Quantitative fate mapping: A general framework for analyzing progenitor state dynamics via retrospective lineage barcoding.

Natural and induced somatic mutations that accumulate in the genome during development record the phylogenetic relationships of cells; whether these lineage barcodes capture the complex dynamics of progenitor states remains unclear. We introduce quantitative fate mapping, an approach to reconstruct the hierarchy, commitment times, population sizes, and commitment biases of intermediate progenitor states during development based on a time-scaled phylogeny of their descendants. To reconstruct time-scaled phylogenies from lineage barcodes, we introduce Phylotime, a scalable maximum likelihood clustering approach based on a general barcoding mutagenesis model. We validate these approaches using realistic in silico and in vitro barcoding experiments. We further establish criteria for the number of cells that must be analyzed for robust quantitative fate mapping and a progenitor state coverage statistic to assess the robustness. This work demonstrates how lineage barcodes, natural or synthetic, enable analyzing progenitor fate and dynamics long after embryonic development in any organism.

Mapping transcriptomic vector fields of single cells.

Single-cell (sc)RNA-seq, together with RNA velocity and metabolic labeling, reveals cellular states and transitions at unprecedented resolution. Fully exploiting these data, however, requires kinetic models capable of unveiling governing regulatory functions. Here, we introduce an analytical framework dynamo (https://github.com/aristoteleo/dynamo-release), which infers absolute RNA velocity, reconstructs continuous vector fields that predict cell fates, employs differential geometry to extract underlying regulations, and ultimately predicts optimal reprogramming paths and perturbation outcomes. We highlight dynamo's power to overcome fundamental limitations of conventional splicing-based RNA velocity analyses to enable accurate velocity estimations on a metabolically labeled human hematopoiesis scRNA-seq dataset. Furthermore, differential geometry analyses reveal mechanisms driving early megakaryocyte appearance and elucidate asymmetrical regulation within the PU.1-GATA1 circuit. Leveraging the least-action-path method, dynamo accurately predicts drivers of numerous hematopoietic transitions. Finally, in silico perturbations predict cell-fate diversions induced by gene perturbations. Dynamo, thus, represents an important step in advancing quantitative and predictive theories of cell-state transitions.

High-precision coding in visual cortex.

Individual neurons in visual cortex provide the brain with unreliable estimates of visual features. It is not known whether the single-neuron variability is correlated across large neural populations, thus impairing the global encoding of stimuli. We recorded simultaneously from up to 50,000 neurons in mouse primary visual cortex (V1) and in higher order visual areas and measured stimulus discrimination thresholds of 0.35° and 0.37°, respectively, in an orientation decoding task. These neural thresholds were almost 100 times smaller than the behavioral discrimination thresholds reported in mice. This discrepancy could not be explained by stimulus properties or arousal states. Furthermore, behavioral variability during a sensory discrimination task could not be explained by neural variability in V1. Instead, behavior-related neural activity arose dynamically across a network of non-sensory brain areas. These results imply that perceptual discrimination in mice is limited by downstream decoders, not by neural noise in sensory representations.

Lysosomal Glycosphingolipid Storage Diseases.

Glycosphingolipids are cell-type-specific components of the outer leaflet of mammalian plasma membranes. Gangliosides, sialic acid-containing glycosphingolipids, are especially enriched on neuronal surfaces. As amphi-philic molecules, they comprise a hydrophilic oligosaccharide chain attached to a hydrophobic membrane anchor, ceramide. Whereas glycosphingolipid formation is catalyzed by membrane-bound enzymes along the secretory pathway, degradation takes place at the surface of intralysosomal vesicles of late endosomes and lysosomes catalyzed in a stepwise fashion by soluble hydrolases and assisted by small lipid-binding glycoproteins. Inherited defects of lysosomal hydrolases or lipid-binding proteins cause the accumulation of undegradable material in lysosomal storage diseases (GM1 and GM2 gangliosidosis; Fabry, Gaucher, and Krabbe diseases; and metachromatic leukodystrophy). The catabolic processes are strongly modified by the lipid composition of the substrate-carrying membranes, and the pathological accumulation of primary storage compounds can trigger an accumulation of secondary storage compounds (e.g., small glycosphingolipids and cholesterol in Niemann-Pick disease).

Repressive Gene Regulation Synchronizes Development with Cellular Metabolism.

