A new clinical and prognostic characterization of the patterns of decompensation of cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The prognostic impact of acute decompensation (AD), i.e. the development of complications that require hospitalization, has recently been assessed. However, complications of cirrhosis do not necessarily require hospitalization and can develop progressively, as in the recently defined non-acute decompensation (NAD). Nevertheless, there is no data regarding the incidence and prognostic impact of NAD. The aim of the study was to evaluate the incidence and the prognostic impact of NAD and AD in outpatients with cirrhosis. METHODS: A total of 617 outpatients with cirrhosis from two Italian tertiary centers (Padua and Milan) were enrolled from January 2003 to June 2021 and followed prospectively until the end of the study, death or liver transplantation. The complications registered during follow-up were considered as AD if they required hospitalization, or NAD if managed at the outpatient clinic. RESULTS: During follow-up, 154 patients (25.0% of total patients) developed complications, 69 patients (44.8%) developed NAD and 85 (55.2%) developed AD, while 29 patients with NAD (42.0%) developed a further episode of AD during follow-up. Sixty-month survival was significantly higher in patients with no decompensation than in patients with NAD or AD. On multivariable analysis, AD (hazard ratio [HR] 21.07, p <0.001), NAD (HR 7.13, p <0.001), the etiological cure of cirrhosis (HR 0.38, p <0.001) and model for end-stage liver disease score (HR 1.12, p = 0.003) were found to be independent predictors of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The first decompensation is non-acute in almost 50% of outpatients, though such events are still associated with decreased survival compared to no decompensation. Patients who develop NAD must be treated with extreme care and monitored closely to prevent the development of AD. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: This multicenter study is the first to investigate the role of non-acute decompensation (NAD) in patients with cirrhosis. In fact, while the unfavorable impact of acute decompensation is well known, there is currently a dearth of evidence on NAD, despite it being a common occurrence in clinical practice. Our data show that almost half of decompensations in patients with cirrhosis can be considered NAD and that such events are associated with a higher risk of mortality than no decompensation. This study has important clinical implications because it highlights the need to carefully consider patients who develop NAD, in order to prevent further decompensation and reduce mortality.

Predicting survival in patients with 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding receiving ß-blockers+ligation to prevent re-bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is the treatment of choice for high-risk acute variceal bleeding (AVB; i.e., Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP] B8-9+active bleeding/C10-13). Nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation for secondary prophylaxis. We investigated prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' AVB to identify subgroups who may benefit from more potent treatments (i.e., TIPS) to prevent further decompensation and mortality. METHODS: A total of 2,225 adults with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding were prospectively recruited at 34 centres between 2011-2015; for the purpose of this study, case definitions and information on prognostic indicators at index AVB and on day 5 were further refined in low-risk patients, of whom 581 (without failure to control bleeding or contraindications to TIPS) who were managed by non-selective beta-blockers/endoscopic variceal ligation, were finally included. Patients were followed for 1 year. RESULTS: Overall, 90 patients (15%) re-bled and 70 (12%) patients died during follow-up. Using clinical routine data, no meaningful predictors of re-bleeding were identified. However, re-bleeding (included as a time-dependent co-variable) increased mortality, even after accounting for differences in patient characteristics (adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio: 2.57; 95% CI 1.43-4.62; p = 0.002). A nomogram including CTP, creatinine, and sodium measured at baseline accurately (concordance: 0.752) stratified the risk of death. CONCLUSION: The majority of 'non-high-risk' patients with AVB have an excellent prognosis, if treated according to current recommendations. However, about one-fifth of patients, i.e. those with CTP ≥8 and/or high creatinine levels or hyponatremia, have a considerable risk of death within 1 year of the index bleed. Future clinical trials should investigate whether elective TIPS placement reduces mortality in these patients. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in high-risk acute variceal bleeding; nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation. This is the first large-scale study investigating prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding. While no clinically meaningful predictors were identified for re-bleeding, we developed a nomogram integrating baseline Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, creatinine, and sodium to stratify mortality risk. Our study paves the way for future clinical trials evaluating whether elective transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in presumably 'non-high-risk' patients who are identified as being at increased risk of death.

