Metabolic syndrome clusters and the risk of incident stroke: the atherosclerosis risk in communities (ARIC) study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Little is known about the metabolic syndrome (MetS) and the risk of incident stroke. This study is designed to identify particular clusters of MetS components that carry the highest risk of incident stroke. METHODS: We analyzed the public use data from the population-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. At baseline, 14 993 stroke-free middle-aged individuals were followed-up over 9 years for incident stroke. MetS components were defined according to the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute/American Heart Association criteria. Incident stroke was identified using a standardized incident events identification and classification protocol. Proportional hazard models were used to assess the RRs and 95% CIs of ischemic stroke associated with MetS and its different clusters. RESULTS: At baseline, the prevalence of MetS was 39%. The mean age was 54, with 26% blacks and 55% females. The hazard ratio of incident ischemic stroke associated with MetS among women (hazard ratio, 2.41; 95% CI, 1.69 to 3.49) and men (hazard ratio, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.56-2.85) was similar. There was a dose-response relationship between the numbers of MetS components and the risk of incidence stroke. Persons with either elevated blood pressure or elevated fasting glucose in the clusters to form a MetS had the highest risk for incident stroke (hazard ratio, 2.74-4.16 comparing to the reference group) than MetS without these 2 components (hazard ratio,