Underdetected dispersal and extensive local transmission drove the 2022 mpox epidemic.

The World Health Organization declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern in July 2022. To investigate global mpox transmission and population-level changes associated with controlling spread, we built phylogeographic and phylodynamic models to analyze MPXV genomes from five global regions together with air traffic and epidemiological data. Our models reveal community transmission prior to detection, changes in case reporting throughout the epidemic, and a large degree of transmission heterogeneity. We find that viral introductions played a limited role in prolonging spread after initial dissemination, suggesting that travel bans would have had only a minor impact. We find that mpox transmission in North America began declining before more than 10% of high-risk individuals in the USA had vaccine-induced immunity. Our findings highlight the importance of broader routine specimen screening surveillance for emerging infectious diseases and of joint integration of genomic and epidemiological information for early outbreak control.

Genomic surveillance reveals dynamic shifts in the connectivity of COVID-19 epidemics.

The maturation of genomic surveillance in the past decade has enabled tracking of the emergence and spread of epidemics at an unprecedented level. During the COVID-19 pandemic, for example, genomic data revealed that local epidemics varied considerably in the frequency of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) lineage importation and persistence, likely due to a combination of COVID-19 restrictions and changing connectivity. Here, we show that local COVID-19 epidemics are driven by regional transmission, including across international boundaries, but can become increasingly connected to distant locations following the relaxation of public health interventions. By integrating genomic, mobility, and epidemiological data, we find abundant transmission occurring between both adjacent and distant locations, supported by dynamic mobility patterns. We find that changing connectivity significantly influences local COVID-19 incidence. Our findings demonstrate a complex meaning of "local" when investigating connected epidemics and emphasize the importance of collaborative interventions for pandemic prevention and mitigation.

Generation and transmission of interlineage recombinants in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

We present evidence for multiple independent origins of recombinant SARS-CoV-2 viruses sampled from late 2020 and early 2021 in the United Kingdom. Their genomes carry single-nucleotide polymorphisms and deletions that are characteristic of the B.1.1.7 variant of concern but lack the full complement of lineage-defining mutations. Instead, the remainder of their genomes share contiguous genetic variation with non-B.1.1.7 viruses circulating in the same geographic area at the same time as the recombinants. In four instances, there was evidence for onward transmission of a recombinant-origin virus, including one transmission cluster of 45 sequenced cases over the course of 2 months. The inferred genomic locations of recombination breakpoints suggest that every community-transmitted recombinant virus inherited its spike region from a B.1.1.7 parental virus, consistent with a transmission advantage for B.1.1.7's set of mutations.

Emergence of an early SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the United States.

The emergence of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States (U.S.) went largely undetected due to inadequate testing. New Orleans experienced one of the earliest and fastest accelerating outbreaks, coinciding with Mardi Gras. To gain insight into the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. and how large-scale events accelerate transmission, we sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Louisiana. We show that SARS-CoV-2 in Louisiana had limited diversity compared to other U.S. states and that one introduction of SARS-CoV-2 led to almost all of the early transmission in Louisiana. By analyzing mobility and genomic data, we show that SARS-CoV-2 was already present in New Orleans before Mardi Gras, and the festival dramatically accelerated transmission. Our study provides an understanding of how superspreading during large-scale events played a key role during the early outbreak in the U.S. and can greatly accelerate epidemics.

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity.

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant.

Early introductions and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 in the United States.

The emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, first detected in the United Kingdom, has become a global public health concern because of its increased transmissibility. Over 2,500 COVID-19 cases associated with this variant have been detected in the United States (US) since December 2020, but the extent of establishment is relatively unknown. Using travel, genomic, and diagnostic data, we highlight that the primary ports of entry for B.1.1.7 in the US were in New York, California, and Florida. Furthermore, we found evidence for many independent B.1.1.7 establishments starting in early December 2020, followed by interstate spread by the end of the month. Finally, we project that B.1.1.7 will be the dominant lineage in many states by mid- to late March. Thus, genomic surveillance for B.1.1.7 and other variants urgently needs to be enhanced to better inform the public health response.

Emergence and rapid transmission of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 in the United States.

The highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2, first identified in the United Kingdom, has gained a foothold across the world. Using S gene target failure (SGTF) and SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequencing, we investigated the prevalence and dynamics of this variant in the United States (US), tracking it back to its early emergence. We found that, while the fraction of B.1.1.7 varied by state, the variant increased at a logistic rate with a roughly weekly doubling rate and an increased transmission of 40%-50%. We revealed several independent introductions of B.1.1.7 into the US as early as late November 2020, with community transmission spreading it to most states within months. We show that the US is on a similar trajectory as other countries where B.1.1.7 became dominant, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

Transmission, infectivity, and neutralization of a spike L452R SARS-CoV-2 variant.

We identified an emerging severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant by viral whole-genome sequencing of 2,172 nasal/nasopharyngeal swab samples from 44 counties in California, a state in the western United States. Named B.1.427/B.1.429 to denote its two lineages, the variant emerged in May 2020 and increased from 0% to >50% of sequenced cases from September 2020 to January 2021, showing 18.6%-24% increased transmissibility relative to wild-type circulating strains. The variant carries three mutations in the spike protein, including an L452R substitution. We found 2-fold increased B.1.427/B.1.429 viral shedding in vivo and increased L452R pseudovirus infection of cell cultures and lung organoids, albeit decreased relative to pseudoviruses carrying the N501Y mutation common to variants B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. Antibody neutralization assays revealed 4.0- to 6.7-fold and 2.0-fold decreases in neutralizing titers from convalescent patients and vaccine recipients, respectively. The increased prevalence of a more transmissible variant in California exhibiting decreased antibody neutralization warrants further investigation.

Genomic Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Guangdong Province, China.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection and was first reported in central China in December 2019. Extensive molecular surveillance in Guangdong, China's most populous province, during early 2020 resulted in 1,388 reported RNA-positive cases from 1.6 million tests. In order to understand the molecular epidemiology and genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in China, we generated 53 genomes from infected individuals in Guangdong using a combination of metagenomic sequencing and tiling amplicon approaches. Combined epidemiological and phylogenetic analyses indicate multiple independent introductions to Guangdong, although phylogenetic clustering is uncertain because of low virus genetic variation early in the pandemic. Our results illustrate how the timing, size, and duration of putative local transmission chains were constrained by national travel restrictions and by the province's large-scale intensive surveillance and intervention measures. Despite these successes, COVID-19 surveillance in Guangdong is still required, because the number of cases imported from other countries has increased.

Coast-to-Coast Spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the Early Epidemic in the United States.

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States in January 2020, with subsequent COVID-19 outbreaks detected in all 50 states by early March. To uncover the sources of SARS-CoV-2 introductions and patterns of spread within the United States, we sequenced nine viral genomes from early reported COVID-19 patients in Connecticut. Our phylogenetic analysis places the majority of these genomes with viruses sequenced from Washington state. By coupling our genomic data with domestic and international travel patterns, we show that early SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Connecticut was likely driven by domestic introductions. Moreover, the risk of domestic importation to Connecticut exceeded that of international importation by mid-March regardless of our estimated effects of federal travel restrictions. This study provides evidence of widespread sustained transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within the United States and highlights the critical need for local surveillance.

Travel Surveillance and Genomics Uncover a Hidden Zika Outbreak during the Waning Epidemic.

The Zika epidemic in the Americas has challenged surveillance and control. As the epidemic appears to be waning, it is unclear whether transmission is still ongoing, which is exacerbated by discrepancies in reporting. To uncover locations with lingering outbreaks, we investigated travel-associated Zika cases to identify transmission not captured by reporting. We uncovered an unreported outbreak in Cuba during 2017, a year after peak transmission in neighboring islands. By sequencing Zika virus, we show that the establishment of the virus was delayed by a year and that the ensuing outbreak was sparked by long-lived lineages of Zika virus from other Caribbean islands. Our data suggest that, although mosquito control in Cuba may initially have been effective at mitigating Zika virus transmission, such measures need to be maintained to be effective. Our study highlights how Zika virus may still be "silently" spreading and provides a framework for understanding outbreak dynamics. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Anti-CRISPR Phages Cooperate to Overcome CRISPR-Cas Immunity.