Metabolic conditions affect the developmental tempo of animals. Developmental gene regulatory networks (GRNs) must therefore synchronize their dynamics with a variable timescale. We find that layered repression of genes couples GRN output with variable metabolism. When repressors of transcription or mRNA and protein stability are lost, fewer errors in Drosophila development occur when metabolism is lowered. We demonstrate the universality of this phenomenon by eliminating the entire microRNA family of repressors and find that development to maturity can be largely rescued when metabolism is reduced. Using a mathematical model that replicates GRN dynamics, we find that lowering metabolism suppresses the emergence of developmental errors by curtailing the influence of auxiliary repressors on GRN output. We experimentally show that gene expression dynamics are less affected by loss of repressors when metabolism is reduced. Thus, layered repression provides robustness through error suppression and may provide an evolutionary route to a shorter reproductive cycle.

Primate Amygdala Neurons Simulate Decision Processes of Social Partners.

By observing their social partners, primates learn about reward values of objects. Here, we show that monkeys' amygdala neurons derive object values from observation and use these values to simulate a partner monkey's decision process. While monkeys alternated making reward-based choices, amygdala neurons encoded object-specific values learned from observation. Dynamic activities converted these values to representations of the recorded monkey's own choices. Surprisingly, the same activity patterns unfolded spontaneously before partner's choices in separate neurons, as if these neurons simulated the partner's decision-making. These "simulation neurons" encoded signatures of mutual-inhibitory decision computation, including value comparisons and value-to-choice conversions, resulting in accurate predictions of partner's choices. Population decoding identified differential contributions of amygdala subnuclei. Biophysical modeling of amygdala circuits showed that simulation neurons emerge naturally from convergence between object-value neurons and self-other neurons. By simulating decision computations during observation, these neurons could allow primates to reconstruct their social partners' mental states.

Do hippocampal pyramidal cells respond to nonspatial stimuli?

There are currently a number of theories of rodent hippocampal function. They fall into two major groups that differ in the role they impute to space in hippocampal information processing. On one hand, the cognitive map theory sees space as crucial and central, with other types of nonspatial information embedded in a primary spatial framework. On the other hand, most other theories see the function of the hippocampal formation as broader, treating all types of information as equivalent and concentrating on the processes carried out irrespective of the specific material being represented, stored, and manipulated. One crucial difference, therefore, is the extent to which theories see hippocampal pyramidal cells as representing nonspatial information independently of a spatial framework. Studies have reported the existence of single hippocampal unit responses to nonspatial stimuli, both to simple sensory inputs as well as to more complex stimuli such as objects, conspecifics, rewards, and time, and these findings been interpreted as evidence in favor of a broader hippocampal function. Alternatively, these nonspatial responses might actually be feature-in-place signals where the spatial nature of the response has been masked by the fact that the objects or features were only presented in one location or one spatial context. In this article, we argue that when tested in multiple locations, the hippocampal response to nonspatial stimuli is almost invariably dependent on the animal's location. Looked at collectively, the data provide strong support for the cognitive map theory.

The epithelial barrier: The gateway to allergic, autoimmune, and metabolic diseases and chronic neuropsychiatric conditions.

Since the 1960 s, our health has been compromised by exposure to over 350,000 newly introduced toxic substances, contributing to the current pandemic in allergic, autoimmune and metabolic diseases. The "Epithelial Barrier Theory" postulates that these diseases are exacerbated by persistent periepithelial inflammation (epithelitis) triggered by exposure to a wide range of epithelial barrier-damaging substances as well as genetic susceptibility. The epithelial barrier serves as the body's primary physical, chemical, and immunological barrier against external stimuli. A leaky epithelial barrier facilitates the translocation of the microbiome from the surface of the afflicted tissues to interepithelial and even deeper subepithelial locations. In turn, opportunistic bacterial colonization, microbiota dysbiosis, local inflammation and impaired tissue regeneration and remodelling follow. Migration of inflammatory cells to susceptible tissues contributes to damage and inflammation, initiating and aggravating many chronic inflammatory diseases. The objective of this review is to highlight and evaluate recent studies on epithelial physiology and its role in the pathogenesis of chronic diseases in light of the epithelial barrier theory.

Social bond dynamics and the evolution of helping.

