Relationship between changes in the triglyceride glucose-body mass index and frail development trajectory and incidence in middle-aged and elderly individuals: a national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Insulin resistance is linked to an increased risk of frailty, yet the comprehensive relationship between the triglyceride glucose-body mass index (TyG-BMI), which reflects weight, and frailty, remains unclear. This relationship is investigated in this study. METHODS: Data from 9135 participants in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011-2020) were analysed. Baseline TyG-BMI, changes in the TyG-BMI and cumulative TyG-BMI between baseline and 2015, along with the frailty index (FI) over nine years, were calculated. Participants were grouped into different categories based on TyG-BMI changes using K-means clustering. FI trajectories were assessed using a group-based trajectory model. Logistic and Cox regression models were used to analyse the associations between the TyG-BMI and FI trajectory and frail incidence. Nonlinear relationships were explored using restricted cubic splines, and a linear mixed-effects model was used to evaluate FI development speed. Weighted quantile regression was used to identify the primary contributing factors. RESULTS: Four classes of changes in the TyG-BMI and two FI trajectories were identified. Individuals in the third (OR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.10-1.42) and fourth (OR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.61-2.09) quartiles of baseline TyG-BMI, those with consistently second to highest (OR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.32-1.70) and the highest (OR = 2.17, 95% CI: 1.84-2.56) TyG-BMI changes, and those in the third (OR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.05-1.36) and fourth (OR = 1.94, 95% CI: 1.70-2.22) quartiles of the cumulative TyG-BMI had greater odds of experiencing a rapid FI trajectory. Higher frail risk was noted in those in the fourth quartile of baseline TyG-BMI (HR = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.28-1.58), with consistently second to highest (HR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.12-1.34) and the highest TyG-BMI changes (HR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.42-1.77), and those in the third (HR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.00-1.21) and fourth quartile of cumulative TyG-BMI (HR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.33-1.60). Participants with persistently second-lowest to the highest TyG-BMI changes (ß = 0.15, 0.38 and 0.76 respectively) and those experiencing the third to fourth cumulative TyG-BMI (ß = 0.25 and 0.56, respectively) demonstrated accelerated FI progression. A U-shaped association was observed between TyG-BMI levels and both rapid FI trajectory and higher frail risk, with BMI being the primary factor. CONCLUSION: A higher TyG-BMI is associated with the rapid development of FI trajectory and a greater frail risk. However, excessively low TyG-BMI levels also appear to contribute to frail development. Maintaining a healthy TyG-BMI, especially a healthy BMI, may help prevent or delay the frail onset.

Trajectories of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratios during neoadjuvant chemotherapy correlate with short- and long-term outcomes in gastric cancer: a group-based trajectory analysis.

BACKGROUND: Systemic inflammatory factors can predict the survival prognosis of gastric cancer (GC) patients after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT). However, whether longitudinal changes in systemic inflammatory factors are associated with short - and long-term outcomes has not been reported. METHODS: This study is a retrospective analysis of 216 patients with advanced gastric cancer who received NACT between January 2011 and June 2019, comparing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for screening suitable inflammatory markers. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was used to analyze longitudinal changes in inflammatory markers during NACT to identify different potential subgroups and to compare postoperative complications, recurrence-free survival (RFS), and overall survival (OS) among subgroups. RESULTS: Ultimately, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) had the highest area under the curve (AUC) value in predicting prognosis was included in the GBTM analysis. Three trajectories of NLR were obtained: Stable group (SG) (n = 89), Ascent-descend group (ADG) (n = 80) and Continuous descend group (CDG) (n = 47). Compared with SG, ADG and CDG are associated with an increased risk of postoperative recurrence and death. The median time of RFS and OS of SG was longer than that of ADG and CDG (median RFS 81 vs. 44 and 22 months; median OS 69 vs. 41 and 30 months). In addition, CDG had significantly higher postoperative serious complications than SG and ADG (17 (36.2%) vs. 17 (19.1%) and 12 (15.0%); p = 0.005). CONCLUSION: There were different trajectories of NLR during NACT, and these potential trajectories were significantly associated with severe postoperative complications, recurrence, and mortality in patients with GC.

