Spatial-temporal potential exposure risk analytics and urban sustainability impacts related to COVID-19 mitigation: A perspective from car mobility behaviour.

Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) poses a significant threat to the population and urban sustainability worldwide. The surge mitigation is complicated and associates many factors, including the pandemic status, policy, socioeconomics and resident behaviours. Modelling and analytics with spatial-temporal big urban data are required to assist the mitigation of the pandemic. This study proposes a novel perspective to analyse the spatial-temporal potential exposure risk of residents by capturing human behaviours based on spatial-temporal car park availability data. Near real-time data from 1,904 residential car parks in Singapore, a classical megacity, are collected to analyse car mobility and its spatial-temporal heat map. The implementation of the circuit breaker, a COVID-19 measure, in Singapore has reduced the mobility and heat (daily frequency of mobility) significantly at about 30.0%. It contributes to a 44.3%-55.4% reduction in the transportation-related air emissions under two scenarios of travelling distance reductions. Urban sustainability impacts in both environment and economy are discussed. The spatial-temporal potential exposure risk mapping with space-time interactions is further investigated via an extended Bayesian spatial-temporal regression model. The maximal reduction rate of the defined potential exposure risk lowers to 37.6% by comparison with its peak value. The big data analytics of changes in car mobility behaviour and the resultant potential exposure risks can provide insights to assist in (a) designing a flexible circuit breaker exit strategy, (b) precise management via identifying and tracing hotspots on the mobility heat map, and (c) making timely decisions by fitting curves dynamically in different phases of COVID-19 mitigation. The proposed method has the potential to be used by decision-makers worldwide with available data to make flexible regulations and planning.

Impact of lockdown on Covid-19 case fatality rate and viral mutations spread in 7 countries in Europe and North America.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome CoV-2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in China and has become a public health emergency of international concern. SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has been declared a pandemic by WHO on March 11th, 2020 and the same month several Countries put in place different lockdown restrictions and testing strategies in order to contain the spread of the virus. METHODS: The calculation of the Case Fatality Rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Countries selected was made by using the data available at https://github.com/owid/covi-19-data/tree/master/public/data . Case fatality rate was calculated as the ratio between the death cases due to COVID-19, over the total number of SARS-CoV-2 reported cases 14 days before. Standard Case Fatality Rate values were normalized by the Country-specific ρ factor, i.e. the number of PCR tests/1 million inhabitants over the number of reported cases/1 million inhabitants. Case-fatality rates between Countries were compared using proportion test. Post-hoc analysis in the case of more than two groups was performed using pairwise comparison of proportions and p value was adjusted using Holm method. We also analyzed 487 genomic sequences from the GISAID database derived from patients infected by SARS-CoV-2 from January 2020 to April 2020 in Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Sweden, UK and USA. SARS-CoV-2 reference genome was obtained from the GenBank database (NC_045512.2). Genomes alignment was performed using Muscle and Jalview software. We, then, calculated the Case Fatality Rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Countries selected. RESULTS: In this study we analyse how different lockdown strategies and PCR testing capability adopted by Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Sweden, UK and USA have influenced the Case Fatality Rate and the viral mutations spread. We calculated case fatality rates by dividing the death number of a specific day by the number of patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection observed 14 days before and normalized by a ρ factor which takes into account the diagnostic PCR testing capability of each Country and the number of positive cases detected. We notice the stabilization of a clear pattern of mutations at sites nt241, nt3037, nt14408 and nt23403. A novel nonsynonymous SARS-CoV-2 mutation in the spike protein (nt24368) has been found in genomes sequenced in Sweden, which enacted a soft lockdown strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Strict lockdown strategies together with a wide diagnostic PCR testing of the population were correlated with a relevant decline of the case fatality rate in different Countries. The emergence of specific patterns of mutations concomitant with the decline in case fatality rate needs further confirmation and their biological significance remains unclear.

Strict Lockdown versus Flexible Social Distance Strategy for COVID-19 Disease: a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