Exploring algorithms to select candidates for non-selective beta-blockers in cirrhosis: a post-hoc analysis of the PREDESCI trial.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Whether non-invasive tests (NITs) can accurately select patients with cirrhosis requiring non-selective beta-blockers (NSBB) for clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) and prevention of decompensation is unclear. Our aim was to test the performance of NIT-based algorithms for CSPH diagnosis using the prospective PREDESCI cohort. We investigated a new algorithm combining NITs with endoscopy to improve performance. METHODS: We included patients with compensated cirrhosis and available liver elastography who were screened during the trial. The performance of models based on liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and platelet count was evaluated. An algorithm considering endoscopy for patients with inconclusive results (the "grey zone") was then developed and validated in an independent cohort of 195 patients in whom also spleen stiffness was available. RESULTS: We included 170 patients from the PREDESCI cohort. An LSM≥25 kPa alone (Baveno VII criteria) or an LSM>20 kPa plus thrombocytopenia (AASLD criteria) ruled-in CSPH with positive predictive value of 88 and 89%, respectively. However, 37%-47% patients fell into the grey zone while at high-risk of decompensation or death. Performing endoscopy in inconclusive cases identified patients with varices that, when re-classified as high-risk for CSPH, significantly reduced the grey zone to 22%. In this algorithm, 86% of CSPH patients were correctly classified as high-risk. The diagnostic performance was confirmed in the external validation cohort, where combining Baveno VII criteria with spleen stiffness showed similar accuracy to the model using endoscopy. CONCLUSIONS: Algorithms based only on LSM and platelet count are suboptimal to identify NSBB treatment candidates. Performing endoscopy in patients with indeterminate findings from NITs improved diagnostic performance and risk stratification. Endoscopy may be substituted by spleen stiffness for stratifying the risk in the grey zone. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: The PREDESCI trial demonstrated that non-selective beta-blockers prevent decompensation in CSPH patients. Still it is unclear whether we can select treatment candidates using non-invasive tests to assess the presence of CSPH without measuring HVPG. In the prospective cohort of patients screened during the trial, we showed that algorithms based on liver stiffness and platelet count had suboptimal performance, mainly due to a high rate of indeterminate results. Performing endoscopy in the grey zone patients allowed to significantly increase the number of patients with CSPH and improved the risk stratification for decompensation or death on long-term follow-up. These findings were validated in an independent cohort. In addition, a model using spleen stiffness instead of endoscopy showed similar diagnostic performance in the external validation cohort, suggesting that adequate risk stratification to select treatment candidates can be achieved with a fully non-invasive algorithm.

Myosteatosis is closely associated with sarcopenia and significantly worse outcomes in patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Sarcopenia and myosteatosis are common in patients with cirrhosis. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of these muscle changes, their interrelations and their prognostic impact over a 12-month period. METHODS: We conducted a prospective multicentre study involving 433 patients. Sarcopenia and myosteatosis were evaluated using computed tomography scans. The 1-year cumulative incidence of relevant events was assessed by competing risk analysis. We used a Fine-Gray model adjusted for known prognostic factors to evaluate the impact of sarcopenia and myosteatosis on mortality, hospitalization, and liver decompensation. RESULTS: At enrolment, 166 patients presented with isolated myosteatosis, 36 with isolated sarcopenia, 135 with combined sarcopenia and myosteatosis and 96 patients showed no muscle changes. The 1-year cumulative incidence of death in patients with either sarcopenia and myosteatosis (13.8%) or isolated myosteatosis (13.4%) was over twice that of patients without muscle changes (5.2%) or with isolated sarcopenia (5.6%). The adjusted sub-hazard ratio for death in patients with muscle changes was 1.36 (95% CI 0.99-1.86, p = 0.058). The cumulative incidence of hospitalization was significantly higher in patients with combined sarcopenia and myosteatosis than in patients without muscle changes (adjusted sub-hazard ratio 1.18, 95% CI 1.04-1.35). The cumulative incidence of liver decompensation was greater in patients with combined sarcopenia and myosteatosis (p = 0.018) and those with isolated sarcopenia (p = 0.046) than in patients without muscle changes. Lastly, we found a strong correlation of function tests and frailty scores with the presence of muscle changes. CONCLUSIONS: Myosteatosis, whether alone or combined with sarcopenia, is highly prevalent in patients with cirrhosis and is associated with significantly worse outcomes. The prognostic role of sarcopenia should always be evaluated in relation to the presence of myosteatosis. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: This study investigates the prognostic role of muscle changes in patients with cirrhosis. The novelty of this study is its multicentre, prospective nature and the fact that it distinguishes between the impact of individual muscle changes and their combination on prognosis in cirrhosis. This study highlights the prognostic role of myosteatosis, especially when combined with sarcopenia. On the other hand, the relevance of sarcopenia could be mitigated when considered together with myosteatosis. The implication from these findings is that sarcopenia should never be evaluated individually and that myosteatosis may play a dominant role in the prognosis of patients with cirrhosis.