Uses of antiseizure medication among pregnant women with epilepsy and risk of adverse obstetric outcomes: A group-based trajectory analysis.

OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to examine the association between different patterns of antiseizure medication (ASM) use during pregnancy and adverse obstetric outcomes (preterm birth, low birth weight [LBW], and small for gestational age [SGA]). METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used the Birth Certificate Application and National Health Insurance data in Taiwan (January 1, 2004 through December 31, 2018). We retrieved weekly ASM among pregnant women with epilepsy who were prepregnancy chronic users and used group-based trajectory modeling to identify distinct patterns of use. Logistic regressions were adopted to examine the association between patterns of ASM use and risk of preterm birth, LBW, and SGA. In addition, we revealed postnatal ASM utilization pattern among these prepregnancy chronic users as an exploratory study. RESULTS: Of 2175 pregnant women with epilepsy, we identified four patterns of ASM use during pregnancy: frequent and continuous (64.87%), frequent but discontinuous (7.08%), intermittent (19.72%), and intermittent and discontinuous users (8.32%). Compared to frequent and continuous users, the adjusted odds ratios for preterm birth in frequent but discontinuous, intermittent, and intermittent and discontinuous users were .83 (95% confidence interval [CI] = .47-1.48), .71 (95% CI = .47-1.05), and .88 (95% CI = .52-1.49), respectively. Similar results were observed for LBW and SGA. In the exploratory study, we found that most of our study subjects maintained the same patterns before and after delivery. SIGNIFICANCE: After considering duration and timing of exposure, our study did not find an association between four distinct patterns of ASM use and adverse obstetric outcomes among women with epilepsy. The findings suggested that optimal seizure control could be received for pregnant women with epilepsy after evaluating the risks and benefits.

Sex differences in cognitive function trajectories and their determinants in older adults: Evidence from the Chinese longitudinal healthy longevity survey.

OBJECTIVES: To examine sex differences in the cognitive trajectories of a nationally representative sample of older people living in China and to explore potential determinants of these trajectories. METHODS: The study included 2230 women and 2171 men who were cognitively healthy and aged over 60 at the first observation from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey based on the 2008-2018 cohort. Cognitive function was measured using the Chinese version of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify potential heterogeneity of longitudinal changes over the 10 years in each gender. Logistic regression was used to investigate associations between baseline characteristics (age, education, fertility history, sleep length, physical activity, and health status and behaviors) and trajectory classes. RESULTS: Three trajectories (labeled stable, slow decline, and rapid decline) were identified according to the changes in MMSE scores for both women and men. For the women, both the slow and rapid decline groups accounted for a larger proportion (14.7% and 11.0%, respectively) than the male decline groups (8.1% and 6.6%, respectively), and the women had a lower baseline MMSE score with a faster decline. In the multivariable logistic regression analyses, older age, less education, older age at first birth, poorer functional abilities, hearing impairment, and lower baseline MMSE scores were significantly associated with cognitive decline in both the female and male groups compared to the stable group. For the women, sleeping over 9 h was also associated with a rapid cognitive decline trajectory, while current exercise and being overweight/obese were protective factors against cognitive decline. CONCLUSIONS: The women had an overall more serious cognitive decline than men. The potential determinants of cognitive decline identified in this study could be considered for developing specific intervention strategies aimed at promoting a healthy brain and preventing cognitive decline in different sexes, especially in low-income and developing countries.

Longitudinal patterns of patient-reported sleep disturbances after surgery for lung cancer.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to identify longitudinal heterogeneous trajectories of sleep status, adjusted for the effect of pain over time, among patients who had surgery for lung cancer and to quantify how disturbed sleep in the hospital affects functional recovery after discharge. METHODS: We included patients from a surgical cohort (CN-PRO-Lung 1). All patients reported symptoms using the MD Anderson Symptom Inventory-Lung Cancer (MDASI-LC) daily during postoperative hospitalization. Group-based dual trajectory modeling was used to investigate trajectories of disturbed sleep and pain during the first 7 days of postoperative hospitalization. Cox regression was used to compare the recovery of walking ability between the different sleep trajectories. RESULTS: Among 421 patients, disturbed sleep trajectories comprised low (31%), moderate (52%), and high (17%) groups. The surgical approach and number of chest tubes were associated with pain, and the number of chest tubes was also associated with sleep disturbances (OR = 1.99; 95% CI: 1.08-3.67). Recovery of walking ability after discharge was significantly slower in the high (median days = 16; 95% CI: 5-NA) and moderate disturbed sleep trajectory groups (median days = 5; 95%CI: 4-6) than in the low group (median days = 3; 95% CI: 3-4). CONCLUSION: Changes in disturbed sleep among patients with lung cancer followed three distinct trajectories over the first 7 days of hospitalization after surgery. Dual trajectory analyses highlighted the high concordance between specific trajectories of disturbed sleep and pain. Patients at high sleep disturbance and high levels of pain may benefit from appropriate interventions for both symptoms in combination with the patient's surgical approach and the number of chest tubes.

