Local exposure to inequality raises support of people of low wealth for taxing the wealthy.

Psychological research shows that social comparison of individuals with peers or others shapes attitude formation1,2. Opportunities for such comparisons have increased with global inequality3,4; everyday experiences can make economic disparities more salient through signals of social class5,6. Here we show that, among individuals with a lower socioeconomic status, such local exposure to inequality drives support for the redistribution of wealth. We designed a placebo-controlled field experiment conducted in South African neighbourhoods in which individuals with a low socioeconomic status encountered real-world reminders of inequality through the randomized presence of a high-status car. Pedestrians were asked to sign a petition to increase taxes on wealthy individuals to help with the redistribution of wealth. We found an increase of eleven percentage points in the probability of signing the petition in the presence of inequality, when taking into account the experimental placebo effect. The placebo effect suppresses the probability that an individual signs the petition in general, which is consistent with evidence that upward social comparison reduces political efficacy4. Measures of economic inequality were constructed at the neighbourhood level and connected to a survey of individuals with a low socioeconomic status. We found that local exposure to inequality was positively associated with support for a tax on wealthy individuals to address economic disparities. Inequality seems to affect preferences for the redistribution of wealth through local exposure. However, our results indicate that inequality may also suppress participation; the political implications of our findings at regional or country-wide scales therefore remain uncertain.

Organized crime in the fisheries sector threatens a sustainable ocean economy.

The threat of criminal activity in the fisheries sector has concerned the international community for a number of years. In more recent times, the presence of organized crime in fisheries has come to the fore. In 2008, the United Nations General Assembly asked all states to contribute to increasing our understanding the connection between illegal fishing and transnational organized crime at sea. Policy-makers, researchers and members of civil society are increasing their knowledge of the dynamics and destructiveness of the blue shadow economy and the role of organized crime within this economy. Anecdotal, scientific and example-based evidence of the various manifestations of organized crime in fisheries, its widespread adverse impacts on economies, societies and the environment globally and its potential security consequences is now publicly available. Here we present the current state of knowledge on organized crime in the fisheries sector. We show how the many facets of organized crime in this sector, including fraud, drug trafficking and forced labour, hinder progress towards the development of a sustainable ocean economy. With reference to worldwide promising practices, we highlight practical opportunities for action to address the problem. We emphasize the need for a shared understanding of the challenge and for the implementation of intelligence-led, skills-based cooperative law enforcement action at a global level and a community-based approach for targeting organized crime in the supply chain of organized criminal networks at a local level, facilitated by legislative frameworks and increased transparency.

Political leadership has limited impact on fossil fuel taxes and subsidies.

For countries to rapidly decarbonize, they need strong leadership, according to both academic studies and popular accounts. But leadership is difficult to measure, and its importance is unclear. We use original data to investigate the role of presidents, prime ministers, and monarchs in 155 countries from 1990 to 2015 in changing their countries' gasoline taxes and subsidies. Our findings suggest that the impact of leaders on fossil fuel taxes and subsidies is surprisingly limited and often ephemeral. This holds true regardless of the leader's age, gender, education, or political ideology. Rulers who govern during an economic crisis perform no better or worse than other rulers. Even presidents and prime ministers who were recognized by the United Nations for environmental leadership had no more success than other leaders in reducing subsidies or raising fuel taxes. Where leaders appear to play an important role-primarily in countries with large subsidies-their reforms often failed, with subsidies returning to prereform levels within the first 12 mo 62% of the time, and within 5 y 87% of the time. Our findings suggest that leaders of all types find it exceptionally hard to raise the cost of fossil fuels for consumers. To promote deep decarbonization, leaders are likely to have more success with other types of policies, such as reducing the costs and increasing the availability of renewable energy.

The impact of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages on diabetes: a critical review.