A machine learning model to predict liver-related outcomes after the functional cure of chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and hepatic decompensation persists after hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning model to predict the risk of liver-related outcomes (LROs) following HBsAg seroclearance. METHODS: A total of 4,787 consecutive patients who achieved HBsAg seroclearance between 2000 and 2022 were enrolled from 6 centers in South Korea and a territory-wide database in Hong Kong, comprising the training (n=944), internal validation (n=1,102), and external validation (n=2,741) cohorts. Three machine learning-based models were developed and compared in each cohort. The primary outcome was the development of any LRO, including HCC, decompensation, and liver-related death. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 55.2 (interquartile range=30.1-92.3) months, 123 LROs were confirmed (1.1%/person-year) in the Korean cohort. A model with the best predictive performance in the training cohort was selected as the final model (designated as PLAN-B-CURE), which was constructed using a gradient boosting algorithm and 7 variables (age, sex, diabetes, alcohol consumption, cirrhosis, albumin, and platelet count). Compared to previous HCC prediction models, PLAN-B-CURE showed significantly superior accuracy in the training cohort (c-index: 0.82 vs. 0.63-0.70, all P<0.001; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.86 vs. 0.62-0.72, all P<0.01; area under the precision-recall curve: 0.53 vs. 0.13-0.29, all P<0.01). PLAN-B-CURE showed a reliable calibration function (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P>0.05) and these results were reproduced in the internal and external validation cohorts. CONCLUSION: This novel machine learning model consisting of 7 variables provides reliable risk prediction of LRO after HBsAg seroclearance that can be used for personalized surveillance.

Hepatic venous pressure gradient predicts risk of hepatic decompensation and liver-related mortality in patients with MASLD.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is a leading cause of advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD). Portal hypertension drives hepatic decompensation and is best diagnosed by hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement. Here, we investigate the prognostic value of HVPG in MASLD-related compensated ACLD (MASLD-cACLD). METHODS: This European multicentre study included patients with MASLD-cACLD characterised by HVPG at baseline. Hepatic decompensation (variceal bleeding/ascites/hepatic encephalopathy) and liver-related mortality were considered the primary events of interest. RESULTS: A total of 340 patients with MASLD-cACLD (56.2% male; median age 62 [55-68] years, median MELD 8 [7-9], 71.2% with diabetes) were included. Clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH: i.e., HVPG ≥10 mmHg) was found in 209 patients (61.5%). During a median follow-up of 41.5 (27.5-65.8) months, 65 patients developed hepatic decompensation with a cumulative incidence of 10.0% after 2 years (2Y) and 30.7% after 5 years (5Y) in those with MASLD-cACLD with CSPH, compared to 2.4% after 2Y and 9.4% after 5Y in patients without CSPH. Variceal bleeding did not occur without CSPH. CSPH (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 5.13; p <0.001) was associated with an increased decompensation risk and a higher HVPG remained an independent risk factor in the multivariable model (adjusted SHR per mmHg: 1.12, p <0.001). Liver-related mortality occurred in 37 patients at a cumulative incidence of 3.3% after 2Y and 21.4% after 5Y in CSPH. Without CSPH, the incidence after 5Y was 0.8%. Accordingly, a higher HVPG was also independently associated with a higher risk of liver-related death (adjusted SHR per mmHg: 1.20, p <0.001). CONCLUSION: HVPG measurement is of high prognostic value in MASLD-cACLD. In patients with MASLD-cACLD without CSPH, the short-term risk of decompensation is very low and liver-related mortality is rare, while the presence of CSPH substantially increases the risk of both. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: While the incidence of compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) due to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is increasing worldwide, insights into the impact of clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) on the risk of liver-related events in MASLD-cACLD remain limited. Based on the findings of this European multicentre study including 340 MASLD-cACLD patients, we could show that increasing HVPG values and the presence of CSPH in particular were associated with a significantly higher risk of first hepatic decompensation and liver-related mortality. In contrast, the short-term incidence of decompensation in patients with MASLD-cACLD without CSPH was low and the risk of liver-mortality remained negligible. Thus, HVPG measurements can provide important prognostic information for individualised risk stratification in MASLD-cACLD and may help facilitate the study of novel and promising treatment possibilities for MASLD.