Association between the trajectory of ideal cardiovascular health metrics and incident chronic kidney disease among 27,635 older adults in northern China-a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of relevant studies evaluating the long-term impact of cardiovascular health factor (CVH) metrics on chronic kidney disease (CKD). OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the long-term change in CVH metrics in older people and explores the relationship between CVH metrics trajectory and CKD. METHODS: In total, 27,635 older people aged over 60 from the community-based Tianjin Chronic Kidney Disease Cohort study were enrolled. The participants completed five annual physical examinations between January 01, 2014, and December 31, 2018, and a subsequent follow-up between January 01, 2019, and December 31, 2021. CVH metrics trajectories were established by the group-based trajectory model to predict CKD risk. The relationships between baseline CVH, CVH change (ΔCVH), and CKD risk were also explored by logistic regression and restricted cubic spline regression model. In addition, likelihood ratio tests were used to compare the goodness of fit of the different models. RESULTS: Six distinct CVH metrics trajectories were identified among the participants: low-stable (11.19%), low-medium-stable (30.58%), medium-stable (30.54%), medium-high-decreased (5.46%), medium-high-stable (18.93%), and high-stable (3.25%). After adjustment for potential confounders, higher CVH metrics trajectory was associated with decreased risk of CKD (P for trend < 0.001). Comparing the high-stable with the low-stable group, the risk of CKD decreased by 46%. All sensitivity analyses, including adjusting for baseline CVH and removing each CVH component from the total CVH, produced consistent results. Furthermore, the likelihood ratio test revealed that the model established by the CVH trajectory fit better than the baseline CVH and Δ CVH. CONCLUSION: The higher CVH metrics trajectory and improvement of CVH metrics were associated with decreased risk of CKD. This study emphasized the importance of improving CVH to achieve primary prevention of CKD in older people.

Association between nintedanib adherence trajectory and healthcare use among idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis patients.

BACKGROUND: Although inverse associations have been found between medication adherence and healthcare use and spending outcomes in many clinical settings, no studies to date have examined these relationships for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) initiating nintedanib. We build on our prior study that used group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) to compare inpatient hospitalization and medical care spending outcomes between groups of patients with different nintedanib adherence trajectories. METHODS: This analysis used 100% Medicare data and included beneficiaries with IPF who initiated nintedanib during 10/01/2014-12/31/2018. The sample consisted of community-dwelling older adults (≥ 66 years) with continuous coverage in Medicare Parts A (inpatient care), B (outpatient care) and D (prescription drugs) for one year before (baseline) and after (follow-up) initiating nintedanib. Patients were assigned to the GBTM-derived adherence trajectory group closest to their own nintedanib adherence experience. All-cause and IPF-related hospitalization events and total medical spending were measured during the follow-up period. Unadjusted and adjusted regression models were estimated to compare outcomes between patients in different nintedanib adherence trajectories. RESULTS: Among the 1,798 patients initiating nintedanib, the mean age was 75.4 years, 61.1% were male, and 91.1% were non-Hispanic white. The best-fitting GBTM had five adherence trajectories: high adherence, moderate adherence, high-then-poor adherence, delayed-poor adherence, and early-poor adherence. All-cause hospitalizations and total all-cause medical spending were higher among patients in the high-then-poor, delayed-poor and early-poor adherence trajectories than those in the high adherence trajectory. For example, adjusted total all-cause medical spending was $4,876 (95% CI: $1,470 to $8,282) higher in the high-then-poor adherence trajectory, $3,639 (95% CI: $1,322 to $5,955) higher in the delayed-poor adherence trajectory and $3,907 (95% CI: $1,658 to $6,156) higher in the early-poor adherence trajectory compared with the high adherence trajectory. IPF-related hospitalizations and medical care spending were higher among those in the high-then-poor adherence trajectory compared with those in the high adherence trajectory. CONCLUSIONS: Poor adherence to nintedanib was associated with all-cause hospitalizations and medical costs. Therefore, improved adherence programs, such as support programs, can be implemented to reduce economic burden.

