Excess Mortality and Loss of Life Expectancy After Myocardial Infarction: A Registry-Based Matched Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The effect of myocardial infarction (MI) on life expectancy is difficult to study because the prevalence of MI hinders direct comparison with the life expectancy of the general population. We sought to assess this in relation to age, sex, and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) by comparing individuals with MI with matched comparators without previous MI. METHODS: We included patients with a first MI between 1991 and 2022 from the nationwide SWEDEHEART registry (Swedish Web-System for Enhancement and Development of Evidence-Based Care in Heart Disease Evaluated According to Recommended Therapies), each matched with up to 5 comparators on age, sex, and region of residence. Flexible parametric survival models were used to estimate excess mortality risk and mean loss of life expectancy (LOLE) depending on index year, age, sex, and LVEF, and adjusted for differences in characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 335 748 cases were matched to 1 625 396 comparators. A higher LOLE was observed in younger individuals, women, and those with reduced LVEF (<50%). In 2022, the unadjusted and adjusted mean LOLE spanned from 11.1 and 9.5 years in 50-year-old women with reduced LVEF to 5 and 3.7 months in 80-year-old men with preserved LVEF. Between 1992 and 2022, the adjusted mean LOLE decreased by 36% to 55%: from 4.4 to 2.0 years and from 3.3 to 1.9 years in 50-year-old women and men, respectively, and from 1.7 to 1.0 years and from 1.4 to 0.9 years in 80-year-old women and men, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: LOLE is higher in younger individuals, women, and those with reduced LVEF, but is attenuated when adjusting for comorbidities and risk factors. Advances in MI treatment during the past 30 years have almost halved LOLE, with no clear sign of leveling off to a plateau.

Helicobacter pylori Treatment and Gastric Cancer Risk After Endoscopic Resection of Dysplasia: A Nationwide Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The study investigated the association between Helicobacter pylori treatment and the risk of gastric cancer after endoscopic resection of gastric dysplasia. METHODS: Patients who received endoscopic resection for gastric dysplasia between 2010 and 2020 from Korean nationwide insurance data were included. We verified the occurrence of new-onset gastric cancer and metachronous gastric neoplasm, which encompasses both cancer and dysplasia, >1 year after the index endoscopic resection. Newly diagnosed gastric cancer ≥3 years and ≥5 years was regarded as late-onset gastric cancer. A multivariable Cox regression model with H pylori treatment status as a time-dependent covariate was used to determine the risk of gastric cancer and metachronous gastric neoplasms. RESULTS: Gastric dysplasia in 69,722 patients was treated with endoscopy, and 49.5% were administered H pylori therapy. During the median 5.6 years of follow-up, gastric cancer developed in 2406 patients and metachronous gastric neoplasms developed in 3342 patients. Receiving H pylori therapy was closely related to lower gastric cancer risk (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80-0.96). H pylori treatment also significantly decreased metachronous gastric neoplasm development (aHR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.70-0.82). Furthermore, H pylori therapy showed a prominent protective effect for late-onset gastric cancer development at ≥3 years (aHR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.75-0.94) and ≥5 years (aHR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.68-0.95). CONCLUSIONS: In this nationwide cohort, H pylori therapy after endoscopic resection of gastric dysplasia was associated with a reduced risk of gastric cancer and metachronous gastric neoplasm occurrence.

No association between long-chain n-3 fatty acid intake during pregnancy and risk of type 1 diabetes in offspring in two large Scandinavian pregnancy cohorts.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to investigate whether higher dietary intake of marine n-3 fatty acids during pregnancy is associated with a lower risk of type 1 diabetes in children. METHODS: The Danish National Birth Cohort (DNBC) and the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) together include 153,843 mother-child pairs with prospectively collected data on eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) intake during pregnancy from validated food frequency questionnaires. Type 1 diabetes diagnosis in children (n=634) was ascertained from national diabetes registries. RESULTS: There was no association between the sum of EPA and DHA intake during pregnancy and risk of type 1 diabetes in offspring (pooled HR per g/day of intake: 1.00, 95% CI 0.88, 1.14), with consistent results for both the MoBa and the DNBC. Robustness analyses gave very similar results. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Initiation of a trial of EPA and DHA during pregnancy to prevent type 1 diabetes in offspring should not be prioritised.