The global burden of type 2 diabetes is increasing at an alarming rate, fuelled by the obesity epidemic, with significant associated health and economic consequences and apparent inequalities. Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a major source of added sugars in diets worldwide and have been linked to an increased risk of type 2 diabetes through a variety of mechanisms, including excess weight. Taxing SSBs has become a promising public health strategy to reduce consumption and mitigate the burden of type 2 diabetes. A substantial body of evidence suggests that SSB taxes lead to increased prices and subsequent reduced consumption, with a potentially greater effect among lower socioeconomic groups. This highlights the potential for tax policies to have an impact on type 2 diabetes and address health inequalities. Evidence from several ongoing SSB tax schemes, including sales and excise taxes, indicates positive effects on improving consumption patterns, and modelling studies point to health gains by averting type 2 diabetes and other cardiometabolic diseases. In contrast, evidence from empirical evaluation of the impact of SSB tax is scarce. Continued monitoring and the strengthening of evaluation research to develop context-tailored policies are required. In addition, there is a need to implement complementary efforts to amplify the impact of SSB taxation and effectively address the global burden of type 2 diabetes.

Estimated reduction in obesity prevalence and costs of a 20% and 30% ad valorem excise tax to sugar-sweetened beverages in Brazil: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is associated with obesity, metabolic diseases, and incremental healthcare costs. Given their health consequences, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended that countries implement taxes on SSB. Over the last 10 years, obesity prevalence has almost doubled in Brazil, yet, in 2016, the Brazilian government cut the existing federal SSB taxes to their current 4%. Since 2022, a bill to impose a 20% tax on SSB has been under discussion in the Brazilian Senate. To simulate the potential impact of increasing taxes on SSB in Brazil, we aimed to estimate the price-elasticity of SSB and the potential impact of a new 20% or 30% excise SSB tax on consumption, obesity prevalence, and cost savings. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using household purchases data from the Brazilian Household Budget Survey (POF) from 2017/2018, we estimated constant elasticity regressions. We used a log-log specification by income level for all beverage categories: (1) sugar-sweetened beverages; (2) alcoholic beverages; (3) unsweetened beverages; and (4) low-calorie or artificially sweetened beverages. We estimated the adult nationwide baseline intake for each beverage category using 24-h dietary recall data collected in 2017/2018. Taking group one as the taxed beverages, we applied the price and cross-price elasticities to the baseline intake data, we obtained changes in caloric intake. The caloric reduction was introduced into an individual dynamic model to estimate changes in weight and obesity prevalence. No benefits on cost savings were modeled during the first 3 years of intervention to account for the time lag in obesity cases to reduce costs. We multiplied the reduction in obesity cases during 7 years by the obesity costs per capita to predict the costs savings attributable to the sweetened beverage tax. SSB price elasticities were higher among the lowest tertile of income (-1.24) than in the highest income tertile (-1.13), and cross-price elasticities suggest SSB were weakly substituted by milk, water, and 100% fruit juices. We estimated a caloric change of -17.3 kcal/day/person under a 20% excise tax and -25.9 kcal/day/person under a 30% tax. Ten years after implementation, a 20% tax is expected to reduce obesity prevalence by 6.7%; 9.1% for a 30% tax. These reductions translate into a -2.8 million and -3.8 million obesity cases for a 20% and 30% tax, respectively, and a reduction of $US 13.3 billion and $US 17.9 billion in obesity costs over 10 years for a 20% and 30% tax, respectively. Study limitations include using a quantile distribution method to adjust self-reported baseline weight and height, which could be insufficient to correct for reporting bias; also, weight, height, and physical activity were assumed to be steady over time. CONCLUSIONS: Adding a 20% to 30% excise tax on top of Brazil's current federal tax could help to reduce the consumption of ultra-processed beverages, empty calories, and body weight while avoiding large health-related costs. Given the recent cuts to SSB taxes in Brazil, a program to revise and implement excise taxes could prove beneficial for the Brazilian population.