Treatment response and clinical event-free survival in autoimmune hepatitis: A Canadian multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Treatment outcomes for people living with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) are limited by a lack of specific therapies, as well as limited well-validated prognostic tools and clinical trial endpoints. We sought to identify predictors of outcome for people living with AIH. METHODS: We evaluated the clinical course of people with AIH across 11 Canadian centres. Biochemical changes were analysed using linear mixed-effect and logistic regression. Clinical outcome was dynamically modelled using time-varying Cox proportional hazard modelling and landmark analysis. RESULTS: In 691 patients (median age 49 years, 75.4% female), with a median follow-up of 6 years (25th-75th percentile, 2.5-11), 118 clinical events occurred. Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) normalisation occurred in 63.8% of the cohort by 12 months. Older age at diagnosis (odd ratio [OR] 1.19, 95% CI 1.06-1.35) and female sex (OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.18-3.19) were associated with ALT normalisation at 6 months, whilst baseline cirrhosis status was associated with reduced chance of normalisation at 12 months (OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.33-0.82). Baseline total bilirubin, aminotransferases, and IgG values, as well as initial prednisone dose, did not predict average ALT reduction. At baseline, older age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.25, 95% CI 1.12-1.40), cirrhosis at diagnosis (HR 3.67, 95% CI 2.48-5.43), and elevated baseline total bilirubin (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.17-1.58) increased the risk of clinical events. Prolonged elevations in ALT (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.00-1.13) and aspartate aminotransferase (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.06-1.21), but not IgG (HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.95-1.07), were associated with higher risk of clinical events. Higher ALT at 6 months was associated with worse clinical event-free survival. CONCLUSION: In people living with AIH, sustained elevated aminotransferase values, but not IgG, are associated with poorer long-term outcomes. Biochemical response and long-term survival are not associated with starting prednisone dose. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Using clinical data from multiple Canadian liver clinics treating autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), we evaluate treatment response and clinical outcomes. For the first time, we apply mixed-effect and time-varying survival statistical methods to rigorously examine treatment response and the impact of fluctuating liver biochemistry on clinical event-free survival. Key to the study impact, our data is 'real-world', represents a diverse population across Canada, and uses continuous measurements over follow-up. Our results challenge the role of IgG as a marker of treatment response and if normalisation of IgG should remain an important part of the definition of biochemical remission. Our analysis further highlights that baseline markers of disease severity may not prognosticate early treatment response. Additionally, the initial prednisone dose may be less relevant for achieving aminotransferase normalisation. This is important for patients and treating clinicians given the relevance and importance of side effects.

Beta-Blockers Lower First Decompensation in Patients With Cirrhosis and Enduring Portal Hypertension After Etiological Treatment.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Nonselective beta-blockers (NSBBs) can lower the risk of first decompensation in patients with cirrhosis and clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) (identified by a hepatic venous pressure gradient ≥10 mm Hg) with active etiology. Our aim was to examine the effect of NSBBs on first decompensation occurrence in patients with cirrhosis and enduring CSPH after etiological treatment. METHODS: Patients with compensated cirrhosis and clinical evidence of CSPH (gastroesophageal varices [GEVs] and/or spontaneous portosystemic collaterals [SPSSs]) after 2 years from etiological treatment. The primary endpoint was first decompensation (occurrence of variceal bleeding, ascites, or hepatic encephalopathy) in patients on NSBBs vs off NSBBs. RESULTS: The final cohort included 406 patients. Baseline characteristics of patients on NSBBs (n = 187) and off NSBBs (n = 219) were comparable, except for signs of portal hypertension that were more pronounced in the on-NSBB group. During a mean follow-up of 32 months, 127 (31%) patients decompensated, with ascites being the most common (77%) decompensating event. Decompensation rates were lower in patients on NSBBs (16% vs 44%; P < .0001). The benefit of NSBBs on decompensation was maintained in patients with small GEVs (17% vs 43%; P < .0001), in those with spontaneous portosystemic shunt only (8% vs 43%; P = .003), and in each different etiology, including hepatitis C virus-cured cirrhosis (9% vs 32%; P < .0001). At Cox regression analysis, hemoglobin, Child-Pugh, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium, diabetes at baseline, and previous bacterial infections were independent predictors of decompensation, while NSBB use had a protective effect (hazard ratio, 0.32; 95% confidence interval, 0.20-0.49; P < .0001). NSBB use significantly reduced bacterial infection rates (hazard ratio, 0.36; 95% confidence interval, 0.22-0.58; P < .0001). CONCLUSION: NSBBs decrease the risk of first decompensation in patients with cirrhosis and enduring CSPH after etiological treatment.