Trajectories of anxiety and depression among Chinese men who have sex with men on pre-exposure prophylaxis: a group-based trajectory model approach.

BACKGROUND: Anxiety and depression can influence adherence to Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP). However, there is limited research on the temporal dynamics of anxiety and depression among men who have sex with men (MSM) using PrEP. METHODS: From December 2018 to November 2020, we administered the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) to participants in the China Real-World Oral Intake of PrEP (CROPrEP) to measure their anxiety and depression levels. The group-based trajectory model (GBTM) depicted the dynamic changes of anxiety and depression scores over time. RESULTS: A total of 1023 MSM were included, with 4523 follow-up assessments. The GBTM categorized the trajectories into three distinct patterns: consistently low (54.8% for anxiety, 60.7% for depression), consistently moderate (39.3% for anxiety, 31.4% for depression), and high but bell-shaped (5.9% for anxiety, 7.9% for depression). Higher anxiety levels were associated with being aged 18-30 years old, earning less than US$619 per month, female-identifying, adopting the bottom sexual role with men, and having two or more anal sex partners in the past three months; similarly, higher depression levels correlated with a monthly income under US$619, female-identifying, sexual behavior as bottom and a positive syphilis at baseline. PrEP adherence was notably lower in the high but bell-shaped anxiety and depression group compared to the other groups, particularly at the 12th-month follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Close monitoring of anxiety and depression levels in MSM on PrEP is crucial. Provision of targeted mental health support is essential to enhance PrEP effectiveness.

Effect of social participation on the trajectories of activities of daily living disability among community-dwelling older adults: a 7-year community-based cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Studies examining the effects of social participation on activities of daily living (ADL) disability are still scarce. AIM: To assess the reciprocal relationship between ADL disability trajectories and social participation among older Chinese people aged ≥ 60 years. METHODS: This study included 2976 participants aged ≥ 60 years in six waves of a community-based survey from 2015 to 2022. Basic activities of daily living (BADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) were used to assess the ADL disability in each survey. Social participation was assessed by involvement in four social activities and an extensive social participation score. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify potential heterogeneity in longitudinal changes over 7 years and explore associations between baseline predictors of group membership and these trajectories. RESULTS: Two BADL disability trajectories were identified: stable (94.8%) and increase (5.2%). Additionally, three IADL disability trajectories were distinguished: stable (73.2%), moderate (20.2%), and increase (6.6%). After controlling for the potential covariates, each point increase in the extensive social participation score correlated with a 17% decrease in the odds of older individuals belonging to the increase BADL trajectory group (OR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.68-1.00). For IADL, it decreased the odds of being assigned to the moderate trajectory group by 16% (OR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.75-0.95) and to the increase trajectory group by 23% (OR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.64-0.93). CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of social participation among older individuals were more likely to be classified as stable trajectories in both BADL and IADL. Increased participation in social activities by community-dwelling elderly adults may promote healthy aging.

The risk of acute and early HIV (AEH) infection among MSM with different behaviour trajectories: an open cohort study in Tianjin, China, 2011-2019.