Empiricists often struggle to apply game theory models to real-life cases of animal cooperation. One reason is that many examples of cooperation occur in stable groups, where individuals form social bonds that influence exchanges of help in ways that are not well described by previous models, including the extent of reciprocity and how relationships are initiated. We present a game theory model exploring the conditions under which social bonds between group members promote cooperation. In the model, bonds build up from exchanges of help in a similar way as the strength of association increases in learning, as in the Rescorla-Wagner rule. The bonds in turn affect partner choice and influence helping amounts. The model has a mechanism of reciprocity for bonded pairs, which can evolve toward either loose or strict reciprocation. Several aspects of the model are inspired by observations of food sharing in vampire bats. We find that small social neighborhoods are required for the evolutionary stability of helping, either as small group sizes, or if bonded members of larger groups can form temporary (daily) smaller groupings. The costs of helping need to be fairly low, while the benefits can be substantial. The form of reciprocity that evolves is neither immediate nor very strict. Individuals in need request help based on bond strength, but there is also an evolved preference for initiating bonds with new group members. In contrast, if different groups come into temporary contact, the evolved tendency is to avoid forming bonds between groups.

A useful formula for periodic Jacobi matrices on trees.

We introduce a function of the density of states for periodic Jacobi matrices on trees and prove a useful formula for it in terms of entries of the resolvent of the matrix and its "half-tree" restrictions. This formula is closely related to the one-dimensional Thouless formula and associates a natural phase with points in the bands. This allows streamlined proofs of the gap labeling and Aomoto index theorems. We give a complete proof of gap labeling and sketch the proof of the Aomoto index theorem. We also prove a version of this formula for the Anderson model on trees.

The physical and evolutionary energy landscapes of devolved protein sequences corresponding to pseudogenes.

Protein evolution is guided by structural, functional, and dynamical constraints ensuring organismal viability. Pseudogenes are genomic sequences identified in many eukaryotes that lack translational activity due to sequence degradation and thus over time have undergone "devolution." Previously pseudogenized genes sometimes regain their protein-coding function, suggesting they may still encode robust folding energy landscapes despite multiple mutations. We study both the physical folding landscapes of protein sequences corresponding to human pseudogenes using the Associative Memory, Water Mediated, Structure and Energy Model, and the evolutionary energy landscapes obtained using direct coupling analysis (DCA) on their parent protein families. We found that generally mutations that have occurred in pseudogene sequences have disrupted their native global network of stabilizing residue interactions, making it harder for them to fold if they were translated. In some cases, however, energetic frustration has apparently decreased when the functional constraints were removed. We analyzed this unexpected situation for Cyclophilin A, Profilin-1, and Small Ubiquitin-like Modifier 2 Protein. Our analysis reveals that when such mutations in the pseudogene ultimately stabilize folding, at the same time, they likely alter the pseudogenes' former biological activity, as estimated by DCA. We localize most of these stabilizing mutations generally to normally frustrated regions required for binding to other partners.

Abundant resources can trigger reduced consumption: Unveiling the paradox of excessive scrounging.

In ecological contexts, it is conventionally expected that increased food availability would boost consumption, particularly when animals prioritize maximizing their food intake. This paper challenges this conventional wisdom by conducting an in-depth game-theoretic analysis of a basic foraging model, in which animals must choose between intensive food searching as producers or moderate searching while relying on group members as scroungers. Our study reveals that, under certain circumstances, increasing food availability can amplify the inclination to scrounge to such an extent that it leads to a reduction in animals' food consumption compared to scenarios with limited food availability. We further illustrate a similar phenomenon in a model capturing free-riding dynamics among workers in a company. We demonstrate that, under certain reward mechanisms, enhancing workers' production capacities can inadvertently trigger a surge in free-riding behavior, leading to both diminished group productivity and reduced individual payoffs. Our findings provide intriguing insights into the complex relationships between individual and group performances, as well as the intricate mechanisms underlying the emergence of free-riding behavior in competitive environments.

The distorting effects of producer strategies: Why engagement does not reveal consumer preferences for misinformation.

A great deal of empirical research has examined who falls for misinformation and why. Here, we introduce a formal game-theoretic model of engagement with news stories that captures the strategic interplay between (mis)information consumers and producers. A key insight from the model is that observed patterns of engagement do not necessarily reflect the preferences of consumers. This is because producers seeking to promote misinformation can use strategies that lead moderately inattentive readers to engage more with false stories than true ones-even when readers prefer more accurate over less accurate information. We then empirically test people's preferences for accuracy in the news. In three studies, we find that people strongly prefer to click and share news they perceive as more accurate-both in a general population sample, and in a sample of users recruited through Twitter who had actually shared links to misinformation sites online. Despite this preference for accurate news-and consistent with the predictions of our model-we find markedly different engagement patterns for articles from misinformation versus mainstream news sites. Using 1,000 headlines from 20 misinformation and 20 mainstream news sites, we compare Facebook engagement data with 20,000 accuracy ratings collected in a survey experiment. Engagement with a headline is negatively correlated with perceived accuracy for misinformation sites, but positively correlated with perceived accuracy for mainstream sites. Taken together, these theoretical and empirical results suggest that consumer preferences cannot be straightforwardly inferred from empirical patterns of engagement.