Preventing liver disease with policy measures to tackle alcohol consumption and obesity: The HEPAHEALTH II study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Chronic liver disease (CLD) causes 1.8% of all deaths in Europe, many of them from liver cancer. We estimated the impact of several policy interventions in France, the Netherlands, and Romania. METHODS: We used a validated microsimulation model to assess seven different policy scenarios in 2022-2030: a minimum unit price (MUP) of alcohol of €0.70 or €1, a volumetric alcohol tax, a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax, food marketing restrictions, plus two different combinations of these policies compared against current policies (the 'inaction' scenario). RESULTS: All policies reduced the burden of CLD and liver cancer. The largest impact was observed for a MUP of €1, which by 2030 would reduce the cumulative incidence of CLD by between 7.1% to 7.3% in France, the Netherlands, and Romania compared with inaction. For liver cancer, the corresponding reductions in cumulative incidence were between 4.8% to 5.8%. Implementing a package containing a MUP of €0.70, a volumetric alcohol tax, and an SSB tax would reduce the cumulative incidence of CLD by between 4.29% to 4.71% and of liver cancer by between 3.47% to 3.95% in France, the Netherlands, and Romania. The total predicted reduction in healthcare costs by 2030 was greatest with the €1 MUP scenario, with a reduction for liver cancer costs of €8.18M and €612.49M in the Netherlands and France, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Policy measures tackling primary risk factors for CLD and liver cancer, such as the implementation of a MUP of €1 and/or a MUP of €0.70 plus SSB tax could markedly reduce the number of Europeans with CLD or liver cancer. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Policymakers must be aware that alcohol and obesity are the two leading risk factors for chronic liver disease and liver cancer in Europe and both are expected to increase in the future if no policy interventions are made. This study assessed the potential of different public health policy measures to mitigate the impact of alcohol consumption and obesity on the general population in three European countries: France, the Netherlands, and Romania. The findings support introducing a €1 minimum unit price for alcohol to reduce the burden of chronic liver disease. In addition, the study shows the importance of targeting multiple drivers of alcohol consumption and obesogenic products simultaneously via a harmonized fiscal policy framework, to complement efforts being made within health systems. These findings should encourage policymakers to introduce such policy measures across Europe to reduce the burden of liver disease. The modeling methods used in this study can assist in structuring similar modeling in other regions to expand on this study's findings.

Identification of tax options for high fat, sugar, salt foods for the HEALTHEI Project: a mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: The health economic analysis incorporating effects on labour outcomes, households, environment, and inequalities (HEALTHEI) explores which food taxes would have greatest benefits to health, labour, and work outcomes; household expenditure; environmental sustainability; and inequalities within the UK food system. Work package 1 includes a rapid review and workshops, aiming to explore the effects of price increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages to facilitate the specification of food taxes and research design. METHODS: In this mixed-methods study, we first did a rapid review to examine relevant published evidence. A preplanned framework ensured a systematic approach, in which we searched PubMed, HMIC, Scopus, Google, Mintel/Mintel Food and Drink, and Business Source Ultimate for papers published in English from Jan 1, 2010, to Nov 2, 2022. This review was followed by three online workshops (in March, 2023), which used interactive padlets to explore food systems, food taxation policy, tax rationales, and a rapid review infographic. 14 stakeholders from non-governmental organisations (n=10), academia (n=2), the Civil Service (n=1), and a local authority (n=1) took part (gender or ethnicity were not recorded). A stakeholder recruitment grid was developed to ensure representation across public sectors and disciplines of public health, nutrition, environment, and economics. FINDINGS: The rapid review identified six tax options with a broadly positive impact on consumption and health (high fat, high sugar, high salt, "junk food", sugar-sweetened-beverages, and meats plus sugar-sweetened beverages). It generated five core rationales for a food tax: change consumption, reduce or prevent harm, change product affordability, raise revenue, and industry impact. Using the workshop feedback, health inequalities, economics, ease of implementation and animal welfare were additional key areas for a so-called real-world application of tax. Stakeholders questioned the taxes in the current economic and political climate. INTERPRETATION: The work highlights the need to develop an impactful food tax option that encompasses the five core rationales identified in the findings. The workshops identified key areas to explore further to understand the feasibility, impact, and logistics of implementing future food taxes. Being unable to deliver workshops in person due to difficulties of participants travelling to London was a limitation. However, switching online allowed for varied and well attended workshops. FUNDING: National Institute of Health Research (Ref: NIHR133927).