BACKGROUND: Acute and early HIV (AEH) infection is characterized by a high viral load and infectivity. Approximately 50% of cases of HIV-1 transmission occur during AEH. Understanding sexual behaviour trajectories would be useful for predicting changes in the risk of HIV acquisition. However, few studies have investigated sexual behaviour trajectories and their association with AEH acquisition. This study identified behaviour trajectories among men who have sex with men (MSM), determined the risk of AEH infection, and compared risk factors between different behaviour trajectories. METHODS: The study was based on an ongoing prospective open cohort of voluntary HIV counselling and testing (VHCT) among MSM in Tianjin, China. From 2011 to 2019, 1974 MSM were recruited. Group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM) was used to identify behaviour trajectories by constructing a sexual risk behaviour score. Logistic regression and generalized estimating equation (GEE) were used to compare the risk of AEH infection and risk factors for different behaviour trajectories. All data analyses were performed using SAS 9.4. RESULTS: The incidence of AEH infection was 1.76/100 person-years, with 64 AEH infections documented in 3633 person-years of follow-up. Three sexual behaviour trajectories were identified: CL (consistently low risk, 35.46%), CH (consistently high risk, 42.71%) and HTL (high to low risk, 21.83%). MSM in the HTL and CH groups had higher AEH infection rates than MSM in the CL group (6.73%, 3.08% and 1.28%, respectively), with ORs of 5.54 (2.60, 11.82) and 2.44 (1.14, 5.25), respectively. MSM aged 30-50 years old and MSM who underwent HIV testing in the last year were more likely to be in the CH group and HTL group. In addition, the HTL group was characterized by a lower likelihood of local registration and a higher likelihood of working as a MSW. CONCLUSION: MSM in the CH group and the HTL group had a higher risk of AEH infection. In the future, VHCT should be performed more often among younger MSM, and HIV counselling should be given the same priority as HIV testing. In addition, VHCT combined with PrEP may have a better preventive impact on MSM with a high risk of AEH infection.

Frailty index trajectories in Chinese older adults with diverse levels of social participation: findings from a national population-based longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Aging and frailty pose significant challenges globally, placing a substantial burden on healthcare and social services due to their adverse consequences. AIM: The primary objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between social participation and development of frailty transition and trajectory. METHODS: This study utilized data from the CLHLS Cohort, a 10-year follow-up study involving 6713 participants, to investigate the association between social participation and development of frailty. Frailty reflects a comprehensive decline in various body functions. The study employed a group-based trajectory model to analyze the development trajectory of the frailty index and used logistic regression to assess the odds ratio (OR) of frailty risk. RESULTS: We identified two distinct groups of frailty progression trajectories: the "stable development group" and the "rapid growth group." Individuals who engaged in social activities at least once a month, but not daily, exhibited a significant association with an increased risk of transitioning into the "rapid growth group" (OR 1.305, 95% CI 1.032-1.649). Those with social participation less than once a month had an even greater risk (OR 1.872, 95% CI 1.423-2.463). Moreover, low social participation frequency (occasionally/never) has a more pronounced impact on frailty progression in males. CONCLUSION: A higher frequency of social participation is associated with a lower risk of being classified into the "rapid growth group" and a slower rate of frailty index progression. Preventing the progression of frailty can contribute to enhanced support for healthy aging among older adults.

Measuring the worldwide spread of COVID-19 using a comprehensive modeling method.

BACKGROUND: With the global spread of COVID-19, detecting high-risk countries/regions timely and dynamically is essential; therefore, we sought to develop automatic, quantitative and scalable analysis methods to observe and estimate COVID-19 spread worldwide and further generate reliable and timely decision-making support for public health management using a comprehensive modeling method based on multiple mathematical models. METHODS: We collected global COVID-19 epidemic data reported from January 23 to September 30, 2020, to observe and estimate its possible spread trends. Countries were divided into three outbreak levels: high, middle, and low. Trends analysis was performed by calculating the growth rate, and then country grouping was implemented using group-based trajectory modeling on the three levels. Individual countries from each group were also chosen to further disclose the outbreak situations using two predicting models: the logistic growth model and the SEIR model. RESULTS: All 187 observed countries' trajectory subgroups were identified using two grouping strategies: with and without population consideration. By measuring epidemic trends and predicting the epidemic size and peak of individual countries, our study found that the logistic growth model generally estimated a smaller epidemic size than the SEIR model. According to SEIR modeling, confirmed cases in each country would take an average of 9-12 months to reach the outbreak peak from the day the first case occurred. Additionally, the average number of cases at the peak time will reach approximately 10-20% of the countries' populations, and the countries with high trends and a high predicted size must pay special attention and implement public health interventions in a timely manner. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated comprehensive observations and predictions of the COVID-19 outbreak in 187 countries using a comprehensive modeling method. The methods proposed in this study can measure COVID-19 development from multiple perspectives and are generalizable to other epidemic diseases. Furthermore, the methods also provide reliable and timely decision-making support for public health management.