Some phages encode anti-CRISPR (acr) genes, which antagonize bacterial CRISPR-Cas immune systems by binding components of its machinery, but it is less clear how deployment of these acr genes impacts phage replication and epidemiology. Here, we demonstrate that bacteria with CRISPR-Cas resistance are still partially immune to Acr-encoding phage. As a consequence, Acr-phages often need to cooperate in order to overcome CRISPR resistance, with a first phage blocking the host CRISPR-Cas immune system to allow a second Acr-phage to successfully replicate. This cooperation leads to epidemiological tipping points in which the initial density of Acr-phage tips the balance from phage extinction to a phage epidemic. Furthermore, both higher levels of CRISPR-Cas immunity and weaker Acr activities shift the tipping points toward higher initial phage densities. Collectively, these data help elucidate how interactions between phage-encoded immune suppressors and the CRISPR systems they target shape bacteria-phage population dynamics.

HPV16 E7 Genetic Conservation Is Critical to Carcinogenesis.

Although most cervical human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16) infections become undetectable within 1-2 years, persistent HPV16 causes half of all cervical cancers. We used a novel HPV whole-genome sequencing technique to evaluate an exceptionally large collection of 5,570 HPV16-infected case-control samples to determine whether viral genetic variation influences risk of cervical precancer and cancer. We observed thousands of unique HPV16 genomes; very few women shared the identical HPV16 sequence, which should stimulate a careful re-evaluation of the clinical implications of HPV mutation rates, transmission, clearance, and persistence. In case-control analyses, HPV16 in the controls had significantly more amino acid changing variants throughout the genome. Strikingly, E7 was devoid of variants in precancers/cancers compared to higher levels in the controls; we confirmed this in cancers from around the world. Strict conservation of the 98 amino acids of E7, which disrupts Rb function, is critical for HPV16 carcinogenesis, presenting a highly specific target for etiologic and therapeutic research.

Global cancer statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries.

This article presents global cancer statistics by world region for the year 2022 based on updated estimates from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). There were close to 20 million new cases of cancer in the year 2022 (including nonmelanoma skin cancers [NMSCs]) alongside 9.7 million deaths from cancer (including NMSC). The estimates suggest that approximately one in five men or women develop cancer in a lifetime, whereas around one in nine men and one in 12 women die from it. Lung cancer was the most frequently diagnosed cancer in 2022, responsible for almost 2.5 million new cases, or one in eight cancers worldwide (12.4% of all cancers globally), followed by cancers of the female breast (11.6%), colorectum (9.6%), prostate (7.3%), and stomach (4.9%). Lung cancer was also the leading cause of cancer death, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18.7%), followed by colorectal (9.3%), liver (7.8%), female breast (6.9%), and stomach (6.8%) cancers. Breast cancer and lung cancer were the most frequent cancers in women and men, respectively (both cases and deaths). Incidence rates (including NMSC) varied from four-fold to five-fold across world regions, from over 500 in Australia/New Zealand (507.9 per 100,000) to under 100 in Western Africa (97.1 per 100,000) among men, and from over 400 in Australia/New Zealand (410.5 per 100,000) to close to 100 in South-Central Asia (103.3 per 100,000) among women. The authors examine the geographic variability across 20 world regions for the 10 leading cancer types, discussing recent trends, the underlying determinants, and the prospects for global cancer prevention and control. With demographics-based predictions indicating that the number of new cases of cancer will reach 35 million by 2050, investments in prevention, including the targeting of key risk factors for cancer (including smoking, overweight and obesity, and infection), could avert millions of future cancer diagnoses and save many lives worldwide, bringing huge economic as well as societal dividends to countries over the forthcoming decades.