Severe Infection and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: A Multicohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The excess risk of cardiovascular disease associated with a wide array of infectious diseases is unknown. We quantified the short- and long-term risk of major cardiovascular events in people with severe infection and estimated the population-attributable fraction. METHODS: We analyzed data from 331 683 UK Biobank participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline (2006-2010) and replicated our main findings in an independent population from 3 prospective cohort studies comprising 271 329 community-dwelling participants from Finland (baseline 1986-2005). Cardiovascular risk factors were measured at baseline. We diagnosed infectious diseases (the exposure) and incident major cardiovascular events after infections, defined as myocardial infarction, cardiac death, or fatal or nonfatal stroke (the outcome) from linkage of participants to hospital and death registers. We computed adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for infectious diseases as short- and long-term risk factors for incident major cardiovascular events. We also calculated population-attributable fractions for long-term risk. RESULTS: In the UK Biobank (mean follow-up, 11.6 years), 54 434 participants were hospitalized for an infection, and 11 649 had an incident major cardiovascular event at follow-up. Relative to participants with no record of infectious disease, those who were hospitalized experienced increased risk of major cardiovascular events, largely irrespective of the type of infection. This association was strongest during the first month after infection (HR, 7.87 [95% CI, 6.36-9.73]), but remained elevated during the entire follow-up (HR, 1.47 [95% CI, 1.40-1.54]). The findings were similar in the replication cohort (HR, 7.64 [95% CI, 5.82-10.03] during the first month; HR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.34-1.48] during mean follow-up of 19.2 years). After controlling for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, the population-attributable fraction for severe infections and major cardiovascular events was 4.4% in the UK Biobank and 6.1% in the replication cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Infections severe enough to require hospital treatment were associated with increased risks for major cardiovascular disease events immediately after hospitalization. A small excess risk was also observed in the long-term, but residual confounding cannot be excluded.

Stages of Valvular Heart Disease Among Older Adults in the Community: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist on American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association valvular heart disease (VHD) stage prevalence, progression, and association with incident cardiovascular diseases in late life. METHODS: Participants in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities), a prospective community-based cohort study, underwent protocol echocardiography at ARIC visits 5 (2011-2013) and 7 (2018-2019), and their aortic stenosis, aortic regurgitation, mitral stenosis, and mitral regurgitation stage were defined according to American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines. The overall VHD stage prevalence at visit 5 was measured. The associations between VHD stages and incident adjudicated death, heart failure, coronary heart disease, stroke, and atrial fibrillation were assessed with Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for age, sex, race, hypertension, diabetes, prior myocardial infarction, heart failure, body mass index, study center, systolic blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and low-density lipoprotein at visit 5. Longitudinal changes in VHD stage prevalence over ≈6 years were estimated with inverse probability of attrition weights to account for participant attrition. RESULTS: Among 6118 ARIC participants, the mean±SD age was 76±5 years, 42% were male, and 22% reported Black race. Stage A VHD was present in 39%, stage B in 17%, and stage C/D in 1.1%;, 0.7% had previously undergone valve replacement or repair. A graded association was observed between stage A, B, and C/D VHD and risk of all-cause mortality, incident heart failure, incident atrial fibrillation, and incident coronary heart disease, but not incident stroke. Similar findings were observed for stages of each valvular lesion individually. During the 6.6 years (interquartile range, 6.1-7.0 years) between visits 5 and 7 (mean age, 81±4 years), the prevalence of freedom from VHD stage decreased from 43% to 24%, whereas the prevalence of stage C/D VHD increased from 1% to 7%. CONCLUSIONS: Subclinical VHD is common in older adults, with 39% at risk (stage A) and 17% with progressive VHD (stage B), and is independently associated with risk of incident cardiovascular events. VHD stages progress over 6 years in late life, with a several-fold increase in prevalence of severe VHD (stage C/D), highlighting the public health importance of interventions to mitigate VHD progression.

Final Study Report of Andexanet Alfa for Major Bleeding With Factor Xa Inhibitors.

