Adaptive evolution of the enigmatic Takakia now facing climate change in Tibet.

The most extreme environments are the most vulnerable to transformation under a rapidly changing climate. These ecosystems harbor some of the most specialized species, which will likely suffer the highest extinction rates. We document the steepest temperature increase (2010-2021) on record at altitudes of above 4,000 m, triggering a decline of the relictual and highly adapted moss Takakia lepidozioides. Its de-novo-sequenced genome with 27,467 protein-coding genes includes distinct adaptations to abiotic stresses and comprises the largest number of fast-evolving genes under positive selection. The uplift of the study site in the last 65 million years has resulted in life-threatening UV-B radiation and drastically reduced temperatures, and we detected several of the molecular adaptations of Takakia to these environmental changes. Surprisingly, specific morphological features likely occurred earlier than 165 mya in much warmer environments. Following nearly 400 million years of evolution and resilience, this species is now facing extinction.

Opportunities and challenges in assessing climate change vulnerability through genomics.

By investigating how past selection has affected allele frequencies across space, genomic tools are providing new insights into adaptive evolutionary processes. Now researchers are considering how this genomic information can be used to predict the future vulnerability of species under climate change. Genomic vulnerability assessments show promise, but challenges remain.

Coral Reef Population Genomics in an Age of Global Change.

Coral reefs are both exceptionally biodiverse and threatened by climate change and other human activities. Here, we review population genomic processes in coral reef taxa and their importance for understanding responses to global change. Many taxa on coral reefs are characterized by weak genetic drift, extensive gene flow, and strong selection from complex biotic and abiotic environments, which together present a fascinating test of microevolutionary theory. Selection, gene flow, and hybridization have played and will continue to play an important role in the adaptation or extinction of coral reef taxa in the face of rapid environmental change, but research remains exceptionally limited compared to the urgent needs. Critical areas for future investigation include understanding evolutionary potential and the mechanisms of local adaptation, developing historical baselines, and building greater research capacity in the countries where most reef diversity is concentrated.

Climate change impacts on respiratory health: exposure, vulnerability, and risk.

Anthropogenic climate change adversely impacts human health. In this perspective, we examine the impact of climate change on respiratory health risk. We describe five respiratory health threats-heat, wildfires, pollen, extreme weather events, and viruses-and discuss their impact on health outcomes in a warming climate. The risk of experiencing an adverse health outcome occurs at the intersection of exposure and vulnerability, consisting of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Exposed individuals and communities most at risk are those with high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity, as influenced by the social determinants of health. We call for the implementation of a transdisciplinary strategy for accelerating respiratory health research, practice, and policy in the context of climate change.

Genomics for monitoring and understanding species responses to global climate change.

All life forms across the globe are experiencing drastic changes in environmental conditions as a result of global climate change. These environmental changes are happening rapidly, incur substantial socioeconomic costs, pose threats to biodiversity and diminish a species' potential to adapt to future environments. Understanding and monitoring how organisms respond to human-driven climate change is therefore a major priority for the conservation of biodiversity in a rapidly changing environment. Recent developments in genomic, transcriptomic and epigenomic technologies are enabling unprecedented insights into the evolutionary processes and molecular bases of adaptation. This Review summarizes methods that apply and integrate omics tools to experimentally investigate, monitor and predict how species and communities in the wild cope with global climate change, which is by genetically adapting to new environmental conditions, through range shifts or through phenotypic plasticity. We identify advantages and limitations of each method and discuss future research avenues that would improve our understanding of species' evolutionary responses to global climate change, highlighting the need for holistic, multi-omics approaches to ecosystem monitoring during global climate change.

Projected decline in European bumblebee populations in the twenty-first century.

