Wilcoxon signed rank tests and statistical metrics such as Accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Among the models, AHP-DT obtained an improved AUC value of ROC as 0.95. After applying the ML models, the northern and western park of Raidak Basin River recognises very low and low flood susceptibility because of their topographic characteristics. The eastern part of the middle section fell very high and high CFSM. Observed from this result analysis, the people living nearer to the coastline are distributed by the low to medium exposure in the region of the west and middle of the considered study area. The results of this study can help decision-makers take necessary risk reduction approaches in the high-risk flooding zones of the coastal system.