BACKGROUND: Andexanet alfa is a modified recombinant inactive factor Xa (FXa) designed to reverse FXa inhibitors. ANNEXA-4 (Andexanet Alfa, a Novel Antidote to the Anticoagulation Effects of Factor Xa Inhibitors) was a multicenter, prospective, phase-3b/4, single-group cohort study that evaluated andexanet alfa in patients with acute major bleeding. The results of the final analyses are presented. METHODS: Patients with acute major bleeding within 18 hours of FXa inhibitor administration were enrolled. Co-primary end points were anti-FXa activity change from baseline during andexanet alfa treatment and excellent or good hemostatic efficacy, defined by a scale used in previous reversal studies, at 12 hours. The efficacy population included patients with baseline anti-FXa activity levels above predefined thresholds (≥75 ng/mL for apixaban and rivaroxaban, ≥40 ng/mL for edoxaban, and ≥0.25 IU/mL for enoxaparin; reported in the same units used for calibrators) who were adjudicated as meeting major bleeding criteria (modified International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis definition). The safety population included all patients. Major bleeding criteria, hemostatic efficacy, thrombotic events (stratified by occurring before or after restart of either prophylactic [ie, a lower dose, for prevention rather than treatment] or full-dose oral anticoagulation), and deaths were assessed by an independent adjudication committee. Median endogenous thrombin potential at baseline and across the follow-up period was a secondary outcome. RESULTS: There were 479 patients enrolled (mean age, 78 years; 54% male; 86% White); 81% were anticoagulated for atrial fibrillation, and the median time was 11.4 hours since last dose, with 245 (51%) on apixaban, 176 (37%) on rivaroxaban, 36 (8%) on edoxaban, and 22 (5%) on enoxaparin. Bleeding was predominantly intracranial (n=331 [69%]) or gastrointestinal (n=109 [23%]). In evaluable apixaban patients (n=172), median anti-FXa activity decreased from 146.9 ng/mL to 10.0 ng/mL (reduction, 93% [95% CI, 94-93]); in rivaroxaban patients (n=132), it decreased from 214.6 ng/mL to 10.8 ng/mL (94% [95% CI, 95-93]); in edoxaban patients (n=28), it decreased from 121.1 ng/mL to 24.4 ng/mL (71% [95% CI, 82-65); and in enoxaparin patients (n=17), it decreased from 0.48 IU/mL to 0.11 IU/mL (75% [95% CI, 79-67]). Excellent or good hemostasis occurred in 274 of 342 evaluable patients (80% [95% CI, 75-84]). In the safety population, thrombotic events occurred in 50 (10%) patients; in 16 patients, these occurred during treatment with prophylactic anticoagulation that began after the bleeding event. No thrombotic episodes occurred after oral anticoagulation restart. Specific to certain populations, reduction of anti-FXa activity from baseline to nadir significantly predicted hemostatic efficacy in patients with intracranial hemorrhage (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.62 [95% CI, 0.54-0.70]) and correlated with lower mortality in patients <75 years of age (adjusted P=0.022; unadjusted P=0.003). Median endogenous thrombin potential was within the normal range by the end of andexanet alfa bolus through 24 hours for all FXa inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with major bleeding associated with the use of FXa inhibitors, treatment with andexanet alfa reduced anti-FXa activity and was associated with good or excellent hemostatic efficacy in 80% of patients. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT02329327.

Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Is Predominantly Associated With Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Events in Patients With Evidence of Coronary Atherosclerosis: The Western Denmark Heart Registry.

BACKGROUND: Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is an important causal risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, a sizable proportion of middle-aged individuals with elevated LDL-C level have not developed coronary atherosclerosis as assessed by coronary artery calcification (CAC). Whether presence of CAC modifies the association of LDL-C with ASCVD risk is unknown. We evaluated the association of LDL-C with future ASCVD events in patients with and without CAC. METHODS: The study included 23 132 consecutive symptomatic patients evaluated for coronary artery disease using coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) from the Western Denmark Heart Registry, a seminational, multicenter-based registry with longitudinal registration of patient and procedure data. We assessed the association of LDL-C level obtained before CTA with ASCVD (myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke) events occurring during follow-up stratified by CAC>0 versus CAC=0 using Cox regression models adjusted for baseline characteristics. Outcomes were identified through linkage among national registries covering all hospitals in Denmark. We replicated our results in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute-funded Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4.3 years, 552 patients experienced a first ASCVD event. In the overall population, LDL-C (per 38.7 mg/dL increase) was associated with ASCVD events occurring during follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.14 [95% CI, 1.04-1.24]). When stratified by the presence or absence of baseline CAC, LDL-C was only associated with ASCVD in the 10 792/23 132 patients (47%) with CAC>0 (aHR, 1.18 [95% CI, 1.06-1.31]); no association was observed among the 12 340/23 132 patients (53%) with CAC=0 (aHR, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.87-1.18]). Similarly, a very high LDL-C level (>193 mg/dL) versus LDL-C <116 mg/dL was associated with ASCVD in patients with CAC>0 (aHR, 2.42 [95% CI, 1.59-3.67]) but not in those without CAC (aHR, 0.92 [0.48-1.79]). In patients with CAC=0, diabetes, current smoking, and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were associated with future ASCVD events. The principal findings were replicated in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. CONCLUSIONS: LDL-C appears to be almost exclusively associated with ASCVD events over ≈5 years of follow-up in middle-aged individuals with versus without evidence of coronary atherosclerosis. This information is valuable for individualized risk assessment among middle-aged people with or without coronary atherosclerosis.