Understanding the use of media analysis in public health research through food tax debates (HEALTHEI Project): a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Poor diet is a major public health concern. In 2021, 63·8% of adults and 22·2% of reception-age children were either overweight or obese in England. Fiscal interventions have become a popular policy measure to reduce obesity and encourage healthy eating. Such measures are highly controversial, leading to media debate promoting pro-tax and anti-tax arguments. To better understand food tax debates and the use of media analysis in public health research, we conducted a scoping review of media analyses using food taxes as a case study. METHODS: In this scoping review, we searched SCOPUS, PubMed, and EBSCOhost databases on Feb 14-22, 2023, using keyword variations for "food", "tax", and "media analysis". Results were restricted to English-only, peer-reviewed journal articles. The initial results were manually screened through an iterative process to exclude articles that did not analyse a food tax, were non-English language, were not peer-reviewed, or did not use media analysis as the primary method. Modelled on Arksey and O'Malley's (2005) five-stage review protocol, two researchers used a coding framework to independently code all articles and checked result quality through regular discussion. Extracted data included article title, author, year, country, tax type, media sources used, identified media frames, and research aims, methods, results, and conclusions. Results are reported according to PRISMA guidelines and data files submitted to FigShare Repository (non-accessible). FINDINGS: Of 1087 articles reviewed, 19 were eligible to be included in the study. Articles were published between 2013 and 2023, with 2021 having the highest concentration of studies carried out mainly in UK and USA. Despite search terms encompassing a range of food products, the retrieved media analyses focused on three types of food product taxes: sugar-sweetened beverages, meat, and groceries. Most articles explored arguments for and against policy implementation, with some investigating stakeholder representation. Results demonstrate that stakeholders' arguments, both positive and negative, are consistent across countries and food products. INTERPRETATION: The consistency of how both pro-tax and anti-tax arguments are presented in the media demonstrates the importance of coordination between stakeholder groups to influence policy adoption. To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate media analysis across a diverse range of food products. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR).

Development of a framework for action to advocate for a coherent prevention policy for tobacco, alcohol, and foods high in fats, salt, or sugar: a mixed-methods approach.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco, alcohol, and foods high in fats, salt, or sugar (HFSS) are health harming products. Limited progress in prevention is partly due to health-harming industry lobbying. Action on Smoking and Health (ASH), Alcohol Health Alliance, and Obesity Health Alliance collaborated with the aim of developing a framework for action to address the saturation of these products in our environment. METHODS: We used a mixed-methods approach. Focus groups with academic experts, local government, and national government, recruited through snowball sampling were held in Nov 3, 2022 (14 participants); April 25, 2023 (20 participants); and June 15, 2023 (20 participants). Iteratively, data analysis was presented, and key themes tested. Commissioned economic analysis of national survey datasets quantified consumer spend on tobacco, alcohol, and food products above government recommendations (all tobacco use, >14 units of alcohol, and national dietary guidelines) and industry percentage of revenues (net of tax). Public opinion data from the ASH YouGov Smokefree Survey 2022 on a nationally representative sample of 13 088 adults were descriptively analysed for specific policy options. FINDINGS: The framework for action to achieve a coherent prevention approach across products included three key enablers (secure funding for prevention, a comprehensive strategy, and protecting health policy from industry interference). Five key actions were: regulate advertising to limit harm, regulate product use and environments they can be used in, promote healthy messaging, raise the price of health-harming products, and fund treatment services. Economic analysis identified 100% of tobacco usage, 43·4% of alcohol purchased, and 28·8% of food purchased by households was above government recommendations. Post-tax industry revenue was £7·3 billion for tobacco, £11·2 billion for alcohol, and £34·2 billion for HFSS foods. Strong public support for levies (5%, n=8495) and protecting health policy from industry influence (69%, n=9006) was apparent. INTERPRETATION: A coherent approach to prevention across health-harming products is effective and has public support. Strengths include the iterative process to develop the framework for action among focus groups and use of nationally representative datasets. Limitations include the snowball sampling. The findings were built into a strategy intended to inform future collaborative work in the area. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK (grant PICADV-Feb22\100004).

Governments policy measures to address obesity among adults: a scoping review of the global evidence.

