Increased variance in temperature and lag effects alter phenological responses to rapid warming in a subarctic plant community.

Summer temperature on the Cape Churchill Peninsula (Manitoba, Canada) has increased rapidly over the past 75 years, and flowering phenology of the plant community is advanced in years with warmer temperatures (higher cumulative growing degree days). Despite this, there has been no overall shift in flowering phenology over this period. However, climate change has also resulted in increased interannual variation in temperature; if relationships between phenology and temperature are not linear, an increase in temperature variance may interact with an increase in the mean to alter how community phenology changes over time. In our system, the relationship between phenology and temperature was log-linear, resulting in a steeper slope at the cold end of the temperature spectrum than at the warm end. Because below-average temperatures had a greater impact on phenology than above-average temperatures, the long-term advance in phenology was reduced. In addition, flowering phenology in a given year was delayed if summer temperatures were high the previous year or 2 years earlier (lag effects), further reducing the expected advance over time. Phenology of early-flowering plants was negatively affected only by temperatures in the previous year, and that of late-flowering plants primarily by temperatures 2 years earlier. Subarctic plants develop leaf primordia one or more years prior to flowering (preformation); these results suggest that temperature affects the development of flower primordia during this preformation period. Together, increased variance in temperature and lag effects interacted with a changing mean to reduce the expected phenological advance by 94%, a magnitude large enough to account for our inability to detect a significant advance over time. We conclude that changes in temperature variability and lag effects can alter trends in plant responses to a warming climate and that predictions for changes in plant phenology under future warming scenarios should incorporate such effects.

Solute depletion and reduced hydrological connectivity in subarctic patterned peatlands disturbed by mine dewatering.

Patterned bog and fen peatlands of the Hudson Bay Lowlands, which form one of the largest continuous peatland complexes in the world, are globally significant stores of carbon and important water conveyance and storage features on the landscape. However, expansion of resource exploration and extraction combined with warmer temperatures associated with climate change may result in reduced water availability to these peatland complexes, potentially disrupting peatland hydrological connectivity and hydrogeochemical cycling. A case study on the effects of reduced water availability on peatland hydrological and geochemical function was conducted near the De Beers Victor Diamond Mine, located 90 km west of Attawapiskat. Active dewatering occurred here over a 12-year period (2007-2019) during which a 1.5 km transect was monitored within the mine impacted radius. Hydrological (streamflow and groundwater levels) and chemical (porewater and surface water samples) parameters were collected at the impacted transect and two nearby unimpacted reference sites. Results demonstrated that impacted peatlands had depleted water storage and spent an average of 50 % less time hydrologically connected than unimpacted peatlands. By the end of the study period, increasingly depleted water storage within the dewatering radius resulted in disproportionately lower flowrates in two tributaries downgradient of the mine-impacted peatlands when compared with the reference sites. Moreover, diminished water storage allowed solute-depleted precipitation to reach greater depths within the peat profile, while stronger downwards gradients suppressed upwards flow into fens, limiting the amount of solute-enriched water reaching the surface. The recovery of fen solute concentrations will be a prolonged process (i.e., decades to centuries) due to the slow rate of upwards diffusion, which may result in the transition of these systems towards ombrotrophic bogs. Further studies should focus on the susceptibility of these impacted systems to further reductions in water availability due to climate change.

Distribution and diversity of diatom assemblages in surficial sediments of shallow lakes in Wapusk National Park (Manitoba, Canada) region of the Hudson Bay Lowlands.

The hydrology of shallow lakes (and ponds) located in the western Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) is sensitive to climate warming and associated permafrost thaw. However, their biological characteristics are poorly known, which hampers effective aquatic ecosystem monitoring. Located in northern Manitoba along the southwestern coast of Hudson Bay, Wapusk National Park (WNP) encompasses numerous shallow lakes representative of the subarctic zone. We analyzed the distribution and diversity of diatom (microscopic algae; class Bacillariophyceae) assemblages in surficial sediments of 33 lakes located in three different ecozones spanning a vegetation gradient, from NE to SW: the Coastal Fen (CF), the Interior Peat Plateau (IPP), and the Boreal Spruce Forest (BSF). We found significant differences (P < 0.05) in diatom community composition between CF and IPP lakes, and CF and BSF lakes, but not between IPP and BSF lakes. These results are consistent with water chemistry measurements, which indicated distinct limnological conditions for CF lakes. Diatom communities in CF lakes were generally dominated by alkaliphilous taxa typical of waters with medium to high conductivity, such as Nitzschia denticula. In contrast, several IPP and BSF lakes were dominated by acidophilous and circumneutral diatom taxa with preference for low conductivity (e.g., Tabellaria flocculosa, Eunotia mucophila, E. necompacta var. vixcompacta). This exploratory survey provides a first detailed inventory of the diatom assemblages in the WNP region needed for monitoring programs to detect changes in shallow lake ecosystems and ecozonal shifts in response to climate variations.

Limnological regime shifts caused by climate warming and Lesser Snow Goose population expansion in the western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Manitoba, Canada).

Shallow lakes are dominant features in subarctic and Arctic landscapes and are responsive to multiple stressors, which can lead to rapid changes in limnological regimes with consequences for aquatic resources. We address this theme in the coastal tundra region of Wapusk National Park, western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Canada), where climate has warmed during the past century and the Lesser Snow Goose (LSG; Chen caerulescens caerulescens) population has grown rapidly during the past ∽40 years. Integration of limnological and paleolimnological analyses documents profound responses of productivity, nutrient cycling, and aquatic habitat to warming at three ponds ("WAP 12", "WAP 20", and "WAP 21″), and to LSG disturbance at the two ponds located in an active nesting area (WAP 20, WAP 21). Based on multiparameter analysis of (210)Pb-dated sediment records from all three ponds, a regime shift occurred between 1875 and 1900 CE marked by a transition from low productivity, turbid, and nutrient-poor conditions of the Little Ice Age to conditions of higher productivity, lower nitrogen availability, and the development of benthic biofilm habitat as a result of climate warming. Beginning in the mid-1970s, sediment records from WAP 20 and WAP 21 reveal a second regime shift characterized by accelerated productivity and increased nitrogen availability. Coupled with 3 years of limnological data, results suggest that increased productivity at WAP 20 and WAP 21 led to atmospheric CO2 invasion to meet algal photosynthetic demand. This limnological regime shift is attributed to an increase in the supply of catchment-derived nutrients from the arrival of LSG and their subsequent disturbance to the landscape. Collectively, findings discriminate the consequences of warming and LSG disturbance on tundra ponds from which we identify a suite of sensitive limnological and paleolimnological measures that can be utilized to inform aquatic ecosystem monitoring.