Objectives: To balance the costs and effects comparing a strict lockdown versus a flexible social distancing strategy for societies affected by Coronavirus-19 Disease (COVID-19). Design: Cost-effectiveness analysis. Participants: We used societal data and COVID-19 mortality rates from the public domain. Interventions: The intervention was a strict lockdown strategy that has been followed by Denmark. Reference strategy was flexible social distancing policy as was applied by Sweden. We derived mortality rates from COVID-19 national statistics, assumed the expected life years lost from each COVID-19 death to be 11 years and calculated lost life years until 31st August 2020. Expected economic costs were derived from gross domestic productivity (GDP) statistics from each country's official statistics bureau and forecasted GDP. The incremental financial costs of the strict lockdown were calculated by comparing Sweden with Denmark using externally available market information. Calculations were projected per one million inhabitants. In sensitivity analyses we varied the total cost of the lockdown (range -50% to +100%). Main Outcome Measure: Financial costs per life years saved. Results: In Sweden, the number of people who died with COVID-19 was 577 per million inhabitants, resulting in an estimated 6,350 life years lost per million inhabitants. In Denmark, where a strict lockdown strategy was installed for months, the number of people dying with COVID-19 was on average 111 per million, resulting in an estimated 1,216 life years per million inhabitants lost. The incremental costs of strict lockdown to save one life year was US$ 137,285, and higher in most of the sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: Comparisons of public health interventions for COVID-19 should take into account life years saved and not only lost lives. Strict lockdown costs more than US$ 130,000 per life year saved. As our all our assumptions were in favour of strict lockdown, a flexible social distancing policy in response to COVID19 is defendable.

Global Financial Crisis, Smart Lockdown Strategies, and the COVID-19 Spillover Impacts: A Global Perspective Implications From Southeast Asia.

This present study primarily emphasizes to seek the COVID-19 adverse impacts posing health challenges and global economic crisis. The pandemic (COVID-19) continues to hit the global economies adversely. Pakistan is the 5th-most-populous nation, and recorded positive cases with the third-highest positivity ratio in South Asia, and 26th-highest deaths toll of 21,450 and 29th number of most COVID-19 positive cases with 933,750 worldwide, as of June 6, 2021. The first wave appeared at the end of May 2020, and mid of June reported its peak, which ended by mid-July 2020. Early November 2020 witnessed the second wave with low intensity reached the climax by mid-December. The COVID-19's third wave severely affected the country during mid-March 2021. It exhibited the highest positivity rate, around 20%. New positive patients and deaths toll commenced to skyrocket and reported peak by April 15, 2021. Then situation gradually improved with effective measures and restrictions. The pandemic coronavirus (COVID-19) has affected 220 territories, regions, and countries and resulted in more than 174.116 million infections, deaths, 3.75 million, and 157.157 million positive cases fully recovered from this infectious disease, as of June 7, 2021. The pandemic has caused a severe crisis of healthcare facilities and economic challenges worldwide. Pakistani economy reported GPD's negative growth (-0.05) for the first time over the last 60 years in 2020, which caused a massive financial crisis. The Government's relief package intervened to reduce public mental stress and improve the quality of their lives. IMF reported that Pakistan's GPD bounced back at 4% growth by June 2021. This article determines that economic instability and health burden happened in Pakistan for a longer time than financial disequilibrium that occurred globally. Pakistan encountered this crisis due to its feeble healthcare systems and fragile economy. This study explores adverse health issues and spillover consequences on the economic crisis in Pakistan with global implications. It recommends smart lockdown restrictions in most affected areas to reopen the economic cycle with strict preventive measures to minimize the COVD-19 adverse consequences.

A Comparative Study on the Strategies Adopted by the United Kingdom, India, China, Italy, and Saudi Arabia to Contain the Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to compare the strategies adopted by the United Kingdom, Italy, China, India, and Saudi Arabia to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A review of the literature was carried out to collect data on the strategies used by China, Italy, India, the United Kingdom, and Saudi Arabia to contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus. The global analysis of 65 published literature references allowed observing the effectiveness and efficiency of the strategies used by these countries to control the spread of the COVID-19 virus. RESULTS: Both mitigation and suppression strategies were adopted by the United Kingdom, India, Italy, China, and Saudi Arabia to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. It was observed that China has achieved a greater success in flattening the curve compared to the other countries. In China, few new daily cases have occurred since March, and it has been the only country that has managed to keep the COVID-19 pandemic under control. On the other hand, reductions in the number of daily cases (since May 2020) were detected in the United Kingdom, Italy, and Saudi Arabia (since July 2020). Also, during the last 3 months (June, July and August) India has shown the highest growth in the total number of confirmed cases and in the number of new daily cases, compared to the mentioned countries. CONCLUSION: The review of the strategies adopted by China, India, the United Kingdom, Italy and Saudi Arabia to combat the COVID-19 pandemic can guide countries in the design and development of mitigation and suppression approaches to control the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Containment strategies such as lockdowns cannot continue in the long term. Therefore, countries must adopt mitigation and prevention strategies to protect people from infection and learn to live with the virus.

China's ongoing battle against the coronavirus: Why did the lockdown strategy work well?

"Why did the lockdown strategy work well in China's ongoing battle against the coronavirus pandemic?"is one of the three questions the journal editor Wei-Ning Xiang asked us to respond to from our experiences in the past several months since December 2019. At this critical juncture when the people in China are progressing on the battleground, we dedicate this communication essay to all the people fighting against the pandemic around the world.