BACKGROUND: Obesity epidemic is one of the greatest challenges in public health in modern societies. This study aimed to address the main gap by reviewing the effectiveness of nutritional policy measures implemented globally by governments to reduce obesity prevalence among adults. METHODS: We developed a scoping review by searching Ovid Medline, PubMed, and Embase from May 5, to July 12, 2022 for papers published in English between Jan 1, 2002 and May 1, 2022. Eligible papers included adults older than 18 years and focused on obesity prevention strategies. No restrictions on study design or geographic location were applied. The search terms included "obesity", "health policy", "government regulation", and "obesogenic environment". FINDINGS: 17 articles were eligible for this scoping review across seven countries (USA, UK, France, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and India). The identified studies were observational, cross-sectional, and systematic reviews, with the majority published in the USA and the UK within the past 5 years. Policies were categorised into three groups: food and beverages taxes (n=6), food labelling (n=6) and national campaigns (n=5). Most policies showed a small magnitude change in obesity reduction metrics such as body-mass index (BMI) and weight outcome (n=10). Two studies found that food labelling did not significantly change weight status. Two other studies targeting national campaigns showed a reduction in risk for obesity and overweight. However, the sugar tax demonstrated promising results compared with all other policies when the tax levy tier was increased. Three studies reported that a higher tax increase was correlated with a greater decline in obesity prevalence when increasing the tax up to 20%. INTERPRETATION: Our findings inform recommendations for policy makers of how other countries have implemented and evaluated their food policies. It can also encourage food industries to reformulate their products and promote population health. The limited number of settings included in this study is a main limitation of the review. Further investigation of the tax equity is needed. FUNDING: None.

The paradigm of tax-reward and tax-punishment strategies in the advancement of public resource management dynamics.

In contemporary society, the effective utilization of public resources remains a subject of significant concern. A common issue arises from defectors seeking to obtain an excessive share of these resources for personal gain, potentially leading to resource depletion. To mitigate this tragedy and ensure sustainable development of resources, implementing mechanisms to either reward those who adhere to distribution rules or penalize those who do not, appears advantageous. We introduce two models: a tax-reward model and a tax-punishment model, to address this issue. Our analysis reveals that in the tax-reward model, the evolutionary trajectory of the system is influenced not only by the tax revenue collected but also by the natural growth rate of the resources. Conversely, the tax-punishment model exhibits distinct characteristics when compared with the tax-reward model, notably the potential for bistability. In such scenarios, the selection of initial conditions is critical, as it can determine the system's path. Furthermore, our study identifies instances where the system lacks stable points, exemplified by a limit cycle phenomenon, underscoring the complexity and dynamism inherent in managing public resources using these models.

The Effect of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Physical and Mental health-Results from the Atlanta Paycheck Plus Experiment.

Policy Points The Paycheck Plus randomized controlled trial tested a fourfold increase in the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) for single adults without dependent children over 3 years in New York and Atlanta. In New York, the intervention improved economic, mental, and physical health outcomes. In Atlanta, it had no economic benefit or impact on physical health and may have worsened mental health. In Atlanta, tax filing and bonus receipt were lower than in the New York arm of the trial, which may explain the lack of economic benefits. Lower mental health scores in the treatment group were driven by disadvantaged men, and the study sample was in good mental health. CONTEXT: The Paycheck Plus experiment examined the effects of an enhanced Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) for single adults on economic and health outcomes in Atlanta, GA and New York City (NYC). The NYC study was completed two years prior to the Atlanta study and found mental and physical benefits for the subgroups that responded best to the economic incentives provided. In this article, we present the findings from the Atlanta study, in which the uptake of the treatment (tax filings and EITC bonus) were lower and economic and health benefits were not observed. METHODS: Paycheck Plus Atlanta was an unblinded randomized controlled trial that assigned n = 3,971 participants to either the standard federal EITC (control group) or an EITC supplement of up to $2,000 (treatment group) for three tax years (2017-2019). Administrative data on employment and earnings were obtained from the Georgia Department of Labor and survey data were used to examine validated measures of health and well-being. FINDINGS: In Atlanta, the treatment group had significantly higher earnings in the first project year but did not have significantly higher cumulative earnings than the control group overall (mean difference = $1,812, 95% CI = -150, 3,774, p = 0.07). The treatment group also had significantly lower scores on two measures of mental health after the intervention was complete: the Patient Health Questionnaire 8 (mean difference = 0.19, 95% CI = 0.06, 0.32, p = 0.005) and the Kessler 6 (mean difference = 0.15, 95% CI = 0.03, 0.27, p = 0.012). Secondary analyses suggested these results were driven by disadvantaged men, but the study sample was in good mental health. CONCLUSIONS: The EITC experiment in Atlanta was not associated with gains in earnings or improvements in physical or mental health.