Association Between Frequency of Rehabilitation Therapy and Long-Term Mortality After Stroke: A Nationwide Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have demonstrated conflicting results regarding the effects of rehabilitation therapy on poststroke mortality. We aimed to investigate the association between rehabilitation therapy, including both inpatient and outpatient treatment, within the first 6 months after stroke and long-term all-cause mortality in patients with stroke using the Korean National Health Insurance System data. METHODS: A total of 10 974 patients newly diagnosed with stroke using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, codes (I60-I64) between 2003 and 2019 were enrolled and followed up for all-cause mortality until 2019. Follow-up for mortality began 6 months after the index event. Poststroke patients were categorized into 3 groups according to the frequency of rehabilitation therapy: no rehabilitation therapy, ≤40 sessions and >40 sessions. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the mortality risk according to rehabilitation therapy stratified by disability severity measured based on activities of daily living 6 months after stroke onset. RESULTS: Within 6 months after stroke, 6738 patients (61.4%) did not receive rehabilitation therapy, whereas 2122 (19.3%) received ≤40 sessions and 2114 (19.3%) received >40 sessions of rehabilitation therapy. Higher frequency of rehabilitation therapy was associated with significantly lower poststroke mortality in comparison to no rehabilitation therapy (hazard ratio [HR], 0.88 [95% CI, 0.79-0.99]), especially among individuals with severe disability after stroke (mild to moderate: HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.77-1.35]; severe: HR, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.62-0.87]). In the context of stroke type, higher frequency of rehabilitation therapy was associated with reduced mortality rates compared with no rehabilitation therapy only in patients with hemorrhagic stroke (ischemic: HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.91-1.18]; hemorrhagic: HR, 0.60 [95% CI, 0.49-0.74]). CONCLUSIONS: We found a positive association between rehabilitation therapy within 6 months after stroke onset and long-term mortality in patients with stroke. A higher frequency of rehabilitation therapy would be recommended for poststroke patients, especially those with hemorrhagic stroke and severe disability.

Discordant High Remnant Cholesterol With LDL-C Increases the Risk of Stroke: A Chinese Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies focusing on assessing the effects of remnant cholesterol (RC) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) on stroke may not consider their mutual influence. We aimed to explore the associations of RC and discordant high RC with LDL-C with stroke, ischemic stroke (IS), and hemorrhagic stroke. METHODS: This prospective cohort study was conducted based on 3 cohorts of the China-PAR (Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China) project. RC was calculated as non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol minus LDL-C estimated by Martin/Hopkins equations. Concordant/discordant categories for RC versus LDL-C were determined based on cut-points of 130 mg/dL for LDL-C and equivalent percentile (32.50 mg/dL) for RC. Cox models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios and 95% CIs for incident stroke. RESULTS: Among 113 448 participants recruited at baseline, a total of 98 967 participants were eligible for the final analysis (mean age of 51.44 years; 40.45% were men). During 728 776.87 person-years of follow-up, 2859 stroke cases, 1811 IS cases, and 849 hemorrhagic stroke cases were observed. RC was positively associated with stroke and IS, but not hemorrhagic stroke, with adjusted hazard ratios (95% CIs) of 1.06 (1.02-1.10), 1.09 (1.04-1.13), and 0.95 (0.88-1.03) for per SD increase in RC. Compared with low LDL-C/low RC group, low LDL-C/high RC group had higher risks of stroke (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.02-1.30]) and IS (1.19, 1.03-1.38), while high LDL-C/low RC group had no increased risk of stroke (1.07 [0.95-1.20]) and IS (1.09 [0.94-1.25]). CONCLUSIONS: Higher RC was associated with increased risks of stroke and IS but not hemorrhagic stroke. Discordantly high RC, not discordantly high LDL-C, conferred higher risks of stroke and IS. Our findings support further lowering RC by interventions to reduce residual IS risk.