Trajectories of physical frailty and cognitive impairment in older adults in United States nursing homes.

BACKGROUND: U.S. nursing homes provide long-term care to over 1.2 million older adults, 60% of whom were physically frail and 68% had moderate or severe cognitive impairment. Limited research has examined the longitudinal experience of these two conditions in older nursing home residents. METHODS: This national longitudinal study included newly-admitted non-skilled nursing care older residents who had Minimum Data Set (MDS) 3.0 (2014-16) assessments at admission, 3 months, and 6 months (n = 266,001). Physical frailty was measured by FRAIL-NH and cognitive impairment by the Brief Interview for Mental Status. Separate sets of group-based trajectory models were fitted to identify the trajectories of physical frailty and trajectories of cognitive impairment, and to estimate the association between older residents' characteristics at admission with each set of trajectories. A dual trajectory model was used to quantify the association between the physical frailty trajectories and cognitive impairment trajectories. RESULTS: Over the course of the first six months post-admission, five physical frailty trajectories ["Consistently Frail" (prevalence: 53.0%), "Consistently Pre-frail" (29.0%), "Worsening Frailty" (7.6%), "Improving Frailty" (5.5%), and "Consistently Robust" (4.8%)] and three cognitive impairment trajectories ["Consistently Severe Cognitive Impairment" (35.5%), "Consistently Moderate Cognitive Impairment" (31.8%), "Consistently Intact/Mild Cognitive Impairment" (32.7%)] were identified. One in five older residents simultaneously followed the trajectories of "Consistently Frail" and "Consistently Severe Cognitive Impairment". Characteristics associated with higher odds of the "Improving Frailty", "Worsening Frailty", "Consistently Pre-frail" and "Consistently Frail" trajectories included greater at-admission cognitive impairment, age ≥ 85 years, admitted from acute hospitals, cardiovascular/metabolic diagnoses, neurological diagnoses, hip or other fractures, and presence of pain. Characteristics associated with higher odds of the "Consistently Moderate Cognitive Impairment" and "Consistently Severe Cognitive Impairment" included worse at-admission physical frailty, neurological diagnoses, hip fracture, and receipt of antipsychotics. CONCLUSIONS: Findings provided information regarding the trajectories of physical frailty, the trajectories of cognitive impairment, the association between the two sets of trajectories, and their association with residents' characteristics in older adults' first six months post-admission to U.S. nursing homes. Understanding the trajectory that the residents would most likely follow may provide information to develop a comprehensive care approach tailored to their specific healthcare goals.

Investigating the prescribing trajectory and geographical drug utilisation patterns of gabapentinoids in primary care in England: An ecological study.

AIMS: This study aimed to investigate the prescribing trajectory, geographical variation and population factors, including socioeconomic status (SES), related to prescribing gabapentinoids in primary care in England. METHODS: This ecological study applied practice-level dispensing data and statistics from the UK National Health Service Digital and Office for National Statistics from 2013 to 2019. The prescribing of gabapentinoids (in defined daily doses [DDDs]/1000 people) was measured annually and quarterly. General practices were categorised according to the quarterly prescribing in a group-based trajectory model. The one-year prescribing in 2018/19 was associated with practice-level covariates in a mixed-effects multilevel regression, adjusted for the cluster-effects of Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) and mapped geographically. RESULTS: The annual national prescription rate increased by 70% from 2800 to 4773 DDDs/1000 people in the time period 2013/14 to 2018/19. General practices were stratified into six trajectory groups. Practices with the highest level and the greatest increase in prescribing (n = 789; 9.8%) are mainly located in the north of England and along the east and south coastline. Socioeconomic status, demographic characteristics and relevant disease conditions were significantly associated with the prescribing. For every decrease in the Index of Multiple Deprivation decile (becoming less affluent), prescribing of gabapentinoids increased significantly by 203 (95% CI: 183-222) DDDs/1000 registrants. CONCLUSIONS: Gabapentinoid prescribing trajectories varied across geographical regions and are associated with socioeconomic status, CCG locality (geography) and other population characteristics. These factors should be considered in future studies investigating the determinants of gabapentinoid prescribing and the risk of harms associated with gabapentinoids.