Effects of red meat taxes and warning labels on food groups selected in a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: High consumption of red and processed meat contributes to both health and environmental harms. Warning labels and taxes for red meat reduce selection of red meat overall, but little is known about how these potential policies affect purchases of subcategories of red meat (e.g., processed versus unprocessed) or of non-red-meat foods (e.g., cheese, pulses) relevant to health and environmental outcomes. This study examined consumer responses to warning labels and taxes for red meat in a randomized controlled trial. METHODS: In October 2021, we recruited 3,518 US adults to complete a shopping task in a naturalistic online grocery store. Participants were randomly assigned to one of four arms: control (no warning labels or tax), warning labels only (health and environmental warning labels appeared next to products containing red meat), tax only (prices of products containing red meat were increased 30%) or combined warning labels + tax. Participants selected items to hypothetically purchase, which we categorized into food groups based on the presence of animal- and plant-source ingredients (e.g., beef, eggs, pulses), meat processing level (e.g., processed pork versus unprocessed pork), and meat species (e.g., beef versus pork). We assessed the effects of the warning labels and tax on selections from each food group. RESULTS: Compared to control, all three interventions led participants to select fewer items with processed meat (driven by reductions in processed pork) and (for the tax and warning labels + tax interventions only) fewer items with unprocessed meat (driven by reductions in unprocessed beef). All three interventions also led participants to select more items containing cheese, while only the combined warning labels + tax intervention led participants to select more items containing processed poultry. Except for an increase in selection of pulses in the tax arm, the interventions did not affect selections of fish or seafood (processed or unprocessed), eggs, or plant-based items (pulses, nuts & seeds, tofu, meat mimics, grains & potatoes, vegetables). CONCLUSIONS: Policies to reduce red meat consumption are also likely to affect consumption of other types of foods that are relevant to both health and environmental outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04716010 on www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov .

Uncovering physical activity trade-offs in transportation policy: A spatial agent-based model of Bogotá, Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Transportation policies can impact health outcomes while simultaneously promoting social equity and environmental sustainability. We developed an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the impacts of fare subsidies and congestion taxes on commuter decision-making and travel patterns. We report effects on mode share, travel time and transport-related physical activity (PA), including the variability of effects by socioeconomic strata (SES), and the trade-offs that may need to be considered in the implementation of these policies in a context with high levels of necessity-based physical activity. METHODS: The ABM design was informed by local stakeholder engagement. The demographic and spatial characteristics of the in-silico city, and its residents, were informed by local surveys and empirical studies. We used ridership and travel time data from the 2019 Bogotá Household Travel Survey to calibrate and validate the model by SES. We then explored the impacts of fare subsidy and congestion tax policy scenarios. RESULTS: Our model reproduced commuting patterns observed in Bogotá, including substantial necessity-based walking for transportation. At the city-level, congestion taxes fractionally reduced car use, including among mid-to-high SES groups but not among low SES commuters. Neither travel times nor physical activity levels were impacted at the city level or by SES. Comparatively, fare subsidies promoted city-level public transportation (PT) ridership, particularly under a 'free-fare' scenario, largely through reductions in walking trips. 'Free fare' policies also led to a large reduction in very long walking times and an overall reduction in the commuting-based attainment of physical activity guidelines. Differential effects were observed by SES, with free fares promoting PT ridership primarily among low-and-middle SES groups. These shifts to PT reduced median walking times among all SES groups, particularly low-SES groups. Moreover, the proportion of low-to-mid SES commuters meeting weekly physical activity recommendations decreased under the 'freefare' policy, with no change observed among high-SES groups. CONCLUSIONS: Transport policies can differentially impact SES-level disparities in necessity-based walking and travel times. Understanding these impacts is critical in shaping transportation policies that balance the dual aims of reducing SES-level disparities in travel time (and time poverty) and the promotion of choice-based physical activity.

Evaluating the impact of sugar-sweetened beverages tax on overweight, obesity, and type 2 diabetes in an affluent Asian setting: A willingness-to-pay survey and simulation analysis.