Habitat degradation and climate change are globally acting as pivotal drivers of wildlife collapse, with mounting evidence that this erosion of biodiversity will accelerate in the following decades1-3. Here, we quantify the past, present and future ecological suitability of Europe for bumblebees, a threatened group of pollinators ranked among the highest contributors to crop production value in the northern hemisphere4-8. We demonstrate coherent declines of bumblebee populations since 1900 over most of Europe and identify future large-scale range contractions and species extirpations under all future climate and land use change scenarios. Around 38-76% of studied European bumblebee species currently classified as 'Least Concern' are projected to undergo losses of at least 30% of ecologically suitable territory by 2061-2080 compared to 2000-2014. All scenarios highlight that parts of Scandinavia will become potential refugia for European bumblebees; it is however uncertain whether these areas will remain clear of additional anthropogenic stressors not accounted for in present models. Our results underline the critical role of global change mitigation policies as effective levers to protect bumblebees from manmade transformation of the biosphere.

Weather explains the decline and rise of insect biomass over 34 years.

Insects have a pivotal role in ecosystem function, thus the decline of more than 75% in insect biomass in protected areas over recent decades in Central Europe1 and elsewhere2,3 has alarmed the public, pushed decision-makers4 and stimulated research on insect population trends. However, the drivers of this decline are still not well understood. Here, we reanalysed 27 years of insect biomass data from Hallmann et al.1, using sample-specific information on weather conditions during sampling and weather anomalies during the insect life cycle. This model explained variation in temporal decline in insect biomass, including an observed increase in biomass in recent years, solely on the basis of these weather variables. Our finding that terrestrial insect biomass is largely driven by complex weather conditions challenges previous assumptions that climate change is more critical in the tropics5,6 or that negative consequences in the temperate zone might only occur in the future7. Despite the recent observed increase in biomass, new combinations of unfavourable multi-annual weather conditions might be expected to further threaten insect populations under continuing climate change. Our findings also highlight the need for more climate change research on physiological mechanisms affected by annual weather conditions and anomalies.

Biogeographic response of marine plankton to Cenozoic environmental changes.

In palaeontological studies, groups with consistent ecological and morphological traits across a clade's history (functional groups)1 afford different perspectives on biodiversity dynamics than do species and genera2,3, which are evolutionarily ephemeral. Here we analyse Triton, a global dataset of Cenozoic macroperforate planktonic foraminiferal occurrences4, to contextualize changes in latitudinal equitability gradients1, functional diversity, palaeolatitudinal specialization and community equitability. We identify: global morphological communities becoming less specialized preceding the richness increase after the Cretaceous-Palaeogene extinction; ecological specialization during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum, suggesting inhibitive equatorial temperatures during the peak of the Cenozoic hothouse; increased specialization due to circulation changes across the Eocene-Oligocene transition, preceding the loss of morphological diversity; changes in morphological specialization and richness about 19 million years ago, coeval with pelagic shark extinctions5; delayed onset of changing functional group richness and specialization between hemispheres during the mid-Miocene plankton diversification. The detailed nature of the Triton dataset permits a unique spatiotemporal view of Cenozoic pelagic macroevolution, in which global biogeographic responses of functional communities and richness are decoupled during Cenozoic climate events. The global response of functional groups to similar abiotic selection pressures may depend on the background climatic state (greenhouse or icehouse) to which a group is adapted.

Cenozoic history of the tropical marine biodiversity hotspot.

The region with the highest marine biodiversity on our planet is known as the Coral Triangle or Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA)1,2. Its enormous biodiversity has long attracted the interest of biologists; however, the detailed evolutionary history of the IAA biodiversity hotspot remains poorly understood3. Here we present a high-resolution reconstruction of the Cenozoic diversity history of the IAA by inferring speciation-extinction dynamics using a comprehensive fossil dataset. We found that the IAA has exhibited a unidirectional diversification trend since about 25 million years ago, following a roughly logistic increase until a diversity plateau beginning about 2.6 million years ago. The growth of diversity was primarily controlled by diversity dependency and habitat size, and also facilitated by the alleviation of thermal stress after 13.9 million years ago. Distinct net diversification peaks were recorded at about 25, 20, 16, 12 and 5 million years ago, which were probably related to major tectonic events in addition to climate transitions. Key biogeographic processes had far-reaching effects on the IAA diversity as shown by the long-term waning of the Tethyan descendants versus the waxing of cosmopolitan and IAA taxa. Finally, it seems that the absence of major extinctions and the Cenozoic cooling have been essential in making the IAA the richest marine biodiversity hotspot on Earth.