Do moral values change with the seasons?

Moral values guide consequential attitudes and actions. Here, we report evidence of seasonal variation in Americans' endorsement of some-but not all-moral values. Studies 1 and 2 examined a decade of data from the United States (total N = 232,975) and produced consistent evidence of a biannual seasonal cycle in values pertaining to loyalty, authority, and purity ("binding" moral values)-with strongest endorsement in spring and autumn and weakest endorsement in summer and winter-but not in values pertaining to care and fairness ("individualizing" moral values). Study 2 also provided some evidence that the summer decrease, but not the winter decrease, in binding moral value endorsement was stronger in regions with greater seasonal extremity. Analyses on an additional year of US data (study 3; n = 24,199) provided further replication and showed that this biannual seasonal cycle cannot be easily dismissed as a sampling artifact. Study 4 provided a partial explanation for the biannual seasonal cycle in Americans' endorsement of binding moral values by showing that it was predicted by an analogous seasonal cycle in Americans' experience of anxiety. Study 5 tested the generalizability of the primary findings and found similar seasonal cycles in endorsement of binding moral values in Canada and Australia (but not in the United Kingdom). Collectively, results from these five studies provide evidence that moral values change with the seasons, with intriguing implications for additional outcomes that can be affected by those values (e.g., intergroup prejudices, political attitudes, legal judgments).

Structured community transitions explain the switching capacity of microbial systems.

Microbial systems appear to exhibit a relatively high switching capacity of moving back and forth among few dominant communities (taxon memberships). While this switching behavior has been mainly attributed to random environmental factors, it remains unclear the extent to which internal community dynamics affect the switching capacity of microbial systems. Here, we integrate ecological theory and empirical data to demonstrate that structured community transitions increase the dependency of future communities on the current taxon membership, enhancing the switching capacity of microbial systems. Following a structuralist approach, we propose that each community is feasible within a unique domain in environmental parameter space. Then, structured transitions between any two communities can happen with probability proportional to the size of their feasibility domains and inversely proportional to their distance in environmental parameter space-which can be treated as a special case of the gravity model. We detect two broad classes of systems with structured transitions: one class where switching capacity is high across a wide range of community sizes and another class where switching capacity is high only inside a narrow size range. We corroborate our theory using temporal data of gut and oral microbiota (belonging to class 1) as well as vaginal and ocean microbiota (belonging to class 2). These results reveal that the topology of feasibility domains in environmental parameter space is a relevant property to understand the changing behavior of microbial systems. This knowledge can be potentially used to understand the relevant community size at which internal dynamics can be operating in microbial systems.

Emergent facilitation and glassy dynamics in supercooled liquids.

In supercooled liquids, dynamical facilitation refers to a phenomenon where microscopic motion begets further motion nearby, resulting in spatially heterogeneous dynamics. This is central to the glassy relaxation dynamics of such liquids, which show super-Arrhenius growth of relaxation timescales with decreasing temperature. Despite the importance of dynamical facilitation, there is no theoretical understanding of how facilitation emerges and impacts relaxation dynamics. Here, we present a theory that explains the microscopic origins of dynamical facilitation. We show that dynamics proceeds by localized bond-exchange events, also known as excitations, resulting in the accumulation of elastic stresses with which new excitations can interact. At low temperatures, these elastic interactions dominate and facilitate the creation of new excitations near prior excitations. Using the theory of linear elasticity and Markov processes, we simulate a model, which reproduces multiple aspects of glassy dynamics observed in experiments and molecular simulations, including the stretched exponential decay of relaxation functions, the super-Arrhenius behavior of relaxation timescales as well as their two-dimensional finite-size effects. The model also predicts the subdiffusive behavior of the mean squared displacement (MSD) on short, intermediate timescales. Furthermore, we derive the phonon contributions to diffusion and relaxation, which when combined with the excitation contributions produce the two-step relaxation processes, and the ballistic-subdiffusive-diffusive crossover MSD behaviors commonly found in supercooled liquids.