BACKGROUND: The potential health effects of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been insufficiently examined in Asian contexts. This study aimed to assess the impact of SSB taxation on the prevalence of obesity/overweight and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Hong Kong using a willingness-to-pay (WTP) survey and simulation analysis. METHODS: A random telephone survey was conducted with 1000 adults from May to June 2020. We used a contingent valuation approach to assess individuals' WTP for SSBs under four tax payment scenarios (5%, 10%, 40%, and 50% of the current market price). Based on the WTP, a simulation analysis was conducted to project changes in SSB purchase and associated reductions in the prevalence of obesity/overweight and T2DM over a 10-year simulation period. FINDINGS: When 5% and 10% taxation rates were introduced, approximately one-third of the population were unwilling to maintain their SSB purchase. Our simulation demonstrated a gradual decline in the prevalence of obesity/overweight and diabetes with a more pronounced decrease when higher taxation rates were introduced. 10% taxation resulted in a mean reduction of 1532.7 cases of overweight/obesity per 100 thousand population at the sixth year, while T2DM prevalence decreased by 267.1 (0.3%). CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores the effects of an SSB tax on purchase behaviors and health outcomes in an affluent Asia setting, with a more pronounced influence on adult population. These findings are expected to inform policymakers in making decisions regarding an effective and equitable tax rate on SSBs.

The Challenges of Tobacco Fiscal Policy Implementation in Mexico From the Perspective of Key Actors.

INTRODUCTION: Raising tobacco taxes is considered the most effective strategy to avoid smoking initiation and discourage its use, especially among vulnerable groups. However, few low- and middle-income countries have adopted high tobacco taxes. Raising taxes is, therefore, an opportunity to strengthen and accelerate tobacco control. The objective of this study is to analyze the barriers and facilitators to the tobacco tax increase in Mexico. AIMS AND METHODS: Based on the Governance Analytical Framework, data were generated through 17 in-depth interviews with key intersectoral actors for fiscal policy. The interviews were transcribed and coded according to Hufty's theory of governance. RESULTS: Robust scientific evidence, intersectoral coordination, and the presence of "champions" boosted progress in tobacco control (facilitators). The main barriers were the incomplete implementation of the World Health Organization-Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO-FCTC) and MPOWER package and lack of commitment ("political will") by government decision makers and legislators, misinformation about the effects of tobacco taxes, and strong tobacco industry interference. CONCLUSIONS: Robust evidence is necessary but not sufficient to advance the implementation of the MPOWER (WHO-FCTC) actions. To achieve tobacco tax increases and public policies that protect people from unhealthy products in general, the implementation of policies or legal frameworks against industry interference in the development of public policies is imperative. IMPLICATIONS: By analyzing the barriers and facilitators to increasing the tobacco tax in Mexico, this study identifies two key messages: (1) The need to sensitize legislators and the general population to the problem of smoking not only through epidemiological data but also through testimonies that highlight the life experiences and adversities faced by people who smoke. (2) The need for a regulatory framework to prevent industry interference in public affairs and conflicts of interest. The same framework could be very useful for public health policies to control the consumption of ultra-processed food products or alcohol.

Cigarette Prices and Smoking Experimentation Among Zimbabwean Children: A Survival Analysis of the 2014 Global Youth Tobacco Survey.

INTRODUCTION: Zimbabwe has a smoking prevalence of 11.7% among the adult population (15 years and older). Thus, in the absence of effective tobacco control measures, the economic burden of tobacco use will be aggravated, especially considering the increasing tobacco industry activity in the country. Increasing cigarette prices is one possible strategy to reduce tobacco consumption. This study seeks to examine the relationship between cigarette prices and smoking experimentation among children in Zimbabwe, thereby expanding the evidence base for the likely impact of excise taxes on cigarette demand in low- and middle-income countries. AIMS AND METHODS: A survival analysis using the Zimbabwe 2014 Global Youth Tobacco Survey data. RESULTS: A 10% increase in the price of cigarettes reduces the probability of experimenting with smoking by 9%. Also, children are more likely to experiment with smoking if they have a smoking brother or father who smokes, or see teachers who smoke. The likelihood of experimenting with smoking is higher among boys than girls and is positively associated with age. CONCLUSIONS: There is strong evidence that increasing excise taxes can play an effective role in discouraging children from experimenting with cigarette smoking. Considering the relatively low excise tax burden in Zimbabwe, the government should consider substantially increasing the excise tax burden. IMPLICATIONS: With the number of smokers in low- and middle-income countries expected to increase as the industry intensively expands its market by targeting the youth, increasing excise taxes will play a significant role in preventing children from initiating smoking and help those who are already using tobacco to quit. An increase in the excise tax increases the retail price of tobacco products, making them less affordable, and reduces the demand for them.