Cost-Effectiveness of the Baveno VI Criteria Compared With Endoscopy for High-Risk Varices in Patients With Child-Pugh A Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Although upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (EGD) remains the gold standard for detecting varices in cirrhosis, the Baveno VI criteria proposed a combination of transient elastography and platelet count that could rule out high-risk varices, therefore sparing the need for an endoscopy, with significant potential cost savings. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of the Baveno VI criteria compared with EGD in the diagnosis of high-risk varices in cirrhosis. METHODS: We built an analytical decision model to estimate the cost and benefits of using the Baveno VI criteria compared with EGD in patients with Child-Pugh A cirrhosis. The analysis was performed from the UK National Health Service perspective, over 1, 5, and 20 years. A Markov model was populated with data from published evidence. Outcomes were measured in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and avoided deaths. The analyses were repeated for Canada and Spain, using relevant cost inputs. RESULTS: The Baveno VI criteria were cost effective compared with endoscopy in all analyses. For 1000 patients, they produced 0.16 additional QALYs at an incremental cost of £326 ($443.41) over 5 years, resulting in an incremental cost of £2081 ($2830) per additional QALY gained. The incremental net monetary benefit of Baveno VI compared with EGD was £2808 ($3819) over 5 years per patient. Baveno VI criteria also were cost effective in Canada and Spain. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis supported these findings. CONCLUSIONS: The findings demonstrate that the Baveno VI criteria are cost effective, suggesting that they should be considered for widespread implementation on the basis of safety, appropriateness, and economic grounds.

Standardized emergency protocols to improve the management of patients with suspected or confirmed inherited metabolic disorders (IMDs): An initiative of the French IMDs Healthcare Network for Rare Diseases.

OBJECTIVES: Patients with inherited metabolic disorders (IMDs) may require emergency hospital care to prevent life-threatening situations such as metabolic decompensation. To date, over one thousand different rare IMDs have been identified, which means that healthcare professionals (HCPs) initiating emergency treatment may not be familiar with these conditions. The objective of this initiative was to provide HCPs with practical guidance for the acute management of children and adults with IMDs who need emergency care, regardless of the underlying reason. METHODS: We outline how a multidisciplinary working group from the French IMDs Healthcare Network for Rare Diseases, known as G2M, has created concise and standardized protocols _each consisting of a single double-sided A4 sheet _ focused on a specific disease, a group of diseases, or a particular symptom. Prior to validation, these protocols were reviewed by all French reference and competence centres for IMDs, as well as by medical experts from other specialities when necessary, physicians from emergency and intensive care units, and representatives from patient associations. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: In total, 51 emergency protocols containing essential information have been developed and provided to affected patients. All the emergency protocols are freely available in both French and English at https://www.filiere-g2m.fr/urgences. These standardized protocols aim to enhance the emergency care of patients without delay, while also assisting HCPs by increasing their confidence and efficiency, minimizing the risk of dosage errors when administering specialized treatments, saving time, and reducing the number of phone calls to metabolic medicine specialists on night duty. The protocols are scheduled for annual review to facilitate further improvements based on feedback from HCPs and patients, as well as to accommodate any changes in management practices as they evolve.

The interplay of psychosis and non-compliance with fatal outcome in an adult with MSUD.

Significant progress has been achieved in enhancing early outcomes for individuals with maple syrup urine disease (MSUD), a rare metabolic disorder that leads to the accumulation of branched-chain amino acids leucine, isoleucine, and valine, where leucine is known as the primary neurotoxic metabolite. Newborn screening is helpful in early diagnosis and implementation of dietary treatment, thus reducing neurological deterioration and complications in young children. However, patients face the life-long challenge of maintaining metabolic control through adherence to a strict low-leucine diet to avoid long-term consequences of chronic hyperleucinemia, which include cognitive deficits, mood disorders, and movement disorders. This case report exemplifies the complex involvement of MSUD in adult survivors. Despite presenting early in life, the patient thrived until the onset of psychiatric symptoms. The subject of this case is a 25-year-old woman with MSUD, who remained in her usual state of health until presentation to the emergency department (ED) with psychosis and altered mental status. However, due to a lack of medical records and poor communication, there was a delay in considering MSUD as a primary cause of her psychiatric symptoms. Although a genetics consultation was later arranged and efforts were made to decrease plasma leucine to the therapeutic range, these interventions proved inadequate in halting her deterioration in health. Her condition worsened within 72 h, culminating in her untimely death. This case emphasizes the comorbidity of psychiatric involvement in MSUD, which contributes to metabolic decompensation that can lead to cerebral edema and death. This case also highlights the pressing need for enhanced strategies for the acute management and long-term care of MSUD patients with psychiatric involvement, particularly in scenarios where mental disturbance could lead to noncompliance.

Acute and non-acute decompensation of liver cirrhosis (47/130).