Net Clinical Benefit of Oral Anticoagulation Among Frail Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: Nationwide Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Frail people with atrial fibrillation are often undertreated with oral anticoagulants (OACs), and evidence for the net clinical benefit (NCB) of OAC is sparse. We, therefore, examined the risk of thromboembolic events, major bleeding, and NCB of anticoagulation treatment. METHODS: This was a nationwide cohort study including frail patients aged with incident atrial fibrillation between 2013 and 2018. Patients were categorized according to OAC treatment exposure. One-year risks of thromboembolic events and major bleeding were ascertained where death was treated as a competing risk. The NCB of anticoagulation was assessed by a bivariate trade-off between thromboembolism and bleeding. RESULTS: We identified 36 223 frail patients with atrial fibrillation (median age, 79 years; 50.5% female), of whom 61.8% started OAC therapy, while 38.2% were untreated despite indication for stroke prevention. At 1 year, the risk of thromboembolic events was 2.1% (95% CI, 1.8%-2.3%) among patients not receiving OAC versus 1.5% (95% CI, 1.4%-1.7%) in patients with OAC. The bleeding risk was 3.2% (95% CI, 2.9%-3.5%) among patients without OAC versus 3.5% (95% CI, 3.2%-3.8%) among anticoagulated patients. The NCB was 0.70% (95% CI, 0.32%-1.08%), suggesting a benefit of OAC treatment; however, the NCB declined with age and increasing frailty and was lowest among patients >75 years of age or with high frailty level. CONCLUSIONS: Frail patients with atrial fibrillation are often untreated with OAC in routine clinical care despite an indication for stroke prevention. The NCB balancing thromboembolic events and major bleeding was in favor of anticoagulation but decreased with advancing age and increasing frailty.

Long-Term Outcomes in Patients With Spontaneous Cerebellar Hemorrhage: An International Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in the cerebellum has a poor short-term prognosis, whereas data on the long-term case fatality and recurrent vascular events are sparse. Herewith, we aimed to assess the long-term case fatality and recurrence rate of vascular events after a first cerebellar ICH. METHODS: In this international cohort study, we included patients from 10 hospitals (the United States and Europe from 1997 to 2017) aged ≥18 years with a first spontaneous cerebellar ICH who were discharged alive. Data on long-term case fatality and recurrence of vascular events (recurrent ICH [supratentoria or infratentorial], ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or major vascular surgery) were collected for survival analysis and absolute event rate calculation. RESULTS: We included 405 patients with cerebellar ICH (mean age [SD], 72 [13] years, 49% female). The median survival time was 67 months (interquartile range, 23-100 months), with a cumulative survival rate of 34% at 10-year follow-up (median follow-up time per center ranged: 15-80 months). In the 347 patients with data on vascular events 92 events occurred in 78 patients, after initial cerebellar ICH: 31 (8.9%) patients had a recurrent ICH (absolute event rate, 1.8 per 100 patient-years [95% CI, 1.2-2.6]), 39 (11%) had an ischemic stroke (absolute event rate, 2.3 [95% CI, 1.6-3.2]), 13 (3.7%) had a myocardial infarction (absolute event rate, 0.8 [95% CI, 0.4-1.3]), and 5 (1.4%) underwent major vascular surgery (absolute event rate, 0.3 [95% CI, 0.1-0.7]). The median time to a first vascular event during follow-up was 27 months (interquartile range, 8.7-50 months), with a cumulative hazard of 47% at 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: The long-term prognosis of patients who survive a first spontaneous cerebellar ICH is poor and comparable to that of patients who survive a first supratentorial ICH. Further identification of patients at high risk of vascular events following the initial cerebellar ICH is needed. Including patients with cerebellar ICH in randomized controlled trials on secondary prevention of patients with ICH is warranted.

Head-to-head comparison of treatment sequences in advanced pancreatic cancer-Real-world data from the prospective German TPK clinical cohort study.