Colorectal cancer statistics, 2023.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most common cause of cancer death in the United States. Every 3 years, the American Cancer Society provides an update of CRC statistics based on incidence from population-based cancer registries and mortality from the National Center for Health Statistics. In 2023, approximately 153,020 individuals will be diagnosed with CRC and 52,550 will die from the disease, including 19,550 cases and 3750 deaths in individuals younger than 50 years. The decline in CRC incidence slowed from 3%-4% annually during the 2000s to 1% annually during 2011-2019, driven partly by an increase in individuals younger than 55 years of 1%-2% annually since the mid-1990s. Consequently, the proportion of cases among those younger than 55 years increased from 11% in 1995 to 20% in 2019. Incidence since circa 2010 increased in those younger than 65 years for regional-stage disease by about 2%-3% annually and for distant-stage disease by 0.5%-3% annually, reversing the overall shift to earlier stage diagnosis that occurred during 1995 through 2005. For example, 60% of all new cases were advanced in 2019 versus 52% in the mid-2000s and 57% in 1995, before widespread screening. There is also a shift to left-sided tumors, with the proportion of rectal cancer increasing from 27% in 1995 to 31% in 2019. CRC mortality declined by 2% annually from 2011-2020 overall but increased by 0.5%-3% annually in individuals younger than 50 years and in Native Americans younger than 65 years. In summary, despite continued overall declines, CRC is rapidly shifting to diagnosis at a younger age, at a more advanced stage, and in the left colon/rectum. Progress against CRC could be accelerated by uncovering the etiology of rising incidence in generations born since 1950 and increasing access to high-quality screening and treatment among all populations, especially Native Americans.

Cancer risk among World Trade Center rescue and recovery workers: A review.

Twenty years after the September 11th, 2001 terrorist attacks, the association between exposures present at the World Trade Center (WTC) site and the risk of several specific types of cancer has been reported among rescue and recovery workers. The authors' objective was to conduct an updated review of these data. Most studies have found elevated rates of both prostate and thyroid cancers compared with rates in the general population, and some have reported statistically significant differences for the rates of all cancers as well. Studies including a larger combined cohort of WTC-exposed rescue and recovery workers from 3 main cohorts have since replicated findings for these cancers, with additional years of follow-up. Among this combined cohort, although a lower-than-expected standardized incidence ratio for all cancers was observed, WTC exposure was also related to an increased risk of cutaneous melanoma and tonsil cancer. Importantly, another study found that WTC-exposed rescue and recovery workers who are enrolled in the federally funded medical monitoring and treatment program experienced improved survival post-cancer diagnosis compared with New York state patients with cancer. On the basis of these combined cohort studies, the full effect of WTC exposure on cancer risk is becoming clearer. Consequently, the authors believe that surveillance of those with WTC exposure should be continued, and in-depth analysis of epidemiologic, molecular, and clinical aspects of specific cancers in these workers should be pursued.

Breast Cancer Statistics, 2022.

This article is the American Cancer Society's update on female breast cancer statistics in the United States, including population-based data on incidence, mortality, survival, and mammography screening. Breast cancer incidence rates have risen in most of the past four decades; during the most recent data years (2010-2019), the rate increased by 0.5% annually, largely driven by localized-stage and hormone receptor-positive disease. In contrast, breast cancer mortality rates have declined steadily since their peak in 1989, albeit at a slower pace in recent years (1.3% annually from 2011 to 2020) than in the previous decade (1.9% annually from 2002 to 2011). In total, the death rate dropped by 43% during 1989-2020, translating to 460,000 fewer breast cancer deaths during that time. The death rate declined similarly for women of all racial/ethnic groups except American Indians/Alaska Natives, among whom the rates were stable. However, despite a lower incidence rate in Black versus White women (127.8 vs. 133.7 per 100,000), the racial disparity in breast cancer mortality remained unwavering, with the death rate 40% higher in Black women overall (27.6 vs. 19.7 deaths per 100,000 in 2016-2020) and two-fold higher among adult women younger than 50 years (12.1 vs. 6.5 deaths per 100,000). Black women have the lowest 5-year relative survival of any racial/ethnic group for every molecular subtype and stage of disease (except stage I), with the largest Black-White gaps in absolute terms for hormone receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative disease (88% vs. 96%), hormone receptor-negative/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive disease (78% vs. 86%), and stage III disease (64% vs. 77%). Progress against breast cancer mortality could be accelerated by mitigating racial disparities through increased access to high-quality screening and treatment via nationwide Medicaid expansion and partnerships between community stakeholders, advocacy organizations, and health systems.

Global Cancer Statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN Estimates of Incidence and Mortality Worldwide for 36 Cancers in 185 Countries.