Predator mass mortality events restructure food webs through trophic decoupling.

Predators have a key role in structuring ecosystems1-4. However, predator loss is accelerating globally4-6, and predator mass-mortality events7 (MMEs)-rapid large-scale die-offs-are now emblematic of the Anthropocene epoch6. Owing to their rare and unpredictable nature7, we lack an understanding of how MMEs immediately impact ecosystems. Past predator-removal studies2,3 may be insufficient to understand the ecological consequences of MMEs because, in nature, dead predators decompose in situ and generate a resource pulse8, which could alter ensuing ecosystem dynamics by temporarily enhancing productivity. Here we experimentally induce MMEs in tritrophic, freshwater lake food webs and report ecological dynamics that are distinct from predator losses2,3 or resource pulses9 alone, but that can be predicted from theory8. MMEs led to the proliferation of diverse consumer and producer communities resulting from weakened top-down predator control1-3 and stronger bottom-up effects through predator decomposition8. In contrast to predator removals alone, enhanced primary production after MMEs dampened the consumer community response. As a consequence, MMEs generated biomass dynamics that were most similar to those of undisturbed systems, indicating that they may be cryptic disturbances in nature. These biomass dynamics led to trophic decoupling, whereby the indirect beneficial effects of predators on primary producers are lost and later materialize as direct bottom-up effects that stimulate primary production amid intensified herbivory. These results reveal ecological signatures of MMEs and demonstrate the feasibility of forecasting novel ecological dynamics arising with intensifying global change.

Unforeseen plant phenotypic diversity in a dry and grazed world.

Earth harbours an extraordinary plant phenotypic diversity1 that is at risk from ongoing global changes2,3. However, it remains unknown how increasing aridity and livestock grazing pressure-two major drivers of global change4-6-shape the trait covariation that underlies plant phenotypic diversity1,7. Here we assessed how covariation among 20 chemical and morphological traits responds to aridity and grazing pressure within global drylands. Our analysis involved 133,769 trait measurements spanning 1,347 observations of 301 perennial plant species surveyed across 326 plots from 6 continents. Crossing an aridity threshold of approximately 0.7 (close to the transition between semi-arid and arid zones) led to an unexpected 88% increase in trait diversity. This threshold appeared in the presence of grazers, and moved toward lower aridity levels with increasing grazing pressure. Moreover, 57% of observed trait diversity occurred only in the most arid and grazed drylands, highlighting the phenotypic uniqueness of these extreme environments. Our work indicates that drylands act as a global reservoir of plant phenotypic diversity and challenge the pervasive view that harsh environmental conditions reduce plant trait diversity8-10. They also highlight that many alternative strategies may enable plants to cope with increases in environmental stress induced by climate change and land-use intensification.

Unequal climate impacts on global values of natural capital.

Ecosystems generate a wide range of benefits for humans, including some market goods as well as other benefits that are not directly reflected in market activity1. Climate change will alter the distribution of ecosystems around the world and change the flow of these benefits2,3. However, the specific implications of ecosystem changes for human welfare remain unclear, as they depend on the nature of these changes, the value of the affected benefits and the extent to which communities rely on natural systems for their well-being4. Here we estimate country-level changes in economic production and the value of non-market ecosystem benefits resulting from climate-change-induced shifts in terrestrial vegetation cover, as projected by dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) driven by general circulation climate models. Our results show that the annual population-weighted mean global flow of non-market ecosystem benefits valued in the wealth accounts of the World Bank will be reduced by 9.2% in 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-6.0 with respect to the baseline no climate change scenario and that the global population-weighted average change in gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100 is -1.3% of the baseline GDP. Because lower-income countries are more reliant on natural capital, these GDP effects are regressive. Approximately 90% of these damages are borne by the poorest 50% of countries and regions, whereas the wealthiest 10% experience only 2% of these losses.