There are no clear guidelines regarding the optimal treatment sequence for advanced pancreatic cancer, as head-to-head phase III randomised trials are missing. We assess real-world effectiveness of three common sequential treatment strategies by emulating a hypothetical randomised trial. This analysis included 1551 patients with advanced pancreatic cancer from the prospective, clinical cohort study Tumour Registry Pancreatic Cancer receiving FOLFIRINOX (n = 613) or gemcitabine/nab-paclitaxel (GEMNAB; n = 938) as palliative first-line treatment. We used marginal structural modelling to compare overall survival (OS) and time to deterioration (TTD) of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) between three common first- to second-line treatment sequences, adjusting for time-varying potential confounding. The sequences were: FOLFIRINOX→GEMNAB, GEMNAB→FOLFOX/OFF and GEMNAB→nanoliposomal irinotecan (NALIRI) + 5-fluorouracil. Outcome was also calculated stratified by patients' prognostic risk according to the Pancreatic Cancer Score. Median OS and TTD of HRQoL independent of risk were 10.7 [8.9, 11.9] and 6.4 [4.8, 7.7] months for FOLFIRINOX→GEMNAB, 8.4 [7.4, 9.7] and 5.8 [4.6, 7.1] months for GEMNAB→FOLFOX/OFF and 8.9 [7.8, 10.4] and 4.6 [4.1, 6.1] months for GEMNAB→NALIRI+5-fluorouracil. Compared to FOLFIRINOX→GEMNAB, OS and TTD were worse for poor-risk patients with GEMNAB→FOLFOX/OFF (OS: HR 2.09 [1.47, 2.98]; TTD: HR 1.97 [1.19, 3.27]) and those with GEMNAB→NALIRI+5-fluorouracil (OS: HR 1.35, [0.76, 2.39]; TTD: HR 2.62 [1.56, 4.42]). Brackets denote 95%-confidence intervals. The estimated real-world effectiveness of the three treatment sequences evaluated were largely comparable. Poor-risk patients might benefit from intensified treatment with FOLFIRINOX→GEMNAB in terms of clinical and patient-reported outcomes. Future randomised trials on sequential treatments in advanced pancreatic cancer are warranted.

Patient-reported outcomes in advanced NSCLC before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: Real-world data from the German prospective CRISP Registry (AIO-TRK-0315).

Patients with lung cancer under treatment have been associated with a high risk of COVID-19 infection and potentially worse outcome, but real-world data on patient-reported outcomes (PROs) are rare. We assess patients' characteristics and PROs before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in an advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cohort in Germany. Patients with locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC from the prospective, multicentre, observational CRISP Registry (NCT02622581) were categorised as pre-pandemic (March 2019 to Feb 2020, n = 1621) and pandemic (March 2020 to Feb 2021, n = 1317). From baseline to month 15, patients' health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was assessed by FACT-L, anxiety and depression by PHQ-4. Association of pandemic status with time to deterioration (TTD) in QoL scales adjusted for potential covariates was estimated using Cox modelling. PROs were documented for 1166 patients (72%) in the pre-pandemic, 979 (74%) in the pandemic group. Almost 60% of patients were male, median age was 66 years, comorbidities occurred in 85%. Regarding HRQoL, mean-change-from-baseline plots hardly differed between both samples. Approximately 15%-21% of patients reported anxiety, about 19%-27% signs of depression. For the pandemic group, TTD was slightly, but statistically significantly, worse for the physical well-being-FACT-G subscale (HR 1.15 [95%CI 1.02-1.30]) and the anxiety-GAD-2 subscale (HR 1.14 [95%CI 1.01-1.29]). These prospectively collected real-world data provide valuable insights into PROs before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in advanced NSCLC. For the patients, the pandemic seemed to be less of a burden than the disease itself, as there was a considerable proportion of patients with anxiety and depression in both groups.

Cohort Studies Versus Case-Control Studies on Night-Shift Work and Cancer Risk: The Importance of Exposure Assessment.

It is a general assumption that the prospective cohort study design is the gold standard approach and is superior to the case-control study design in epidemiology. However, there may be exceptions if the exposure is complex and requires collection of detailed information on many different aspects. Night-shift work, which impairs circadian rhythms, is an example of such a complex occupational exposure and may increase the risks of breast, prostate, and colorectal cancer. So far, for logistical reasons, investigators in cohort studies have assessed shift work rather crudely, lacking information on full occupational history and relevant shift-work metrics, and have presented mostly null findings. On the other hand, most cancer case-control studies have assessed the lifetime occupational histories of participants, including collection of detailed night-shift work metrics (e.g., type, duration, intensity), and tend to show positive associations. In this commentary, we debate why cohort studies with weak exposure assessment and other limitations might not necessarily be the preferred or less biased approach in assessing the carcinogenicity of night-shift work. Furthermore, we propose that risk-of-bias assessment and comparison of associations between studies with low versus high risks of bias be considered in future synthesis of the evidence.