In the traditional view, the occurrence of cirrhosis-related complications, such as hepatic encephalopathy, formation of ascites or variceal haemorrhage, marks the transition to the decompensated stage of cirrhosis. Although the dichotomous stratification into a compensated and decompensated state reflects a prognostic water-shed moment and remains to hold its prognostic validity, it represents an oversimplification of clinical realities. A broadening understanding of pathophysiological mechanisms underpinning decompensation have led to the identification of distinct prognostic subgroups, associated with different clinical courses following decompensation. Data provided by the PREDICT study uncovered three distinct sub-phenotypes of acute decompensation (AD). Moreover, acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has been established as a distinct clinical entity for many years, which is associated with a high short-term mortality. Recently, non-acute decompensation (NAD) has been proposed as a distinct pathway of decompensation, complementing current concepts of the spectrum of decompensation. In contrast to AD, NAD is characterized by a slow and progressive development of complications, which are often presented at first decompensation and/or in patients in an earlier stage of chronic liver disease. Successful treatment of AD or NAD may lead to a clinical stabilization or even the concept of recompensation. This review aims to provide an overview on current concepts of decompensation and to delineate recent advances in our clinical and pathophysiological understanding.

Disparities among ethnic groups in mortality and outcomes among adults with MASLD: A multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the leading cause of chronic liver disease and 10%-20% occurs in lean individuals. There is little data in the literature regarding outcomes in an ethnically-diverse patient populations with MASLD. Thus, we aim to investigate the natural history and ethnic disparities of MASLD patients in a diverse population, and stratified by body mass index categories. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective multicenter study on patients with MASLD at the Banner Health System from 2012 to 2022. Main outcomes included mortality and incidence of cirrhosis, cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus (DM), liver-related events (LREs), and cancer. We used competing risk and Cox proportional hazard regression analysis for outcome modelling. RESULTS: A total of 51 452 (cross-sectional cohort) and 37 027 (longitudinal cohort) patients were identified with 9.6% lean. The cohort was 63.33% European ancestry, 27.96% Hispanic ancestry, 3.45% African ancestry, and 2.31% Native American/Alaskan ancestry. Median follow-up was 45.8 months. After adjusting for confounders, compared to European individuals, Hispanic and Native American/Alaskan patients had higher prevalence of cirrhosis and DM, and individuals of Hispanic, African, and Native American/Alaskan ancestry had higher mortality and incidence of LREs and DM. Lean patients had higher mortality and incidence of LREs compared with non-lean patients. CONCLUSION: Native American/Alaskan, Hispanic, and African patients had higher mortality and incidence of LREs and DM compared with European patients. Further studies to explore the underlying disparities and intervention to prevent LREs in lean patients, particularly several ethnic groups, may improve clinical outcomes.

Influence of further decompensation on survival across clinical stages of decompensated cirrhosis: The role of portal hypertension and HVPG changes.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Decompensated-cirrhosis encompasses several stages with different prognosis, such as bleeding, ascites and bleeding-plus-ascites. Development of further-decompensation worsens survival, while non-selective ß-blockers (NSBBs) can modify the risk. However, how this applies to each stage is uncertain. We aimed to investigate, in each stage of decompensated-cirrhosis, the influence of further-decompensation on mortality and whether changes in portal-pressure (HVPG) under NSBBs influence these outcomes. METHODS: Patients with variceal bleeding were consecutively included differentiating those with bleeding-alone from those who also had ascites. Patients with ascites and high-risk varices referred for primary-prophylaxis were also investigated. A baseline haemodynamic study was performed and was repeated after 1-3-months under NSBBs. Outcomes were investigated by competing-risk. RESULTS: Totally 103 patients had bleeding-alone, 186 bleeding-plus-ascites and 187 ascites-alone. Mean follow-up was 32-months (IQR, 12-60). Patients with bleeding-plus-ascites had higher HVPG and were more hyperdynamic than patients with ascites-alone and these than those with bleeding-alone. At each stage, the mortality risk was more than twice in patients developing further-decompensation vs. those without (p < .001). In each stage, HVPG-decrease under NSBBs showed better discrimination to predict further-decompensation than the baseline MELD, Child-Pugh or HVPG, by time-dependent ROC-curves (c-statistic >70%). At each stage, patients without HVPG-decreases, either ≥10% or ≥20% from the baseline, had higher risk of further-decompensation (sHR from 2.43 to 6.73, p < .01) and worse survival. CONCLUSIONS: In each stage of decompensated cirrhosis, mortality risk significantly and very markedly increase with further-decompensation. HVPG-non-response to NSBBs may adequately stratify the risk of further decompensation and death, in each stage. This suggests potential benefit with pre-emptive therapies in HVPG-non-responders at each-stage.

Prognosis algorithms for acute decompensation of cirrhosis and ACLF.