A meta-analysis on global change drivers and the risk of infectious disease.

Anthropogenic change is contributing to the rise in emerging infectious diseases, which are significantly correlated with socioeconomic, environmental and ecological factors1. Studies have shown that infectious disease risk is modified by changes to biodiversity2-6, climate change7-11, chemical pollution12-14, landscape transformations15-20 and species introductions21. However, it remains unclear which global change drivers most increase disease and under what contexts. Here we amassed a dataset from the literature that contains 2,938 observations of infectious disease responses to global change drivers across 1,497 host-parasite combinations, including plant, animal and human hosts. We found that biodiversity loss, chemical pollution, climate change and introduced species are associated with increases in disease-related end points or harm, whereas urbanization is associated with decreases in disease end points. Natural biodiversity gradients, deforestation and forest fragmentation are comparatively unimportant or idiosyncratic as drivers of disease. Overall, these results are consistent across human and non-human diseases. Nevertheless, context-dependent effects of the global change drivers on disease were found to be common. The findings uncovered by this meta-analysis should help target disease management and surveillance efforts towards global change drivers that increase disease. Specifically, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, managing ecosystem health, and preventing biological invasions and biodiversity loss could help to reduce the burden of plant, animal and human diseases, especially when coupled with improvements to social and economic determinants of health.

Microbial competition for phosphorus limits the CO2 response of a mature forest.

The capacity for terrestrial ecosystems to sequester additional carbon (C) with rising CO2 concentrations depends on soil nutrient availability1,2. Previous evidence suggested that mature forests growing on phosphorus (P)-deprived soils had limited capacity to sequester extra biomass under elevated CO2 (refs. 3-6), but uncertainty about ecosystem P cycling and its CO2 response represents a crucial bottleneck for mechanistic prediction of the land C sink under climate change7. Here, by compiling the first comprehensive P budget for a P-limited mature forest exposed to elevated CO2, we show a high likelihood that P captured by soil microorganisms constrains ecosystem P recycling and availability for plant uptake. Trees used P efficiently, but microbial pre-emption of mineralized soil P seemed to limit the capacity of trees for increased P uptake and assimilation under elevated CO2 and, therefore, their capacity to sequester extra C. Plant strategies to stimulate microbial P cycling and plant P uptake, such as increasing rhizosphere C release to soil, will probably be necessary for P-limited forests to increase C capture into new biomass. Our results identify the key mechanisms by which P availability limits CO2 fertilization of tree growth and will guide the development of Earth system models to predict future long-term C storage.

Heat and desiccation tolerances predict bee abundance under climate change.

Climate change could pose an urgent threat to pollinators, with critical ecological and economic consequences. However, for most insect pollinator species, we lack the long-term data and mechanistic evidence that are necessary to identify climate-driven declines and predict future trends. Here we document 16 years of abundance patterns for a hyper-diverse bee assemblage1 in a warming and drying region2, link bee declines with experimentally determined heat and desiccation tolerances, and use climate sensitivity models to project bee communities into the future. Aridity strongly predicted bee abundance for 71% of 665 bee populations (species × ecosystem combinations). Bee taxa that best tolerated heat and desiccation increased the most over time. Models forecasted declines for 46% of species and predicted more homogeneous communities dominated by drought-tolerant taxa, even while total bee abundance may remain unchanged. Such community reordering could reduce pollination services, because diverse bee assemblages typically maximize pollination for plant communities3. Larger-bodied bees also dominated under intermediate to high aridity, identifying body size as a valuable trait for understanding how climate-driven shifts in bee communities influence pollination4. We provide evidence that climate change directly threatens bee diversity, indicating that bee conservation efforts should account for the stress of aridity on bee physiology.

The enduring world forest carbon sink.

The uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) by terrestrial ecosystems is critical for moderating climate change1. To provide a ground-based long-term assessment of the contribution of forests to terrestrial CO2 uptake, we synthesized in situ forest data from boreal, temperate and tropical biomes spanning three decades. We found that the carbon sink in global forests was steady, at 3.6 ± 0.4 Pg C yr-1 in the 1990s and 2000s, and 3.5 ± 0.4 Pg C yr-1 in the 2010s. Despite this global stability, our analysis revealed some major biome-level changes. Carbon sinks have increased in temperate (+30 ± 5%) and tropical regrowth (+29 ± 8%) forests owing to increases in forest area, but they decreased in boreal (-36 ± 6%) and tropical intact (-31 ± 7%) forests, as a result of intensified disturbances and losses in intact forest area, respectively. Mass-balance studies indicate that the global land carbon sink has increased2, implying an increase in the non-forest-land carbon sink. The global forest sink is equivalent to almost half of fossil-fuel emissions (7.8 ± 0.4 Pg C yr-1 in 1990-2019). However, two-thirds of the benefit from the sink has been negated by tropical deforestation (2.2 ± 0.5 Pg C yr-1 in 1990-2019). Although the global forest sink has endured undiminished for three decades, despite regional variations, it could be weakened by ageing forests, continuing deforestation and further intensification of disturbance regimes1. To protect the carbon sink, land management policies are needed to limit deforestation, promote forest restoration and improve timber-harvesting practices1,3.

Fertilizer management for global ammonia emission reduction.

Crop production is a large source of atmospheric ammonia (NH3), which poses risks to air quality, human health and ecosystems1-5. However, estimating global NH3 emissions from croplands is subject to uncertainties because of data limitations, thereby limiting the accurate identification of mitigation options and efficacy4,5. Here we develop a machine learning model for generating crop-specific and spatially explicit NH3 emission factors globally (5-arcmin resolution) based on a compiled dataset of field observations. We show that global NH3 emissions from rice, wheat and maize fields in 2018 were 4.3 ± 1.0 Tg N yr-1, lower than previous estimates that did not fully consider fertilizer management practices6-9. Furthermore, spatially optimizing fertilizer management, as guided by the machine learning model, has the potential to reduce the NH3 emissions by about 38% (1.6 ± 0.4 Tg N yr-1) without altering total fertilizer nitrogen inputs. Specifically, we estimate potential NH3 emissions reductions of 47% (44-56%) for rice, 27% (24-28%) for maize and 26% (20-28%) for wheat cultivation, respectively. Under future climate change scenarios, we estimate that NH3 emissions could increase by 4.0 ± 2.7% under SSP1-2.6 and 5.5 ± 5.7% under SSP5-8.5 by 2030-2060. However, targeted fertilizer management has the potential to mitigate these increases.

Severe multi-year drought coincident with Hittite collapse around 1198-1196 BC.

The potential of climate change to substantially alter human history is a pressing concern, but the specific effects of different types of climate change remain unknown. This question can be addressed using palaeoclimatic and archaeological data. For instance, a 300-year, low-frequency shift to drier, cooler climate conditions around 1200 BC is frequently associated with the collapse of several ancient civilizations in the Eastern Mediterranean and Near East1-4. However, the precise details of synchronized climate and human-history-scale associations are lacking. The archaeological-historical record contains multiple instances of human societies successfully adapting to low-frequency climate change5-7. It is likely that consecutive multi-year occurrences of rare, unexpected extreme climatic events may push a population beyond adaptation and centuries-old resilience practices5,7-10. Here we examine the collapse of the Hittite Empire around 1200 BC. The Hittites were one of the great powers in the ancient world across five centuries11-14, with an empire centred in a semi-arid region in Anatolia with political and socioeconomic interconnections throughout the ancient Near East and Eastern Mediterranean, which for a long time proved resilient despite facing regular and intersecting sociopolitical, economic and environmental challenges. Examination of ring width and stable isotope records obtained from contemporary juniper trees in central Anatolia provides a high-resolution dryness record. This analysis identifies an unusually severe continuous dry period from around 1198 to 1196 (±3) BC, potentially indicating a tipping point, and signals the type of episode that can overwhelm contemporary risk-buffering practices.