Site-specific cancer mortality after low level exposure to ionizing radiation: Findings from an update of the International Nuclear Workers Study (INWORKS).

A major update to the International Nuclear Workers Study was undertaken that allows us to report updated estimates of associations between radiation and site-specific solid cancer mortality. A cohort of 309,932 nuclear workers employed in France, the United Kingdom, and United States were monitored for external radiation exposure and associations with cancer mortality were quantified as the excess relative rate (ERR) per gray (Gy) using a maximum likelihood and a Markov chain Monte Carlo method (to stabilize estimates via a hierarchical regression). The analysis included 28,089 deaths due to solid cancer, the most common being lung, prostate, and colon cancer. Using maximum likelihood, positive estimates of ERR per Gy were obtained for stomach, colon, rectum, pancreas, peritoneum, larynx, lung, pleura/mesothelioma, bone and connective tissue, skin, prostate, testis, bladder, kidney, thyroid, and residual cancers; negative estimates of ERR per Gy were found cancers of oral cavity and pharynx, esophagus, and ovary. A hierarchical model stabilized site-specific estimates of association, including for lung (ERR per Gy=0.65; 95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.24, 1.07), prostate (ERR per Gy=0.44; 95% CrI: -0.06, 0.91), and colon cancer (ERR per Gy=0.53; 95% CrI: -0.07, 1.11). The results contribute evidence regarding associations between low dose radiation and cancer.

How the Environmental influences on Child Health Outcome (ECHO) Cohort can spur discoveries in environmental epidemiology.

NIH's Environmental influences on Child Health Outcome (ECHO) program is an innovative, large, collaborative research initiative whose mission is to enhance the health of children for generations to come. The goal of the ECHO Cohort is to examine effects of a broad array of early environmental exposures on child health and development. It includes longitudinal data and biospecimens from over 100,000 children and family members from diverse settings across the U.S. ECHO investigators have published collaborative analyses showing associations of environmental exposures--primarily in the developmentally sensitive pre-, peri-, and post-natal periods--with preterm birth and childhood asthma, obesity, neurodevelopment, and positive health. Investigators have addressed health disparities, joint effects of environmental and social determinants, and effects of mixtures of chemicals. The ECHO Cohort is now entering its second 7-year cycle (2023-2030), which will add the preconception period to its current focus on prenatal through adolescence. Through a controlled access public use database, ECHO makes its deidentified data available to the general scientific community. ECHO Cohort data provide opportunities to fill major knowledge gaps in in environmental epidemiology, and to inform policies, practices, and programs to enhance child health.

Joint Modeling of Gene-Environment Correlations and Interactions Using Polygenic Risk Scores in Case-Control Studies.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are rapidly emerging as a way to measure disease risk by aggregating multiple genetic variants. Understanding the interplay of PRS with environmental factors is critical for interpreting and applying PRS in a wide variety of settings. We develop an efficient method for simultaneously modeling gene-environment correlations and interactions using PRS in case control studies. We use a logistic-normal regression modeling framework to specify the disease risk and PRS distribution in the underlying population and propose joint inference across the two models using the retrospective likelihood of the case-control data. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the flexibility of the method in trading-off bias and efficiency for the estimation of various model parameters compared to the standard logistic regression or a case-only analysis for gene-environment interactions, or a control-only analysis for gene-environment correlations. Finally using simulated case-control data sets within the UK Biobank study, we demonstrate the power of our method for its ability to recover results from the full prospective cohort for the detection of an interaction between long-term oral contraceptive use and PRS on the risk of breast cancer. This method is computationally efficient and implemented in a user-friendly R package.

Limitations in the clinical utility of vaccine challenge responses in the evaluation of primary antibody deficiency including Common Variable Immunodeficiency Disorders.