Accurate prediction of survival in patients with cirrhosis is crucial, as patients who are unlikely to survive in the short-term need to be oriented to liver transplantation and to novel therapeutic approaches. Patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis without or with organ dysfunction/failure, the so-called acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), have a particularly high short-term mortality. Recognizing the specificity of this clinical situation, dedicated classifications and scores have been developed over the last 15 years, including variables (e.g. organ failures and systemic inflammation) not part of the formerly available cirrhosis severity scores, namely Child-Pugh score or MELD. For patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis, it led to the development of a dedicated score, the Clif-C-AD score, independently validated. For more severe patients, three different scoring systems have been proposed, by European, Asian and North American societies namely Clif-C-ACLF, AARC score and NASCELD-ACLF respectively. These scores have been validated, and are widely used across the world. The differences and similarities between these scores, as well as their validation and limitations are discussed here. Even if these scores and classifications have been a step forward in favouring homogeneity between studies, and in helping making decisions for individual patients, their predictive value for mortality can still be improved as their area under the ROC curve does not exceed .8. Novel scores including biomarkers reflecting the pathophysiology of acute decompensation of cirrhosis might help reach that goal.

Predictors of clinical trajectories of patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis. An external validation of the PREDICT study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The PREDICT study recently showed that acutely decompensated (AD) patients with cirrhosis can present three different clinical phenotypes in the 90 days after admission: (1) pre-ACLF, developing acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF); (2) unstable decompensated cirrhosis (UDC), being re-admitted for AD without ACLF and (3) stable decompensated cirrhosis (SDC), not presenting readmission or ACLF. This study aimed to externally validate the existence of these three distinct trajectories and to identify predictors for the occurrence of each trajectory. METHODS: Baseline data, 3-month ACLF and readmission incidence and 1-year survival were analysed in a prospective cohort of patients admitted for AD. A multinomial multivariable model was used to evaluate the association between baseline features and clinical trajectories. RESULTS: Of the 311 patients enrolled, 55% met the criteria for SDC, 18% for UDC and 27% for pre-ACLF, presenting a significantly different 1-year mortality: pre-ACLF 65%, UDC 46%, SDC 21% (p < .001). The presence of hepatic encephalopathy (HE) was associated with UDC (p = .043), while the absence of ascites to SDC (p = .017). Among laboratory parameters, an increase in MELD-Na (p = .001) and C-reactive protein (p = .009) and a decrease in haemoglobin (p = .004) and albumin (p = .008) levels were associated with pre-ACLF. CONCLUSION: The present study confirms that AD patients have three different clinical trajectories with different mortality rates. Besides the severity of cirrhosis, the association with C-reactive protein supports the predominant role of systemic inflammation in ACLF pathophysiology. Finally, HE is associated with the UDC phenotype highlighting the need for better management of this complication after discharge.

Periprocedural acute haemodynamic decompensation during substrate-based ablation of scar-related ventricular tachycardia: a rare and unpredictable event.

AIMS: Patients with structural heart disease (SHD) undergoing catheter ablation (CA) for ventricular tachycardia (VT) are at considerable risk of periprocedural complications, including acute haemodynamic decompensation (AHD). The PAINESD score was proposed to predict the risk of AHD. The goal of this study was to validate the PAINESD score using the retrospective analysis of data from a large-volume heart centre. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients who had their first radiofrequency CA for SHD-related VT between August 2006 and December 2020 were included in the study. Procedures were mainly performed under conscious sedation. Substrate mapping/ablation was performed primarily during spontaneous rhythm or right ventricular pacing. A purposely established institutional registry for complications of invasive procedures was used to collect all periprocedural complications that were subsequently adjudicated using the source medical records. Acute haemodynamic decompensation triggered by CA procedure was defined as intraprocedural or early post-procedural (<12 h) development of acute pulmonary oedema or refractory hypotension requiring urgent intervention. The study cohort consisted of 1124 patients (age, 63 ± 13 years; males, 87%; ischaemic cardiomyopathy, 67%; electrical storm, 25%; New York Heart Association Class, 2.0 ± 1.0; left ventricular ejection fraction, 34 ± 12%; diabetes mellitus, 31%; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 12%). Their PAINESD score was 11.4 ± 6.6 (median, 12; interquartile range, 6-17). Acute haemodynamic decompensation complicated the CA procedure in 13/1124 = 1.2% patients and was not predicted by PAINESD score with AHD rates of 0.3, 1.8, and 1.1% in subgroups by previously published PAINESD terciles (<9, 9-14, and >14). However, the PAINESD score strongly predicted mortality during the follow-up. CONCLUSION: Primarily substrate-based CA of SHD-related VT performed under conscious sedation is associated with a substantially lower rate of AHD than previously reported. The PAINESD score did not predict these events. The application of the PAINESD score to the selection of patients for pre-emptive mechanical circulatory support should be reconsidered.