Tobacco Control in Denmark: How the Ugly Duckling Turned into a Swan.

INTRODUCTION: The implementation of tobacco control policies has been a neglected topic in tobacco research. A comprehensive Tobacco Action Plan including plain packaging, a point-of-sale display ban, a ban on characterizing flavors (in products other than cigarettes), a strengthening of the promotion and marketing ban, a ban on the sale of novel nicotine products to minors, smoke-and nicotine-free-school hours in all-schools with minors, and a significant increase in tobacco tax, was adopted in Denmark in 2019. AIMS AND METHODS: Eleven people involved or very close to the advocacy process were invited, two did not respond and nine attended our research center. We used the nominal group technique, a consensus method, to identify the most important driving factors for passing the Tobacco Action Plan. RESULTS: The round-robin identified 39 driving factors merged into 13 in the clarification phase. In the ranking phase, participants agreed on seven factors that they perceived have strongly influenced the political will to strengthen national tobacco control comprehensively. The most important factors were national data and evidence, a nationwide alliance with broad partnerships, a strict focus on young people, continuous media coverage, intensive lobbying by many different advocates, making it a community agenda-not a political one, and effective professional campaigns. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings agree with experiences from other countries that significantly improved tobacco control. The Danish strategy, including a nationwide alliance with broad partnerships, had a high influence on the political agenda. IMPLICATIONS: In this study, there was a consensus that seven factors strongly influenced the political will to comprehensively strengthen the national tobacco control in Denmark in a short time: national data and evidence; a nationwide alliance with broad partnerships; a strict focus on children and young people; continuous media coverage; intensive lobbying by many different advocates; making it a community agenda-not a political one, and effective professional campaigns. This is consistent with findings from other countries.

(No) time to be healthy: Optimal policy with time and monetary investments in health.

Time is often an important ingredient of a healthy lifestyle. Starting from this observation, this paper studies optimal public policy concerned with promoting healthy choices taking into account both monetary and time investments in health. Individuals tend to underestimate the importance of their health while making decisions, which makes their investments too low compared to the first-best. While the decentralization of the first-best requires personalized subsidies on both time and monetary investments, this may be problematic due to informational issues. In a second-best world where individual productivities and time investments are publicly unobservable, whereas monetary investments are observable in an anonymous way, the paper considers a policy with a non-linear income tax and a linear subsidy on monetary health investments. If there are no incentive concerns, all other things equal, monetary investments complementary (substitutable) to time investments should be subsidized more (less) than those independent of time use. The addition of incentive concerns demonstrates that optimal subsidization of monetary health investments is less straightforward than one might think. Overall, the time ingredient in the production of health does play a role in the optimal policy design, affecting not only the subsidy on monetary health investments but also the income taxation.

The optimal design of assisted reproductive technologies policies.

This paper studies the optimal fiscal treatment of assisted reproductive technologies (ART) in an economy where individuals differ in their reproductive capacity (or fecundity) and in their wage. We find that the optimal ART tax policy varies with the postulated social welfare criterion. Utilitarianism redistributes only between individuals with unequal fecundity and wages but not between parents and childless individuals. To the opposite, ex post egalitarianism (which gives absolute priority to the worst-off in realized terms) redistributes from individuals with children toward those without children, and from individuals with high fecundity toward those with low fecundity, so as to compensate for both the monetary cost of ART and the disutility from involuntary childlessness resulting from unsuccessful ART investments. Under asymmetric information and in order to solve for the incentive problem, utilitarianism recommends to either tax or subsidize ART investments of low-fecundity-low-productivity individuals at the margin, depending on the degree of complementarity between fecundity and ART in the fertility technology. On the opposite, ex post egalitarianism always recommends marginal taxation of ART.