Vaccine challenge responses are an integral component in the diagnostic evaluation of patients with primary antibody deficiency, including Common Variable Immunodeficiency Disorders (CVID). There are no studies of vaccine challenge responses in primary hypogammaglobulinemia patients not accepted for subcutaneous/intravenous immunoglobulin (SCIG/IVIG) replacement compared to those accepted for such treatment. Vaccine challenge responses in patients enrolled in two long-term prospective cohorts, the New Zealand Hypogammaglobulinemia Study (NZHS) and the New Zealand CVID study (NZCS), were compared in this analysis. Almost all patients in the more severely affected SCIG/IVIG treatment group achieved protective antibody levels to tetanus toxoid and H. influenzae type B (HIB). Although there was a highly significant statistical difference in vaccine responses to HIB, tetanus and diphtheria toxoids, there was substantial overlap in both groups. In contrast, there was no significant difference in Pneumococcal Polysaccharide antibody responses to Pneumovax® (PPV23). This analysis illustrates the limitations of evaluating vaccine challenge responses in patients with primary hypogammaglobulinemia to establish the diagnosis of CVID and in making decisions to treat with SCIG/IVIG. The conclusion from this study is that patients with symptoms attributable to primary hypogammaglobulinemia with reduced IgG should not be denied SCIG/IVIG if they have normal vaccine responses.

The Revised Kyoto Criteria and Risk of Malignancy Among Patients With Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The revised Kyoto guidelines have a new catalog of high-risk stigmata and worrisome features for the risk stratification of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). We aimed to validate the stratification system in terms of short- and long-term risks of pancreatic carcinoma. METHODS: We included 3336 patients diagnosed with IPMNs in 2000-2021 and examined short-term (≤6 months) and long-term risks of pancreatic carcinoma diagnosis. We used the multivariable competing-risks proportional hazards regression model to calculate subdistribution hazard ratios for long-term incidence of pancreatic carcinoma with adjustment for potential confounders. RESULTS: In short-term analyses, pancreatic carcinomas were prevalent predominantly in IPMNs with high-risk stigmata (49% vs 1.3% and 0.05% in IPMNs with worrisome features and no risk factors, respectively). In long-term analyses of worrisome features, the main pancreatic duct diameter of 5-9.9 mm, acute pancreatitis, and IPMN growth rate of 2.5 mm/y were associated with a high incidence with multivariable subdistribution hazard ratios of 3.46 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.04-5.89), 5.65 (95% CI, 1.86-17.2), and 3.83 (95% CI, 2.14-6.86), respectively. An increasing number of worrisome features at baseline was associated with a higher prevalence and incidence of pancreatic carcinoma (Ptrend < .001). Patients with 1, 2, and 3-4 worrisome features had multivariable subdistribution hazard ratios for pancreatic cancer incidence of 1.43 (95% CI, 0.93-2.19), 2.17 (95% CI, 1.17-4.05), and 10.1 (95% CI, 4.20-24.5), respectively (vs no positive feature). CONCLUSIONS: The revised Kyoto criteria stratify IPMN patients well in terms of the short- and long-term risks of pancreatic carcinoma diagnosis, potentially informing personalized patient management.

Comparing Time to Diagnosis and Treatment Between Younger and Older Adults With Colorectal Cancer: A Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Younger adults (aged <50 years) with colorectal cancer (CRC) may have prolonged delays to diagnosis and treatment that are associated with adverse outcomes. We compared delay intervals by age for patients with CRC in a large population. METHODS: This was a population-based study of adults diagnosed with CRC in Ontario, Canada, from 2003 to 2018. We measured the time between presentation and diagnosis (diagnostic interval), diagnosis and treatment start (treatment interval), and the time from presentation to treatment (overall interval). We compared interval lengths between adults aged <50 years, 50 to 74 years, and 75 to 89 years using multivariable quantile regression. RESULTS: Included were 90,225 patients with CRC. Of these, 6853 patients (7.6%) were aged <50 years. Younger patients were more likely to be women, present emergently, have stage IV disease, and have rectal cancer compared with middle-aged patients. Factors associated with significantly longer overall intervals included female sex (8.7 days; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.6-10.9 days) and rectal cancer compared with proximal colon cancer (9.8 days; 95% CI, 7.4-2.2 days). After adjustment, adults aged <50 years had significantly longer diagnostic intervals (4.3 days; 95% CI. 1.3-7.3 days) and significantly shorter treatment intervals (-4.5 days; 95% CI, -5.3 to -3.7 days) compared with middle-aged patients. However, there was no significant difference in the overall interval (-0.6 days; 95% CI, -4.3 to 3.2 days). In stratified models, younger adults with stage IV disease who presented emergently and patients aged >75 years had longer overall intervals. CONCLUSIONS: Younger adults present more often with stage IV CRC but have overall similar times from presentation to treatment as screening-eligible older adults.