Topology of molecular deformations induces triphasic catch bonding in selectin-ligand bonds.

Among the long-standing efforts to elucidate the physical mechanisms of protein-ligand catch bonding, particular attention has been directed at the family of selectin proteins. Selectins exhibit slip, catch-slip, and slip-catch-slip bonding, with minor structural modifications causing major changes in selectins' response to force. How can a single structural mechanism allow interconversion between these various behaviors? We present a unifying theory of selectin-ligand catch bonding, using a structurally motivated free energy landscape to show how the topology of force-induced deformations of the molecular system produces the full range of observed behaviors. We find that the pathway of bond rupture deforms in non-trivial ways, such that unbinding dynamics depend sensitively on force. This implies a severe breakdown of Bell's theory-a paradigmatic theory used widely in catch bond modeling-raising questions about the suitability of Bell's theory in modeling other catch bonds. Our approach can be applied broadly to other protein-ligand systems.

The evolution of social behaviors and risk preferences in settings with uncertainty.

Humans update their social behavior in response to past experiences and changing environments. Behavioral decisions are further complicated by uncertainty in the outcome of social interactions. Faced with uncertainty, some individuals exhibit risk aversion while others seek risk. Attitudes toward risk may depend on socioeconomic status; and individuals may update their risk preferences over time, which will feedback on their social behavior. Here, we study how uncertainty and risk preferences shape the evolution of social behaviors. We extend the game-theoretic framework for behavioral evolution to incorporate uncertainty about payoffs and variation in how individuals respond to this uncertainty. We find that different attitudes toward risk can substantially alter behavior and long-term outcomes, as individuals seek to optimize their rewards from social interactions. In a standard setting without risk, for example, defection always overtakes a well-mixed population engaged in the classic Prisoner's Dilemma, whereas risk aversion can reverse the direction of evolution, promoting cooperation over defection. When individuals update their risk preferences along with their strategic behaviors, a population can oscillate between periods dominated by risk-averse cooperators and periods of risk-seeking defectors. Our analysis provides a systematic account of how risk preferences modulate, and even coevolve with, behavior in an uncertain social world.

Age-dependent extinction and the neutral theory of biodiversity.

Red Queen (RQ) theory states that adaptation does not protect species from extinction because their competitors are continually adapting alongside them. RQ was founded on the apparent independence of extinction risk and fossil taxon age, but analytical developments have since demonstrated that age-dependent extinction is widespread, usually most intense among young species. Here, we develop ecological neutral theory as a general framework for modeling fossil species survivorship under incomplete sampling. We show that it provides an excellent fit to a high-resolution dataset of species durations for Paleozoic zooplankton and more broadly can account for age-dependent extinction seen throughout the fossil record. Unlike widely used alternative models, the neutral model has parameters with biological meaning, thereby generating testable hypotheses on changes in ancient ecosystems. The success of this approach suggests reinterpretations of mass extinctions and of scaling in eco-evolutionary systems. Intense extinction among young species does not necessarily refute RQ or require a special explanation but can instead be parsimoniously explained by neutral dynamics operating across species regardless of age.

Indirect reciprocity undermines indirect reciprocity destabilizing large-scale cooperation.

Previous models suggest that indirect reciprocity (reputation) can stabilize large-scale human cooperation [K. Panchanathan, R. Boyd, Nature 432, 499-502 (2004)]. The logic behind these models and experiments [J. Gross et al., Sci. Adv. 9, eadd8289 (2023) and O. P. Hauser, A. Hendriks, D. G. Rand, M. A. Nowak, Sci. Rep. 6, 36079 (2016)] is that a strategy in which individuals conditionally aid others based on their reputation for engaging in costly cooperative behavior serves as a punishment that incentivizes large-scale cooperation without the second-order free-rider problem. However, these models and experiments fail to account for individuals belonging to multiple groups with reputations that can be in conflict. Here, we extend these models such that individuals belong to a smaller, "local" group embedded within a larger, "global" group. This introduces competing strategies for conditionally aiding others based on their cooperative behavior in the local or global group. Our analyses reveal that the reputation for cooperation in the smaller local group can undermine cooperation in the larger global group, even when the theoretical maximum payoffs are higher in the larger global group. This model reveals that indirect reciprocity alone is insufficient for stabilizing large-scale human cooperation because cooperation at one scale can be considered defection at another. These results deepen the puzzle of large-scale human cooperation.