Trajectories of cognitive function and their determinants in older people: 12 years of follow-up in the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive decline in advanced age is closely related to dementia. The trajectory of cognitive function in older Chinese is yet to be fully investigated. We aimed to investigate the trajectories of cognitive function in a nationally representative sample of older people living in China and to explore the potential determinants of these trajectories. METHODS: This study included 2,038 cognitively healthy persons aged 65-104 years at their first observation in the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey from 2002 to 2014. Cognitive function was measured using the Chinese version of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify potential heterogeneity of longitudinal changes over the 12 years and to investigate associations between baseline predictors of group membership and these trajectories. RESULTS: Three trajectories were identified according to the following types of changes in MMSE scores: slow decline (14.0%), rapid decline (4.5%), and stable function (81.5%). Older age, female gender, having no schooling, a low frequency of leisure activity, and a low baseline MMSE score were associated with the slow decline trajectory. Older age, body mass index (BMI) less than 18.5 kg/m2, and having more than one cardiovascular disease (CVD) were associated with the rapid decline trajectory. CONCLUSION: Three trajectories of cognitive function were identified in the older Chinese population. The identified determinants of these trajectories could be targeted for developing prevention and intervention strategies for dementia.

Heterogeneity in the dynamic arousal and modulation of fear in young foster children.

Guided by emotional security theory, we explored how child and context-related factors were associated with heterogeneity in young foster children's organized patterns of fear response to distress. Results from group-based trajectory modeling used to analyze observational data from a fear-eliciting task showed that children from our sample (mean age = 62 months, SD = 9) were classified into 3 specific fear regulation patterns differentiated by the emotional response parameters of onset intensity, peak intensity, and rise time. A descriptive examination of child's emotion knowledge, aggressive behaviors, and attention problems, as well as length of time in current foster home, placement transitions, and caregiver responsiveness and modeling showed class-specific differences in means. Moreover, the likelihood of class membership was significantly predicted by children's emotion knowledge, aggressive behaviors, and foster mothers' responsiveness and modeling of appropriate boundaries. Results show promising support for the implementation of individualized, child-directed interventions targeting specific patterns of response parameters of emotion regulation for young foster children. Further, parenting intervention services need to promote the emotion socialization skills of foster parents that are tailored toward each specific trajectory pattern of emotion arousal and modulation.

The Trajectories of the Number of Pain Sites and Their Associated Factors in Older Adults: Results from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

BACKGROUND: The aging of the population will result in an increase in demand for pain management. Pain adversely affects physical and mental functioning in older adults and accounts for a considerable proportion of all medical expenses. OBJECTIVES: This study was performed to investigate the patterns of changes in the trajectories of the number of pain sites in older adults and the factors that affect these patterns according to gender. METHODS: Data were extracted for subjects that participated in the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing from 2006 to 2014. The study population consisted of 2,839 individuals (1,190 men and 1,649 women) ≥60 years old. A group-based trajectory model was used to determine the optimal number of subgroups and the trajectories of the number of pain sites according to gender. A multinomial regression analysis was conducted to identify factors that affect the probability of inclusion in each trajectory group. RESULTS: The trajectories of the number of pain sites were consistent in both genders. Almost all women had one or more pain symptom, and a greater number of pain sites than men. Older age, longest-duration occupation requiring manual labor, lack of physical activity, depressive symptoms, and poor self-rated health were associated with a greater number of pain sites in both genders. A lower level of education, married status, and experience of injury were associated with the number of pain sites in men but not in women, while household income and chronic diseases were associated with the number of pain sites only in women. CONCLUSIONS: The pain status at the early stage is predictive of future pain. In this study, we identified gender differences in the trends of the number of pain sites and associated factors. Further comprehensive studies on pain intensity and duration are required.

Gender differences in the trajectories and the risk factors of depressive symptoms in later life.