This article provides an update on the global cancer burden using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Worldwide, an estimated 19.3 million new cancer cases (18.1 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and almost 10.0 million cancer deaths (9.9 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) occurred in 2020. Female breast cancer has surpassed lung cancer as the most commonly diagnosed cancer, with an estimated 2.3 million new cases (11.7%), followed by lung (11.4%), colorectal (10.0 %), prostate (7.3%), and stomach (5.6%) cancers. Lung cancer remained the leading cause of cancer death, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18%), followed by colorectal (9.4%), liver (8.3%), stomach (7.7%), and female breast (6.9%) cancers. Overall incidence was from 2-fold to 3-fold higher in transitioned versus transitioning countries for both sexes, whereas mortality varied <2-fold for men and little for women. Death rates for female breast and cervical cancers, however, were considerably higher in transitioning versus transitioned countries (15.0 vs 12.8 per 100,000 and 12.4 vs 5.2 per 100,000, respectively). The global cancer burden is expected to be 28.4 million cases in 2040, a 47% rise from 2020, with a larger increase in transitioning (64% to 95%) versus transitioned (32% to 56%) countries due to demographic changes, although this may be further exacerbated by increasing risk factors associated with globalization and a growing economy. Efforts to build a sustainable infrastructure for the dissemination of cancer prevention measures and provision of cancer care in transitioning countries is critical for global cancer control.

Brain and other central nervous system tumor statistics, 2021.

Brain and other central nervous system (CNS) tumors are among the most fatal cancers and account for substantial morbidity and mortality in the United States. Population-based data from the Central Brain Tumor Registry of the United States (a combined data set of the National Program of Cancer Registries [NPCR] and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results [SEER] registries), NPCR, National Vital Statistics System and SEER program were analyzed to assess the contemporary burden of malignant and nonmalignant brain and other CNS tumors (hereafter brain) by histology, anatomic site, age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Malignant brain tumor incidence rates declined by 0.8% annually from 2008 to 2017 for all ages combined but increased 0.5% to 0.7% per year among children and adolescents. Malignant brain tumor incidence is highest in males and non-Hispanic White individuals, whereas the rates for nonmalignant tumors are highest in females and non-Hispanic Black individuals. Five-year relative survival for all malignant brain tumors combined increased between 1975 to 1977 and 2009 to 2015 from 23% to 36%, with larger gains among younger age groups. Less improvement among older age groups largely reflects a higher burden of glioblastoma, for which there have been few major advances in prevention, early detection, and treatment the past 4 decades. Specifically, 5-year glioblastoma survival only increased from 4% to 7% during the same time period. In addition, important survival disparities by race/ethnicity remain for childhood tumors, with the largest Black-White disparities for diffuse astrocytomas (75% vs 86% for patients diagnosed during 2009-2015) and embryonal tumors (59% vs 67%). Increased resources for the collection and reporting of timely consistent data are critical for advancing research to elucidate the causes of sex, age, and racial/ethnic differences in brain tumor occurrence, especially for rarer subtypes and among understudied populations.

Cis- and trans-eQTL TWASs of breast and ovarian cancer identify more than 100 susceptibility genes in the BCAC and OCAC consortia.

Transcriptome-wide association studies (TWASs) have investigated the role of genetically regulated transcriptional activity in the etiologies of breast and ovarian cancer. However, methods performed to date have focused on the regulatory effects of risk-associated SNPs thought to act in cis on a nearby target gene. With growing evidence for distal (trans) regulatory effects of variants on gene expression, we performed TWASs of breast and ovarian cancer using a Bayesian genome-wide TWAS method (BGW-TWAS) that considers effects of both cis- and trans-expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs). We applied BGW-TWAS to whole-genome and RNA sequencing data in breast and ovarian tissues from the Genotype-Tissue Expression project to train expression imputation models. We applied these models to large-scale GWAS summary statistic data from the Breast Cancer and Ovarian Cancer Association Consortia to identify genes associated with risk of overall breast cancer, non-mucinous epithelial ovarian cancer, and 10 cancer subtypes. We identified 101 genes significantly associated with risk with breast cancer phenotypes and 8 with ovarian phenotypes. These loci include established risk genes and several novel candidate risk loci, such as ACAP3, whose associations are predominantly driven by trans-eQTLs. We replicated several associations using summary statistics from an independent GWAS of these cancer phenotypes. We further used genotype and expression data in normal and tumor breast tissue from the Cancer Genome Atlas to examine the performance of our trained expression imputation models. This work represents an in-depth look into the role of trans eQTLs in the complex molecular mechanisms underlying these diseases.