Development and validation of a prognostic model for 90-day survival in patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis and acute decompensation.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis and acute decompensation are considered critically ill and have a higher risk of short-term mortality. This study aimed to establish a nomogram to evaluate their 90-day survival and identify factors that affect disease progression. METHODS: We included patients from September 2008 to December 2016 (n = 387 in the derivation group) and from January 2017 to August 2020 (n = 157 in the validation group). LASSO regression and Cox multivariate risk regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of the 90-day mortality risk, and a nomogram was constructed. The performance of a model was analyzed based on the C-index, area under the receiver operating curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: Total bilirubin >10 upper limit of normal, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, lymphocyte and monocyte ratios ≤2.33, white blood cells, and hemoglobin were identified as independent risk factors affecting the 90-day mortality risk of patients and the nomogram was developed. A nomogram demonstrated excellent model predictive accuracy in both the derivation and validation cohorts (C-index: 0.976 and 0.945), which was better than other commonly used liver scoring models (p < 0.05). The nomogram also performed good calibration ability and more clinical net benefit. According to the nomogram score, patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups. Mortality was significantly higher in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: The nomogram could accurately predict the 90-day mortality risk in patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis and acute decompensation, helping to identify high-risk patients and personalize treatment at their first admission.

Glycemic control target for liver and cardiovascular events risk in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

AIMS: Optimizing glycemic control may prevent liver-related events and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). However, the optimal hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) threshold associated with a lower risk of complications, particularly liver-related events as well as MACE is unknown. METHODS: We investigated a nationwide population-based cohort and identified 633 279 patients with MASLD, with a mean follow-up of 4.2 years. Hemoglobin A1c levels were measured annually. The primary endpoint was the risk of liver-related events and MACE and to determine the optimal HbA1c level associated with the risk of complications. RESULTS: Mean HbA1c (per 1%) was associated with liver-related events (subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR] 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.42) as well as MACE (sHR 1.36; 95% CI, 1.32-1.41) after adjustment for confounders. Multivariable sHR (95% CI) for HbA1c of <5.0%, 6.0%-6.9%, 7.0%-7.9%, 8.0%-8.9%, and ≥9.0% (reference, 5.0%-5.9%) were 14 (9.1-22), 1.70 (1.2-2.3), 3.32 (2.3-4.8), 3.81 (2.1-6.8), and 4.83 (2.4-9.6) for liver-related events, and 1.24 (0.8-1.8), 1.27 (1.2-1.4), 1.70 (1.5-2.0), 2.36 (1.9-2.9), and 4.17 (3.5-5.0) for MACE. An HbA1c level of 7% was selected as the optimal threshold for predicting complications (sHR 2.40 [1.8-3.2] for liver-related events and 1.98 [1.8-2.2] for MACE). CONCLUSION: The risk of liver-related events as well as MACE increased in a dose-dependent fashion with an increase in HbA1c levels, except for patients with HbA1c <5.0% for liver-related events. An HbA1c level of 7% was the optimal threshold associated with a lower risk of complications and may be utilized as a target for glycemic control in patients with MASLD.

Dynamic liver volume change in predicting hepatic decompensation and long-term effects of stereotactic body radiation therapy.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: This study aimed to investigate the association between liver volume change and hepatic decompensation and compare the risk of hepatic decompensation in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who underwent stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). METHODS: A retrospective review of SBRT-treated HCC and compensated LC without HCC patients was conducted. Liver volume was measured using auto-segmentation software on liver dynamic computed tomography scans. The decompensation event was defined as the first occurrence of refractory ascites, esophageal variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, or spontaneous bacterial peritonitis. We evaluated the association between the rate of liver volume decrease and hepatic decompensation and compared decompensation events between the SBRT and LC cohorts using propensity score matching. RESULTS: A total of 138 patients from the SBRT cohort and 488 from the LC cohort were analyzed. The rate of liver volume decrease was associated with the risk of decompensation events in both cohorts. The 3-year rate of decompensation events was significantly higher in the group with a liver volume decreasing rate > 7%/year compared with the group with a rate < 7%/year. In the propensity score-matched cohort, the 3-year rate of decompensation events after a single session of SBRT was not significantly different from that in the LC cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of liver volume decrease was significantly associated with the risk of hepatic decompensation in both HCC patients who received SBRT and LC patients. A single session of SBRT for HCC did not result in a higher decompensation rate compared with LC.