BACKGROUND: The present study investigated changes in the trajectories of depressive symptoms in the elderly and attempted to identify risk factors that influence these changes according to gender. METHODS: All data were obtained from a subsample of subjects who participated in the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing between 2006 and 2012; 3,667 individuals (1,566 men and 2,101 women) aged 60 years and older were included in the present study. A group-based trajectory model was employed to determine the appropriate number of groups and to observe changes in depressive symptoms according to research year. Following the trajectory analysis, a multinomial regression analysis was performed to examine depressive symptom-related risk factors that influenced membership in the different trajectory groups. RESULTS: Significant gender differences were found in the trajectories of depressive symptoms among four groups (normal, mild depressed, worsening, and depressed) in men and five groups (normal, mild depressed, worsening, improving, and depressed) in women. Among the trajectory groups, physical health status such as chronic diseases, self-rated health (SRH), and somatic pain showed statistically significant differences in both genders. In addition, employment in men and social participation in women were associated with the trajectories. CONCLUSIONS: The present study suggested that maintaining one's physical health status played an important role in preventing depressive symptoms and that employment in men and social participation in women were preventative against the development of depressive symptoms.

Dual Trajectories of Depression and Cognition: A Longitudinal Population-Based Study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationships over time between dual trajectories of depressive symptoms and several cognitive domains. METHODS: In a 5-year longitudinal study, 1,978 randomly selected individuals aged 65+ years at recruitment were assessed annually. Repeated measures were of depressive symptoms on the modified Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale and composite scores in the cognitive domains of attention, executive function, memory, language, and visuospatial function. Latent class trajectories were identified for depression and for each cognitive domain and their associations investigated using dual trajectory modeling. Cognitive trajectories with z scores below -1 were designated as persistently low. RESULTS: Five depressive symptom trajectories were observed: rarely depressed (60.5%); low-grade, decreasing symptoms (18.5%); low-grade, increasing symptoms (9.6%); moderate-grade symptoms (7.4%); and consistent higher-grade symptoms (4.0%). For each cognitive domain six trajectories were observed. The rarely depressed and low-grade decreasing symptom groups were the least likely to have persistently low cognition. The symptom trajectory most strongly associated with persistently low functioning in each domain was not the higher-grade group but rather the low-grade increasing group in the case of attention and the moderate-grade trajectory in the other four domains. CONCLUSION: Consistently higher-grade depressive symptoms are less strongly associated with poor cognitive functioning than with either moderate- or low-grade increasing depressive symptom trajectories, over time and across different domains. Examining both depression and cognition longitudinally allows heterogeneity of both to be addressed, revealing latent groups with potential diagnostic and prognostic implications.

Trajectories of Opioid Use Before and After Cancer Diagnosis: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Opioid use prior to cancer diagnosis increases the likelihood of long-term use during survivorship, however, patterns of use before and after diagnosis are not understood. METHODS: We used population-based dispensing data linked with cancer and death notifications to identify two cohorts of adults residing in New South Wales initiating opioids within 24 months prior to a first cancer diagnosed between 2014 and 2016: 'survivors' (alive 24 months following diagnosis) and 'decedents' (died within 24 months). We used group-based trajectory modelling to identify trajectories of monthly opioid dispensings and dispensed oral morphine equivalent milligrams (OMEmg) during the 24 months before/after cancer diagnosis. RESULTS: There were 21,843 survivors with four prediagnosis opioid dispensing trajectories: infrequent (58% of the cohort), late increasing (26%), moderate (10%), and sustained dispensing (6%). We observed an overall increase in dispensed OMEmg of 83 OMEmg (95% CI: 76-91) during the month of diagnosis, with strong opioid formulations comprising most treatment postdiagnosis. Within each prediagnosis opioid trajectory group, we observed five to six postdiagnosis trajectory groups, including no opioid dispensing. Moderate and sustained prediagnosis groups had large proportions of people continuing or increasing opioid dispensing after diagnosis, while small proportions discontinued opioid treatment. We observed similar trajectories in the decedent cohort. CONCLUSIONS: There is considerable heterogeneity in opioid use before and after cancer diagnosis. Our findings suggest noncancer factors drive a significant proportion of postdiagnosis opioid use, but use increased significantly from the month of cancer diagnosis and never returned to prediagnosis levels.